MLB Prediction System

Game Forensics

2026-10-07 · per game, per club, per hitter

slate 2026-10-07games 4

Per game

Every stage, every club edge

Each game expands to show the four forecast stages, the gates, the club-level KPI edges the model consumed and both lineups with their strongest readings. Composite z averages a hitter's KPI standard scores; a positive number means above the qualified-population mean on balance.

CLE @ CHW · final 9-3

Stage	Away runs	Home runs	Home win	Note
Production baseline	5.000	4.000	0.451	what the system would have published
KPI-only forecast	5.001	5.172	0.527	44 KPI features alone, no baseline input
Blended	5.000	4.445	0.451	at the fitted weights
Published	5	4	0.465	after rounding and reconciliation
Actual	9	3	-	official final

Applied. Lineup coverage CLE 1.000, CHW 0.895. Value age 10 days. Gates passed 7/7.

Joint-model feature accounting

Numeric coefficient contributions explain the KPI-only forecast. Home-win contributions use log-odds; run targets use runs.

Target	Feature	Raw	Standardised	Contribution	Unit
home_runs	away_pen_share	0.6084	+3.094	+0.6775	runs
home_runs	home_off_ground_spread	1.1711	+2.365	+0.5782	runs
home_runs	home_pen_share	0.5399	+2.299	+0.5465	runs
home_runs	home_off_contact_spread	0.9836	+1.624	+0.4690	runs
home_runs	home_off_power_spread	1.1914	+1.740	-0.4472	runs
home_runs	home_off_worst3_discipline	-1.1139	-2.305	-0.4261	runs
home_runs	home_platoon_whiff	-0.2395	-1.044	-0.3999	runs
home_runs	home_off_top3_contact	1.3435	+1.885	-0.3397	runs
home_runs	away_platoon_whiff	0.5920	+1.831	-0.3076	runs
home_runs	home_off_qualified_share	0.8947	+1.086	+0.2830	runs
away_runs	home_off_power_spread	1.1914	+1.740	+0.9154	runs
away_runs	away_off_contact	-0.3389	-1.678	-0.5764	runs
away_runs	away_off_discipline_spread	0.9673	+2.572	+0.5713	runs
away_runs	away_pen_share	0.6084	+3.094	-0.5330	runs
away_runs	home_platoon_whiff	-0.2395	-1.044	+0.5264	runs
away_runs	home_off_ground_spread	1.1711	+2.365	+0.5243	runs
away_runs	home_off_top3_contact	1.3435	+1.885	-0.4188	runs
away_runs	away_off_discipline	0.5348	+2.248	+0.3998	runs
away_runs	home_platoon_barrel	0.3669	+1.083	-0.3665	runs
away_runs	home_x_fastball	-0.2385	-1.268	+0.3409	runs
home_win	home_pen_share	0.5399	+2.299	+0.3030	log_odds
home_win	away_off_discipline	0.5348	+2.248	-0.2795	log_odds
home_win	away_pen_share	0.6084	+3.094	+0.2720	log_odds
home_win	home_off_power_spread	1.1914	+1.740	-0.2689	log_odds
home_win	away_off_discipline_spread	0.9673	+2.572	-0.2573	log_odds
home_win	away_off_qualified_share	1.0000	+2.073	-0.2325	log_odds
home_win	home_off_top3_contact	1.3435	+1.885	+0.2251	log_odds
home_win	home_off_contact_spread	0.9836	+1.624	+0.1840	log_odds
home_win	home_off_qualified_share	0.8947	+1.086	+0.1770	log_odds
home_win	home_platoon_whiff	-0.2395	-1.044	-0.1698	log_odds

Player neutralisation sensitivity

Each row replaces one player's qualified KPI values with population-mean z=0. Interactions make rows non-additive. Zero means no measured joint-model movement at the fitted weight; it is not a claim of zero individual impact. Player props remain unchanged.

Side	Role	Player ID	Proj PA	Features changed	Away runs	Home runs	Home win
home	batter	803011	3.72731460656	15	-0.1504	+0.0691	+0.0000
home	batter	678246	4.4762603389799995	16	+0.0117	+0.2121	+0.0000
home	batter	808959	4.34052045686	17	-0.0522	+0.0062	+0.0000
home	batter	691019	3.9895515768000003	5	+0.0152	+0.0295	-0.0000
home	batter	805367	4.26132329504	15	-0.0524	+0.0220	+0.0000
home	batter	671976	3.22378863544	15	-0.0914	+0.1111	+0.0000
home	batter	695731	3.91542428826	15	+0.0081	+0.0608	+0.0000
home	batter	545341	2.71944087534	14	-0.0726	+0.1532	+0.0000
home	batter	695657	3.97698279106	16	+0.1299	+0.1444	-0.0000
away	batter	680757	4.2570342024015	15	+0.1419	-0.3153	-0.0000
away	batter	608070	4.5488935550325	15	+0.0255	-0.0470	-0.0000
away	batter	800050	4.6871930881265005	15	+0.0901	-0.0519	-0.0000
away	batter	666176	4.0918269128635005	17	-0.0140	-0.0819	-0.0000
away	batter	663993	3.501860721852	14	+0.0315	-0.0004	-0.0000
away	batter	682657	4.188426461706	16	+0.0104	-0.0644	-0.0000
away	batter	683953	4.084066143766	15	-0.0084	-0.0680	-0.0000
away	batter	672275	3.279798790739	16	-0.0258	-0.0913	-0.0000
away	batter	677587	3.739603512294	15	-0.0446	-0.1299	-0.0000
home	pitcher	656794	-	9	-0.0224	+0.0249	+0.0000
away	pitcher	682982	-	0	+0.0000	+0.0000	+0.0000
home	reliever	696146	4.177067156650813	6	-0.0373	-0.0145	+0.0000
home	reliever	663855	3.4137846952010373	10	-0.0958	+0.0525	+0.0000
home	reliever	663542	3.1386299178555985	10	+0.0508	+0.0269	+0.0000
home	reliever	641743	3.4821847528462317	10	-0.0073	-0.0091	-0.0000
home	reliever	691799	4.3449582072344715	10	-0.0355	+0.0823	+0.0000
home	reliever	607200	2.499711197578902	10	+0.0362	-0.0331	-0.0000
home	reliever	689818	0.5176640726329442	10	+0.0014	+0.0033	+0.0000
away	reliever	682120	4.00167857142857	10	-0.0103	-0.0232	-0.0000
away	reliever	681870	3.6531681034482753	10	+0.0205	+0.0066	-0.0000
away	reliever	542888	3.297581280788177	10	-0.0193	+0.0034	+0.0000
away	reliever	683769	3.444415640394088	10	-0.0146	-0.0043	+0.0000
away	reliever	671922	3.5346391625615756	9	+0.0707	+0.0388	-0.0000
away	reliever	670036	0.792551724137931	10	+0.0076	+0.0021	-0.0000
away	reliever	676282	1.386965517241379	10	+0.0014	-0.0173	-0.0000

