MLB Prediction System

KPI Player Effects

How each KPI adds or removes a hit, a strikeout, a walk or a home run, per player, against the arm he actually faces

Slate 20261008Games 2Schema kpi_player_effects_v2Built 2026-10-09 09:11Z

What this document measures

Every counting stat below has a KPI on both sides of the matchup, measured on the same denominator: a plate appearance. That is what lets the hitter's reading and the starter's reading be combined instead of listed side by side. The combination is the standard Log5 odds ratio, which is exactly additive in log odds, so the hitter's push and the pitcher's push separate cleanly and the remainder is reported rather than absorbed.

Hits use a derived KPI. Hit rate is not in config/kpi_registry.json: registering it would move the registry hash recorded in the model manifest and fail the live layer closed until a retrain. It is computed with the same strict as-of cutoff and the same shrinkage, stored in its own namespace, and never read by the runtime.

These per-player numbers are measured, not published. The live KPI layer moves team runs and the win probability. The hitter lines in the artifact were then scaled by one club-wide ratio, identical for the leadoff hitter and the ninth bat. The per-hitter columns here are what that single ratio discards.

The whole staff, not only the starter. A hitter takes roughly four in ten of his plate appearances against relievers. Each club's bullpen here is the pregame bullpen: the seven busiest healthy relievers of the last 30 days, the same arms the KPI forecast weighted and the simulation pitched, each sharing the relief work by the batters faced the forecast gave him. The bullpen's workload tonight is the club's real mean staff batters faced minus the starter's projection. The published staff alone holds only the relievers one simulation draw used, so it is shown beside the bullpen for comparison, not used.

Reading a delta. Own skill is measured against the league. The opponent effect is measured against the hitter's own rate, which is the only one that may adjust a published line, because the published line already carries his own skill. Adding both to a published line would count the hitter twice.

Coverage. 36 hitter-versus-starter pairings; 24 have both sides above their sample floor on hits and 27 carry a non-zero hit adjustment. A side below its floor falls back to the league rate and is marked n<floor, which is a stated absence of evidence rather than a measured zero. All four outcome metrics have value documents. Handedness source: model bundle pitcher_hands.json.

Largest per-player movements on the slate

Hitter	Club	Metric	Starter faced (+ bullpen)	Published	KPI adjusted, whole staff	Δ	Hitter band	Pitcher band	Game
Kyle Teel	CHW	Strikeouts	Parker Messick	1.482	1.738	+0.256	averagen<floor	Good	20261008_CLE@CHW
Munetaka Murakami	CHW	Strikeouts	Parker Messick	1.704	1.945	+0.241	Poor	Good	20261008_CLE@CHW
Colson Montgomery	CHW	Strikeouts	Parker Messick	1.477	1.685	+0.208	Poor	Good	20261008_CLE@CHW
Brenton Doyle	CHW	Strikeouts	Parker Messick	1.335	1.537	+0.203	Poor	Good	20261008_CLE@CHW
Spencer Jones	NYY	Strikeouts	Drew Rasmussen	1.608	1.807	+0.199	Poor	Good	20261008_TB@NYY
George Lombard Jr.	NYY	Strikeouts	Drew Rasmussen	1.275	1.468	+0.193	averagen<floor	Good	20261008_TB@NYY
Ben Rice	NYY	Strikeouts	Drew Rasmussen	1.246	1.429	+0.183	Average	Good	20261008_TB@NYY
Anthony Volpe	NYY	Strikeouts	Drew Rasmussen	1.183	1.362	+0.179	Average	Good	20261008_TB@NYY
Chase Meidroth	CHW	Strikeouts	Parker Messick	1.026	1.204	+0.178	Average	Good	20261008_CLE@CHW
Tommy Pham	CHW	Strikeouts	Parker Messick	0.986	1.156	+0.170	averagen<floor	Good	20261008_CLE@CHW
Randal Grichuk	CHW	Strikeouts	Parker Messick	0.957	1.123	+0.166	Average	Good	20261008_CLE@CHW
Braden Montgomery	CHW	Strikeouts	Parker Messick	0.910	1.073	+0.162	Average	Good	20261008_CLE@CHW
José Caballero	NYY	Strikeouts	Drew Rasmussen	1.093	1.254	+0.161	Average	Good	20261008_TB@NYY
Miguel Vargas	CHW	Strikeouts	Parker Messick	0.833	0.985	+0.152	Good	Good	20261008_CLE@CHW
Trent Grisham	NYY	Strikeouts	Drew Rasmussen	0.943	1.093	+0.150	Good	Good	20261008_TB@NYY
Luis García Jr.	NYY	Strikeouts	Drew Rasmussen	0.928	1.077	+0.149	Good	Good	20261008_TB@NYY
Austin Wells	NYY	Strikeouts	Drew Rasmussen	1.008	1.152	+0.144	Below average	Good	20261008_TB@NYY
Jonathan Aranda	TB	Strikeouts	Carlos Rodón	1.310	1.447	+0.137	Average	Good	20261008_TB@NYY
Ben Rice	NYY	Walks	Drew Rasmussen	0.459	0.328	-0.131	Very good	Very good	20261008_TB@NYY
Cody Bellinger	NYY	Strikeouts	Drew Rasmussen	0.776	0.903	+0.128	Good	Good	20261008_TB@NYY

