MLB Prediction System

KPI Player Effects

How each KPI adds or removes a hit, a strikeout, a walk or a home run, per player, against the arm he actually faces

Slate 20261012Games 2Schema kpi_player_effects_v2Built 2026-10-12 18:42Z

What this document measures

Every counting stat below has a KPI on both sides of the matchup, measured on the same denominator: a plate appearance. That is what lets the hitter's reading and the starter's reading be combined instead of listed side by side. The combination is the standard Log5 odds ratio, which is exactly additive in log odds, so the hitter's push and the pitcher's push separate cleanly and the remainder is reported rather than absorbed.

Hits use a derived KPI. Hit rate is not in config/kpi_registry.json: registering it would move the registry hash recorded in the model manifest and fail the live layer closed until a retrain. It is computed with the same strict as-of cutoff and the same shrinkage, stored in its own namespace, and never read by the runtime.

These per-player numbers are measured, not published. The live KPI layer moves team runs and the win probability. The hitter lines in the artifact were then scaled by one club-wide ratio, identical for the leadoff hitter and the ninth bat. The per-hitter columns here are what that single ratio discards.

The whole staff, not only the starter. A hitter takes roughly four in ten of his plate appearances against relievers. Each club's bullpen here is the pregame bullpen: the seven busiest healthy relievers of the last 30 days, the same arms the KPI forecast weighted and the simulation pitched, each sharing the relief work by the batters faced the forecast gave him. The bullpen's workload tonight is the club's real mean staff batters faced minus the starter's projection. The published staff alone holds only the relievers one simulation draw used, so it is shown beside the bullpen for comparison, not used.

Reading a delta. Own skill is measured against the league. The opponent effect is measured against the hitter's own rate, which is the only one that may adjust a published line, because the published line already carries his own skill. Adding both to a published line would count the hitter twice.

Coverage. 36 hitter-versus-starter pairings; 36 have both sides above their sample floor on hits and 36 carry a non-zero hit adjustment. A side below its floor falls back to the league rate and is marked n<floor, which is a stated absence of evidence rather than a measured zero. All four outcome metrics have value documents. Handedness source: model bundle pitcher_hands.json.

Largest per-player movements on the slate

Hitter	Club	Metric	Starter faced (+ bullpen)	Published	KPI adjusted, whole staff	Δ	Hitter band	Pitcher band	Game
Teoscar Hernández	LAD	Strikeouts	Logan Henderson	1.447	1.694	+0.247	Below average	Very good	20261012_LAD@MIL
Shohei Ohtani	LAD	Strikeouts	Logan Henderson	1.279	1.506	+0.227	Average	Very good	20261012_LAD@MIL
Max Muncy	LAD	Strikeouts	Logan Henderson	1.257	1.479	+0.222	Below average	Very good	20261012_LAD@MIL
Garrett Mitchell	MIL	Strikeouts	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	1.504	1.704	+0.200	Poor	Good	20261012_LAD@MIL
Jackson Chourio	MIL	Strikeouts	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	1.282	1.472	+0.190	Average	Good	20261012_LAD@MIL
Freddie Freeman	LAD	Strikeouts	Logan Henderson	0.953	1.141	+0.188	Good	Very good	20261012_LAD@MIL
Will Smith	LAD	Strikeouts	Logan Henderson	0.937	1.123	+0.187	Good	Very good	20261012_LAD@MIL
Andy Pages	LAD	Strikeouts	Logan Henderson	0.968	1.153	+0.185	Average	Very good	20261012_LAD@MIL
Christian Yelich	MIL	Strikeouts	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	1.265	1.444	+0.179	Below average	Good	20261012_LAD@MIL
Jake Bauers	MIL	Strikeouts	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	1.250	1.426	+0.177	Below average	Good	20261012_LAD@MIL
Tommy Edman	LAD	Strikeouts	Logan Henderson	0.924	1.099	+0.175	Average	Very good	20261012_LAD@MIL
Brice Turang	MIL	Strikeouts	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	1.189	1.363	+0.173	Below average	Good	20261012_LAD@MIL
Jo Adell	CLE	Strikeouts	Drew Rasmussen	1.109	1.274	+0.165	Average	Good	20261012_CLE@TB
Kyle Tucker	LAD	Strikeouts	Logan Henderson	0.812	0.974	+0.162	Good	Very good	20261012_LAD@MIL
Angel Martínez	CLE	Strikeouts	Drew Rasmussen	1.004	1.158	+0.153	Average	Good	20261012_CLE@TB
David Hamilton	MIL	Strikeouts	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	0.988	1.138	+0.150	Average	Good	20261012_LAD@MIL
Mookie Betts	LAD	Strikeouts	Logan Henderson	0.684	0.833	+0.148	Very good	Very good	20261012_LAD@MIL
Patrick Bailey	CLE	Strikeouts	Drew Rasmussen	1.024	1.169	+0.145	Below average	Good	20261012_CLE@TB
Cooper Pratt	MIL	Strikeouts	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	0.869	1.008	+0.139	Good	Good	20261012_LAD@MIL
Nathaniel Lowe	CLE	Strikeouts	Drew Rasmussen	0.910	1.046	+0.137	Average	Good	20261012_CLE@TB