Club KPI edges

KPI	CLE	CHW	Edge (H-A)	A spread	H spread
batter_barrel_rate_vs_breaking	-0.435	+0.138	+0.573	0.7367	1.1269
batter_barrel_rate_vs_fastball	-0.586	+0.363	+0.949	0.7222	1.2494
batter_barrel_rate_vs_lhp	-0.408	+0.369	+0.777	0.8288	1.2814
batter_barrel_rate_vs_offspeed	-0.472	+0.467	+0.939	1.031	1.3899
batter_barrel_rate_vs_rhp	-0.571	+0.313	+0.884	0.6969	1.24
batter_bat_speed	-0.328	-0.069	+0.260	1.4401	1.204
batter_contact_rate_vs_breaking	+0.349	-0.065	-0.414	1.4508	1.0917
batter_contact_xwoba	-0.276	+0.448	+0.724	0.7658	0.9536
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_breaking	-0.288	+0.118	+0.405	0.9236	0.9843
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_fastball	-0.144	+0.421	+0.565	0.7043	0.9345
batter_exit_velocity_vs_fastball	-0.124	+0.105	+0.229	0.9165	1.012
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball	+0.498	+0.144	-0.354	0.5721	1.2777
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_slider	+0.025	-0.143	-0.169	0.5665	1.1435
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking	-0.274	+0.193	+0.467	1.1034	1.0853
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball	-0.396	+0.180	+0.576	1.4056	0.8622
batter_home_run_rate	-0.244	+0.394	+0.638	0.8343	1.2673
batter_strikeout_rate	+0.598	-0.158	-0.755	0.9662	1.2109
batter_walk_rate	-0.036	+0.364	+0.400	1.1363	1.2639
batter_whiff_rate_vs_breaking	+0.719	+0.186	-0.534	1.0989	1.326
batter_whiff_rate_vs_fastball	+0.674	-0.578	-1.252	0.8398	1.4894
batter_whiff_rate_vs_lhp	+0.563	-0.046	-0.609	0.9542	1.3487
batter_whiff_rate_vs_offspeed	+0.774	-0.034	-0.808	0.9144	1.019
batter_whiff_rate_vs_rhp	+0.856	-0.168	-1.023	0.9775	1.3526
pitcher_barrel_rate_allowed	+0.000	+0.548	+0.548	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_lhh	+0.000	+0.501	+0.501	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_rhh	+0.000	+0.273	+0.273	-	-
pitcher_contact_xwoba_allowed	+0.000	-0.132	-0.132	-	-
pitcher_ground_ball_rate_induced	+0.000	+0.457	+0.457	-	-
pitcher_hard_hit_rate_allowed	+0.000	+0.057	+0.057	-	-
pitcher_home_run_rate_allowed	+0.000	+1.794	+1.794	-	-
pitcher_release_speed	+0.000	+0.090	+0.090	-	-
pitcher_strikeout_rate	+0.000	+0.037	+0.037	-	-
pitcher_walk_rate	+0.000	-0.075	-0.075	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate	+0.000	-0.391	-0.391	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_breaking	+0.000	+0.000	+0.000	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_fastball	+0.000	+0.480	+0.480	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_lhh	+0.000	-0.589	-0.589	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_rhh	+0.000	-0.265	-0.265	-	-

Lineups and their strongest readings

Batter	Pos	Proj PA	Composite z	Three strongest KPI readings
CLE lineup vs Sean Newcomb
1. Steven Kwan	CF	4.65	-0.344	hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-4.00), bat_speed Poor (-3.47), contact_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+3.09)
2. José Ramírez	3B	4.55	+0.275	whiff_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+2.21), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+1.87), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.70)
3. Chase DeLauter	RF	4.45	+0.480	contact_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+2.31), whiff_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+1.80), whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+1.62)
4. Jo Adell	DH	4.35	+0.156	bat_speed Very good (+2.16), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+1.68), walk_rate Poor (-1.40)
5. Nathaniel Lowe	1B	4.25	+0.251	whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Good (+1.13), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Good (+1.01), bat_speed Good (+0.99)
6. Angel Martínez	LF	4.15	+0.078	walk_rate Poor (-2.05), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Good (+1.16), barrel_rate_vs_breaking Good (+1.12)
7. Travis Bazzana	2B	4.05	-0.267	hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-1.41), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Poor (-1.41), barrel_rate_vs_breaking Below average (-1.09)
8. Patrick Bailey	C	3.98	+0.033	ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Good (+0.95), strikeout_rate Below average (-0.88), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Good (+0.84)
9. Brayan Rocchio	SS	3.90	-0.543	barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Poor (-1.60), barrel_rate_vs_rhp Poor (-1.47), barrel_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-1.35)
CHW lineup vs Daniel Espino
1. Sam Antonacci	DH	4.65	-0.072	whiff_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+2.29), whiff_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+1.73), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Poor (-1.57)
2. Miguel Vargas	3B	4.55	+1.043	walk_rate Very good (+2.02), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.83), barrel_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+1.69)
3. Munetaka Murakami	1B	4.45	+0.714	whiff_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-3.27), barrel_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+3.16), barrel_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+3.14)
4. Kyle Teel	C	4.35	-0.090	whiff_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.07), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Average (+0.00), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Average (+0.00)
5. Chase Meidroth	2B	4.25	-0.270	bat_speed Poor (-2.07), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Good (+1.29), whiff_rate_vs_breaking Good (+1.14)
6. Tristan Peters	CF	4.15	-0.382	exit_velocity_vs_fastball Poor (-1.90), bat_speed Poor (-1.38), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-1.17)
7. Braden Montgomery	RF	4.05	-0.458	ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.61), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Poor (-1.34), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Below average (-1.28)
8. Randal Grichuk	LF	3.98	+0.531	barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+2.83), barrel_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+1.91), walk_rate Poor (-1.55)
9. Colson Montgomery	SS	3.90	+0.046	strikeout_rate Poor (-2.35), contact_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-2.24), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.12)

LAD @ ATL · final 4-1

Stage	Away runs	Home runs	Home win	Note
Production baseline	4.000	3.000	0.492	what the system would have published
KPI-only forecast	4.120	4.796	0.688	44 KPI features alone, no baseline input
Blended	4.041	3.683	0.492	at the fitted weights
Published	6	4	0.493	after rounding and reconciliation
Actual	4	1	-	official final

Applied. Lineup coverage LAD 0.883, ATL 0.895. Value age 10 days. Gates passed 7/7.

