MLB Prediction System

KPI Player Effects

How each KPI adds or removes a hit, a strikeout, a walk or a home run, per player, against the arm he actually faces

Slate 20261004Games 2Schema kpi_player_effects_v2Built 2026-10-06 17:18Z

What this document measures

Every counting stat below has a KPI on both sides of the matchup, measured on the same denominator: a plate appearance. That is what lets the hitter's reading and the starter's reading be combined instead of listed side by side. The combination is the standard Log5 odds ratio, which is exactly additive in log odds, so the hitter's push and the pitcher's push separate cleanly and the remainder is reported rather than absorbed.

Hits use a derived KPI. Hit rate is not in config/kpi_registry.json: registering it would move the registry hash recorded in the model manifest and fail the live layer closed until a retrain. It is computed with the same strict as-of cutoff and the same shrinkage, stored in its own namespace, and never read by the runtime.

These per-player numbers are measured, not published. The live KPI layer moves team runs and the win probability. The hitter lines in the artifact were then scaled by one club-wide ratio, identical for the leadoff hitter and the ninth bat. The per-hitter columns here are what that single ratio discards.

The whole staff, not only the starter. A hitter takes roughly four in ten of his plate appearances against relievers. Each club's bullpen here is the pregame bullpen: the seven busiest healthy relievers of the last 30 days, the same arms the KPI forecast weighted and the simulation pitched, each sharing the relief work by the batters faced the forecast gave him. The bullpen's workload tonight is the club's real mean staff batters faced minus the starter's projection. The published staff alone holds only the relievers one simulation draw used, so it is shown beside the bullpen for comparison, not used.

Reading a delta. Own skill is measured against the league. The opponent effect is measured against the hitter's own rate, which is the only one that may adjust a published line, because the published line already carries his own skill. Adding both to a published line would count the hitter twice.

Coverage. 36 hitter-versus-starter pairings; 25 have both sides above their sample floor on hits and 27 carry a non-zero hit adjustment. A side below its floor falls back to the league rate and is marked n<floor, which is a stated absence of evidence rather than a measured zero. All four outcome metrics have value documents. Handedness source: model bundle pitcher_hands.json.

Largest per-player movements on the slate

Hitter	Club	Metric	Starter faced (+ bullpen)	Published	KPI adjusted, whole staff	Δ	Hitter band	Pitcher band	Game
Matt Olson	ATL	Strikeouts	Blake Snell	1.332	1.636	+0.304	Average	Very good	20261004_ATL@LAD
Drake Baldwin	ATL	Strikeouts	Blake Snell	1.241	1.540	+0.298	Average	Very good	20261004_ATL@LAD
Sean Murphy	ATL	Strikeouts	Blake Snell	1.206	1.491	+0.285	averagen<floor	Very good	20261004_ATL@LAD
Austin Riley	ATL	Strikeouts	Blake Snell	1.369	1.647	+0.279	Poor	Very good	20261004_ATL@LAD
Ronald Acuña Jr.	ATL	Strikeouts	Blake Snell	1.113	1.376	+0.264	Average	Very good	20261004_ATL@LAD
Michael Harris II	ATL	Strikeouts	Blake Snell	1.062	1.325	+0.263	Average	Very good	20261004_ATL@LAD
Jackson Merrill	SD	Strikeouts	Logan Henderson	1.280	1.536	+0.256	Average	Very good	20261004_SD@MIL
Lane Thomas	ATL	Strikeouts	Blake Snell	1.078	1.323	+0.244	Average	Very good	20261004_ATL@LAD
Ty France	SD	Strikeouts	Logan Henderson	1.173	1.416	+0.243	Average	Very good	20261004_SD@MIL
Manny Machado	SD	Strikeouts	Logan Henderson	1.158	1.399	+0.241	Average	Very good	20261004_SD@MIL
Fernando Tatis Jr.	SD	Strikeouts	Logan Henderson	1.073	1.306	+0.233	Good	Very good	20261004_SD@MIL
Luis Campusano	SD	Strikeouts	Logan Henderson	1.044	1.261	+0.217	Average	Very good	20261004_SD@MIL
Jake Cronenworth	SD	Strikeouts	Logan Henderson	1.052	1.266	+0.214	Average	Very good	20261004_SD@MIL
Ozzie Albies	ATL	Strikeouts	Blake Snell	0.792	0.999	+0.207	Good	Very good	20261004_ATL@LAD
Xander Bogaerts	SD	Strikeouts	Logan Henderson	0.869	1.059	+0.190	Good	Very good	20261004_SD@MIL
Gavin Sheets	SD	Strikeouts	Logan Henderson	0.862	1.044	+0.182	Average	Very good	20261004_SD@MIL
Mauricio Dubón	ATL	Strikeouts	Blake Snell	0.664	0.846	+0.181	Very good	Very good	20261004_ATL@LAD
Dustin Harris	SD	Strikeouts	Logan Henderson	0.813	0.980	+0.167	averagen<floor	Very good	20261004_SD@MIL
Fernando Tatis Jr.	SD	Hits	Logan Henderson	0.954	0.864	-0.090	Very good	Very good	20261004_SD@MIL
Ty France	SD	Hits	Logan Henderson	0.918	0.831	-0.087	Very good	Very good	20261004_SD@MIL

