MLB Prediction System

Game Forensics

2026-10-08 · per game, per club, per hitter

slate 2026-10-08games 2

Per game

Every stage, every club edge

Each game expands to show the four forecast stages, the gates, the club-level KPI edges the model consumed and both lineups with their strongest readings. Composite z averages a hitter's KPI standard scores; a positive number means above the qualified-population mean on balance.

CLE @ CHW · final 9-5

Stage	Away runs	Home runs	Home win	Note
Production baseline	5.000	4.000	0.495	what the system would have published
KPI-only forecast	4.613	3.937	0.416	44 KPI features alone, no baseline input
Blended	4.868	3.976	0.495	at the fitted weights
Published	5	4	0.495	after rounding and reconciliation
Actual	9	5	-	official final

NOT applied. Failed gates: values_fresh. Lineup coverage CLE 0.988, CHW 0.766. Value age 11 days. Gates passed 5/6.

Club KPI edges

KPI	CLE	CHW	Edge (H-A)	A spread	H spread
batter_barrel_rate_vs_breaking	-0.452	+0.340	+0.792	0.7379	0.9993
batter_barrel_rate_vs_fastball	-0.711	+0.363	+1.073	0.6793	1.2464
batter_barrel_rate_vs_lhp	-0.487	+0.677	+1.164	0.8227	1.0534
batter_barrel_rate_vs_offspeed	-0.476	+0.905	+1.381	1.029	1.0758
batter_barrel_rate_vs_rhp	-0.577	+0.413	+0.991	0.6914	1.1801
batter_bat_speed	-0.464	+0.172	+0.636	1.4577	1.0699
batter_contact_rate_vs_breaking	+0.447	-0.285	-0.732	1.4401	0.9948
batter_contact_xwoba	-0.450	+0.476	+0.926	0.771	0.9343
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_breaking	-0.483	+0.326	+0.809	0.9264	0.836
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_fastball	-0.357	+0.450	+0.806	0.694	0.8973
batter_exit_velocity_vs_fastball	-0.313	+0.333	+0.646	0.9599	0.715
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball	+0.398	+0.073	-0.326	0.5691	1.2919
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_slider	-0.113	+0.052	+0.165	0.7976	1.024
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking	-0.392	+0.346	+0.739	1.091	0.9914
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball	-0.614	+0.328	+0.942	1.3591	0.7103
batter_home_run_rate	-0.275	+0.588	+0.862	0.8336	1.1071
batter_strikeout_rate	+0.743	-0.545	-1.288	0.8237	1.1058
batter_walk_rate	+0.044	+0.322	+0.278	1.1404	1.2924
batter_whiff_rate_vs_breaking	+0.758	-0.306	-1.065	1.0536	1.1187
batter_whiff_rate_vs_fastball	+0.707	-0.719	-1.425	0.8022	1.3496
batter_whiff_rate_vs_lhp	+0.632	-0.289	-0.921	0.8975	1.2622
batter_whiff_rate_vs_offspeed	+0.749	-0.378	-1.127	0.9322	0.9783
batter_whiff_rate_vs_rhp	+0.889	-0.416	-1.305	0.9413	1.1459
pitcher_barrel_rate_allowed	+2.121	+0.861	-1.260	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_lhh	+1.405	+0.000	-1.405	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_rhh	+1.726	+0.000	-1.726	-	-
pitcher_contact_xwoba_allowed	+0.784	+0.000	-0.784	-	-
pitcher_ground_ball_rate_induced	+0.352	+0.000	-0.352	-	-
pitcher_hard_hit_rate_allowed	+1.537	+0.000	-1.537	-	-
pitcher_home_run_rate_allowed	+1.016	+0.000	-1.016	-	-
pitcher_release_speed	+0.204	-0.162	-0.366	-	-
pitcher_strikeout_rate	+0.713	+0.000	-0.713	-	-
pitcher_walk_rate	+1.306	+0.000	-1.306	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate	-0.078	+0.000	+0.078	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_breaking	-1.597	+1.116	+2.714	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_fastball	+0.526	+0.000	-0.526	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_lhh	+0.245	+0.000	-0.245	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_rhh	-0.282	+1.977	+2.259	-	-