Joint-model feature accounting

Numeric coefficient contributions explain the KPI-only forecast. Home-win contributions use log-odds; run targets use runs.

Target	Feature	Raw	Standardised	Contribution	Unit
home_runs	home_off_power	0.5244	+2.160	+0.5036	runs
home_runs	away_off_top3_contact	1.3012	+1.698	-0.3773	runs
home_runs	away_off_ground	0.6496	+2.051	+0.3746	runs
home_runs	home_sp_whiff	1.0583	+1.948	-0.3729	runs
home_runs	home_x_breaking	0.4955	+2.484	-0.3591	runs
home_runs	home_off_contact_spread	0.8940	+1.138	+0.3286	runs
home_runs	away_off_contact	0.5130	+1.979	+0.3203	runs
home_runs	home_platoon_barrel	0.6390	+1.994	-0.3183	runs
home_runs	home_off_top3_contact	1.2701	+1.656	-0.2985	runs
home_runs	home_off_qualified_share	0.8947	+1.086	+0.2830	runs
away_runs	away_off_contact	0.5130	+1.979	+0.6800	runs
away_runs	home_platoon_barrel	0.6390	+1.994	-0.6751	runs
away_runs	home_x_breaking	0.4955	+2.484	+0.5070	runs
away_runs	home_off_top3_contact	1.2701	+1.656	-0.3680	runs
away_runs	home_off_qualified_share	0.8947	+1.086	-0.3364	runs
away_runs	home_sp_whiff	1.0583	+1.948	-0.3142	runs
away_runs	home_off_contact	0.3966	+1.442	+0.2872	runs
away_runs	away_off_power_spread	0.5497	-0.956	-0.2260	runs
away_runs	home_sp_command	0.7673	+1.214	+0.1930	runs
away_runs	away_off_discipline	0.2776	+1.031	+0.1834	runs
home_win	home_x_breaking	0.4955	+2.484	-0.3713	log_odds
home_win	away_off_ground	0.6496	+2.051	+0.3641	log_odds
home_win	home_off_top3_contact	1.2701	+1.656	+0.1978	log_odds
home_win	home_sp_command	0.7673	+1.214	-0.1880	log_odds
home_win	home_off_qualified_share	0.8947	+1.086	+0.1770	log_odds
home_win	home_off_power	0.5244	+2.160	+0.1390	log_odds
home_win	home_off_contact_spread	0.8940	+1.138	+0.1289	log_odds
home_win	away_off_discipline	0.2776	+1.031	-0.1282	log_odds
home_win	home_platoon_barrel	0.6390	+1.994	+0.1234	log_odds
home_win	away_off_qualified_share	0.8830	+1.017	-0.1141	log_odds

Player neutralisation sensitivity

Side	Role	Player ID	Proj PA	Features changed	Away runs	Home runs	Home win
home	batter	671739	4.94955883169416	16	-0.1352	+0.1245	+0.0000
home	batter	660670	4.64954713214168	17	-0.0420	+0.0871	+0.0000
home	batter	621566	4.4294346974132806	17	-0.0539	+0.1738	+0.0000
home	batter	645277	4.2778251992545595	16	+0.0536	+0.1741	+0.0000
home	batter	686948	4.35916747650432	17	-0.1877	+0.1042	+0.0000
home	batter	573262	2.9159850491961596	16	-0.0473	+0.0720	+0.0000
home	batter	643289	3.9935966896623203	16	-0.0263	+0.0321	-0.0000
home	batter	663586	3.8333653190807997	16	-0.1289	+0.1248	+0.0000
home	batter	669221	3.61539886220192	5	-0.0097	-0.0002	+0.0000
away	batter	605141	4.84010396752896	15	+0.1053	-0.0530	-0.0000
away	batter	518692	4.43239091137536	15	+0.0662	-0.0055	-0.0000
away	batter	669257	4.23586820599808	15	+0.0455	+0.0800	-0.0000
away	batter	660271	4.34435564304384	17	-0.0136	-0.2136	-0.0000
away	batter	606192	4.11469019404288	17	-0.0113	-0.0765	-0.0000
away	batter	571970	3.63952030731264	17	+0.0004	-0.0278	-0.0000
away	batter	571771	2.87499686213632	0	+0.0000	+0.0000	+0.0000
away	batter	663656	4.28357661125632	15	-0.0065	-0.0493	-0.0000
away	batter	681624	4.52357342845952	15	+0.0578	+0.0063	-0.0000
home	pitcher	641816	-	9	-0.1306	-0.0000	+0.0000
away	pitcher	607192	-	10	+0.1439	-0.2696	-0.0000
home	reliever	656550	2.943635001337971	10	+0.0108	-0.0188	-0.0000
home	reliever	689266	1.4138640620818834	9	+0.0203	+0.0060	+0.0000
home	reliever	682989	2.0333663366336627	9	+0.0041	+0.0258	+0.0000
home	reliever	700363	3.126488092052448	9	+0.0145	-0.0267	-0.0000
home	reliever	663158	2.3201359379181157	9	-0.0368	+0.0400	+0.0000
home	reliever	800311	1.977411292480599	10	-0.0062	+0.0386	+0.0000
home	reliever	669276	1.121099277495317	10	-0.0030	-0.0075	+0.0000
away	reliever	681911	2.1896194385158436	10	-0.0017	-0.0161	-0.0000
away	reliever	808963	2.2321009686422597	10	+0.0179	+0.0031	-0.0000
away	reliever	592779	2.2563761287144977	3	-0.0050	-0.0009	+0.0000
away	reliever	623465	2.005128221966837	6	+0.0143	+0.0011	-0.0000
away	reliever	663460	2.78557461828928	10	-0.0076	-0.0038	+0.0000
away	reliever	656945	1.7259638811361029	10	+0.0018	+0.0023	-0.0000
away	reliever	683618	1.5912367427351832	10	-0.0289	+0.0105	+0.0000

