MLB Prediction System

KPI Player Effects

How each KPI adds or removes a hit, a strikeout, a walk or a home run, per player, against the arm he actually faces

Slate 20261003Games 4Schema kpi_player_effects_v2Built 2026-10-06 14:08Z

What this document measures

Every counting stat below has a KPI on both sides of the matchup, measured on the same denominator: a plate appearance. That is what lets the hitter's reading and the starter's reading be combined instead of listed side by side. The combination is the standard Log5 odds ratio, which is exactly additive in log odds, so the hitter's push and the pitcher's push separate cleanly and the remainder is reported rather than absorbed.

Hits use a derived KPI. Hit rate is not in config/kpi_registry.json: registering it would move the registry hash recorded in the model manifest and fail the live layer closed until a retrain. It is computed with the same strict as-of cutoff and the same shrinkage, stored in its own namespace, and never read by the runtime.

These per-player numbers are measured, not published. The live KPI layer moves team runs and the win probability. The hitter lines in the artifact were then scaled by one club-wide ratio, identical for the leadoff hitter and the ninth bat. The per-hitter columns here are what that single ratio discards.

The whole staff, not only the starter. A hitter takes roughly four in ten of his plate appearances against relievers. Each club's bullpen here is the pregame bullpen: the seven busiest healthy relievers of the last 30 days, the same arms the KPI forecast weighted and the simulation pitched, each sharing the relief work by the batters faced the forecast gave him. The bullpen's workload tonight is the club's real mean staff batters faced minus the starter's projection. The published staff alone holds only the relievers one simulation draw used, so it is shown beside the bullpen for comparison, not used.

Reading a delta. Own skill is measured against the league. The opponent effect is measured against the hitter's own rate, which is the only one that may adjust a published line, because the published line already carries his own skill. Adding both to a published line would count the hitter twice.

Coverage. 72 hitter-versus-starter pairings; 56 have both sides above their sample floor on hits and 63 carry a non-zero hit adjustment. A side below its floor falls back to the league rate and is marked n<floor, which is a stated absence of evidence rather than a measured zero. All four outcome metrics have value documents. Handedness source: model bundle pitcher_hands.json.

Largest per-player movements on the slate

Hitter	Club	Metric	Starter faced (+ bullpen)	Published	KPI adjusted, whole staff	Δ	Hitter band	Pitcher band	Game
Jackson Merrill	SD	Strikeouts	Jacob Misiorowski	1.367	1.905	+0.538	Average	Very good	20261003_SD@MIL
Ty France	SD	Strikeouts	Jacob Misiorowski	1.259	1.778	+0.519	Average	Very good	20261003_SD@MIL
Manny Machado	SD	Strikeouts	Jacob Misiorowski	1.242	1.758	+0.515	Average	Very good	20261003_SD@MIL
Fernando Tatis Jr.	SD	Strikeouts	Jacob Misiorowski	1.143	1.642	+0.500	Good	Very good	20261003_SD@MIL
Luis Campusano	SD	Strikeouts	Jacob Misiorowski	1.142	1.614	+0.472	Average	Very good	20261003_SD@MIL
Jake Cronenworth	SD	Strikeouts	Jacob Misiorowski	1.131	1.587	+0.456	Average	Very good	20261003_SD@MIL
Ethan Salas	SD	Strikeouts	Jacob Misiorowski	1.054	1.484	+0.430	averagen<floor	Very good	20261003_SD@MIL
Xander Bogaerts	SD	Strikeouts	Jacob Misiorowski	0.962	1.386	+0.424	Good	Very good	20261003_SD@MIL
Dustin Harris	SD	Strikeouts	Jacob Misiorowski	0.905	1.274	+0.369	averagen<floor	Very good	20261003_SD@MIL
Drake Baldwin	ATL	Strikeouts	Tarik Skubal	1.270	1.610	+0.341	Average	Very good	20261003_ATL@LAD
Matt Olson	ATL	Strikeouts	Tarik Skubal	1.328	1.667	+0.339	Average	Very good	20261003_ATL@LAD
Austin Riley	ATL	Strikeouts	Tarik Skubal	1.450	1.778	+0.328	Poor	Very good	20261003_ATL@LAD
Sean Murphy	ATL	Strikeouts	Tarik Skubal	1.178	1.488	+0.310	averagen<floor	Very good	20261003_ATL@LAD
Ronald Acuña Jr.	ATL	Strikeouts	Tarik Skubal	1.142	1.444	+0.302	Average	Very good	20261003_ATL@LAD
Michael Harris II	ATL	Strikeouts	Tarik Skubal	1.085	1.385	+0.300	Average	Very good	20261003_ATL@LAD
Ha-Seong Kim	ATL	Strikeouts	Tarik Skubal	1.007	1.272	+0.265	averagen<floor	Very good	20261003_ATL@LAD
Ozzie Albies	ATL	Strikeouts	Tarik Skubal	0.769	0.993	+0.224	Good	Very good	20261003_ATL@LAD
Kyle Teel	CHW	Strikeouts	Parker Messick	1.407	1.623	+0.217	averagen<floor	Good	20261003_CHW@CLE
Munetaka Murakami	CHW	Strikeouts	Parker Messick	1.701	1.917	+0.216	Poor	Good	20261003_CHW@CLE
Mauricio Dubón	ATL	Strikeouts	Tarik Skubal	0.689	0.899	+0.211	Very good	Very good	20261003_ATL@LAD

Per game

Club Player

20261003_ATL@LAD — team layer withheld (no gate recorded); runs moved away 0 / home 0

Dylan Dodd (LHP, 14.4 BF)
H 0.1933 Very good · SO 0.2620 Good · BB 0.0815 Average · HR 0.0294 Average

Tarik Skubal (LHP, 25.9 BF)
H 0.2076 Average · SO 0.2910 Very good · BB 0.0527 Very good · HR 0.0259 Good

Warnings: away starter is projected 14.4204 batters faced, outside the real p10-p90 band of 17-27; away published staff projects 22.6356 batters faced, outside the real p10-p90 band of 30-45; the exposure here uses the club's real 36.98 per game instead

