MLB Prediction System

KPI Player Effects

How each KPI adds or removes a hit, a strikeout, a walk or a home run, per player, against the arm he actually faces

Slate 20261005Games 2Schema kpi_player_effects_v2Built 2026-10-06 17:19Z

What this document measures

Every counting stat below has a KPI on both sides of the matchup, measured on the same denominator: a plate appearance. That is what lets the hitter's reading and the starter's reading be combined instead of listed side by side. The combination is the standard Log5 odds ratio, which is exactly additive in log odds, so the hitter's push and the pitcher's push separate cleanly and the remainder is reported rather than absorbed.

Hits use a derived KPI. Hit rate is not in config/kpi_registry.json: registering it would move the registry hash recorded in the model manifest and fail the live layer closed until a retrain. It is computed with the same strict as-of cutoff and the same shrinkage, stored in its own namespace, and never read by the runtime.

These per-player numbers are measured, not published. The live KPI layer moves team runs and the win probability. The hitter lines in the artifact were then scaled by one club-wide ratio, identical for the leadoff hitter and the ninth bat. The per-hitter columns here are what that single ratio discards.

The whole staff, not only the starter. A hitter takes roughly four in ten of his plate appearances against relievers. Each club's bullpen here is the pregame bullpen: the seven busiest healthy relievers of the last 30 days, the same arms the KPI forecast weighted and the simulation pitched, each sharing the relief work by the batters faced the forecast gave him. The bullpen's workload tonight is the club's real mean staff batters faced minus the starter's projection. The published staff alone holds only the relievers one simulation draw used, so it is shown beside the bullpen for comparison, not used.

Reading a delta. Own skill is measured against the league. The opponent effect is measured against the hitter's own rate, which is the only one that may adjust a published line, because the published line already carries his own skill. Adding both to a published line would count the hitter twice.

Coverage. 36 hitter-versus-starter pairings; 34 have both sides above their sample floor on hits and 36 carry a non-zero hit adjustment. A side below its floor falls back to the league rate and is marked n<floor, which is a stated absence of evidence rather than a measured zero. All four outcome metrics have value documents. Handedness source: model bundle pitcher_hands.json.

Largest per-player movements on the slate

Hitter	Club	Metric	Starter faced (+ bullpen)	Published	KPI adjusted, whole staff	Δ	Hitter band	Pitcher band	Game
Kyle Teel	CHW	Strikeouts	Gavin Williams	1.730	2.323	+0.592	averagen<floor	Very good	20261005_CHW@CLE
Munetaka Murakami	CHW	Strikeouts	Gavin Williams	1.873	2.383	+0.509	Poor	Very good	20261005_CHW@CLE
Colson Montgomery	CHW	Strikeouts	Gavin Williams	1.683	2.139	+0.456	Poor	Very good	20261005_CHW@CLE
Miguel Vargas	CHW	Strikeouts	Gavin Williams	0.992	1.355	+0.363	Good	Very good	20261005_CHW@CLE
Chase Meidroth	CHW	Strikeouts	Gavin Williams	1.054	1.417	+0.363	Average	Very good	20261005_CHW@CLE
Braden Montgomery	CHW	Strikeouts	Gavin Williams	0.995	1.349	+0.354	Average	Very good	20261005_CHW@CLE
Andrew Benintendi	CHW	Strikeouts	Gavin Williams	1.021	1.361	+0.341	Average	Very good	20261005_CHW@CLE
Tristan Peters	CHW	Strikeouts	Gavin Williams	0.924	1.262	+0.338	Good	Very good	20261005_CHW@CLE
Sam Antonacci	CHW	Strikeouts	Gavin Williams	0.842	1.167	+0.325	Good	Very good	20261005_CHW@CLE
Jonathan Aranda	TB	Strikeouts	Cam Schlittler	1.316	1.623	+0.308	Average	Very good	20261005_NYY@TB
Jonny DeLuca	TB	Strikeouts	Cam Schlittler	1.039	1.294	+0.255	Average	Very good	20261005_NYY@TB
Victor Mesa Jr.	TB	Strikeouts	Cam Schlittler	0.986	1.231	+0.245	Average	Very good	20261005_NYY@TB
Yandy Díaz	TB	Strikeouts	Cam Schlittler	0.881	1.123	+0.242	Very good	Very good	20261005_NYY@TB
Taylor Walls	TB	Strikeouts	Cam Schlittler	1.033	1.274	+0.242	Average	Very good	20261005_NYY@TB
Junior Caminero	TB	Strikeouts	Cam Schlittler	0.901	1.133	+0.232	Good	Very good	20261005_NYY@TB
Richie Palacios	TB	Strikeouts	Cam Schlittler	0.695	0.877	+0.182	Good	Very good	20261005_NYY@TB
Liam Hicks	TB	Strikeouts	Cam Schlittler	0.515	0.665	+0.150	Very good	Very good	20261005_NYY@TB
Chandler Simpson	TB	Strikeouts	Cam Schlittler	0.451	0.587	+0.136	Very good	Very good	20261005_NYY@TB
Chandler Simpson	TB	Hits	Cam Schlittler	0.970	0.870	-0.100	Very good	Very good	20261005_NYY@TB
Yandy Díaz	TB	Hits	Cam Schlittler	0.949	0.850	-0.099	Very good	Very good	20261005_NYY@TB

