MLB Prediction System

KPI Player Effects

How each KPI adds or removes a hit, a strikeout, a walk or a home run, per player, against the arm he actually faces

Slate 20261001Games 4Schema kpi_player_effects_v2Built 2026-10-06 13:59Z

What this document measures

Every counting stat below has a KPI on both sides of the matchup, measured on the same denominator: a plate appearance. That is what lets the hitter's reading and the starter's reading be combined instead of listed side by side. The combination is the standard Log5 odds ratio, which is exactly additive in log odds, so the hitter's push and the pitcher's push separate cleanly and the remainder is reported rather than absorbed.

Hits use a derived KPI. Hit rate is not in config/kpi_registry.json: registering it would move the registry hash recorded in the model manifest and fail the live layer closed until a retrain. It is computed with the same strict as-of cutoff and the same shrinkage, stored in its own namespace, and never read by the runtime.

These per-player numbers are measured, not published. The live KPI layer moves team runs and the win probability. The hitter lines in the artifact were then scaled by one club-wide ratio, identical for the leadoff hitter and the ninth bat. The per-hitter columns here are what that single ratio discards.

The whole staff, not only the starter. A hitter takes roughly four in ten of his plate appearances against relievers. Each club's bullpen here is the pregame bullpen: the seven busiest healthy relievers of the last 30 days, the same arms the KPI forecast weighted and the simulation pitched, each sharing the relief work by the batters faced the forecast gave him. The bullpen's workload tonight is the club's real mean staff batters faced minus the starter's projection. The published staff alone holds only the relievers one simulation draw used, so it is shown beside the bullpen for comparison, not used.

Reading a delta. Own skill is measured against the league. The opponent effect is measured against the hitter's own rate, which is the only one that may adjust a published line, because the published line already carries his own skill. Adding both to a published line would count the hitter twice.

Coverage. 72 hitter-versus-starter pairings; 53 have both sides above their sample floor on hits and 63 carry a non-zero hit adjustment. A side below its floor falls back to the league rate and is marked n<floor, which is a stated absence of evidence rather than a measured zero. All four outcome metrics have value documents. Handedness source: model bundle pitcher_hands.json.

Largest per-player movements on the slate

Hitter	Club	Metric	Starter faced (+ bullpen)	Published	KPI adjusted, whole staff	Δ	Hitter band	Pitcher band	Game
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CHC	Strikeouts	Nick Pivetta	1.281	1.562	+0.281	Below average	Good	20261001_CHC@SD
Ian Happ	CHC	Strikeouts	Nick Pivetta	1.314	1.584	+0.270	Below average	Good	20261001_CHC@SD
Seiya Suzuki	CHC	Strikeouts	Nick Pivetta	1.141	1.397	+0.256	Average	Good	20261001_CHC@SD
Michael Busch	CHC	Strikeouts	Nick Pivetta	0.987	1.212	+0.225	Average	Good	20261001_CHC@SD
Dansby Swanson	CHC	Strikeouts	Nick Pivetta	0.979	1.203	+0.223	Average	Good	20261001_CHC@SD
Kyle Teel	CHW	Strikeouts	Hunter Brown	1.489	1.700	+0.210	averagen<floor	Good	20261001_CHW@HOU
Munetaka Murakami	CHW	Strikeouts	Hunter Brown	1.750	1.952	+0.202	Poor	Good	20261001_CHW@HOU
Carson Kelly	CHC	Strikeouts	Nick Pivetta	0.780	0.975	+0.195	Good	Good	20261001_CHC@SD
Alex Bregman	CHC	Strikeouts	Nick Pivetta	0.736	0.926	+0.190	Good	Good	20261001_CHC@SD
Matt Shaw	CHC	Strikeouts	Nick Pivetta	0.782	0.963	+0.181	averagen<floor	Good	20261001_CHC@SD
Colson Montgomery	CHW	Strikeouts	Hunter Brown	1.482	1.652	+0.171	Poor	Good	20261001_CHW@HOU
Munetaka Murakami	CHW	Walks	Hunter Brown	0.829	0.987	+0.159	Very good	Poor	20261001_CHW@HOU
Chase Meidroth	CHW	Strikeouts	Hunter Brown	1.027	1.173	+0.146	Average	Good	20261001_CHW@HOU
Andrew Benintendi	CHW	Strikeouts	Hunter Brown	1.018	1.159	+0.141	Average	Good	20261001_CHW@HOU
Miguel Vargas	CHW	Strikeouts	Hunter Brown	0.909	1.045	+0.136	Good	Good	20261001_CHW@HOU
Miguel Vargas	CHW	Walks	Hunter Brown	0.690	0.826	+0.136	Very good	Poor	20261001_CHW@HOU
Braden Montgomery	CHW	Strikeouts	Hunter Brown	0.878	1.006	+0.128	Average	Good	20261001_CHW@HOU
Tristan Peters	CHW	Strikeouts	Hunter Brown	0.854	0.982	+0.128	Good	Good	20261001_CHW@HOU
Jahmai Jones	BOS	Strikeouts	Gerrit Cole	1.324	1.440	+0.117	averagen<floor	Good	20261001_BOS@NYY
Sam Antonacci	CHW	Strikeouts	Hunter Brown	0.743	0.859	+0.116	Good	Good	20261001_CHW@HOU