ATL hitters vs Tarik Skubal and the bullpen

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to ATL hitter lines. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Drake Baldwin	DH	Tarik Skubal + bullpen	4.39	1.021 → 0.976	-0.046	1.270 → 1.610	+0.341	0.308 → 0.218	-0.090	0.173 → 0.151	-0.022

Matt Olson	1B	Tarik Skubal + bullpen	4.00	0.882 → 0.842	-0.040	1.328 → 1.667	+0.339	0.286 → 0.203	-0.084	0.200 → 0.175	-0.025

Michael Harris II	CF	Tarik Skubal + bullpen	3.96	1.031 → 0.986	-0.045	1.085 → 1.385	+0.300	0.138 → 0.097	-0.042	0.170 → 0.149	-0.021

Ronald Acuña Jr.	RF	Tarik Skubal + bullpen	4.25	0.880 → 0.840	-0.040	1.142 → 1.444	+0.302	0.415 → 0.295	-0.120	0.169 → 0.147	-0.021

Ozzie Albies	2B	Tarik Skubal + bullpen	3.94	0.884 → 0.844	-0.041	0.769 → 0.993	+0.224	0.268 → 0.188	-0.079	0.160 → 0.140	-0.020

Mauricio Dubón	LF	Tarik Skubal + bullpen	3.90	0.878 → 0.839	-0.039	0.689 → 0.899	+0.211	0.224 → 0.157	-0.067	0.111 → 0.097	-0.014

Sean Murphy	C	Tarik Skubal + bullpen	3.52	0.699 → 0.667	-0.032	1.178 → 1.488	+0.310	0.293 → 0.207	-0.086	0.120 → 0.105	-0.015

Austin Riley	3B	Tarik Skubal + bullpen	3.65	0.732 → 0.698	-0.034	1.450 → 1.778	+0.328	0.272 → 0.192	-0.080	0.118 → 0.103	-0.015

Ha-Seong Kim	SS	Tarik Skubal + bullpen	3.18	0.587 → 0.560	-0.027	1.007 → 1.272	+0.265	0.290 → 0.205	-0.085	0.065 → 0.056	-0.008

ATL starter against the LAD lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Dylan Dodd	Starter	LAD	14.42	1.514 → 1.564	+0.050	3.500 → 3.174	-0.326	0.000 → 0.000	0	0.000 → 0.000	0

ATL bullpen: the full relief corps (10 arms)

Exposure. Starter 14.4 batters faced, bullpen 22.6 (61.0% of the game), from the club's real 37.0 staff batters faced per game over 25 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 36.3% across 2 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Didier Fuentes	Setup Man	published staff, recent relief	59	11	18.7%	4.21
AJ Smith-Shawver	Reliever	recent relief	41	4	13.2%	2.99
Raisel Iglesias	Closer	published staff, recent relief	39	11	12.7%	2.85
Dylan Lee	Reliever	recent relief	33	8	10.8%	2.45
Brent Suter	Reliever	recent relief	32	5	10.5%	2.38
Victor Mederos	Reliever	recent relief	28	7	9.3%	2.11
Ray Kerr	Reliever	recent relief	28	4	9.3%	2.11
Grant Holmes	Reliever	recent relief	25	2	8.4%	1.90
Robert Suarez	Reliever	recent relief	12	3	4.5%	1.02
Chris Sale	Reliever	recent relief	5	1	2.4%	0.54

ATL relievers against the LAD lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Didier Fuentes	Setup Man	LAD (19% of relief)	4.21	1.054 → 1.088	+0.034	1.024 → 0.931	-0.093	0.197 → 0.223	+0.026	0.170 → 0.194	+0.025

AJ Smith-Shawver	Reliever	LAD (13% of relief)	2.99	0.653 → 0.674	+0.021	0.596 → 0.537	-0.060	0.297 → 0.336	+0.038	0.104 → 0.119	+0.015

Raisel Iglesias	Closer	LAD (13% of relief)	2.85	0.800 → 0.825	+0.026	0.952 → 0.862	-0.089	0.206 → 0.234	+0.027	0.085 → 0.097	+0.012

Dylan Lee	Reliever	LAD (11% of relief)	2.45	0.491 → 0.507	+0.016	0.680 → 0.618	-0.062	0.185 → 0.209	+0.025	0.058 → 0.066	+0.008

Brent Suter	Reliever	LAD (11% of relief)	2.38	0.531 → 0.547	+0.017	0.498 → 0.449	-0.049	0.178 → 0.202	+0.024	0.065 → 0.075	+0.009

Victor Mederos	Reliever	LAD (9% of relief)	2.11	0.433 → 0.447	+0.014	0.478 → 0.431	-0.046	0.193 → 0.218	+0.025	0.052 → 0.059	+0.007

Ray Kerr	Reliever	LAD (9% of relief)	2.11	0.457 → 0.471	+0.015	0.466 → 0.420	-0.046	0.187 → 0.212	+0.024	0.064 → 0.073	+0.009

Grant Holmes	Reliever	LAD (8% of relief)	1.90	0.411 → 0.424	+0.013	0.353 → 0.318	-0.036	0.174 → 0.197	+0.023	0.064 → 0.073	+0.009

Robert Suarez	Reliever	LAD (5% of relief)	1.02	0.211 → 0.218	+0.007	0.212 → 0.191	-0.021	0.071 → 0.080	+0.009	0.026 → 0.029	+0.004

Chris Sale	Reliever	LAD (2% of relief)	0.54	0.113 → 0.116	+0.004	0.160 → 0.146	-0.014	0.031 → 0.035	+0.004	0.012 → 0.014	+0.002

LAD hitters vs Dylan Dodd and the bullpen

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to LAD hitter lines. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Shohei Ohtani	DH	Dylan Dodd + bullpen	4.42	0.894 → 0.846	-0.048	1.288 → 1.433	+0.144	0.484 → 0.449	-0.035	0.194 → 0.183	-0.011

