Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260910 · dates 20260910 · generated 2026-09-11T09:00:12.913708+00:00

3-2

Winner picks · 60.0%

Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches

5/10

Starter ER within ±1

3/10

Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

Date	Games	Settled	Pending	Hits	Misses	Calibration traces	Review status	Pipeline versions
20260910	5	5	0	3	2	5	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

Priority	Change	Status	Observed games	Evidence
P1	Empirical Confidence Blend	Implemented And Applied	5	applied games: 5formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)raw+w_empempirical_hit_rate
P1	H2H Base Feature	Implemented And Monitored	5	available games: 5
P2	Score Distribution Widening	Implemented Above 1.4X	5	variance multipliers: [1.75]
P2	Simulation Flip Control	Diagnostic Only Without Independent Support	5	simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3	Recent Form Quality Blend	Implemented Last 10	5	configured window: 10last 10 games: 5observed windows: [10]
P3	Continuous Calibration Audit	Implemented	5	settled games: 5metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.1171.

Bucket	Games	Average confidence	Observed hit rate	Calibration error	Direction
0.50-0.55	3	52.0%	66.7%	-14.6%	underconfident
0.55-0.60	2	57.3%	50.0%	7.3%	overconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

Stage	Games	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE	Winner accuracy	Δ team MAE vs base	Δ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml	5	2.4915	4.6756	2.6222	60.0%	0.0	0.0
variance_applied	5	2.5	4.6	2.6	40.0%	0.0085	-0.0222
enhanced_prediction	5	2.2	3.6	2.0	60.0%	-0.2915	-0.6222
embedded_savant_run_environment	5	2.2	4.0	1.6	60.0%	-0.2915	-1.0222
fundamental_edge_target_review	5	2.3	4.2	1.8	60.0%	-0.1915	-0.8222
capped_target	5	2.3	4.2	1.8	60.0%	-0.1915	-0.8222
simulation_result	5	2.3	4.2	1.8	60.0%	-0.1915	-0.8222
published_final	5	2.3	4.2	1.8	60.0%	-0.1915	-0.8222

Largest measured regression

{
  "stage": "variance_applied",
  "games": 5,
  "team_run_mae": 2.5,
  "total_run_mae": 4.6,
  "margin_mae": 2.6,
  "winner_hits": 2,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.4,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.0085,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": -0.0222
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded score stage reinforced losing picks?

partial_attribution sample=2

Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	2.0	-1.0	1.0	3.0	2	1	1	0	reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review	1.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	2	1	0	1	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	0.0274	-0.5403	-0.5129	0.5677	2	1	1	0	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	0.0	-1.0	-1.0	1.0	2	0	1	1	moved away from final pick
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2	0	0	2	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2	0	0	2	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 2,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 2.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 3.0,
      "games_recorded": 2,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.0,
      "games_recorded": 2,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0274,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -0.5403,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": -0.5129,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.5677,
      "games_recorded": 2,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": -1.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.0,
      "games_recorded": 2,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "moved away from final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 2,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 2,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 2,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 2,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded score stage reinforced winning picks?

partial_attribution sample=3

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	4.0	0.0	4.0	4.0	3	3	0	0	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	1.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	3	1	0	2	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	0.6318	-1.0339	-0.4021	1.6657	3	1	2	0	reinforced final pick
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3	0	0	3	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3	0	0	3	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	3	0	0	3	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 3,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 4.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 4.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 4.0,
      "games_recorded": 3,
      "games_supporting_pick": 3,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.0,
      "games_recorded": 3,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 2,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.6318,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -1.0339,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": -0.4021,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.6657,
      "games_recorded": 3,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 2,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 3,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 3,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 3,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 3,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 3,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 3,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=5

Range	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
[0.000, 0.525)	1	0	1	0.0
[0.525, 0.550)	2	2	0	1.0
[0.550, 0.600)	2	1	1	0.5
[0.600, 1.010)	0	0	0

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 5,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
    "sample_size": 1,
    "hits": 0,
    "misses": 1,
    "accuracy": 0.0
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 2,
      "hits": 2,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 2,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.5
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": null
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=5

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

Date	Sample Size	Mean Confidence	Mean Predicted Total	Accuracy
20260910	5	0.5416	9.6	0.6

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 5,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260910",
      "sample_size": 5,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5416,
      "mean_predicted_total": 9.6,
      "accuracy": 0.6
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=5

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline Version	Model Schema Version	Policy Version	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	historical_game_temporal_v11	model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3	5	3	2	0.6

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 5,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 5,
      "hits": 3,
      "misses": 2,
      "accuracy": 0.6
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260910_COL@NYY

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickNYY

Published scoreCOL 4 - 8 NYY

Final confidence58.0%

Calibrationraw 85.6% → blended 70.2%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.8% · weight 50.0% · n=199

H2H base featurehome net 7.0 · absolute 7.0 · n=2

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 1.7195

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.7685722210916186-6.356942548111263	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-8	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-8	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-8	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-8	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-8	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 8,
    "confidence": 0.16,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.58,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.58,
    "away_win_probability": 0.42
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.16,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "NYY wins 8-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 8
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 8,
    "predicted_score_text": "COL 4 - 8 NYY",
    "confidence": 0.58,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.856144,
    "sample_size": 199,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5477,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.701922,
    "published_confidence": 0.58,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": 7.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 7.0,
    "home_average_margin": 3.5,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0525,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0525,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 2.1586,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.904,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 1.7195
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 8,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.014733644768376334
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.014631443001248273
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 8,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.014485209416361566
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 7,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.014384730952081657
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 9,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.013760911365369284
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.01268682180978032,
      "1": 0.021636056130109552,
      "2": 0.03422294085629955,
      "3": 0.050207722546619656,
      "4": 0.06831839974522524,
      "5": 0.08622214367969465,
      "6": 0.10092852240891537,
      "7": 0.10957790228245243,
      "8": 0.11034331245084779,
      "9": 0.10305831084352236,
      "10": 0.08927584936849998,
      "11": 0.07172968596382598,
      "12": 0.05345370790407465,
      "13": 0.036946279446701764,
      "14": 0.023685227103614447,
      "15": 0.014083103264087066,
      "16": 0.007766639409907446,
      "17": 0.003972664490963175,
      "18": 0.0018847102948586333
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.02920966967589919,
      "1": 0.04903009867246978,
      "2": 0.07394938750275298,
      "3": 0.10021715913982318,
      "4": 0.12203524753332382,
      "5": 0.13352548914044435,
      "6": 0.13127401284798274,
      "7": 0.11596556203297297,
      "8": 0.0920481375276564,
      "9": 0.06565029264408996,
      "10": 0.042072083480827985,
      "11": 0.024226298564049096,
      "12": 0.012534753653419106,
      "13": 0.0058274725108343845,
      "14": 0.002434335073454049
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "score_text": "COL 4 - 8 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "score_text": "COL 4 - 8 NYY",
      "winner": "NYY"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0924,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.254,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 8,
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      "model_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner": "NYY",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
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        "draw_count": 5,
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        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "NYY",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
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      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 4,
      "simulation_margin": 4,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 8
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    },
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      "score_reviewed": {
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        "home_runs": 8,
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    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
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          "recent_quality_edge": 0.904,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": 1.7195
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 2.7512,
        "reason": "season-to-date run differential and record moved the score toward the stronger team",
        "margin_adjustment_policy": {
          "adjustment": 2.7512,
          "cap": 4.0,
          "scale": 1.6,
          "quality_edge": 1.7195,
          "season_quality_edge": 2.1586,
          "recent_alignment": "aligned",
          "large_edge_supported_by_recent_form": true,
          "method": "supported_large_edge_up_to_four_runs"
        },
        "adjusted_score": {
          "away_runs": 0.666,
          "home_runs": 11.451,
          "home_win_probability": 0.92
        }
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
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            "away_runs": 5,
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          {
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
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          "13": 0.03550733503784209,
          "14": 0.022157578927881626,
          "15": 0.012766137807257211,
          "16": 0.0067909377231132875,
          "17": 0.003335285102062734,
          "18": 0.0015124087305252792
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        "away_distribution": {
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          "3": 0.10119442663194966,
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          "7": 0.11813679293790993,
          "8": 0.09246800908378722,
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          "12": 0.01115869905589403,
          "13": 0.004952429067628475
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        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.7685722210916186,
      "home_runs": 6.356942548111263,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 8,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260910_HOU@PHI

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickPHI

Published scoreHOU 4 - 5 PHI

Final confidence56.7%

Calibrationraw 61.0% → blended 58.5%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.9% · weight 50.0% · n=313

H2H base featurehome net 3.0 · absolute 3.0 · n=2

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.4289

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.010791078553811-5.983368668229911	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-6	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PHI",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.133718,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.566859,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.566859,
    "away_win_probability": 0.433141
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.133718,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "PHI wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "HOU 4 - 5 PHI",
    "confidence": 0.566858705,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.61,
    "sample_size": 313,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5591,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.58455,
    "published_confidence": 0.566859,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": 3.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 3.0,
    "home_average_margin": 1.5,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0225,
    "away_run_delta": -0.0225,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -1.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.6233,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.068,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.4289
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.022717820861471897
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.021760079436394932
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02151904012651874
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02109022879958114
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.020688643559826934
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.035220045439377394,
      "1": 0.05881151952710289,
      "2": 0.08732594930993925,
      "3": 0.11530088928035831,
      "4": 0.13537249231192708,
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      "6": 0.13120525797589114,
      "7": 0.10831142919882729,
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      "10": 0.030122706202293844,
      "11": 0.015547148207852881,
      "12": 0.007135360463757417,
      "13": 0.002911987612174272
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05331929262498383,
      "1": 0.08769269964529917,
      "2": 0.1244125159152629,
      "3": 0.15226015813177735,
      "4": 0.16074225320647176,
      "5": 0.14638460272534604,
      "6": 0.11499588939376591,
      "7": 0.07792751114578689,
      "8": 0.04555340729348853,
      "9": 0.02297060845040504,
      "10": 0.009991845329418703,
      "11": 0.003749216137993863
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "HOU 4 - 5 PHI",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "HOU 4 - 5 PHI",
      "winner": "PHI"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0198,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.068,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "model_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner": "PHI",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 6,
        "published_winner": "PHI",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4289,
      "winner": "PHI",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "PHI",
    "display_confidence": 0.5669,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5549,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5669,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.4289,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.068,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0198,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 1.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 3,
        "median": 5,
        "max": 6,
        "range": 3
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "config_hash": "sha256:4c40ee6a3671b3a7c2775a53d9c67b935e269d408c98251960ad257a5d502c6c",
      "parent_config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-09T13:40:22.642803+00:00",
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        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
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        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
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        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
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        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
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        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
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        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-10T16:36:48.548924+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-10T17:05:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
      "home_win_probability": 0.592538,
      "confidence": 0.592538,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "total_runs": 9
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
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          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
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            "score.variance_multiplier": 1.75,
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            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
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            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
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            "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
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            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
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            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
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            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "home",
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      "confidence": 0.594266,
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "config_hash": "sha256:572db7e04317a216045766487f754995efb5508ae620b5a5f13a0292cb5134dd",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-beeea24799c2c165",
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            "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
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            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
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            "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
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            "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
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            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
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    "diagnostics": {
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        "away": {
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        "recent_quality_blend": {
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      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.010791078553811,
      "home_runs": 5.983368668229911,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 6,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260910_PIT@CHW

