MLB Prediction System

KPI Player Effects

How each KPI adds or removes a hit, a strikeout, a walk or a home run, per player, against the arm he actually faces

Slate 20261007Games 4Schema kpi_player_effects_v2Built 2026-10-08 09:14Z

What this document measures

Every counting stat below has a KPI on both sides of the matchup, measured on the same denominator: a plate appearance. That is what lets the hitter's reading and the starter's reading be combined instead of listed side by side. The combination is the standard Log5 odds ratio, which is exactly additive in log odds, so the hitter's push and the pitcher's push separate cleanly and the remainder is reported rather than absorbed.

Hits use a derived KPI. Hit rate is not in config/kpi_registry.json: registering it would move the registry hash recorded in the model manifest and fail the live layer closed until a retrain. It is computed with the same strict as-of cutoff and the same shrinkage, stored in its own namespace, and never read by the runtime.

These per-player numbers are measured, not published. The live KPI layer moves team runs and the win probability. The hitter lines in the artifact were then scaled by one club-wide ratio, identical for the leadoff hitter and the ninth bat. The per-hitter columns here are what that single ratio discards.

The whole staff, not only the starter. A hitter takes roughly four in ten of his plate appearances against relievers. Each club's bullpen here is the pregame bullpen: the seven busiest healthy relievers of the last 30 days, the same arms the KPI forecast weighted and the simulation pitched, each sharing the relief work by the batters faced the forecast gave him. The bullpen's workload tonight is the club's real mean staff batters faced minus the starter's projection. The published staff alone holds only the relievers one simulation draw used, so it is shown beside the bullpen for comparison, not used.

Reading a delta. Own skill is measured against the league. The opponent effect is measured against the hitter's own rate, which is the only one that may adjust a published line, because the published line already carries his own skill. Adding both to a published line would count the hitter twice.

Coverage. 72 hitter-versus-starter pairings; 58 have both sides above their sample floor on hits and 63 carry a non-zero hit adjustment. A side below its floor falls back to the league rate and is marked n<floor, which is a stated absence of evidence rather than a measured zero. All four outcome metrics have value documents. Handedness source: model bundle pitcher_hands.json.

Largest per-player movements on the slate

Hitter	Club	Metric	Starter faced (+ bullpen)	Published	KPI adjusted, whole staff	Δ	Hitter band	Pitcher band	Game
Austin Riley	ATL	Strikeouts	Tyler Glasnow	1.455	1.833	+0.379	Poor	Very good	20261007_LAD@ATL
Michael Harris II	ATL	Strikeouts	Tyler Glasnow	1.099	1.453	+0.353	Average	Very good	20261007_LAD@ATL
Matt Olson	ATL	Strikeouts	Tyler Glasnow	1.184	1.533	+0.349	Average	Very good	20261007_LAD@ATL
Sean Murphy	ATL	Strikeouts	Tyler Glasnow	1.135	1.482	+0.347	averagen<floor	Very good	20261007_LAD@ATL
Ronald Acuña Jr.	ATL	Strikeouts	Tyler Glasnow	1.124	1.468	+0.344	Average	Very good	20261007_LAD@ATL
Mike Yastrzemski	ATL	Strikeouts	Tyler Glasnow	1.138	1.481	+0.342	Average	Very good	20261007_LAD@ATL
Drake Baldwin	ATL	Strikeouts	Tyler Glasnow	1.070	1.403	+0.333	Average	Very good	20261007_LAD@ATL
Ozzie Albies	ATL	Strikeouts	Tyler Glasnow	0.781	1.047	+0.266	Good	Very good	20261007_LAD@ATL
Mauricio Dubón	ATL	Strikeouts	Tyler Glasnow	0.628	0.853	+0.225	Very good	Very good	20261007_LAD@ATL
Ben Rice	NYY	Walks	Nick Martinez	0.562	0.384	-0.178	Very good	Very good	20261007_TB@NYY
Kyle Teel	CHW	Strikeouts	Daniel Espino	1.496	1.652	+0.156	averagen<floor	averagen<floor	20261007_CLE@CHW
Munetaka Murakami	CHW	Strikeouts	Daniel Espino	1.652	1.792	+0.140	Poor	averagen<floor	20261007_CLE@CHW
Trent Grisham	NYY	Walks	Nick Martinez	0.405	0.276	-0.129	Very good	Very good	20261007_TB@NYY
Colson Montgomery	CHW	Strikeouts	Daniel Espino	1.404	1.522	+0.119	Poor	averagen<floor	20261007_CLE@CHW
Spencer Jones	NYY	Strikeouts	Nick Martinez	1.244	1.135	-0.110	Poor	Poor	20261007_TB@NYY
Chase Meidroth	CHW	Strikeouts	Daniel Espino	1.042	1.151	+0.109	Average	averagen<floor	20261007_CLE@CHW
Michael Harris II	ATL	Hits	Tyler Glasnow	1.014	0.910	-0.104	Very good	Very good	20261007_LAD@ATL
Ronald Acuña Jr.	ATL	Hits	Tyler Glasnow	0.952	0.851	-0.102	Average	Very good	20261007_LAD@ATL
Mauricio Dubón	ATL	Hits	Tyler Glasnow	0.950	0.850	-0.100	Very good	Very good	20261007_LAD@ATL
Randal Grichuk	CHW	Strikeouts	Daniel Espino	0.955	1.054	+0.100	Average	averagen<floor	20261007_CLE@CHW

Per game

Club Player

20261007_CLE@CHW — team layer applied; runs moved away 0.0005 / home 0.4454

Daniel Espino (RHP, 17.2 BF)
H 0.2169 averagen<floor · SO 0.2212 averagen<floor · BB 0.0889 averagen<floor · HR 0.0304 averagen<floor