Will Smith	C	Dylan Dodd + bullpen	4.12	0.803 → 0.759	-0.043	0.801 → 0.900	+0.100	0.452 → 0.419	-0.033	0.143 → 0.136	-0.008

Mookie Betts	SS	Dylan Dodd + bullpen	4.29	0.880 → 0.833	-0.047	0.577 → 0.654	+0.077	0.379 → 0.350	-0.029	0.180 → 0.170	-0.010

Teoscar Hernández	LF	Dylan Dodd + bullpen	3.97	0.822 → 0.778	-0.044	1.216 → 1.348	+0.132	0.351 → 0.325	-0.027	0.135 → 0.127	-0.007

Freddie Freeman	1B	Dylan Dodd + bullpen	4.13	0.900 → 0.852	-0.048	0.896 → 1.007	+0.111	0.367 → 0.339	-0.028	0.111 → 0.105	-0.006

Tommy Edman	2B	Dylan Dodd + bullpen	3.67	0.735 → 0.695	-0.040	0.881 → 0.986	+0.105	0.277 → 0.255	-0.021	0.108 → 0.102	-0.006

Andy Pages	CF	Dylan Dodd + bullpen	3.77	0.789 → 0.747	-0.042	0.848 → 0.950	+0.102	0.339 → 0.313	-0.026	0.149 → 0.141	-0.008

Kyle Tucker	RF	Dylan Dodd + bullpen	3.94	0.750 → 0.709	-0.041	0.819 → 0.921	+0.102	0.395 → 0.366	-0.029	0.114 → 0.108	-0.006

Max Muncy	3B	Dylan Dodd + bullpen	3.77	0.747 → 0.707	-0.041	1.133 → 1.259	+0.126	0.369 → 0.342	-0.027	0.174 → 0.165	-0.009

LAD starter against the ATL lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Tarik Skubal	Starter	ATL	25.93	5.428 → 5.651	+0.223	6.258 → 5.964	-0.294	1.241 → 1.133	-0.108	0.509 → 0.587	+0.078

LAD bullpen: the full relief corps (9 arms)

Exposure. Starter 25.9 batters faced, bullpen 10.0 (27.9% of the game), from the club's real 35.9 staff batters faced per game over 23 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 37.6% across 3 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Tanner Scott	Closer	published staff, recent relief	34	9	15.5%	1.55
Alex Vesia	Reliever	recent relief	31	10	14.2%	1.43
Evan Phillips	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	published staff, recent relief	31	9	14.2%	1.43
Justin Wrobleski	Setup Man	published staff, recent relief	26	4	12.1%	1.21
Edgardo Henriquez	Reliever	recent relief	22	6	10.5%	1.05
Brock Stewart	Reliever	recent relief	21	7	10.0%	1.01
Kris Bubic	Reliever	recent relief	19	5	9.2%	0.92
Edwin Díaz	Reliever	recent relief	17	5	8.4%	0.84
Roki Sasaki	Reliever	recent relief	11	3	5.9%	0.59

LAD relievers against the ATL lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Tanner Scott	Closer	ATL (15% of relief)	1.55	0.687 → 0.716	+0.028	1.274 → 1.215	-0.059	0.293 → 0.268	-0.025	0.054 → 0.063	+0.008

Alex Vesia	Reliever	ATL (14% of relief)	1.43	0.252 → 0.262	+0.011	0.412 → 0.393	-0.019	0.166 → 0.153	-0.014	0.037 → 0.042	+0.006

Evan Phillips	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	ATL (14% of relief)	1.43	0.760 → 0.791	+0.031	1.221 → 1.159	-0.063	0.196 → 0.179	-0.017	0.215 → 0.248	+0.033

Justin Wrobleski	Setup Man	ATL (12% of relief)	1.21	2.083 → 2.167	+0.084	1.536 → 1.456	-0.080	0.466 → 0.425	-0.040	0.182 → 0.209	+0.028

Edgardo Henriquez	Reliever	ATL (10% of relief)	1.05	0.197 → 0.205	+0.008	0.288 → 0.275	-0.014	0.102 → 0.094	-0.009	0.022 → 0.026	+0.003

Brock Stewart	Reliever	ATL (10% of relief)	1.01	0.218 → 0.227	+0.009	0.222 → 0.211	-0.011	0.089 → 0.082	-0.007	0.031 → 0.035	+0.005

Kris Bubic	Reliever	ATL (9% of relief)	0.92	0.184 → 0.192	+0.008	0.222 → 0.211	-0.011	0.096 → 0.088	-0.008	0.024 → 0.028	+0.004

Edwin Díaz	Reliever	ATL (8% of relief)	0.84	0.182 → 0.189	+0.007	0.185 → 0.176	-0.009	0.074 → 0.068	-0.006	0.025 → 0.029	+0.004

Roki Sasaki	Reliever	ATL (6% of relief)	0.59	0.127 → 0.132	+0.005	0.137 → 0.130	-0.007	0.053 → 0.049	-0.004	0.021 → 0.025	+0.003

20261003_CHW@CLE — team layer withheld (no gate recorded); runs moved away 0 / home 0

Hagen Smith (LHP, 16.5 BF)
H 0.2169 averagen<floor · SO 0.2212 averagen<floor · BB 0.0889 averagen<floor · HR 0.0304 averagen<floor

Parker Messick (LHP, 22.7 BF)
H 0.2064 Good · SO 0.2536 Good · BB 0.0678 Very good · HR 0.0252 Good

Warnings: away starter is projected 16.4513 batters faced, outside the real p10-p90 band of 17-27

CHW hitters vs Parker Messick and the bullpen

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to CHW hitter lines. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Randal Grichuk	LF	Parker Messick + bullpen	3.90	0.977 → 0.930	-0.047	0.958 → 1.106	+0.148	0.218 → 0.196	-0.023	0.142 → 0.122	-0.020

Munetaka Murakami	1B	Parker Messick + bullpen	4.30	0.790 → 0.750	-0.041	1.701 → 1.917	+0.216	0.534 → 0.481	-0.052	0.192 → 0.166	-0.027

