MLB Prediction System

Game Forensics

2026-09-29 · per game, per club, per hitter

slate 2026-09-29games 4

Per game

Every stage, every club edge

Each game expands to show the four forecast stages, the gates, the club-level KPI edges the model consumed and both lineups with their strongest readings. Composite z averages a hitter's KPI standard scores; a positive number means above the qualified-population mean on balance.

BOS @ NYY · final 0-9

Club KPI edges

KPI	BOS	NYY	Edge (H-A)	A spread	H spread
batter_barrel_rate_vs_breaking	-0.113	+0.328	+0.441	0.9244	0.8798
batter_barrel_rate_vs_fastball	+0.078	+0.611	+0.533	0.9533	1.0368
batter_barrel_rate_vs_lhp	+0.153	+0.323	+0.170	0.8473	0.8351
batter_barrel_rate_vs_offspeed	+0.532	+0.530	-0.001	1.2948	0.801
batter_barrel_rate_vs_rhp	-0.074	+0.566	+0.640	0.8733	0.8153
batter_bat_speed	+0.138	+0.294	+0.156	1.0542	0.6718
batter_contact_rate_vs_breaking	+0.370	-0.373	-0.742	0.7737	0.9108
batter_contact_xwoba	+0.064	+0.533	+0.469	0.9701	0.942
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_breaking	-0.102	+0.599	+0.701	0.9194	1.1146
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_fastball	+0.111	+0.431	+0.320	0.8846	0.9264
batter_exit_velocity_vs_fastball	-0.121	+0.437	+0.558	1.0503	0.6213
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball	+0.034	+0.188	+0.154	0.7685	1.0205
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_slider	-0.116	+0.218	+0.334	0.9478	0.8262
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking	-0.428	+0.618	+1.045	0.7885	0.8422
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball	-0.040	+0.277	+0.317	0.9733	0.5968
batter_home_run_rate	-0.090	+0.444	+0.535	0.7087	1.0055
batter_strikeout_rate	-0.102	-0.384	-0.281	0.8998	0.8597
batter_walk_rate	-0.075	+0.201	+0.276	0.9696	0.7599
batter_whiff_rate_vs_breaking	+0.172	-0.133	-0.305	1.0179	0.6593
batter_whiff_rate_vs_fastball	-0.077	-0.594	-0.517	0.9266	0.9046
batter_whiff_rate_vs_lhp	-0.000	-0.084	-0.084	0.9913	0.6599
batter_whiff_rate_vs_offspeed	-0.102	-0.150	-0.048	0.9215	0.8543
batter_whiff_rate_vs_rhp	-0.061	-0.438	-0.377	0.9102	0.8482
pitcher_barrel_rate_allowed	+1.124	+0.256	-0.868	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_lhh	+1.362	+0.120	-1.242	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_rhh	+0.428	+0.274	-0.154	-	-
pitcher_contact_xwoba_allowed	+1.554	+0.635	-0.919	-	-
pitcher_ground_ball_rate_induced	-0.722	+0.315	+1.037	-	-
pitcher_hard_hit_rate_allowed	+1.160	+0.047	-1.113	-	-
pitcher_home_run_rate_allowed	+0.585	+1.079	+0.495	-	-
pitcher_release_speed	+1.347	+2.722	+1.375	-	-
pitcher_strikeout_rate	+1.276	+1.938	+0.663	-	-
pitcher_walk_rate	+1.118	+1.171	+0.053	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate	+0.449	+0.901	+0.453	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_breaking	+1.265	+1.357	+0.091	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_fastball	+1.683	+2.190	+0.508	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_lhh	+0.579	+1.306	+0.726	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_rhh	+0.250	+0.173	-0.077	-	-

