MLB Prediction System

Game Forensics

2026-10-03 · per game, per club, per hitter

slate 2026-10-03games 4

Per game

Every stage, every club edge

Each game expands to show the four forecast stages, the gates, the club-level KPI edges the model consumed and both lineups with their strongest readings. Composite z averages a hitter's KPI standard scores; a positive number means above the qualified-population mean on balance.

ATL @ LAD · final 3-5

Club KPI edges

KPI	ATL	LAD	Edge (H-A)	A spread	H spread
batter_barrel_rate_vs_breaking	+0.569	+0.001	-0.568	1.0755	0.5884
batter_barrel_rate_vs_fastball	+0.283	+0.652	+0.369	1.003	1.0501
batter_barrel_rate_vs_lhp	+0.046	+0.549	+0.503	0.9369	0.7375
batter_barrel_rate_vs_offspeed	+0.495	+0.575	+0.080	0.9105	0.904
batter_barrel_rate_vs_rhp	+0.614	+0.416	-0.198	1.0256	0.9621
batter_bat_speed	+0.510	-0.051	-0.561	0.9824	0.575
batter_contact_rate_vs_breaking	-0.058	-0.004	+0.054	0.6075	0.9499
batter_contact_xwoba	+0.383	+0.674	+0.291	1.0961	1.0153
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_breaking	+0.385	+0.184	-0.201	0.8459	0.761
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_fastball	+0.261	+0.831	+0.571	0.925	1.1149
batter_exit_velocity_vs_fastball	+0.346	+0.641	+0.294	0.7458	0.7096
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball	+0.286	+0.480	+0.194	0.9092	0.9693
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_slider	+0.143	+0.752	+0.608	0.6787	0.8428
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking	+0.218	-0.070	-0.288	1.181	0.9187
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball	+0.358	+0.559	+0.200	0.9921	0.8229
batter_home_run_rate	+0.490	+0.459	-0.031	0.8781	0.7683
batter_strikeout_rate	+0.180	+0.378	+0.198	0.898	0.8355
batter_walk_rate	-0.334	+0.501	+0.835	0.791	0.7457
batter_whiff_rate_vs_breaking	+0.255	+0.170	-0.085	0.6299	0.9349
batter_whiff_rate_vs_fastball	-0.077	+0.268	+0.344	0.7415	0.8894
batter_whiff_rate_vs_lhp	+0.295	+0.234	-0.061	0.8577	1.1983
batter_whiff_rate_vs_offspeed	+0.507	+0.206	-0.301	0.8415	0.8871
batter_whiff_rate_vs_rhp	+0.049	+0.231	+0.182	0.5799	0.8617
pitcher_barrel_rate_allowed	-0.321	+0.652	+0.972	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_lhh	-1.000	+0.668	+1.669	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_rhh	+0.447	+0.339	-0.108	-	-
pitcher_contact_xwoba_allowed	+0.660	+0.128	-0.532	-	-
pitcher_ground_ball_rate_induced	-1.838	+0.396	+2.234	-	-
pitcher_hard_hit_rate_allowed	+0.258	+1.153	+0.895	-	-
pitcher_home_run_rate_allowed	+0.129	+0.877	+0.748	-	-
pitcher_release_speed	+0.349	+1.233	+0.884	-	-
pitcher_strikeout_rate	+0.920	+1.642	+0.721	-	-
pitcher_walk_rate	+0.496	+2.200	+1.704	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate	+0.834	+1.568	+0.733	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_breaking	+0.000	-0.292	-0.292	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_fastball	+2.130	+0.971	-1.159	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_lhh	+1.368	+1.435	+0.067	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_rhh	+0.174	+1.307	+1.133	-	-