Sean Newcomb (LHP, 13.9 BF)
H 0.2048 Good · SO 0.2265 Average · BB 0.0912 Average · HR 0.0215 Very good

Warnings: away published staff projects 29.8338 batters faced, outside the real p10-p90 band of 30-45; the exposure here uses the club's real 37.25 per game instead; home starter is projected 13.8787 batters faced, outside the real p10-p90 band of 17-27; home published staff projects 28.0782 batters faced, outside the real p10-p90 band of 30-45; the exposure here uses the club's real 35.46 per game instead

CLE hitters vs Sean Newcomb and the bullpen

The pipeline applied one club-wide ×1.0001 to every CLE hitter line. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Steven Kwan	CF	Sean Newcomb + bullpen	4.41	0.955 → 0.929	-0.025	0.477 → 0.499	+0.022	0.532 → 0.544	+0.012	0.053 → 0.045	-0.008

José Ramírez	3B	Sean Newcomb + bullpen	4.51	0.870 → 0.846	-0.024	0.627 → 0.655	+0.028	0.545 → 0.558	+0.013	0.115 → 0.098	-0.017

Chase DeLauter	RF	Sean Newcomb + bullpen	4.24	0.964 → 0.938	-0.025	0.709 → 0.739	+0.030	0.418 → 0.428	+0.010	0.125 → 0.107	-0.018

Jo Adell	DH	Sean Newcomb + bullpen	4.09	0.871 → 0.847	-0.024	1.044 → 1.084	+0.040	0.281 → 0.288	+0.007	0.149 → 0.127	-0.021

Nathaniel Lowe	1B	Sean Newcomb + bullpen	3.87	0.832 → 0.809	-0.022	0.992 → 1.030	+0.038	0.332 → 0.340	+0.008	0.138 → 0.118	-0.020

Angel Martínez	LF	Sean Newcomb + bullpen	3.88	0.869 → 0.846	-0.023	0.941 → 0.978	+0.037	0.205 → 0.210	+0.005	0.164 → 0.140	-0.024

Travis Bazzana	2B	Sean Newcomb + bullpen	3.84	0.788 → 0.767	-0.021	0.873 → 0.908	+0.035	0.388 → 0.397	+0.009	0.113 → 0.097	-0.016

Patrick Bailey	C	Sean Newcomb + bullpen	3.69	0.735 → 0.715	-0.020	1.008 → 1.045	+0.037	0.336 → 0.344	+0.008	0.119 → 0.102	-0.017

Brayan Rocchio	SS	Sean Newcomb + bullpen	3.47	0.745 → 0.725	-0.020	0.552 → 0.576	+0.024	0.275 → 0.282	+0.007	0.093 → 0.079	-0.013

CLE starter against the CHW lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Daniel Espino	Starter	CHW	17.17	3.623 → 3.620	-0.003	3.940 → 4.083	+0.143	1.731 → 1.913	+0.181	0.637 → 0.720	+0.083

CLE bullpen: the full relief corps (7 arms)

Exposure. Starter 17.2 batters faced, bullpen 20.1 (53.9% of the game), from the club's real 37.2 staff batters faced per game over 20 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 42.4% across 3 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Tim Herrin	Middle Reliever	pregame bullpen, published staff	35	9	19.9%	4.00
Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	pregame bullpen, published staff	35	9	18.2%	3.65
Cade Smith	Reliever	pregame bullpen	40	11	17.6%	3.53
Hunter Gaddis	Reliever	pregame bullpen	47	12	17.1%	3.44
Shawn Armstrong	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	pregame bullpen, published staff	12	4	16.4%	3.29
Joey Cantillo	Reliever	pregame bullpen	53	3	6.9%	1.39
Matt Festa	Reliever	pregame bullpen	26	5	3.9%	0.79

CLE relievers against the CHW lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Tim Herrin	Middle Reliever	CHW (20% of relief)	4.00	0.868 → 0.867	-0.001	0.972 → 1.007	+0.035	0.491 → 0.541	+0.050	0.070 → 0.079	+0.009

Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	CHW (18% of relief)	3.65	0.525 → 0.524	-0.001	1.568 → 1.617	+0.049	0.625 → 0.688	+0.062	0.046 → 0.052	+0.006

Cade Smith	Reliever	CHW (18% of relief)	3.53	0.674 → 0.673	-0.001	1.170 → 1.207	+0.036	0.274 → 0.303	+0.029	0.090 → 0.102	+0.012

Hunter Gaddis	Reliever	CHW (17% of relief)	3.44	0.736 → 0.735	-0.001	0.763 → 0.791	+0.028	0.302 → 0.334	+0.032	0.101 → 0.114	+0.013

Shawn Armstrong	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	CHW (16% of relief)	3.29	0.684 → 0.683	-0.001	0.881 → 0.913	+0.032	0.472 → 0.521	+0.049	0.066 → 0.075	+0.009

Joey Cantillo	Reliever	CHW (7% of relief)	1.39	0.293 → 0.293	0	0.341 → 0.353	+0.012	0.156 → 0.172	+0.016	0.037 → 0.042	+0.005

Matt Festa	Reliever	CHW (4% of relief)	0.79	0.174 → 0.174	0	0.183 → 0.189	+0.007	0.064 → 0.070	+0.007	0.021 → 0.024	+0.003

CHW hitters vs Daniel Espino and the bullpen

The pipeline applied one club-wide ×1.1114 to every CHW hitter line. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Sam Antonacci	DH	Daniel Espino + bullpen	4.27	0.974 → 0.936	-0.038	0.751 → 0.838	+0.086	0.411 → 0.442	+0.031	0.091 → 0.086	-0.005

