Each game expands to show the four forecast stages, the gates, the club-level KPI edges the model consumed and both lineups with their strongest readings. Composite z averages a hitter's KPI standard scores; a positive number means above the qualified-population mean on balance.
| Stage | Away runs | Home runs | Home win | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Production baseline | 4.000 | 5.000 | 0.593 | what the system would have published |
| KPI-only forecast | 6.141 | 5.238 | 0.646 | 44 KPI features alone, no baseline input |
| Blended | 4.728 | 5.090 | 0.593 | at the fitted weights |
| Published | 4 | 5 | 0.579 | after rounding and reconciliation |
| KPI | CLE | TB | Edge (H-A) | A spread | H spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| batter_barrel_rate_vs_breaking | -0.435 | -0.114 | +0.322 | 0.7367 | 0.9619 |
| batter_barrel_rate_vs_fastball | -0.586 | -0.525 | +0.060 | 0.7222 | 1.1002 |
| batter_barrel_rate_vs_lhp | -0.408 | -0.636 | -0.228 | 0.8288 | 1.0607 |
| batter_barrel_rate_vs_offspeed | -0.472 | -0.460 | +0.011 | 1.031 | 0.7761 |
| batter_barrel_rate_vs_rhp | -0.571 | -0.311 | +0.260 | 0.6969 | 0.9417 |
| batter_bat_speed | -0.328 | +0.079 | +0.407 | 1.4401 | 1.7907 |
| batter_contact_rate_vs_breaking | +0.349 | +0.831 | +0.482 | 1.4508 | 1.2349 |
| batter_contact_xwoba | -0.276 | -0.383 | -0.107 | 0.7658 | 1.121 |
| batter_contact_xwoba_vs_breaking | -0.288 | -0.032 | +0.256 | 0.9236 | 1.1772 |
| batter_contact_xwoba_vs_fastball | -0.144 | -0.528 | -0.385 | 0.7043 | 1.0627 |
| batter_exit_velocity_vs_fastball | -0.124 | -0.424 | -0.301 | 0.9165 | 1.504 |
| batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball | +0.498 | -0.625 | -1.123 | 0.5721 | 1.3077 |
| batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_slider | +0.025 | -0.653 | -0.678 | 0.5665 | 1.0563 |
| batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking | -0.274 | -0.113 | +0.161 | 1.1034 | 1.5247 |
| batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball | -0.396 | -0.422 | -0.027 | 1.4056 | 1.5169 |
| batter_home_run_rate | -0.244 | -0.217 | +0.026 | 0.8343 | 1.3599 |
| batter_strikeout_rate | +0.598 | +0.381 | -0.217 | 0.9662 | 1.1005 |
| batter_walk_rate | -0.036 | -0.420 | -0.384 | 1.1363 | 0.9845 |
| batter_whiff_rate_vs_breaking | +0.719 | +0.612 | -0.108 | 1.0989 | 1.0816 |
| batter_whiff_rate_vs_fastball | +0.674 | +0.548 | -0.126 | 0.8398 | 0.8421 |
| batter_whiff_rate_vs_lhp | +0.563 | +0.766 | +0.203 | 0.9542 | 0.8055 |
| batter_whiff_rate_vs_offspeed | +0.774 | +0.393 | -0.382 | 0.9144 | 1.0682 |
| batter_whiff_rate_vs_rhp | +0.856 | +0.518 | -0.338 | 0.9775 | 0.9702 |
| pitcher_barrel_rate_allowed | -0.525 | +1.293 | +1.818 | - | - |
| pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_lhh | -0.794 | +1.151 | +1.944 | - | - |
| pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_rhh | -0.204 | +0.789 | +0.994 | - | - |
| pitcher_contact_xwoba_allowed | -0.712 | +0.816 | +1.528 | - | - |
| pitcher_ground_ball_rate_induced | +0.483 | +0.392 | -0.091 | - | - |
| pitcher_hard_hit_rate_allowed | +0.449 | +1.555 | +1.105 | - | - |
| pitcher_home_run_rate_allowed | -0.289 | +1.119 | +1.409 | - | - |
| pitcher_release_speed | -1.671 | +1.126 | +2.797 | - | - |
| pitcher_strikeout_rate | -0.140 | +0.770 | +0.910 | - | - |
| pitcher_walk_rate | +1.346 | +2.027 | +0.681 | - | - |
| pitcher_whiff_rate | -0.662 | -0.104 | +0.558 | - | - |
| pitcher_whiff_rate_breaking | -0.713 | -1.046 | -0.333 | - | - |
| pitcher_whiff_rate_fastball | -0.275 | +1.035 | +1.310 | - | - |
| pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_lhh | -0.087 | +0.333 | +0.419 | - | - |
| pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_rhh | -0.880 | -0.683 | +0.198 | - | - |