Per game

Club Player

20261004_ATL@LAD — team layer withheld (no gate recorded); runs moved away 0 / home 0

Ray Kerr (LHP, 16.4 BF)
H 0.2169 averagen<floor · SO 0.2212 averagen<floor · BB 0.0889 averagen<floor · HR 0.0304 averagen<floor

Blake Snell (LHP, 19.6 BF)
H 0.2029 Good · SO 0.2873 Very good · BB 0.0908 Average · HR 0.0219 Very good

Warnings: away starter is projected 16.3939 batters faced, outside the real p10-p90 band of 17-27; away published staff projects 28.632 batters faced, outside the real p10-p90 band of 30-45; the exposure here uses the club's real 36.91 per game instead

ATL hitters vs Blake Snell and the bullpen

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to ATL hitter lines. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Ronald Acuña Jr.	RF	Blake Snell + bullpen	4.38	0.867 → 0.812	-0.055	1.113 → 1.376	+0.264	0.522 → 0.537	+0.015	0.190 → 0.153	-0.037

Drake Baldwin	C	Blake Snell + bullpen	4.46	1.002 → 0.940	-0.062	1.241 → 1.540	+0.298	0.381 → 0.392	+0.011	0.171 → 0.138	-0.033

Mauricio Dubón	SS	Blake Snell + bullpen	3.93	0.892 → 0.837	-0.056	0.664 → 0.846	+0.181	0.284 → 0.293	+0.009	0.112 → 0.090	-0.022

Sean Murphy	DH	Blake Snell + bullpen	3.65	0.723 → 0.677	-0.046	1.206 → 1.491	+0.285	0.369 → 0.381	+0.011	0.135 → 0.109	-0.026

Ozzie Albies	2B	Blake Snell + bullpen	3.97	0.838 → 0.784	-0.054	0.792 → 0.999	+0.207	0.337 → 0.347	+0.010	0.135 → 0.109	-0.026

Matt Olson	1B	Blake Snell + bullpen	4.16	0.857 → 0.802	-0.054	1.332 → 1.636	+0.304	0.361 → 0.372	+0.011	0.196 → 0.159	-0.038

Michael Harris II	CF	Blake Snell + bullpen	3.99	1.008 → 0.947	-0.062	1.062 → 1.325	+0.263	0.170 → 0.176	+0.005	0.168 → 0.135	-0.033

Austin Riley	3B	Blake Snell + bullpen	3.67	0.679 → 0.635	-0.044	1.369 → 1.647	+0.279	0.336 → 0.346	+0.010	0.115 → 0.093	-0.022

