MLB Prediction System

Game Forensics

2026-10-06 · per game, per club, per hitter

slate 2026-10-06games 2

Per game

Every stage, every club edge

Each game expands to show the four forecast stages, the gates, the club-level KPI edges the model consumed and both lineups with their strongest readings. Composite z averages a hitter's KPI standard scores; a positive number means above the qualified-population mean on balance.

LAD @ ATL · final 3-1

Stage	Away runs	Home runs	Home win	Note
Production baseline	4.000	3.000	0.493	what the system would have published
KPI-only forecast	3.312	3.504	0.825	44 KPI features alone, no baseline input
Blended	3.464	3.222	0.493	at the fitted weights
Published	4	3	0.495	after rounding and reconciliation
Actual	3	1	-	official final

Applied. Lineup coverage LAD 0.883, ATL 0.889. Value age 9 days. Gates passed 7/7.

Joint-model feature accounting

Numeric coefficient contributions explain the KPI-only forecast. Home-win contributions use log-odds; run targets use runs.

Target	Feature	Raw	Standardised	Contribution	Unit
home_runs	home_off_power	0.5329	+2.154	+0.5722	runs
home_runs	away_off_ground	0.5283	+1.634	+0.3967	runs
home_runs	home_pen_minus_sp	-0.2144	-1.823	-0.3904	runs
home_runs	away_x_suppress	0.3247	+1.324	-0.3180	runs
home_runs	home_sp_command	0.7570	+1.209	-0.2936	runs
home_runs	away_off_top3_contact	1.1341	+1.254	-0.2723	runs
home_runs	away_off_contact	0.3998	+1.574	+0.2554	runs
home_runs	away_pen_minus_sp	-0.2423	-1.782	-0.2550	runs
home_runs	home_platoon_barrel	0.6503	+2.019	-0.2478	runs
home_runs	home_off_worst3_discipline	-0.3315	+0.759	+0.2284	runs
away_runs	home_platoon_barrel	0.6503	+2.019	-0.7956	runs
away_runs	away_sp_command	1.2273	+2.183	-0.6964	runs
away_runs	away_off_contact	0.3998	+1.574	+0.6025	runs
away_runs	away_off_discipline	0.3548	+1.341	+0.4771	runs
away_runs	home_off_top3_contact	1.2701	+1.642	-0.4634	runs
away_runs	home_off_qualified_share	0.8889	+1.083	-0.4006	runs
away_runs	away_sp_whiff	0.7754	+1.372	+0.3512	runs
away_runs	home_off_power	0.5329	+2.154	+0.3498	runs
away_runs	away_x_breaking	0.2511	+1.192	-0.3360	runs
away_runs	home_sp_suppress	0.5757	+0.854	-0.2892	runs
home_win	away_sp_command	1.2273	+2.183	+0.4929	log_odds
home_win	away_off_ground	0.5283	+1.634	+0.3108	log_odds
home_win	home_off_qualified_share	0.8889	+1.083	+0.2348	log_odds
home_win	away_off_discipline	0.3548	+1.341	-0.2026	log_odds
home_win	home_off_top3_contact	1.2701	+1.642	+0.2017	log_odds
home_win	home_platoon_barrel	0.6503	+2.019	+0.1901	log_odds
home_win	home_sp_command	0.7570	+1.209	-0.1792	log_odds
home_win	home_x_ground	0.2122	+1.203	+0.1739	log_odds
home_win	away_off_qualified_share	0.8830	+1.063	-0.1444	log_odds
home_win	away_sp_velocity	-0.2727	-0.627	-0.1056	log_odds

Player neutralisation sensitivity

Each row replaces one player's qualified KPI values with population-mean z=0. Interactions make rows non-additive. Zero means no measured joint-model movement at the fitted weight; it is not a claim of zero individual impact. Player props remain unchanged.