Per game

Club Player

20261005_CHW@CLE — team layer applied; runs moved away -0.2841 / home 0.2723

Anthony Kay (LHP, 20.7 BF)
H 0.2242 Below average · SO 0.1837 Below average · BB 0.0818 Average · HR 0.0305 Average

Gavin Williams (RHP, 23.2 BF)
H 0.1978 Good · SO 0.3179 Very good · BB 0.0854 Average · HR 0.0330 Below average

CHW hitters vs Gavin Williams and the bullpen

The pipeline applied one club-wide ×0.929 to every CHW hitter line. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Sam Antonacci	LF	Gavin Williams + bullpen	4.20	0.841 → 0.775	-0.066	0.842 → 1.167	+0.325	0.346 → 0.351	+0.004	0.068 → 0.069	+0.001

Kyle Teel	C	Gavin Williams + bullpen	4.00	0.707 → 0.650	-0.056	1.730 → 2.323	+0.592	0.417 → 0.422	+0.005	0.102 → 0.104	+0.002

Miguel Vargas	3B	Gavin Williams + bullpen	4.25	0.831 → 0.764	-0.067	0.992 → 1.355	+0.363	0.528 → 0.535	+0.006	0.154 → 0.157	+0.003

Munetaka Murakami	1B	Gavin Williams + bullpen	4.37	0.724 → 0.665	-0.059	1.873 → 2.383	+0.509	0.632 → 0.640	+0.007	0.211 → 0.215	+0.004

Andrew Benintendi	DH	Gavin Williams + bullpen	3.45	0.706 → 0.650	-0.056	1.021 → 1.361	+0.341	0.308 → 0.312	+0.004	0.088 → 0.090	+0.002

Tristan Peters	CF	Gavin Williams + bullpen	3.72	0.756 → 0.697	-0.060	0.924 → 1.262	+0.338	0.298 → 0.302	+0.004	0.083 → 0.085	+0.002

Braden Montgomery	RF	Gavin Williams + bullpen	3.78	0.720 → 0.662	-0.058	0.995 → 1.349	+0.354	0.374 → 0.379	+0.005	0.069 → 0.070	+0.001

Chase Meidroth	2B	Gavin Williams + bullpen	3.68	0.781 → 0.720	-0.061	1.054 → 1.417	+0.363	0.327 → 0.331	+0.004	0.083 → 0.085	+0.002

Colson Montgomery	SS	Gavin Williams + bullpen	3.52	0.592 → 0.544	-0.049	1.683 → 2.139	+0.456	0.309 → 0.312	+0.004	0.129 → 0.132	+0.003

CHW starter against the CLE lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Anthony Kay	Starter	CLE	20.68	5.084 → 5.173	+0.089	3.531 → 2.960	-0.572	1.555 → 1.549	-0.006	0.514 → 0.485	-0.029

CHW bullpen: the full relief corps (7 arms)

