MLB Prediction System

KPI Slate Report

2026-10-07 · executive view

slate 2026-10-07games 4kpi applied 4/4model 20261008T091425Z_3ccbc4c
Slate at a glance
KPIs registered
40
feeding 44 model features
Games on card
4
KPI layer applied to 4
Batters resolved
72
of 662 in the league
Starters resolved
8
of 866 in the league
Mean run movement
0.60
combined home plus away
What the KPI layer is worth

Measured out of sample, not on this slate

Frozen evaluation over 147 untouched holdout games. Coefficients use development dates and weights use selection dates before the holdout is scored.

TargetWeightBaselineWith KPIGainMovedMean moveVerdict
home_runs0.382.53742.5016+0.0358-/1470.000inconclusive
away_runs0.342.52382.4145+0.1093-/1470.000inconclusive
home_win0.000.24680.2468+0.0000-/1470.000inconclusive
Catalog use

Registered versus consumed

34 of 40 registered KPIs feed the joint game model. Legacy per-KPI applied weights do not represent the active application path.

KPIConsumedStatusInterpretation
batter_barrel_rate_vs_offspeedyesjoint_model_inputskill measurement
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_slideryesjoint_model_inputskill measurement
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_breakingyesjoint_model_inputskill measurement
batter_whiff_rate_vs_fastballyesjoint_model_inputskill measurement
batter_whiff_rate_vs_breakingyesjoint_model_inputskill measurement
batter_whiff_rate_vs_offspeedyesjoint_model_inputskill measurement
batter_barrel_rate_vs_fastballyesjoint_model_inputskill measurement
batter_barrel_rate_vs_breakingyesjoint_model_inputskill measurement
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_fastballyesjoint_model_inputskill measurement
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_fastballyesjoint_model_inputskill measurement
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_breakingyesjoint_model_inputskill measurement
batter_exit_velocity_vs_fastballyesjoint_model_inputskill measurement
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_fastballyesjoint_model_inputskill measurement
batter_contact_rate_vs_breakingyesjoint_model_inputskill measurement
batter_whiff_rate_vs_rhpyesjoint_model_inputskill measurement
batter_whiff_rate_vs_lhpyesjoint_model_inputskill measurement
batter_barrel_rate_vs_rhpyesjoint_model_inputskill measurement
batter_barrel_rate_vs_lhpyesjoint_model_inputskill measurement
batter_strikeout_rateyesjoint_model_inputskill measurement
batter_walk_rateyesjoint_model_inputskill measurement
batter_home_run_rateyesjoint_model_inputskill measurement
batter_contact_xwobayesjoint_model_inputskill measurement
batter_bat_speedyesjoint_model_inputskill measurement
pitcher_barrel_rate_allowedyesjoint_model_inputskill measurement
pitcher_whiff_rateyesjoint_model_inputskill measurement
pitcher_whiff_rate_fastballyesjoint_model_inputskill measurement
pitcher_whiff_rate_breakingyesjoint_model_inputskill measurement
pitcher_hard_hit_rate_allowedyesjoint_model_inputskill measurement
pitcher_ground_ball_rate_inducedyesjoint_model_inputskill measurement
pitcher_contact_xwoba_allowedyesjoint_model_inputskill measurement
pitcher_strikeout_rateyesjoint_model_inputskill measurement
pitcher_walk_rateyesjoint_model_inputskill measurement
pitcher_home_run_rate_allowedyesjoint_model_inputskill measurement
pitcher_release_speedyesjoint_model_inputpitch-mix velocity, not overall pitcher quality
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_rhhnoresearch_onlyskill measurement
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_lhhnoresearch_onlyskill measurement
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_rhhnoresearch_onlyskill measurement
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_lhhnoresearch_onlyskill measurement
matchup_barrel_rate_archetypenoresearch_onlyskill measurement
matchup_whiff_rate_archetypenoresearch_onlyskill measurement
Game by game

What the layer did to this card

GameBaselineKPI onlyMove AMove HPrior publishedThis runActualError gainState
CLE @ CHW5.00-4.005.00-5.17+0.00+0.455-4 CLE5-4 CLE9-3+0applied
LAD @ ATL4.00-3.004.12-4.80+0.04+0.686-4 LAD6-4 LAD4-1+0applied
MIL @ SD4.00-5.003.42-6.02-0.20+0.396-5 MIL6-5 MIL3-1+0applied
TB @ NYY3.00-4.004.36-4.53+0.46+0.203-4 NYY3-4 NYY4-3+0applied
Settled scoring across 4 games, against the prior card. Total run error 4.750 before, 4.750 after, a gain of +0.000 runs per game. Winners 3/4 before, 3/4 after. This regenerated slate is diagnostic. Intermediate baseline-to-final movement does not isolate KPI impact without paired final outputs.
Luna matchup review

State on this slate

historical_not_requested: 4. Per-game Luna matchup review status as recorded in each artifact.
Luna KPI review

KPIs Luna created

Latest review 20261006: 1 KPI-level faults, 1 player-level faults, Luna skipped_no_pregame_evidence; report 20261006_kpi_luna_review.html. A Luna KPI moves hitter lines only after 400+ rows over 5+ slates after its proposal with a gain interval above zero.
KPIstatustargetproposedprospective evidencegain interval
luna_pitcher_release_speed_vs_righthanded_startersshadowSO20260923330 rows / 5 slates[-0.0003, +0.0001]
luna_pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_rhh_righthanded_startersshadowHR20260923330 rows / 5 slates[-0.0005, +0.0058]
luna_batter_contact_rate_vs_breaking_righthanded_startersshadowH20260923330 rows / 5 slates[-0.0045, +0.0044]
luna_batter_walk_rate_vs_righthanded_pitchers_for_home_runsretiredHR202609240 rows / 0 slates–
luna_batter_contact_rate_vs_breaking_left_handed_starters_for_strikeoutsshadowSO20260924122 rows / 4 slates[-0.0030, +0.0022]
luna_pitcher_contact_xwoba_allowed_vs_righthanded_starters_for_strikeoutsshadowSO20260924122 rows / 4 slates[-0.0000, +0.0001]
luna_pitcher_whiff_rate_breaking_vs_left_handed_hitters_for_hitsshadowH20260924122 rows / 4 slates[-0.0056, -0.0011]
luna_pitcher_home_run_rate_vs_righthanded_startersshadowHR20260925122 rows / 4 slates[-0.0015, +0.0079]
luna_batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball_vs_lhp_for_home_runsshadowHR2026092686 rows / 3 slates[-0.0001, +0.0000]
luna_pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_right_handed_starters_for_batter_strikeoutsshadowSO2026092951 rows / 2 slates–
luna_batter_whiff_rate_vs_breaking_right_handed_starters_for_hitsshadowH2026092951 rows / 2 slates–
generated 2026-10-08T09:14:26.507759+00:00 · kpi_slate_report_v3
model 20261008T091425Z_3ccbc4c8 · bundle 20261008T081246Z_b695f0dd
sources: output/games/revisions · output/learning/kpi/{ledger,models,values} · statsapi.mlb.com official schedule