Per game

Club Player

20261008_CLE@CHW — team layer withheld (values_fresh); runs moved away -0.1316 / home -0.0239

Parker Messick (LHP, 21.0 BF)
H 0.2064 Good · SO 0.2536 Good · BB 0.0678 Very good · HR 0.0252 Good

Hagen Smith (LHP, 11.7 BF)
H 0.2169 averagen<floor · SO 0.2212 averagen<floor · BB 0.0889 averagen<floor · HR 0.0304 averagen<floor

Warnings: home starter is projected 11.6634 batters faced, outside the real p10-p90 band of 17-27

CLE hitters vs Hagen Smith and the bullpen

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to CLE hitter lines. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Steven Kwan	CF	Hagen Smith + bullpen	4.49	0.950 → 0.937	-0.013	0.556 → 0.600	+0.044	0.562 → 0.574	+0.011	0.053 → 0.051	-0.003

José Ramírez	3B	Hagen Smith + bullpen	4.64	0.783 → 0.773	-0.011	0.717 → 0.771	+0.054	0.658 → 0.672	+0.014	0.114 → 0.109	-0.005

Chase DeLauter	RF	Hagen Smith + bullpen	4.37	0.936 → 0.923	-0.012	0.804 → 0.864	+0.059	0.550 → 0.561	+0.011	0.124 → 0.118	-0.006

Jo Adell	DH	Hagen Smith + bullpen	4.23	0.823 → 0.812	-0.011	1.194 → 1.272	+0.079	0.416 → 0.425	+0.009	0.147 → 0.140	-0.007

Nathaniel Lowe	1B	Hagen Smith + bullpen	3.85	0.777 → 0.767	-0.011	1.091 → 1.163	+0.073	0.406 → 0.415	+0.009	0.129 → 0.123	-0.006

Angel Martínez	LF	Hagen Smith + bullpen	3.94	0.777 → 0.766	-0.010	1.106 → 1.181	+0.075	0.244 → 0.249	+0.005	0.163 → 0.155	-0.007

Travis Bazzana	2B	Hagen Smith + bullpen	3.84	0.736 → 0.726	-0.010	0.977 → 1.044	+0.067	0.430 → 0.439	+0.009	0.105 → 0.100	-0.005

Austin Hedges	C	Hagen Smith + bullpen	3.52	0.621 → 0.612	-0.009	0.767 → 0.821	+0.054	0.461 → 0.470	+0.010	0.097 → 0.093	-0.005

Brayan Rocchio	SS	Hagen Smith + bullpen	3.56	0.744 → 0.734	-0.010	0.633 → 0.680	+0.047	0.348 → 0.356	+0.008	0.093 → 0.088	-0.004

CLE starter against the CHW lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Parker Messick	Starter	CHW	21.01	4.312 → 4.271	-0.041	5.775 → 6.494	+0.718	1.574 → 1.729	+0.155	0.433 → 0.514	+0.081

CLE bullpen: the full relief corps (7 arms)

