| Matchup | Target Score | Sim Score | Target Winner | Sim Winner | Winner | Confidence | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL @ NYY | 4 - 8 | 4 - 8 | NYY | NYY | NYY wins 8-4 | 58% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| HOU @ PHI | 4 - 5 | 4 - 5 | PHI | PHI | PHI wins 5-4 | 57% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| PIT @ CHW | 4 - 3 | 4 - 3 | PIT | PIT | PIT wins 4-3 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| TB @ ATL | 6 - 5 | 6 - 5 | TB | TB | TB wins 6-5 | 51% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| TEX @ SEA | 4 - 5 | 4 - 5 | SEA | SEA | SEA wins 5-4 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| NYY | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | x | 8 | 10 |
Quality edge: 1.7195; margin adjustment: 2.7512; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jake McCarthy | LF | 124 | 479 | 140 | 0.292 | 15 | 74 | 0.334 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.274 | 0.312 | 0.441 | OK |
| Connor Norby | 2B | 26 | 82 | 23 | 0.280 | 3 | 12 | 0.372 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.254 | 0.335 | 0.436 | OK |
| Hunter Goodman | C | 125 | 466 | 115 | 0.247 | 37 | 78 | 0.313 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.188 | 0.243 | 0.389 | OK |
| TJ Rumfield | 1B | 138 | 492 | 147 | 0.299 | 15 | 66 | 0.390 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.296 | 0.380 | 0.477 | OK |
| Cole Carrigg | CF | 73 | 264 | 69 | 0.261 | 7 | 39 | 0.337 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.248 | 0.312 | 0.432 | OK |
| Kyle Karros | 3B | 112 | 349 | 92 | 0.264 | 10 | 44 | 0.360 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.228 | 0.307 | 0.402 | OK |
| Adael Amador | DH | 11 | 32 | 11 | 0.344 | 3 | 10 | 0.417 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.315 | 0.384 | 0.614 | OK |
| Jordan Beck | RF | 49 | 137 | 27 | 0.197 | 1 | 11 | 0.250 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.196 | 0.244 | 0.287 | OK |
| Ezequiel Tovar | SS | 128 | 419 | 89 | 0.212 | 10 | 41 | 0.259 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.194 | 0.235 | 0.286 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 41 | 35 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Ben Rice | DH | 136 | 510 | 131 | 0.257 | 35 | 84 | 0.355 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.271 | 0.356 | 0.470 | OK |
| Cody Bellinger | LF | 116 | 433 | 115 | 0.266 | 13 | 63 | 0.344 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.284 | 0.345 | 0.440 | OK |
| Jasson Domínguez | RF | 52 | 197 | 46 | 0.234 | 6 | 14 | 0.271 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.162 | 0.195 | 0.268 | OK |
| Luis García Jr. | 1B | 31 | 112 | 34 | 0.304 | 6 | 13 | 0.342 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.333 | 0.360 | 0.595 | OK |
| Spencer Jones | CF | 69 | 204 | 50 | 0.245 | 9 | 31 | 0.323 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.280 | 0.363 | 0.491 | OK |
| George Lombard Jr. | SS | 28 | 96 | 23 | 0.240 | 3 | 11 | 0.299 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.216 | 0.274 | 0.391 | OK |
| Ryan McMahon | 3B | 101 | 289 | 62 | 0.215 | 10 | 33 | 0.278 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.211 | 0.271 | 0.335 | OK |
| Austin Wells | C | 108 | 303 | 55 | 0.182 | 10 | 28 | 0.275 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.156 | 0.260 | 0.277 | OK |
| Anthony Volpe | 2B | 53 | 168 | 40 | 0.238 | 1 | 17 | 0.326 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.236 | 0.315 | 0.324 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 34 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 9 | 0.294 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Ryan Feltner | Starter | 22 | 104.1 | 6.05 | 1.604 | 7.0 | 81 | 4.2 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 92 | 4.2 | 5 | 4 |
| Jordan Romano | Closer | 21 | 18.5 | 2.92 | 1.189 | 9.2 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 |
| Brennan Bernardino | Setup Man | 67 | 46.6 | 3.09 | 1.373 | 7.9 | 41 | 1.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 26 | 1.1 | 2 | 2 |
| Jimmy Herget | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 45 | 38.6 | 6.99 | 1.788 | 9.3 | 40 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Max Fried | Starter | 17 | 93.1 | 2.80 | 1.020 | 8.4 | 87 | 6.0 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 113 | 6.0 | 7 | 2 |