Lineups and their strongest readings

Batter	Pos	Proj PA	Composite z	Three strongest KPI readings
CLE lineup vs Hagen Smith
1. Steven Kwan	CF	4.65	-0.344	hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-4.00), bat_speed Poor (-3.47), contact_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+3.09)
2. José Ramírez	3B	4.55	+0.275	whiff_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+2.21), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+1.87), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.70)
3. Chase DeLauter	RF	4.45	+0.480	contact_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+2.31), whiff_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+1.80), whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+1.62)
4. Jo Adell	DH	4.35	+0.156	bat_speed Very good (+2.16), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+1.68), walk_rate Poor (-1.40)
5. Nathaniel Lowe	1B	4.25	+0.251	whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Good (+1.13), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Good (+1.01), bat_speed Good (+0.99)
6. Angel Martínez	LF	4.15	+0.078	walk_rate Poor (-2.05), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Good (+1.16), barrel_rate_vs_breaking Good (+1.12)
7. Travis Bazzana	2B	4.05	-0.267	hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-1.41), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Poor (-1.41), barrel_rate_vs_breaking Below average (-1.09)
8. Austin Hedges	C	3.98	-0.499	ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Poor (-1.79), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Poor (-1.35), exit_velocity_vs_fastball Poor (-1.32)
9. Brayan Rocchio	SS	3.90	-0.543	barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Poor (-1.60), barrel_rate_vs_rhp Poor (-1.47), barrel_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-1.35)
CHW lineup vs Parker Messick
1. Chase Meidroth	2B	4.65	-0.270	bat_speed Poor (-2.07), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Good (+1.29), whiff_rate_vs_breaking Good (+1.14)
2. Randal Grichuk	LF	4.55	+0.531	barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+2.83), barrel_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+1.91), walk_rate Poor (-1.55)
3. Miguel Vargas	3B	4.45	+1.043	walk_rate Very good (+2.02), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.83), barrel_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+1.69)
4. Munetaka Murakami	1B	4.35	+0.714	whiff_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-3.27), barrel_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+3.16), barrel_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+3.14)
5. Tommy Pham	DH	4.25	+0.000	barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Average (+0.00), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Average (+0.00), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Average (+0.00)
6. Brenton Doyle	CF	4.15	-0.367	strikeout_rate Poor (-1.55), whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Poor (-1.49), whiff_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-1.40)
7. Kyle Teel	C	4.05	-0.090	whiff_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.07), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Average (+0.00), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Average (+0.00)
8. Braden Montgomery	RF	3.98	-0.458	ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.61), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Poor (-1.34), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Below average (-1.28)
9. Colson Montgomery	SS	3.90	+0.046	strikeout_rate Poor (-2.35), contact_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-2.24), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.12)

TB @ NYY

Stage	Away runs	Home runs	Home win	Note
Production baseline	4.000	3.000	0.493	what the system would have published
KPI-only forecast	3.794	3.693	0.533	44 KPI features alone, no baseline input
Blended	3.930	3.263	0.493	at the fitted weights
Published	4	3	0.495	after rounding and reconciliation

NOT applied. Failed gates: values_fresh. Lineup coverage TB 0.983, NYY 0.895. Value age 11 days. Gates passed 5/6.

Club KPI edges

KPI	TB	NYY	Edge (H-A)	A spread	H spread
batter_barrel_rate_vs_breaking	+0.005	-0.070	-0.075	0.8453	0.6452
batter_barrel_rate_vs_fastball	-0.235	+0.358	+0.593	1.0013	1.1089
batter_barrel_rate_vs_lhp	-0.529	-0.211	+0.318	0.9641	0.4954
batter_barrel_rate_vs_offspeed	-0.196	+0.247	+0.444	0.7155	0.7601
batter_barrel_rate_vs_rhp	-0.014	+0.414	+0.428	0.8364	0.8669
batter_bat_speed	+0.174	-0.068	-0.243	1.5244	0.9016
batter_contact_rate_vs_breaking	+0.769	-0.183	-0.952	1.0317	0.9813
batter_contact_xwoba	-0.227	+0.260	+0.487	0.962	0.9866
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_breaking	+0.028	+0.206	+0.179	1.1313	0.9732
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_fastball	-0.478	+0.310	+0.788	0.878	0.9695
batter_exit_velocity_vs_fastball	-0.215	+0.233	+0.448	1.2914	1.014
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball	-0.109	+0.341	+0.450	0.9629	0.8393
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_slider	+0.198	+0.502	+0.304	0.8413	0.6753
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking	-0.023	+0.335	+0.359	1.3691	0.9346
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball	-0.281	+0.246	+0.527	1.2562	0.7895
batter_home_run_rate	+0.304	+0.293	-0.011	1.1257	0.9681
batter_strikeout_rate	+0.466	-0.212	-0.678	0.8081	0.9036
batter_walk_rate	+0.209	+0.495	+0.286	0.682	0.7311
batter_whiff_rate_vs_breaking	+0.861	-0.140	-1.001	0.8075	0.6296
batter_whiff_rate_vs_fastball	+0.437	-0.240	-0.676	0.8587	0.9986
batter_whiff_rate_vs_lhp	+0.863	-0.040	-0.903	0.5454	0.6783
batter_whiff_rate_vs_offspeed	+0.641	-0.113	-0.754	0.8644	0.8977
batter_whiff_rate_vs_rhp	+0.569	-0.147	-0.716	0.7544	0.9378
pitcher_barrel_rate_allowed	+1.293	+0.368	-0.925	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_lhh	+1.151	+0.115	-1.035	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_rhh	+0.789	+0.327	-0.462	-	-
pitcher_contact_xwoba_allowed	+0.816	+0.094	-0.722	-	-
pitcher_ground_ball_rate_induced	+0.392	-0.588	-0.980	-	-
pitcher_hard_hit_rate_allowed	+1.555	-0.178	-1.733	-	-
pitcher_home_run_rate_allowed	+1.119	+0.769	-0.350	-	-
pitcher_release_speed	+1.126	+0.283	-0.843	-	-
pitcher_strikeout_rate	+0.770	+0.734	-0.036	-	-
pitcher_walk_rate	+2.027	-1.336	-3.363	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate	-0.104	+0.500	+0.604	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_breaking	-1.046	+0.385	+1.431	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_fastball	+1.035	+0.414	-0.621	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_lhh	+0.333	+0.364	+0.032	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_rhh	-0.683	+0.370	+1.053	-	-