Side	Role	Player ID	Proj PA	Features changed	Away runs	Home runs	Home win
home	batter	686948	4.64882585437208	17	-0.5162	-0.0041	+0.0000
home	batter	660670	4.19806495799856	17	-0.1992	+0.0819	+0.0000
home	batter	621566	4.31673651558272	17	-0.2504	+0.1514	+0.0000
home	batter	645277	4.13917182404904	16	-0.1646	+0.2747	+0.0000
home	batter	671739	4.87070356124936	16	-0.3087	+0.0299	+0.0000
home	batter	643289	4.252920394290561	16	-0.2637	+0.0265	+0.0000
home	batter	657041	3.12137964076768	16	-0.3963	+0.0629	+0.0000
home	batter	663586	3.7918372248275998	16	-0.3391	+0.0468	+0.0000
home	batter	673490	3.13647135372328	5	-0.0275	-0.0039	+0.0000
away	batter	605141	4.17547981914	15	+0.2936	-0.1096	-0.0000
away	batter	518692	4.37457159822	15	+0.2982	+0.0062	-0.0000
away	batter	606192	4.19324300388	17	+0.1343	-0.1496	-0.0000
away	batter	669257	4.08607497466	16	+0.2659	+0.0087	-0.0000
away	batter	660271	4.30942925944	17	-0.0804	-0.3508	-0.0000
away	batter	500743	2.57550671158	15	+0.2190	-0.0641	-0.0000
away	batter	681624	4.44557562152	15	+0.1898	+0.0185	-0.0000
away	batter	663656	4.00718509486	15	+0.1427	-0.0172	-0.0000
away	batter	571771	2.8290309752800002	1	+0.0220	+0.0042	+0.0000
home	pitcher	519242	-	10	-0.5999	-0.1467	+0.0000
away	pitcher	808967	-	10	-0.3359	-0.2916	+0.0000
home	reliever	689266	1.5865471490423426	9	+0.0706	-0.0085	-0.0000
home	reliever	663158	2.2543955382696117	9	-0.0976	+0.0187	+0.0000
home	reliever	669276	2.270684523372716	10	-0.0056	-0.0328	-0.0000
home	reliever	682989	2.342356057826374	9	+0.0322	-0.0049	-0.0000
home	reliever	628452	1.8069914141043515	9	+0.0094	+0.0127	+0.0000
home	reliever	656550	2.569315916929625	10	-0.0048	+0.0134	-0.0000
home	reliever	608718	1.967709400454979	10	-0.0379	-0.0173	-0.0000
away	reliever	592779	1.711003383549504	3	-0.0045	-0.0012	+0.0000
away	reliever	623465	1.3491964069926685	6	+0.0117	+0.0032	-0.0000
away	reliever	681911	1.9060557480061215	10	-0.0156	-0.0111	-0.0000
away	reliever	621242	1.6847268992185604	5	-0.0021	-0.0006	+0.0000
away	reliever	663460	2.10818255055184	10	-0.0019	-0.0026	+0.0000
away	reliever	656945	2.1758950294046553	10	+0.0107	+0.0147	-0.0000
away	reliever	808963	1.6099399822766445	10	+0.0210	+0.0180	-0.0000

Club KPI edges

KPI	LAD	ATL	Edge (H-A)	A spread	H spread
batter_barrel_rate_vs_breaking	-0.044	+0.503	+0.547	0.4953	1.1324
batter_barrel_rate_vs_fastball	+0.468	+0.263	-0.205	0.9782	1.0125
batter_barrel_rate_vs_lhp	+0.393	-0.037	-0.430	0.7635	0.9765
batter_barrel_rate_vs_offspeed	+0.380	+0.501	+0.121	0.9997	0.9105
batter_barrel_rate_vs_rhp	+0.363	+0.626	+0.263	0.8254	1.0219
batter_bat_speed	-0.149	+0.540	+0.689	0.658	0.9712
batter_contact_rate_vs_breaking	+0.345	-0.095	-0.440	0.8911	0.6149
batter_contact_xwoba	+0.520	+0.382	-0.139	1.0402	1.0994
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_breaking	+0.172	+0.337	+0.166	0.7013	0.8844
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_fastball	+0.626	+0.237	-0.389	1.0958	0.9373
batter_exit_velocity_vs_fastball	+0.586	+0.382	-0.204	0.6583	0.7367
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball	+0.247	+0.349	+0.102	0.8424	0.9093
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_slider	+0.743	+0.060	-0.683	0.8115	0.7423
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking	-0.084	+0.282	+0.366	0.7858	1.1832
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball	+0.504	+0.349	-0.155	0.6752	0.9989
batter_home_run_rate	+0.222	+0.486	+0.264	0.7088	0.8843
batter_strikeout_rate	+0.594	+0.128	-0.466	0.8843	0.9206
batter_walk_rate	+0.371	-0.235	-0.606	0.7515	0.8815
batter_whiff_rate_vs_breaking	+0.342	+0.259	-0.084	0.8847	0.628
batter_whiff_rate_vs_fastball	+0.340	-0.078	-0.417	0.9692	0.7383
batter_whiff_rate_vs_lhp	+0.441	+0.295	-0.146	1.185	0.8572
batter_whiff_rate_vs_offspeed	+0.233	+0.515	+0.282	0.7901	0.8373
batter_whiff_rate_vs_rhp	+0.225	+0.120	-0.105	0.8249	0.6084
pitcher_barrel_rate_allowed	+0.917	+0.866	-0.051	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_lhh	+0.845	+0.526	-0.319	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_rhh	+0.534	+0.689	+0.154	-	-
pitcher_contact_xwoba_allowed	+1.337	+0.318	-1.020	-	-
pitcher_ground_ball_rate_induced	+1.147	+0.351	-0.796	-	-
pitcher_hard_hit_rate_allowed	+0.951	+0.918	-0.033	-	-
pitcher_home_run_rate_allowed	+0.213	+1.711	+1.498	-	-
pitcher_release_speed	+0.542	-0.464	-1.007	-	-
pitcher_strikeout_rate	+0.727	+1.736	+1.009	-	-
pitcher_walk_rate	+1.354	+1.930	+0.576	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate	+0.560	+1.143	+0.582	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_breaking	-0.323	+0.998	+1.321	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_fastball	+0.865	+0.988	+0.123	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_lhh	-0.178	+0.850	+1.028	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_rhh	+1.214	+1.000	-0.214	-	-