Club KPI edges

KPI	LAD	ATL	Edge (H-A)	A spread	H spread
batter_barrel_rate_vs_breaking	+0.096	+0.525	+0.429	0.4889	1.1006
batter_barrel_rate_vs_fastball	+0.715	+0.254	-0.461	0.9765	1.0102
batter_barrel_rate_vs_lhp	+0.541	+0.130	-0.411	0.7364	0.8925
batter_barrel_rate_vs_offspeed	+0.562	+0.531	-0.031	0.9112	0.9042
batter_barrel_rate_vs_rhp	+0.509	+0.599	+0.090	0.8608	1.0342
batter_bat_speed	-0.046	+0.488	+0.534	0.5743	0.9981
batter_contact_rate_vs_breaking	+0.039	-0.013	-0.052	0.938	0.618
batter_contact_xwoba	+0.741	+0.367	-0.373	0.932	1.1043
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_breaking	+0.251	+0.341	+0.089	0.706	0.8766
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_fastball	+0.920	+0.257	-0.663	0.9863	0.9252
batter_exit_velocity_vs_fastball	+0.690	+0.410	-0.279	0.6196	0.7415
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball	+0.470	+0.350	-0.120	0.9761	0.9116
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_slider	+0.789	+0.161	-0.628	0.7713	0.6784
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking	+0.056	+0.226	+0.170	0.8243	1.1816
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball	+0.645	+0.436	-0.209	0.6787	0.9907
batter_home_run_rate	+0.498	+0.492	-0.006	0.7247	0.8824
batter_strikeout_rate	+0.348	+0.157	-0.192	0.843	0.9042
batter_walk_rate	+0.565	-0.298	-0.863	0.647	0.8272
batter_whiff_rate_vs_breaking	+0.203	+0.347	+0.144	0.9208	0.6499
batter_whiff_rate_vs_fastball	+0.209	-0.153	-0.362	0.8853	0.746
batter_whiff_rate_vs_lhp	+0.199	+0.208	+0.010	1.2129	0.8448
batter_whiff_rate_vs_offspeed	+0.138	+0.616	+0.477	0.8713	0.8404
batter_whiff_rate_vs_rhp	+0.175	+0.081	-0.095	0.8549	0.5839
pitcher_barrel_rate_allowed	-0.391	+0.606	+0.997	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_lhh	-0.713	+0.720	+1.433	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_rhh	+0.192	+0.177	-0.015	-	-
pitcher_contact_xwoba_allowed	+0.155	+0.034	-0.121	-	-
pitcher_ground_ball_rate_induced	-0.154	+0.296	+0.450	-	-
pitcher_hard_hit_rate_allowed	+0.007	+0.389	+0.382	-	-
pitcher_home_run_rate_allowed	+0.418	-0.360	-0.778	-	-
pitcher_release_speed	+0.379	-0.071	-0.451	-	-
pitcher_strikeout_rate	+2.223	-0.052	-2.275	-	-
pitcher_walk_rate	+0.139	+0.718	+0.579	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate	+1.672	-0.446	-2.118	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_breaking	+2.202	+0.000	-2.202	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_fastball	+0.137	+0.407	+0.269	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_lhh	+1.128	-0.146	-1.274	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_rhh	+1.795	-0.726	-2.521	-	-

Lineups and their strongest readings

Batter	Pos	Proj PA	Composite z	Three strongest KPI readings
LAD lineup vs Tyler Mahle
1. Mookie Betts	SS	4.65	+0.592	whiff_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+2.45), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.95), strikeout_rate Very good (+1.91)
2. Freddie Freeman	1B	4.55	+0.191	whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+1.33), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Good (+1.04), contact_xwoba Good (+0.83)
3. Will Smith	C	4.45	+0.775	ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+2.08), contact_xwoba_vs_fastball Very good (+1.81), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Very good (+1.70)
4. Shohei Ohtani	DH	4.35	+0.902	contact_xwoba_vs_fastball Very good (+2.84), contact_xwoba Very good (+2.75), barrel_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+2.67)
5. Teoscar Hernández	LF	4.25	+0.079	whiff_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-1.43), barrel_rate_vs_lhp Good (+1.34), contact_xwoba Good (+1.24)
6. Max Muncy	3B	4.15	+0.515	ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.89), contact_xwoba_vs_fastball Very good (+1.71), barrel_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.67)
7. Enrique Hernández	2B	4.05	-0.026	whiff_rate_vs_lhp Below average (-0.59), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Average (+0.00), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Average (+0.00)
8. Kyle Tucker	RF	3.98	+0.162	ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Very good (+2.24), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Poor (-1.42), walk_rate Very good (+1.35)
9. Andy Pages	CF	3.90	+0.387	ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Very good (+1.31), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Good (+0.90), whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Good (+0.79)
ATL lineup vs Tyler Glasnow
1. Michael Harris II	CF	4.65	+0.428	barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+1.98), walk_rate Poor (-1.90), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Very good (+1.44)
2. Ronald Acuña Jr.	RF	4.55	+0.530	barrel_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.67), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.58), contact_xwoba Very good (+1.41)
3. Matt Olson	1B	4.45	+0.964	home_run_rate Very good (+2.44), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+2.10), barrel_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+1.86)
4. Ozzie Albies	2B	4.35	-0.363	ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+2.18), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-2.04), contact_xwoba Poor (-1.73)
5. Drake Baldwin	DH	4.25	+0.703	barrel_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+2.13), barrel_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+1.90), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.65)
6. Mike Yastrzemski	LF	4.15	+0.126	whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Good (+1.10), whiff_rate_vs_breaking Good (+0.86), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Good (+0.72)
7. Mauricio Dubón	SS	4.05	-0.095	whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+2.29), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+1.92), strikeout_rate Very good (+1.72)
8. Austin Riley	3B	3.98	+0.135	strikeout_rate Poor (-1.66), bat_speed Very good (+1.58), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-1.36)
9. Sean Murphy	C	3.90	+0.019	whiff_rate_vs_fastball Average (+0.44), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Average (+0.00), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Average (+0.00)

MIL @ SD · final 3-1

Stage	Away runs	Home runs	Home win	Note
Production baseline	4.000	5.000	0.505	what the system would have published
KPI-only forecast	3.424	6.022	0.707	44 KPI features alone, no baseline input
Blended	3.804	5.388	0.505	at the fitted weights
Published	6	5	0.495	after rounding and reconciliation
Actual	3	1	-	official final

Applied. Lineup coverage MIL 1.000, SD 0.772. Value age 10 days. Gates passed 7/7.

