MLB Prediction System

Game Forensics

2026-10-04 · per game, per club, per hitter

slate 2026-10-04games 2

Per game

Every stage, every club edge

Each game expands to show the four forecast stages, the gates, the club-level KPI edges the model consumed and both lineups with their strongest readings. Composite z averages a hitter's KPI standard scores; a positive number means above the qualified-population mean on balance.

ATL @ LAD · final 3-2

Club KPI edges

KPI	ATL	LAD	Edge (H-A)	A spread	H spread
batter_barrel_rate_vs_breaking	+0.502	+0.001	-0.501	1.1324	0.5884
batter_barrel_rate_vs_fastball	+0.262	+0.652	+0.390	1.0125	1.0501
batter_barrel_rate_vs_lhp	-0.035	+0.549	+0.584	0.9765	0.7375
batter_barrel_rate_vs_offspeed	+0.503	+0.575	+0.071	0.9105	0.904
batter_barrel_rate_vs_rhp	+0.624	+0.416	-0.208	1.0219	0.9621
batter_bat_speed	+0.540	-0.051	-0.591	0.9712	0.575
batter_contact_rate_vs_breaking	-0.093	-0.004	+0.089	0.6149	0.9499
batter_contact_xwoba	+0.382	+0.674	+0.292	1.0994	1.0153
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_breaking	+0.338	+0.184	-0.154	0.8844	0.761
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_fastball	+0.235	+0.831	+0.596	0.9373	1.1149
batter_exit_velocity_vs_fastball	+0.379	+0.641	+0.262	0.7367	0.7096
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball	+0.351	+0.480	+0.129	0.9093	0.9693
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_slider	+0.057	+0.752	+0.695	0.7423	0.8428
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking	+0.283	-0.070	-0.353	1.1832	0.9187
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball	+0.345	+0.559	+0.213	0.9989	0.8229
batter_home_run_rate	+0.486	+0.459	-0.027	0.8843	0.7683
batter_strikeout_rate	+0.128	+0.378	+0.250	0.9206	0.8355
batter_walk_rate	-0.233	+0.501	+0.734	0.8815	0.7457
batter_whiff_rate_vs_breaking	+0.260	+0.170	-0.090	0.628	0.9349
batter_whiff_rate_vs_fastball	-0.082	+0.268	+0.349	0.7383	0.8894
batter_whiff_rate_vs_lhp	+0.293	+0.234	-0.060	0.8572	1.1983
batter_whiff_rate_vs_offspeed	+0.513	+0.206	-0.307	0.8373	0.8871
batter_whiff_rate_vs_rhp	+0.118	+0.231	+0.112	0.6084	0.8617
pitcher_barrel_rate_allowed	+0.000	+1.573	+1.573	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_lhh	+0.000	+0.000	+0.000	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_rhh	+0.000	+1.243	+1.243	-	-
pitcher_contact_xwoba_allowed	+0.000	+2.119	+2.119	-	-
pitcher_ground_ball_rate_induced	+0.000	+0.104	+0.104	-	-
pitcher_hard_hit_rate_allowed	+0.000	+3.194	+3.194	-	-
pitcher_home_run_rate_allowed	+0.000	+1.718	+1.718	-	-
pitcher_release_speed	+0.000	-0.038	-0.038	-	-
pitcher_strikeout_rate	+0.000	+1.550	+1.550	-	-
pitcher_walk_rate	+0.000	-0.052	-0.052	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate	+0.000	+1.820	+1.820	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_breaking	+0.000	+1.647	+1.647	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_fastball	+0.000	+0.501	+0.501	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_lhh	+0.000	+0.000	+0.000	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_rhh	+0.000	+1.697	+1.697	-	-