Lineups and their strongest readings

Batter	Pos	Proj PA	Composite z	Three strongest KPI readings
LAD lineup vs Chris Sale
1. Mookie Betts	SS	4.65	+0.592	whiff_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+2.45), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.95), strikeout_rate Very good (+1.91)
2. Freddie Freeman	1B	4.55	+0.191	whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+1.33), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Good (+1.04), contact_xwoba Good (+0.83)
3. Teoscar Hernández	LF	4.45	+0.079	whiff_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-1.43), barrel_rate_vs_lhp Good (+1.34), contact_xwoba Good (+1.24)
4. Will Smith	C	4.35	+0.775	ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+2.08), contact_xwoba_vs_fastball Very good (+1.81), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Very good (+1.70)
5. Shohei Ohtani	DH	4.25	+0.902	contact_xwoba_vs_fastball Very good (+2.84), contact_xwoba Very good (+2.75), barrel_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+2.67)
6. Miguel Rojas	2B	4.15	-0.055	strikeout_rate Very good (+1.75), contact_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.47), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.45)
7. Andy Pages	CF	4.05	+0.387	ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Very good (+1.31), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Good (+0.90), whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Good (+0.79)
8. Kyle Tucker	RF	3.98	+0.162	ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Very good (+2.24), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Poor (-1.42), walk_rate Very good (+1.35)
9. Enrique Hernández	3B	3.90	-0.026	whiff_rate_vs_lhp Below average (-0.59), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Average (+0.00), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Average (+0.00)
ATL lineup vs Yoshinobu Yamamoto
1. Drake Baldwin	C	4.65	+0.703	barrel_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+2.13), barrel_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+1.90), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.65)
2. Ronald Acuña Jr.	DH	4.55	+0.530	barrel_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.67), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.58), contact_xwoba Very good (+1.41)
3. Matt Olson	1B	4.45	+0.964	home_run_rate Very good (+2.44), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+2.10), barrel_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+1.86)
4. Ozzie Albies	2B	4.35	-0.363	ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+2.18), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-2.04), contact_xwoba Poor (-1.73)
5. Michael Harris II	CF	4.25	+0.428	barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+1.98), walk_rate Poor (-1.90), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Very good (+1.44)
6. Mauricio Dubón	LF	4.15	-0.095	whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+2.29), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+1.92), strikeout_rate Very good (+1.72)
7. Lane Thomas	RF	4.05	-0.026	walk_rate Good (+0.91), barrel_rate_vs_lhp Below average (-0.84), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Below average (-0.80)
8. Austin Riley	3B	3.98	+0.135	strikeout_rate Poor (-1.66), bat_speed Very good (+1.58), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-1.36)
9. Ha-Seong Kim	SS	3.90	+0.009	barrel_rate_vs_lhp Below average (-0.78), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Good (+0.76), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Average (+0.22)

MIL @ SD · final 3-4

Stage	Away runs	Home runs	Home win	Note
Production baseline	4.000	5.000	0.578	what the system would have published
KPI-only forecast	3.566	4.218	0.679	44 KPI features alone, no baseline input
Blended	3.661	4.656	0.578	at the fitted weights
Published	4	5	0.566	after rounding and reconciliation
Actual	3	4	-	official final

Applied. Lineup coverage MIL 1.000, SD 0.684. Value age 9 days. Gates passed 7/7.