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickPIT

Published scorePIT 4 - 3 CHW

Final confidence52.8%

Calibrationraw 62.9% → blended 58.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.2% · weight 50.0% · n=417

H2H base featurehome net -8.0 · absolute 8.0 · n=2

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.2308

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.866690292107629-5.498517969416038	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-3	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by opposing_starter_is_elite, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-3	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-3	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-3	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-3	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "confidence": -0.056568,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.528284,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.471716,
    "away_win_probability": 0.528284
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.056568,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "PIT wins 4-3",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 3,
    "predicted_score_text": "PIT 4 - 3 CHW",
    "confidence": 0.52828377125,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.629048,
    "sample_size": 417,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.542,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.585524,
    "published_confidence": 0.528284,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": -8.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 8.0,
    "home_average_margin": -4.0,
    "home_run_delta": -0.06,
    "away_run_delta": 0.06,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.0757,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.8,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.2308
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02911215006433469
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02722371235914164
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.026953674201821667
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.026903604280260774
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 2,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02616032970231603
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.07620880718497486,
      "1": 0.12297759570657496,
      "2": 0.164798004659398,
      "3": 0.18339311073447895,
      "4": 0.16948029149420443,
      "5": 0.1300650177448681,
      "6": 0.0828909131275855,
      "7": 0.04386907328966142,
      "8": 0.019280358891678465,
      "9": 0.007036827166575485
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05113097641038225,
      "1": 0.08424822145632826,
      "2": 0.12018607602565262,
      "3": 0.14844457488131493,
      "4": 0.15874178668839953,
      "5": 0.146972119584393,
      "6": 0.11781359554254339,
      "7": 0.08176597558149001,
      "8": 0.04913224342253772,
      "9": 0.025560969753845496,
      "10": 0.011513432457348373,
      "11": 0.004490028195764464
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "PIT 4 - 3 CHW",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "score_text": "PIT 4 - 3 CHW",
      "winner": "PIT"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0417,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.15,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
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      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "winner": "PIT",
      "model_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner": "PIT",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "PIT",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "PIT",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
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        "home_runs": 3
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3
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    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
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      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 3,
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      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
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    "internal_signal_score": 0.6104,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "confidence_compression_detected": true,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "low_total_lean",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.8,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0417,
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      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
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      "total_runs_spread": {
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        "median": 5,
        "max": 5,
        "range": 2
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    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
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          "wins": 73,
          "losses": 73,
          "win_pct": 0.5,
          "runs_scored": 707,
          "runs_allowed": 673,
          "run_differential": 34,
          "run_differential_per_game": 0.2328767123287671,
          "available": true
        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.0499,
        "win_pct_edge": 0.0172,
        "quality_edge": -0.2308,
        "season_quality_edge": 0.0757,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": 0.0757,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.8,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "conflict",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.2308
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.030515062605823783
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.02841986841427942
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 3,
            "away_runs": 5,
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          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
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          },
          {
            "home_runs": 2,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.027243894704656064
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        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.07393771673707977,
          "1": 0.12282367026888387,
          "2": 0.16753772934038016,
          "3": 0.18765394430868695,
          "4": 0.17259065924666245,
          "5": 0.13034410551468148,
          "6": 0.08083138544227508,
          "7": 0.041160739362129765,
          "8": 0.017210790973849553,
          "9": 0.005909258805370792
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.04890246751407659,
          "1": 0.08305226252985376,
          "2": 0.12105869803706011,
          "3": 0.15144828699965565,
          "4": 0.1626134889849537,
          "5": 0.14985547217253609,
          "6": 0.11852568685044747,
          "7": 0.08045928907565336,
          "8": 0.0468774238474784,
          "9": 0.02344094516543714,
          "10": 0.010060286220354299,
          "11": 0.0037056926024933326
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.866690292107629,
      "home_runs": 5.498517969416038,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by opposing_starter_is_elite, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 3,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260910_TB@ATL

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickTB

Published scoreTB 6 - 5 ATL

Final confidence50.6%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 52.6%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.2% · weight 50.0% · n=417

H2H base featurehome net -11.0 · absolute 11.0 · n=2

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0579

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.21697079179026-4.676679871115991	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-5	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	6-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	6-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	6-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": -0.011604,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505802,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.494198,
    "away_win_probability": 0.505802
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.011604,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TB wins 6-5",
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 6,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "TB 6 - 5 ATL",
    "confidence": 0.5058023975,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 417,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.542,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.52605,
    "published_confidence": 0.505802,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 2,
    "sample_weight": 0.03,
    "home_net_margin": -11.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 11.0,
    "home_average_margin": -5.5,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0825,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0825,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.313,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.416,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "conflict",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0579
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.024360820932009447
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.023144198584839803
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.022789331985863748
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.022597901459634487
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.02232794698631229
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0497635854452591,
      "1": 0.08208954949539926,
      "2": 0.11751138575978672,
      "3": 0.1459781615787147,
      "4": 0.1573662873322632,
      "5": 0.14721476650589832,
      "6": 0.11951073485848493,
      "7": 0.08419345386321357,
      "8": 0.05147135504639245,
      "9": 0.027306670147420175,
      "10": 0.01257151892616798,
      "11": 0.005022531040999569
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04762668073788504,
      "1": 0.07869953036841125,
      "2": 0.11324031450621314,
      "3": 0.1418851989509612,
      "4": 0.15480330218742472,
      "5": 0.1470721523471742,
      "6": 0.12167119578203887,
      "7": 0.08765005741444432,
      "8": 0.054982405189111655,
      "9": 0.030033252238976575,
      "10": 0.01428525817401203,
      "11": 0.005916718730990085,
      "12": 0.002133933372357095
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "TB 6 - 5 ATL",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "TB 6 - 5 ATL",
      "winner": "TB"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": true,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0252,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.766,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "TB",
      "model_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner": "TB",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "TB",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5,
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": true,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0579,
      "winner": "TB",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 6,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TB",
    "display_confidence": 0.5058,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5535,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5058,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0579,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": 0.416,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0252,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.5,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.5,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.0,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 10,
        "median": 11,
        "max": 11,
        "range": 1
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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        "score.variance_multiplier": 1.75,
        "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
        "recent.window_games": 10,
        "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
        "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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        "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
        "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
        "simulation.allow_score": true,
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
        "player.pitcher.v3.season_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.15,
        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_min": 0.55,
        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
        "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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      "config_hash": "sha256:572db7e04317a216045766487f754995efb5508ae620b5a5f13a0292cb5134dd",
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      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:ed8620a946c5b9ff74c187780441f57f9b765a55832e8c9d3f218ec7008f1d67"
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-10T15:36:39.242440+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-10T16:15:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.491969,
      "confidence": 0.508031,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "total_runs": 8
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
          "schema_version": "adaptive_config_snapshot_v1",
          "config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a-registry-4c40ee6a3671",
          "config_hash": "sha256:4c40ee6a3671b3a7c2775a53d9c67b935e269d408c98251960ad257a5d502c6c",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-11bc4bc2dfc7264a",
          "created_at_utc": "2026-09-09T13:40:22.642803+00:00",
          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.empirical_sample_scale": 200.0,
            "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
            "confidence.close_cap": 0.56,
            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
            "confidence.moderate_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.sparse_sample_max": 10,
            "confidence.sparse_cap": 0.53,
            "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
            "confidence.light_cap": 0.55,
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            "score.variance_multiplier": 1.75,
            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
            "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
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            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
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      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
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      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
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      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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    "diagnostics": {
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        "away": {
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.3397,
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        "recent_quality_blend": {
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    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
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      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.21697079179026,
      "home_runs": 4.676679871115991,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 6,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260910_TEX@SEA

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickSEA

Published scoreTEX 4 - 5 SEA

Final confidence52.7%

Calibrationraw 51.0% → blended 53.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 55.0% · weight 50.0% · n=549

H2H base featurehome net -12.0 · absolute 12.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.3715