| David Bednar | Closer | 58 | 57.7 | 2.81 | 1.092 | 10.9 | 70 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Brent Headrick | Setup Man | 73 | 58.8 | 2.30 | 1.412 | 13.9 | 91 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 29 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Paul Blackburn | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 56 | 70.7 | 1.91 | 1.160 | 8.4 | 66 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 |
NYY wins 8-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| PHI | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 5 | 7 |
Quality edge: 0.4289; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jeremy Peña | SS | 95 | 383 | 104 | 0.272 | 17 | 47 | 0.325 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.235 | 0.268 | 0.377 | OK |
| Yordan Alvarez | DH | 143 | 515 | 162 | 0.315 | 38 | 96 | 0.431 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.274 | 0.368 | 0.492 | OK |
| Isaac Paredes | 3B | 138 | 500 | 128 | 0.256 | 19 | 82 | 0.358 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.259 | 0.334 | 0.452 | OK |
| Jose Altuve | 2B | 118 | 459 | 112 | 0.244 | 15 | 44 | 0.304 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.225 | 0.273 | 0.350 | OK |
| Daulton Varsho | CF | 31 | 119 | 23 | 0.193 | 4 | 13 | 0.256 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.226 | 0.277 | 0.365 | OK |
| Christian Walker | 1B | 139 | 513 | 118 | 0.230 | 25 | 80 | 0.305 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.222 | 0.284 | 0.395 | OK |
| Cam Smith | RF | 133 | 458 | 99 | 0.216 | 19 | 52 | 0.281 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.236 | 0.290 | 0.511 | OK |
| Taylor Trammell | LF | 80 | 223 | 46 | 0.206 | 7 | 20 | 0.283 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.183 | 0.250 | 0.326 | OK |
| Christian Vázquez | C | 79 | 231 | 49 | 0.212 | 7 | 25 | 0.265 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.194 | 0.250 | 0.309 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 35 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Kyle Schwarber | DH | 138 | 523 | 126 | 0.241 | 43 | 91 | 0.352 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.254 | 0.346 | 0.606 | OK |
| Trea Turner | SS | 138 | 577 | 141 | 0.244 | 19 | 56 | 0.294 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.254 | 0.295 | 0.449 | OK |
| Bryce Harper | RF | 144 | 509 | 138 | 0.271 | 27 | 82 | 0.389 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.276 | 0.389 | 0.469 | OK |
| Luis Arraez | 2B | 32 | 128 | 38 | 0.297 | 2 | 14 | 0.319 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.313 | 0.346 | 0.413 | OK |
| Alec Bohm | 1B | 136 | 509 | 125 | 0.246 | 15 | 79 | 0.308 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.248 | 0.307 | 0.414 | OK |
| Bryson Stott | 3B | 138 | 479 | 120 | 0.251 | 10 | 60 | 0.327 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.231 | 0.303 | 0.358 | OK |
| Brandon Marsh | LF | 137 | 484 | 130 | 0.269 | 17 | 58 | 0.314 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.236 | 0.279 | 0.352 | OK |
| Justin Crawford | CF | 129 | 380 | 98 | 0.258 | 2 | 34 | 0.307 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.239 | 0.284 | 0.325 | OK |
| Rafael Marchán | C | 29 | 88 | 9 | 0.102 | 2 | 6 | 0.141 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.135 | 0.161 | 0.205 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 31 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 0.226 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Cristian Javier | Starter | 14 | 48.5 | 6.12 | 1.588 | 9.3 | 50 | 4.0 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 89 | 4.0 | 6 | 5 |
| Josh Hader | Closer | 40 | 39.4 | 0.69 | 0.609 | 12.1 | 53 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Abreu | Setup Man | 58 | 51.4 | 4.03 | 1.479 | 12.6 | 72 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| AJ Blubaugh | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 57 | 83.4 | 3.56 | 1.283 | 9.7 | 90 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Enyel De Los Santos | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 63 | 58.0 | 4.97 | 1.362 | 9.6 | 62 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0.2 | 2 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Zack Wheeler | Starter | 24 | 134.7 | 3.27 | 1.091 | 10.9 | 163 | 5.2 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 108 | 5.2 | 6 | 3 |