Miguel Vargas	3B	Daniel Espino + bullpen	4.35	0.868 → 0.834	-0.035	0.881 → 0.978	+0.097	0.636 → 0.681	+0.045	0.187 → 0.176	-0.011

Munetaka Murakami	1B	Daniel Espino + bullpen	4.52	0.811 → 0.778	-0.033	1.652 → 1.792	+0.140	0.753 → 0.805	+0.052	0.245 → 0.231	-0.014

Kyle Teel	C	Daniel Espino + bullpen	4.07	0.833 → 0.800	-0.033	1.496 → 1.652	+0.156	0.488 → 0.525	+0.036	0.136 → 0.128	-0.008

Chase Meidroth	2B	Daniel Espino + bullpen	4.04	0.936 → 0.899	-0.036	1.042 → 1.151	+0.109	0.418 → 0.449	+0.031	0.119 → 0.112	-0.007

Tristan Peters	CF	Daniel Espino + bullpen	3.78	0.863 → 0.829	-0.034	0.822 → 0.912	+0.090	0.354 → 0.380	+0.027	0.111 → 0.104	-0.006

Braden Montgomery	RF	Daniel Espino + bullpen	3.87	0.799 → 0.767	-0.032	0.902 → 0.999	+0.097	0.444 → 0.477	+0.033	0.091 → 0.086	-0.005

Randal Grichuk	LF	Daniel Espino + bullpen	3.56	0.868 → 0.834	-0.034	0.955 → 1.054	+0.100	0.231 → 0.249	+0.018	0.168 → 0.159	-0.010

Colson Montgomery	SS	Daniel Espino + bullpen	3.58	0.697 → 0.669	-0.028	1.404 → 1.522	+0.119	0.366 → 0.394	+0.028	0.174 → 0.164	-0.010

CHW starter against the CLE lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Sean Newcomb	Starter	CLE	13.88	2.562 → 2.608	+0.046	3.281 → 2.775	-0.506	1.294 → 1.289	-0.004	0.306 → 0.289	-0.017

CHW bullpen: the full relief corps (7 arms)

Exposure. Starter 13.9 batters faced, bullpen 21.6 (60.9% of the game), from the club's real 35.5 staff batters faced per game over 2 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 50.6% across 3 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Grant Taylor	Reliever	pregame bullpen	0	0	20.1%	4.35
Hagen Smith	Long Reliever	pregame bullpen, published staff	40	7	19.4%	4.18
Anthony Kay	Reliever	pregame bullpen	9	2	16.1%	3.48
Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	pregame bullpen, published staff	0	0	15.8%	3.41
Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	pregame bullpen, published staff	16	5	14.5%	3.14
Erick Fedde	Reliever	pregame bullpen	33	2	11.6%	2.50
David Sandlin	Reliever	pregame bullpen	5	1	2.4%	0.52

CHW relievers against the CLE lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Grant Taylor	Reliever	CLE (20% of relief)	4.35	0.858 → 0.873	+0.015	1.291 → 1.107	-0.184	0.390 → 0.389	-0.001	0.115 → 0.108	-0.006

Hagen Smith	Long Reliever	CLE (19% of relief)	4.18	0.469 → 0.477	+0.008	1.866 → 1.577	-0.290	0.937 → 0.934	-0.003	0.000 → 0.000	0

Anthony Kay	Reliever	CLE (16% of relief)	3.48	0.781 → 0.795	+0.014	0.640 → 0.536	-0.103	0.285 → 0.284	-0.001	0.106 → 0.100	-0.006

Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	CLE (16% of relief)	3.41	0.913 → 0.929	+0.016	1.235 → 1.055	-0.180	0.599 → 0.597	-0.002	0.098 → 0.092	-0.005

Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	CLE (15% of relief)	3.14	1.024 → 1.042	+0.018	0.787 → 0.664	-0.123	0.229 → 0.228	-0.001	0.073 → 0.069	-0.004

Erick Fedde	Reliever	CLE (12% of relief)	2.50	0.563 → 0.573	+0.010	0.425 → 0.356	-0.070	0.216 → 0.215	-0.001	0.087 → 0.082	-0.005

David Sandlin	Reliever	CLE (2% of relief)	0.52	0.112 → 0.114	+0.002	0.121 → 0.102	-0.018	0.043 → 0.043	0	0.017 → 0.016	-0.001

20261007_LAD@ATL — team layer applied; runs moved away 0.0409 / home 0.6826

Tyler Glasnow (RHP, 20.9 BF)
H 0.1869 Very good · SO 0.3143 Very good · BB 0.0876 Average · HR 0.0280 Average

Tyler Mahle (RHP, 20.9 BF)
H 0.2222 Average · SO 0.2229 Average · BB 0.0778 Good · HR 0.0317 Average

LAD hitters vs Tyler Mahle and the bullpen

The pipeline applied one club-wide ×1.0102 to every LAD hitter line. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Mookie Betts	SS	Tyler Mahle + bullpen	4.24	1.057 → 1.056	0	0.524 → 0.531	+0.006	0.408 → 0.373	-0.036	0.158 → 0.159	+0.001

Freddie Freeman	1B	Tyler Mahle + bullpen	4.36	1.060 → 1.060	0	0.729 → 0.738	+0.008	0.448 → 0.409	-0.038	0.139 → 0.140	+0.001

Will Smith	C	Tyler Mahle + bullpen	4.13	0.935 → 0.934	0	0.699 → 0.707	+0.008	0.437 → 0.400	-0.037	0.159 → 0.160	+0.001

Shohei Ohtani	DH	Tyler Mahle + bullpen	4.25	0.896 → 0.896	0	1.012 → 1.023	+0.010	0.487 → 0.446	-0.041	0.181 → 0.182	+0.001