Lineups and their strongest readings

Batter	Pos	Proj PA	Composite z	Three strongest KPI readings
BOS lineup vs Cam Schlittler
1. Roman Anthony	DH	4.65	+0.105	barrel_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.49), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.46), exit_velocity_vs_fastball Very good (+1.46)
2. Adley Rutschman	C	4.55	+0.346	whiff_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+1.74), whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+1.45), whiff_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.39)
3. Willson Contreras	1B	4.45	+0.477	barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+3.29), barrel_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+2.16), contact_xwoba Very good (+1.76)
4. Wilyer Abreu	RF	4.35	+0.735	ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Very good (+2.00), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+1.91), barrel_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.58)
5. Ceddanne Rafaela	CF	4.25	-0.379	walk_rate Poor (-1.83), barrel_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-1.29), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Good (+1.24)
6. Nick Sogard	2B	4.15	-0.183	hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-1.38), exit_velocity_vs_fastball Below average (-1.13), bat_speed Below average (-0.99)
7. Jarren Duran	LF	4.05	-0.173	whiff_rate_vs_rhp Poor (-1.36), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-1.30), whiff_rate_vs_breaking Below average (-1.28)
8. Trevor Story	SS	3.98	-0.517	strikeout_rate Poor (-1.64), walk_rate Poor (-1.47), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Poor (-1.42)
9. Caleb Durbin	3B	3.90	-0.515	exit_velocity_vs_fastball Poor (-2.25), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-2.20), contact_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+2.01)
NYY lineup vs Payton Tolle
1. Paul Goldschmidt	1B	4.65	+0.072	barrel_rate_vs_lhp Good (+1.42), home_run_rate Good (+1.17), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Below average (-1.00)
2. Ben Rice	DH	4.55	+0.831	home_run_rate Very good (+2.65), barrel_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+2.15), contact_xwoba_vs_fastball Very good (+2.07)
3. Heliot Ramos	RF	4.45	+0.320	barrel_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.92), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.86), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Very good (+1.84)
4. Cody Bellinger	LF	4.35	+0.273	ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Very good (+1.76), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Good (+1.25), strikeout_rate Good (+1.07)
5. George Lombard Jr.	SS	4.25	-0.030	whiff_rate_vs_fastball Below average (-1.23), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Average (+0.45), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Average (+0.10)
6. Amed Rosario	3B	4.15	+0.164	contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Very good (+1.73), barrel_rate_vs_breaking Good (+1.00), walk_rate Below average (-0.91)
7. Anthony Volpe	2B	4.05	-0.184	home_run_rate Poor (-1.26), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Below average (-1.03), contact_rate_vs_breaking Good (+1.00)
8. Spencer Jones	CF	3.98	+0.285	whiff_rate_vs_rhp Poor (-2.59), barrel_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+2.40), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.37)
9. Austin Wells	C	3.90	-0.068	contact_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-1.54), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.33), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Poor (-1.21)

CHC @ SD · final 0-8

Club KPI edges

KPI	CHC	SD	Edge (H-A)	A spread	H spread
batter_barrel_rate_vs_breaking	+0.011	+0.074	+0.063	1.0194	0.8006
batter_barrel_rate_vs_fastball	+0.101	+0.249	+0.148	0.9905	0.7648
batter_barrel_rate_vs_lhp	-0.009	-0.014	-0.004	0.6739	0.8523
batter_barrel_rate_vs_offspeed	+0.385	+0.394	+0.009	1.076	0.912
batter_barrel_rate_vs_rhp	+0.108	+0.312	+0.204	1.0592	0.6259
batter_bat_speed	-0.147	+0.337	+0.484	0.7366	0.5705
batter_contact_rate_vs_breaking	-0.264	+0.002	+0.267	1.0457	0.521
batter_contact_xwoba	+0.133	+0.202	+0.069	0.9564	0.8413
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_breaking	+0.206	-0.136	-0.342	1.151	0.8712
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_fastball	-0.038	+0.364	+0.403	0.7041	0.8935
batter_exit_velocity_vs_fastball	+0.048	+0.529	+0.480	0.548	0.861
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball	+0.440	-0.202	-0.641	0.6027	1.0356
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_slider	+0.461	-0.124	-0.584	1.1588	0.6431
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking	+0.124	+0.122	-0.002	0.9147	1.065
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball	-0.044	+0.574	+0.618	0.6109	0.9486
batter_home_run_rate	+0.447	+0.161	-0.286	1.1382	0.6733
batter_strikeout_rate	+0.118	+0.119	+0.001	1.0889	0.3159
batter_walk_rate	+0.752	+0.188	-0.564	0.7868	0.7209
batter_whiff_rate_vs_breaking	+0.193	+0.062	-0.131	0.7293	0.3342
batter_whiff_rate_vs_fastball	+0.510	-0.059	-0.569	1.1152	0.7102
batter_whiff_rate_vs_lhp	+0.345	-0.040	-0.385	1.0347	0.5499
batter_whiff_rate_vs_offspeed	-0.200	-0.111	+0.089	0.8992	0.3907
batter_whiff_rate_vs_rhp	+0.206	-0.072	-0.279	0.9249	0.2504
pitcher_barrel_rate_allowed	-0.024	-0.463	-0.439	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_lhh	+1.013	-1.045	-2.058	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_rhh	-0.713	+0.528	+1.241	-	-
pitcher_contact_xwoba_allowed	-0.335	-0.041	+0.294	-	-
pitcher_ground_ball_rate_induced	+0.087	+0.428	+0.340	-	-
pitcher_hard_hit_rate_allowed	+0.295	+1.901	+1.605	-	-
pitcher_home_run_rate_allowed	+0.086	+0.442	+0.355	-	-
pitcher_release_speed	-2.001	-0.339	+1.661	-	-
pitcher_strikeout_rate	-0.883	-0.345	+0.537	-	-
pitcher_walk_rate	+0.691	-0.116	-0.806	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate	-0.590	-0.249	+0.341	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_breaking	+0.080	-0.967	-1.048	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_fastball	-0.895	+0.417	+1.312	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_lhh	+0.197	-0.451	-0.648	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_rhh	-0.877	+0.106	+0.983	-	-