Exposure. Starter 20.7 batters faced, bullpen 15.7 (43.2% of the game), from the club's real 36.4 staff batters faced per game over 1 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 38.6% across 2 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	pregame bullpen, published staff	16	2	23.5%	3.69
Erick Fedde	Reliever	pregame bullpen	33	2	22.8%	3.59
Jordan Hicks	Setup Man	pregame bullpen, published staff	0	0	15.2%	2.39
Bryan Hudson	Reliever	pregame bullpen	16	5	13.7%	2.16
Grant Taylor	Reliever	pregame bullpen	0	0	10.3%	1.62
David Sandlin	Reliever	pregame bullpen	5	1	7.6%	1.19
Hagen Smith	Reliever	pregame bullpen	49	8	6.8%	1.07

CHW relievers against the CLE lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Sean Newcomb	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	CLE (23% of relief)	3.69	1.889 → 1.923	+0.034	1.485 → 1.255	-0.230	0.562 → 0.560	-0.002	0.033 → 0.031	-0.002

Erick Fedde	Reliever	CLE (23% of relief)	3.59	0.808 → 0.822	+0.014	0.610 → 0.510	-0.100	0.310 → 0.309	-0.001	0.125 → 0.118	-0.007

Jordan Hicks	Setup Man	CLE (15% of relief)	2.39	0.912 → 0.928	+0.016	1.234 → 1.053	-0.180	0.599 → 0.596	-0.002	0.098 → 0.092	-0.005

Bryan Hudson	Reliever	CLE (14% of relief)	2.16	0.494 → 0.502	+0.009	0.458 → 0.386	-0.072	0.157 → 0.157	-0.001	0.055 → 0.052	-0.003

Grant Taylor	Reliever	CLE (10% of relief)	1.62	0.321 → 0.327	+0.006	0.483 → 0.414	-0.069	0.146 → 0.145	-0.001	0.043 → 0.041	-0.002

David Sandlin	Reliever	CLE (8% of relief)	1.19	0.258 → 0.263	+0.004	0.279 → 0.236	-0.043	0.099 → 0.099	0	0.040 → 0.038	-0.002

Hagen Smith	Reliever	CLE (7% of relief)	1.07	0.231 → 0.235	+0.004	0.236 → 0.199	-0.037	0.095 → 0.094	0	0.032 → 0.031	-0.002

CLE hitters vs Anthony Kay and the bullpen

The pipeline applied one club-wide ×1.0545 to every CLE hitter line. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Steven Kwan	CF	Anthony Kay + bullpen	4.40	1.063 → 1.076	+0.014	0.441 → 0.398	-0.042	0.517 → 0.501	-0.015	0.047 → 0.046	-0.002

José Ramírez	3B	Anthony Kay + bullpen	4.54	0.983 → 0.996	+0.013	0.572 → 0.519	-0.053	0.533 → 0.517	-0.016	0.104 → 0.101	-0.004

Chase DeLauter	RF	Anthony Kay + bullpen	4.23	1.069 → 1.082	+0.014	0.655 → 0.595	-0.060	0.407 → 0.395	-0.012	0.112 → 0.108	-0.004

Jo Adell	DH	Anthony Kay + bullpen	4.11	0.974 → 0.987	+0.013	0.957 → 0.877	-0.081	0.271 → 0.262	-0.009	0.134 → 0.129	-0.004

Nathaniel Lowe	1B	Anthony Kay + bullpen	3.84	0.923 → 0.935	+0.012	0.903 → 0.827	-0.077	0.321 → 0.311	-0.010	0.123 → 0.119	-0.004

Angel Martínez	LF	Anthony Kay + bullpen	3.87	0.970 → 0.983	+0.013	0.854 → 0.780	-0.073	0.201 → 0.194	-0.006	0.146 → 0.142	-0.005

Travis Bazzana	2B	Anthony Kay + bullpen	3.77	0.868 → 0.879	+0.011	0.789 → 0.720	-0.069	0.366 → 0.355	-0.011	0.100 → 0.097	-0.003

Patrick Bailey	C	Anthony Kay + bullpen	3.68	0.821 → 0.832	+0.011	0.924 → 0.849	-0.075	0.330 → 0.319	-0.010	0.106 → 0.103	-0.004

Brayan Rocchio	SS	Anthony Kay + bullpen	3.46	0.831 → 0.842	+0.011	0.509 → 0.462	-0.047	0.269 → 0.261	-0.008	0.083 → 0.080	-0.003