Tommy Pham	DH	Parker Messick + bullpen	3.36	0.692 → 0.658	-0.034	1.025 → 1.183	+0.158	0.318 → 0.285	-0.033	0.094 → 0.081	-0.013

Chase Meidroth	2B	Parker Messick + bullpen	4.11	0.947 → 0.901	-0.046	0.998 → 1.153	+0.155	0.380 → 0.341	-0.039	0.096 → 0.082	-0.014

Braden Montgomery	RF	Parker Messick + bullpen	3.69	0.761 → 0.723	-0.038	0.892 → 1.034	+0.142	0.356 → 0.320	-0.036	0.085 → 0.072	-0.012

Miguel Vargas	3B	Parker Messick + bullpen	4.35	0.837 → 0.795	-0.042	0.863 → 1.004	+0.141	0.553 → 0.498	-0.055	0.168 → 0.144	-0.024

Brenton Doyle	CF	Parker Messick + bullpen	3.78	0.819 → 0.778	-0.041	1.369 → 1.555	+0.186	0.256 → 0.229	-0.027	0.092 → 0.079	-0.013

Kyle Teel	C	Parker Messick + bullpen	3.65	0.764 → 0.726	-0.038	1.407 → 1.623	+0.217	0.316 → 0.283	-0.033	0.102 → 0.088	-0.015

Colson Montgomery	SS	Parker Messick + bullpen	3.50	0.688 → 0.652	-0.035	1.506 → 1.696	+0.190	0.260 → 0.233	-0.027	0.132 → 0.113	-0.018

CHW starter against the CLE lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Hagen Smith	Starter	CLE	16.45	3.413 → 3.462	+0.048	4.207 → 3.459	-0.748	0.000 → 0.000	0	0.000 → 0.000	0

CHW bullpen: the full relief corps (10 arms)

Exposure. Starter 16.5 batters faced, bullpen 19.2 (53.8% of the game), from the club's real 35.6 staff batters faced per game over 2 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 62.9% across 5 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Erick Fedde	Reliever	recent relief	33	2	24.5%	4.69
Bryan Hudson	Setup Man	published staff, recent relief	20	6	15.7%	3.00
Sean Burke	Reliever	recent relief	20	1	15.7%	3.00
Davis Martin	Reliever	recent relief	20	1	15.7%	3.00
Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	published staff, recent relief	16	2	12.9%	2.48
David Sandlin	Reliever	recent relief	5	1	5.4%	1.04
Anthony Kay	Reliever	recent relief	3	1	4.1%	0.78
Huascar Brazobán	Middle Reliever	published staff	0	0	2.0%	0.39
Grant Taylor	Closer	published staff	0	0	2.0%	0.39
Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	published staff	0	0	2.0%	0.39

CHW relievers against the CLE lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Erick Fedde	Reliever	CLE (24% of relief)	4.69	1.057 → 1.072	+0.015	0.798 → 0.649	-0.149	0.406 → 0.423	+0.017	0.163 → 0.151	-0.012

Bryan Hudson	Setup Man	CLE (16% of relief)	3.00	1.020 → 1.034	+0.014	1.004 → 0.824	-0.180	0.260 → 0.271	+0.011	0.085 → 0.079	-0.006

Sean Burke	Reliever	CLE (16% of relief)	3.00	0.619 → 0.627	+0.009	0.758 → 0.628	-0.130	0.268 → 0.279	+0.011	0.086 → 0.080	-0.006

Davis Martin	Reliever	CLE (16% of relief)	3.00	0.691 → 0.700	+0.010	0.601 → 0.492	-0.109	0.232 → 0.242	+0.010	0.078 → 0.072	-0.006

Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	CLE (13% of relief)	2.48	1.881 → 1.908	+0.027	1.897 → 1.561	-0.335	0.639 → 0.666	+0.027	0.038 → 0.035	-0.003

David Sandlin	Reliever	CLE (5% of relief)	1.04	0.226 → 0.229	+0.003	0.243 → 0.201	-0.043	0.087 → 0.090	+0.004	0.035 → 0.032	-0.003

Anthony Kay	Reliever	CLE (4% of relief)	0.78	0.175 → 0.178	+0.003	0.144 → 0.117	-0.026	0.064 → 0.067	+0.003	0.024 → 0.022	-0.002

Huascar Brazobán	Middle Reliever	CLE (2% of relief)	0.39	0.481 → 0.488	+0.007	1.095 → 0.899	-0.196	0.356 → 0.371	+0.015	0.040 → 0.037	-0.003

Grant Taylor	Closer	CLE (2% of relief)	0.39	1.116 → 1.132	+0.016	2.638 → 2.207	-0.431	0.526 → 0.548	+0.022	0.103 → 0.096	-0.007

Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	CLE (2% of relief)	0.39	0.909 → 0.922	+0.013	1.575 → 1.312	-0.264	0.680 → 0.708	+0.027	0.114 → 0.105	-0.008

CLE hitters vs Hagen Smith and the bullpen

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to CLE hitter lines. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Steven Kwan	CF	Hagen Smith + bullpen	4.47	0.885 → 0.889	+0.004	0.556 → 0.540	-0.015	0.588 → 0.574	-0.014	0.047 → 0.046	-0.002

Jo Adell	DH	Hagen Smith + bullpen	4.09	0.808 → 0.812	+0.004	1.166 → 1.138	-0.028	0.304 → 0.296	-0.008	0.129 → 0.124	-0.004

David Fry	1B	Hagen Smith + bullpen	3.56	0.633 → 0.636	+0.003	1.095 → 1.070	-0.025	0.434 → 0.423	-0.011	0.107 → 0.104	-0.004

José Ramírez	3B	Hagen Smith + bullpen	4.61	0.826 → 0.830	+0.004	0.714 → 0.695	-0.019	0.599 → 0.584	-0.015	0.102 → 0.098	-0.003

Angel Martínez	LF	Hagen Smith + bullpen	3.95	0.827 → 0.830	+0.004	1.074 → 1.048	-0.026	0.232 → 0.226	-0.006	0.145 → 0.140	-0.005

