MLB Prediction System

KPI Player Effects

How each KPI adds or removes a hit, a strikeout, a walk or a home run, per player, against the arm he actually faces

Slate 20261006Games 2Schema kpi_player_effects_v2Built 2026-10-07 09:14Z

What this document measures

Every counting stat below has a KPI on both sides of the matchup, measured on the same denominator: a plate appearance. That is what lets the hitter's reading and the starter's reading be combined instead of listed side by side. The combination is the standard Log5 odds ratio, which is exactly additive in log odds, so the hitter's push and the pitcher's push separate cleanly and the remainder is reported rather than absorbed.

Hits use a derived KPI. Hit rate is not in config/kpi_registry.json: registering it would move the registry hash recorded in the model manifest and fail the live layer closed until a retrain. It is computed with the same strict as-of cutoff and the same shrinkage, stored in its own namespace, and never read by the runtime.

These per-player numbers are measured, not published. The live KPI layer moves team runs and the win probability. The hitter lines in the artifact were then scaled by one club-wide ratio, identical for the leadoff hitter and the ninth bat. The per-hitter columns here are what that single ratio discards.

The whole staff, not only the starter. A hitter takes roughly four in ten of his plate appearances against relievers. Each club's bullpen here is the pregame bullpen: the seven busiest healthy relievers of the last 30 days, the same arms the KPI forecast weighted and the simulation pitched, each sharing the relief work by the batters faced the forecast gave him. The bullpen's workload tonight is the club's real mean staff batters faced minus the starter's projection. The published staff alone holds only the relievers one simulation draw used, so it is shown beside the bullpen for comparison, not used.

Reading a delta. Own skill is measured against the league. The opponent effect is measured against the hitter's own rate, which is the only one that may adjust a published line, because the published line already carries his own skill. Adding both to a published line would count the hitter twice.

Coverage. 36 hitter-versus-starter pairings; 31 have both sides above their sample floor on hits and 36 carry a non-zero hit adjustment. A side below its floor falls back to the league rate and is marked n<floor, which is a stated absence of evidence rather than a measured zero. All four outcome metrics have value documents. Handedness source: model bundle pitcher_hands.json.

Largest per-player movements on the slate

Hitter	Club	Metric	Starter faced (+ bullpen)	Published	KPI adjusted, whole staff	Δ	Hitter band	Pitcher band	Game
Shohei Ohtani	LAD	Strikeouts	Chris Sale	1.270	1.532	+0.262	Average	Very good	20261006_LAD@ATL
Teoscar Hernández	LAD	Strikeouts	Chris Sale	1.322	1.584	+0.262	Below average	Very good	20261006_LAD@ATL
Jackson Chourio	MIL	Strikeouts	Nick Pivetta	1.169	1.406	+0.237	Average	Good	20261006_MIL@SD
Garrett Mitchell	MIL	Strikeouts	Nick Pivetta	1.296	1.531	+0.234	Poor	Good	20261006_MIL@SD
Enrique Hernández	LAD	Strikeouts	Chris Sale	1.078	1.309	+0.231	averagen<floor	Very good	20261006_LAD@ATL
Jake Bauers	MIL	Strikeouts	Nick Pivetta	1.181	1.408	+0.228	Below average	Good	20261006_MIL@SD
Brice Turang	MIL	Strikeouts	Nick Pivetta	1.118	1.341	+0.223	Below average	Good	20261006_MIL@SD
Christian Yelich	MIL	Strikeouts	Nick Pivetta	1.116	1.331	+0.215	Below average	Good	20261006_MIL@SD
Kyle Tucker	LAD	Strikeouts	Chris Sale	0.887	1.094	+0.207	Good	Very good	20261006_LAD@ATL
Freddie Freeman	LAD	Strikeouts	Chris Sale	0.889	1.093	+0.205	Good	Very good	20261006_LAD@ATL
Will Smith	LAD	Strikeouts	Chris Sale	0.857	1.057	+0.200	Good	Very good	20261006_LAD@ATL
Andy Pages	LAD	Strikeouts	Chris Sale	0.841	1.028	+0.188	Average	Very good	20261006_LAD@ATL
Joey Ortiz	MIL	Strikeouts	Nick Pivetta	0.875	1.062	+0.187	Average	Good	20261006_MIL@SD
William Contreras	MIL	Strikeouts	Nick Pivetta	0.812	0.999	+0.187	Good	Good	20261006_MIL@SD
Cooper Pratt	MIL	Strikeouts	Nick Pivetta	0.799	0.974	+0.175	Good	Good	20261006_MIL@SD
Austin Riley	ATL	Strikeouts	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	1.209	1.360	+0.151	Poor	Good	20261006_LAD@ATL
Matt Olson	ATL	Strikeouts	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	1.080	1.230	+0.150	Average	Good	20261006_LAD@ATL
Mookie Betts	LAD	Strikeouts	Chris Sale	0.567	0.711	+0.144	Very good	Very good	20261006_LAD@ATL
Drake Baldwin	ATL	Strikeouts	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	0.986	1.129	+0.143	Average	Good	20261006_LAD@ATL
Ronald Acuña Jr.	ATL	Strikeouts	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	0.990	1.132	+0.142	Average	Good	20261006_LAD@ATL