Lineups and their strongest readings

Batter	Pos	Proj PA	Composite z	Three strongest KPI readings
ATL lineup vs Blake Snell
1. Ronald Acuña Jr.	DH	4.65	+0.530	barrel_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.67), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.58), contact_xwoba Very good (+1.41)
2. Drake Baldwin	C	4.55	+0.703	barrel_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+2.13), barrel_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+1.90), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.65)
3. Matt Olson	1B	4.45	+0.964	home_run_rate Very good (+2.44), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+2.10), barrel_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+1.86)
4. Ozzie Albies	2B	4.35	-0.363	ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+2.18), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-2.04), contact_xwoba Poor (-1.73)
5. Michael Harris II	CF	4.25	+0.428	barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+1.98), walk_rate Poor (-1.90), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Very good (+1.44)
6. Mauricio Dubón	LF	4.15	-0.095	whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+2.29), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+1.92), strikeout_rate Very good (+1.72)
7. Lane Thomas	RF	4.05	-0.026	walk_rate Good (+0.91), barrel_rate_vs_lhp Below average (-0.84), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Below average (-0.80)
8. Austin Riley	3B	3.98	+0.135	strikeout_rate Poor (-1.66), bat_speed Very good (+1.58), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-1.36)
9. Ha-Seong Kim	SS	3.90	+0.009	barrel_rate_vs_lhp Below average (-0.78), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Good (+0.76), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Average (+0.22)
LAD lineup vs Ray Kerr
1. Mookie Betts	SS	4.65	+0.592	whiff_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+2.45), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.95), strikeout_rate Very good (+1.91)
2. Shohei Ohtani	DH	4.55	+0.902	contact_xwoba_vs_fastball Very good (+2.84), contact_xwoba Very good (+2.75), barrel_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+2.67)
3. Will Smith	C	4.45	+0.775	ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+2.08), contact_xwoba_vs_fastball Very good (+1.81), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Very good (+1.70)
4. Freddie Freeman	1B	4.35	+0.191	whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+1.33), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Good (+1.04), contact_xwoba Good (+0.83)
5. Teoscar Hernández	LF	4.25	+0.079	whiff_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-1.43), barrel_rate_vs_lhp Good (+1.34), contact_xwoba Good (+1.24)
6. Kyle Tucker	RF	4.15	+0.162	ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Very good (+2.24), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Poor (-1.42), walk_rate Very good (+1.35)
7. Andy Pages	CF	4.05	+0.387	ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Very good (+1.31), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Good (+0.90), whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Good (+0.79)
8. Max Muncy	3B	3.98	+0.515	ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.89), contact_xwoba_vs_fastball Very good (+1.71), barrel_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.67)
9. Tommy Edman	2B	3.90	-0.353	hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Below average (-1.22), barrel_rate_vs_breaking Below average (-0.93), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Below average (-0.92)

SD @ MIL · final 3-4

Club KPI edges

KPI	SD	MIL	Edge (H-A)	A spread	H spread
batter_barrel_rate_vs_breaking	+0.078	+0.280	+0.202	0.8003	0.7263
batter_barrel_rate_vs_fastball	+0.249	+0.093	-0.156	0.7648	1.0426
batter_barrel_rate_vs_lhp	+0.030	-0.141	-0.171	0.8461	0.9043
batter_barrel_rate_vs_offspeed	+0.359	-0.098	-0.457	0.9307	0.9612
batter_barrel_rate_vs_rhp	+0.177	+0.249	+0.072	0.7713	0.9815
batter_bat_speed	+0.337	+0.086	-0.251	0.5705	1.4162
batter_contact_rate_vs_breaking	+0.002	+0.308	+0.306	0.521	1.0887
batter_contact_xwoba	+0.203	+0.399	+0.195	0.8413	1.2531
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_breaking	-0.133	+0.411	+0.544	0.8715	1.1313
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_fastball	+0.365	+0.297	-0.068	0.8933	1.2399
batter_exit_velocity_vs_fastball	+0.527	+0.059	-0.468	0.861	1.4548
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball	-0.198	-0.724	-0.526	1.0355	0.6774
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_slider	-0.124	-0.729	-0.605	0.6436	1.104
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking	+0.123	+0.332	+0.209	1.0657	1.2164
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball	+0.573	+0.189	-0.384	0.9484	1.2291
batter_home_run_rate	+0.163	-0.337	-0.499	0.6733	0.911
batter_strikeout_rate	+0.117	-0.061	-0.178	0.3159	1.0857
batter_walk_rate	+0.183	+0.607	+0.424	0.7209	0.951
batter_whiff_rate_vs_breaking	+0.063	+0.093	+0.030	0.3342	1.1334
batter_whiff_rate_vs_fastball	+0.036	-0.050	-0.086	0.7991	0.9748
batter_whiff_rate_vs_lhp	+0.045	+0.099	+0.054	0.4891	0.6265
batter_whiff_rate_vs_offspeed	-0.108	+0.164	+0.272	0.3907	1.2258
batter_whiff_rate_vs_rhp	-0.072	+0.057	+0.129	0.2504	1.234
pitcher_barrel_rate_allowed	-0.463	-0.451	+0.012	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_lhh	-1.045	-0.742	+0.303	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_rhh	+0.528	+0.149	-0.379	-	-
pitcher_contact_xwoba_allowed	-0.041	+0.715	+0.756	-	-
pitcher_ground_ball_rate_induced	+0.428	-1.527	-1.955	-	-
pitcher_hard_hit_rate_allowed	+1.901	+0.396	-1.504	-	-
pitcher_home_run_rate_allowed	+0.442	-0.881	-1.323	-	-
pitcher_release_speed	-0.339	-0.589	-0.249	-	-
pitcher_strikeout_rate	-0.345	+1.421	+1.766	-	-
pitcher_walk_rate	-0.116	+1.675	+1.791	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate	-0.249	+0.017	+0.266	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_breaking	-0.967	+0.000	+0.967	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_fastball	+0.417	-0.172	-0.589	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_lhh	-0.451	+0.161	+0.612	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_rhh	+0.106	-0.195	-0.300	-	-