Simulation variance1.75

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	3.902514155344706-4.3480114586377985	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.054592,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.527296,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.527296,
    "away_win_probability": 0.472704
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.054592,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "SEA wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "TEX 4 - 5 SEA",
    "confidence": 0.52729605,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.5101,
    "sample_size": 549,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5501,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5301,
    "published_confidence": 0.527296,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -12.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 12.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.4,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0692,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0692,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": 1.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -5.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -6.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.2808,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.54,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.3715
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02201285249751714
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.021845958204836587
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.021556483639830825
      },
      {
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        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.02139304938749323
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.019706266640635652
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.041878282018934766,
      "1": 0.06953694913895442,
      "2": 0.1015218230257107,
      "3": 0.13032273417435353,
      "4": 0.1470950160342283,
      "5": 0.14597978943373952,
      "6": 0.12738095709976402,
      "7": 0.09773121150634498,
      "8": 0.0659293899341725,
      "9": 0.03910585914343131,
      "10": 0.020394901214384135,
      "11": 0.009352298942868174,
      "12": 0.0037707883331136423
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.0436282959822752,
      "1": 0.07233547530825109,
      "2": 0.10513905152585003,
      "3": 0.13396964201730735,
      "4": 0.14965056662691315,
      "5": 0.1465480219589135,
      "6": 0.12580884720203214,
      "7": 0.09468300470589493,
      "8": 0.062468705560644905,
      "9": 0.03613121856003512,
      "10": 0.018320289722052106,
      "11": 0.008143511100809396,
      "12": 0.003173369729021185
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 1.75,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "TEX 4 - 5 SEA",
      "winner": "SEA"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "TEX 4 - 5 SEA",
      "winner": "SEA"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0312,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.61,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
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      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "SEA",
      "model_winner": "SEA",
      "simulation_winner": "SEA",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "SEA",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "SEA",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
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      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
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      "model_score": {
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      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
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    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
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      "pre_margin": 1,
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      "score_reviewed": {
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        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
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    "internal_signal_score": 0.5415,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
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    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "moneyline_preferred_over_margin",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
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      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": -0.0312,
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      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.0,
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        "median": 14,
        "max": 14,
        "range": 5
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        },
        "run_differential_edge_per_game": -0.2397,
        "win_pct_edge": -0.0274,
        "quality_edge": -0.3715,
        "season_quality_edge": -0.2808,
        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
          "season_quality_edge": -0.2808,
          "recent_quality_edge": -0.54,
          "season_weight": 0.65,
          "recent_weight": 0.35,
          "recent_reliability": 1.0,
          "alignment": "aligned",
          "blended_quality_edge": -0.3715
        },
        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
        "most_likely": [
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.023154455825131027
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 4,
            "probability": 0.02296830977833859
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.02264564816262377
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 5,
            "away_runs": 5,
            "probability": 0.022463592582723266
          },
          {
            "home_runs": 4,
            "away_runs": 3,
            "probability": 0.02058965915843321
          }
        ],
        "home_distribution": {
          "0": 0.039744778380319104,
          "1": 0.06805404317625116,
          "2": 0.10166183309139128,
          "3": 0.13249274311051154,
          "4": 0.1506455816589813,
          "5": 0.1494344938362163,
          "6": 0.12932290943074995,
          "7": 0.0976405523714747,
          "8": 0.06431542445418405,
          "9": 0.03695985034614807,
          "10": 0.018530000002505525,
          "11": 0.008104958325536444,
          "12": 0.00309283181573068
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.04158388183432846,
          "1": 0.07109125527606773,
          "2": 0.10569929556978168,
          "3": 0.13667615692202867,
          "4": 0.15370152625880606,
          "5": 0.15032401158559744,
          "6": 0.12786252877654575,
          "7": 0.09458515444377887,
          "8": 0.06085095813231398,
          "9": 0.03404682511062154,
          "10": 0.016567255671826996,
          "11": 0.007011150418302762
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.65,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 3.902514155344706,
      "home_runs": 4.3480114586377985,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

Date	Game	Pick	Final confidence	Raw confidence	Empirical hit rate	Empirical weight	Pred A-H	Actual A-H	Result	Largest recorded movement	Pipeline	Roadmap signals
20260910	20260910_COL@NYY	NYY	58.0%	85.6%	54.8%	50.0%	4.0-8.0	3-10	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.856144, "sample_size": 199, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5477, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.701922, "published_confidence": 0.58, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 2, "sample_weight": 0.03, "home_net_margin": 7.0, "absolute_net_margin": 7.0, "home_average_margin": 3.5, "home_run_delta": 0.0525, "away_run_delta": -0.0525, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 5.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 2.1586, "recent_quality_edge": 0.904, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 1.7195 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.014733644768376334 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.014631443001248273 }, { "home_runs": 8, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.014485209416361566 }, { "home_runs": 7, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.014384730952081657 }, { "home_runs": 9, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.013760911365369284 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.01268682180978032, "1": 0.021636056130109552, "2": 0.03422294085629955, "3": 0.050207722546619656, "4": 0.06831839974522524, "5": 0.08622214367969465, "6": 0.10092852240891537, "7": 0.10957790228245243, "8": 0.11034331245084779, "9": 0.10305831084352236, "10": 0.08927584936849998, "11": 0.07172968596382598, "12": 0.05345370790407465, "13": 0.036946279446701764, "14": 0.023685227103614447, "15": 0.014083103264087066, "16": 0.007766639409907446, "17": 0.003972664490963175, "18": 0.0018847102948586333 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.02920966967589919, "1": 0.04903009867246978, "2": 0.07394938750275298, "3": 0.10021715913982318, "4": 0.12203524753332382, "5": 0.13352548914044435, "6": 0.13127401284798274, "7": 0.11596556203297297, "8": 0.0920481375276564, "9": 0.06565029264408996, "10": 0.042072083480827985, "11": 0.024226298564049096, "12": 0.012534753653419106, "13": 0.0058274725108343845, "14": 0.002434335073454049 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 8, "score_text": "COL 4 - 8 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 8, "score_text": "COL 4 - 8 NYY", "winner": "NYY" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0924, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 1.254, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 8, "winner": "NYY", "model_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner": "NYY", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "NYY", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "NYY", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 4, "simulation_margin": 4, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 8 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 8 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 4, "final_margin": 4, "winner_quality_edge": 1.7195, "winner": "NYY", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 8, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260910	20260910_HOU@PHI	PHI	56.7%	61.0%	55.9%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	2-1	miss	Enhanced Prediction (-1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.61, "sample_size": 313, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5591, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.58455, "published_confidence": 0.566859, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 2, "sample_weight": 0.03, "home_net_margin": 3.0, "absolute_net_margin": 3.0, "home_average_margin": 1.5, "home_run_delta": 0.0225, "away_run_delta": -0.0225, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 4.0 }, { "home_margin": -1.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.6233, "recent_quality_edge": 0.068, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.4289 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.022717820861471897 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.021760079436394932 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02151904012651874 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02109022879958114 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.020688643559826934 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.035220045439377394, "1": 0.05881151952710289, "2": 0.08732594930993925, "3": 0.11530088928035831, "4": 0.13537249231192708, "5": 0.1413307354370048, "6": 0.13120525797589114, "7": 0.10831142919882729, "8": 0.079507071981534, "9": 0.05189740705195948, "10": 0.030122706202293844, "11": 0.015547148207852881, "12": 0.007135360463757417, "13": 0.002911987612174272 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05331929262498383, "1": 0.08769269964529917, "2": 0.1244125159152629, "3": 0.15226015813177735, "4": 0.16074225320647176, "5": 0.14638460272534604, "6": 0.11499588939376591, "7": 0.07792751114578689, "8": 0.04555340729348853, "9": 0.02297060845040504, "10": 0.009991845329418703, "11": 0.003749216137993863 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "HOU 4 - 5 PHI", "winner": "PHI" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "HOU 4 - 5 PHI", "winner": "PHI" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0198, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.068, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "PHI", "model_winner": "PHI", "simulation_winner": "PHI", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 6, "published_winner": "PHI", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.4289, "winner": "PHI", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260910	20260910_PIT@CHW	PIT	52.8%	62.9%	54.2%	50.0%	4.0-3.0	2-0	hit	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.629048, "sample_size": 417, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.542, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.585524, "published_confidence": 0.528284, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 2, "sample_weight": 0.03, "home_net_margin": -8.0, "absolute_net_margin": 8.0, "home_average_margin": -4.0, "home_run_delta": -0.06, "away_run_delta": 0.06, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.0757, "recent_quality_edge": -0.8, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": -0.2308 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02911215006433469 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02722371235914164 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.026953674201821667 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.026903604280260774 }, { "home_runs": 2, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02616032970231603 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.07620880718497486, "1": 0.12297759570657496, "2": 0.164798004659398, "3": 0.18339311073447895, "4": 0.16948029149420443, "5": 0.1300650177448681, "6": 0.0828909131275855, "7": 0.04386907328966142, "8": 0.019280358891678465, "9": 0.007036827166575485 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05113097641038225, "1": 0.08424822145632826, "2": 0.12018607602565262, "3": 0.14844457488131493, "4": 0.15874178668839953, "5": 0.146972119584393, "6": 0.11781359554254339, "7": 0.08176597558149001, "8": 0.04913224342253772, "9": 0.025560969753845496, "10": 0.011513432457348373, "11": 0.004490028195764464 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "PIT 4 - 3 CHW", "winner": "PIT" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "score_text": "PIT 4 - 3 CHW", "winner": "PIT" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0417, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -1.15, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "winner": "PIT", "model_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner": "PIT", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "PIT", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "PIT", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.2308, "winner": "PIT", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 3, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260910	20260910_TB@ATL	TB	50.6%	51.0%	54.2%	50.0%	6.0-5.0	1-3	miss	Enhanced Prediction (2.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 417, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.542, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.52605, "published_confidence": 0.505802, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 2, "sample_weight": 0.03, "home_net_margin": -11.0, "absolute_net_margin": 11.0, "home_average_margin": -5.5, "home_run_delta": -0.0825, "away_run_delta": 0.0825, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.313, "recent_quality_edge": -0.416, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "conflict", "blended_quality_edge": 0.0579 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.024360820932009447 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.023144198584839803 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.022789331985863748 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.022597901459634487 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.02232794698631229 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.0497635854452591, "1": 0.08208954949539926, "2": 0.11751138575978672, "3": 0.1459781615787147, "4": 0.1573662873322632, "5": 0.14721476650589832, "6": 0.11951073485848493, "7": 0.08419345386321357, "8": 0.05147135504639245, "9": 0.027306670147420175, "10": 0.01257151892616798, "11": 0.005022531040999569 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04762668073788504, "1": 0.07869953036841125, "2": 0.11324031450621314, "3": 0.1418851989509612, "4": 0.15480330218742472, "5": 0.1470721523471742, "6": 0.12167119578203887, "7": 0.08765005741444432, "8": 0.054982405189111655, "9": 0.030033252238976575, "10": 0.01428525817401203, "11": 0.005916718730990085, "12": 0.002133933372357095 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TB 6 - 5 ATL", "winner": "TB" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TB 6 - 5 ATL", "winner": "TB" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": true, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0252, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.766, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "TB", "model_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner": "TB", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "TB", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.5, "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": true, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.0579, "winner": "TB", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 6, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260910	20260910_TEX@SEA	SEA	52.7%	51.0%	55.0%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	3-4	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.5101, "sample_size": 549, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5501, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5301, "published_confidence": 0.527296, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -12.0, "absolute_net_margin": 12.0, "home_average_margin": -2.4, "home_run_delta": -0.0692, "away_run_delta": 0.0692, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": 1.0 }, { "home_margin": -5.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 2.0 }, { "home_margin": -6.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.2808, "recent_quality_edge": -0.54, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.3715 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02201285249751714 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.021845958204836587 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.021556483639830825 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.02139304938749323 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.019706266640635652 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.041878282018934766, "1": 0.06953694913895442, "2": 0.1015218230257107, "3": 0.13032273417435353, "4": 0.1470950160342283, "5": 0.14597978943373952, "6": 0.12738095709976402, "7": 0.09773121150634498, "8": 0.0659293899341725, "9": 0.03910585914343131, "10": 0.020394901214384135, "11": 0.009352298942868174, "12": 0.0037707883331136423 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.0436282959822752, "1": 0.07233547530825109, "2": 0.10513905152585003, "3": 0.13396964201730735, "4": 0.14965056662691315, "5": 0.1465480219589135, "6": 0.12580884720203214, "7": 0.09468300470589493, "8": 0.062468705560644905, "9": 0.03613121856003512, "10": 0.018320289722052106, "11": 0.008143511100809396, "12": 0.003173369729021185 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 1.75, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TEX 4 - 5 SEA", "winner": "SEA" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "TEX 4 - 5 SEA", "winner": "SEA" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0312, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.61, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "SEA", "model_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner": "SEA", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "SEA", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "SEA", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.3715, "winner": "SEA", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }

Starting-pitcher component quality

H	{ "mae": 2.0, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 2.0 }
R	{ "mae": 1.7, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 1.7 }
ER	{ "mae": 1.6, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 1.6 }
BB	{ "mae": 0.9, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.1 }
SO	{ "mae": 2.5, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -1.1 }
HR	{ "mae": 0.5, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.3 }
IP_outs	{ "mae_outs": 4.6, "mae_innings": 1.5333, "bias_outs": -1.4 }

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

Date

Game

Side

Pred starter

Actual starter

Match

Pred IP

Actual IP

Δ outs

Pred ER

Actual ER

Δ ER

H P/A

BB P/A

SO P/A

All context

20260910

20260910_COL@NYY

away

Ryan Feltner

True

4.2

5.0

7/6

0/1

5/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.90625,
      "WHIP": 1.5656249999999998,
      "IP": 106.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 22,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.889,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.2,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.437,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0371,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9634,
      "walk_factor": 1.016,
      "homer_factor": 1.0781,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 16.9,
      "bb_percent": 10.0,
      "woba": 0.372,
      "xwoba": 0.348,
      "barrel_percent": 10.0,
      "hard_hit_percent": 37.0,
      "whiff_percent": 23.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 251,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 22.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8148,
        "prior_weight": 0.1852
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "663372",
      "report_date": "20260910",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 22,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.2,
            "ER": 18.0,
            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 33.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 121.0,
            "Pitches": 445.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.6,
            "R": 4.2,
            "H": 6.6,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 0.2,
            "BF": 24.2,
            "Pitches": 89.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 6.5676,
            "WHIP": 1.9459,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.72973,
            "H_per_IP": 1.33784,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.60811,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.89189,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.04054
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 47.2,
            "ER": 42.0,
            "R": 45.0,
            "H": 67.0,
            "BB": 28.0,
            "SO": 37.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 235.0,
            "Pitches": 868.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 4.2,
            "R": 4.5,
            "H": 6.7,
            "BB": 2.8,
            "SO": 3.7,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 23.5,
            "Pitches": 86.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 7.9301,
            "WHIP": 1.993,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.88112,
            "H_per_IP": 1.40559,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.58741,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.77622,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20979
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 22,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 106.2,
            "ER": 70.0,
            "R": 76.0,
            "H": 119.0,
            "BB": 48.0,
            "SO": 81.0,
            "HR": 19.0,
            "BF": 479.0,
            "Pitches": 1780.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 3.1818,
            "R": 3.4545,
            "H": 5.4091,
            "BB": 2.1818,
            "SO": 3.6818,
            "HR": 0.8636,
            "BF": 21.7727,
            "Pitches": 80.9091
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.9062,
            "WHIP": 1.5656,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.65625,
            "H_per_IP": 1.11562,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.45,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.75937,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.17813
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 3.526,
        "predicted_H": 6.148,
        "predicted_BB": 2.612,
        "predicted_SO": 4.151,
        "predicted_HR": 0.642,
        "predicted_ERA": 6.4704,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.786
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4282,
      "form_weight": 0.5718,
      "form_reliability": 0.8148,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
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          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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          ],
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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          ],
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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        ],
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "COL",
        "games": 145,
        "wins": 55,
        "losses": 90,
        "win_pct": 0.3793,
        "runs_scored": 683.0,
        "runs_allowed": 830.0,
        "run_differential": -147.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -1.0138,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7103,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7241,
        "offense_index": 1.0475,
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        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9,
          "run_differential": -7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.2966
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "NYY",
        "games": 145,
        "wins": 83,
        "losses": 62,
        "win_pct": 0.5724,
        "runs_scored": 657.0,
        "runs_allowed": 533.0,
        "run_differential": 124.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.8552,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.531,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6759,
        "offense_index": 1.0076,
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        "current_streak": "W2",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 5.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.5,
          "run_differential": 16.0
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        "available": true,
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      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.4977,
        "offense_edge": 0.0475,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0076,
        "defense_strength": -0.2144,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.3
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9734,
        "run_prevention": 1.0475,
        "strikeout": 0.9845
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "663372",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "663372",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 408.0,
            "k_percent": 16.9,
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            "xwoba": 0.348,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 31.8,
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            "avg_best_speed": 75.5132,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.5425,
            "whiff_percent": 23.7,
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
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            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.5981,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.6985,
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            "regression_edge": 0.6857,
            "xwoba_edge": -1.0571,
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            "hard_hit_edge": 0.1286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.1857,
            "bb_edge": -0.2,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0237
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "663372",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 89,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 89,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.45121101288434,
              "release_spin_rate": 2332.457513921126,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 89,
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                "release_speed": 89.45121101288434,
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                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.4512,
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            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0237,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
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              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.437,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0371,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9634,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.024,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "663372",
            "espn_id": 4019484,
            "player_name": "Ryan Feltner",
            "team": "COL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 251,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 251,
              "gp_value": 22.0,
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              "w_value": 5.0,
              "w_rank": 144,
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              "l_rank": 31,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 249,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 351,
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              "ip_rank": 116,
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              "h_rank": 76,
              "er_value": 70.0,
              "er_rank": 29,
              "hr_value": 19.0,
              "hr_rank": 48,
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              "k_rank": 153,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.8343754,
              "k_per_9_rank": 35,
              "whip_value": 1.575,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.53,
              "war_rank": null
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            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0371,
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0371,
            "adjusted": 6
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.016,
            "adjusted": 3
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0781,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9634,
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 5,
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      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 21,
      "Pitches": 92,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260910_COL@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260910

20260910_COL@NYY

home

Max Fried

True

6.0

3.1

-8

-1

7/1

1/2

7/7

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 2.7282229965156795,
      "WHIP": 0.9930313588850174,
      "IP": 95.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 17,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.627,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.2,
      "last_start_IP": 5.2,
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              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0799,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.5706,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.8339,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9291,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0063,
          "walk_factor": 0.974,
          "homer_factor": 0.8008,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.006,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "608331",
            "espn_id": 32685,
            "player_name": "Max Fried",
            "team": "NYY",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 24,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 24,
              "gp_value": 17.0,
              "gp_rank": 432,
              "gs_value": 17.0,
              "gs_rank": 122,
              "qs_value": 7.0,
              "qs_rank": 82,
              "era_value": 2.7282,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 4.0,
              "w_rank": 190,
              "l_value": 4.0,
              "l_rank": 186,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 249,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 351,
              "ip_value": 95.2,
              "ip_rank": 134,
              "h_value": 66.0,
              "h_rank": 177,
              "er_value": 29.0,
              "er_rank": 197,
              "hr_value": 3.0,
              "hr_rank": 441,
              "bb_value": 29.0,
              "bb_rank": 174,
              "k_value": 87.0,
              "k_rank": 138,
              "k_per_9_value": 8.184669,
              "k_per_9_rank": 27,
              "whip_value": 0.993,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 3.28,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9291,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9291,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.974,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.82,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0063,
            "adjusted": 5
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 28,
      "Pitches": 113,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -8 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -6."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: True; actual quality start: False."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260910_COL@NYY.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260910