CLE starter against the CHW lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Gavin Williams	Starter	CHW	23.19	3.926 → 3.880	-0.046	8.606 → 8.931	+0.324	2.254 → 2.568	+0.314	0.460 → 0.504	+0.044

CLE bullpen: the full relief corps (7 arms)

Exposure. Starter 23.2 batters faced, bullpen 14.2 (38.0% of the game), from the club's real 37.4 staff batters faced per game over 21 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 35.7% across 3 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Tim Herrin	Middle Reliever	pregame bullpen, published staff	35	9	19.0%	2.70
Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	pregame bullpen, published staff	34	9	18.2%	2.58
Daniel Espino	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	pregame bullpen, published staff	17	5	18.0%	2.56
Cade Smith	Reliever	pregame bullpen	43	11	17.7%	2.51
Hunter Gaddis	Reliever	pregame bullpen	46	12	17.5%	2.49
Shawn Armstrong	Reliever	pregame bullpen	8	3	5.1%	0.72
Matt Festa	Reliever	pregame bullpen	33	6	4.5%	0.63

CLE relievers against the CHW lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Tim Herrin	Middle Reliever	CHW (19% of relief)	2.70	0.868 → 0.858	-0.010	0.974 → 1.015	+0.042	0.493 → 0.560	+0.067	0.070 → 0.077	+0.007

Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	CHW (18% of relief)	2.58	0.472 → 0.466	-0.006	1.588 → 1.646	+0.058	0.662 → 0.750	+0.087	0.046 → 0.050	+0.004

Daniel Espino	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	CHW (18% of relief)	2.56	0.978 → 0.967	-0.011	1.634 → 1.705	+0.071	0.396 → 0.451	+0.055	0.182 → 0.199	+0.017

Cade Smith	Reliever	CHW (18% of relief)	2.51	0.480 → 0.474	-0.006	0.833 → 0.864	+0.031	0.195 → 0.222	+0.027	0.064 → 0.070	+0.006

Hunter Gaddis	Reliever	CHW (18% of relief)	2.49	0.532 → 0.526	-0.006	0.553 → 0.577	+0.024	0.219 → 0.249	+0.030	0.073 → 0.080	+0.007

Shawn Armstrong	Reliever	CHW (5% of relief)	0.72	0.150 → 0.149	-0.002	0.158 → 0.165	+0.007	0.076 → 0.086	+0.010	0.020 → 0.022	+0.002

Matt Festa	Reliever	CHW (4% of relief)	0.63	0.139 → 0.138	-0.002	0.146 → 0.153	+0.006	0.051 → 0.058	+0.007	0.017 → 0.019	+0.002

20261005_NYY@TB — team layer applied; runs moved away 0.3329 / home 0.051

Cam Schlittler (RHP, 21.5 BF)
H 0.1805 Very good · SO 0.3029 Very good · BB 0.0701 Good · HR 0.0249 Good

Freddy Peralta (RHP, 21.7 BF)
H 0.2195 Average · SO 0.2144 Average · BB 0.0868 Average · HR 0.0311 Average

NYY hitters vs Freddy Peralta and the bullpen

The pipeline applied one club-wide ×1.0832 to every NYY hitter line. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Ben Rice	DH	Freddy Peralta + bullpen	4.28	1.019 → 1.002	-0.017	0.946 → 0.952	+0.006	0.499 → 0.467	-0.032	0.275 → 0.279	+0.003

Cody Bellinger	LF	Freddy Peralta + bullpen	4.38	1.087 → 1.069	-0.018	0.704 → 0.709	+0.005	0.423 → 0.395	-0.028	0.164 → 0.166	+0.002

Luis García Jr.	1B	Freddy Peralta + bullpen	4.09	1.092 → 1.074	-0.018	0.760 → 0.765	+0.005	0.219 → 0.204	-0.015	0.215 → 0.218	+0.003

Spencer Jones	RF	Freddy Peralta + bullpen	4.10	0.960 → 0.944	-0.016	1.384 → 1.391	+0.007	0.342 → 0.319	-0.023	0.159 → 0.161	+0.002

George Lombard Jr.	SS	Freddy Peralta + bullpen	4.03	0.973 → 0.957	-0.017	1.028 → 1.034	+0.006	0.262 → 0.245	-0.018	0.158 → 0.160	+0.002

Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2B	Freddy Peralta + bullpen	3.74	0.817 → 0.802	-0.014	1.039 → 1.044	+0.006	0.363 → 0.339	-0.024	0.153 → 0.155	+0.002

Trent Grisham	CF	Freddy Peralta + bullpen	3.82	0.791 → 0.778	-0.014	0.722 → 0.726	+0.005	0.416 → 0.389	-0.027	0.136 → 0.137	+0.002

Austin Wells	C	Freddy Peralta + bullpen	3.28	0.674 → 0.662	-0.012	0.790 → 0.794	+0.005	0.348 → 0.325	-0.023	0.121 → 0.123	+0.002

Ryan McMahon	3B	Freddy Peralta + bullpen	3.30	0.701 → 0.689	-0.012	0.908 → 0.913	+0.005	0.262 → 0.244	-0.018	0.106 → 0.107	+0.001

NYY starter against the TB lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Cam Schlittler	Starter	TB	21.46	2.854 → 3.050	+0.196	7.006 → 5.737	-1.268	1.500 → 1.497	-0.003	0.294 → 0.295	+0.001

NYY bullpen: the full relief corps (7 arms)

Exposure. Starter 21.5 batters faced, bullpen 14.7 (40.7% of the game), from the club's real 36.2 staff batters faced per game over 21 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 37.0% across 3 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Will Warren	Reliever	pregame bullpen	21	2	18.9%	2.79
David Bednar	Reliever	pregame bullpen	35	8	17.6%	2.59
Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	pregame bullpen, published staff	42	9	17.5%	2.58
Brent Headrick	Setup Man	pregame bullpen, published staff	40	12	16.9%	2.50
John Schreiber	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	pregame bullpen, published staff	43	11	15.2%	2.25
Ryan Weathers	Reliever	pregame bullpen	3	1	11.4%	1.67
Ryan Yarbrough	Reliever	pregame bullpen	30	5	2.5%	0.37

NYY relievers against the TB lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Will Warren	Reliever	TB (19% of relief)	2.79	0.639 → 0.680	+0.041	0.647 → 0.520	-0.127	0.225 → 0.225	-0.001	0.086 → 0.086	0

David Bednar	Reliever	TB (18% of relief)	2.59	0.525 → 0.560	+0.035	0.679 → 0.551	-0.129	0.203 → 0.202	0	0.063 → 0.063	0

Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	TB (17% of relief)	2.58	0.914 → 0.975	+0.061	0.848 → 0.677	-0.171	0.465 → 0.464	-0.001	0.067 → 0.067	0

Brent Headrick	Setup Man	TB (17% of relief)	2.50	0.585 → 0.624	+0.039	0.757 → 0.617	-0.140	0.329 → 0.329	-0.001	0.068 → 0.068	0

John Schreiber	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	TB (15% of relief)	2.25	0.908 → 0.968	+0.060	0.591 → 0.469	-0.122	0.340 → 0.340	-0.001	0.091 → 0.091	0

Ryan Weathers	Reliever	TB (11% of relief)	1.67	0.377 → 0.401	+0.024	0.415 → 0.335	-0.080	0.120 → 0.120	0	0.052 → 0.052	0

Ryan Yarbrough	Reliever	TB (3% of relief)	0.37	0.077 → 0.082	+0.005	0.072 → 0.058	-0.015	0.032 → 0.032	0	0.009 → 0.009	0

TB hitters vs Cam Schlittler and the bullpen

The pipeline applied one club-wide ×1.017 to every TB hitter line. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Yandy Díaz	DH	Cam Schlittler + bullpen	4.36	0.949 → 0.850	-0.099	0.881 → 1.123	+0.242	0.280 → 0.240	-0.040	0.139 → 0.119	-0.020

Jonathan Aranda	1B	Cam Schlittler + bullpen	4.18	0.848 → 0.758	-0.090	1.316 → 1.623	+0.308	0.341 → 0.293	-0.048	0.144 → 0.123	-0.021

Junior Caminero	3B	Cam Schlittler + bullpen	4.01	0.852 → 0.762	-0.091	0.901 → 1.133	+0.232	0.339 → 0.292	-0.047	0.229 → 0.196	-0.033