Per game

Club Player

20261012_CLE@TB — team layer withheld (values_fresh); runs moved away 0.7773 / home 0.0862

Foster Griffin (LHP, 20.3 BF)
H 0.2244 Below average · SO 0.2193 Average · BB 0.0672 Very good · HR 0.0313 Average

Drew Rasmussen (RHP, 22.8 BF)
H 0.1960 Good · SO 0.2559 Good · BB 0.0557 Very good · HR 0.0247 Good

Warnings: away published staff projects 27.7696 batters faced, outside the real p10-p90 band of 30-45; the exposure here uses the club's real 37.23 per game instead

CLE hitters vs Drew Rasmussen and the bullpen

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to CLE hitter lines. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Steven Kwan	CF	Drew Rasmussen + bullpen	4.23	0.957 → 0.879	-0.078	0.431 → 0.509	+0.077	0.370 → 0.261	-0.109	0.051 → 0.045	-0.006

José Ramírez	3B	Drew Rasmussen + bullpen	4.35	0.830 → 0.760	-0.070	0.680 → 0.796	+0.116	0.360 → 0.253	-0.108	0.119 → 0.106	-0.013

Chase DeLauter	RF	Drew Rasmussen + bullpen	4.18	0.909 → 0.835	-0.074	0.672 → 0.785	+0.113	0.362 → 0.254	-0.109	0.124 → 0.111	-0.014

Jo Adell	DH	Drew Rasmussen + bullpen	4.08	0.816 → 0.749	-0.068	1.109 → 1.274	+0.165	0.265 → 0.183	-0.082	0.141 → 0.126	-0.015

Nathaniel Lowe	1B	Drew Rasmussen + bullpen	3.72	0.761 → 0.698	-0.063	0.910 → 1.046	+0.137	0.275 → 0.192	-0.083	0.137 → 0.122	-0.015

Angel Martínez	LF	Drew Rasmussen + bullpen	3.83	0.808 → 0.742	-0.066	1.004 → 1.158	+0.153	0.132 → 0.091	-0.041	0.158 → 0.141	-0.017

Travis Bazzana	2B	Drew Rasmussen + bullpen	3.71	0.728 → 0.667	-0.061	0.837 → 0.967	+0.130	0.284 → 0.199	-0.085	0.111 → 0.099	-0.012

Patrick Bailey	C	Drew Rasmussen + bullpen	3.61	0.661 → 0.605	-0.056	1.024 → 1.169	+0.145	0.252 → 0.175	-0.077	0.120 → 0.107	-0.013

Brayan Rocchio	SS	Drew Rasmussen + bullpen	3.42	0.693 → 0.636	-0.057	0.562 → 0.657	+0.095	0.226 → 0.157	-0.070	0.085 → 0.076	-0.009

CLE starter against the TB lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Foster Griffin	Starter	TB	20.34	5.063 → 5.353	+0.290	3.982 → 3.567	-0.415	1.309 → 1.173	-0.135	0.280 → 0.267	-0.013

CLE bullpen: the full relief corps (7 arms)