Travis Bazzana	2B	Hagen Smith + bullpen	3.80	0.715 → 0.718	+0.003	0.980 → 0.956	-0.024	0.419 → 0.408	-0.011	0.099 → 0.096	-0.003

Chase DeLauter	RF	Hagen Smith + bullpen	4.29	0.890 → 0.894	+0.004	0.827 → 0.805	-0.022	0.469 → 0.457	-0.012	0.111 → 0.108	-0.004

Austin Hedges	C	Hagen Smith + bullpen	3.50	0.655 → 0.659	+0.003	0.769 → 0.750	-0.019	0.420 → 0.410	-0.011	0.086 → 0.083	-0.003

Brayan Rocchio	SS	Hagen Smith + bullpen	3.52	0.704 → 0.707	+0.003	0.641 → 0.624	-0.017	0.302 → 0.294	-0.008	0.081 → 0.078	-0.003

CLE starter against the CHW lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Parker Messick	Starter	CHW	22.74	5.384 → 5.332	-0.052	5.103 → 5.738	+0.634	1.355 → 1.492	+0.136	0.533 → 0.633	+0.100

CLE bullpen: the full relief corps (8 arms)

Exposure. Starter 22.7 batters faced, bullpen 15.2 (40.0% of the game), from the club's real 37.9 staff batters faced per game over 23 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 35.3% across 3 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Joey Cantillo	Reliever	recent relief	53	3	18.1%	2.74
Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	published staff, recent relief	52	13	17.7%	2.69
Cade Smith	Closer	published staff, recent relief	44	11	15.2%	2.30
Matt Festa	Reliever	recent relief	37	7	12.9%	1.96
Tim Herrin	Reliever	recent relief	37	9	12.9%	1.96
Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	published staff, recent relief	34	9	11.9%	1.81
Daniel Espino	Reliever	recent relief	21	5	7.7%	1.17
Shawn Armstrong	Reliever	recent relief	8	3	3.5%	0.54

CLE relievers against the CHW lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Joey Cantillo	Reliever	CHW (18% of relief)	2.74	0.580 → 0.574	-0.006	0.673 → 0.758	+0.085	0.308 → 0.337	+0.029	0.074 → 0.088	+0.014

Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	CHW (18% of relief)	2.69	1.085 → 1.074	-0.011	0.759 → 0.858	+0.099	0.315 → 0.346	+0.031	0.167 → 0.198	+0.031

Cade Smith	Closer	CHW (15% of relief)	2.30	0.569 → 0.563	-0.006	1.247 → 1.384	+0.137	0.294 → 0.324	+0.029	0.049 → 0.058	+0.009

Matt Festa	Reliever	CHW (13% of relief)	1.96	0.430 → 0.426	-0.004	0.452 → 0.510	+0.058	0.157 → 0.173	+0.016	0.053 → 0.063	+0.010

Tim Herrin	Reliever	CHW (13% of relief)	1.96	0.397 → 0.393	-0.004	0.442 → 0.499	+0.057	0.208 → 0.228	+0.020	0.053 → 0.063	+0.010

Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	CHW (12% of relief)	1.81	0.452 → 0.447	-0.004	1.312 → 1.455	+0.143	0.682 → 0.745	+0.064	0.045 → 0.054	+0.009

Daniel Espino	Reliever	CHW (8% of relief)	1.17	0.255 → 0.252	-0.003	0.260 → 0.293	+0.034	0.104 → 0.115	+0.010	0.036 → 0.042	+0.007

Shawn Armstrong	Reliever	CHW (4% of relief)	0.54	0.112 → 0.111	-0.001	0.117 → 0.133	+0.015	0.056 → 0.062	+0.005	0.015 → 0.018	+0.003

20261003_NYY@TB — team layer withheld (no gate recorded); runs moved away 0 / home 0

Gerrit Cole (RHP, 23.6 BF)
H 0.2199 Average · SO 0.2482 Good · BB 0.0577 Very good · HR 0.0368 Poor

Drew Rasmussen (RHP, 23.5 BF)
H 0.1960 Good · SO 0.2559 Good · BB 0.0557 Very good · HR 0.0247 Good

NYY hitters vs Drew Rasmussen and the bullpen

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to NYY hitter lines. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Spencer Jones	RF	Drew Rasmussen + bullpen	4.06	0.870 → 0.801	-0.070	1.522 → 1.673	+0.152	0.269 → 0.188	-0.081	0.154 → 0.135	-0.019

Cody Bellinger	LF	Drew Rasmussen + bullpen	4.32	0.937 → 0.863	-0.074	0.700 → 0.792	+0.092	0.332 → 0.233	-0.099	0.136 → 0.120	-0.017

George Lombard Jr.	SS	Drew Rasmussen + bullpen	3.97	0.875 → 0.805	-0.070	1.126 → 1.262	+0.137	0.206 → 0.144	-0.062	0.154 → 0.135	-0.019

Ben Rice	DH	Drew Rasmussen + bullpen	4.19	0.849 → 0.782	-0.068	1.117 → 1.249	+0.132	0.388 → 0.274	-0.114	0.248 → 0.218	-0.030

Luis García Jr.	1B	Drew Rasmussen + bullpen	4.07	0.949 → 0.875	-0.074	0.823 → 0.929	+0.106	0.172 → 0.119	-0.053	0.215 → 0.189	-0.026

Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2B	Drew Rasmussen + bullpen	3.65	0.728 → 0.669	-0.059	1.150 → 1.276	+0.126	0.279 → 0.196	-0.083	0.126 → 0.111	-0.015

Trent Grisham	CF	Drew Rasmussen + bullpen	3.76	0.779 → 0.715	-0.064	0.773 → 0.872	+0.099	0.327 → 0.231	-0.096	0.148 → 0.130	-0.018

Austin Wells	C	Drew Rasmussen + bullpen	3.20	0.589 → 0.541	-0.049	0.842 → 0.938	+0.097	0.271 → 0.191	-0.080	0.131 → 0.115	-0.016