Exposure. Starter 21.0 batters faced, bullpen 16.1 (43.4% of the game), from the club's real 37.1 staff batters faced per game over 20 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 36.5% across 3 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Erik Sabrowski	Setup Man	pregame bullpen, published staff	35	9	27.1%	4.36
Tim Herrin	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	pregame bullpen, published staff	38	10	17.7%	2.85
Shawn Armstrong	Reliever	pregame bullpen	14	5	13.5%	2.18
Daniel Espino	Reliever	pregame bullpen	12	4	12.8%	2.07
Cade Smith	Closer	pregame bullpen, published staff	46	12	11.5%	1.84
Hunter Gaddis	Reliever	pregame bullpen	51	13	10.1%	1.63
Joey Cantillo	Reliever	pregame bullpen	60	4	7.2%	1.15

CLE relievers against the CHW lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Erik Sabrowski	Setup Man	CHW (27% of relief)	4.36	0.525 → 0.520	-0.005	1.625 → 1.803	+0.178	0.625 → 0.682	+0.057	0.046 → 0.055	+0.009

Tim Herrin	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	CHW (18% of relief)	2.85	0.857 → 0.849	-0.008	1.179 → 1.331	+0.153	0.393 → 0.430	+0.037	0.069 → 0.082	+0.013

Shawn Armstrong	Reliever	CHW (14% of relief)	2.18	0.452 → 0.447	-0.004	0.474 → 0.536	+0.062	0.228 → 0.249	+0.021	0.061 → 0.072	+0.011

Daniel Espino	Reliever	CHW (13% of relief)	2.07	0.448 → 0.444	-0.004	0.457 → 0.517	+0.060	0.184 → 0.201	+0.018	0.063 → 0.074	+0.012

Cade Smith	Closer	CHW (11% of relief)	1.84	0.469 → 0.464	-0.005	1.574 → 1.747	+0.173	0.228 → 0.250	+0.022	0.049 → 0.058	+0.009

Hunter Gaddis	Reliever	CHW (10% of relief)	1.63	0.348 → 0.345	-0.003	0.361 → 0.408	+0.047	0.143 → 0.157	+0.014	0.048 → 0.057	+0.009

Joey Cantillo	Reliever	CHW (7% of relief)	1.15	0.244 → 0.242	-0.002	0.284 → 0.320	+0.036	0.130 → 0.142	+0.012	0.031 → 0.037	+0.006

CHW hitters vs Parker Messick and the bullpen

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to CHW hitter lines. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Chase Meidroth	2B	Parker Messick + bullpen	4.21	0.968 → 0.910	-0.058	1.026 → 1.204	+0.178	0.402 → 0.380	-0.022	0.103 → 0.089	-0.015

Randal Grichuk	LF	Parker Messick + bullpen	3.94	0.842 → 0.792	-0.050	0.957 → 1.123	+0.166	0.227 → 0.214	-0.013	0.160 → 0.138	-0.022

Miguel Vargas	3B	Parker Messick + bullpen	4.25	0.818 → 0.767	-0.050	0.833 → 0.985	+0.152	0.557 → 0.527	-0.031	0.185 → 0.160	-0.026

Munetaka Murakami	1B	Parker Messick + bullpen	4.31	0.738 → 0.691	-0.046	1.704 → 1.945	+0.241	0.550 → 0.519	-0.030	0.217 → 0.188	-0.030

Tommy Pham	DH	Parker Messick + bullpen	3.45	0.639 → 0.600	-0.039	0.986 → 1.156	+0.170	0.361 → 0.341	-0.020	0.104 → 0.089	-0.015

Brenton Doyle	CF	Parker Messick + bullpen	3.74	0.695 → 0.653	-0.042	1.335 → 1.537	+0.203	0.240 → 0.226	-0.013	0.111 → 0.095	-0.015

Kyle Teel	C	Parker Messick + bullpen	3.82	0.694 → 0.652	-0.042	1.482 → 1.738	+0.256	0.388 → 0.366	-0.021	0.112 → 0.096	-0.016

Braden Montgomery	RF	Parker Messick + bullpen	3.65	0.713 → 0.669	-0.044	0.910 → 1.073	+0.162	0.318 → 0.300	-0.018	0.090 → 0.078	-0.013

Colson Montgomery	SS	Parker Messick + bullpen	3.55	0.628 → 0.589	-0.039	1.477 → 1.685	+0.208	0.336 → 0.317	-0.019	0.146 → 0.126	-0.020

