Nightly self-improvement · slate 2026-09-10
Generated 2026-09-11T05:00:00.006640-04:00 ET from official finals (mlb-api). Every learning stage is listed with what it did. "Blocked" means it wanted to act and a safety rule stopped it; "nothing to learn" means it had no eligible evidence.
Slate
2026-09-10
status completed
Winners
3/5
Brier 0.2399
Learned or changed
0
of 5 stages
Blocked
0
wanted to act and could not
Release
v4.31.0
DRIFT
What each learning stage did
| Stage | Outcome | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| KPI settlement | failed | did not run |
| Bullpen usage model | nothing to learn | No pregame bullpen forecasts to settle. Refit: not attempted. |
| Adaptive parameter proposal (Luna) | nothing to learn | skipped_open_rollback_monitor: |
| Auto-apply | nothing to learn | no_promotable_candidate |
| Code agent | nothing to learn | disabled_by_config: code changes are made on the development host, never in the container. |
Games
| Game | Predicted | Actual | Home win prob | Result | Main driver | Starters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL@NYY | 4-8 | 3-10 | 0.580 | hit | Ryan Feltner: 14 proj / 15 real outs; Max Fried: 18 proj / 10 real outs | |
| HOU@PHI | 4-5 | 2-1 | 0.567 | miss | Starting-pitcher projection was wrong | Cristian Javier: 12 proj / 18 real outs; Zack Wheeler: 17 proj / 21 real outs |
| PIT@CHW | 4-3 | 2-0 | 0.472 | hit | Jared Jones: 14 proj / 21 real outs; Hagen Smith: 14 proj / 6 real outs | |
| TB@ATL | 6-5 | 1-3 | 0.494 | miss | Run environment far lower than projected (over-dispersed) | Nick Martinez: 18 proj / 19 real outs; Martín Pérez: 17 proj / 21 real outs |
| TEX@SEA | 4-5 | 3-4 | 0.527 | hit | Jacob deGrom: 15 proj / 18 real outs; Logan Gilbert: 17 proj / 21 real outs |
Day over day
Rolling evidence window against the prior night. Associations, not causal proof.
| Metric | Prior | Current | Change | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| brier_score | 0.2444 | 0.2445 | 0.0001 | regressed |
| accuracy | 0.5833 | 0.5750 | -0.0083 | regressed |
| team_run_mae | 2.5500 | 2.5708 | 0.0208 | regressed |
| total_run_mae | 4.0000 | 4.0750 | 0.0750 | regressed |
| calibration_error | 0.0690 | 0.0513 | -0.0177 | improved |
| starter_er_mae | 1.9879 | 1.9728 | -0.0151 | improved |
| starter_outs_mae | 3.1498 | 3.2062 | 0.0564 | regressed |
Calibration produced for the next slate
| Metric | Scale used | Measured | Rows | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No calibration produced. | ||||
Luna KPI candidates and their promotion gate
Promotion needs 400+ prospective rows over 5+ slates after the proposal, with a gain interval above zero. Only verified pregame forecasts count; local replays never do.
| KPI | Status | Target | Proposed | Rows | Slates | Gain interval | Progress |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| luna_pitcher_release_speed_vs_righthanded_starters | shadow | SO | 20260923 | 330/400 | 5/5 | [-0.0007, 0.0007] | |
| luna_pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_rhh_righthanded_starters | shadow | HR | 20260923 | 330/400 | 5/5 | [-0.0004, 0.0049] | |
| luna_batter_contact_rate_vs_breaking_righthanded_starters | shadow | H | 20260923 | 330/400 | 5/5 | [-0.0045, 0.0044] | |
| luna_batter_contact_rate_vs_breaking_left_handed_starters_for_strikeouts | shadow | SO | 20260924 | 122/400 | 4/5 | [-0.0027, 0.0021] | |
| luna_pitcher_contact_xwoba_allowed_vs_righthanded_starters_for_strikeouts | shadow | SO | 20260924 | 122/400 | 4/5 | [-0.0001, 0.0000] | |
| luna_pitcher_whiff_rate_breaking_vs_left_handed_hitters_for_hits | shadow | H | 20260924 | 122/400 | 4/5 | [-0.0056, -0.0011] | |
| luna_pitcher_home_run_rate_vs_righthanded_starters | shadow | HR | 20260925 | 122/400 | 4/5 | [-0.0010, 0.0056] | |
| luna_batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball_vs_lhp_for_home_runs | shadow | HR | 20260926 | 86/400 | 3/5 | [-0.0001, -0.0000] | |
| luna_pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_right_handed_starters_for_batter_strikeouts | shadow | SO | 20260929 | 51/400 | 2/5 | [–, –] | |
| luna_batter_whiff_rate_vs_breaking_right_handed_starters_for_hits | shadow | H | 20260929 | 51/400 | 2/5 | [–, –] | |
| luna_batter_walk_rate_vs_righthanded_pitchers_for_home_runs | retired | HR | 20260924 | 0/400 | 0/5 | [–, –] |
Operator actions the cycle asked for (0)
Changes to code or a model recipe are never made by the nightly cycle. These are the measured findings that need one.
| Priority | Owner | Finding | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| No operator actions requested. | |||
Luna post-mortem
Luna (gpt-5.6-luna) post-mortem, status received. Full analysis.
# 1. Evidence receipt and gaps ## Sources received All seven `source_manifest` entries were checked against their declared status: | Source | Status | Purpose | Receipt finding | |---|---:|---|---| | `prediction_review_20260910.json` | Loaded | Official outcomes and scoring errors | Present; 129,033 bytes | | `PREDICTION_SYSTEM_DEEP_AUDIT_20260910.json` | Loaded | Probability, provenance, starter, and decision contracts | Present; 90,736 bytes | | `continuous_learning_daily_20260910.json` | Loaded | Stage quality, calibration, lineage, score distribution, starters | Present; 866,957 bytes | | `detailed_20260910.html` | Loaded | Full game and simulation rendering | Present; 122,840 bytes | | `20260910_ultra_detailed_player_audit.html` | Loaded | Player-level prediction trace | Present; 11,020,085 bytes | | `audit_report_20260910.html` | Loaded | Invariant findings | Present; 626,992 bytes | | `audit_report_20260910_integrity_revision.html` | **Missing** | Post-remediation immutable revision proof | Missing; byte count `null` | All five expected games were reviewed: 1. `COL@NYY` 2. `HOU@PHI` 3. `PIT@CHW` 4. `TB@ATL` 5. `TEX@SEA` Coverage is complete for the five-game slate: canonical artifacts loaded `5/5`, continuous-learning games `5/5`, forensic deep-audit games `5/5`, starter comparisons `5/5`, and structural audits `5/5` (`coverage_matrix`). ## Gaps and contradictions 1. **Missing integrity revision audit.** The source manifest explicitly reports `audit_report_2026