Lineups and their strongest readings

Batter	Pos	Proj PA	Composite z	Three strongest KPI readings
SD lineup vs Logan Henderson
1. Fernando Tatis Jr.	RF	4.65	+0.710	barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+2.48), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.96), exit_velocity_vs_fastball Very good (+1.55)
2. Dustin Harris	LF	4.55	-0.012	whiff_rate_vs_fastball Good (+1.17), barrel_rate_vs_rhp Below average (-1.14), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Average (-0.31)
3. Manny Machado	3B	4.45	+0.285	hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.75), exit_velocity_vs_fastball Very good (+1.71), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Poor (-1.63)
4. Ty France	1B	4.35	+0.123	hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.64), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Below average (-1.12), home_run_rate Good (+0.83)
5. Jackson Merrill	CF	4.25	+0.621	contact_xwoba_vs_fastball Very good (+1.97), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.64), contact_xwoba Very good (+1.56)
6. Ethan Salas	DH	4.15	+0.000	barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Average (+0.00), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Average (+0.00), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Average (+0.00)
7. Xander Bogaerts	SS	4.05	-0.151	ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.04), walk_rate Very good (+1.41), barrel_rate_vs_lhp Poor (-1.25)
8. Luis Campusano	C	3.98	-0.076	walk_rate Good (+0.95), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Below average (-0.94), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Good (+0.93)
9. Jake Cronenworth	2B	3.90	-0.458	barrel_rate_vs_lhp Poor (-1.52), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Below average (-1.38), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Good (+1.24)
MIL lineup vs Michael King
1. Jackson Chourio	LF	4.65	+0.527	exit_velocity_vs_fastball Very good (+1.55), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.49), barrel_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+1.44)
2. Brice Turang	2B	4.55	+0.313	hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.68), walk_rate Very good (+1.56), contact_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.39)
3. Jake Bauers	1B	4.45	+0.658	walk_rate Very good (+2.75), contact_xwoba Very good (+1.77), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.68)
4. William Contreras	C	4.35	+0.312	contact_rate_vs_breaking Good (+1.28), strikeout_rate Good (+1.24), exit_velocity_vs_fastball Good (+0.97)
5. Garrett Mitchell	CF	4.25	+0.227	contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Very good (+2.32), whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Poor (-2.25), contact_xwoba Very good (+2.20)
6. Christian Yelich	DH	4.15	-0.272	ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.10), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Poor (-1.84), whiff_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-1.59)
7. Sal Frelick	RF	4.05	-0.261	whiff_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+2.49), whiff_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+2.35), whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+2.15)
8. Cooper Pratt	SS	3.98	-0.267	hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Below average (-1.14), home_run_rate Below average (-1.13), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Below average (-1.07)
9. David Hamilton	3B	3.90	-0.831	exit_velocity_vs_fastball Poor (-2.90), bat_speed Poor (-2.52), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Poor (-2.12)

Edge is home club minus away club on that KPI, in standard deviations, after plate-appearance weighting. Spread is the dispersion inside a club, which a mean alone discards and which is roughly three times larger than the between-game variation of the mean itself.
generated 2026-10-06T17:18:14.892201+00:00 · kpi_slate_report_v3