MLB Prediction System

Game Forensics

2026-10-12 · per game, per club, per hitter

slate 2026-10-12games 2

Per game

Every stage, every club edge

Each game expands to show the four forecast stages, the gates, the club-level KPI edges the model consumed and both lineups with their strongest readings. Composite z averages a hitter's KPI standard scores; a positive number means above the qualified-population mean on balance.

CLE @ TB

Stage	Away runs	Home runs	Home win	Note
Production baseline	4.000	5.000	0.593	what the system would have published
KPI-only forecast	6.286	5.227	0.638	44 KPI features alone, no baseline input
Blended	4.777	5.086	0.593	at the fitted weights
Published	4	5	0.579	after rounding and reconciliation

NOT applied. Failed gates: values_fresh. Lineup coverage CLE 1.000, TB 0.983. Value age 15 days. Gates passed 5/6.

Club KPI edges

KPI	CLE	TB	Edge (H-A)	A spread	H spread
batter_barrel_rate_vs_breaking	-0.435	-0.114	+0.322	0.7367	0.9619
batter_barrel_rate_vs_fastball	-0.586	-0.525	+0.060	0.7222	1.1002
batter_barrel_rate_vs_lhp	-0.408	-0.636	-0.228	0.8288	1.0607
batter_barrel_rate_vs_offspeed	-0.472	-0.460	+0.011	1.031	0.7761
batter_barrel_rate_vs_rhp	-0.571	-0.311	+0.260	0.6969	0.9417
batter_bat_speed	-0.328	+0.079	+0.407	1.4401	1.7907
batter_contact_rate_vs_breaking	+0.349	+0.831	+0.482	1.4508	1.2349
batter_contact_xwoba	-0.276	-0.383	-0.107	0.7658	1.121
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_breaking	-0.288	-0.032	+0.256	0.9236	1.1772
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_fastball	-0.144	-0.528	-0.385	0.7043	1.0627
batter_exit_velocity_vs_fastball	-0.124	-0.424	-0.301	0.9165	1.504
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball	+0.498	-0.625	-1.123	0.5721	1.3077
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_slider	+0.025	-0.653	-0.678	0.5665	1.0563
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking	-0.274	-0.113	+0.161	1.1034	1.5247
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball	-0.396	-0.422	-0.027	1.4056	1.5169
batter_home_run_rate	-0.244	-0.217	+0.026	0.8343	1.3599
batter_strikeout_rate	+0.598	+0.381	-0.217	0.9662	1.1005
batter_walk_rate	-0.036	-0.420	-0.384	1.1363	0.9845
batter_whiff_rate_vs_breaking	+0.719	+0.612	-0.108	1.0989	1.0816
batter_whiff_rate_vs_fastball	+0.674	+0.548	-0.126	0.8398	0.8421
batter_whiff_rate_vs_lhp	+0.563	+0.766	+0.203	0.9542	0.8055
batter_whiff_rate_vs_offspeed	+0.774	+0.393	-0.382	0.9144	1.0682
batter_whiff_rate_vs_rhp	+0.856	+0.518	-0.338	0.9775	0.9702
pitcher_barrel_rate_allowed	-0.525	+1.293	+1.818	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_lhh	-0.794	+1.151	+1.944	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_rhh	-0.204	+0.789	+0.994	-	-
pitcher_contact_xwoba_allowed	-0.712	+0.816	+1.528	-	-
pitcher_ground_ball_rate_induced	+0.483	+0.392	-0.091	-	-
pitcher_hard_hit_rate_allowed	+0.449	+1.555	+1.105	-	-
pitcher_home_run_rate_allowed	-0.289	+1.119	+1.409	-	-
pitcher_release_speed	-1.671	+1.126	+2.797	-	-
pitcher_strikeout_rate	-0.140	+0.770	+0.910	-	-
pitcher_walk_rate	+1.346	+2.027	+0.681	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate	-0.662	-0.104	+0.558	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_breaking	-0.713	-1.046	-0.333	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_fastball	-0.275	+1.035	+1.310	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_lhh	-0.087	+0.333	+0.419	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_rhh	-0.880	-0.683	+0.198	-	-