Lineups and their strongest readings

Batter	Pos	Proj PA	Composite z	Three strongest KPI readings
ATL lineup vs Tarik Skubal
1. Drake Baldwin	DH	4.65	+0.703	barrel_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+2.13), barrel_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+1.90), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.65)
2. Ronald Acuña Jr.	RF	4.55	+0.530	barrel_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.67), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.58), contact_xwoba Very good (+1.41)
3. Ozzie Albies	2B	4.45	-0.363	ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+2.18), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-2.04), contact_xwoba Poor (-1.73)
4. Matt Olson	1B	4.35	+0.964	home_run_rate Very good (+2.44), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+2.10), barrel_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+1.86)
5. Michael Harris II	CF	4.25	+0.428	barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+1.98), walk_rate Poor (-1.90), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Very good (+1.44)
6. Mauricio Dubón	LF	4.15	-0.095	whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+2.29), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+1.92), strikeout_rate Very good (+1.72)
7. Austin Riley	3B	4.05	+0.135	strikeout_rate Poor (-1.66), bat_speed Very good (+1.58), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-1.36)
8. Sean Murphy	C	3.98	+0.019	whiff_rate_vs_fastball Average (+0.44), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Average (+0.00), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Average (+0.00)
9. Ha-Seong Kim	SS	3.90	+0.009	barrel_rate_vs_lhp Below average (-0.78), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Good (+0.76), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Average (+0.22)
LAD lineup vs Dylan Dodd
1. Mookie Betts	SS	4.65	+0.592	whiff_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+2.45), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.95), strikeout_rate Very good (+1.91)
2. Shohei Ohtani	DH	4.55	+0.902	contact_xwoba_vs_fastball Very good (+2.84), contact_xwoba Very good (+2.75), barrel_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+2.67)
3. Will Smith	C	4.45	+0.775	ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+2.08), contact_xwoba_vs_fastball Very good (+1.81), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Very good (+1.70)
4. Freddie Freeman	1B	4.35	+0.191	whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+1.33), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Good (+1.04), contact_xwoba Good (+0.83)
5. Teoscar Hernández	LF	4.25	+0.079	whiff_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-1.43), barrel_rate_vs_lhp Good (+1.34), contact_xwoba Good (+1.24)
6. Kyle Tucker	RF	4.15	+0.162	ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Very good (+2.24), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Poor (-1.42), walk_rate Very good (+1.35)
7. Andy Pages	CF	4.05	+0.387	ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Very good (+1.31), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Good (+0.90), whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Good (+0.79)
8. Max Muncy	3B	3.98	+0.515	ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.89), contact_xwoba_vs_fastball Very good (+1.71), barrel_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.67)
9. Tommy Edman	2B	3.90	-0.353	hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Below average (-1.22), barrel_rate_vs_breaking Below average (-0.93), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Below average (-0.92)

CHW @ CLE · final 3-0

Club KPI edges

KPI	CHW	CLE	Edge (H-A)	A spread	H spread
batter_barrel_rate_vs_breaking	+0.340	-0.389	-0.728	0.9993	0.7496
batter_barrel_rate_vs_fastball	+0.363	-0.754	-1.117	1.2464	0.6318
batter_barrel_rate_vs_lhp	+0.677	-0.570	-1.246	1.0534	0.8079
batter_barrel_rate_vs_offspeed	+0.905	-0.543	-1.448	1.0758	0.9766
batter_barrel_rate_vs_rhp	+0.413	-0.615	-1.029	1.1801	0.6493
batter_bat_speed	+0.172	-0.611	-0.783	1.0699	1.3692
batter_contact_rate_vs_breaking	-0.285	+0.401	+0.686	0.9948	1.484
batter_contact_xwoba	+0.476	-0.509	-0.985	0.9343	0.7107
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_breaking	+0.326	-0.399	-0.725	0.836	0.9342
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_fastball	+0.450	-0.566	-1.016	0.8973	0.5929
batter_exit_velocity_vs_fastball	+0.333	-0.445	-0.778	0.715	0.9518
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball	+0.073	+0.512	+0.440	1.2919	0.6321
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_slider	+0.052	-0.227	-0.279	1.024	0.6936
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking	+0.346	-0.394	-0.741	0.9914	1.0898
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball	+0.328	-0.699	-1.028	0.7103	1.32
batter_home_run_rate	+0.588	-0.293	-0.881	1.1071	0.8169
batter_strikeout_rate	-0.545	+0.672	+1.217	1.1058	0.9243
batter_walk_rate	+0.322	+0.150	-0.172	1.2924	1.191
batter_whiff_rate_vs_breaking	-0.306	+0.716	+1.022	1.1187	1.0823
batter_whiff_rate_vs_fastball	-0.719	+0.608	+1.327	1.3496	0.9244
batter_whiff_rate_vs_lhp	-0.289	+0.599	+0.889	1.2622	0.9263
batter_whiff_rate_vs_offspeed	-0.378	+0.562	+0.940	0.9783	1.0002
batter_whiff_rate_vs_rhp	-0.416	+0.813	+1.229	1.1459	0.9784
pitcher_barrel_rate_allowed	+0.861	+2.121	+1.260	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_lhh	+0.000	+1.405	+1.405	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_rhh	+0.000	+1.726	+1.726	-	-
pitcher_contact_xwoba_allowed	+0.000	+0.784	+0.784	-	-
pitcher_ground_ball_rate_induced	+0.000	+0.352	+0.352	-	-
pitcher_hard_hit_rate_allowed	+0.000	+1.537	+1.537	-	-
pitcher_home_run_rate_allowed	+0.000	+1.016	+1.016	-	-
pitcher_release_speed	-0.162	+0.204	+0.366	-	-
pitcher_strikeout_rate	+0.000	+0.713	+0.713	-	-
pitcher_walk_rate	+0.000	+1.306	+1.306	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate	+0.000	-0.078	-0.078	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_breaking	+1.116	-1.597	-2.714	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_fastball	+0.000	+0.526	+0.526	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_lhh	+0.000	+0.245	+0.245	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_rhh	+1.977	-0.282	-2.259	-	-