Exposure. Starter 20.3 batters faced, bullpen 16.9 (45.4% of the game), from the club's real 37.2 staff batters faced per game over 19 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 26.8% across 1 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Joey Cantillo	Long Reliever	pregame bullpen, published staff	60	4	26.3%	4.44
Tim Herrin	Reliever	pregame bullpen	35	9	14.5%	2.44
Erik Sabrowski	Reliever	pregame bullpen	37	10	13.1%	2.22
Shawn Armstrong	Reliever	pregame bullpen	19	6	12.5%	2.11
Tanner Bibee	Reliever	pregame bullpen	3	1	11.8%	1.99
Hunter Gaddis	Reliever	pregame bullpen	53	13	11.6%	1.96
Daniel Espino	Reliever	pregame bullpen	8	3	10.2%	1.71

CLE relievers against the TB lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Joey Cantillo	Long Reliever	TB (26% of relief)	4.44	0.716 → 0.758	+0.042	2.074 → 1.864	-0.209	0.704 → 0.634	-0.070	0.000 → 0.000	0

Tim Herrin	Reliever	TB (14% of relief)	2.44	0.496 → 0.525	+0.029	0.553 → 0.496	-0.057	0.260 → 0.234	-0.026	0.066 → 0.063	-0.003

Erik Sabrowski	Reliever	TB (13% of relief)	2.22	0.403 → 0.428	+0.025	0.742 → 0.675	-0.067	0.284 → 0.256	-0.028	0.057 → 0.055	-0.003

Shawn Armstrong	Reliever	TB (13% of relief)	2.11	0.439 → 0.464	+0.026	0.460 → 0.412	-0.048	0.221 → 0.199	-0.022	0.059 → 0.056	-0.003

Tanner Bibee	Reliever	TB (12% of relief)	1.99	0.443 → 0.468	+0.025	0.384 → 0.343	-0.041	0.147 → 0.132	-0.015	0.069 → 0.066	-0.003

Hunter Gaddis	Reliever	TB (12% of relief)	1.96	0.420 → 0.444	+0.024	0.435 → 0.390	-0.045	0.172 → 0.155	-0.018	0.058 → 0.055	-0.003

Daniel Espino	Reliever	TB (10% of relief)	1.71	0.372 → 0.393	+0.021	0.379 → 0.340	-0.039	0.152 → 0.137	-0.015	0.052 → 0.050	-0.002

TB hitters vs Foster Griffin and the bullpen

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to TB hitter lines. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Yandy Díaz	DH	Foster Griffin + bullpen	4.36	1.139 → 1.139	+0.001	0.648 → 0.671	+0.024	0.305 → 0.286	-0.019	0.150 → 0.148	-0.002

Jonathan Aranda	1B	Foster Griffin + bullpen	4.24	0.938 → 0.939	+0.001	1.047 → 1.081	+0.034	0.378 → 0.354	-0.024	0.141 → 0.139	-0.002

Junior Caminero	3B	Foster Griffin + bullpen	4.08	0.974 → 0.975	+0.001	0.728 → 0.754	+0.025	0.412 → 0.387	-0.026	0.223 → 0.220	-0.003

Ryan Vilade	RF	Foster Griffin + bullpen	3.78	0.774 → 0.775	0	0.880 → 0.908	+0.029	0.290 → 0.272	-0.018	0.148 → 0.147	-0.002

Jonny DeLuca	CF	Foster Griffin + bullpen	3.88	0.992 → 0.993	+0.001	0.841 → 0.869	+0.028	0.188 → 0.176	-0.012	0.130 → 0.129	-0.002

Chandler Simpson	LF	Foster Griffin + bullpen	3.89	0.910 → 0.910	0	0.392 → 0.407	+0.015	0.141 → 0.132	-0.009	0.039 → 0.038	0

Nick Fortes	C	Foster Griffin + bullpen	3.28	0.822 → 0.822	0	0.515 → 0.534	+0.019	0.147 → 0.138	-0.009	0.089 → 0.088	-0.001

Jorge Mateo	2B	Foster Griffin + bullpen	3.38	0.781 → 0.782	+0.001	1.016 → 1.047	+0.030	0.177 → 0.166	-0.011	0.102 → 0.101	-0.001

Taylor Walls	SS	Foster Griffin + bullpen	3.45	0.730 → 0.730	0	0.828 → 0.855	+0.027	0.312 → 0.293	-0.019	0.056 → 0.055	-0.001