Lineups and their strongest readings

Batter	Pos	Proj PA	Composite z	Three strongest KPI readings
CLE lineup vs Drew Rasmussen
1. Steven Kwan	CF	4.65	-0.344	hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-4.00), bat_speed Poor (-3.47), contact_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+3.09)
2. José Ramírez	3B	4.55	+0.275	whiff_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+2.21), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+1.87), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.70)
3. Chase DeLauter	RF	4.45	+0.480	contact_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+2.31), whiff_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+1.80), whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+1.62)
4. Jo Adell	DH	4.35	+0.156	bat_speed Very good (+2.16), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+1.68), walk_rate Poor (-1.40)
5. Nathaniel Lowe	1B	4.25	+0.251	whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Good (+1.13), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Good (+1.01), bat_speed Good (+0.99)
6. Angel Martínez	LF	4.15	+0.078	walk_rate Poor (-2.05), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Good (+1.16), barrel_rate_vs_breaking Good (+1.12)
7. Travis Bazzana	2B	4.05	-0.267	hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-1.41), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Poor (-1.41), barrel_rate_vs_breaking Below average (-1.09)
8. Patrick Bailey	C	3.98	+0.033	ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Good (+0.95), strikeout_rate Below average (-0.88), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Good (+0.84)
9. Brayan Rocchio	SS	3.90	-0.543	barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Poor (-1.60), barrel_rate_vs_rhp Poor (-1.47), barrel_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-1.35)
TB lineup vs Foster Griffin
1. Yandy Díaz	DH	4.65	+0.661	contact_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+3.15), whiff_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+2.60), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.15)
2. Jonathan Aranda	1B	4.55	+0.634	whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+1.78), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.75), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Very good (+1.58)
3. Junior Caminero	3B	4.45	+0.935	bat_speed Very good (+3.05), home_run_rate Very good (+2.48), exit_velocity_vs_fastball Very good (+2.08)
4. Ryan Vilade	RF	4.35	+0.147	bat_speed Very good (+1.52), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Good (+1.05), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Good (+0.72)
5. Jonny DeLuca	CF	4.25	-0.443	walk_rate Poor (-1.41), barrel_rate_vs_lhp Poor (-1.37), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-1.30)
6. Chandler Simpson	LF	4.15	-1.022	hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-3.60), bat_speed Poor (-3.27), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-3.24)
7. Nick Fortes	C	4.05	-0.521	exit_velocity_vs_fastball Poor (-1.83), walk_rate Poor (-1.67), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.58)
8. Jorge Mateo	2B	3.98	-0.470	whiff_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-1.52), whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Poor (-1.40), strikeout_rate Below average (-1.39)
9. Taylor Walls	SS	3.90	-0.910	hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-2.81), bat_speed Poor (-2.31), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Poor (-1.91)

LAD @ MIL

Stage	Away runs	Home runs	Home win	Note
Production baseline	4.000	3.000	0.495	what the system would have published
KPI-only forecast	3.566	3.692	0.657	44 KPI features alone, no baseline input
Blended	3.852	3.263	0.495	at the fitted weights
Published	4	3	0.495	after rounding and reconciliation

NOT applied. Failed gates: values_fresh. Lineup coverage LAD 0.994, MIL 1.000. Value age 15 days. Gates passed 5/6.

Club KPI edges

KPI	LAD	MIL	Edge (H-A)	A spread	H spread
batter_barrel_rate_vs_breaking	+0.007	+0.275	+0.268	0.5884	0.7263
batter_barrel_rate_vs_fastball	+0.640	+0.089	-0.551	1.0501	1.0426
batter_barrel_rate_vs_lhp	+0.550	-0.144	-0.695	0.7375	0.9043
batter_barrel_rate_vs_offspeed	+0.576	-0.102	-0.678	0.904	0.9612
batter_barrel_rate_vs_rhp	+0.409	+0.245	-0.165	0.9621	0.9815
batter_bat_speed	-0.054	+0.081	+0.134	0.575	1.4162
batter_contact_rate_vs_breaking	-0.018	+0.307	+0.325	0.9499	1.0887
batter_contact_xwoba	+0.673	+0.391	-0.282	1.0153	1.2531
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_breaking	+0.194	+0.404	+0.210	0.761	1.1313
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_fastball	+0.824	+0.290	-0.534	1.1149	1.2399
batter_exit_velocity_vs_fastball	+0.632	+0.056	-0.576	0.7096	1.4548
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball	+0.471	-0.727	-1.198	0.9693	0.6774
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_slider	+0.733	-0.724	-1.456	0.8428	1.104
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking	-0.058	+0.325	+0.382	0.9187	1.2164
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball	+0.552	+0.183	-0.369	0.8229	1.2291
batter_home_run_rate	+0.457	-0.339	-0.795	0.7683	0.911
batter_strikeout_rate	+0.368	-0.056	-0.425	0.8355	1.0857
batter_walk_rate	+0.487	+0.600	+0.113	0.7457	0.951
batter_whiff_rate_vs_breaking	+0.156	+0.093	-0.063	0.9349	1.1334
batter_whiff_rate_vs_fastball	+0.259	-0.049	-0.307	0.8894	0.9748
batter_whiff_rate_vs_lhp	+0.216	+0.102	-0.114	1.1983	0.6265
batter_whiff_rate_vs_offspeed	+0.206	+0.172	-0.034	0.8871	1.2258
batter_whiff_rate_vs_rhp	+0.222	+0.060	-0.162	0.8617	1.234
pitcher_barrel_rate_allowed	+0.917	-0.451	-1.369	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_lhh	+0.845	-0.742	-1.587	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_rhh	+0.534	+0.149	-0.385	-	-
pitcher_contact_xwoba_allowed	+1.337	+0.715	-0.623	-	-
pitcher_ground_ball_rate_induced	+1.147	-1.527	-2.674	-	-
pitcher_hard_hit_rate_allowed	+0.951	+0.396	-0.555	-	-
pitcher_home_run_rate_allowed	+0.213	-0.881	-1.095	-	-
pitcher_release_speed	+0.542	-0.589	-1.131	-	-
pitcher_strikeout_rate	+0.727	+1.421	+0.694	-	-
pitcher_walk_rate	+1.354	+1.675	+0.321	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate	+0.560	+0.017	-0.543	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_breaking	-0.323	+0.000	+0.323	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_fastball	+0.865	-0.172	-1.037	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_lhh	-0.178	+0.161	+0.339	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_rhh	+1.214	-0.195	-1.408	-	-