Lane Thomas	LF	Blake Snell + bullpen	3.55	0.674 → 0.630	-0.043	1.078 → 1.323	+0.244	0.409 → 0.421	+0.012	0.105 → 0.085	-0.021

ATL starter against the LAD lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Ray Kerr	Starter	LAD	16.39	2.170 → 2.246	+0.077	1.329 → 1.126	-0.203	1.318 → 1.436	+0.118	0.000 → 0.000	0

ATL bullpen: the full relief corps (10 arms)

Exposure. Starter 16.4 batters faced, bullpen 20.5 (55.6% of the game), from the club's real 36.9 staff batters faced per game over 26 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 42.7% across 3 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Didier Fuentes	Setup Man	published staff, recent relief	59	11	17.6%	3.60
AJ Smith-Shawver	Reliever	recent relief	54	5	16.2%	3.31
Brent Suter	Reliever	recent relief	39	6	11.9%	2.44
Raisel Iglesias	Closer	published staff, recent relief	39	11	11.9%	2.44
Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	published staff, recent relief	33	8	10.2%	2.09
Victor Mederos	Reliever	recent relief	32	8	9.9%	2.04
Grant Holmes	Reliever	recent relief	25	2	7.9%	1.63
Dylan Dodd	Reliever	recent relief	25	6	7.9%	1.63
Robert Suarez	Reliever	recent relief	12	3	4.2%	0.87
Chris Sale	Reliever	recent relief	5	1	2.3%	0.47

ATL relievers against the LAD lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Didier Fuentes	Setup Man	LAD (18% of relief)	3.60	1.062 → 1.100	+0.038	1.026 → 0.880	-0.146	0.198 → 0.215	+0.018	0.175 → 0.188	+0.013

AJ Smith-Shawver	Reliever	LAD (16% of relief)	3.31	0.724 → 0.750	+0.026	0.661 → 0.558	-0.103	0.330 → 0.359	+0.029	0.115 → 0.124	+0.009

Brent Suter	Reliever	LAD (12% of relief)	2.44	0.545 → 0.564	+0.019	0.511 → 0.432	-0.079	0.183 → 0.199	+0.017	0.067 → 0.072	+0.005

Raisel Iglesias	Closer	LAD (12% of relief)	2.44	0.806 → 0.835	+0.029	0.953 → 0.813	-0.140	0.207 → 0.226	+0.019	0.088 → 0.094	+0.006

Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	LAD (10% of relief)	2.09	0.808 → 0.837	+0.029	1.059 → 0.907	-0.151	0.220 → 0.240	+0.020	0.167 → 0.180	+0.012

Victor Mederos	Reliever	LAD (10% of relief)	2.04	0.418 → 0.433	+0.015	0.461 → 0.392	-0.070	0.187 → 0.203	+0.017	0.050 → 0.054	+0.004

Grant Holmes	Reliever	LAD (8% of relief)	1.63	0.352 → 0.364	+0.012	0.302 → 0.255	-0.048	0.149 → 0.162	+0.013	0.055 → 0.059	+0.004

Dylan Dodd	Reliever	LAD (8% of relief)	1.63	0.314 → 0.326	+0.011	0.426 → 0.364	-0.062	0.133 → 0.145	+0.012	0.048 → 0.051	+0.004

Robert Suarez	Reliever	LAD (4% of relief)	0.87	0.180 → 0.187	+0.006	0.181 → 0.153	-0.028	0.061 → 0.066	+0.006	0.022 → 0.024	+0.002

Chris Sale	Reliever	LAD (2% of relief)	0.47	0.096 → 0.100	+0.004	0.137 → 0.118	-0.019	0.027 → 0.029	+0.003	0.010 → 0.011	+0.001