Per game

Club Player

20261006_LAD@ATL — team layer applied; runs moved away -0.5364 / home 0.2218

Yoshinobu Yamamoto (RHP, 23.2 BF)
H 0.1839 Very good · SO 0.2542 Good · BB 0.0670 Very good · HR 0.0290 Average

Chris Sale (LHP, 22.2 BF)
H 0.2069 Good · SO 0.2947 Very good · BB 0.0573 Very good · HR 0.0219 Very good

LAD hitters vs Chris Sale and the bullpen

The pipeline applied one club-wide ×0.8659 to every LAD hitter line. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Mookie Betts	SS	Chris Sale + bullpen	4.11	0.939 → 0.900	-0.040	0.567 → 0.711	+0.144	0.281 → 0.211	-0.070	0.173 → 0.138	-0.035

Freddie Freeman	1B	Chris Sale + bullpen	4.19	1.000 → 0.959	-0.042	0.889 → 1.093	+0.205	0.275 → 0.207	-0.068	0.129 → 0.103	-0.026

Teoscar Hernández	LF	Chris Sale + bullpen	3.98	0.854 → 0.818	-0.036	1.322 → 1.584	+0.262	0.259 → 0.194	-0.065	0.139 → 0.111	-0.028

Will Smith	C	Chris Sale + bullpen	3.95	0.776 → 0.743	-0.033	0.857 → 1.057	+0.200	0.319 → 0.241	-0.078	0.129 → 0.102	-0.026

Shohei Ohtani	DH	Chris Sale + bullpen	4.10	0.879 → 0.841	-0.037	1.270 → 1.532	+0.262	0.329 → 0.249	-0.080	0.159 → 0.127	-0.032

Miguel Rojas	2B	Chris Sale + bullpen	3.26	0.704 → 0.674	-0.030	0.491 → 0.614	+0.123	0.165 → 0.123	-0.042	0.076 → 0.060	-0.015

Andy Pages	CF	Chris Sale + bullpen	3.68	0.780 → 0.747	-0.033	0.841 → 1.028	+0.188	0.247 → 0.185	-0.062	0.137 → 0.109	-0.028

Kyle Tucker	RF	Chris Sale + bullpen	3.75	0.739 → 0.707	-0.032	0.887 → 1.094	+0.207	0.275 → 0.208	-0.067	0.101 → 0.080	-0.021

Enrique Hernández	3B	Chris Sale + bullpen	3.29	0.676 → 0.647	-0.029	1.078 → 1.309	+0.231	0.196 → 0.147	-0.049	0.108 → 0.086	-0.022

LAD starter against the ATL lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Starter	ATL	23.19	3.425 → 3.557	+0.132	6.455 → 6.206	-0.249	1.270 → 1.191	-0.078	0.799 → 0.923	+0.124

LAD bullpen: the full relief corps (7 arms)

Exposure. Starter 23.2 batters faced, bullpen 12.6 (35.1% of the game), from the club's real 35.8 staff batters faced per game over 22 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 31.1% across 3 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Tanner Scott	Reliever	pregame bullpen	31	8	17.3%	2.18
Kris Bubic	Reliever	pregame bullpen	23	6	16.8%	2.11
Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	pregame bullpen, published staff	26	9	15.2%	1.91
Brock Stewart	Middle Reliever	pregame bullpen, published staff	23	8	13.6%	1.71
Edwin Díaz	Reliever	pregame bullpen	20	6	13.4%	1.69
Roki Sasaki	Reliever	pregame bullpen	19	4	12.8%	1.61
Evan Phillips	Middle Reliever	pregame bullpen, published staff	26	9	10.8%	1.35