Per game

Club Player

20261001_BOS@NYY — team layer withheld (no gate recorded); runs moved away 0 / home 0

Ranger Suarez (LHP, 23.4 BF)
H 0.2139 Average · SO 0.2279 Average · BB 0.0780 Good · HR 0.0223 Very good

Gerrit Cole (RHP, 23.7 BF)
H 0.2199 Average · SO 0.2482 Good · BB 0.0577 Very good · HR 0.0368 Poor

BOS hitters vs Gerrit Cole and the bullpen

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to BOS hitter lines. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Wilyer Abreu	RF	Gerrit Cole + bullpen	4.03	0.852 → 0.849	-0.003	1.015 → 1.106	+0.091	0.366 → 0.281	-0.085	0.150 → 0.165	+0.014

Jahmai Jones	DH	Gerrit Cole + bullpen	3.58	0.765 → 0.763	-0.003	1.324 → 1.440	+0.117	0.247 → 0.189	-0.058	0.138 → 0.151	+0.013

Adley Rutschman	C	Gerrit Cole + bullpen	4.17	0.877 → 0.874	-0.003	0.849 → 0.929	+0.080	0.336 → 0.258	-0.079	0.141 → 0.154	+0.013

Willson Contreras	1B	Gerrit Cole + bullpen	3.97	0.855 → 0.852	-0.003	1.187 → 1.288	+0.101	0.355 → 0.273	-0.082	0.195 → 0.213	+0.018

Caleb Durbin	3B	Gerrit Cole + bullpen	3.59	0.771 → 0.768	-0.003	0.629 → 0.691	+0.062	0.263 → 0.201	-0.062	0.107 → 0.117	+0.010

Trevor Story	SS	Gerrit Cole + bullpen	3.60	0.804 → 0.801	-0.003	1.347 → 1.451	+0.104	0.174 → 0.132	-0.042	0.116 → 0.127	+0.011

Nick Sogard	2B	Gerrit Cole + bullpen	3.92	0.841 → 0.838	-0.003	0.949 → 1.034	+0.085	0.369 → 0.283	-0.085	0.112 → 0.122	+0.011

Ceddanne Rafaela	CF	Gerrit Cole + bullpen	3.88	0.990 → 0.987	-0.003	1.039 → 1.132	+0.093	0.162 → 0.123	-0.039	0.128 → 0.140	+0.012

Nate Eaton	LF	Gerrit Cole + bullpen	3.25	0.676 → 0.674	-0.002	0.965 → 1.050	+0.085	0.280 → 0.214	-0.066	0.106 → 0.116	+0.010

BOS starter against the NYY lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Ranger Suarez	Starter	NYY	23.45	4.758 → 4.744	-0.014	4.836 → 5.224	+0.388	1.656 → 1.815	+0.159	0.486 → 0.589	+0.103

BOS bullpen: the full relief corps (13 arms)