LAD hitters vs Ray Kerr and the bullpen

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to LAD hitter lines. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Shohei Ohtani	DH	Ray Kerr + bullpen	4.35	0.896 → 0.883	-0.013	1.133 → 1.180	+0.048	0.444 → 0.427	-0.017	0.190 → 0.184	-0.007

Will Smith	C	Ray Kerr + bullpen	4.09	0.802 → 0.790	-0.012	0.702 → 0.735	+0.033	0.420 → 0.404	-0.016	0.145 → 0.140	-0.005

Freddie Freeman	1B	Ray Kerr + bullpen	4.13	0.913 → 0.900	-0.013	0.798 → 0.835	+0.037	0.345 → 0.331	-0.014	0.111 → 0.107	-0.004

Mookie Betts	SS	Ray Kerr + bullpen	4.24	0.878 → 0.865	-0.013	0.513 → 0.538	+0.026	0.358 → 0.344	-0.014	0.181 → 0.175	-0.006

Miguel Rojas	3B	Ray Kerr + bullpen	3.21	0.678 → 0.668	-0.010	0.434 → 0.455	+0.021	0.208 → 0.199	-0.008	0.084 → 0.081	-0.003

Teoscar Hernández	LF	Ray Kerr + bullpen	3.95	0.829 → 0.817	-0.012	1.087 → 1.131	+0.044	0.328 → 0.315	-0.013	0.143 → 0.137	-0.005

Kyle Tucker	RF	Ray Kerr + bullpen	3.97	0.771 → 0.759	-0.011	0.747 → 0.782	+0.035	0.370 → 0.355	-0.014	0.119 → 0.114	-0.004

Andy Pages	CF	Ray Kerr + bullpen	3.77	0.795 → 0.783	-0.011	0.772 → 0.807	+0.035	0.318 → 0.306	-0.013	0.152 → 0.147	-0.005

Tommy Edman	2B	Ray Kerr + bullpen	3.58	0.719 → 0.708	-0.011	0.768 → 0.803	+0.034	0.260 → 0.250	-0.011	0.107 → 0.103	-0.004

LAD starter against the ATL lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Blake Snell	Starter	ATL	19.61	3.731 → 3.867	+0.137	5.253 → 5.062	-0.191	1.692 → 1.593	-0.099	0.000 → 0.000	0

LAD bullpen: the full relief corps (8 arms)

Exposure. Starter 19.6 batters faced, bullpen 16.2 (45.2% of the game), from the club's real 35.8 staff batters faced per game over 23 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 39.2% across 3 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Tanner Scott	Closer	published staff, recent relief	38	10	19.5%	3.16
Alex Vesia	Reliever	recent relief	30	10	15.7%	2.54
Evan Phillips	Setup Man	published staff, recent relief	28	9	14.8%	2.39
Brock Stewart	Reliever	recent relief	22	7	11.9%	1.93
Edgardo Henriquez	Reliever	recent relief	21	5	11.4%	1.85
Kris Bubic	Reliever	recent relief	19	5	10.5%	1.70
Edwin Díaz	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	published staff, recent relief	17	5	9.5%	1.54
Roki Sasaki	Reliever	recent relief	11	3	6.7%	1.08

LAD relievers against the ATL lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Tanner Scott	Closer	ATL (20% of relief)	3.16	0.765 → 0.793	+0.028	1.093 → 1.054	-0.039	0.240 → 0.226	-0.014	0.111 → 0.127	+0.017

Alex Vesia	Reliever	ATL (16% of relief)	2.54	0.449 → 0.466	+0.017	0.735 → 0.709	-0.027	0.296 → 0.280	-0.017	0.065 → 0.075	+0.010

Evan Phillips	Setup Man	ATL (15% of relief)	2.39	0.733 → 0.759	+0.026	1.132 → 1.087	-0.045	0.271 → 0.255	-0.016	0.160 → 0.184	+0.024