Teoscar Hernández	LF	Tyler Mahle + bullpen	3.95	0.952 → 0.951	0	1.057 → 1.067	+0.011	0.280 → 0.255	-0.024	0.134 → 0.135	+0.001

Max Muncy	3B	Tyler Mahle + bullpen	3.95	0.913 → 0.913	0	0.966 → 0.976	+0.010	0.381 → 0.349	-0.032	0.184 → 0.185	+0.001

Enrique Hernández	2B	Tyler Mahle + bullpen	3.48	0.805 → 0.805	0	0.980 → 0.990	+0.010	0.223 → 0.204	-0.019	0.137 → 0.138	+0.001

Kyle Tucker	RF	Tyler Mahle + bullpen	3.93	0.791 → 0.791	0	0.659 → 0.666	+0.007	0.455 → 0.416	-0.038	0.119 → 0.120	+0.001

Andy Pages	CF	Tyler Mahle + bullpen	3.63	0.840 → 0.839	0	0.731 → 0.739	+0.008	0.337 → 0.308	-0.029	0.136 → 0.137	+0.001

LAD starter against the ATL lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Tyler Glasnow	Starter	ATL	20.94	3.503 → 3.637	+0.134	6.814 → 6.540	-0.275	1.829 → 1.698	-0.131	0.393 → 0.454	+0.061

LAD bullpen: the full relief corps (7 arms)

Exposure. Starter 20.9 batters faced, bullpen 14.6 (41.1% of the game), from the club's real 35.5 staff batters faced per game over 22 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 38.7% across 3 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Kris Bubic	Reliever	pregame bullpen	23	6	18.8%	2.75
Brock Stewart	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	pregame bullpen, published staff	21	7	15.3%	2.23
Roki Sasaki	Middle Reliever	pregame bullpen, published staff	19	4	15.1%	2.20
Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	pregame bullpen, published staff	26	9	14.8%	2.16
Evan Phillips	Reliever	pregame bullpen	26	9	13.6%	1.98
Tanner Scott	Reliever	pregame bullpen	35	9	11.7%	1.70
Edgardo Henriquez	Reliever	pregame bullpen	19	4	10.8%	1.57

LAD relievers against the ATL lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Kris Bubic	Reliever	ATL (19% of relief)	2.75	0.548 → 0.569	+0.021	0.662 → 0.632	-0.029	0.287 → 0.267	-0.020	0.072 → 0.083	+0.011

Brock Stewart	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	ATL (15% of relief)	2.23	0.522 → 0.541	+0.019	0.968 → 0.924	-0.044	0.330 → 0.306	-0.024	0.058 → 0.067	+0.009

Roki Sasaki	Middle Reliever	ATL (15% of relief)	2.20	0.868 → 0.900	+0.032	1.578 → 1.507	-0.071	0.502 → 0.466	-0.036	0.088 → 0.102	+0.014

Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever	ATL (15% of relief)	2.16	0.387 → 0.402	+0.015	1.340 → 1.284	-0.056	0.450 → 0.419	-0.031	0.052 → 0.060	+0.008

Evan Phillips	Reliever	ATL (14% of relief)	1.98	0.429 → 0.445	+0.016	0.438 → 0.418	-0.020	0.176 → 0.163	-0.013	0.060 → 0.069	+0.009

Tanner Scott	Reliever	ATL (12% of relief)	1.70	0.349 → 0.362	+0.013	0.513 → 0.492	-0.021	0.121 → 0.112	-0.009	0.043 → 0.050	+0.007

Edgardo Henriquez	Reliever	ATL (11% of relief)	1.57	0.295 → 0.306	+0.011	0.432 → 0.414	-0.018	0.153 → 0.142	-0.011	0.033 → 0.038	+0.005

ATL hitters vs Tyler Glasnow and the bullpen

The pipeline applied one club-wide ×1.2275 to every ATL hitter line. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Michael Harris II	CF	Tyler Glasnow + bullpen	4.29	1.014 → 0.910	-0.104	1.099 → 1.453	+0.353	0.232 → 0.237	+0.005	0.197 → 0.182	-0.015

Ronald Acuña Jr.	RF	Tyler Glasnow + bullpen	4.32	0.952 → 0.851	-0.102	1.124 → 1.468	+0.344	0.458 → 0.467	+0.009	0.175 → 0.162	-0.013

Matt Olson	1B	Tyler Glasnow + bullpen	4.27	0.865 → 0.773	-0.092	1.184 → 1.533	+0.349	0.446 → 0.454	+0.009	0.232 → 0.215	-0.017

Ozzie Albies	2B	Tyler Glasnow + bullpen	3.98	0.773 → 0.690	-0.083	0.781 → 1.047	+0.266	0.345 → 0.352	+0.007	0.140 → 0.130	-0.011

Drake Baldwin	DH	Tyler Glasnow + bullpen	4.28	0.933 → 0.835	-0.098	1.070 → 1.403	+0.333	0.389 → 0.397	+0.008	0.177 → 0.164	-0.013

Mike Yastrzemski	LF	Tyler Glasnow + bullpen	3.90	0.705 → 0.628	-0.076	1.138 → 1.481	+0.342	0.350 → 0.356	+0.007	0.129 → 0.119	-0.010

Mauricio Dubón	SS	Tyler Glasnow + bullpen	3.83	0.950 → 0.850	-0.100	0.628 → 0.853	+0.225	0.247 → 0.252	+0.005	0.104 → 0.096	-0.008

Austin Riley	3B	Tyler Glasnow + bullpen	3.65	0.685 → 0.611	-0.075	1.455 → 1.833	+0.379	0.317 → 0.323	+0.006	0.126 → 0.116	-0.009

Sean Murphy	C	Tyler Glasnow + bullpen	3.41	0.616 → 0.550	-0.066	1.135 → 1.482	+0.347	0.322 → 0.328	+0.006	0.119 → 0.110	-0.009