| Jhoan Duran | Closer | 54 | 52.4 | 1.37 | 0.992 | 12.7 | 74 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Bowlan | Setup Man | 56 | 49.8 | 3.43 | 1.084 | 12.3 | 68 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Orion Kerkering | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 59 | 47.9 | 4.70 | 1.482 | 10.7 | 57 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Brooks Raley | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 12 | 7.7 | 4.68 | 1.429 | 10.5 | 9 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 |
PHI wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| CHW | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
Quality edge: -0.2308; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Konnor Griffin | DH | 63 | 244 | 65 | 0.266 | 5 | 27 | 0.325 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.261 | 0.315 | 0.373 | OK |
| Oneil Cruz | CF | 82 | 319 | 86 | 0.270 | 17 | 60 | 0.358 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.274 | 0.340 | 0.406 | OK |
| Bryan Reynolds | LF | 143 | 529 | 142 | 0.268 | 16 | 69 | 0.374 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.291 | 0.370 | 0.474 | OK |
| Nick Gonzales | 3B | 131 | 497 | 150 | 0.302 | 4 | 57 | 0.364 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.265 | 0.313 | 0.336 | OK |
| Brandon Lowe | 2B | 133 | 520 | 134 | 0.258 | 29 | 83 | 0.327 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.300 | 0.364 | 0.471 | OK |
| Rafael Flores Jr. | C | 31 | 103 | 25 | 0.243 | 8 | 19 | 0.310 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.250 | 0.304 | 0.463 | OK |
| Jake Mangum | RF | 109 | 383 | 111 | 0.290 | 4 | 30 | 0.343 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.294 | 0.331 | 0.385 | OK |
| Spencer Horwitz | 1B | 103 | 355 | 87 | 0.245 | 10 | 44 | 0.345 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.221 | 0.312 | 0.305 | OK |
| Jared Triolo | SS | 97 | 294 | 73 | 0.248 | 3 | 28 | 0.321 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.188 | 0.254 | 0.248 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 34 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Sam Antonacci | LF | 124 | 431 | 115 | 0.267 | 8 | 44 | 0.365 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.267 | 0.334 | 0.393 | OK |
| Miguel Vargas | 3B | 142 | 530 | 132 | 0.249 | 30 | 79 | 0.358 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.208 | 0.307 | 0.376 | OK |
| Munetaka Murakami | 1B | 110 | 396 | 83 | 0.210 | 31 | 63 | 0.349 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.194 | 0.319 | 0.455 | OK |
| Andrew Benintendi | DH | 128 | 389 | 95 | 0.244 | 14 | 70 | 0.306 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.226 | 0.297 | 0.398 | OK |
| Colson Montgomery | SS | 137 | 518 | 108 | 0.208 | 31 | 83 | 0.288 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.179 | 0.242 | 0.411 | OK |
| Braden Montgomery | RF | 76 | 274 | 61 | 0.223 | 6 | 37 | 0.318 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.213 | 0.312 | 0.358 | OK |
| Chase Meidroth | 2B | 138 | 514 | 138 | 0.268 | 12 | 51 | 0.342 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.226 | 0.300 | 0.318 | OK |
| Tristan Peters | CF | 133 | 396 | 112 | 0.283 | 12 | 53 | 0.344 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.292 | 0.336 | 0.453 | OK |
| Jake Rogers | C | 5 | 17 | 2 | 0.118 | 1 | 2 | 0.211 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.178 | 0.275 | 0.331 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 31 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jared Jones | Starter | 17 | 77.5 | 4.53 | 1.252 | 10.7 | 92 | 4.2 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 84 | 4.2 | 4 | 3 |
| Mason Montgomery | Closer | 61 | 53.2 | 2.88 | 1.147 | 15.9 | 94 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Luke Weaver | Setup Man | 11 | 9.4 | 6.70 | 1.809 | 11.5 | 12 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Gregory Soto | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 61 | 56.2 | 2.88 | 1.103 | 11.4 | 71 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 1.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Yohan Ramírez | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 60 | 71.0 | 3.42 | 1.380 | 11.5 | 91 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Hagen Smith | Starter | 9 | 14.6 | 0.00 | 0.959 | 14.2 | 23 | 4.2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 86 | 4.2 | 4 | 1 |
| Grant Taylor | Closer | 41 | 51.9 | 2.60 | 1.118 | 13.2 | 76 | 1.1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 2 |