TB starter against the CLE lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Drew Rasmussen	Starter	CLE	22.76	3.836 → 3.905	+0.070	5.655 → 4.817	-0.838	1.264 → 1.256	-0.008	0.272 → 0.257	-0.015

TB bullpen: the full relief corps (7 arms)

Exposure. Starter 22.8 batters faced, bullpen 12.9 (36.1% of the game), from the club's real 35.6 staff batters faced per game over 18 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 31.1% across 2 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Griffin Jax	Reliever	pregame bullpen	8	1	24.2%	3.11
Ian Seymour	Long Reliever	pregame bullpen, published staff	16	3	21.7%	2.79
Kevin Kelly	Reliever	pregame bullpen	23	7	18.1%	2.33
Cam Booser	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	pregame bullpen, published staff	22	8	16.2%	2.09
Bryan Baker	Reliever	pregame bullpen	30	8	16.0%	2.06
Steven Matz	Reliever	pregame bullpen	26	6	1.9%	0.24
Cole Sulser	Reliever	pregame bullpen	27	7	1.8%	0.23

TB relievers against the CLE lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Griffin Jax	Reliever	CLE (24% of relief)	3.11	0.653 → 0.665	+0.012	0.773 → 0.658	-0.116	0.253 → 0.251	-0.002	0.098 → 0.092	-0.005

Ian Seymour	Long Reliever	CLE (22% of relief)	2.79	1.326 → 1.350	+0.024	1.951 → 1.669	-0.282	0.433 → 0.430	-0.003	0.225 → 0.213	-0.012

Kevin Kelly	Reliever	CLE (18% of relief)	2.33	0.483 → 0.492	+0.009	0.524 → 0.444	-0.080	0.134 → 0.133	-0.001	0.063 → 0.059	-0.003

Cam Booser	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	CLE (16% of relief)	2.09	0.352 → 0.358	+0.006	0.651 → 0.556	-0.095	0.120 → 0.119	-0.001	0.064 → 0.060	-0.004

Bryan Baker	Reliever	CLE (16% of relief)	2.06	0.379 → 0.386	+0.007	0.514 → 0.437	-0.077	0.185 → 0.184	-0.001	0.052 → 0.050	-0.003

Steven Matz	Reliever	CLE (2% of relief)	0.24	0.053 → 0.054	+0.001	0.045 → 0.038	-0.007	0.019 → 0.019	0	0.009 → 0.008	-0.001

Cole Sulser	Reliever	CLE (2% of relief)	0.23	0.051 → 0.052	+0.001	0.054 → 0.046	-0.008	0.018 → 0.018	0	0.007 → 0.007	0

20261012_LAD@MIL — team layer withheld (values_fresh); runs moved away -0.1477 / home 0.2629

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP, 24.7 BF)
H 0.1839 Very good · SO 0.2542 Good · BB 0.0670 Very good · HR 0.0290 Average

Logan Henderson (RHP, 19.6 BF)
H 0.1902 Very good · SO 0.2821 Very good · BB 0.0616 Very good · HR 0.0341 Below average

LAD hitters vs Logan Henderson and the bullpen

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to LAD hitter lines. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Mookie Betts	SS	Logan Henderson + bullpen	4.22	0.908 → 0.824	-0.084	0.684 → 0.833	+0.148	0.368 → 0.311	-0.057	0.149 → 0.150	+0.001

Freddie Freeman	1B	Logan Henderson + bullpen	4.33	0.894 → 0.813	-0.082	0.953 → 1.141	+0.188	0.394 → 0.334	-0.060	0.122 → 0.122	0

Teoscar Hernández	LF	Logan Henderson + bullpen	4.10	0.857 → 0.777	-0.079	1.447 → 1.694	+0.247	0.310 → 0.262	-0.048	0.128 → 0.129	0

Shohei Ohtani	DH	Logan Henderson + bullpen	4.22	0.801 → 0.727	-0.074	1.279 → 1.506	+0.227	0.458 → 0.390	-0.069	0.175 → 0.175	+0.001

Will Smith	C	Logan Henderson + bullpen	4.02	0.786 → 0.713	-0.074	0.937 → 1.123	+0.187	0.399 → 0.339	-0.060	0.122 → 0.122	0

