Each game expands to show the four forecast stages, the gates, the club-level KPI edges the model consumed and both lineups with their strongest readings. Composite z averages a hitter's KPI standard scores; a positive number means above the qualified-population mean on balance.
| KPI | PHI | ATL | Edge (H-A) | A spread | H spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| batter_barrel_rate_vs_breaking | -0.037 | +0.537 | +0.575 | 1.0113 | 1.1009 |
| batter_barrel_rate_vs_fastball | -0.200 | +0.253 | +0.453 | 0.8739 | 1.0102 |
| batter_barrel_rate_vs_lhp | -0.059 | +0.131 | +0.189 | 0.7086 | 0.8925 |
| batter_barrel_rate_vs_offspeed | +0.320 | +0.536 | +0.216 | 1.2177 | 0.9042 |
| batter_barrel_rate_vs_rhp | -0.038 | +0.604 | +0.642 | 1.0095 | 1.0342 |
| batter_bat_speed | +0.227 | +0.493 | +0.266 | 0.8166 | 0.9981 |
| batter_contact_rate_vs_breaking | +0.174 | -0.008 | -0.183 | 1.2866 | 0.6179 |
| batter_contact_xwoba | +0.282 | +0.375 | +0.093 | 0.9972 | 1.1043 |
| batter_contact_xwoba_vs_breaking | +0.069 | +0.352 | +0.283 | 0.8457 | 0.8764 |
| batter_contact_xwoba_vs_fastball | +0.305 | +0.262 | -0.043 | 1.089 | 0.9254 |
| batter_exit_velocity_vs_fastball | +0.345 | +0.408 | +0.062 | 0.8778 | 0.7416 |
| batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball | -0.332 | +0.336 | +0.668 | 1.1951 | 0.9116 |
| batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_slider | +0.154 | +0.162 | +0.009 | 1.1539 | 0.678 |
| batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking | +0.116 | +0.233 | +0.116 | 0.6198 | 1.1807 |
| batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball | +0.456 | +0.437 | -0.018 | 0.5322 | 0.9908 |
| batter_home_run_rate | -0.028 | +0.488 | +0.516 | 1.2385 | 0.8824 |
| batter_strikeout_rate | +0.118 | +0.161 | +0.043 | 0.8326 | 0.9042 |
| batter_walk_rate | +0.001 | -0.300 | -0.302 | 1.3973 | 0.8272 |
| batter_whiff_rate_vs_breaking | +0.188 | +0.345 | +0.158 | 1.1087 | 0.6499 |
| batter_whiff_rate_vs_fastball | +0.082 | -0.144 | -0.226 | 0.6098 | 0.746 |
| batter_whiff_rate_vs_lhp | +0.057 | +0.214 | +0.157 | 1.1158 | 0.8448 |
| batter_whiff_rate_vs_offspeed | +0.042 | +0.620 | +0.579 | 0.8942 | 0.8404 |
| batter_whiff_rate_vs_rhp | +0.072 | +0.086 | +0.014 | 0.9193 | 0.5839 |
| pitcher_barrel_rate_allowed | -1.290 | +0.000 | +1.290 | - | - |
| pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_lhh | -0.744 | +0.000 | +0.744 | - | - |
| pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_rhh | -1.250 | +0.000 | +1.250 | - | - |
| pitcher_contact_xwoba_allowed | -0.778 | +0.000 | +0.778 | - | - |
| pitcher_ground_ball_rate_induced | -0.243 | +0.000 | +0.243 | - | - |
| pitcher_hard_hit_rate_allowed | -0.592 | +0.000 | +0.592 | - | - |
| pitcher_home_run_rate_allowed | -2.667 | +0.000 | +2.667 | - | - |
| pitcher_release_speed | -1.728 | +0.000 | +1.728 | - | - |
| pitcher_strikeout_rate | +0.281 | +0.000 | -0.281 | - | - |
| pitcher_walk_rate | +0.528 | +0.000 | -0.528 | - | - |
| pitcher_whiff_rate | +0.513 | +0.000 | -0.513 | - | - |
| pitcher_whiff_rate_breaking | +1.361 | +0.000 | -1.361 | - | - |
| pitcher_whiff_rate_fastball | -0.924 | +0.000 | +0.924 | - | - |
| pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_lhh | +0.453 | +0.000 | -0.453 | - | - |
| pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_rhh | +0.529 | +0.000 | -0.529 | - | - |
| Batter | Pos | Proj PA | Composite z | Three strongest KPI readings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI lineup vs Ray Kerr | ||||
| 1. Trea Turner | SS | 4.65 | -0.315 | contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Poor (-1.20), barrel_rate_vs_breaking Below average (-0.98), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Below average (-0.97) |
| 2. Kyle Schwarber | DH | 4.55 | +0.892 | barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+3.35), home_run_rate Very good (+2.72), contact_xwoba Very good (+2.38) |
| 3. Bryce Harper | RF | 4.45 | +0.411 | walk_rate Very good (+2.35), contact_xwoba_vs_fastball Very good (+2.01), contact_xwoba Very good (+1.41) |
| 4. Bryson Stott | 2B | 4.35 | +0.171 | whiff_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.88), whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+1.54), contact_rate_vs_breaking Good (+1.31) |
| 5. Alec Bohm | 1B | 4.25 | +0.306 | contact_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+2.25), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+1.77), whiff_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.47) |
| 6. Brandon Marsh | LF | 4.15 | +0.050 | ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Very good (+2.12), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Poor (-1.72), barrel_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.35) |
| 7. Edmundo Sosa | 3B | 4.05 | -0.141 | walk_rate Poor (-1.84), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Below average (-0.95), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Good (+0.83) |
| 8. Justin Crawford | CF | 3.98 | -0.473 | ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.81), home_run_rate Poor (-1.82), whiff_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.75) |
| 9. J.T. Realmuto | C | 3.90 | -0.094 | barrel_rate_vs_lhp Below average (-1.14), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Below average (-0.85), barrel_rate_vs_fastball Below average (-0.82) |
| ATL lineup vs Aaron Nola | ||||
| 1. Michael Harris II | CF | 4.65 | +0.428 | barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+1.98), walk_rate Poor (-1.90), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Very good (+1.44) |
| 2. Ronald Acuña Jr. | RF | 4.55 | +0.530 | barrel_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.67), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.58), contact_xwoba Very good (+1.41) |
| 3. Matt Olson | 1B | 4.45 | +0.964 | home_run_rate Very good (+2.44), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+2.10), barrel_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+1.86) |
| 4. Drake Baldwin | DH | 4.35 | +0.703 | barrel_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+2.13), barrel_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+1.90), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.65) |
| 5. Mauricio Dubón | SS | 4.25 | -0.095 | whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+2.29), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+1.92), strikeout_rate Very good (+1.72) |
| 6. Ozzie Albies | 2B | 4.15 | -0.363 | ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+2.18), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-2.04), contact_xwoba Poor (-1.73) |
| 7. Mike Yastrzemski | LF | 4.05 | +0.126 | whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Good (+1.10), whiff_rate_vs_breaking Good (+0.86), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Good (+0.72) |
| 8. Austin Riley | 3B | 3.98 | +0.135 | strikeout_rate Poor (-1.66), bat_speed Very good (+1.58), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-1.36) |
| 9. Sean Murphy | C | 3.90 | +0.019 | whiff_rate_vs_fastball Average (+0.44), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Average (+0.00), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Average (+0.00) |