| Batter | Pos | Proj PA | Composite z | Three strongest KPI readings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE lineup vs Drew Rasmussen | ||||
| 1. Steven Kwan | CF | 4.65 | -0.344 | hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-4.00), bat_speed Poor (-3.47), contact_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+3.09) |
| 2. José Ramírez | 3B | 4.55 | +0.275 | whiff_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+2.21), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+1.87), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.70) |
| 3. Chase DeLauter | RF | 4.45 | +0.480 | contact_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+2.31), whiff_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+1.80), whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+1.62) |
| 4. Jo Adell | DH | 4.35 | +0.156 | bat_speed Very good (+2.16), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+1.68), walk_rate Poor (-1.40) |
| 5. Nathaniel Lowe | 1B | 4.25 | +0.251 | whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Good (+1.13), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Good (+1.01), bat_speed Good (+0.99) |
| 6. Angel Martínez | LF | 4.15 | +0.078 | walk_rate Poor (-2.05), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Good (+1.16), barrel_rate_vs_breaking Good (+1.12) |
| 7. Travis Bazzana | 2B | 4.05 | -0.267 | hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-1.41), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Poor (-1.41), barrel_rate_vs_breaking Below average (-1.09) |
| 8. Patrick Bailey | C | 3.98 | +0.033 | ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Good (+0.95), strikeout_rate Below average (-0.88), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Good (+0.84) |
| 9. Brayan Rocchio | SS | 3.90 | -0.543 | barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Poor (-1.60), barrel_rate_vs_rhp Poor (-1.47), barrel_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-1.35) |
| TB lineup vs Foster Griffin | ||||
| 1. Yandy Díaz | DH | 4.65 | +0.661 | contact_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+3.15), whiff_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+2.60), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.15) |
| 2. Jonathan Aranda | 1B | 4.55 | +0.634 | whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+1.78), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.75), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Very good (+1.58) |
| 3. Junior Caminero | 3B | 4.45 | +0.935 | bat_speed Very good (+3.05), home_run_rate Very good (+2.48), exit_velocity_vs_fastball Very good (+2.08) |
| 4. Ryan Vilade | RF | 4.35 | +0.147 | bat_speed Very good (+1.52), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Good (+1.05), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Good (+0.72) |
| 5. Jonny DeLuca | CF | 4.25 | -0.443 | walk_rate Poor (-1.41), barrel_rate_vs_lhp Poor (-1.37), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-1.30) |
| 6. Chandler Simpson | LF | 4.15 | -1.022 | hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-3.60), bat_speed Poor (-3.27), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-3.24) |
| 7. Nick Fortes | C | 4.05 | -0.521 | exit_velocity_vs_fastball Poor (-1.83), walk_rate Poor (-1.67), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.58) |
| 8. Jorge Mateo | 2B | 3.98 | -0.470 | whiff_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-1.52), whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Poor (-1.40), strikeout_rate Below average (-1.39) |
| 9. Taylor Walls | SS | 3.90 | -0.910 | hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-2.81), bat_speed Poor (-2.31), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Poor (-1.91) |