| Sean Newcomb | Setup Man | 46 | 60.2 | 2.84 | 1.246 | 9.6 | 64 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1.1 | 0 | 1 |
| Bryan Hudson | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 60 | 52.8 | 2.90 | 1.307 | 9.4 | 55 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Jordan Hicks | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 42 | 33.7 | 4.54 | 1.780 | 13.1 | 49 | 0.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
PIT wins 4-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TB | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 10 |
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 10 |
Quality edge: 0.0579; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Yandy Díaz | DH | 139 | 553 | 170 | 0.307 | 22 | 80 | 0.374 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.306 | 0.356 | 0.461 | OK |
| Ryan Vilade | 1B | 77 | 206 | 54 | 0.262 | 11 | 38 | 0.328 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.263 | 0.337 | 0.465 | OK |
| Junior Caminero | 3B | 144 | 551 | 155 | 0.281 | 39 | 93 | 0.368 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.274 | 0.348 | 0.506 | OK |
| Jonny DeLuca | RF | 88 | 295 | 77 | 0.261 | 9 | 43 | 0.294 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.219 | 0.252 | 0.339 | OK |
| Chandler Simpson | LF | 133 | 517 | 160 | 0.309 | 0 | 31 | 0.336 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.306 | 0.335 | 0.350 | OK |
| Nick Madrigal | 2B | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.264 | 0.360 | 0.304 | |
| Jorge Mateo | SS | 15 | 47 | 7 | 0.149 | 1 | 7 | 0.196 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.183 | 0.223 | 0.267 | OK |
| Nick Fortes | C | 90 | 270 | 72 | 0.267 | 4 | 31 | 0.307 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.254 | 0.279 | 0.351 | OK |
| Cedric Mullins | CF | 121 | 408 | 84 | 0.206 | 14 | 45 | 0.289 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.199 | 0.277 | 0.297 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 37 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 0.270 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Drake Baldwin | C | 122 | 477 | 132 | 0.277 | 23 | 71 | 0.354 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.261 | 0.320 | 0.434 | OK |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | RF | 92 | 349 | 89 | 0.255 | 16 | 45 | 0.349 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.271 | 0.344 | 0.493 | OK |
| Matt Olson | 1B | 145 | 558 | 138 | 0.247 | 36 | 79 | 0.322 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.190 | 0.266 | 0.362 | OK |
| Michael Harris II | CF | 139 | 527 | 153 | 0.290 | 24 | 80 | 0.316 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.222 | 0.247 | 0.369 | OK |
| Mauricio Dubón | 2B | 137 | 509 | 136 | 0.267 | 11 | 66 | 0.311 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.254 | 0.292 | 0.369 | OK |
| Lane Thomas | LF | 18 | 41 | 7 | 0.171 | 1 | 3 | 0.244 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.750 | 0.170 | 0.264 | 0.290 | OK |
| Austin Riley | 3B | 143 | 506 | 113 | 0.223 | 16 | 66 | 0.295 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.214 | 0.265 | 0.382 | OK |
| Brewer Hicklen | DH | 7 | 22 | 8 | 0.364 | 0 | 3 | 0.462 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.340 | 0.434 | 0.513 | OK |
| Ha-Seong Kim | SS | 34 | 100 | 11 | 0.110 | 0 | 6 | 0.198 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.150 | 0.222 | 0.197 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 37 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 0.270 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Nick Martinez | Starter | 27 | 156.5 | 3.11 | 1.125 | 5.5 | 95 | 6.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 99 | 6.0 | 5 | 2 |
| Bryan Baker | Closer | 57 | 54.6 | 1.48 | 0.879 | 9.9 | 60 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 |
| Kevin Kelly | Setup Man | 64 | 57.4 | 2.51 | 0.993 | 8.5 | 54 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 16 | 1.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Tyler Wells | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 12 | 15.3 | 1.76 | 0.719 | 9.4 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Martín Pérez | Starter | 27 | 122.1 | 3.32 | 1.294 | 6.9 | 94 | 5.2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 95 | 5.2 | 4 | 2 |