ATL starter against the LAD lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Tyler Mahle	Starter	LAD	20.88	4.443 → 4.587	+0.143	4.119 → 3.745	-0.374	1.445 → 1.663	+0.219	0.602 → 0.695	+0.093

ATL bullpen: the full relief corps (7 arms)

Exposure. Starter 20.9 batters faced, bullpen 16.2 (43.6% of the game), from the club's real 37.0 staff batters faced per game over 25 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 37.1% across 2 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
AJ Smith-Shawver	Reliever	pregame bullpen	54	5	20.9%	3.38
Grant Holmes	Long Reliever	pregame bullpen, published staff	30	3	19.7%	3.19
Robert Suarez	Reliever	pregame bullpen	15	4	15.5%	2.51
Victor Mederos	Reliever	pregame bullpen	32	8	13.6%	2.20
Didier Fuentes	Reliever	pregame bullpen	65	11	13.2%	2.14
Dylan Dodd	Middle Reliever	pregame bullpen, published staff	24	6	9.5%	1.53
Dylan Lee	Reliever	pregame bullpen	37	9	7.5%	1.21

ATL relievers against the LAD lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
AJ Smith-Shawver	Reliever	LAD (21% of relief)	3.38	0.740 → 0.763	+0.024	0.675 → 0.612	-0.063	0.337 → 0.386	+0.050	0.118 → 0.136	+0.018

Grant Holmes	Long Reliever	LAD (20% of relief)	3.19	1.515 → 1.564	+0.049	1.085 → 0.982	-0.103	0.966 → 1.109	+0.144	0.379 → 0.437	+0.058

Robert Suarez	Reliever	LAD (16% of relief)	2.51	0.519 → 0.537	+0.017	0.522 → 0.474	-0.048	0.175 → 0.201	+0.027	0.063 → 0.073	+0.010

Victor Mederos	Reliever	LAD (14% of relief)	2.20	0.452 → 0.467	+0.015	0.499 → 0.454	-0.045	0.202 → 0.232	+0.030	0.054 → 0.062	+0.008

Didier Fuentes	Reliever	LAD (13% of relief)	2.14	0.453 → 0.468	+0.015	0.600 → 0.549	-0.051	0.163 → 0.187	+0.025	0.057 → 0.066	+0.009

Dylan Dodd	Middle Reliever	LAD (9% of relief)	1.53	0.707 → 0.731	+0.024	1.112 → 1.016	-0.096	0.213 → 0.245	+0.032	0.148 → 0.171	+0.023

Dylan Lee	Reliever	LAD (8% of relief)	1.21	0.244 → 0.252	+0.008	0.338 → 0.309	-0.029	0.092 → 0.106	+0.014	0.029 → 0.033	+0.004

20261007_MIL@SD — team layer applied; runs moved away -0.1958 / home 0.3883

Robert Gasser (LHP, 15.8 BF)
H 0.2100 Average · SO 0.2227 Average · BB 0.0775 Good · HR 0.0314 Average

Walker Buehler (RHP, 15.5 BF)
H 0.2262 Below average · SO 0.2034 Average · BB 0.0878 Average · HR 0.0324 Below average

Warnings: away starter is projected 15.7744 batters faced, outside the real p10-p90 band of 17-27; away published staff projects 29.3041 batters faced, outside the real p10-p90 band of 30-45; the exposure here uses the club's real 37.17 per game instead; home starter is projected 15.467 batters faced, outside the real p10-p90 band of 17-27

MIL hitters vs Walker Buehler and the bullpen

The pipeline applied one club-wide ×0.951 to every MIL hitter line. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Jackson Chourio	LF	Walker Buehler + bullpen	4.44	1.087 → 1.075	-0.012	1.017 → 1.046	+0.029	0.362 → 0.353	-0.009	0.171 → 0.161	-0.010

Christian Yelich	DH	Walker Buehler + bullpen	4.21	0.855 → 0.846	-0.009	1.029 → 1.057	+0.028	0.421 → 0.411	-0.010	0.114 → 0.107	-0.006

William Contreras	C	Walker Buehler + bullpen	4.23	0.940 → 0.930	-0.010	0.621 → 0.642	+0.021	0.410 → 0.400	-0.010	0.122 → 0.115	-0.007

Brice Turang	2B	Walker Buehler + bullpen	4.19	0.898 → 0.888	-0.010	0.955 → 0.982	+0.027	0.501 → 0.489	-0.011	0.116 → 0.109	-0.006

Jake Bauers	1B	Walker Buehler + bullpen	4.15	0.803 → 0.794	-0.009	1.016 → 1.043	+0.028	0.554 → 0.542	-0.012	0.170 → 0.160	-0.010

Cooper Pratt	SS	Walker Buehler + bullpen	3.78	0.833 → 0.823	-0.009	0.700 → 0.722	+0.022	0.307 → 0.300	-0.007	0.074 → 0.070	-0.004

Sal Frelick	RF	Walker Buehler + bullpen	3.69	0.810 → 0.801	-0.009	0.418 → 0.432	+0.015	0.282 → 0.276	-0.007	0.068 → 0.064	-0.004

Garrett Mitchell	CF	Walker Buehler + bullpen	3.82	0.792 → 0.783	-0.009	1.110 → 1.138	+0.028	0.411 → 0.402	-0.010	0.086 → 0.081	-0.005

Joey Ortiz	3B	Walker Buehler + bullpen	3.62	0.785 → 0.777	-0.009	0.747 → 0.770	+0.023	0.278 → 0.271	-0.007	0.086 → 0.081	-0.005

MIL starter against the SD lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Robert Gasser	Starter	SD	15.77	2.886 → 2.934	+0.048	3.300 → 3.185	-0.116	1.658 → 1.738	+0.081	0.483 → 0.512	+0.029