Lineups and their strongest readings

Batter	Pos	Proj PA	Composite z	Three strongest KPI readings
CHC lineup vs Michael King
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	4.65	+0.939	home_run_rate Very good (+2.73), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Very good (+2.62), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Very good (+2.39)
2. Seiya Suzuki	RF	4.55	+0.474	walk_rate Very good (+1.46), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Very good (+1.42), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Good (+1.25)
3. Michael Busch	1B	4.45	-0.030	whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Poor (-1.60), walk_rate Very good (+1.52), bat_speed Poor (-1.37)
4. Alex Bregman	3B	4.35	+0.324	whiff_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.84), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+1.69), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Very good (+1.63)
5. Ian Happ	LF	4.25	+0.244	walk_rate Very good (+1.47), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Very good (+1.44), strikeout_rate Below average (-1.35)
6. Michael Conforto	DH	4.15	+0.139	contact_rate_vs_breaking Below average (-1.23), home_run_rate Good (+1.11), whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Below average (-1.06)
7. Nico Hoerner	2B	4.05	-0.293	strikeout_rate Very good (+2.34), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+2.10), whiff_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+2.03)
8. Carson Kelly	C	3.98	-0.120	whiff_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.56), barrel_rate_vs_rhp Poor (-1.21), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Below average (-1.08)
9. Dansby Swanson	SS	3.90	-0.326	whiff_rate_vs_lhp Poor (-1.49), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Below average (-1.33), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Poor (-1.18)
SD lineup vs Matthew Boyd
1. Fernando Tatis Jr.	RF	4.65	+0.711	barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+2.48), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.96), exit_velocity_vs_fastball Very good (+1.55)
2. Austin Hays	DH	4.55	-0.046	whiff_rate_vs_lhp Below average (-0.73), barrel_rate_vs_lhp Average (-0.34), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Average (+0.00)
3. Manny Machado	3B	4.45	+0.285	hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.75), exit_velocity_vs_fastball Very good (+1.71), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Poor (-1.63)
4. Ty France	1B	4.35	+0.123	hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.64), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Below average (-1.12), home_run_rate Good (+0.83)
5. Jackson Merrill	CF	4.25	+0.621	contact_xwoba_vs_fastball Very good (+1.98), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.64), contact_xwoba Very good (+1.56)
6. Xander Bogaerts	SS	4.15	-0.151	ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.04), walk_rate Very good (+1.41), barrel_rate_vs_lhp Poor (-1.25)
7. Luis Campusano	C	4.05	-0.076	walk_rate Good (+0.95), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Below average (-0.93), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Good (+0.93)
8. Samad Taylor	LF	3.98	+0.018	whiff_rate_vs_fastball Average (+0.41), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Average (+0.00), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Average (+0.00)
9. Jake Cronenworth	2B	3.90	-0.458	barrel_rate_vs_lhp Poor (-1.52), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Below average (-1.38), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Good (+1.24)