| Raisel Iglesias | Closer | 52 | 50.9 | 2.83 | 1.198 | 9.7 | 55 | 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 22 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Dylan Lee | Setup Man | 65 | 54.3 | 2.65 | 0.939 | 12.4 | 75 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Didier Fuentes | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 51 | 59.3 | 2.58 | 1.164 | 12.6 | 83 | 1.1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 1.1 | 1 | 2 |
TB wins 6-5
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
| SEA | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | x | 5 | 5 |
Quality edge: -0.3715; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Joc Pederson | DH | 130 | 364 | 85 | 0.234 | 25 | 50 | 0.324 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.150 | 0.239 | 0.334 | OK |
| Corey Seager | SS | 85 | 317 | 73 | 0.230 | 17 | 40 | 0.325 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.260 | 0.337 | 0.552 | OK |
| Ezequiel Duran | 3B | 135 | 481 | 131 | 0.272 | 17 | 78 | 0.333 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.266 | 0.325 | 0.446 | OK |
| Brandon Nimmo | RF | 140 | 536 | 141 | 0.263 | 14 | 58 | 0.327 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.248 | 0.295 | 0.374 | OK |
| Wyatt Langford | LF | 94 | 359 | 87 | 0.242 | 16 | 38 | 0.328 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.182 | 0.272 | 0.347 | OK |
| Evan Carter | CF | 124 | 357 | 70 | 0.196 | 9 | 35 | 0.287 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.162 | 0.241 | 0.291 | OK |
| Jake Burger | 1B | 138 | 500 | 119 | 0.238 | 26 | 83 | 0.306 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.229 | 0.319 | 0.500 | OK |
| Nicky Lopez | 2B | 76 | 205 | 57 | 0.278 | 1 | 22 | 0.323 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.194 | 0.230 | 0.242 | OK |
| Danny Jansen | C | 51 | 157 | 28 | 0.178 | 6 | 20 | 0.267 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.210 | 0.268 | 0.421 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 33 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| J.P. Crawford | SS | 100 | 349 | 77 | 0.221 | 10 | 33 | 0.344 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.224 | 0.347 | 0.317 | OK |
| Randy Arozarena | LF | 138 | 512 | 140 | 0.273 | 22 | 67 | 0.371 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.266 | 0.338 | 0.426 | OK |
| Dominic Canzone | DH | 128 | 414 | 105 | 0.254 | 21 | 65 | 0.322 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.225 | 0.272 | 0.391 | OK |
| Cal Raleigh | C | 110 | 394 | 72 | 0.183 | 21 | 59 | 0.295 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.255 | 0.348 | 0.472 | OK |
| Julio Rodríguez | CF | 134 | 536 | 128 | 0.239 | 20 | 61 | 0.297 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.195 | 0.238 | 0.293 | OK |
| Josh Naylor | 1B | 136 | 532 | 142 | 0.267 | 10 | 49 | 0.324 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.252 | 0.296 | 0.325 | OK |
| Cole Young | 2B | 144 | 526 | 130 | 0.247 | 16 | 60 | 0.311 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.247 | 0.296 | 0.358 | OK |
| Lazaro Montes | RF | 7 | 19 | 5 | 0.263 | 2 | 6 | 0.300 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.168 | 0.208 | 0.355 | OK |
| Brock Rodden | 3B | 17 | 51 | 12 | 0.235 | 0 | 4 | 0.333 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.241 | 0.340 | 0.342 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 32 | 29 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 0.172 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jacob deGrom | Starter | 27 | 141.0 | 4.02 | 1.135 | 11.1 | 174 | 5.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 82 | 5.0 | 6 | 1 |
| Jacob Latz | Closer | 50 | 59.6 | 1.51 | 0.755 | 10.6 | 70 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jakob Junis | Setup Man | 46 | 45.6 | 2.96 | 1.228 | 6.9 | 35 | 1.0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 1.0 | 0 | 4 |
| Chase Silseth | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 17 | 12.1 | 3.72 | 1.736 | 11.2 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Logan Gilbert | Starter | 28 | 160.8 | 3.81 | 1.095 | 9.9 | 176 | 5.2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 107 | 5.2 | 6 | 3 |
| Andrés Muñoz | Closer | 55 | 50.3 | 3.94 | 1.173 | 15.2 | 85 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| José A. Ferrer | Setup Man | 65 | 51.5 | 4.37 | 1.612 | 8.4 | 48 | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 |
| Eduard Bazardo | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 67 | 52.3 | 4.65 | 1.740 | 11.0 | 64 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
SEA wins 5-4