20260910_HOU@PHI

away

Cristian Javier

True

4.0

6.0

-4

7/3

2/1

6/5

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 5.979865771812081,
      "WHIP": 1.5503355704697988,
      "IP": 49.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 14,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.037,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.8,
      "last_start_IP": 5.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1862,
      "sample_weight": 0.668,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0158,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0206,
      "walk_factor": 1.0094,
      "homer_factor": 1.0351,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 22.4,
      "bb_percent": 9.9,
      "woba": 0.36,
      "xwoba": 0.34,
      "barrel_percent": 9.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.6,
      "whiff_percent": 30.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 734,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 14.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7368,
        "prior_weight": 0.2632
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "664299",
      "report_date": "20260910",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 14,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.1,
            "ER": 13.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 7.0,
            "SO": 27.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 98.0,
            "Pitches": 420.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.1,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 1.4,
            "SO": 5.4,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 19.6,
            "Pitches": 84.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.2388,
            "WHIP": 1.3881,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.58209,
            "H_per_IP": 1.07463,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31343,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.20896,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.22388
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 38.1,
            "ER": 19.0,
            "R": 19.0,
            "H": 40.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 166.0,
            "Pitches": 685.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.0,
            "ER": 1.9,
            "R": 1.9,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.2,
            "SO": 4.2,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 16.6,
            "Pitches": 68.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.4609,
            "WHIP": 1.3565,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.49565,
            "H_per_IP": 1.04348,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31304,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.09565,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15652
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 14,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 49.2,
            "ER": 33.0,
            "R": 33.0,
            "H": 55.0,
            "BB": 22.0,
            "SO": 50.0,
            "HR": 9.0,
            "BF": 223.0,
            "Pitches": 900.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.2,
            "ER": 2.3571,
            "R": 2.3571,
            "H": 3.9286,
            "BB": 1.5714,
            "SO": 3.5714,
            "HR": 0.6429,
            "BF": 15.9286,
            "Pitches": 64.2857
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.9799,
            "WHIP": 1.5503,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.66443,
            "H_per_IP": 1.10738,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44295,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.00671,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18121
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.287,
        "predicted_H": 4.335,
        "predicted_BB": 1.443,
        "predicted_SO": 4.477,
        "predicted_HR": 0.747,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.96,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3924
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4612,
      "form_weight": 0.5388,
      "form_reliability": 0.7368,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 14.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7368,
        "prior_weight": 0.2632
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 4.1,
          "form": 4.0,
          "final": 4.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 2.287,
          "final": 3.5382,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 4.335,
          "final": 5.5641,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.443,
          "final": 1.6999,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.477,
          "final": 5.1794,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.747,
          "final": 0.4025,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.96,
          "final": 4.96,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3924,
          "final": 1.3924,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 38.1,
        "ER": 19,
        "H": 40,
        "BB": 12,
        "SO": 42,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 4.460869565217392,
        "WHIP": 1.356521739130435,
        "K9": 9.860869565217392,
        "HR9": 1.4086956521739131,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-04T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.00615494178056,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 5.0,
          "predicted_H": 7.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 6.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 14.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7368,
          "prior_weight": 0.2632
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
        "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.0,
          "predicted_ER": 5,
          "predicted_H": 7,
          "predicted_BB": 2,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "664299",
      "player_name": "Cristian Javier",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "HOU",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "starter_usage_guardrail",
          "description": "Starter workload capped by recent innings, season ERA/WHIP, and team-form context.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0769,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.3333,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": -0.3333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0769,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 5.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 4.0,
            "predicted_R": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": -0.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0769,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 4.3333,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": -0.3333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0769,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 146,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.5068,
        "runs_scored": 660.0,
        "runs_allowed": 701.0,
        "run_differential": -41.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2808,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5205,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8014,
        "offense_index": 1.0045,
        "defense_index": 0.9373,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0065
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 146,
        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 64,
        "win_pct": 0.5616,
        "runs_scored": 658.0,
        "runs_allowed": 620.0,
        "run_differential": 38.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2603,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5068,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2466,
        "offense_index": 1.0014,
        "defense_index": 1.0598,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
          "run_differential": 11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1192
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1127,
        "offense_edge": 0.0045,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0014,
        "defense_strength": -0.0627,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0598,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9936,
        "run_prevention": 1.0121,
        "strikeout": 0.9965
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "664299",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "664299",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 167.0,
            "k_percent": 22.4,
            "bb_percent": 9.9,
            "woba": 0.36,
            "xwoba": 0.34,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 39.6,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 9.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.9323,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.1518,
            "whiff_percent": 30.0,
            "swing_percent": 51.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5981,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9191,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.7011,
            "command_and_miss": 0.2407,
            "regression_edge": 0.5714,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.8286,
            "barrel_edge": -0.5111,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.3286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.7143,
            "bb_edge": -0.175,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0734
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "664299",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 86,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 86,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 88.56457245574717,
              "release_spin_rate": 2333.204506137456,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 86,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 88.56457245574717,
                "release_spin_rate": 2333.204506137456,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 88.5646,
              "release_spin_rate": 2333.2045,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0734,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.5242,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1862,
          "sample_weight": 0.668,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0158,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0206,
          "walk_factor": 1.0094,
          "homer_factor": 1.0351,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.02,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "664299",
            "espn_id": 41261,
            "player_name": "Cristian Javier",
            "team": "HOU",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 734,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 734,
              "gp_value": 14.0,
              "gp_rank": 473,
              "gs_value": 9.0,
              "gs_rank": 179,
              "qs_value": 1.0,
              "qs_rank": 176,
              "era_value": 5.9798,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 2.0,
              "w_rank": 316,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 135,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 249,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 351,
              "ip_value": 49.2,
              "ip_rank": 302,
              "h_value": 55.0,
              "h_rank": 210,
              "er_value": 33.0,
              "er_rank": 173,
              "hr_value": 9.0,
              "hr_rank": 176,
              "bb_value": 22.0,
              "bb_rank": 260,
              "k_value": 50.0,
              "k_rank": 291,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.060403,
              "k_per_9_rank": 26,
              "whip_value": 1.5503,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": -0.37,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0106,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0106,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0063,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0234,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0138,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.0,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 5,
      "predicted_ER": 5,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 89,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +6 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was -4."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260910_HOU@PHI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260910

20260910_HOU@PHI

home

Zack Wheeler

True

5.2

7.0

-2

7/5

1/2

6/9

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.2347188264058677,
      "WHIP": 1.078239608801956,
      "IP": 136.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 24,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.681,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.2,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.6684,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9432,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0794,
      "walk_factor": 0.974,
      "homer_factor": 0.9349,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 29.8,
      "bb_percent": 7.9,
      "woba": 0.287,
      "xwoba": 0.271,
      "barrel_percent": 6.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 35.0,
      "whiff_percent": 31.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 11,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 136.1,
      "season_ERA": 3.235,
      "season_WHIP": 1.078,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "554430",
      "report_date": "20260910",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 24,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.0,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 17.0,
            "H": 24.0,
            "BB": 15.0,
            "SO": 31.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 116.0,
            "Pitches": 488.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 3.2,
            "R": 3.4,
            "H": 4.8,
            "BB": 3.0,
            "SO": 6.2,
            "HR": 1.2,
            "BF": 23.2,
            "Pitches": 97.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.5385,
            "WHIP": 1.5,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.61538,
            "H_per_IP": 0.92308,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.57692,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.19231,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.23077
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 49.1,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 45.0,
            "BB": 23.0,
            "SO": 65.0,
            "HR": 10.0,
            "BF": 214.0,
            "Pitches": 893.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.7,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 4.5,
            "BB": 2.3,
            "SO": 6.5,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 21.4,
            "Pitches": 89.3
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.9257,
            "WHIP": 1.3784,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5473,
            "H_per_IP": 0.91216,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.46622,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.31757,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.2027
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 24,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 136.1,
            "ER": 49.0,
            "R": 50.0,
            "H": 104.0,
            "BB": 43.0,
            "SO": 163.0,
            "HR": 20.0,
            "BF": 547.0,
            "Pitches": 2250.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.0417,
            "R": 2.0833,
            "H": 4.3333,
            "BB": 1.7917,
            "SO": 6.7917,
            "HR": 0.8333,
            "BF": 22.7917,
            "Pitches": 93.75
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.2347,
            "WHIP": 1.0782,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.35941,
            "H_per_IP": 0.76284,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3154,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.1956,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.1467
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.1,
        "predicted_ER": 2.856,
        "predicted_H": 4.825,
        "predicted_BB": 2.494,
        "predicted_SO": 6.342,
        "predicted_HR": 1.039,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.8052,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3682
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4228,
      "form_weight": 0.5772,
      "form_reliability": 0.8276,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 24.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8276,
        "prior_weight": 0.1724
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.2,
          "form": 5.1,
          "final": 5.1,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.856,
          "final": 3.3397,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 8.0,
          "form": 4.825,
          "final": 6.1675,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.494,
          "final": 1.8623,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 6.342,
          "final": 5.7746,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.039,
          "final": 0.5997,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.8052,
          "final": 4.8052,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3682,
          "final": 1.3682,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 49.1,
        "ER": 27,
        "H": 45,
        "BB": 23,
        "SO": 65,
        "HR": 10,
        "ERA": 4.925675675675676,
        "WHIP": 1.3783783783783785,
        "K9": 11.858108108108109,
        "HR9": 1.8243243243243246,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 4,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-05T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0589920451883157,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 4.0,
          "predicted_H": 8.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 24.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8276,
          "prior_weight": 0.1724
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 8,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "554430",
      "player_name": "Zack Wheeler",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PHI",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 4.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 8.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 8.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 3,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 2,
            "better_metrics": 2,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.25,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 7.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.125,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
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            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 8.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": -1.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.125,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 8.0,
            "after": 7.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.125,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 4,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 3,
          "better_metrics": 3,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": -1.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.25,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PHI",
        "games": 146,
        "wins": 82,
        "losses": 64,
        "win_pct": 0.5616,
        "runs_scored": 658.0,
        "runs_allowed": 620.0,
        "run_differential": 38.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2603,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5068,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.2466,
        "offense_index": 1.0014,
        "defense_index": 1.0598,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.0,
          "run_differential": 11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1192
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "HOU",
        "games": 146,
        "wins": 74,
        "losses": 72,
        "win_pct": 0.5068,
        "runs_scored": 660.0,
        "runs_allowed": 701.0,
        "run_differential": -41.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2808,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5205,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8014,
        "offense_index": 1.0045,
        "defense_index": 0.9373,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.2,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.7,
          "run_differential": 5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0065
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.1127,
        "offense_edge": 0.0014,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0045,
        "defense_strength": 0.0598,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0627,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0061,
        "run_prevention": 0.9891,
        "strikeout": 1.003
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "554430",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "554430",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 473.0,
            "k_percent": 29.8,
            "bb_percent": 7.9,
            "woba": 0.287,
            "xwoba": 0.271,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 35.0,
            "avg_best_speed": 74.929,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.4258,
            "whiff_percent": 31.1,
            "swing_percent": 49.5
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5981,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9191,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.706,
            "command_and_miss": 0.8714,
            "regression_edge": 0.4571,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.1429,
            "barrel_edge": 0.1778,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4143,
            "whiff_edge": 0.8714,
            "bb_edge": 0.325,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0094
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "554430",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 99,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 99,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.04289921739226,
              "release_spin_rate": 2372.877200953717,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 99,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 90.04289921739226,
                "release_spin_rate": 2372.877200953717,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.0429,
              "release_spin_rate": 2372.8772,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0094,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": 0.0671,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.6684,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9432,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0794,
          "walk_factor": 0.974,
          "homer_factor": 0.9349,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.016,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "554430",
            "espn_id": 31267,
            "player_name": "Zack Wheeler",
            "team": "PHI",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 11,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 11,
              "gp_value": 24.0,
              "gp_rank": 339,
              "gs_value": 24.0,
              "gs_rank": 71,
              "qs_value": 14.0,
              "qs_rank": 23,
              "era_value": 3.2347,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 12.0,
              "w_rank": 17,
              "l_value": 5.0,
              "l_rank": 135,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 249,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 351,
              "ip_value": 136.1,
              "ip_rank": 69,
              "h_value": 104.0,
              "h_rank": 111,
              "er_value": 49.0,
              "er_rank": 107,
              "hr_value": 20.0,
              "hr_rank": 38,
              "bb_value": 43.0,
              "bb_rank": 67,
              "k_value": 163.0,
              "k_rank": 23,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.760391,
              "k_per_9_rank": 9,
              "whip_value": 1.0782,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 4.44,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9432,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9432,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.974,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9349,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0794,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 108,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260910_HOU@PHI.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260910