Joint-model feature accounting

Numeric coefficient contributions explain the KPI-only forecast. Home-win contributions use log-odds; run targets use runs.

Target	Feature	Raw	Standardised	Contribution	Unit
home_runs	away_off_ground	-0.7385	-2.544	-0.4647	runs
home_runs	away_off_contact_spread	0.8979	+0.993	-0.4421	runs
home_runs	away_off_top3_contact	1.3386	+1.818	-0.4038	runs
home_runs	away_pen_share	0.5149	+1.733	+0.3796	runs
home_runs	home_pen_share	0.4794	+1.511	+0.3592	runs
home_runs	away_sp_velocity	0.5712	+0.742	+0.3413	runs
home_runs	home_pen_minus_sp	0.5408	+2.027	+0.3017	runs
home_runs	away_sp_ground	1.0175	+1.612	+0.2835	runs
home_runs	home_off_power	0.2837	+1.084	+0.2527	runs
home_runs	away_pen_minus_sp	0.5283	+1.683	+0.2339	runs
away_runs	away_sp_ground	1.0175	+1.612	-0.5250	runs
away_runs	away_off_contact	0.3325	+1.204	+0.4138	runs
away_runs	home_off_power_spread	0.5785	-0.773	-0.4064	runs
away_runs	away_pen_share	0.5149	+1.733	-0.2986	runs
away_runs	home_off_discipline_spread	0.2140	-2.368	+0.2839	runs
away_runs	away_off_contact_spread	0.8979	+0.993	-0.2761	runs
away_runs	home_off_top3_contact	1.0774	+1.055	-0.2345	runs
away_runs	away_off_discipline_spread	0.7301	+1.054	+0.2340	runs
away_runs	home_off_contact	0.3237	+1.140	+0.2272	runs
away_runs	away_off_ground	-0.7385	-2.544	+0.2160	runs
home_win	away_off_ground	-0.7385	-2.544	-0.4517	log_odds
home_win	away_sp_ground	1.0175	+1.612	+0.2721	log_odds
home_win	away_off_qualified_share	1.0000	+2.073	-0.2325	log_odds
home_win	home_pen_share	0.4794	+1.511	+0.1992	log_odds
home_win	away_sp_velocity	0.5712	+0.742	+0.1592	log_odds
home_win	away_pen_share	0.5149	+1.733	+0.1524	log_odds
home_win	home_off_discipline_spread	0.2140	-2.368	+0.1511	log_odds
home_win	home_off_top3_contact	1.0774	+1.055	+0.1260	log_odds
home_win	away_x_ground	-0.8564	-4.052	+0.1214	log_odds
home_win	home_off_power_spread	0.5785	-0.773	+0.1194	log_odds

Player neutralisation sensitivity

Side	Role	Player ID	Proj PA	Features changed	Away runs	Home runs	Home win
home	batter	665487	4.8992034587304	16	-0.1755	+0.1107	+0.0000
home	batter	701538	4.89207676540484	17	-0.0757	+0.1886	+0.0000
home	batter	592518	4.21441349413432	15	-0.0629	+0.0715	+0.0000
home	batter	664034	4.08027261238548	17	-0.0549	+0.0768	+0.0000
home	batter	669720	2.76295427094284	2	+0.0432	-0.0228	-0.0000
home	batter	593428	3.8498969279010797	15	-0.0898	+0.1029	+0.0000
home	batter	669134	3.76373565774798	14	-0.0858	+0.1213	+0.0000
home	batter	630105	3.69087163309238	15	-0.0869	+0.1732	+0.0000
home	batter	669392	3.32175464763538	4	-0.0047	+0.0013	+0.0000
away	batter	694192	5.05881940096	16	+0.0913	-0.0353	-0.0000
away	batter	592885	4.4836008569344	16	-0.0388	-0.0599	-0.0000
away	batter	661388	4.8891440035328	15	+0.0673	-0.0071	-0.0000
away	batter	668930	4.806327485696	15	+0.1193	-0.0105	-0.0000
away	batter	641343	4.1392834020864	17	+0.0207	-0.0576	-0.0000
away	batter	806198	3.605565090304	15	+0.0364	-0.1082	-0.0000
away	batter	686217	3.4434136467456	15	+0.1097	-0.2632	-0.0000
away	batter	669003	4.1078453609984	17	-0.0481	-0.2124	-0.0000
away	batter	687401	3.499713150208	15	+0.0276	-0.1146	-0.0000
home	pitcher	621111	-	10	-0.0440	+0.0529	+0.0000
away	pitcher	688107	-	10	-0.0535	+0.1184	+0.0000
home	reliever	592094	4.938779267051238	9	+0.0107	-0.0116	-0.0000
home	reliever	670970	8.102633186291143	10	-0.1523	+0.3768	+0.0000
home	reliever	699134	2.2862885985748216	9	-0.0353	+0.0669	+0.0000
home	reliever	688158	1.7320368171021379	10	-0.0045	+0.0283	+0.0000
home	reliever	673513	1.3064506277570411	10	+0.0093	-0.0124	-0.0000
home	reliever	593974	0.6004394299287411	10	-0.0054	+0.0087	+0.0000
home	reliever	605397	0.47837207329487613	0	+0.0000	+0.0000	+0.0000
away	reliever	622608	3.4269782163918645	9	-0.0104	+0.0212	+0.0000
away	reliever	676879	5.27342893248285	10	-0.0240	-0.0072	-0.0000
away	reliever	656730	4.484237453363822	10	-0.0504	+0.0253	+0.0000
away	reliever	682842	1.8207162113371043	10	-0.0163	+0.0092	-0.0000
away	reliever	694477	1.6705982669394634	9	-0.0159	+0.0061	+0.0000
away	reliever	669084	0.6583744132867975	10	-0.0048	-0.0007	+0.0000
away	reliever	668941	0.4846665061980985	10	+0.0044	+0.0000	-0.0000