Joint-model feature accounting

Numeric coefficient contributions explain the KPI-only forecast. Home-win contributions use log-odds; run targets use runs.

Target	Feature	Raw	Standardised	Contribution	Unit
home_runs	away_off_ground	-0.7382	-2.577	-0.6259	runs
home_runs	away_pen_share	0.5781	+2.680	+0.4215	runs
home_runs	home_sp_velocity	0.9849	+1.338	+0.4170	runs
home_runs	away_off_top3_contact	1.3386	+1.919	-0.4168	runs
home_runs	home_off_worst3_discipline	-0.1770	+1.364	+0.4107	runs
home_runs	away_off_contact_spread	0.9025	+1.040	-0.3375	runs
home_runs	home_off_power	0.2755	+1.020	+0.2711	runs
home_runs	away_pen_minus_sp	0.5723	+1.864	+0.2667	runs
home_runs	away_off_contact	0.3328	+1.283	+0.2082	runs
home_runs	home_off_ground	-0.2120	-0.831	-0.2067	runs
away_runs	home_off_power_spread	0.5852	-0.761	-0.4963	runs
away_runs	away_off_contact	0.3328	+1.283	+0.4912	runs
away_runs	away_off_qualified_share	1.0000	+2.120	+0.4497	runs
away_runs	away_pen_share	0.5781	+2.680	-0.4249	runs
away_runs	away_off_contact_spread	0.9025	+1.040	-0.3596	runs
away_runs	away_sp_command	0.7166	+1.113	-0.3550	runs
away_runs	home_off_discipline_spread	0.2163	-2.308	+0.3484	runs
away_runs	home_off_top3_contact	1.0774	+1.040	-0.2936	runs
away_runs	home_off_qualified_share	0.6842	-0.784	+0.2898	runs
away_runs	home_sp_velocity	0.9849	+1.338	-0.2748	runs
home_win	away_off_ground	-0.7382	-2.577	-0.4903	log_odds
home_win	home_pen_share	0.5499	+2.478	+0.3700	log_odds
home_win	away_off_qualified_share	1.0000	+2.120	-0.2877	log_odds
home_win	away_pen_share	0.5781	+2.680	+0.2673	log_odds
home_win	away_sp_command	0.7166	+1.113	+0.2513	log_odds
home_win	home_sp_velocity	0.9849	+1.338	+0.1991	log_odds
home_win	home_off_qualified_share	0.6842	-0.784	-0.1699	log_odds
home_win	home_off_power_spread	0.5852	-0.761	+0.1350	log_odds
home_win	home_off_top3_contact	1.0774	+1.040	+0.1278	log_odds
home_win	away_off_discipline_spread	0.7304	+1.117	-0.1104	log_odds