MIL bullpen: the full relief corps (7 arms)

Exposure. Starter 15.8 batters faced, bullpen 21.4 (57.6% of the game), from the club's real 37.2 staff batters faced per game over 20 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 46.2% across 3 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Aaron Ashby	Setup Man	pregame bullpen, published staff	50	10	29.6%	6.33
Trevor Megill	Closer	pregame bullpen, published staff	40	10	25.2%	5.38
Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	pregame bullpen, published staff	35	10	19.2%	4.11
Abner Uribe	Reliever	pregame bullpen	49	12	10.2%	2.19
Chad Patrick	Reliever	pregame bullpen	36	8	9.4%	2.01
DL Hall	Reliever	pregame bullpen	57	10	3.7%	0.79
JoJo Romero	Reliever	pregame bullpen	43	9	2.7%	0.58

MIL relievers against the SD lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Aaron Ashby	Setup Man	SD (30% of relief)	6.33	0.861 → 0.875	+0.014	1.556 → 1.506	-0.050	0.417 → 0.437	+0.020	0.081 → 0.086	+0.005

Trevor Megill	Closer	SD (25% of relief)	5.38	0.540 → 0.549	+0.009	1.073 → 1.038	-0.035	0.177 → 0.185	+0.009	0.012 → 0.013	+0.001

Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	SD (19% of relief)	4.11	1.007 → 1.023	+0.016	0.794 → 0.765	-0.029	0.397 → 0.416	+0.019	0.057 → 0.060	+0.003

Abner Uribe	Reliever	SD (10% of relief)	2.19	0.441 → 0.449	+0.007	0.555 → 0.536	-0.019	0.181 → 0.189	+0.009	0.054 → 0.057	+0.003

Chad Patrick	Reliever	SD (9% of relief)	2.01	0.400 → 0.406	+0.007	0.429 → 0.414	-0.015	0.209 → 0.219	+0.010	0.056 → 0.059	+0.003

DL Hall	Reliever	SD (4% of relief)	0.79	0.137 → 0.140	+0.002	0.200 → 0.194	-0.007	0.097 → 0.101	+0.004	0.021 → 0.023	+0.001

JoJo Romero	Reliever	SD (3% of relief)	0.58	0.126 → 0.128	+0.002	0.131 → 0.127	-0.005	0.046 → 0.048	+0.002	0.018 → 0.019	+0.001

SD hitters vs Robert Gasser and the bullpen

The pipeline applied one club-wide ×1.0777 to every SD hitter line. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Fernando Tatis Jr.	RF	Robert Gasser + bullpen	4.46	1.027 → 0.979	-0.048	0.828 → 0.901	+0.072	0.452 → 0.431	-0.021	0.156 → 0.141	-0.014

Jackson Merrill	CF	Robert Gasser + bullpen	4.24	0.932 → 0.888	-0.044	1.115 → 1.206	+0.090	0.280 → 0.267	-0.013	0.152 → 0.138	-0.014

Manny Machado	3B	Robert Gasser + bullpen	4.16	0.867 → 0.825	-0.042	0.854 → 0.926	+0.072	0.420 → 0.401	-0.019	0.172 → 0.156	-0.016

Ty France	1B	Robert Gasser + bullpen	4.16	0.977 → 0.932	-0.045	0.906 → 0.982	+0.076	0.297 → 0.283	-0.014	0.153 → 0.139	-0.014

Austin Hays	DH	Robert Gasser + bullpen	3.63	0.807 → 0.768	-0.039	0.949 → 1.028	+0.079	0.234 → 0.223	-0.011	0.110 → 0.100	-0.010

Xander Bogaerts	SS	Robert Gasser + bullpen	3.88	0.817 → 0.777	-0.040	0.693 → 0.754	+0.061	0.412 → 0.393	-0.018	0.096 → 0.087	-0.009

Luis Campusano	C	Robert Gasser + bullpen	3.90	0.775 → 0.738	-0.037	0.803 → 0.870	+0.068	0.348 → 0.332	-0.016	0.117 → 0.106	-0.011

Jake Cronenworth	2B	Robert Gasser + bullpen	3.66	0.712 → 0.677	-0.034	0.883 → 0.956	+0.073	0.307 → 0.293	-0.014	0.080 → 0.073	-0.007

Samad Taylor	LF	Robert Gasser + bullpen	3.54	0.720 → 0.685	-0.034	0.870 → 0.942	+0.072	0.378 → 0.360	-0.018	0.077 → 0.070	-0.007

SD starter against the MIL lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Walker Buehler	Starter	MIL	15.47	3.388 → 3.502	+0.115	3.233 → 3.224	-0.008	1.264 → 1.465	+0.201	0.817 → 0.771	-0.046

SD bullpen: the full relief corps (7 arms)

Exposure. Starter 15.5 batters faced, bullpen 22.3 (59.1% of the game), from the club's real 37.8 staff batters faced per game over 24 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 49.2% across 3 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Adrian Morejon	Closer	pregame bullpen, published staff	51	12	41.7%	9.29
Jason Adam	Setup Man	pregame bullpen, published staff	18	5	25.4%	5.66
Bradgley Rodriguez	Long Reliever	pregame bullpen, published staff	60	12	11.8%	2.62
David Morgan	Reliever	pregame bullpen	37	9	8.9%	1.99
Yuki Matsui	Reliever	pregame bullpen	53	14	6.7%	1.50
Wandy Peralta	Reliever	pregame bullpen	36	6	3.1%	0.69
Joe Musgrove	Reliever	pregame bullpen	6	1	2.5%	0.55