Lineups and their strongest readings

Batter	Pos	Proj PA	Composite z	Three strongest KPI readings
CHW lineup vs Parker Messick
1. Chase Meidroth	2B	4.65	-0.270	bat_speed Poor (-2.07), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Good (+1.29), whiff_rate_vs_breaking Good (+1.14)
2. Randal Grichuk	LF	4.55	+0.531	barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+2.83), barrel_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+1.91), walk_rate Poor (-1.55)
3. Miguel Vargas	3B	4.45	+1.043	walk_rate Very good (+2.02), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.83), barrel_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+1.69)
4. Munetaka Murakami	1B	4.35	+0.714	whiff_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-3.27), barrel_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+3.16), barrel_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+3.14)
5. Tommy Pham	DH	4.25	+0.000	barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Average (+0.00), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Average (+0.00), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Average (+0.00)
6. Brenton Doyle	CF	4.15	-0.367	strikeout_rate Poor (-1.55), whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Poor (-1.49), whiff_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-1.40)
7. Kyle Teel	C	4.05	-0.090	whiff_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.07), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Average (+0.00), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Average (+0.00)
8. Braden Montgomery	RF	3.98	-0.458	ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.61), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Poor (-1.34), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Below average (-1.28)
9. Colson Montgomery	SS	3.90	+0.046	strikeout_rate Poor (-2.35), contact_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-2.24), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.12)
CLE lineup vs Hagen Smith
1. Steven Kwan	CF	4.65	-0.344	hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-4.00), bat_speed Poor (-3.47), contact_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+3.09)
2. José Ramírez	3B	4.55	+0.275	whiff_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+2.21), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+1.87), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.70)
3. Chase DeLauter	RF	4.45	+0.480	contact_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+2.31), whiff_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+1.80), whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+1.62)
4. Jo Adell	DH	4.35	+0.156	bat_speed Very good (+2.16), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+1.68), walk_rate Poor (-1.40)
5. Angel Martínez	LF	4.25	+0.078	walk_rate Poor (-2.05), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Good (+1.16), barrel_rate_vs_breaking Good (+1.12)
6. David Fry	1B	4.15	-0.220	ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.30), contact_rate_vs_breaking Below average (-1.23), contact_xwoba_vs_fastball Below average (-1.12)
7. Travis Bazzana	2B	4.05	-0.267	hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-1.41), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Poor (-1.41), barrel_rate_vs_breaking Below average (-1.09)
8. Austin Hedges	C	3.98	-0.499	ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Poor (-1.79), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Poor (-1.35), exit_velocity_vs_fastball Poor (-1.32)
9. Brayan Rocchio	SS	3.90	-0.543	barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Poor (-1.60), barrel_rate_vs_rhp Poor (-1.47), barrel_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-1.35)