Lineups and their strongest readings

Batter	Pos	Proj PA	Composite z	Three strongest KPI readings
TB lineup vs Carlos Rodón
1. Yandy Díaz	DH	4.65	+0.661	contact_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+3.15), whiff_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+2.60), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.15)
2. Jonathan Aranda	1B	4.55	+0.634	whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+1.78), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.75), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Very good (+1.58)
3. Junior Caminero	3B	4.45	+0.935	bat_speed Very good (+3.05), home_run_rate Very good (+2.48), exit_velocity_vs_fastball Very good (+2.08)
4. Victor Mesa Jr.	LF	4.35	+0.300	ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Very good (+1.46), home_run_rate Good (+1.31), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Good (+1.16)
5. Ryan Vilade	RF	4.25	+0.147	bat_speed Very good (+1.52), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Good (+1.05), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Good (+0.72)
6. Liam Hicks	C	4.15	-0.041	whiff_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+2.27), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.10), whiff_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+2.08)
7. Jonny DeLuca	CF	4.05	-0.443	walk_rate Poor (-1.41), barrel_rate_vs_lhp Poor (-1.37), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-1.30)
8. Richie Palacios	2B	3.98	-0.296	whiff_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.31), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Poor (-1.30), contact_xwoba_vs_fastball Poor (-1.23)
9. Taylor Walls	SS	3.90	-0.910	hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-2.81), bat_speed Poor (-2.31), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Poor (-1.91)
NYY lineup vs Drew Rasmussen
1. Trent Grisham	CF	4.65	+0.482	walk_rate Very good (+1.33), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Good (+1.24), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Good (+1.17)
2. Ben Rice	DH	4.55	+0.831	home_run_rate Very good (+2.65), barrel_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+2.15), contact_xwoba_vs_fastball Very good (+2.07)
3. Luis Garcia	1B	4.45	+0.000	barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Average (+0.00), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Average (+0.00), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Average (+0.00)
4. Cody Bellinger	LF	4.35	+0.273	ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Very good (+1.76), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Good (+1.25), strikeout_rate Good (+1.07)
5. George Lombard Jr.	SS	4.25	-0.030	whiff_rate_vs_fastball Below average (-1.23), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Average (+0.45), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Average (+0.10)
6. Austin Wells	C	4.15	-0.068	contact_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-1.55), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.33), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Poor (-1.21)
7. Anthony Volpe	2B	4.05	-0.184	home_run_rate Poor (-1.26), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Below average (-1.04), contact_rate_vs_breaking Good (+1.00)
8. Spencer Jones	RF	3.98	+0.285	whiff_rate_vs_rhp Poor (-2.59), barrel_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+2.40), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.37)
9. José Caballero	3B	3.90	-0.640	exit_velocity_vs_fastball Poor (-2.19), bat_speed Poor (-1.79), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-1.42)

Edge is home club minus away club on that KPI, in standard deviations, after plate-appearance weighting. Spread is the dispersion inside a club, which a mean alone discards and which is roughly three times larger than the between-game variation of the mean itself.
generated 2026-10-09T09:11:55.275109+00:00 · kpi_slate_report_v3