Max Muncy	3B	Logan Henderson + bullpen	4.04	0.775 → 0.702	-0.073	1.257 → 1.479	+0.222	0.416 → 0.353	-0.063	0.202 → 0.203	+0.001

Andy Pages	CF	Logan Henderson + bullpen	3.76	0.768 → 0.698	-0.071	0.968 → 1.153	+0.185	0.326 → 0.276	-0.050	0.128 → 0.128	0

Kyle Tucker	RF	Logan Henderson + bullpen	3.76	0.701 → 0.634	-0.067	0.812 → 0.974	+0.162	0.380 → 0.323	-0.057	0.103 → 0.104	0

Tommy Edman	2B	Logan Henderson + bullpen	3.54	0.698 → 0.633	-0.066	0.924 → 1.099	+0.175	0.254 → 0.214	-0.040	0.093 → 0.093	0

LAD starter against the MIL lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Starter	MIL	24.65	4.187 → 4.314	+0.127	6.700 → 6.762	+0.061	1.610 → 1.868	+0.258	0.690 → 0.636	-0.053

LAD bullpen: the full relief corps (7 arms)

Exposure. Starter 24.7 batters faced, bullpen 10.8 (30.5% of the game), from the club's real 35.5 staff batters faced per game over 20 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 30.7% across 3 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Edgardo Henriquez	Reliever	pregame bullpen	17	3	23.4%	2.53
Edwin Díaz	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	pregame bullpen, published staff	27	8	17.9%	1.94
Tanner Scott	Reliever	pregame bullpen	39	10	14.4%	1.56
Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	pregame bullpen, published staff	31	10	14.0%	1.52
Evan Phillips	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	pregame bullpen, published staff	24	8	13.3%	1.44
Brock Stewart	Reliever	pregame bullpen	16	6	11.6%	1.25
Kris Bubic	Reliever	pregame bullpen	23	6	5.3%	0.58

LAD relievers against the MIL lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Edgardo Henriquez	Reliever	MIL (23% of relief)	2.53	0.475 → 0.490	+0.014	0.697 → 0.703	+0.006	0.247 → 0.285	+0.038	0.053 → 0.049	-0.004

Edwin Díaz	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	MIL (18% of relief)	1.94	0.913 → 0.940	+0.027	1.366 → 1.379	+0.013	0.370 → 0.428	+0.058	0.108 → 0.100	-0.008

Tanner Scott	Reliever	MIL (14% of relief)	1.56	0.319 → 0.329	+0.009	0.469 → 0.473	+0.004	0.111 → 0.128	+0.018	0.039 → 0.036	-0.003

Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	MIL (14% of relief)	1.52	0.452 → 0.466	+0.014	1.259 → 1.270	+0.011	0.488 → 0.562	+0.073	0.052 → 0.048	-0.004

Evan Phillips	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	MIL (13% of relief)	1.44	0.524 → 0.539	+0.015	0.895 → 0.904	+0.009	0.176 → 0.203	+0.027	0.100 → 0.092	-0.008

Brock Stewart	Reliever	MIL (12% of relief)	1.25	0.271 → 0.279	+0.008	0.276 → 0.279	+0.003	0.111 → 0.128	+0.017	0.038 → 0.035	-0.003

Kris Bubic	Reliever	MIL (5% of relief)	0.58	0.115 → 0.118	+0.003	0.139 → 0.140	+0.001	0.060 → 0.069	+0.009	0.015 → 0.014	-0.001

MIL hitters vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto and the bullpen

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to MIL hitter lines. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Jackson Chourio	LF	Yoshinobu Yamamoto + bullpen	4.38	0.968 → 0.849	-0.119	1.282 → 1.472	+0.190	0.301 → 0.253	-0.047	0.175 → 0.162	-0.012

Brice Turang	2B	Yoshinobu Yamamoto + bullpen	4.22	0.811 → 0.710	-0.102	1.189 → 1.363	+0.173	0.430 → 0.364	-0.066	0.113 → 0.105	-0.008

William Contreras	C	Yoshinobu Yamamoto + bullpen	4.16	0.865 → 0.757	-0.108	0.735 → 0.858	+0.123	0.369 → 0.311	-0.058	0.114 → 0.106	-0.008