20260910_PIT@CHW

away

Jared Jones

True

4.2

7.0

-3

2/1

2/2

4/8

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.461864406779661,
      "WHIP": 1.233050847457627,
      "IP": 78.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 17,
      "role_avg_IP": 4.627,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.533,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.3207,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9727,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.072,
      "walk_factor": 0.984,
      "homer_factor": 1.0121,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 27.6,
      "bb_percent": 8.4,
      "woba": 0.312,
      "xwoba": 0.295,
      "barrel_percent": 8.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 39.3,
      "whiff_percent": 32.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 166,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 17.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7727,
        "prior_weight": 0.2273
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "683003",
      "report_date": "20260910",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 17,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 22.2,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 14.0,
            "H": 23.0,
            "BB": 12.0,
            "SO": 30.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 104.0,
            "Pitches": 418.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 2.8,
            "H": 4.6,
            "BB": 2.4,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 20.8,
            "Pitches": 83.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.5588,
            "WHIP": 1.5441,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.61765,
            "H_per_IP": 1.01471,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.52941,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.32353,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13235
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 49.2,
            "ER": 22.0,
            "R": 22.0,
            "H": 40.0,
            "BB": 17.0,
            "SO": 61.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 207.0,
            "Pitches": 812.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 1.7,
            "SO": 6.1,
            "HR": 0.7,
            "BF": 20.7,
            "Pitches": 81.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9866,
            "WHIP": 1.1477,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.44295,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80537,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34228,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.22819,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14094
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 17,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 78.2,
            "ER": 39.0,
            "R": 40.0,
            "H": 69.0,
            "BB": 28.0,
            "SO": 92.0,
            "HR": 12.0,
            "BF": 333.0,
            "Pitches": 1312.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.2941,
            "R": 2.3529,
            "H": 4.0588,
            "BB": 1.6471,
            "SO": 5.4118,
            "HR": 0.7059,
            "BF": 19.5882,
            "Pitches": 77.1765
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.4619,
            "WHIP": 1.2331,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.49576,
            "H_per_IP": 0.87712,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.35593,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.16949,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15254
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 4.2,
        "predicted_ER": 2.5,
        "predicted_H": 4.411,
        "predicted_BB": 1.979,
        "predicted_SO": 5.645,
        "predicted_HR": 0.671,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.7295,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.3435
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.446,
      "form_weight": 0.554,
      "form_reliability": 0.7727,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 17.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7727,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_H": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-04T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.9475752802690338,
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        "stats": {
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "683003",
      "player_name": "Jared Jones",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "PIT",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          {
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 146,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 707.0,
        "runs_allowed": 673.0,
        "run_differential": 34.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2329,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.8425,
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      },
      "opponent": {
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        "runs_scored": 685.0,
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        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7241,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4414,
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      "player_factors": {
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
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        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "683003",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
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          "components": {
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            "pitch_design_score": 0.2124
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "683003",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 79,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 79,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 93.66750722649874,
              "release_spin_rate": 2505.3321423171064,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 79,
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                "release_speed": 93.66750722649874,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
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                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 93.6675,
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            "components": {
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              "velocity_edge": 1.517,
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              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.3207,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9727,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "683003",
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            "player_name": "Jared Jones",
            "team": "PIT",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 166,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 166,
              "gp_value": 17.0,
              "gp_rank": 432,
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              "qs_rank": 123,
              "era_value": 4.4618,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 3.0,
              "w_rank": 243,
              "l_value": 6.0,
              "l_rank": 113,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
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              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 351,
              "ip_value": 78.2,
              "ip_rank": 165,
              "h_value": 69.0,
              "h_rank": 167,
              "er_value": 39.0,
              "er_rank": 155,
              "hr_value": 12.0,
              "hr_rank": 135,
              "bb_value": 28.0,
              "bb_rank": 188,
              "k_value": 92.0,
              "k_rank": 123,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.525424,
              "k_per_9_rank": 20,
              "whip_value": 1.233,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 1.17,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9727,
            "adjusted": 3
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9727,
            "adjusted": 4
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.984,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0121,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.072,
            "adjusted": 6
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 84,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -3."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +7 outs from the projected workload."
    },
    {
      "code": "MISSED_SHUTDOWN",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Model missed a shutdown outing",
      "detail": "The pitcher allowed zero earned runs after a projection of 3 ER."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260910_PIT@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260910

20260910_PIT@CHW

home

Hagen Smith

True

4.2

2.0

-8

-1

4/2

2/0

4/3

Last 10 before this game (9 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "ERA": 0.0,
      "WHIP": 0.875,
      "IP": 16.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 9,
      "role_avg_IP": 3.0,
      "recent_avg_IP": 3.0,
      "last_start_IP": 3.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.3468,
      "sample_weight": 0.45,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9705,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0653,
      "walk_factor": 1.0621,
      "homer_factor": 0.9435,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 37.1,
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      "woba": 0.209,
      "xwoba": 0.264,
      "barrel_percent": 3.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.5,
      "whiff_percent": 35.3
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 187,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "effective_weights": {
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        "last_10": 0.3835616438356164
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      "shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 3.229,
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "696146",
      "report_date": "20260910",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 9,
      "reference_playing_time": 4.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 10.0,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 13.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 37.0,
            "Pitches": 162.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 2.0,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 0.8,
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            "SO": 2.6,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 7.4,
            "Pitches": 32.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.0,
            "WHIP": 0.8,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.0,
            "H_per_IP": 0.4,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.4,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.3,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 9,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 16.0,
            "ER": 0.0,
            "R": 0.0,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 10.0,
            "SO": 23.0,
            "HR": 0.0,
            "BF": 61.0,
            "Pitches": 266.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 1.2,
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            "BB": 1.1111,
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          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 0.875,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.0,
            "H_per_IP": 0.25,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.625,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.4375,
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          }
        },
        "season": {
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          },
          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
            "ERA": 0.0,
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            "H_per_IP": 0.25,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.625,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.4375,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.0
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 3.2,
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        "predicted_BB": 1.487,
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        "predicted_ERA": 2.7504,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1421
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.6067,
      "form_weight": 0.3933,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 3.229,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.3924,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 3.2,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.091,
          "final": 1.0358,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 2.591,
          "final": 3.4459,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.487,
          "final": 1.7982,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 3.934,
          "final": 3.974,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.319,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 2.7504,
          "final": 2.7504,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1421,
          "final": 1.1421,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 16.0,
        "ER": 0,
        "H": 4,
        "BB": 10,
        "SO": 23,
        "HR": 0,
        "ERA": 0.0,
        "WHIP": 0.875,
        "K9": 12.9375,
        "HR9": 0.0,
        "games_pitched": 9,
        "quality_starts": 0,
        "dominant_form": true,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-06T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.7334106527906407,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 4.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 3.229,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.3924,
          "prior_weight": 0.6076
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "696146",
      "player_name": "Hagen Smith",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "CHW",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
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          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
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          {
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "CHW",
        "games": 145,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 70,
        "win_pct": 0.5172,
        "runs_scored": 685.0,
        "runs_allowed": 644.0,
        "run_differential": 41.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2828,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.7241,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4414,
        "offense_index": 1.0504,
        "defense_index": 1.0127,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.4,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1,
          "run_differential": -7.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0208
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "PIT",
        "games": 146,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 73,
        "win_pct": 0.5,
        "runs_scored": 707.0,
        "runs_allowed": 673.0,
        "run_differential": 34.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.2329,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.8425,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6096,
        "offense_index": 1.0767,
        "defense_index": 0.9757,
        "current_streak": "W3",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.8,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.9,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 3.6,
          "run_differential": 13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.1335
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1543,
        "offense_edge": 0.0504,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0767,
        "defense_strength": 0.0127,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0243,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.5
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9911,
        "run_prevention": 1.0187,
        "strikeout": 0.9892
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "696146",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "696146",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 21.0,
            "k_percent": 37.1,
            "bb_percent": 16.1,
            "woba": 0.209,
            "xwoba": 0.264,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 3.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 34.5,
            "avg_best_speed": 78.8272,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.145,
            "whiff_percent": 35.3,
            "swing_percent": 43.0
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5981,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9191,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 1.1271,
            "command_and_miss": 1.1407,
            "regression_edge": -1.5714,
            "xwoba_edge": 1.3429,
            "barrel_edge": 0.8222,
            "hard_hit_edge": 0.4857,
            "whiff_edge": 1.4714,
            "bb_edge": -1.725,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": false,
            "pitcher_id": "696146",
            "reason": "pitcher_movement_profile_has_no_pitches"
          },
          "quality_score": 0.3468,
          "sample_weight": 0.45,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9705,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0653,
          "walk_factor": 1.0621,
          "homer_factor": 0.9435,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.055,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "696146",
            "espn_id": 5023126,
            "player_name": "Hagen Smith",
            "team": "CHW",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 187,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 187,
              "gp_value": 10.0,
              "gp_rank": 528,
              "gs_value": 0.0,
              "gs_rank": 364,
              "qs_value": 0.0,
              "qs_rank": 210,
              "era_value": 0.5625,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 3.0,
              "w_rank": 243,
              "l_value": 1.0,
              "l_rank": 427,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 249,
              "hld_value": 1.0,
              "hld_rank": 271,
              "ip_value": 16.0,
              "ip_rank": 556,
              "h_value": 5.0,
              "h_rank": 720,
              "er_value": 1.0,
              "er_rank": 781,
              "hr_value": 1.0,
              "hr_rank": 613,
              "bb_value": 10.0,
              "bb_rank": 483,
              "k_value": 23.0,
              "k_rank": 460,
              "k_per_9_value": 12.9375,
              "k_per_9_rank": 22,
              "whip_value": 0.9375,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 0.97,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9867,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9867,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 1.0279,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9746,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0294,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 4.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 86,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "PARTIAL_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Only 9 prior appearances available",
      "detail": "The requested last-10 window is incomplete, so recent-form averages have a smaller and less stable sample."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -8 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260910_PIT@CHW.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260910