NYY @ TB · final 0-1

Club KPI edges

KPI	NYY	TB	Edge (H-A)	A spread	H spread
batter_barrel_rate_vs_breaking	+0.160	-0.258	-0.418	0.6484	0.9502
batter_barrel_rate_vs_fastball	+0.535	-0.425	-0.960	1.0114	1.1814
batter_barrel_rate_vs_lhp	-0.127	-0.765	-0.638	0.4398	1.0528
batter_barrel_rate_vs_offspeed	+0.346	-0.416	-0.762	0.7525	0.7863
batter_barrel_rate_vs_rhp	+0.606	-0.249	-0.855	0.7343	1.0406
batter_bat_speed	+0.283	-0.366	-0.649	0.6492	1.7612
batter_contact_rate_vs_breaking	-0.567	+1.009	+1.576	0.8167	1.1405
batter_contact_xwoba	+0.481	-0.519	-1.000	0.8644	1.0811
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_breaking	+0.437	-0.198	-0.634	0.7864	1.0934
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_fastball	+0.494	-0.707	-1.200	0.9072	1.0416
batter_exit_velocity_vs_fastball	+0.501	-0.493	-0.994	0.5451	1.5204
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball	+0.627	-0.441	-1.068	0.6488	1.3856
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_slider	+0.387	-0.130	-0.517	0.8355	1.3005
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking	+0.710	-0.364	-1.074	0.7327	1.5015
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball	+0.458	-0.638	-1.096	0.4925	1.6232
batter_home_run_rate	+0.472	-0.039	-0.511	0.8043	1.4156
batter_strikeout_rate	-0.464	+0.775	+1.239	0.9927	0.9619
batter_walk_rate	+0.548	+0.002	-0.546	0.6353	0.9119
batter_whiff_rate_vs_breaking	-0.421	+1.045	+1.466	0.7067	0.7458
batter_whiff_rate_vs_fastball	-0.261	+0.717	+0.978	1.0048	1.0174
batter_whiff_rate_vs_lhp	-0.207	+1.043	+1.250	0.8111	0.6029
batter_whiff_rate_vs_offspeed	-0.344	+0.773	+1.117	0.8469	0.8506
batter_whiff_rate_vs_rhp	-0.324	+0.836	+1.160	0.9576	0.8973
pitcher_barrel_rate_allowed	-0.929	+1.293	+2.221	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_lhh	-0.142	+1.151	+1.293	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_rhh	-1.254	+0.789	+2.043	-	-
pitcher_contact_xwoba_allowed	-0.709	+0.816	+1.524	-	-
pitcher_ground_ball_rate_induced	-1.321	+0.392	+1.713	-	-
pitcher_hard_hit_rate_allowed	-1.708	+1.555	+3.263	-	-
pitcher_home_run_rate_allowed	-1.465	+1.119	+2.584	-	-
pitcher_release_speed	+0.922	+1.126	+0.204	-	-
pitcher_strikeout_rate	+0.578	+0.770	+0.191	-	-
pitcher_walk_rate	+1.909	+2.027	+0.118	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate	-0.842	-0.104	+0.738	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_breaking	-1.183	-1.046	+0.136	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_fastball	+0.229	+1.035	+0.806	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_lhh	-0.290	+0.333	+0.623	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_rhh	-1.451	-0.683	+0.768	-	-