Jake Bauers	1B	Yoshinobu Yamamoto + bullpen	4.09	0.673 → 0.588	-0.085	1.250 → 1.426	+0.177	0.500 → 0.426	-0.074	0.140 → 0.130	-0.010

Christian Yelich	DH	Yoshinobu Yamamoto + bullpen	4.10	0.791 → 0.690	-0.101	1.265 → 1.444	+0.179	0.407 → 0.344	-0.063	0.093 → 0.087	-0.007

Garrett Mitchell	CF	Yoshinobu Yamamoto + bullpen	3.91	0.671 → 0.586	-0.085	1.504 → 1.704	+0.200	0.366 → 0.310	-0.057	0.080 → 0.074	-0.006

Cooper Pratt	SS	Yoshinobu Yamamoto + bullpen	3.65	0.789 → 0.690	-0.099	0.869 → 1.008	+0.139	0.271 → 0.229	-0.043	0.071 → 0.066	-0.005

Sal Frelick	RF	Yoshinobu Yamamoto + bullpen	3.59	0.734 → 0.640	-0.094	0.492 → 0.579	+0.087	0.288 → 0.242	-0.045	0.062 → 0.058	-0.004

David Hamilton	3B	Yoshinobu Yamamoto + bullpen	3.46	0.676 → 0.590	-0.086	0.988 → 1.138	+0.150	0.272 → 0.229	-0.043	0.061 → 0.057	-0.004

MIL starter against the LAD lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Logan Henderson	Starter	LAD	19.62	3.435 → 3.551	+0.116	5.329 → 4.858	-0.471	1.320 → 1.496	+0.176	0.586 → 0.671	+0.085

MIL bullpen: the full relief corps (7 arms)

Exposure. Starter 19.6 batters faced, bullpen 17.5 (47.1% of the game), from the club's real 37.1 staff batters faced per game over 18 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 43.6% across 3 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
JoJo Romero	Long Reliever	pregame bullpen, published staff	37	8	24.6%	4.29
DL Hall	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	pregame bullpen, published staff	53	10	19.7%	3.44
Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	pregame bullpen, published staff	32	9	19.4%	3.40
Abner Uribe	Reliever	pregame bullpen	51	12	14.4%	2.51
Trevor Megill	Reliever	pregame bullpen	39	10	13.4%	2.35
Aaron Ashby	Reliever	pregame bullpen	60	10	6.6%	1.16
Chad Patrick	Reliever	pregame bullpen	28	6	1.9%	0.33

MIL relievers against the LAD lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
JoJo Romero	Long Reliever	LAD (25% of relief)	4.29	1.008 → 1.041	+0.033	1.372 → 1.242	-0.130	0.369 → 0.418	+0.048	0.184 → 0.211	+0.027

DL Hall	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	LAD (20% of relief)	3.44	0.575 → 0.595	+0.020	1.152 → 1.047	-0.105	0.774 → 0.870	+0.096	0.078 → 0.089	+0.011

Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	LAD (19% of relief)	3.40	1.033 → 1.066	+0.033	0.760 → 0.686	-0.074	0.412 → 0.466	+0.053	0.059 → 0.068	+0.009

Abner Uribe	Reliever	LAD (14% of relief)	2.51	0.507 → 0.524	+0.017	0.638 → 0.579	-0.058	0.207 → 0.234	+0.027	0.061 → 0.070	+0.009

Trevor Megill	Reliever	LAD (13% of relief)	2.35	0.454 → 0.469	+0.015	0.631 → 0.575	-0.057	0.170 → 0.193	+0.022	0.050 → 0.057	+0.007

Aaron Ashby	Reliever	LAD (7% of relief)	1.16	0.235 → 0.243	+0.008	0.333 → 0.304	-0.029	0.121 → 0.136	+0.015	0.029 → 0.033	+0.004

Chad Patrick	Reliever	LAD (2% of relief)	0.33	0.066 → 0.068	+0.002	0.071 → 0.064	-0.007	0.035 → 0.039	+0.004	0.009 → 0.011	+0.001

Measured from published artifacts and stored KPI values. Nothing recomputed. Per-player adjustments are a measurement of the catalog, not the published line.