LAD relievers against the ATL lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Tanner Scott	Reliever	ATL (17% of relief)	2.18	0.446 → 0.463	+0.017	0.655 → 0.632	-0.024	0.155 → 0.145	-0.009	0.055 → 0.063	+0.009

Kris Bubic	Reliever	ATL (17% of relief)	2.11	0.421 → 0.437	+0.016	0.508 → 0.488	-0.020	0.220 → 0.207	-0.013	0.055 → 0.064	+0.009

Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	ATL (15% of relief)	1.91	0.387 → 0.402	+0.015	1.336 → 1.287	-0.049	0.452 → 0.426	-0.026	0.052 → 0.060	+0.008

Brock Stewart	Middle Reliever	ATL (14% of relief)	1.71	0.522 → 0.541	+0.019	0.965 → 0.926	-0.039	0.331 → 0.311	-0.020	0.058 → 0.067	+0.009

Edwin Díaz	Reliever	ATL (13% of relief)	1.69	0.366 → 0.379	+0.013	0.373 → 0.358	-0.015	0.150 → 0.141	-0.009	0.051 → 0.059	+0.008

Roki Sasaki	Reliever	ATL (13% of relief)	1.61	0.349 → 0.362	+0.013	0.376 → 0.361	-0.015	0.147 → 0.138	-0.009	0.059 → 0.068	+0.009

Evan Phillips	Middle Reliever	ATL (11% of relief)	1.35	0.474 → 0.491	+0.018	0.835 → 0.801	-0.034	0.170 → 0.160	-0.010	0.101 → 0.117	+0.016

ATL hitters vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto and the bullpen

The pipeline applied one club-wide ×1.0739 to every ATL hitter line. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Drake Baldwin	C	Yoshinobu Yamamoto + bullpen	4.40	0.990 → 0.877	-0.113	0.986 → 1.129	+0.143	0.346 → 0.296	-0.050	0.186 → 0.178	-0.009

Ronald Acuña Jr.	DH	Yoshinobu Yamamoto + bullpen	4.25	0.885 → 0.782	-0.103	0.990 → 1.132	+0.142	0.363 → 0.312	-0.051	0.177 → 0.169	-0.008

Matt Olson	1B	Yoshinobu Yamamoto + bullpen	4.14	0.836 → 0.739	-0.097	1.080 → 1.230	+0.150	0.323 → 0.277	-0.046	0.228 → 0.218	-0.011

Ozzie Albies	2B	Yoshinobu Yamamoto + bullpen	3.92	0.822 → 0.726	-0.096	0.697 → 0.806	+0.109	0.257 → 0.220	-0.037	0.146 → 0.139	-0.007

Michael Harris II	CF	Yoshinobu Yamamoto + bullpen	4.02	1.031 → 0.915	-0.115	0.877 → 1.008	+0.131	0.151 → 0.129	-0.022	0.179 → 0.171	-0.009

Mauricio Dubón	LF	Yoshinobu Yamamoto + bullpen	3.82	0.897 → 0.795	-0.102	0.569 → 0.661	+0.093	0.200 → 0.171	-0.029	0.099 → 0.094	-0.005

Lane Thomas	RF	Yoshinobu Yamamoto + bullpen	3.52	0.703 → 0.621	-0.083	0.953 → 1.085	+0.132	0.292 → 0.251	-0.041	0.117 → 0.112	-0.006

Austin Riley	3B	Yoshinobu Yamamoto + bullpen	3.56	0.711 → 0.627	-0.084	1.209 → 1.360	+0.151	0.233 → 0.199	-0.034	0.121 → 0.115	-0.006

Ha-Seong Kim	SS	Yoshinobu Yamamoto + bullpen	3.10	0.601 → 0.531	-0.070	0.866 → 0.990	+0.124	0.257 → 0.220	-0.037	0.076 → 0.072	-0.004