Exposure. Starter 23.4 batters faced, bullpen 13.6 (36.7% of the game), from the club's real 37.0 staff batters faced per game over 24 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 34.8% across 3 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Wyatt Olds	Reliever	recent relief	47	9	12.5%	1.69
Erik Miller	Setup Man	published staff, recent relief	42	9	11.2%	1.52
Greg Weissert	Reliever	recent relief	41	9	11.0%	1.49
Alec Gamboa	Reliever	recent relief	33	7	9.0%	1.22
Jovani Morán	Reliever	recent relief	29	7	8.0%	1.08
Raymond Burgos	Reliever	recent relief	28	4	7.7%	1.05
Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	published staff, recent relief	27	8	7.5%	1.01
Patrick Sandoval	Reliever	recent relief	26	2	7.2%	0.98
Brayan Bello	Reliever	recent relief	26	3	7.2%	0.98
Aroldis Chapman	Closer	published staff, recent relief	24	6	6.7%	0.91
Jedixson Paez	Reliever	recent relief	18	1	5.2%	0.71
Jake Bennett	Reliever	recent relief	14	1	4.2%	0.58
Tyron Guerrero	Reliever	recent relief	7	2	2.5%	0.34

BOS relievers against the NYY lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Wyatt Olds	Reliever	NYY (12% of relief)	1.69	0.367 → 0.366	-0.001	0.374 → 0.405	+0.030	0.150 → 0.165	+0.014	0.051 → 0.062	+0.011

Erik Miller	Setup Man	NYY (11% of relief)	1.52	0.876 → 0.873	-0.003	1.355 → 1.453	+0.098	0.662 → 0.721	+0.060	0.105 → 0.128	+0.022

Greg Weissert	Reliever	NYY (11% of relief)	1.49	0.322 → 0.321	-0.001	0.345 → 0.373	+0.028	0.123 → 0.134	+0.012	0.046 → 0.055	+0.010

Alec Gamboa	Reliever	NYY (9% of relief)	1.22	0.261 → 0.260	-0.001	0.241 → 0.261	+0.020	0.109 → 0.120	+0.010	0.031 → 0.038	+0.007

Jovani Morán	Reliever	NYY (8% of relief)	1.08	0.203 → 0.203	-0.001	0.278 → 0.300	+0.021	0.119 → 0.130	+0.011	0.034 → 0.041	+0.007

Raymond Burgos	Reliever	NYY (8% of relief)	1.05	0.228 → 0.227	-0.001	0.232 → 0.251	+0.019	0.093 → 0.102	+0.009	0.032 → 0.038	+0.007

Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	NYY (7% of relief)	1.01	0.799 → 0.797	-0.002	1.159 → 1.246	+0.086	0.219 → 0.240	+0.021	0.044 → 0.054	+0.009

Patrick Sandoval	Reliever	NYY (7% of relief)	0.98	0.239 → 0.238	-0.001	0.222 → 0.240	+0.018	0.094 → 0.103	+0.009	0.026 → 0.032	+0.005

Brayan Bello	Reliever	NYY (7% of relief)	0.98	0.230 → 0.229	-0.001	0.185 → 0.200	+0.016	0.074 → 0.081	+0.007	0.026 → 0.032	+0.005

Aroldis Chapman	Closer	NYY (7% of relief)	0.91	0.507 → 0.505	-0.002	1.501 → 1.609	+0.107	0.460 → 0.503	+0.043	0.043 → 0.052	+0.009

Jedixson Paez	Reliever	NYY (5% of relief)	0.71	0.154 → 0.154	-0.001	0.157 → 0.170	+0.013	0.063 → 0.069	+0.006	0.022 → 0.026	+0.004

Jake Bennett	Reliever	NYY (4% of relief)	0.58	0.131 → 0.130	0	0.117 → 0.126	+0.010	0.036 → 0.039	+0.004	0.017 → 0.021	+0.004

Tyron Guerrero	Reliever	NYY (2% of relief)	0.34	0.074 → 0.074	0	0.082 → 0.088	+0.006	0.023 → 0.025	+0.002	0.009 → 0.011	+0.002

NYY hitters vs Ranger Suarez and the bullpen

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to NYY hitter lines. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Spencer Jones	RF	Ranger Suarez + bullpen	4.09	0.901 → 0.888	-0.013	1.631 → 1.698	+0.067	0.334 → 0.310	-0.023	0.166 → 0.133	-0.033

Luis García Jr.	1B	Ranger Suarez + bullpen	4.08	0.968 → 0.954	-0.014	0.918 → 0.967	+0.048	0.212 → 0.197	-0.015	0.217 → 0.175	-0.042

Cody Bellinger	LF	Ranger Suarez + bullpen	4.37	0.996 → 0.982	-0.015	0.865 → 0.912	+0.046	0.410 → 0.382	-0.028	0.141 → 0.113	-0.028