SD relievers against the MIL lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Adrian Morejon	Closer	MIL (42% of relief)	9.29	1.069 → 1.106	+0.037	1.434 → 1.431	-0.003	0.419 → 0.486	+0.067	0.108 → 0.102	-0.006

Jason Adam	Setup Man	MIL (25% of relief)	5.66	0.745 → 0.770	+0.025	0.475 → 0.473	-0.001	0.465 → 0.539	+0.075	0.113 → 0.107	-0.006

Bradgley Rodriguez	Long Reliever	MIL (12% of relief)	2.62	0.941 → 0.974	+0.033	1.524 → 1.520	-0.004	0.450 → 0.522	+0.073	0.052 → 0.049	-0.003

David Morgan	Reliever	MIL (9% of relief)	1.99	0.439 → 0.454	+0.015	0.466 → 0.464	-0.001	0.224 → 0.258	+0.035	0.051 → 0.048	-0.003

Yuki Matsui	Reliever	MIL (7% of relief)	1.50	0.273 → 0.282	+0.010	0.378 → 0.377	-0.001	0.179 → 0.207	+0.027	0.044 → 0.041	-0.003

Wandy Peralta	Reliever	MIL (3% of relief)	0.69	0.160 → 0.165	+0.005	0.116 → 0.116	0	0.053 → 0.062	+0.009	0.018 → 0.017	-0.001

Joe Musgrove	Reliever	MIL (2% of relief)	0.55	0.119 → 0.123	+0.004	0.121 → 0.121	0	0.049 → 0.057	+0.008	0.017 → 0.016	-0.001

20261007_TB@NYY — team layer applied; runs moved away 0.4627 / home 0.1996

Nick Martinez (RHP, 18.0 BF)
H 0.2316 Below average · SO 0.1539 Poor · BB 0.0456 Very good · HR 0.0302 Average

Max Fried (LHP, 21.0 BF)
H 0.1991 Good · SO 0.2303 Average · BB 0.0799 Average · HR 0.0203 Very good

Warnings: away published staff projects 28.5502 batters faced, outside the real p10-p90 band of 30-45; the exposure here uses the club's real 35.01 per game instead

TB hitters vs Max Fried and the bullpen

The pipeline applied one club-wide ×1.1542 to every TB hitter line. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Yandy Díaz	DH	Max Fried + bullpen	4.48	1.054 → 0.996	-0.058	0.735 → 0.773	+0.038	0.426 → 0.394	-0.033	0.163 → 0.126	-0.037

Jonathan Aranda	1B	Max Fried + bullpen	4.27	0.922 → 0.870	-0.052	1.272 → 1.330	+0.058	0.408 → 0.377	-0.031	0.168 → 0.130	-0.039

Junior Caminero	3B	Max Fried + bullpen	4.13	0.951 → 0.897	-0.053	0.803 → 0.843	+0.040	0.435 → 0.403	-0.032	0.231 → 0.179	-0.052

Victor Mesa Jr.	LF	Max Fried + bullpen	3.95	0.822 → 0.775	-0.047	0.972 → 1.019	+0.047	0.267 → 0.246	-0.020	0.189 → 0.146	-0.043

Ryan Vilade	RF	Max Fried + bullpen	3.77	0.763 → 0.720	-0.044	0.971 → 1.015	+0.045	0.298 → 0.276	-0.023	0.167 → 0.128	-0.038

Liam Hicks	C	Max Fried + bullpen	3.86	0.805 → 0.760	-0.045	0.501 → 0.528	+0.027	0.365 → 0.337	-0.028	0.121 → 0.093	-0.028

Jonny DeLuca	CF	Max Fried + bullpen	3.81	0.899 → 0.849	-0.051	0.993 → 1.040	+0.047	0.253 → 0.233	-0.020	0.142 → 0.109	-0.033

Richie Palacios	2B	Max Fried + bullpen	3.55	0.755 → 0.711	-0.043	0.738 → 0.775	+0.037	0.371 → 0.343	-0.028	0.114 → 0.088	-0.026

Taylor Walls	SS	Max Fried + bullpen	3.50	0.658 → 0.620	-0.038	0.928 → 0.970	+0.042	0.356 → 0.329	-0.027	0.059 → 0.046	-0.014

TB starter against the NYY lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Nick Martinez	Starter	NYY	18.05	4.238 → 4.243	+0.005	3.171 → 3.257	+0.087	0.896 → 0.971	+0.075	0.675 → 0.783	+0.108

TB bullpen: the full relief corps (7 arms)

Exposure. Starter 18.0 batters faced, bullpen 17.0 (48.4% of the game), from the club's real 35.0 staff batters faced per game over 21 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 36.8% across 3 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Cam Booser	Setup Man	pregame bullpen, published staff	22	9	28.0%	4.74
Bryan Baker	Closer	pregame bullpen, published staff	33	9	27.6%	4.68
Ian Seymour	Reliever	pregame bullpen	11	2	15.1%	2.56
Steven Matz	Reliever	pregame bullpen	33	7	12.4%	2.10
Cole Sulser	Middle Reliever	pregame bullpen, published staff	33	9	10.6%	1.79
Kevin Kelly	Reliever	pregame bullpen	30	8	4.3%	0.73
Tyler Wells	Reliever	pregame bullpen	7	2	2.1%	0.35

TB relievers against the NYY lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Cam Booser	Setup Man	NYY (28% of relief)	4.74	0.368 → 0.368	+0.001	0.713 → 0.730	+0.017	0.127 → 0.137	+0.010	0.068 → 0.079	+0.011

Bryan Baker	Closer	NYY (28% of relief)	4.68	0.540 → 0.541	+0.001	0.931 → 0.954	+0.022	0.287 → 0.310	+0.023	0.049 → 0.057	+0.008