CHW @ HOU · final 6-3

Club KPI edges

KPI	CHW	HOU	Edge (H-A)	A spread	H spread
batter_barrel_rate_vs_breaking	-0.000	+0.321	+0.321	1.1203	1.1698
batter_barrel_rate_vs_fastball	+0.474	+0.191	-0.282	1.2492	0.9871
batter_barrel_rate_vs_lhp	+0.164	+0.076	-0.088	1.1623	0.6403
batter_barrel_rate_vs_offspeed	+0.128	+0.222	+0.093	1.1314	0.9875
batter_barrel_rate_vs_rhp	+0.342	+0.295	-0.047	1.2355	0.9941
batter_bat_speed	-0.220	+0.396	+0.616	1.1706	1.2629
batter_contact_rate_vs_breaking	-0.095	-0.028	+0.067	1.0949	1.0154
batter_contact_xwoba	+0.357	+0.160	-0.197	0.9415	1.186
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_breaking	-0.009	+0.068	+0.077	0.8765	1.2294
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_fastball	+0.434	+0.212	-0.222	0.9291	1.2095
batter_exit_velocity_vs_fastball	+0.137	+0.227	+0.090	1.0232	0.9413
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball	+0.146	+0.079	-0.068	1.2746	1.2007
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_slider	-0.071	-0.138	-0.067	1.1865	0.9971
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking	+0.220	-0.257	-0.476	1.0949	0.8458
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball	+0.195	+0.142	-0.053	0.8719	0.9212
batter_home_run_rate	+0.259	+0.670	+0.410	1.2235	0.7982
batter_strikeout_rate	-0.187	+0.106	+0.293	1.2093	0.8946
batter_walk_rate	+0.493	-0.102	-0.595	1.0995	1.2167
batter_whiff_rate_vs_breaking	+0.190	-0.271	-0.461	1.3215	1.2198
batter_whiff_rate_vs_fastball	-0.767	+0.026	+0.793	1.4112	0.925
batter_whiff_rate_vs_lhp	-0.284	+0.073	+0.357	1.3723	0.725
batter_whiff_rate_vs_offspeed	+0.004	-0.086	-0.089	1.012	1.1844
batter_whiff_rate_vs_rhp	-0.205	-0.148	+0.057	1.3514	1.0732
pitcher_barrel_rate_allowed	+0.861	-1.535	-2.396	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_lhh	+0.000	-1.355	-1.355	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_rhh	+0.000	-0.847	-0.847	-	-
pitcher_contact_xwoba_allowed	+0.000	-0.212	-0.212	-	-
pitcher_ground_ball_rate_induced	+0.000	-1.180	-1.180	-	-
pitcher_hard_hit_rate_allowed	+0.000	+0.306	+0.306	-	-
pitcher_home_run_rate_allowed	+0.000	-0.295	-0.295	-	-
pitcher_release_speed	-0.162	+0.402	+0.564	-	-
pitcher_strikeout_rate	+0.000	+0.180	+0.180	-	-
pitcher_walk_rate	+0.000	-0.614	-0.614	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate	+0.000	+0.481	+0.481	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_breaking	+1.116	-0.405	-1.522	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_fastball	+0.000	+1.085	+1.085	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_lhh	+0.000	+0.353	+0.353	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_rhh	+1.977	+0.479	-1.498	-	-