Liam Hicks	C	Cam Schlittler + bullpen	3.93	0.829 → 0.741	-0.088	0.515 → 0.665	+0.150	0.321 → 0.276	-0.045	0.136 → 0.116	-0.020

Chandler Simpson	LF	Cam Schlittler + bullpen	3.99	0.970 → 0.870	-0.100	0.451 → 0.587	+0.136	0.167 → 0.143	-0.025	0.038 → 0.032	-0.006

Victor Mesa Jr.	RF	Cam Schlittler + bullpen	3.84	0.801 → 0.715	-0.086	0.986 → 1.231	+0.245	0.265 → 0.228	-0.038	0.177 → 0.152	-0.026

Jonny DeLuca	CF	Cam Schlittler + bullpen	3.75	0.823 → 0.736	-0.087	1.039 → 1.294	+0.255	0.169 → 0.144	-0.025	0.126 → 0.108	-0.018

Richie Palacios	2B	Cam Schlittler + bullpen	3.46	0.699 → 0.623	-0.076	0.695 → 0.877	+0.182	0.305 → 0.263	-0.043	0.098 → 0.084	-0.014

Taylor Walls	SS	Cam Schlittler + bullpen	3.40	0.664 → 0.591	-0.073	1.033 → 1.274	+0.242	0.285 → 0.245	-0.040	0.051 → 0.043	-0.008

TB starter against the NYY lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Freddy Peralta	Starter	NYY	21.68	3.814 → 3.803	-0.011	4.724 → 5.113	+0.389	1.829 → 2.002	+0.173	0.398 → 0.481	+0.083

TB bullpen: the full relief corps (7 arms)

Exposure. Starter 21.7 batters faced, bullpen 13.8 (38.9% of the game), from the club's real 35.5 staff batters faced per game over 22 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 38.3% across 3 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Bryan Baker	Closer	pregame bullpen, published staff	30	8	29.6%	4.08
Steven Matz	Middle Reliever	pregame bullpen, published staff	41	8	20.4%	2.81
Cole Sulser	Setup Man	pregame bullpen, published staff	39	10	17.3%	2.38
Cam Booser	Reliever	pregame bullpen	23	9	12.2%	1.69
Kevin Kelly	Reliever	pregame bullpen	36	10	11.6%	1.60
Ian Seymour	Reliever	pregame bullpen	1	1	6.5%	0.90
Tyler Wells	Reliever	pregame bullpen	14	3	2.4%	0.33

TB relievers against the NYY lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Bryan Baker	Closer	NYY (30% of relief)	4.08	0.547 → 0.545	-0.002	0.960 → 1.036	+0.075	0.292 → 0.319	+0.028	0.049 → 0.059	+0.010

Steven Matz	Middle Reliever	NYY (20% of relief)	2.81	1.145 → 1.142	-0.003	1.141 → 1.238	+0.098	0.305 → 0.334	+0.029	0.240 → 0.290	+0.050

Cole Sulser	Setup Man	NYY (17% of relief)	2.38	0.855 → 0.853	-0.002	1.099 → 1.187	+0.088	0.312 → 0.342	+0.030	0.104 → 0.126	+0.022

Cam Booser	Reliever	NYY (12% of relief)	1.69	0.336 → 0.335	-0.001	0.455 → 0.490	+0.035	0.109 → 0.119	+0.011	0.052 → 0.063	+0.011

Kevin Kelly	Reliever	NYY (12% of relief)	1.60	0.331 → 0.330	-0.001	0.359 → 0.388	+0.029	0.091 → 0.100	+0.009	0.043 → 0.052	+0.009

Ian Seymour	Reliever	NYY (6% of relief)	0.90	0.189 → 0.188	-0.001	0.249 → 0.268	+0.019	0.063 → 0.069	+0.006	0.035 → 0.042	+0.007

Tyler Wells	Reliever	NYY (2% of relief)	0.33	0.065 → 0.065	0	0.085 → 0.092	+0.007	0.025 → 0.027	+0.002	0.010 → 0.012	+0.002

Measured from published artifacts and stored KPI values. Nothing recomputed. Per-player adjustments are a measurement of the catalog, not the published line.