Lineups and their strongest readings

Batter	Pos	Proj PA	Composite z	Three strongest KPI readings
LAD lineup vs Logan Henderson
1. Mookie Betts	SS	4.65	+0.592	whiff_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+2.45), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.95), strikeout_rate Very good (+1.91)
2. Freddie Freeman	1B	4.55	+0.191	whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+1.33), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Good (+1.04), contact_xwoba Good (+0.83)
3. Teoscar Hernández	LF	4.45	+0.079	whiff_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-1.43), barrel_rate_vs_lhp Good (+1.34), contact_xwoba Good (+1.24)
4. Shohei Ohtani	DH	4.35	+0.902	contact_xwoba_vs_fastball Very good (+2.84), contact_xwoba Very good (+2.75), barrel_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+2.67)
5. Will Smith	C	4.25	+0.775	ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+2.08), contact_xwoba_vs_fastball Very good (+1.81), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Very good (+1.70)
6. Max Muncy	3B	4.15	+0.515	ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.89), contact_xwoba_vs_fastball Very good (+1.71), barrel_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.67)
7. Andy Pages	CF	4.05	+0.387	ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Very good (+1.31), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Good (+0.90), whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Good (+0.79)
8. Kyle Tucker	RF	3.98	+0.162	ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Very good (+2.24), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Poor (-1.42), walk_rate Very good (+1.35)
9. Tommy Edman	2B	3.90	-0.353	hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Below average (-1.22), barrel_rate_vs_breaking Below average (-0.93), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Below average (-0.92)
MIL lineup vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto
1. Jackson Chourio	LF	4.65	+0.527	exit_velocity_vs_fastball Very good (+1.55), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.49), barrel_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+1.44)
2. Brice Turang	2B	4.55	+0.313	hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.68), walk_rate Very good (+1.56), contact_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.39)
3. William Contreras	C	4.45	+0.312	contact_rate_vs_breaking Good (+1.28), strikeout_rate Good (+1.24), exit_velocity_vs_fastball Good (+0.97)
4. Jake Bauers	1B	4.35	+0.658	walk_rate Very good (+2.75), contact_xwoba Very good (+1.77), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.68)
5. Christian Yelich	DH	4.25	-0.272	ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.10), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Poor (-1.84), whiff_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-1.59)
6. Garrett Mitchell	CF	4.15	+0.227	contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Very good (+2.32), whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Poor (-2.25), contact_xwoba Very good (+2.20)
7. Cooper Pratt	SS	4.05	-0.267	hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Below average (-1.14), home_run_rate Below average (-1.13), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Below average (-1.07)
8. Sal Frelick	RF	3.98	-0.261	whiff_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+2.49), whiff_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+2.35), whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+2.15)
9. David Hamilton	3B	3.90	-0.831	exit_velocity_vs_fastball Poor (-2.90), bat_speed Poor (-2.52), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Poor (-2.12)

Edge is home club minus away club on that KPI, in standard deviations, after plate-appearance weighting. Spread is the dispersion inside a club, which a mean alone discards and which is roughly three times larger than the between-game variation of the mean itself.
generated 2026-10-12T18:42:08.324495+00:00 · kpi_slate_report_v3