Lineups and their strongest readings

Batter	Pos	Proj PA	Composite z	Three strongest KPI readings
CHW lineup vs AJ Blubaugh
1. Sam Antonacci	LF	4.65	-0.071	whiff_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+2.29), whiff_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+1.73), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Poor (-1.56)
2. Kyle Teel	C	4.55	-0.090	whiff_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.07), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Average (+0.00), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Average (+0.00)
3. Miguel Vargas	3B	4.45	+1.043	walk_rate Very good (+2.02), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.83), barrel_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+1.69)
4. Munetaka Murakami	1B	4.35	+0.714	whiff_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-3.27), barrel_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+3.16), barrel_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+3.14)
5. Andrew Benintendi	DH	4.25	+0.040	whiff_rate_vs_lhp Poor (-1.40), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Good (+1.01), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Good (+1.01)
6. Tristan Peters	CF	4.15	-0.382	exit_velocity_vs_fastball Poor (-1.90), bat_speed Poor (-1.38), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-1.17)
7. Braden Montgomery	RF	4.05	-0.458	ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.61), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Poor (-1.34), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Below average (-1.28)
8. Chase Meidroth	2B	3.98	-0.270	bat_speed Poor (-2.07), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Good (+1.29), whiff_rate_vs_breaking Good (+1.14)
9. Colson Montgomery	SS	3.90	+0.046	strikeout_rate Poor (-2.35), contact_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-2.24), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.12)
HOU lineup vs Hagen Smith
1. Jeremy Peña	SS	4.65	-0.268	whiff_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-1.87), walk_rate Poor (-1.40), whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Poor (-1.40)
2. Yordan Alvarez	DH	4.55	+1.769	contact_xwoba Very good (+2.97), barrel_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+2.97), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Very good (+2.94)
3. Isaac Paredes	3B	4.45	+0.027	ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+2.57), bat_speed Poor (-1.65), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.57)
4. Jose Altuve	2B	4.35	-0.550	hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-1.93), bat_speed Poor (-1.49), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Poor (-1.46)
5. Yainer Diaz	C	4.25	+0.006	contact_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.86), walk_rate Poor (-1.84), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Poor (-1.67)
6. Christian Walker	1B	4.15	-0.025	home_run_rate Good (+1.23), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Good (+1.22), whiff_rate_vs_breaking Below average (-1.11)
7. Lucas Spence	CF	4.05	+0.000	barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Average (+0.00), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Average (+0.00), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Average (+0.00)
8. Cam Smith	RF	3.98	+0.070	bat_speed Very good (+2.24), whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Poor (-1.95), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+1.79)
9. Taylor Trammell	LF	3.90	-0.260	whiff_rate_vs_rhp Poor (-2.22), whiff_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-2.16), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.00)

PHI @ ATL · final 3-5

Club KPI edges

KPI	PHI	ATL	Edge (H-A)	A spread	H spread
batter_barrel_rate_vs_breaking	+0.007	+0.545	+0.538	0.767	1.1009
batter_barrel_rate_vs_fastball	-0.011	+0.265	+0.276	0.763	1.0102
batter_barrel_rate_vs_lhp	+0.056	+0.054	-0.002	0.7371	0.9369
batter_barrel_rate_vs_offspeed	+0.513	+0.518	+0.005	1.0638	0.9042
batter_barrel_rate_vs_rhp	+0.136	+0.608	+0.472	0.8575	1.0342
batter_bat_speed	+0.289	+0.492	+0.203	0.7228	0.9981
batter_contact_rate_vs_breaking	+0.003	-0.018	-0.021	1.2008	0.6179
batter_contact_xwoba	+0.348	+0.376	+0.028	0.9183	1.1043
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_breaking	+0.112	+0.354	+0.243	0.8165	0.8764
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_fastball	+0.379	+0.268	-0.110	0.9963	0.9254
batter_exit_velocity_vs_fastball	+0.473	+0.415	-0.059	0.663	0.7416
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball	+0.046	+0.344	+0.297	0.7727	0.9116
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_slider	+0.058	+0.148	+0.090	0.7462	0.678
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking	+0.056	+0.225	+0.169	0.5384	1.1807
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball	+0.426	+0.440	+0.014	0.5156	0.9908
batter_home_run_rate	+0.277	+0.483	+0.206	1.1079	0.8824
batter_strikeout_rate	-0.072	+0.159	+0.230	0.9416	0.9042
batter_walk_rate	+0.136	-0.284	-0.421	1.3277	0.8272
batter_whiff_rate_vs_breaking	-0.079	+0.342	+0.422	1.0148	0.6499
batter_whiff_rate_vs_fastball	-0.183	-0.169	+0.014	0.6976	0.7293
batter_whiff_rate_vs_lhp	-0.051	+0.296	+0.347	0.9658	0.8577
batter_whiff_rate_vs_offspeed	-0.083	+0.626	+0.710	0.7753	0.8404
batter_whiff_rate_vs_rhp	-0.124	+0.085	+0.209	0.8025	0.5839
pitcher_barrel_rate_allowed	+1.313	+0.866	-0.447	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_lhh	+1.649	+0.526	-1.123	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_rhh	+0.555	+0.689	+0.134	-	-
pitcher_contact_xwoba_allowed	+1.098	+0.318	-0.780	-	-
pitcher_ground_ball_rate_induced	+1.253	+0.351	-0.902	-	-
pitcher_hard_hit_rate_allowed	+1.655	+0.918	-0.737	-	-
pitcher_home_run_rate_allowed	+1.211	+1.711	+0.500	-	-
pitcher_release_speed	+0.347	-0.464	-0.811	-	-
pitcher_strikeout_rate	+1.734	+1.736	+0.002	-	-
pitcher_walk_rate	+0.919	+1.930	+1.011	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate	+1.662	+1.143	-0.519	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_breaking	+2.262	+0.997	-1.265	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_fastball	-0.735	+0.988	+1.722	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_lhh	+2.159	+0.850	-1.310	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_rhh	+1.175	+1.000	-0.175	-	-