ATL starter against the LAD lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Chris Sale	Starter	LAD	22.15	4.088 → 4.240	+0.152	6.870 → 5.947	-0.923	0.856 → 0.948	+0.093	0.347 → 0.376	+0.029

ATL bullpen: the full relief corps (7 arms)

Exposure. Starter 22.2 batters faced, bullpen 14.8 (40.0% of the game), from the club's real 36.9 staff batters faced per game over 25 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 34.8% across 3 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Grant Holmes	Reliever	pregame bullpen	30	3	17.4%	2.57
Victor Mederos	Reliever	pregame bullpen	32	8	15.8%	2.34
Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	pregame bullpen, published staff	37	9	15.3%	2.27
Robert Suarez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	pregame bullpen, published staff	15	4	15.2%	2.25
Brent Suter	Reliever	pregame bullpen	34	5	13.3%	1.97
Raisel Iglesias	Reliever	pregame bullpen	37	11	12.2%	1.81
Dylan Dodd	Middle Reliever	pregame bullpen, published staff	25	6	10.7%	1.59

ATL relievers against the LAD lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Grant Holmes	Reliever	LAD (17% of relief)	2.57	0.555 → 0.575	+0.020	0.477 → 0.405	-0.072	0.235 → 0.260	+0.024	0.087 → 0.094	+0.007

Victor Mederos	Reliever	LAD (16% of relief)	2.34	0.481 → 0.498	+0.018	0.531 → 0.454	-0.077	0.215 → 0.237	+0.022	0.057 → 0.062	+0.005

Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	LAD (15% of relief)	2.27	0.744 → 0.772	+0.028	1.044 → 0.901	-0.143	0.247 → 0.273	+0.026	0.149 → 0.161	+0.012

Robert Suarez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	LAD (15% of relief)	2.25	0.817 → 0.847	+0.030	0.599 → 0.510	-0.089	0.179 → 0.198	+0.019	0.022 → 0.024	+0.002

Brent Suter	Reliever	LAD (13% of relief)	1.97	0.439 → 0.455	+0.016	0.412 → 0.351	-0.061	0.147 → 0.163	+0.016	0.054 → 0.058	+0.004

Raisel Iglesias	Reliever	LAD (12% of relief)	1.81	0.383 → 0.397	+0.014	0.460 → 0.395	-0.065	0.143 → 0.159	+0.015	0.052 → 0.056	+0.004

Dylan Dodd	Middle Reliever	LAD (11% of relief)	1.59	0.678 → 0.704	+0.026	1.022 → 0.879	-0.143	0.223 → 0.246	+0.023	0.154 → 0.167	+0.013

20261006_MIL@SD — team layer applied; runs moved away -0.3389 / home -0.3442

Dustin May (RHP, 17.0 BF)
H 0.2249 Below average · SO 0.2307 Average · BB 0.0822 Average · HR 0.0258 Good

Nick Pivetta (RHP, 15.9 BF)
H 0.2091 Average · SO 0.2713 Good · BB 0.0740 Good · HR 0.0265 Good

Warnings: away published staff projects 25.5626 batters faced, outside the real p10-p90 band of 30-45; the exposure here uses the club's real 37.84 per game instead; home starter is projected 15.895 batters faced, outside the real p10-p90 band of 17-27

MIL hitters vs Nick Pivetta and the bullpen

The pipeline applied one club-wide ×0.9153 to every MIL hitter line. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Jackson Chourio	LF	Nick Pivetta + bullpen	4.42	0.971 → 0.918	-0.053	1.169 → 1.406	+0.237	0.342 → 0.316	-0.025	0.169 → 0.148	-0.021

Jake Bauers	1B	Nick Pivetta + bullpen	4.23	0.786 → 0.741	-0.045	1.181 → 1.408	+0.228	0.572 → 0.532	-0.040	0.150 → 0.132	-0.018

William Contreras	C	Nick Pivetta + bullpen	4.18	0.849 → 0.802	-0.048	0.812 → 0.999	+0.187	0.363 → 0.336	-0.027	0.107 → 0.094	-0.013

Brice Turang	2B	Nick Pivetta + bullpen	4.15	0.797 → 0.752	-0.045	1.118 → 1.341	+0.223	0.492 → 0.457	-0.035	0.113 → 0.099	-0.014