Lineups and their strongest readings

Batter	Pos	Proj PA	Composite z	Three strongest KPI readings
NYY lineup vs Drew Rasmussen
1. Ben Rice	DH	4.65	+0.831	home_run_rate Very good (+2.65), barrel_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+2.15), contact_xwoba_vs_fastball Very good (+2.07)
2. Cody Bellinger	LF	4.55	+0.273	ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Very good (+1.76), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Good (+1.25), strikeout_rate Good (+1.07)
3. Luis Garcia	1B	4.45	+0.000	barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Average (+0.00), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Average (+0.00), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Average (+0.00)
4. Spencer Jones	RF	4.35	+0.285	whiff_rate_vs_rhp Poor (-2.59), barrel_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+2.40), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.37)
5. George Lombard Jr.	SS	4.25	-0.030	whiff_rate_vs_fastball Below average (-1.23), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Average (+0.45), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Average (+0.10)
6. Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2B	4.15	-0.101	whiff_rate_vs_lhp Poor (-1.60), strikeout_rate Below average (-1.31), barrel_rate_vs_breaking Good (+1.05)
7. Trent Grisham	CF	4.05	+0.482	walk_rate Very good (+1.33), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Good (+1.24), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Good (+1.17)
8. Austin Wells	C	3.98	-0.068	contact_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-1.55), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.33), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Poor (-1.21)
9. Ryan McMahon	3B	3.90	-0.069	whiff_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-1.54), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.38), strikeout_rate Below average (-1.22)
TB lineup vs Gerrit Cole
1. Yandy Díaz	DH	4.65	+0.661	contact_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+3.15), whiff_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+2.60), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.15)
2. Jonathan Aranda	1B	4.55	+0.634	whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+1.78), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.75), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Very good (+1.58)
3. Junior Caminero	3B	4.45	+0.935	bat_speed Very good (+3.05), home_run_rate Very good (+2.48), exit_velocity_vs_fastball Very good (+2.08)
4. Liam Hicks	C	4.35	-0.041	whiff_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+2.27), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.10), whiff_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+2.08)
5. Chandler Simpson	LF	4.25	-1.022	hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-3.60), bat_speed Poor (-3.27), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-3.24)
6. Victor Mesa Jr.	RF	4.15	+0.300	ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Very good (+1.46), home_run_rate Good (+1.31), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Good (+1.16)
7. Jonny DeLuca	CF	4.05	-0.443	walk_rate Poor (-1.41), barrel_rate_vs_lhp Poor (-1.37), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-1.30)
8. Richie Palacios	2B	3.98	-0.296	whiff_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.31), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Poor (-1.30), contact_xwoba_vs_fastball Poor (-1.23)
9. Taylor Walls	SS	3.90	-0.910	hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-2.81), bat_speed Poor (-2.31), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Poor (-1.91)

SD @ MIL · final 2-3

Club KPI edges

KPI	SD	MIL	Edge (H-A)	A spread	H spread
batter_barrel_rate_vs_breaking	+0.076	+0.191	+0.115	0.8003	0.8158
batter_barrel_rate_vs_fastball	+0.248	+0.192	-0.056	0.7648	0.8779
batter_barrel_rate_vs_lhp	+0.026	-0.142	-0.168	0.8461	0.9009
batter_barrel_rate_vs_offspeed	+0.357	-0.013	-0.370	0.9307	0.8996
batter_barrel_rate_vs_rhp	+0.176	+0.381	+0.205	0.7713	0.8199
batter_bat_speed	+0.337	+0.499	+0.162	0.5705	0.9434
batter_contact_rate_vs_breaking	+0.003	+0.251	+0.248	0.521	0.942
batter_contact_xwoba	+0.202	+0.552	+0.350	0.8413	1.0021
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_breaking	-0.134	+0.483	+0.618	0.8715	1.0016
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_fastball	+0.364	+0.493	+0.129	0.8933	0.9509
batter_exit_velocity_vs_fastball	+0.529	+0.489	-0.039	0.861	0.8029
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball	-0.203	-0.826	-0.623	1.0355	0.6386
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_slider	-0.124	-0.734	-0.610	0.6436	1.1244
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking	+0.123	+0.519	+0.396	1.0657	0.9919
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball	+0.574	+0.505	-0.069	0.9484	0.8667
batter_home_run_rate	+0.161	-0.236	-0.397	0.6733	0.8069
batter_strikeout_rate	+0.119	-0.222	-0.341	0.3159	0.8288
batter_walk_rate	+0.186	+0.616	+0.430	0.7209	0.9329
batter_whiff_rate_vs_breaking	+0.063	-0.064	-0.127	0.3342	0.8325
batter_whiff_rate_vs_fastball	+0.038	-0.160	-0.199	0.7991	0.7821
batter_whiff_rate_vs_lhp	+0.047	+0.240	+0.194	0.4891	0.6572
batter_whiff_rate_vs_offspeed	-0.111	+0.018	+0.128	0.3907	1.0529
batter_whiff_rate_vs_rhp	-0.072	-0.199	-0.127	0.2504	0.8857
pitcher_barrel_rate_allowed	-0.124	+2.709	+2.833	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_lhh	+1.803	+2.195	+0.391	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_rhh	-1.362	+1.785	+3.147	-	-
pitcher_contact_xwoba_allowed	-0.346	+1.598	+1.944	-	-
pitcher_ground_ball_rate_induced	-1.035	+0.239	+1.274	-	-
pitcher_hard_hit_rate_allowed	+0.336	+1.597	+1.261	-	-
pitcher_home_run_rate_allowed	-0.349	+1.371	+1.720	-	-
pitcher_release_speed	-0.542	+3.401	+3.944	-	-
pitcher_strikeout_rate	-0.690	+3.341	+4.031	-	-
pitcher_walk_rate	-1.472	+1.016	+2.488	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate	-0.244	+2.911	+3.155	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_breaking	+0.252	+0.956	+0.704	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_fastball	-0.615	+4.000	+4.615	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_lhh	+0.548	+4.000	+3.452	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_rhh	-0.589	+0.914	+1.503	-	-