Ian Seymour	Reliever	NYY (15% of relief)	2.56	0.538 → 0.539	+0.001	0.713 → 0.729	+0.017	0.181 → 0.195	+0.015	0.099 → 0.115	+0.016

Steven Matz	Reliever	NYY (12% of relief)	2.10	0.454 → 0.455	+0.001	0.391 → 0.401	+0.010	0.164 → 0.177	+0.013	0.076 → 0.088	+0.012

Cole Sulser	Middle Reliever	NYY (11% of relief)	1.79	0.856 → 0.857	+0.001	1.079 → 1.106	+0.027	0.311 → 0.336	+0.025	0.104 → 0.121	+0.017

Kevin Kelly	Reliever	NYY (4% of relief)	0.73	0.152 → 0.152	0	0.165 → 0.169	+0.004	0.042 → 0.045	+0.004	0.020 → 0.023	+0.003

Tyler Wells	Reliever	NYY (2% of relief)	0.35	0.069 → 0.069	0	0.090 → 0.092	+0.002	0.026 → 0.029	+0.002	0.011 → 0.012	+0.002

NYY hitters vs Nick Martinez and the bullpen

The pipeline applied one club-wide ×1.0499 to every NYY hitter line. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Trent Grisham	CF	Nick Martinez + bullpen	4.09	0.812 → 0.812	0	0.678 → 0.612	-0.066	0.405 → 0.276	-0.129	0.165 → 0.167	+0.001

Ben Rice	DH	Nick Martinez + bullpen	4.32	0.981 → 0.981	0	0.871 → 0.788	-0.083	0.562 → 0.384	-0.178	0.264 → 0.266	+0.002

Luis García Jr.	1B	Nick Martinez + bullpen	4.07	1.056 → 1.056	0	0.747 → 0.674	-0.073	0.205 → 0.137	-0.068	0.234 → 0.235	+0.002

Cody Bellinger	LF	Nick Martinez + bullpen	4.18	0.976 → 0.976	0	0.608 → 0.548	-0.060	0.295 → 0.200	-0.095	0.175 → 0.176	+0.001

George Lombard Jr.	SS	Nick Martinez + bullpen	4.04	0.890 → 0.890	0	0.987 → 0.892	-0.095	0.275 → 0.186	-0.089	0.158 → 0.159	+0.001

Austin Wells	C	Nick Martinez + bullpen	3.38	0.670 → 0.670	0	0.799 → 0.724	-0.075	0.310 → 0.211	-0.099	0.158 → 0.159	+0.001

Anthony Volpe	2B	Nick Martinez + bullpen	3.78	0.807 → 0.807	0	0.852 → 0.770	-0.082	0.279 → 0.189	-0.090	0.087 → 0.088	+0.001

Spencer Jones	RF	Nick Martinez + bullpen	3.83	0.837 → 0.837	0	1.244 → 1.135	-0.110	0.300 → 0.203	-0.097	0.160 → 0.161	+0.001

José Caballero	3B	Nick Martinez + bullpen	3.48	0.822 → 0.822	0	0.826 → 0.747	-0.078	0.213 → 0.143	-0.070	0.125 → 0.126	+0.001

NYY starter against the TB lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Max Fried	Starter	TB	20.97	3.792 → 3.962	+0.171	4.580 → 4.022	-0.559	1.414 → 1.490	+0.075	0.300 → 0.331	+0.031

NYY bullpen: the full relief corps (7 arms)

Exposure. Starter 21.0 batters faced, bullpen 15.6 (42.6% of the game), from the club's real 36.5 staff batters faced per game over 20 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 39.4% across 3 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	pregame bullpen, published staff	45	10	18.8%	2.92
Ryan Weathers	Middle Reliever	pregame bullpen, published staff	6	2	17.9%	2.79
David Bednar	Reliever	pregame bullpen	37	9	17.0%	2.64
John Schreiber	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	pregame bullpen, published staff	38	10	16.8%	2.61
Brent Headrick	Reliever	pregame bullpen	40	12	16.1%	2.51
Will Warren	Reliever	pregame bullpen	21	2	11.2%	1.74
Ryan Yarbrough	Reliever	pregame bullpen	30	5	2.2%	0.35

NYY relievers against the TB lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	TB (19% of relief)	2.92	0.811 → 0.848	+0.036	0.773 → 0.676	-0.097	0.470 → 0.495	+0.025	0.068 → 0.075	+0.007

Ryan Weathers	Middle Reliever	TB (18% of relief)	2.79	0.793 → 0.828	+0.035	0.732 → 0.645	-0.087	0.415 → 0.438	+0.022	0.119 → 0.131	+0.012

David Bednar	Reliever	TB (17% of relief)	2.64	0.535 → 0.559	+0.024	0.693 → 0.612	-0.081	0.207 → 0.218	+0.011	0.064 → 0.071	+0.007

John Schreiber	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	TB (17% of relief)	2.61	0.765 → 0.799	+0.034	0.657 → 0.573	-0.085	0.338 → 0.355	+0.018	0.090 → 0.099	+0.009

Brent Headrick	Reliever	TB (16% of relief)	2.51	0.534 → 0.557	+0.024	0.716 → 0.634	-0.082	0.213 → 0.224	+0.011	0.060 → 0.067	+0.006

Will Warren	Reliever	TB (11% of relief)	1.74	0.399 → 0.416	+0.017	0.403 → 0.354	-0.049	0.140 → 0.148	+0.007	0.054 → 0.059	+0.005

Ryan Yarbrough	Reliever	TB (2% of relief)	0.35	0.072 → 0.075	+0.003	0.067 → 0.059	-0.009	0.030 → 0.031	+0.002	0.008 → 0.009	+0.001

Measured from published artifacts and stored KPI values. Nothing recomputed. Per-player adjustments are a measurement of the catalog, not the published line.