Club KPI edges

KPI	MIL	SD	Edge (H-A)	A spread	H spread
batter_barrel_rate_vs_breaking	+0.224	+0.082	-0.141	0.7619	0.8003
batter_barrel_rate_vs_fastball	+0.126	+0.258	+0.132	0.9786	0.7648
batter_barrel_rate_vs_lhp	-0.135	-0.010	+0.124	0.8916	0.8523
batter_barrel_rate_vs_offspeed	-0.083	+0.397	+0.480	0.9461	0.912
batter_barrel_rate_vs_rhp	+0.248	+0.322	+0.074	0.9633	0.6259
batter_bat_speed	+0.376	+0.341	-0.034	1.0909	0.5705
batter_contact_rate_vs_breaking	+0.456	+0.001	-0.455	1.0959	0.521
batter_contact_xwoba	+0.409	+0.211	-0.197	1.2127	0.8413
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_breaking	+0.427	-0.131	-0.558	1.0626	0.8715
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_fastball	+0.324	+0.377	+0.053	1.1972	0.8933
batter_exit_velocity_vs_fastball	+0.327	+0.538	+0.210	1.0421	0.861
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball	-0.857	-0.195	+0.662	0.6303	1.0355
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_slider	-0.662	-0.117	+0.545	1.027	0.6436
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking	+0.369	+0.128	-0.242	1.1256	1.0657
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball	+0.342	+0.585	+0.242	1.0829	0.9484
batter_home_run_rate	-0.266	+0.164	+0.429	0.8412	0.6733
batter_strikeout_rate	-0.006	+0.116	+0.122	1.0924	0.3159
batter_walk_rate	+0.604	+0.180	-0.424	0.9329	0.7209
batter_whiff_rate_vs_breaking	+0.170	+0.065	-0.105	1.13	0.3342
batter_whiff_rate_vs_fastball	-0.048	-0.067	-0.018	0.969	0.7102
batter_whiff_rate_vs_lhp	+0.235	-0.034	-0.269	0.6482	0.5499
batter_whiff_rate_vs_offspeed	+0.145	-0.107	-0.252	1.2262	0.3907
batter_whiff_rate_vs_rhp	+0.055	-0.075	-0.130	1.229	0.2504
pitcher_barrel_rate_allowed	+0.006	-0.543	-0.549	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_lhh	+0.989	+0.415	-0.574	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_rhh	-0.725	-1.294	-0.568	-	-
pitcher_contact_xwoba_allowed	-0.294	+0.121	+0.415	-	-
pitcher_ground_ball_rate_induced	-1.389	+0.788	+2.176	-	-
pitcher_hard_hit_rate_allowed	+1.273	-0.069	-1.342	-	-
pitcher_home_run_rate_allowed	-0.316	-0.521	-0.205	-	-
pitcher_release_speed	-0.591	+0.035	+0.626	-	-
pitcher_strikeout_rate	-0.057	-0.537	-0.479	-	-
pitcher_walk_rate	+0.735	+0.123	-0.612	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate	-0.778	-1.212	-0.434	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_breaking	-0.940	-0.832	+0.108	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_fastball	+0.160	-0.924	-1.084	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_lhh	+0.329	-1.368	-1.697	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_rhh	-1.235	-0.796	+0.439	-	-

Lineups and their strongest readings

Batter	Pos	Proj PA	Composite z	Three strongest KPI readings
MIL lineup vs Walker Buehler
1. Jackson Chourio	LF	4.65	+0.527	exit_velocity_vs_fastball Very good (+1.55), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.49), barrel_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+1.44)
2. Christian Yelich	DH	4.55	-0.272	ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.10), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Poor (-1.84), whiff_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-1.59)
3. William Contreras	C	4.45	+0.312	contact_rate_vs_breaking Good (+1.28), strikeout_rate Good (+1.24), exit_velocity_vs_fastball Good (+0.97)
4. Brice Turang	2B	4.35	+0.313	hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.68), walk_rate Very good (+1.56), contact_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.39)
5. Jake Bauers	1B	4.25	+0.658	walk_rate Very good (+2.75), contact_xwoba Very good (+1.77), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.68)
6. Cooper Pratt	SS	4.15	-0.267	hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Below average (-1.14), home_run_rate Below average (-1.13), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Below average (-1.07)
7. Sal Frelick	RF	4.05	-0.261	whiff_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+2.49), whiff_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+2.35), whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+2.15)
8. Garrett Mitchell	CF	3.98	+0.227	contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Very good (+2.32), whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Poor (-2.25), contact_xwoba Very good (+2.20)
9. Joey Ortiz	3B	3.90	-0.222	ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Poor (-1.42), contact_rate_vs_breaking Good (+1.23), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Below average (-1.16)
SD lineup vs Robert Gasser
1. Fernando Tatis Jr.	RF	4.65	+0.710	barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+2.48), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.96), exit_velocity_vs_fastball Very good (+1.55)
2. Jackson Merrill	CF	4.55	+0.621	contact_xwoba_vs_fastball Very good (+1.97), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.64), contact_xwoba Very good (+1.56)
3. Manny Machado	3B	4.45	+0.285	hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.75), exit_velocity_vs_fastball Very good (+1.71), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Poor (-1.63)
4. Ty France	1B	4.35	+0.123	hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.64), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Below average (-1.12), home_run_rate Good (+0.83)
5. Austin Hays	DH	4.25	-0.046	whiff_rate_vs_lhp Below average (-0.73), barrel_rate_vs_lhp Average (-0.34), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Average (+0.00)
6. Xander Bogaerts	SS	4.15	-0.151	ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.04), walk_rate Very good (+1.41), barrel_rate_vs_lhp Poor (-1.25)
7. Luis Campusano	C	4.05	-0.076	walk_rate Good (+0.95), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Below average (-0.94), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Good (+0.93)
8. Jake Cronenworth	2B	3.98	-0.458	barrel_rate_vs_lhp Poor (-1.52), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Below average (-1.38), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Good (+1.24)
9. Samad Taylor	LF	3.90	+0.018	whiff_rate_vs_fastball Average (+0.41), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Average (+0.00), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Average (+0.00)

TB @ NYY · final 4-3

Stage	Away runs	Home runs	Home win	Note
Production baseline	3.000	4.000	0.566	what the system would have published
KPI-only forecast	4.361	4.525	0.582	44 KPI features alone, no baseline input
Blended	3.463	4.200	0.566	at the fitted weights
Published	3	4	0.544	after rounding and reconciliation
Actual	4	3	-	official final

Applied. Lineup coverage TB 0.983, NYY 0.895. Value age 10 days. Gates passed 7/7.

