Nightly self-improvement · slate 2026-09-29
Generated 2026-09-30T05:00:00.007109-04:00 ET from official finals (mlb-api). Every learning stage is listed with what it did. "Blocked" means it wanted to act and a safety rule stopped it; "nothing to learn" means it had no eligible evidence.
Slate
2026-09-29
status completed
Winners
4/4
Brier 0.2298
Learned or changed
0
of 5 stages
Blocked
0
wanted to act and could not
Release
v4.31.0
DRIFT
What each learning stage did
| Stage | Outcome | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| KPI settlement | failed | did not run |
| Bullpen usage model | nothing to learn | No pregame bullpen forecasts to settle. Refit: not attempted. |
| Adaptive parameter proposal (Luna) | nothing to learn | skipped_open_rollback_monitor: |
| Auto-apply | nothing to learn | no_promotable_candidate |
| Code agent | nothing to learn | disabled_by_config: code changes are made on the development host, never in the container. |
Games
| Game | Predicted | Actual | Home win prob | Result | Main driver | Starters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS@NYY | 2-4 | 0-9 | 0.540 | hit | Payton Tolle: 17 proj / 14 real outs; Cam Schlittler: 18 proj / 19 real outs | |
| CHC@SD | 4-5 | 0-8 | 0.508 | hit | Matthew Boyd: 18 proj / 12 real outs; Michael King: 17 proj / 21 real outs | |
| CHW@HOU | 6-5 | 6-3 | 0.470 | hit | Hagen Smith: 15 proj / 9 real outs; AJ Blubaugh: 15 proj / 2 real outs | |
| PHI@ATL | 2-3 | 3-5 | 0.505 | hit | Jesús Luzardo: 20 proj / 15 real outs; Chris Sale: 19 proj / 19 real outs |
Day over day
Rolling evidence window against the prior night. Associations, not causal proof.
| Metric | Prior | Current | Change | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| brier_score | 0.2462 | 0.2457 | -0.0005 | improved |
| accuracy | 0.5726 | 0.5897 | 0.0171 | improved |
| team_run_mae | 2.5684 | 2.5726 | 0.0042 | regressed |
| total_run_mae | 3.8034 | 3.7436 | -0.0598 | improved |
| calibration_error | 0.0862 | 0.0985 | 0.0123 | regressed |
| starter_er_mae | 1.7965 | 1.7735 | -0.0230 | improved |
| starter_outs_mae | 4.0442 | 4.0684 | 0.0242 | regressed |
Calibration produced for the next slate
| Metric | Scale used | Measured | Rows | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No calibration produced. | ||||
Luna KPI candidates and their promotion gate
Promotion needs 400+ prospective rows over 5+ slates after the proposal, with a gain interval above zero. Only verified pregame forecasts count; local replays never do.
| KPI | Status | Target | Proposed | Rows | Slates | Gain interval | Progress |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| luna_pitcher_release_speed_vs_righthanded_starters | shadow | SO | 20260923 | 330/400 | 5/5 | [-0.0007, 0.0007] | |
| luna_pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_rhh_righthanded_starters | shadow | HR | 20260923 | 330/400 | 5/5 | [-0.0004, 0.0049] | |
| luna_batter_contact_rate_vs_breaking_righthanded_starters | shadow | H | 20260923 | 330/400 | 5/5 | [-0.0045, 0.0044] | |
| luna_batter_contact_rate_vs_breaking_left_handed_starters_for_strikeouts | shadow | SO | 20260924 | 122/400 | 4/5 | [-0.0027, 0.0021] | |
| luna_pitcher_contact_xwoba_allowed_vs_righthanded_starters_for_strikeouts | shadow | SO | 20260924 | 122/400 | 4/5 | [-0.0001, 0.0000] | |
| luna_pitcher_whiff_rate_breaking_vs_left_handed_hitters_for_hits | shadow | H | 20260924 | 122/400 | 4/5 | [-0.0056, -0.0011] | |
| luna_pitcher_home_run_rate_vs_righthanded_starters | shadow | HR | 20260925 | 122/400 | 4/5 | [-0.0010, 0.0056] | |
| luna_batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball_vs_lhp_for_home_runs | shadow | HR | 20260926 | 86/400 | 3/5 | [-0.0001, -0.0000] | |
| luna_pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_right_handed_starters_for_batter_strikeouts | shadow | SO | 20260929 | 51/400 | 2/5 | [–, –] | |
| luna_batter_whiff_rate_vs_breaking_right_handed_starters_for_hits | shadow | H | 20260929 | 51/400 | 2/5 | [–, –] | |
| luna_batter_walk_rate_vs_righthanded_pitchers_for_home_runs | retired | HR | 20260924 | 0/400 | 0/5 | [–, –] |
Operator actions the cycle asked for (0)
Changes to code or a model recipe are never made by the nightly cycle. These are the measured findings that need one.
| Priority | Owner | Finding | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| No operator actions requested. | |||
Luna post-mortem
Luna (gpt-5.6-luna) post-mortem, status received. Full analysis.
# 1. Evidence receipt and gaps ## Sources received All seven manifest entries were checked: | Source | Status | Purpose | Receipt finding | |---|---:|---|---| | `prediction review` — `/app/output/reports/prediction_review_20260929.json` | loaded | Official outcomes and scoring errors | Present, 102,938 bytes | | `forensic deep audit` — `/app/output/reports/PREDICTION_SYSTEM_DEEP_AUDIT_20260929.json` | loaded | Probability, provenance, starter, and decision contracts | Present, 75,641 bytes | | `continuous learning` — `/app/output/learning/continuous_learning_daily_20260929.json` | loaded | Stage quality, calibration, lineage, score distribution, starter comparisons | Present, 681,575 bytes | | `detailed report` — `/app/output/reports/detailed_20260929.html` | loaded | Full game and simulation rendering | Present, 96,839 bytes | | `ultra detailed player audit` — `/app/output/reports/20260929_ultra_detailed_player_audit.html` | loaded | Player-level prediction trace | Present, 8,510,517 bytes | | `structural audit` — `/app/output/reports/audit_report_20260929.html` | loaded | Invariant findings | Present, 518,619 bytes | | `integrity revision audit` — `/app/output/reports/audit_report_20260929_integrity_revision.html` | **missing** | Post-Luna remediation proof for immutable revision artifacts | Missing; byte count is null | ## Slate coverage All four listed games were reviewed: 1. BOS@NYY 2. CHC@SD 3. CHW@HOU 4. PHI@ATL Coverage is internally complete for the game-level