20260910_TB@ATL

away

Nick Martinez

True

6.0

6.1

-2

5/2

0/0

5/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.0375,
      "WHIP": 1.1,
      "IP": 160.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.926,
      "recent_avg_IP": 6.2,
      "last_start_IP": 6.1,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1478,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0126,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9171,
      "walk_factor": 0.89,
      "homer_factor": 0.9739,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 14.8,
      "bb_percent": 3.7,
      "woba": 0.294,
      "xwoba": 0.316,
      "barrel_percent": 6.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 33.2,
      "whiff_percent": 17.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 20,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "607259",
      "report_date": "20260910",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 6.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 31.0,
            "ER": 16.0,
            "R": 16.0,
            "H": 30.0,
            "BB": 4.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 124.0,
            "Pitches": 440.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 6.1,
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            "R": 3.2,
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            "Pitches": 88.0
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6452,
            "WHIP": 1.0968,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.51613,
            "H_per_IP": 0.96774,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.12903,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.70968,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.12903
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
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          },
          "per_game": {
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            "Pitches": 82.8
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.05,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41667,
            "H_per_IP": 0.95,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.1,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.56667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
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            "Pitches": 2240.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.59375,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.11875
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_BB": 0.992,
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        "predicted_ERA": 4.091,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.1222
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
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      "applied_metrics": {
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          "form": 6.0,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 2.785,
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
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          "form": 5.884,
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        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.091,
          "final": 4.091,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.1222,
          "final": 1.1222,
          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "ER": 25,
        "H": 57,
        "BB": 6,
        "SO": 34,
        "HR": 9,
        "ERA": 3.7499999999999996,
        "WHIP": 1.0499999999999998,
        "K9": 5.1,
        "HR9": 1.3499999999999999,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 5,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-04T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.9185190722153425,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 2.0,
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          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 2,
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          "predicted_BB": 0,
          "predicted_SO": 5,
          "predicted_HR": 0
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "607259",
      "player_name": "Nick Martinez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TB",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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              "percent_delta": null,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
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              "delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
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            {
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          ],
          "summary": {
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          {
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          {
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          {
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
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        "win_pct": 0.6,
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        "runs_allowed": 603.0,
        "run_differential": 58.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.4,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5586,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.1586,
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        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": 5.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      },
      "opponent": {
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        "games": 146,
        "wins": 85,
        "losses": 61,
        "win_pct": 0.5822,
        "runs_scored": 668.0,
        "runs_allowed": 560.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": 0.7397,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5753,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 3.8356,
        "offense_index": 1.0166,
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          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": -8.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": 0.0129,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0166,
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        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.1733,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.2
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0035,
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "607259",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "607259",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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            "xwoba": 0.316,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.1,
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            "avg_best_speed": 75.8751,
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          "league_medians": {
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            "woba": 0.317,
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": 0.1286,
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            "xwoba_edge": -0.1429,
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            "hard_hit_edge": 0.6714,
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          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "607259",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 86,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 86,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 86.92210877528385,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 86,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 86.9221,
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            "components": {
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            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
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            "player_name": "Nick Martinez",
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            "espn_rank": 20,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
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              "k_per_9_rank": 132,
              "whip_value": 1.1,
              "whip_rank": 15.0,
              "war_value": 3.52,
              "war_rank": 18.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0126,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0126,
            "adjusted": 6
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.89,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9739,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9171,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 6.0,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 23,
      "Pitches": 99,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260910_TB@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260910

20260910_TB@ATL

home

Martín Pérez

True

5.2

7.0

-2

4/4

1/2

4/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "WHIP": 1.267379679144385,
      "IP": 124.2,
      "games_started": null,
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      "role_avg_IP": 5.014,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.867,
      "last_start_IP": 3.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.3096,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0263,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9594,
      "walk_factor": 1.024,
      "homer_factor": 0.9906,
      "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
      "k_percent": 18.0,
      "bb_percent": 10.4,
      "woba": 0.302,
      "xwoba": 0.334,
      "barrel_percent": 5.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.1,
      "whiff_percent": 21.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 57,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 124.2,
      "season_ERA": 3.249,
      "season_WHIP": 1.267,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
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      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "527048",
      "report_date": "20260910",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
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          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.1,
            "ER": 10.0,
            "R": 13.0,
            "H": 29.0,
            "BB": 14.0,
            "SO": 16.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 114.0,
            "Pitches": 428.0
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          "per_game": {
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            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 5.8,
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            "SO": 3.2,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 22.8,
            "Pitches": 85.6
          },
          "rates": {
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            "WHIP": 1.7671,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41096,
            "H_per_IP": 1.19178,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.57534,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.65753,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08219
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        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 47.2,
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            "R": 21.0,
            "H": 45.0,
            "BB": 24.0,
            "SO": 33.0,
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            "BF": 208.0,
            "Pitches": 780.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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          },
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        },
        "season": {
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            "Pitches": 1985.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "WHIP": 1.2674,
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            "H_per_IP": 0.83422,
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            "SO_per_IP": 0.75401,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.10428
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      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_BB": 2.466,
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
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        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
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        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
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      "pitching": {
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        "BB": 24,
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        "K9": 6.23076923076923,
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-05T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.8676842820055524,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "stats": {
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "527048",
      "player_name": "Mart\u00edn P\u00e9rez",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "ATL",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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        {
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      "total_change": {
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0029,
        "run_prevention": 0.9869,
        "strikeout": 0.9977
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "527048",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "527048",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 452.0,
            "k_percent": 18.0,
            "bb_percent": 10.4,
            "woba": 0.302,
            "xwoba": 0.334,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 5.4,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.1,
            "avg_best_speed": 76.7045,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.0984,
            "whiff_percent": 21.9,
            "swing_percent": 42.8
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5981,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9191,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1328,
            "command_and_miss": -0.4721,
            "regression_edge": -0.9143,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.6571,
            "barrel_edge": 0.3778,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.0286,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4429,
            "bb_edge": -0.3,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.2622
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "527048",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 66,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 66,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 85.19235523869571,
              "release_spin_rate": 1970.9370569367027,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 66,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 85.19235523869571,
                "release_spin_rate": 1970.9370569367027,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 85.1924,
              "release_spin_rate": 1970.9371,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.2622,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -1.8731,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.3096,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0263,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9594,
          "walk_factor": 1.024,
          "homer_factor": 0.9906,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.032,
          "regression_flag": "negative_pitcher_regression",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "527048",
            "espn_id": 31098,
            "player_name": "Martin Perez",
            "team": "ATL",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 57,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 57,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 285,
              "gs_value": 23.0,
              "gs_rank": 80,
              "qs_value": 4.0,
              "qs_rank": 123,
              "era_value": 3.2486,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 8.0,
              "w_rank": 65,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 31,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 249,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 351,
              "ip_value": 124.2,
              "ip_rank": 87,
              "h_value": 104.0,
              "h_rank": 111,
              "er_value": 45.0,
              "er_rank": 128,
              "hr_value": 13.0,
              "hr_rank": 124,
              "bb_value": 54.0,
              "bb_rank": 28,
              "k_value": 94.0,
              "k_rank": 117,
              "k_per_9_value": 6.7860966,
              "k_per_9_rank": 36,
              "whip_value": 1.2673,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.39,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0263,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0263,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.024,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 0.0,
            "factor": 0.9906,
            "adjusted": 0
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9594,
            "adjusted": 3
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 2,
      "predicted_ER": 2,
      "predicted_BB": 1,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 22,
      "Pitches": 95,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260910_TB@ATL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260910