Lineups and their strongest readings

Batter	Pos	Proj PA	Composite z	Three strongest KPI readings
SD lineup vs Jacob Misiorowski
1. Fernando Tatis Jr.	RF	4.65	+0.710	barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+2.48), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.96), exit_velocity_vs_fastball Very good (+1.55)
2. Dustin Harris	LF	4.55	-0.012	whiff_rate_vs_fastball Good (+1.17), barrel_rate_vs_rhp Below average (-1.14), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Average (-0.31)
3. Manny Machado	3B	4.45	+0.285	hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.75), exit_velocity_vs_fastball Very good (+1.71), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Poor (-1.63)
4. Ty France	1B	4.35	+0.123	hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.64), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Below average (-1.12), home_run_rate Good (+0.83)
5. Jackson Merrill	CF	4.25	+0.621	contact_xwoba_vs_fastball Very good (+1.97), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.64), contact_xwoba Very good (+1.56)
6. Xander Bogaerts	SS	4.15	-0.151	ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.04), walk_rate Very good (+1.41), barrel_rate_vs_lhp Poor (-1.25)
7. Ethan Salas	C	4.05	+0.000	barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Average (+0.00), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Average (+0.00), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Average (+0.00)
8. Luis Campusano	DH	3.98	-0.076	walk_rate Good (+0.95), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Below average (-0.94), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Good (+0.93)
9. Jake Cronenworth	2B	3.90	-0.458	barrel_rate_vs_lhp Poor (-1.52), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Below average (-1.38), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Good (+1.24)
MIL lineup vs Robbie Ray
1. Jackson Chourio	LF	4.65	+0.527	exit_velocity_vs_fastball Very good (+1.55), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.49), barrel_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+1.44)
2. Brice Turang	2B	4.55	+0.313	hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.68), walk_rate Very good (+1.56), contact_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.39)
3. William Contreras	C	4.45	+0.312	contact_rate_vs_breaking Good (+1.28), strikeout_rate Good (+1.24), exit_velocity_vs_fastball Good (+0.97)
4. Jake Bauers	1B	4.35	+0.658	walk_rate Very good (+2.75), contact_xwoba Very good (+1.77), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.68)
5. Christian Yelich	DH	4.25	-0.272	ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.10), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Poor (-1.84), whiff_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-1.59)
6. Cooper Pratt	SS	4.15	-0.267	hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Below average (-1.14), home_run_rate Below average (-1.13), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Below average (-1.07)
7. Luis Lara	RF	4.05	-0.291	ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Poor (-2.26), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+1.38), barrel_rate_vs_lhp Poor (-1.37)
8. Garrett Mitchell	CF	3.98	+0.227	contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Very good (+2.32), whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Poor (-2.25), contact_xwoba Very good (+2.20)
9. Joey Ortiz	3B	3.90	-0.222	ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Poor (-1.42), contact_rate_vs_breaking Good (+1.23), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Below average (-1.16)

Edge is home club minus away club on that KPI, in standard deviations, after plate-appearance weighting. Spread is the dispersion inside a club, which a mean alone discards and which is roughly three times larger than the between-game variation of the mean itself.
generated 2026-10-06T14:08:05.604056+00:00 · kpi_slate_report_v3