Joint-model feature accounting

Numeric coefficient contributions explain the KPI-only forecast. Home-win contributions use log-odds; run targets use runs.

Target	Feature	Raw	Standardised	Contribution	Unit
home_runs	away_off_contact_spread	0.9747	+1.397	-0.6220	runs
home_runs	away_platoon_whiff	0.9015	+2.892	-0.4857	runs
home_runs	away_sp_velocity	-0.5170	-0.979	-0.4501	runs
home_runs	home_off_ground	0.4468	+1.342	+0.3886	runs
home_runs	home_off_top3_contact	1.3995	+2.059	-0.3712	runs
home_runs	away_off_power_spread	1.2760	+1.967	+0.3502	runs
home_runs	home_sp_whiff	-0.7672	-1.609	+0.3079	runs
home_runs	away_sp_suppress	1.5422	+2.540	+0.2970	runs
home_runs	home_off_qualified_share	0.8947	+1.086	+0.2830	runs
home_runs	home_platoon_barrel	0.5586	+1.725	-0.2753	runs
away_runs	away_off_worst3_discipline	-0.0345	+1.951	+0.5862	runs
away_runs	home_platoon_barrel	0.5586	+1.725	-0.5840	runs
away_runs	away_sp_suppress	1.5422	+2.540	-0.4676	runs
away_runs	away_off_power_spread	1.2760	+1.967	+0.4651	runs
away_runs	away_off_discipline	0.6124	+2.615	+0.4651	runs
away_runs	home_off_top3_contact	1.3995	+2.059	-0.4576	runs
away_runs	away_sp_ground	0.8588	+1.342	-0.4370	runs
away_runs	away_off_contact_spread	0.9747	+1.397	-0.3885	runs
away_runs	home_off_qualified_share	0.8947	+1.086	-0.3364	runs
away_runs	home_x_ground	-0.2803	-1.378	+0.3088	runs
home_win	away_off_discipline	0.6124	+2.615	-0.3251	log_odds
home_win	away_sp_suppress	1.5422	+2.540	+0.2817	log_odds
home_win	home_off_top3_contact	1.3995	+2.059	+0.2460	log_odds
home_win	away_sp_ground	0.8588	+1.342	+0.2265	log_odds
home_win	home_sp_velocity	-0.7102	-1.267	-0.2231	log_odds
home_win	away_off_qualified_share	0.9825	+1.915	-0.2147	log_odds
home_win	away_sp_velocity	-0.5170	-0.979	-0.2100	log_odds
home_win	home_x_ground	-0.2803	-1.378	-0.1965	log_odds
home_win	away_off_power_spread	1.2760	+1.967	-0.1898	log_odds
home_win	home_off_qualified_share	0.8947	+1.086	+0.1770	log_odds

Player neutralisation sensitivity

Side	Role	Player ID	Proj PA	Features changed	Away runs	Home runs	Home win
home	batter	663757	4.3169265458799995	15	-0.1055	+0.1600	+0.0000
home	batter	700250	4.39200249876	16	-0.1553	+0.0661	+0.0000
home	batter	671277	4.03268693872	16	-0.1132	+0.1153	+0.0000
home	batter	641355	4.6330021808	15	-0.0060	+0.1446	+0.0000
home	batter	806146	4.17791648852	9	-0.0746	+0.0120	+0.0000
home	batter	669224	3.16397610504	16	-0.0252	+0.1063	+0.0000
home	batter	683011	3.59686403856	14	-0.0977	+0.0372	+0.0000
home	batter	682987	3.52489762612	17	-0.1033	-0.0629	-0.0000
home	batter	676609	3.512928555	15	-0.0801	+0.1098	+0.0000
away	batter	650490	5.0480430408	17	+0.2397	-0.0582	-0.0000
away	batter	666018	4.4953759796	17	-0.0093	-0.1351	-0.0000
away	batter	691406	4.3213202088000005	17	+0.0850	-0.0364	-0.0000
away	batter	683748	3.6865615296	16	-0.0313	+0.0050	-0.0000
away	batter	668723	3.061707498	16	+0.0581	-0.0147	-0.0000
away	batter	689414	4.0153107204000005	16	+0.0742	-0.1620	-0.0000
away	batter	676356	3.6083509252	16	-0.0058	-0.1166	-0.0000
away	batter	680700	3.3528675444	16	-0.0058	-0.0970	-0.0000
away	batter	670764	3.5385166144	16	-0.0061	-0.2066	-0.0000
home	pitcher	608331	-	10	-0.0291	+0.0592	+0.0000
away	pitcher	607259	-	10	+0.0447	+0.0920	-0.0000
home	reliever	677960	2.9129592413604457	10	-0.0594	-0.0111	+0.0000
home	reliever	621112	3.053861037658431	10	-0.0600	+0.0131	+0.0000
home	reliever	670167	2.733494848180907	10	+0.0307	+0.0123	-0.0000
home	reliever	687396	2.6252229415519293	10	-0.0770	-0.0133	+0.0000
home	reliever	670280	2.7601920306373673	10	-0.0486	+0.0367	+0.0000
home	reliever	701542	1.8168915838424369	10	+0.0186	+0.0098	+0.0000
home	reliever	642232	0.36337831676848736	10	-0.0034	-0.0118	-0.0000
away	reliever	592155	4.266428089887641	9	+0.0120	+0.0078	-0.0000
away	reliever	641329	4.214966292134831	9	-0.0209	+0.0098	+0.0000
away	reliever	642121	1.6149202247191012	9	+0.0243	-0.0028	-0.0000
away	reliever	571927	1.886932584269663	10	+0.0302	-0.0012	-0.0000
away	reliever	693855	2.3035280898876405	10	+0.0466	-0.0123	-0.0000
away	reliever	687330	0.6616516853932585	9	-0.0016	-0.0009	-0.0000
away	reliever	669330	0.31857303370786516	10	+0.0006	-0.0005	-0.0000