20260910_TEX@SEA

away

Jacob deGrom

True

5.0

6.0

-1

1/1

1/0

6/12

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.955813953488372,
      "WHIP": 1.1162790697674418,
      "IP": 143.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 27,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.309,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.933,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.3347,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9715,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0943,
      "walk_factor": 0.946,
      "homer_factor": 1.0468,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 29.9,
      "bb_percent": 6.5,
      "woba": 0.283,
      "xwoba": 0.292,
      "barrel_percent": 8.4,
      "hard_hit_percent": 44.9,
      "whiff_percent": 33.6
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 73,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "594798",
      "report_date": "20260910",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 27,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.0,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 24.2,
            "ER": 12.0,
            "R": 12.0,
            "H": 18.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 30.0,
            "HR": 2.0,
            "BF": 96.0,
            "Pitches": 409.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.0,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.4,
            "H": 3.6,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 6.0,
            "HR": 0.4,
            "BF": 19.2,
            "Pitches": 81.8
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.3784,
            "WHIP": 1.0541,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.48649,
            "H_per_IP": 0.72973,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.32432,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.21622,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.08108
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 47.2,
            "ER": 26.0,
            "R": 26.0,
            "H": 47.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 59.0,
            "HR": 3.0,
            "BF": 202.0,
            "Pitches": 855.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.6,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 4.7,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 5.9,
            "HR": 0.3,
            "BF": 20.2,
            "Pitches": 85.5
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.9091,
            "WHIP": 1.3636,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.54545,
            "H_per_IP": 0.98601,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.37762,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.23776,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.06294
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 27,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 143.1,
            "ER": 63.0,
            "R": 63.0,
            "H": 122.0,
            "BB": 38.0,
            "SO": 174.0,
            "HR": 19.0,
            "BF": 582.0,
            "Pitches": 2380.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.3333,
            "R": 2.3333,
            "H": 4.5185,
            "BB": 1.4074,
            "SO": 6.4444,
            "HR": 0.7037,
            "BF": 21.5556,
            "Pitches": 88.1481
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9558,
            "WHIP": 1.1163,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43953,
            "H_per_IP": 0.85116,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.26512,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.21395,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13256
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.472,
        "predicted_H": 4.283,
        "predicted_BB": 1.673,
        "predicted_SO": 5.845,
        "predicted_HR": 0.469,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.487,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2014
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.416,
      "form_weight": 0.584,
      "form_reliability": 0.8438,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 27.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8438,
        "prior_weight": 0.1562
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.0,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 2.472,
          "final": 1.8597,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 4.283,
          "final": 2.9173,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 1.673,
          "final": 1.393,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 4.0,
          "form": 5.845,
          "final": 5.0775,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.469,
          "final": 0.6899,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.487,
          "final": 4.487,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2014,
          "final": 1.2014,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 47.2,
        "ER": 26,
        "H": 47,
        "BB": 18,
        "SO": 59,
        "HR": 3,
        "ERA": 4.909090909090909,
        "WHIP": 1.3636363636363638,
        "K9": 11.13986013986014,
        "HR9": 0.5664335664335665,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 3,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-05T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0567577085789788,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 1.0,
          "predicted_BB": 1.0,
          "predicted_SO": 4.0,
          "predicted_HR": 1.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 27.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8438,
          "prior_weight": 0.1562
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.0,
          "predicted_ER": 1,
          "predicted_H": 1,
          "predicted_BB": 1,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 1
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "594798",
      "player_name": "Jacob deGrom",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "TEX",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 4.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 2.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.5,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 1.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 1.0,
            "predicted_HR": 1.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.0,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
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            "better_metrics": 0,
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            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
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            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
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            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
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            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 2.0,
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            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
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          "biggest_boost": {
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            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": null,
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "better"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 146,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.4932,
        "runs_scored": 607.0,
        "runs_allowed": 647.0,
        "run_differential": -40.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.274,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1575,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4315,
        "offense_index": 0.9239,
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        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
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          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": 14.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 146,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.4658,
        "runs_scored": 577.0,
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        "run_differential": -75.0,
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        "avg_runs_scored": 3.9521,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7,
          "run_differential": -10.0
        },
        "available": true,
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      },
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0102,
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      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "594798",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "594798",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
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          "league_medians": {
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
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          "components": {
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            "hard_hit_edge": -1.0,
            "whiff_edge": 1.2286,
            "bb_edge": 0.675,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.1772
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "594798",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 70,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 70,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 93.0397745860885,
              "release_spin_rate": 2438.3276886434514,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 70,
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                "release_speed": 93.0397745860885,
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                "spin_axis": null,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 93.0398,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
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              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.1772,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": 1.2659,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.3347,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9715,
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          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.009,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "594798",
            "espn_id": 32796,
            "player_name": "Jacob deGrom",
            "team": "TEX",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 73,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 73,
              "gp_value": 27.0,
              "gp_rank": 285,
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              "qs_rank": 45,
              "era_value": 3.9558,
              "era_rank": null,
              "w_value": 10.0,
              "w_rank": 29,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 31,
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              "h_value": 122.0,
              "h_rank": 71,
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              "er_rank": 56,
              "hr_value": 19.0,
              "hr_rank": 48,
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              "bb_rank": 102,
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              "k_rank": 15,
              "k_per_9_value": 10.925581,
              "k_per_9_rank": 7,
              "whip_value": 1.1162,
              "whip_rank": null,
              "war_value": 2.0,
              "war_rank": null
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.9715,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9715,
            "adjusted": 4
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          "predicted_BB": {
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0468,
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.0,
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      "predicted_R": 1,
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      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 18,
      "Pitches": 82,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260910_TEX@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260910

20260910_TEX@SEA

home

Logan Gilbert

True

5.2

7.0

4/3

3/2

6/11

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
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      "games_started": null,
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      "role_avg_IP": 5.893,
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      "last_start_IP": 4.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "sample_weight": 1.0,
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      "strikeout_factor": 1.0531,
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      "k_percent": 26.6,
      "bb_percent": 6.4,
      "woba": 0.297,
      "xwoba": 0.299,
      "barrel_percent": 10.3,
      "hard_hit_percent": 41.6,
      "whiff_percent": 29.7
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 40,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": {
      "applied": true,
      "floor_IP": 5.2,
      "season_IP": 165.0,
      "season_ERA": 3.709,
      "season_WHIP": 1.067,
      "reason": "credible starter season workload and run-prevention profile"
    },
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
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      "effective_weights": {
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        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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        "data_weight": 0.8485,
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      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "669302",
      "report_date": "20260910",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 28,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
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          "totals": {
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            "ER": 15.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 27.0,
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            "SO": 31.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
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            "Pitches": 483.0
          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 3.0,
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            "H": 5.4,
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            "HR": 1.4,
            "BF": 22.4,
            "Pitches": 96.6
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 5.2597,
            "WHIP": 1.4416,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.58442,
            "H_per_IP": 1.05195,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.38961,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.20779,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.27273
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        },
        "last_10": {
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            "IP": 57.2,
            "ER": 30.0,
            "R": 30.0,
            "H": 54.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 62.0,
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            "Pitches": 958.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
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            "BB": 2.0,
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          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.6821,
            "WHIP": 1.2832,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.52023,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93642,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.34682,
            "SO_per_IP": 1.07514,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.20809
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        },
        "season": {
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            "H": 134.0,
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            "SO": 176.0,
            "HR": 26.0,
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          },
          "per_game": {
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            "ER": 2.4286,
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            "WHIP": 1.0667,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.41212,
            "H_per_IP": 0.81212,
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            "SO_per_IP": 1.06667,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.15758
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
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        "predicted_H": 5.277,
        "predicted_BB": 1.921,
        "predicted_SO": 6.037,
        "predicted_HR": 1.175,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.714,
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    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
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      "form_shrinkage": {
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        "data_weight": 0.8485,
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          "form": 5.1,
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        "predicted_ER": {
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          "form": 2.864,
          "final": 2.9203,
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        },
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          "final": 5.6077,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 1.175,
          "final": 0.6885,
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "form": 4.714,
          "final": 4.714,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "form": 1.3162,
          "final": 1.3162,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
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        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
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        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
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        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "SO": 62,
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        "WHIP": 1.2832369942196533,
        "K9": 9.676300578034683,
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
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      "fielding": {
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        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-04T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0292091011170768,
    "stat_evolution": [
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        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 4.0,
          "predicted_BB": 3.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 28.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8485,
          "prior_weight": 0.1515
        }
      },
      {
        "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
        "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.2,
          "predicted_ER": 3,
          "predicted_H": 4,
          "predicted_BB": 3,
          "predicted_SO": 6,
          "predicted_HR": 0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "669302",
      "player_name": "Logan Gilbert",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SEA",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.6667,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "pitcher_quality_guardrail",
          "description": "Elite/strong starter guardrail capped a noisy simulation draw using season workload, ERA/WHIP, and weighted recent form.",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 1.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.2,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.6667,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": -0.4667,
              "percent_delta": -0.0824,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 3,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 3.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 4.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.2,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 6.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 4.0,
              "after": 4.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.2,
              "after": 5.2,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 4.0,
            "after": 4.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 1.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.2,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.6667,
            "after": 5.2,
            "delta": -0.4667,
            "percent_delta": -0.0824,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SEA",
        "games": 146,
        "wins": 68,
        "losses": 78,
        "win_pct": 0.4658,
        "runs_scored": 577.0,
        "runs_allowed": 652.0,
        "run_differential": -75.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5137,
        "avg_runs_scored": 3.9521,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4658,
        "offense_index": 0.8783,
        "defense_index": 1.0076,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7,
          "run_differential": -10.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1269
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "TEX",
        "games": 146,
        "wins": 72,
        "losses": 74,
        "win_pct": 0.4932,
        "runs_scored": 607.0,
        "runs_allowed": 647.0,
        "run_differential": -40.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.274,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.1575,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4315,
        "offense_index": 0.9239,
        "defense_index": 1.0154,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 6.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.6,
          "run_differential": 14.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0043
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.1226,
        "offense_edge": -0.1217,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0761,
        "defense_strength": 0.0076,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": -0.0154,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.2
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9984,
        "run_prevention": 0.9932,
        "strikeout": 1.0024
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669302",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669302",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 590.0,
            "k_percent": 26.6,
            "bb_percent": 6.4,
            "woba": 0.297,
            "xwoba": 0.299,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 37.2,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.3,
            "hard_hit_percent": 41.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 79.1322,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.4467,
            "whiff_percent": 29.7,
            "swing_percent": 50.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 117.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.2,
            "woba": 0.317,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.1,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.5981,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.9191,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.0128,
            "command_and_miss": 0.6707,
            "regression_edge": -0.0571,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.3429,
            "barrel_edge": -0.7111,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5286,
            "whiff_edge": 0.6714,
            "bb_edge": 0.7,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0181
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669302",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 96,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 96,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.55212588420072,
              "release_spin_rate": 1933.4323936506946,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 96,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.55212588420072,
                "release_spin_rate": 1933.4323936506946,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.5521,
              "release_spin_rate": 1933.4324,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0181,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.1292,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.1601,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9864,
          "strikeout_factor": 1.0531,
          "walk_factor": 0.944,
          "homer_factor": 1.0677,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.002,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": true,
            "player_id": "669302",
            "espn_id": 41221,
            "player_name": "Logan Gilbert",
            "team": "SEA",
            "role": "pitcher",
            "espn_rank": 40,
            "espn_total_ranked": 859,
            "metrics": {
              "espn_rank": 40,
              "gp_value": 28.0,
              "gp_rank": 261,
              "gs_value": 28.0,
              "gs_rank": 24,
              "qs_value": 12.0,
              "qs_rank": 33,
              "era_value": 3.709,
              "era_rank": 25.0,
              "w_value": 11.0,
              "w_rank": 22,
              "l_value": 9.0,
              "l_rank": 31,
              "sv_value": 0.0,
              "sv_rank": 249,
              "hld_value": 0.0,
              "hld_rank": 351,
              "ip_value": 165.0,
              "ip_rank": 16,
              "h_value": 134.0,
              "h_rank": 50,
              "er_value": 68.0,
              "er_rank": 39,
              "hr_value": 26.0,
              "hr_rank": 12,
              "bb_value": 42.0,
              "bb_rank": 72,
              "k_value": 176.0,
              "k_rank": 13,
              "k_per_9_value": 9.599999,
              "k_per_9_rank": 21,
              "whip_value": 1.0666,
              "whip_rank": 11.0,
              "war_value": 2.85,
              "war_rank": 26.0
            },
            "source": "espn_statistics_byathlete"
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9864,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9864,
            "adjusted": 5
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.944,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0677,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0531,
            "adjusted": 6
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 4,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 3,
      "predicted_SO": 6,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 107,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +0."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260910_TEX@SEA.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}