Brock Stewart	Reliever	ATL (12% of relief)	1.93	0.418 → 0.433	+0.015	0.426 → 0.409	-0.017	0.171 → 0.161	-0.010	0.059 → 0.067	+0.009

Edgardo Henriquez	Reliever	ATL (11% of relief)	1.85	0.348 → 0.361	+0.013	0.509 → 0.491	-0.019	0.181 → 0.170	-0.011	0.039 → 0.045	+0.006

Kris Bubic	Reliever	ATL (10% of relief)	1.70	0.338 → 0.351	+0.012	0.408 → 0.393	-0.016	0.177 → 0.167	-0.010	0.044 → 0.051	+0.007

Edwin Díaz	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	ATL (10% of relief)	1.54	1.029 → 1.066	+0.037	1.339 → 1.286	-0.053	0.484 → 0.456	-0.028	0.131 → 0.151	+0.020

Roki Sasaki	Reliever	ATL (7% of relief)	1.08	0.234 → 0.242	+0.008	0.252 → 0.242	-0.010	0.099 → 0.093	-0.006	0.040 → 0.046	+0.006

20261004_SD@MIL — team layer withheld (no gate recorded); runs moved away 0 / home 0

Michael King (RHP, 24.8 BF)
H 0.2015 Good · SO 0.2111 Average · BB 0.0919 Average · HR 0.0279 Average

Logan Henderson (RHP, 21.7 BF)
H 0.1902 Very good · SO 0.2821 Very good · BB 0.0616 Very good · HR 0.0341 Below average

SD hitters vs Logan Henderson and the bullpen

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to SD hitter lines. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Ty France	1B	Logan Henderson + bullpen	4.11	0.918 → 0.831	-0.087	1.173 → 1.416	+0.243	0.278 → 0.234	-0.044	0.150 → 0.153	+0.003

Manny Machado	3B	Logan Henderson + bullpen	4.25	0.784 → 0.707	-0.077	1.158 → 1.399	+0.241	0.405 → 0.343	-0.062	0.165 → 0.168	+0.003

Gavin Sheets	DH	Logan Henderson + bullpen	3.38	0.624 → 0.562	-0.061	0.862 → 1.044	+0.182	0.337 → 0.285	-0.052	0.124 → 0.127	+0.002

Dustin Harris	LF	Logan Henderson + bullpen	4.16	0.875 → 0.790	-0.085	0.813 → 0.980	+0.167	0.298 → 0.252	-0.046	0.078 → 0.080	+0.002

Fernando Tatis Jr.	RF	Logan Henderson + bullpen	4.32	0.954 → 0.864	-0.090	1.073 → 1.306	+0.233	0.338 → 0.286	-0.053	0.145 → 0.148	+0.003

Jackson Merrill	CF	Logan Henderson + bullpen	4.11	0.878 → 0.794	-0.084	1.280 → 1.536	+0.256	0.264 → 0.222	-0.042	0.149 → 0.152	+0.003

Xander Bogaerts	SS	Logan Henderson + bullpen	3.77	0.708 → 0.638	-0.070	0.869 → 1.059	+0.190	0.390 → 0.330	-0.059	0.088 → 0.090	+0.002

Jake Cronenworth	2B	Logan Henderson + bullpen	3.62	0.696 → 0.628	-0.068	1.052 → 1.266	+0.214	0.302 → 0.255	-0.047	0.076 → 0.077	+0.002

Luis Campusano	C	Logan Henderson + bullpen	3.87	0.777 → 0.702	-0.075	1.044 → 1.261	+0.217	0.363 → 0.308	-0.056	0.113 → 0.115	+0.002

SD starter against the MIL lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Michael King	Starter	MIL	24.81	4.766 → 4.908	+0.142	4.712 → 4.754	+0.042	2.244 → 2.596	+0.352	0.519 → 0.480	-0.040

SD bullpen: the full relief corps (8 arms)