CHW starter against the CLE lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Hagen Smith	Starter	CLE	11.66	2.208 → 2.256	+0.048	2.670 → 2.159	-0.512	1.057 → 1.074	+0.016	0.423 → 0.395	-0.028

CHW bullpen: the full relief corps (7 arms)

Exposure. Starter 11.7 batters faced, bullpen 23.8 (67.1% of the game), from the club's real 35.5 staff batters faced per game over 2 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 67.5% across 4 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Grant Taylor	Closer	pregame bullpen, published staff	0	0	30.4%	7.24
Anthony Kay	Setup Man	pregame bullpen, published staff	9	2	23.1%	5.50
Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	pregame bullpen, published staff	0	0	19.0%	4.52
Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	pregame bullpen, published staff	16	5	12.1%	2.88
David Sandlin	Reliever	pregame bullpen	5	1	9.1%	2.17
Erick Fedde	Reliever	pregame bullpen	33	2	4.4%	1.04
Davis Martin	Reliever	pregame bullpen	20	1	1.8%	0.43

CHW relievers against the CLE lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Grant Taylor	Closer	CLE (30% of relief)	7.24	1.120 → 1.145	+0.025	2.035 → 1.677	-0.359	0.466 → 0.473	+0.007	0.089 → 0.083	-0.006

Anthony Kay	Setup Man	CLE (23% of relief)	5.50	1.763 → 1.801	+0.038	0.252 → 0.202	-0.050	1.092 → 1.109	+0.017	0.221 → 0.207	-0.014

Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	CLE (19% of relief)	4.52	0.912 → 0.932	+0.020	1.216 → 0.997	-0.220	0.601 → 0.610	+0.009	0.098 → 0.092	-0.006

Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	CLE (12% of relief)	2.88	1.024 → 1.046	+0.022	0.775 → 0.625	-0.150	0.230 → 0.234	+0.004	0.073 → 0.068	-0.005

David Sandlin	Reliever	CLE (9% of relief)	2.17	0.470 → 0.480	+0.010	0.507 → 0.411	-0.096	0.181 → 0.184	+0.003	0.073 → 0.068	-0.005

Erick Fedde	Reliever	CLE (4% of relief)	1.04	0.234 → 0.239	+0.005	0.177 → 0.141	-0.036	0.090 → 0.091	+0.001	0.036 → 0.034	-0.002

Davis Martin	Reliever	CLE (2% of relief)	0.43	0.099 → 0.101	+0.002	0.086 → 0.069	-0.017	0.033 → 0.034	+0.001	0.011 → 0.010	-0.001

20261008_TB@NYY — team layer withheld (values_fresh); runs moved away -0.0699 / home 0.2635

Drew Rasmussen (RHP, 21.8 BF)
H 0.1960 Good · SO 0.2559 Good · BB 0.0557 Very good · HR 0.0247 Good

Carlos Rodón (LHP, 20.0 BF)
H 0.1844 Very good · SO 0.2545 Good · BB 0.1125 Below average · HR 0.0264 Good

TB hitters vs Carlos Rodón and the bullpen

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to TB hitter lines. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Yandy Díaz	DH	Carlos Rodón + bullpen	4.53	0.938 → 0.852	-0.086	0.844 → 0.946	+0.101	0.473 → 0.534	+0.061	0.177 → 0.156	-0.021

Jonathan Aranda	1B	Carlos Rodón + bullpen	4.32	0.860 → 0.779	-0.081	1.310 → 1.447	+0.137	0.460 → 0.518	+0.058	0.152 → 0.134	-0.018

Junior Caminero	3B	Carlos Rodón + bullpen	4.27	0.801 → 0.726	-0.075	0.889 → 0.990	+0.101	0.573 → 0.644	+0.071	0.237 → 0.209	-0.028

Victor Mesa Jr.	LF	Carlos Rodón + bullpen	4.10	0.786 → 0.712	-0.074	1.014 → 1.126	+0.112	0.416 → 0.469	+0.053	0.201 → 0.177	-0.024

Ryan Vilade	RF	Carlos Rodón + bullpen	3.90	0.729 → 0.660	-0.069	1.059 → 1.171	+0.112	0.429 → 0.484	+0.055	0.162 → 0.143	-0.019