Christian Yelich	DH	Nick Pivetta + bullpen	4.06	0.799 → 0.753	-0.046	1.116 → 1.331	+0.215	0.395 → 0.366	-0.029	0.116 → 0.101	-0.015

Garrett Mitchell	CF	Nick Pivetta + bullpen	3.89	0.761 → 0.718	-0.043	1.296 → 1.531	+0.234	0.395 → 0.366	-0.029	0.083 → 0.073	-0.010

Cooper Pratt	SS	Nick Pivetta + bullpen	3.72	0.751 → 0.709	-0.042	0.799 → 0.974	+0.175	0.311 → 0.288	-0.023	0.072 → 0.063	-0.009

Sal Frelick	RF	Nick Pivetta + bullpen	3.63	0.723 → 0.682	-0.042	0.484 → 0.603	+0.118	0.301 → 0.278	-0.022	0.063 → 0.055	-0.008

Joey Ortiz	3B	Nick Pivetta + bullpen	3.68	0.753 → 0.711	-0.042	0.875 → 1.062	+0.187	0.290 → 0.269	-0.021	0.087 → 0.076	-0.011

MIL starter against the SD lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Dustin May	Starter	SD	17.03	3.791 → 3.842	+0.051	4.456 → 4.316	-0.140	1.224 → 1.250	+0.027	0.627 → 0.663	+0.036

MIL bullpen: the full relief corps (7 arms)

Exposure. Starter 17.0 batters faced, bullpen 20.8 (55.0% of the game), from the club's real 37.8 staff batters faced per game over 20 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 33.4% across 2 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
DL Hall	Reliever	pregame bullpen	52	9	21.0%	4.36
JoJo Romero	Long Reliever	pregame bullpen, published staff	44	9	19.1%	3.97
Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	pregame bullpen, published staff	37	10	17.8%	3.71
Trevor Megill	Reliever	pregame bullpen	40	10	12.9%	2.69
Aaron Ashby	Reliever	pregame bullpen	50	10	12.0%	2.50
Abner Uribe	Reliever	pregame bullpen	47	12	9.3%	1.93
Chad Patrick	Reliever	pregame bullpen	36	8	7.9%	1.65

MIL relievers against the SD lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
DL Hall	Reliever	SD (21% of relief)	4.36	0.759 → 0.770	+0.011	1.108 → 1.074	-0.034	0.535 → 0.546	+0.011	0.119 → 0.126	+0.007

JoJo Romero	Long Reliever	SD (19% of relief)	3.97	0.723 → 0.733	+0.010	1.045 → 1.012	-0.033	0.280 → 0.286	+0.006	0.088 → 0.093	+0.005

Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	SD (18% of relief)	3.71	1.050 → 1.064	+0.014	0.737 → 0.713	-0.024	0.399 → 0.408	+0.009	0.058 → 0.061	+0.003

Trevor Megill	Reliever	SD (13% of relief)	2.69	0.521 → 0.528	+0.007	0.725 → 0.703	-0.022	0.195 → 0.200	+0.004	0.057 → 0.060	+0.003

Aaron Ashby	Reliever	SD (12% of relief)	2.50	0.506 → 0.513	+0.007	0.718 → 0.697	-0.021	0.260 → 0.265	+0.005	0.063 → 0.067	+0.004

Abner Uribe	Reliever	SD (9% of relief)	1.93	0.389 → 0.394	+0.005	0.489 → 0.474	-0.015	0.159 → 0.163	+0.004	0.047 → 0.050	+0.003

Chad Patrick	Reliever	SD (8% of relief)	1.65	0.329 → 0.334	+0.005	0.353 → 0.342	-0.011	0.172 → 0.176	+0.004	0.046 → 0.049	+0.003

SD hitters vs Dustin May and the bullpen

The pipeline applied one club-wide ×0.9312 to every SD hitter line. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Fernando Tatis Jr.	RF	Dustin May + bullpen	4.41	0.993 → 0.972	-0.021	0.893 → 0.958	+0.065	0.382 → 0.380	-0.002	0.141 → 0.122	-0.020

Jackson Merrill	CF	Dustin May + bullpen	4.29	0.892 → 0.874	-0.019	1.111 → 1.186	+0.075	0.305 → 0.304	-0.001	0.142 → 0.122	-0.020