Exposure. Starter 24.8 batters faced, bullpen 12.9 (34.2% of the game), from the club's real 37.7 staff batters faced per game over 25 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 27.7% across 2 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	published staff, recent relief	60	14	18.6%	2.40
Mason Miller	Closer	published staff, recent relief	57	12	17.8%	2.29
Bradgley Rodriguez	Reliever	recent relief	56	12	17.5%	2.25
Yuki Matsui	Reliever	recent relief	46	13	14.5%	1.87
David Morgan	Reliever	recent relief	43	10	13.6%	1.76
Randy Vásquez	Reliever	recent relief	31	4	10.1%	1.30
Jason Adam	Reliever	recent relief	15	4	5.3%	0.69
Joe Musgrove	Reliever	recent relief	6	1	2.7%	0.34

SD relievers against the MIL lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	MIL (19% of relief)	2.40	1.075 → 1.107	+0.032	1.324 → 1.335	+0.011	0.426 → 0.493	+0.068	0.112 → 0.103	-0.009

Mason Miller	Closer	MIL (18% of relief)	2.29	0.656 → 0.676	+0.020	1.621 → 1.632	+0.011	0.444 → 0.514	+0.070	0.035 → 0.033	-0.003

Bradgley Rodriguez	Reliever	MIL (17% of relief)	2.25	0.465 → 0.478	+0.014	0.584 → 0.588	+0.005	0.167 → 0.194	+0.027	0.059 → 0.054	-0.004

Yuki Matsui	Reliever	MIL (14% of relief)	1.87	0.340 → 0.351	+0.010	0.471 → 0.475	+0.004	0.224 → 0.258	+0.034	0.054 → 0.050	-0.004

David Morgan	Reliever	MIL (14% of relief)	1.76	0.388 → 0.399	+0.011	0.411 → 0.415	+0.004	0.198 → 0.228	+0.030	0.045 → 0.042	-0.003

Randy Vásquez	Reliever	MIL (10% of relief)	1.30	0.302 → 0.310	+0.009	0.204 → 0.206	+0.002	0.089 → 0.103	+0.014	0.037 → 0.034	-0.003

Jason Adam	Reliever	MIL (5% of relief)	0.69	0.148 → 0.152	+0.004	0.123 → 0.124	+0.001	0.055 → 0.064	+0.009	0.022 → 0.020	-0.002

Joe Musgrove	Reliever	MIL (3% of relief)	0.34	0.074 → 0.077	+0.002	0.076 → 0.077	+0.001	0.030 → 0.035	+0.005	0.010 → 0.010	-0.001

MIL hitters vs Michael King and the bullpen

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to MIL hitter lines. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Brice Turang	2B	Michael King + bullpen	4.34	0.883 → 0.822	-0.061	1.056 → 1.105	+0.050	0.605 → 0.623	+0.017	0.117 → 0.105	-0.012

William Contreras	C	Michael King + bullpen	4.25	0.845 → 0.786	-0.059	0.750 → 0.792	+0.042	0.436 → 0.449	+0.013	0.113 → 0.101	-0.012

Jake Bauers	1B	Michael King + bullpen	4.30	0.794 → 0.739	-0.056	1.186 → 1.240	+0.054	0.681 → 0.701	+0.019	0.145 → 0.130	-0.015

Jackson Chourio	LF	Michael King + bullpen	4.52	0.981 → 0.915	-0.067	1.190 → 1.247	+0.057	0.415 → 0.427	+0.013	0.168 → 0.151	-0.018

Cooper Pratt	SS	Michael King + bullpen	3.73	0.772 → 0.718	-0.054	0.784 → 0.826	+0.041	0.370 → 0.381	+0.011	0.073 → 0.066	-0.008

Sal Frelick	RF	Michael King + bullpen	3.76	0.803 → 0.746	-0.057	0.498 → 0.527	+0.030	0.353 → 0.364	+0.011	0.065 → 0.058	-0.007