Club KPI edges

KPI	TB	NYY	Edge (H-A)	A spread	H spread
batter_barrel_rate_vs_breaking	+0.005	-0.070	-0.075	0.8453	0.6452
batter_barrel_rate_vs_fastball	-0.235	+0.358	+0.593	1.0013	1.1089
batter_barrel_rate_vs_lhp	-0.529	-0.211	+0.318	0.9641	0.4954
batter_barrel_rate_vs_offspeed	-0.196	+0.247	+0.444	0.7155	0.7601
batter_barrel_rate_vs_rhp	-0.014	+0.414	+0.428	0.8364	0.8669
batter_bat_speed	+0.174	-0.068	-0.243	1.5244	0.9016
batter_contact_rate_vs_breaking	+0.769	-0.183	-0.952	1.0317	0.9813
batter_contact_xwoba	-0.227	+0.260	+0.487	0.962	0.9866
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_breaking	+0.028	+0.206	+0.179	1.1313	0.9732
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_fastball	-0.478	+0.310	+0.788	0.878	0.9695
batter_exit_velocity_vs_fastball	-0.215	+0.233	+0.448	1.2914	1.014
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball	-0.109	+0.341	+0.450	0.9629	0.8393
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_slider	+0.198	+0.502	+0.304	0.8413	0.6753
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking	-0.023	+0.335	+0.359	1.3691	0.9346
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball	-0.281	+0.246	+0.527	1.2562	0.7895
batter_home_run_rate	+0.304	+0.293	-0.011	1.1257	0.9681
batter_strikeout_rate	+0.466	-0.212	-0.678	0.8081	0.9036
batter_walk_rate	+0.209	+0.495	+0.286	0.682	0.7311
batter_whiff_rate_vs_breaking	+0.861	-0.140	-1.001	0.8075	0.6296
batter_whiff_rate_vs_fastball	+0.437	-0.240	-0.676	0.8587	0.9986
batter_whiff_rate_vs_lhp	+0.863	-0.040	-0.903	0.5454	0.6783
batter_whiff_rate_vs_offspeed	+0.641	-0.113	-0.754	0.8644	0.8977
batter_whiff_rate_vs_rhp	+0.569	-0.147	-0.716	0.7544	0.9378
pitcher_barrel_rate_allowed	+0.649	+3.016	+2.367	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_lhh	+0.458	+0.844	+0.385	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_rhh	+0.557	+3.057	+2.500	-	-
pitcher_contact_xwoba_allowed	+0.436	+2.652	+2.216	-	-
pitcher_ground_ball_rate_induced	-1.002	+0.947	+1.950	-	-
pitcher_hard_hit_rate_allowed	+1.916	+2.191	+0.275	-	-
pitcher_home_run_rate_allowed	-0.051	+2.055	+2.106	-	-
pitcher_release_speed	-1.109	-0.843	+0.267	-	-
pitcher_strikeout_rate	-1.769	+0.132	+1.902	-	-
pitcher_walk_rate	+2.623	+0.590	-2.033	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate	-1.779	-0.219	+1.560	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_breaking	-1.120	-0.480	+0.640	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_fastball	-1.679	+0.450	+2.129	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_lhh	-1.437	-0.482	+0.954	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_rhh	-1.863	-0.171	+1.693	-	-

Lineups and their strongest readings

Batter	Pos	Proj PA	Composite z	Three strongest KPI readings
TB lineup vs Max Fried
1. Yandy Díaz	DH	4.65	+0.661	contact_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+3.15), whiff_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+2.60), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.15)
2. Jonathan Aranda	1B	4.55	+0.634	whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+1.78), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.75), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Very good (+1.58)
3. Junior Caminero	3B	4.45	+0.935	bat_speed Very good (+3.05), home_run_rate Very good (+2.48), exit_velocity_vs_fastball Very good (+2.08)
4. Victor Mesa Jr.	LF	4.35	+0.300	ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Very good (+1.46), home_run_rate Good (+1.31), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Good (+1.16)
5. Ryan Vilade	RF	4.25	+0.147	bat_speed Very good (+1.52), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Good (+1.05), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Good (+0.72)
6. Liam Hicks	C	4.15	-0.041	whiff_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+2.27), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.10), whiff_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+2.08)
7. Jonny DeLuca	CF	4.05	-0.443	walk_rate Poor (-1.41), barrel_rate_vs_lhp Poor (-1.37), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-1.30)
8. Richie Palacios	2B	3.98	-0.296	whiff_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.31), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Poor (-1.30), contact_xwoba_vs_fastball Poor (-1.23)
9. Taylor Walls	SS	3.90	-0.910	hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-2.81), bat_speed Poor (-2.31), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Poor (-1.91)
NYY lineup vs Nick Martinez
1. Trent Grisham	CF	4.65	+0.482	walk_rate Very good (+1.33), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Good (+1.24), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Good (+1.17)
2. Ben Rice	DH	4.55	+0.831	home_run_rate Very good (+2.65), barrel_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+2.15), contact_xwoba_vs_fastball Very good (+2.07)
3. Luis Garcia	1B	4.45	+0.000	barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Average (+0.00), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Average (+0.00), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Average (+0.00)
4. Cody Bellinger	LF	4.35	+0.273	ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Very good (+1.76), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Good (+1.25), strikeout_rate Good (+1.07)
5. George Lombard Jr.	SS	4.25	-0.030	whiff_rate_vs_fastball Below average (-1.23), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Average (+0.45), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Average (+0.10)
6. Austin Wells	C	4.15	-0.068	contact_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-1.55), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.33), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Poor (-1.21)
7. Anthony Volpe	2B	4.05	-0.184	home_run_rate Poor (-1.26), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Below average (-1.04), contact_rate_vs_breaking Good (+1.00)
8. Spencer Jones	RF	3.98	+0.285	whiff_rate_vs_rhp Poor (-2.59), barrel_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+2.40), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.37)
9. José Caballero	3B	3.90	-0.640	exit_velocity_vs_fastball Poor (-2.19), bat_speed Poor (-1.79), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-1.42)

Edge is home club minus away club on that KPI, in standard deviations, after plate-appearance weighting. Spread is the dispersion inside a club, which a mean alone discards and which is roughly three times larger than the between-game variation of the mean itself.
generated 2026-10-08T09:14:26.574345+00:00 · kpi_slate_report_v3