Ryan McMahon	3B	Drew Rasmussen + bullpen	3.27	0.651 → 0.599	-0.053	1.103 → 1.225	+0.121	0.206 → 0.143	-0.062	0.105 → 0.092	-0.013

NYY starter against the TB lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Gerrit Cole	Starter	TB	23.62	5.527 → 5.888	+0.361	5.867 → 4.734	-1.133	0.983 → 0.980	-0.003	1.809 → 1.816	+0.007

NYY bullpen: the full relief corps (6 arms)

Exposure. Starter 23.6 batters faced, bullpen 12.7 (35.0% of the game), from the club's real 36.3 staff batters faced per game over 21 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 22.9% across 2 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
John Schreiber	Reliever	recent relief	43	11	19.6%	2.49
David Bednar	Closer	published staff, recent relief	39	9	17.9%	2.27
Paul Blackburn	Reliever	recent relief	38	9	17.4%	2.22
Brent Headrick	Setup Man	published staff, recent relief	38	11	17.4%	2.22
Ryan Yarbrough	Reliever	recent relief	30	5	14.0%	1.78
Will Warren	Reliever	recent relief	29	3	13.6%	1.73

NYY relievers against the TB lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
John Schreiber	Reliever	TB (20% of relief)	2.49	0.519 → 0.553	+0.034	0.440 → 0.349	-0.091	0.246 → 0.246	-0.001	0.074 → 0.074	0

David Bednar	Closer	TB (18% of relief)	2.27	0.704 → 0.751	+0.047	1.108 → 0.897	-0.211	0.371 → 0.370	-0.001	0.052 → 0.052	0

Paul Blackburn	Reliever	TB (17% of relief)	2.22	0.440 → 0.470	+0.030	0.454 → 0.362	-0.092	0.210 → 0.209	-0.001	0.059 → 0.059	0

Brent Headrick	Setup Man	TB (17% of relief)	2.22	0.606 → 0.646	+0.040	0.903 → 0.736	-0.168	0.310 → 0.309	-0.001	0.083 → 0.083	0

Ryan Yarbrough	Reliever	TB (14% of relief)	1.78	0.371 → 0.396	+0.025	0.346 → 0.276	-0.071	0.152 → 0.152	0	0.042 → 0.042	0

Will Warren	Reliever	TB (14% of relief)	1.73	0.397 → 0.422	+0.026	0.401 → 0.323	-0.079	0.140 → 0.139	0	0.053 → 0.054	0

TB hitters vs Gerrit Cole and the bullpen

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to TB hitter lines. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Liam Hicks	C	Gerrit Cole + bullpen	3.93	0.954 → 0.951	-0.003	0.457 → 0.503	+0.046	0.297 → 0.228	-0.069	0.138 → 0.151	+0.013

Junior Caminero	3B	Gerrit Cole + bullpen	3.98	0.912 → 0.909	-0.003	0.788 → 0.860	+0.072	0.310 → 0.239	-0.071	0.214 → 0.234	+0.019

Yandy Díaz	DH	Gerrit Cole + bullpen	4.34	1.140 → 1.137	-0.004	0.728 → 0.798	+0.070	0.262 → 0.200	-0.061	0.153 → 0.167	+0.014

Jonny DeLuca	CF	Gerrit Cole + bullpen	3.76	0.932 → 0.929	-0.003	0.925 → 1.006	+0.081	0.159 → 0.121	-0.038	0.123 → 0.135	+0.011

Jonathan Aranda	1B	Gerrit Cole + bullpen	4.13	0.988 → 0.985	-0.003	1.099 → 1.191	+0.092	0.316 → 0.242	-0.073	0.139 → 0.152	+0.013

Richie Palacios	2B	Gerrit Cole + bullpen	3.44	0.760 → 0.757	-0.002	0.667 → 0.729	+0.062	0.285 → 0.219	-0.066	0.097 → 0.106	+0.009

Victor Mesa Jr.	RF	Gerrit Cole + bullpen	3.85	0.918 → 0.915	-0.003	0.864 → 0.940	+0.076	0.250 → 0.192	-0.058	0.180 → 0.197	+0.017

Taylor Walls	SS	Gerrit Cole + bullpen	3.36	0.672 → 0.670	-0.002	0.896 → 0.971	+0.075	0.264 → 0.203	-0.061	0.049 → 0.054	+0.005

Chandler Simpson	LF	Gerrit Cole + bullpen	3.97	1.117 → 1.113	-0.004	0.382 → 0.421	+0.040	0.156 → 0.118	-0.037	0.040 → 0.043	+0.004

TB starter against the NYY lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Drew Rasmussen	Starter	NYY	23.46	4.174 → 4.163	-0.011	4.772 → 5.141	+0.369	1.245 → 1.366	+0.120	0.303 → 0.366	+0.064

TB bullpen: the full relief corps (8 arms)

Exposure. Starter 23.5 batters faced, bullpen 12.3 (34.4% of the game), from the club's real 35.7 staff batters faced per game over 23 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 33.1% across 3 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Steven Matz	Reliever	recent relief	41	8	20.3%	2.49
Cole Sulser	Reliever	recent relief	39	10	19.4%	2.37
Kevin Kelly	Setup Man	published staff, recent relief	39	11	19.4%	2.37
Bryan Baker	Closer	published staff, recent relief	29	8	14.8%	1.81
Cam Booser	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	published staff, recent relief	24	10	12.4%	1.53
Tyler Wells	Reliever	recent relief	17	4	9.2%	1.13
Garrett Cleavinger	Reliever	recent relief	3	1	2.8%	0.34
Ian Seymour	Reliever	recent relief	1	1	1.8%	0.23

TB relievers against the NYY lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Steven Matz	Reliever	NYY (20% of relief)	2.49	0.539 → 0.538	-0.001	0.464 → 0.504	+0.040	0.194 → 0.213	+0.018	0.090 → 0.109	+0.019

Cole Sulser	Reliever	NYY (19% of relief)	2.37	0.523 → 0.522	-0.001	0.554 → 0.598	+0.044	0.187 → 0.205	+0.018	0.072 → 0.087	+0.015