Liam Hicks	C	Carlos Rodón + bullpen	3.91	0.795 → 0.721	-0.074	0.522 → 0.588	+0.066	0.417 → 0.470	+0.053	0.137 → 0.121	-0.016

Jonny DeLuca	CF	Carlos Rodón + bullpen	3.84	0.760 → 0.690	-0.071	1.051 → 1.166	+0.115	0.281 → 0.318	+0.038	0.134 → 0.118	-0.016

Richie Palacios	2B	Carlos Rodón + bullpen	3.59	0.666 → 0.602	-0.064	0.770 → 0.859	+0.089	0.412 → 0.463	+0.051	0.106 → 0.094	-0.013

Taylor Walls	SS	Carlos Rodón + bullpen	3.59	0.624 → 0.564	-0.060	1.002 → 1.107	+0.105	0.448 → 0.504	+0.056	0.059 → 0.052	-0.007

TB starter against the NYY lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Drew Rasmussen	Starter	NYY	21.76	3.309 → 3.313	+0.004	6.038 → 6.178	+0.140	1.156 → 1.251	+0.095	0.276 → 0.320	+0.044

TB bullpen: the full relief corps (7 arms)

Exposure. Starter 21.8 batters faced, bullpen 13.3 (38.0% of the game), from the club's real 35.1 staff batters faced per game over 22 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 39.5% across 3 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Bryan Baker	Closer	pregame bullpen, published staff	37	10	25.4%	3.38
Cam Booser	Setup Man	pregame bullpen, published staff	25	10	25.3%	3.37
Ian Seymour	Long Reliever	pregame bullpen, published staff	16	3	23.9%	3.18
Steven Matz	Reliever	pregame bullpen	33	7	10.2%	1.36
Cole Sulser	Reliever	pregame bullpen	33	9	9.0%	1.20
Kevin Kelly	Reliever	pregame bullpen	31	9	4.4%	0.59
Tyler Wells	Reliever	pregame bullpen	7	2	1.8%	0.24

TB relievers against the NYY lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Bryan Baker	Closer	NYY (25% of relief)	3.38	0.540 → 0.541	+0.001	0.931 → 0.953	+0.022	0.287 → 0.310	+0.023	0.049 → 0.057	+0.008

Cam Booser	Setup Man	NYY (25% of relief)	3.37	0.368 → 0.368	0	0.713 → 0.730	+0.016	0.127 → 0.137	+0.010	0.068 → 0.079	+0.011

Ian Seymour	Long Reliever	NYY (24% of relief)	3.18	1.389 → 1.391	+0.002	2.078 → 2.125	+0.047	0.448 → 0.484	+0.036	0.203 → 0.235	+0.032

Steven Matz	Reliever	NYY (10% of relief)	1.36	0.295 → 0.296	0	0.254 → 0.261	+0.006	0.106 → 0.115	+0.009	0.049 → 0.057	+0.008

Cole Sulser	Reliever	NYY (9% of relief)	1.20	0.264 → 0.264	0	0.279 → 0.286	+0.007	0.094 → 0.102	+0.007	0.036 → 0.042	+0.006

Kevin Kelly	Reliever	NYY (4% of relief)	0.59	0.122 → 0.122	0	0.133 → 0.136	+0.003	0.034 → 0.037	+0.003	0.016 → 0.018	+0.003

Tyler Wells	Reliever	NYY (2% of relief)	0.24	0.046 → 0.046	0	0.060 → 0.061	+0.001	0.018 → 0.019	+0.001	0.007 → 0.008	+0.001

NYY hitters vs Drew Rasmussen and the bullpen

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to NYY hitter lines. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Trent Grisham	CF	Drew Rasmussen + bullpen	4.09	0.786 → 0.717	-0.069	0.943 → 1.093	+0.150	0.411 → 0.294	-0.117	0.173 → 0.156	-0.017

Ben Rice	DH	Drew Rasmussen + bullpen	4.22	0.793 → 0.726	-0.068	1.246 → 1.429	+0.183	0.459 → 0.328	-0.131	0.277 → 0.250	-0.027