Manny Machado	3B	Dustin May + bullpen	4.25	0.818 → 0.800	-0.018	0.906 → 0.969	+0.063	0.455 → 0.453	-0.002	0.161 → 0.139	-0.022

Ty France	1B	Dustin May + bullpen	4.15	0.987 → 0.967	-0.020	0.963 → 1.030	+0.067	0.310 → 0.309	-0.001	0.159 → 0.137	-0.022

Ethan Salas	C	Dustin May + bullpen	3.50	0.742 → 0.726	-0.016	0.841 → 0.899	+0.058	0.262 → 0.261	-0.001	0.110 → 0.095	-0.015

Xander Bogaerts	SS	Dustin May + bullpen	3.89	0.742 → 0.726	-0.016	0.724 → 0.777	+0.053	0.448 → 0.446	-0.002	0.098 → 0.084	-0.014

Dustin Harris	LF	Dustin May + bullpen	3.97	0.858 → 0.840	-0.018	0.629 → 0.673	+0.043	0.310 → 0.309	-0.001	0.072 → 0.062	-0.010

Samad Taylor	DH	Dustin May + bullpen	3.59	0.788 → 0.772	-0.017	0.960 → 1.026	+0.066	0.337 → 0.336	-0.001	0.076 → 0.065	-0.011

Jake Cronenworth	2B	Dustin May + bullpen	3.68	0.728 → 0.712	-0.016	0.831 → 0.887	+0.057	0.338 → 0.336	-0.001	0.082 → 0.070	-0.011

SD starter against the MIL lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Nick Pivetta	Starter	MIL	15.89	3.266 → 3.379	+0.113	4.260 → 4.256	-0.004	0.905 → 1.053	+0.148	0.297 → 0.281	-0.016

SD bullpen: the full relief corps (7 arms)

Exposure. Starter 15.9 batters faced, bullpen 21.7 (57.8% of the game), from the club's real 37.6 staff batters faced per game over 24 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 54.5% across 4 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Jason Adam	Setup Man	pregame bullpen, published staff	15	4	24.3%	5.27
Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	pregame bullpen, published staff	57	13	20.8%	4.52
Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	pregame bullpen, published staff	56	12	19.2%	4.17
Mason Miller	Closer	pregame bullpen, published staff	60	12	13.9%	3.03
Yuki Matsui	Reliever	pregame bullpen	48	13	12.6%	2.74
David Morgan	Reliever	pregame bullpen	37	9	5.9%	1.29
Joe Musgrove	Reliever	pregame bullpen	6	1	3.3%	0.72

SD relievers against the MIL lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Jason Adam	Setup Man	MIL (24% of relief)	5.27	0.752 → 0.778	+0.026	0.507 → 0.507	-0.001	0.385 → 0.448	+0.063	0.111 → 0.105	-0.006

Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	MIL (21% of relief)	4.52	1.069 → 1.107	+0.038	1.436 → 1.435	-0.001	0.419 → 0.487	+0.068	0.108 → 0.102	-0.006

Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	MIL (19% of relief)	4.17	0.784 → 0.811	+0.027	1.468 → 1.467	-0.001	0.497 → 0.578	+0.081	0.052 → 0.049	-0.003

Mason Miller	Closer	MIL (14% of relief)	3.03	0.679 → 0.704	+0.025	1.781 → 1.780	-0.001	0.584 → 0.677	+0.093	0.032 → 0.030	-0.002

Yuki Matsui	Reliever	MIL (13% of relief)	2.74	0.498 → 0.516	+0.018	0.690 → 0.690	-0.001	0.328 → 0.379	+0.051	0.080 → 0.075	-0.004

David Morgan	Reliever	MIL (6% of relief)	1.29	0.284 → 0.294	+0.010	0.301 → 0.301	0	0.145 → 0.168	+0.023	0.033 → 0.031	-0.002

Joe Musgrove	Reliever	MIL (3% of relief)	0.72	0.156 → 0.161	+0.005	0.159 → 0.159	0	0.064 → 0.074	+0.010	0.022 → 0.021	-0.001

Measured from published artifacts and stored KPI values. Nothing recomputed. Per-player adjustments are a measurement of the catalog, not the published line.