Kevin Kelly	Setup Man	NYY (19% of relief)	2.37	0.847 → 0.845	-0.002	0.757 → 0.819	+0.061	0.119 → 0.130	+0.011	0.065 → 0.079	+0.014

Bryan Baker	Closer	NYY (15% of relief)	1.81	0.617 → 0.616	-0.002	0.694 → 0.748	+0.054	0.290 → 0.317	+0.027	0.050 → 0.060	+0.011

Cam Booser	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	NYY (12% of relief)	1.53	0.567 → 0.565	-0.002	0.867 → 0.932	+0.066	0.120 → 0.131	+0.011	0.099 → 0.120	+0.021

Tyler Wells	Reliever	NYY (9% of relief)	1.13	0.219 → 0.218	-0.001	0.287 → 0.310	+0.022	0.084 → 0.092	+0.008	0.034 → 0.041	+0.007

Garrett Cleavinger	Reliever	NYY (3% of relief)	0.34	0.072 → 0.072	0	0.093 → 0.100	+0.007	0.036 → 0.039	+0.003	0.011 → 0.013	+0.002

Ian Seymour	Reliever	NYY (2% of relief)	0.23	0.048 → 0.047	0	0.063 → 0.068	+0.005	0.016 → 0.018	+0.002	0.009 → 0.011	+0.002

20261003_SD@MIL — team layer withheld (no gate recorded); runs moved away 0 / home 0

Robbie Ray (LHP, 22.6 BF)
H 0.2074 Average · SO 0.1972 Below average · BB 0.1148 Poor · HR 0.0316 Average

Jacob Misiorowski (RHP, 21.6 BF)
H 0.1679 Very good · SO 0.3593 Very good · BB 0.0727 Good · HR 0.0235 Very good

SD hitters vs Jacob Misiorowski and the bullpen

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to SD hitter lines. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Ty France	1B	Jacob Misiorowski + bullpen	4.11	0.840 → 0.711	-0.129	1.259 → 1.778	+0.519	0.299 → 0.274	-0.025	0.151 → 0.124	-0.027

Manny Machado	3B	Jacob Misiorowski + bullpen	4.25	0.714 → 0.600	-0.114	1.242 → 1.758	+0.515	0.430 → 0.394	-0.035	0.166 → 0.136	-0.029

Dustin Harris	LF	Jacob Misiorowski + bullpen	4.20	0.807 → 0.680	-0.127	0.905 → 1.274	+0.369	0.311 → 0.285	-0.026	0.079 → 0.065	-0.014

Fernando Tatis Jr.	RF	Jacob Misiorowski + bullpen	4.32	0.874 → 0.740	-0.134	1.143 → 1.642	+0.500	0.363 → 0.333	-0.030	0.146 → 0.120	-0.026

Luis Campusano	DH	Jacob Misiorowski + bullpen	3.89	0.715 → 0.603	-0.112	1.142 → 1.614	+0.472	0.385 → 0.353	-0.032	0.115 → 0.094	-0.021

Ethan Salas	C	Jacob Misiorowski + bullpen	3.33	0.625 → 0.526	-0.098	1.054 → 1.484	+0.430	0.243 → 0.223	-0.021	0.108 → 0.089	-0.019

Jackson Merrill	CF	Jacob Misiorowski + bullpen	4.10	0.807 → 0.681	-0.125	1.367 → 1.905	+0.538	0.282 → 0.258	-0.024	0.148 → 0.122	-0.026

Xander Bogaerts	SS	Jacob Misiorowski + bullpen	3.87	0.664 → 0.558	-0.105	0.962 → 1.386	+0.424	0.425 → 0.390	-0.035	0.091 → 0.074	-0.016

Jake Cronenworth	2B	Jacob Misiorowski + bullpen	3.67	0.647 → 0.545	-0.103	1.131 → 1.587	+0.456	0.327 → 0.300	-0.028	0.077 → 0.063	-0.014

SD starter against the MIL lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Robbie Ray	Starter	MIL	22.55	4.800 → 4.985	+0.185	3.710 → 3.879	+0.170	2.922 → 3.364	+0.442	0.711 → 0.674	-0.036

SD bullpen: the full relief corps (8 arms)

Exposure. Starter 22.6 batters faced, bullpen 15.2 (40.3% of the game), from the club's real 37.8 staff batters faced per game over 24 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 39.6% across 3 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Mason Miller	Closer	published staff, recent relief	57	12	19.0%	2.89
Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	published staff, recent relief	51	13	17.1%	2.60
Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	published staff, recent relief	51	11	17.1%	2.60
David Morgan	Reliever	recent relief	43	10	14.6%	2.22
Yuki Matsui	Reliever	recent relief	42	12	14.2%	2.17
Randy Vásquez	Reliever	recent relief	31	4	10.8%	1.64
Jason Adam	Reliever	recent relief	11	3	4.4%	0.67
Joe Musgrove	Reliever	recent relief	6	1	2.9%	0.43

SD relievers against the MIL lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Mason Miller	Closer	MIL (19% of relief)	2.89	0.660 → 0.687	+0.026	1.643 → 1.697	+0.054	0.426 → 0.492	+0.066	0.035 → 0.033	-0.002

Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	MIL (17% of relief)	2.60	0.953 → 0.990	+0.037	1.420 → 1.477	+0.057	0.552 → 0.639	+0.087	0.047 → 0.045	-0.003

Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	MIL (17% of relief)	2.60	0.866 → 0.899	+0.034	1.373 → 1.431	+0.058	0.426 → 0.494	+0.068	0.054 → 0.052	-0.003

David Morgan	Reliever	MIL (15% of relief)	2.22	0.490 → 0.508	+0.019	0.519 → 0.542	+0.023	0.250 → 0.288	+0.038	0.057 → 0.054	-0.003

Yuki Matsui	Reliever	MIL (14% of relief)	2.17	0.394 → 0.410	+0.016	0.546 → 0.569	+0.023	0.260 → 0.298	+0.039	0.063 → 0.060	-0.003