Luis García Jr.	1B	Drew Rasmussen + bullpen	4.07	0.884 → 0.811	-0.074	0.928 → 1.077	+0.149	0.200 → 0.140	-0.060	0.233 → 0.210	-0.023

Cody Bellinger	LF	Drew Rasmussen + bullpen	4.27	0.861 → 0.788	-0.073	0.776 → 0.903	+0.128	0.379 → 0.270	-0.110	0.145 → 0.131	-0.014

George Lombard Jr.	SS	Drew Rasmussen + bullpen	4.01	0.821 → 0.750	-0.071	1.275 → 1.468	+0.193	0.238 → 0.169	-0.070	0.165 → 0.149	-0.016

Austin Wells	C	Drew Rasmussen + bullpen	3.41	0.587 → 0.535	-0.052	1.008 → 1.152	+0.144	0.333 → 0.238	-0.095	0.150 → 0.135	-0.015

Anthony Volpe	2B	Drew Rasmussen + bullpen	3.82	0.710 → 0.649	-0.061	1.183 → 1.362	+0.179	0.311 → 0.221	-0.090	0.082 → 0.074	-0.008

Spencer Jones	RF	Drew Rasmussen + bullpen	3.82	0.760 → 0.695	-0.065	1.608 → 1.807	+0.199	0.292 → 0.207	-0.085	0.156 → 0.141	-0.015

José Caballero	3B	Drew Rasmussen + bullpen	3.47	0.687 → 0.628	-0.059	1.093 → 1.254	+0.161	0.208 → 0.146	-0.062	0.125 → 0.112	-0.012

NYY starter against the TB lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Carlos Rodón	Starter	TB	19.98	2.727 → 2.851	+0.124	5.416 → 4.778	-0.638	1.714 → 1.803	+0.089	0.474 → 0.523	+0.049

NYY bullpen: the full relief corps (7 arms)

Exposure. Starter 20.0 batters faced, bullpen 16.5 (45.3% of the game), from the club's real 36.5 staff batters faced per game over 20 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 40.6% across 3 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	pregame bullpen, published staff	45	10	20.7%	3.42
Brent Headrick	Reliever	pregame bullpen	40	12	18.4%	3.04
John Schreiber	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	pregame bullpen, published staff	38	10	17.5%	2.90
Ryan Weathers	Middle Reliever	pregame bullpen, published staff	6	2	17.4%	2.89
David Bednar	Reliever	pregame bullpen	37	9	16.9%	2.80
Will Warren	Reliever	pregame bullpen	21	2	7.3%	1.20
Ryan Yarbrough	Reliever	pregame bullpen	30	5	1.8%	0.29

NYY relievers against the TB lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	TB (21% of relief)	3.42	0.811 → 0.847	+0.036	0.773 → 0.677	-0.097	0.470 → 0.495	+0.025	0.068 → 0.075	+0.007

Brent Headrick	Reliever	TB (18% of relief)	3.04	0.646 → 0.675	+0.028	0.866 → 0.768	-0.098	0.258 → 0.272	+0.014	0.073 → 0.081	+0.008

John Schreiber	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	TB (18% of relief)	2.90	0.765 → 0.799	+0.034	0.657 → 0.573	-0.085	0.338 → 0.356	+0.018	0.090 → 0.099	+0.009

Ryan Weathers	Middle Reliever	TB (17% of relief)	2.89	0.793 → 0.827	+0.034	0.732 → 0.645	-0.087	0.415 → 0.438	+0.023	0.119 → 0.131	+0.012

David Bednar	Reliever	TB (17% of relief)	2.80	0.568 → 0.593	+0.025	0.735 → 0.649	-0.086	0.219 → 0.231	+0.012	0.068 → 0.075	+0.007

Will Warren	Reliever	TB (7% of relief)	1.20	0.276 → 0.288	+0.012	0.279 → 0.245	-0.034	0.097 → 0.102	+0.005	0.037 → 0.041	+0.004

Ryan Yarbrough	Reliever	TB (2% of relief)	0.29	0.061 → 0.064	+0.003	0.057 → 0.050	-0.007	0.025 → 0.026	+0.001	0.007 → 0.008	+0.001

Measured from published artifacts and stored KPI values. Nothing recomputed. Per-player adjustments are a measurement of the catalog, not the published line.