Garrett Mitchell	CF	Michael King + bullpen	4.03	0.807 → 0.750	-0.057	1.290 → 1.344	+0.054	0.483 → 0.497	+0.014	0.087 → 0.078	-0.009

Christian Yelich	DH	Michael King + bullpen	4.06	0.779 → 0.724	-0.055	1.128 → 1.179	+0.051	0.460 → 0.473	+0.014	0.102 → 0.091	-0.011

David Hamilton	3B	Michael King + bullpen	3.53	0.719 → 0.669	-0.051	0.870 → 0.913	+0.043	0.337 → 0.347	+0.010	0.064 → 0.058	-0.007

MIL starter against the SD lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Logan Henderson	Starter	SD	21.68	3.304 → 3.333	+0.029	6.216 → 5.977	-0.238	1.148 → 1.232	+0.085	0.718 → 0.775	+0.057

MIL bullpen: the full relief corps (9 arms)

Exposure. Starter 21.7 batters faced, bullpen 16.1 (42.5% of the game), from the club's real 37.7 staff batters faced per game over 21 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 38.4% across 3 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
DL Hall	Reliever	recent relief	59	10	16.0%	2.57
Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	published staff, recent relief	55	11	15.0%	2.41
JoJo Romero	Reliever	recent relief	45	9	12.4%	1.99
Chad Patrick	Reliever	recent relief	45	9	12.4%	1.99
Abner Uribe	Setup Man	published staff, recent relief	41	11	11.4%	1.83
Antonio Senzatela	Reliever	recent relief	41	11	11.4%	1.83
Trevor Megill	Closer	published staff, recent relief	40	10	11.1%	1.78
Kyle Harrison	Reliever	recent relief	20	4	5.9%	0.95
Shane Drohan	Reliever	recent relief	14	3	4.4%	0.70

MIL relievers against the SD lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
DL Hall	Reliever	SD (16% of relief)	2.57	0.447 → 0.451	+0.004	0.653 → 0.627	-0.026	0.315 → 0.337	+0.022	0.070 → 0.076	+0.006

Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	SD (15% of relief)	2.41	0.864 → 0.872	+0.008	1.516 → 1.458	-0.058	0.543 → 0.581	+0.038	0.123 → 0.133	+0.010

JoJo Romero	Reliever	SD (12% of relief)	1.99	0.430 → 0.434	+0.004	0.450 → 0.431	-0.019	0.158 → 0.170	+0.011	0.060 → 0.065	+0.005

Chad Patrick	Reliever	SD (12% of relief)	1.99	0.397 → 0.400	+0.004	0.425 → 0.408	-0.018	0.207 → 0.222	+0.015	0.055 → 0.060	+0.004

Abner Uribe	Setup Man	SD (11% of relief)	1.83	0.853 → 0.860	+0.007	1.115 → 1.071	-0.044	0.289 → 0.310	+0.021	0.037 → 0.040	+0.003

Antonio Senzatela	Reliever	SD (11% of relief)	1.83	0.415 → 0.419	+0.004	0.361 → 0.345	-0.015	0.155 → 0.166	+0.011	0.048 → 0.051	+0.004

Trevor Megill	Closer	SD (11% of relief)	1.78	0.641 → 0.647	+0.006	1.136 → 1.092	-0.044	0.207 → 0.222	+0.015	0.011 → 0.012	+0.001

Kyle Harrison	Reliever	SD (6% of relief)	0.95	0.219 → 0.221	+0.002	0.259 → 0.249	-0.010	0.072 → 0.077	+0.005	0.034 → 0.036	+0.003

Shane Drohan	Reliever	SD (4% of relief)	0.70	0.159 → 0.160	+0.001	0.166 → 0.159	-0.007	0.060 → 0.064	+0.004	0.020 → 0.021	+0.002

Measured from published artifacts and stored KPI values. Nothing recomputed. Per-player adjustments are a measurement of the catalog, not the published line.