Lineups and their strongest readings

Batter	Pos	Proj PA	Composite z	Three strongest KPI readings
PHI lineup vs Chris Sale
1. Trea Turner	SS	4.65	-0.315	contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Poor (-1.20), barrel_rate_vs_breaking Below average (-0.98), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Below average (-0.97)
2. Kyle Schwarber	DH	4.55	+0.892	barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+3.35), home_run_rate Very good (+2.72), contact_xwoba Very good (+2.38)
3. Bryce Harper	RF	4.45	+0.411	walk_rate Very good (+2.35), contact_xwoba_vs_fastball Very good (+2.01), contact_xwoba Very good (+1.41)
4. Alec Bohm	1B	4.35	+0.306	contact_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+2.25), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+1.77), whiff_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.47)
5. Derek Hill	CF	4.25	-0.235	strikeout_rate Poor (-1.54), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Poor (-1.39), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-1.35)
6. Bryan De La Cruz	LF	4.15	+0.000	barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Average (+0.00), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Average (+0.00), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Average (+0.00)
7. Bryson Stott	2B	4.05	+0.171	whiff_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.88), whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+1.54), contact_rate_vs_breaking Good (+1.31)
8. Edmundo Sosa	3B	3.98	-0.141	walk_rate Poor (-1.84), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Below average (-0.95), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Good (+0.83)
9. J.T. Realmuto	C	3.90	-0.094	barrel_rate_vs_lhp Below average (-1.14), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Below average (-0.85), barrel_rate_vs_fastball Below average (-0.82)
ATL lineup vs Jesús Luzardo
1. Drake Baldwin	C	4.65	+0.703	barrel_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+2.13), barrel_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+1.90), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.65)
2. Ronald Acuña Jr.	RF	4.55	+0.530	barrel_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.67), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.58), contact_xwoba Very good (+1.41)
3. Matt Olson	1B	4.45	+0.964	home_run_rate Very good (+2.44), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+2.10), barrel_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+1.86)
4. Mauricio Dubón	LF	4.35	-0.095	whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+2.29), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+1.92), strikeout_rate Very good (+1.72)
5. Michael Harris II	CF	4.25	+0.428	barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+1.98), walk_rate Poor (-1.90), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Very good (+1.44)
6. Ozzie Albies	2B	4.15	-0.363	ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+2.18), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-2.04), contact_xwoba Poor (-1.73)
7. Austin Riley	3B	4.05	+0.135	strikeout_rate Poor (-1.66), bat_speed Very good (+1.58), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-1.36)
8. Mike Yastrzemski	DH	3.98	+0.126	whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Good (+1.10), whiff_rate_vs_breaking Good (+0.86), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Good (+0.72)
9. Ha-Seong Kim	SS	3.90	+0.009	barrel_rate_vs_lhp Below average (-0.78), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Good (+0.76), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Average (+0.22)

Edge is home club minus away club on that KPI, in standard deviations, after plate-appearance weighting. Spread is the dispersion inside a club, which a mean alone discards and which is roughly three times larger than the between-game variation of the mean itself.
generated 2026-10-06T13:57:47.041734+00:00 · kpi_slate_report_v3