Player neutralisation sensitivity

Side	Role	Player ID	Proj PA	Features changed	Away runs	Home runs	Home win
home	batter	665487	5.09996102569976	16	-0.3909	+0.0405	+0.0000
home	batter	701538	5.00577566779572	17	-0.4230	+0.1403	+0.0000
home	batter	592518	4.171367040147	15	-0.0720	+0.0583	+0.0000
home	batter	664034	3.92089683581376	17	-0.2782	+0.0412	+0.0000
home	batter	806956	2.74563800245676	0	+0.0000	+0.0000	+0.0000
home	batter	593428	3.89228540901024	15	-0.2430	-0.0062	+0.0000
home	batter	687957	3.7013223374111197	7	+0.0731	+0.0087	-0.0000
home	batter	669392	3.35362759860292	4	-0.0188	-0.0042	+0.0000
home	batter	630105	3.9073846836684396	15	-0.1395	+0.0457	+0.0000
away	batter	694192	4.85272875964624	16	+0.2178	-0.0830	-0.0000
away	batter	641343	3.99797378899616	17	+0.2221	-0.0860	-0.0000
away	batter	661388	4.74511446403328	15	+0.2481	-0.0350	-0.0000
away	batter	668930	4.6685010248024	15	+0.3256	-0.0375	-0.0000
away	batter	592885	4.14061748498608	16	+0.1420	-0.1003	-0.0000
away	batter	669003	4.1313976228896	17	-0.0238	-0.2694	-0.0000
away	batter	806198	3.49552963964384	15	+0.1018	-0.0921	-0.0000
away	batter	686217	3.34893675202704	15	+0.0977	-0.2833	-0.0000
away	batter	687401	3.5329894872598397	15	+0.0709	-0.1194	-0.0000
home	pitcher	601713	-	10	-0.1624	+0.0920	+0.0000
away	pitcher	669160	-	10	-0.0736	+0.0638	+0.0000
home	reliever	699134	4.171326707000865	9	-0.1796	+0.0434	+0.0000
home	reliever	670970	4.5238331892826285	10	-0.2520	+0.0691	+0.0000
home	reliever	592094	5.278197061365602	9	+0.0447	-0.0269	-0.0000
home	reliever	695243	3.0315557476231643	10	-0.1233	+0.0988	+0.0000
home	reliever	673513	2.7401503889369065	10	+0.0517	+0.0020	-0.0000
home	reliever	688158	1.287823681936042	10	-0.0106	+0.0065	+0.0000
home	reliever	605397	0.719113223854797	0	+0.0000	+0.0000	+0.0000
away	reliever	668941	3.966162559314251	10	+0.0739	-0.0327	-0.0000
away	reliever	622608	3.708123067503444	9	-0.0134	+0.0330	-0.0000
away	reliever	669084	4.364371651614879	10	-0.0453	+0.0128	+0.0000
away	reliever	656730	2.69030062758304	10	-0.0446	+0.0361	+0.0000
away	reliever	676879	2.5023459360171434	10	+0.0287	+0.0046	-0.0000
away	reliever	682842	1.9273320067350375	10	-0.0064	+0.0109	-0.0000
away	reliever	694477	1.6533641512322057	9	-0.0363	+0.0175	+0.0000

Club KPI edges

KPI	MIL	SD	Edge (H-A)	A spread	H spread
batter_barrel_rate_vs_breaking	+0.239	+0.179	-0.060	0.7619	0.7259
batter_barrel_rate_vs_fastball	+0.145	+0.204	+0.058	0.9786	0.7593
batter_barrel_rate_vs_lhp	-0.121	+0.030	+0.151	0.8916	0.8461
batter_barrel_rate_vs_offspeed	-0.074	+0.366	+0.440	0.9461	0.9307
batter_barrel_rate_vs_rhp	+0.266	+0.170	-0.096	0.9633	0.7711
batter_bat_speed	+0.398	+0.340	-0.058	1.0909	0.5719
batter_contact_rate_vs_breaking	+0.455	+0.064	-0.391	1.0959	0.4814
batter_contact_xwoba	+0.434	+0.231	-0.204	1.2127	0.8359
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_breaking	+0.449	-0.030	-0.479	1.0626	0.827
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_fastball	+0.347	+0.377	+0.030	1.1972	0.8943
batter_exit_velocity_vs_fastball	+0.349	+0.547	+0.198	1.0421	0.8562
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball	-0.843	-0.290	+0.553	0.6303	0.9621
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_slider	-0.654	-0.106	+0.548	1.027	0.6443
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking	+0.391	+0.195	-0.197	1.1256	1.0382
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball	+0.365	+0.588	+0.223	1.0829	0.9477
batter_home_run_rate	-0.251	+0.160	+0.411	0.8412	0.6743
batter_strikeout_rate	-0.019	+0.107	+0.126	1.0924	0.3179
batter_walk_rate	+0.626	+0.079	-0.547	0.9329	0.6697
batter_whiff_rate_vs_breaking	+0.165	+0.132	-0.033	1.13	0.2265
batter_whiff_rate_vs_fastball	-0.054	+0.080	+0.134	0.969	0.8004
batter_whiff_rate_vs_lhp	+0.226	+0.044	-0.181	0.6482	0.4891
batter_whiff_rate_vs_offspeed	+0.117	-0.106	-0.223	1.2262	0.3907
batter_whiff_rate_vs_rhp	+0.042	-0.033	-0.075	1.229	0.2204
pitcher_barrel_rate_allowed	-0.090	-0.670	-0.580	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_lhh	+1.040	-0.868	-1.909	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_rhh	-1.263	+0.000	+1.263	-	-
pitcher_contact_xwoba_allowed	-0.745	-0.153	+0.592	-	-
pitcher_ground_ball_rate_induced	-0.105	-1.089	-0.984	-	-
pitcher_hard_hit_rate_allowed	-1.879	+0.015	+1.894	-	-
pitcher_home_run_rate_allowed	+0.882	+0.729	-0.153	-	-
pitcher_release_speed	+1.243	-0.295	-1.537	-	-
pitcher_strikeout_rate	+0.141	+1.152	+1.011	-	-
pitcher_walk_rate	+0.455	+0.943	+0.488	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate	-0.469	-0.775	-0.306	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_breaking	-0.415	+0.218	+0.633	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_fastball	+0.546	-0.653	-1.199	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_lhh	-0.447	-0.676	-0.229	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_rhh	-0.395	-0.612	-0.217	-	-