Randy Vásquez	Reliever	MIL (11% of relief)	1.64	0.381 → 0.395	+0.014	0.257 → 0.270	+0.012	0.112 → 0.130	+0.018	0.047 → 0.044	-0.002

Jason Adam	Reliever	MIL (4% of relief)	0.67	0.145 → 0.150	+0.005	0.121 → 0.126	+0.006	0.054 → 0.063	+0.009	0.021 → 0.020	-0.001

Joe Musgrove	Reliever	MIL (3% of relief)	0.43	0.094 → 0.098	+0.004	0.096 → 0.100	+0.004	0.039 → 0.045	+0.006	0.013 → 0.013	-0.001

MIL hitters vs Robbie Ray and the bullpen

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to MIL hitter lines. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
William Contreras	C	Robbie Ray + bullpen	4.46	0.922 → 0.873	-0.049	0.689 → 0.714	+0.025	0.560 → 0.663	+0.103	0.113 → 0.109	-0.004

Brice Turang	2B	Robbie Ray + bullpen	4.38	0.916 → 0.867	-0.049	1.141 → 1.174	+0.033	0.616 → 0.724	+0.108	0.117 → 0.112	-0.004

Jackson Chourio	LF	Robbie Ray + bullpen	4.64	1.062 → 1.006	-0.055	1.064 → 1.095	+0.032	0.529 → 0.627	+0.098	0.168 → 0.162	-0.006

Jake Bauers	1B	Robbie Ray + bullpen	4.28	0.851 → 0.805	-0.046	1.171 → 1.203	+0.032	0.690 → 0.806	+0.117	0.148 → 0.143	-0.005

Luis Lara	RF	Robbie Ray + bullpen	4.06	0.846 → 0.800	-0.046	0.913 → 0.942	+0.028	0.450 → 0.533	+0.084	0.073 → 0.070	-0.003

Joey Ortiz	3B	Robbie Ray + bullpen	3.84	0.826 → 0.782	-0.044	0.797 → 0.823	+0.026	0.445 → 0.527	+0.082	0.092 → 0.088	-0.003

Cooper Pratt	SS	Robbie Ray + bullpen	3.99	0.845 → 0.800	-0.045	0.748 → 0.773	+0.025	0.494 → 0.585	+0.091	0.079 → 0.076	-0.003

Christian Yelich	DH	Robbie Ray + bullpen	4.20	0.853 → 0.807	-0.046	1.143 → 1.174	+0.031	0.485 → 0.573	+0.088	0.094 → 0.091	-0.004

Garrett Mitchell	CF	Robbie Ray + bullpen	3.76	0.795 → 0.752	-0.043	1.235 → 1.266	+0.031	0.454 → 0.535	+0.081	0.079 → 0.076	-0.003

MIL starter against the SD lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Jacob Misiorowski	Starter	SD	21.64	3.512 → 3.570	+0.058	7.577 → 7.359	-0.218	1.913 → 2.009	+0.096	0.285 → 0.302	+0.017

MIL bullpen: the full relief corps (9 arms)

Exposure. Starter 21.6 batters faced, bullpen 15.6 (41.9% of the game), from the club's real 37.2 staff batters faced per game over 21 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 38.6% across 3 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
DL Hall	Reliever	recent relief	58	10	16.6%	2.59
Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	published staff, recent relief	50	10	14.4%	2.25
Chad Patrick	Reliever	recent relief	45	9	13.0%	2.04
JoJo Romero	Reliever	recent relief	45	9	13.0%	2.04
Antonio Senzatela	Reliever	recent relief	37	10	10.9%	1.70
Abner Uribe	Setup Man	published staff, recent relief	37	10	10.9%	1.70
Trevor Megill	Closer	published staff, recent relief	35	9	10.3%	1.61
Kyle Harrison	Reliever	recent relief	20	4	6.2%	0.98
Shane Drohan	Reliever	recent relief	14	3	4.6%	0.72

MIL relievers against the SD lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
DL Hall	Reliever	SD (17% of relief)	2.59	0.450 → 0.457	+0.007	0.657 → 0.635	-0.022	0.317 → 0.332	+0.015	0.071 → 0.075	+0.004

Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	SD (14% of relief)	2.25	0.947 → 0.961	+0.015	1.636 → 1.584	-0.052	0.595 → 0.624	+0.029	0.123 → 0.131	+0.007

Chad Patrick	Reliever	SD (13% of relief)	2.04	0.405 → 0.412	+0.006	0.435 → 0.420	-0.015	0.212 → 0.222	+0.010	0.057 → 0.060	+0.003

JoJo Romero	Reliever	SD (13% of relief)	2.04	0.439 → 0.446	+0.007	0.460 → 0.444	-0.016	0.162 → 0.170	+0.008	0.062 → 0.065	+0.004

Antonio Senzatela	Reliever	SD (11% of relief)	1.70	0.386 → 0.392	+0.006	0.335 → 0.323	-0.012	0.144 → 0.151	+0.007	0.044 → 0.047	+0.003

Abner Uribe	Setup Man	SD (11% of relief)	1.70	0.787 → 0.799	+0.012	1.141 → 1.103	-0.038	0.278 → 0.291	+0.014	0.036 → 0.038	+0.002

Trevor Megill	Closer	SD (10% of relief)	1.61	0.625 → 0.635	+0.010	1.202 → 1.163	-0.039	0.210 → 0.221	+0.011	0.012 → 0.013	+0.001

Kyle Harrison	Reliever	SD (6% of relief)	0.98	0.224 → 0.228	+0.003	0.265 → 0.256	-0.009	0.074 → 0.077	+0.004	0.034 → 0.036	+0.002

Shane Drohan	Reliever	SD (5% of relief)	0.72	0.162 → 0.165	+0.003	0.169 → 0.163	-0.006	0.061 → 0.064	+0.003	0.020 → 0.022	+0.001

Measured from published artifacts and stored KPI values. Nothing recomputed. Per-player adjustments are a measurement of the catalog, not the published line.