Lineups and their strongest readings

Batter	Pos	Proj PA	Composite z	Three strongest KPI readings
MIL lineup vs Nick Pivetta
1. Jackson Chourio	LF	4.65	+0.527	exit_velocity_vs_fastball Very good (+1.55), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.49), barrel_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+1.44)
2. Jake Bauers	1B	4.55	+0.658	walk_rate Very good (+2.75), contact_xwoba Very good (+1.77), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.68)
3. William Contreras	C	4.45	+0.312	contact_rate_vs_breaking Good (+1.28), strikeout_rate Good (+1.24), exit_velocity_vs_fastball Good (+0.97)
4. Brice Turang	2B	4.35	+0.313	hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.68), walk_rate Very good (+1.56), contact_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.39)
5. Christian Yelich	DH	4.25	-0.272	ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.10), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Poor (-1.84), whiff_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-1.59)
6. Garrett Mitchell	CF	4.15	+0.227	contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Very good (+2.32), whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Poor (-2.25), contact_xwoba Very good (+2.20)
7. Cooper Pratt	SS	4.05	-0.267	hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Below average (-1.14), home_run_rate Below average (-1.13), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Below average (-1.07)
8. Sal Frelick	RF	3.98	-0.261	whiff_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+2.49), whiff_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+2.35), whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+2.15)
9. Joey Ortiz	3B	3.90	-0.222	ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Poor (-1.42), contact_rate_vs_breaking Good (+1.23), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Below average (-1.16)
SD lineup vs Dustin May
1. Fernando Tatis Jr.	RF	4.65	+0.710	barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+2.48), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.96), exit_velocity_vs_fastball Very good (+1.55)
2. Jackson Merrill	CF	4.55	+0.621	contact_xwoba_vs_fastball Very good (+1.97), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.64), contact_xwoba Very good (+1.56)
3. Manny Machado	3B	4.45	+0.285	hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.75), exit_velocity_vs_fastball Very good (+1.71), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Poor (-1.63)
4. Ty France	1B	4.35	+0.123	hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.64), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Below average (-1.12), home_run_rate Good (+0.83)
5. Ethan Salas	C	4.25	+0.000	barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Average (+0.00), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Average (+0.00), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Average (+0.00)
6. Xander Bogaerts	SS	4.15	-0.151	ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.04), walk_rate Very good (+1.41), barrel_rate_vs_lhp Poor (-1.25)
7. Dustin Harris	LF	4.05	-0.012	whiff_rate_vs_fastball Good (+1.17), barrel_rate_vs_rhp Below average (-1.14), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Average (-0.31)
8. Samad Taylor	DH	3.98	+0.018	whiff_rate_vs_fastball Average (+0.41), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Average (+0.00), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Average (+0.00)
9. Jake Cronenworth	2B	3.90	-0.458	barrel_rate_vs_lhp Poor (-1.52), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Below average (-1.38), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Good (+1.24)

Edge is home club minus away club on that KPI, in standard deviations, after plate-appearance weighting. Spread is the dispersion inside a club, which a mean alone discards and which is roughly three times larger than the between-game variation of the mean itself.
generated 2026-10-07T09:14:24.223789+00:00 · kpi_slate_report_v3