George Lombard Jr.	SS	Ranger Suarez + bullpen	4.06	0.900 → 0.886	-0.013	1.110 → 1.165	+0.055	0.316 → 0.294	-0.022	0.172 → 0.138	-0.034

Ben Rice	DH	Ranger Suarez + bullpen	4.26	0.896 → 0.883	-0.013	1.164 → 1.220	+0.056	0.473 → 0.441	-0.032	0.252 → 0.204	-0.049

Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2B	Ranger Suarez + bullpen	3.74	0.814 → 0.802	-0.012	1.291 → 1.349	+0.058	0.343 → 0.320	-0.024	0.136 → 0.109	-0.027

Ryan McMahon	3B	Ranger Suarez + bullpen	3.30	0.735 → 0.724	-0.011	1.140 → 1.192	+0.051	0.253 → 0.235	-0.018	0.129 → 0.103	-0.025

Austin Wells	C	Ranger Suarez + bullpen	3.27	0.628 → 0.618	-0.010	0.963 → 1.008	+0.045	0.337 → 0.314	-0.023	0.126 → 0.101	-0.025

Trent Grisham	CF	Ranger Suarez + bullpen	3.89	0.796 → 0.784	-0.012	0.801 → 0.842	+0.042	0.406 → 0.378	-0.028	0.160 → 0.129	-0.032

NYY starter against the BOS lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Gerrit Cole	Starter	BOS	23.67	5.582 → 5.671	+0.089	6.115 → 5.933	-0.182	0.892 → 0.869	-0.023	1.756 → 1.753	-0.003

NYY bullpen: the full relief corps (6 arms)

Exposure. Starter 23.7 batters faced, bullpen 12.6 (34.7% of the game), from the club's real 36.2 staff batters faced per game over 23 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 37.1% across 3 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
John Schreiber	Reliever	recent relief	46	12	19.6%	2.46
David Bednar	Closer	published staff, recent relief	43	10	18.4%	2.31
Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	published staff, recent relief	42	10	18.0%	2.26
Brent Headrick	Setup Man	published staff, recent relief	42	12	18.0%	2.26
Ryan Yarbrough	Reliever	recent relief	30	5	13.2%	1.66
Will Warren	Reliever	recent relief	29	3	12.8%	1.61

NYY relievers against the BOS lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
John Schreiber	Reliever	BOS (20% of relief)	2.46	0.514 → 0.522	+0.008	0.436 → 0.422	-0.014	0.244 → 0.238	-0.006	0.073 → 0.073	0

David Bednar	Closer	BOS (18% of relief)	2.31	0.760 → 0.773	+0.012	1.155 → 1.122	-0.034	0.290 → 0.282	-0.007	0.051 → 0.051	0

Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	BOS (18% of relief)	2.26	1.025 → 1.041	+0.017	1.072 → 1.038	-0.034	0.465 → 0.454	-0.011	0.085 → 0.085	0

Brent Headrick	Setup Man	BOS (18% of relief)	2.26	0.880 → 0.894	+0.014	1.454 → 1.413	-0.041	0.403 → 0.393	-0.010	0.116 → 0.116	0

Ryan Yarbrough	Reliever	BOS (13% of relief)	1.66	0.345 → 0.350	+0.006	0.322 → 0.312	-0.010	0.141 → 0.138	-0.004	0.039 → 0.039	0

Will Warren	Reliever	BOS (13% of relief)	1.61	0.369 → 0.374	+0.006	0.373 → 0.362	-0.011	0.130 → 0.127	-0.003	0.050 → 0.050	0

20261001_CHC@SD — team layer withheld (no gate recorded); runs moved away 0 / home 0

Kevin Gausman (RHP, 24.5 BF)
H 0.2325 Below average · SO 0.2430 Average · BB 0.0672 Very good · HR 0.0331 Below average

Nick Pivetta (RHP, 16.9 BF)
H 0.2091 Average · SO 0.2713 Good · BB 0.0740 Good · HR 0.0265 Good

Warnings: home starter is projected 16.8749 batters faced, outside the real p10-p90 band of 17-27

CHC hitters vs Nick Pivetta and the bullpen

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to CHC hitter lines. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Alex Bregman	DH	Nick Pivetta + bullpen	4.06	0.857 → 0.811	-0.046	0.736 → 0.926	+0.190	0.399 → 0.376	-0.023	0.159 → 0.137	-0.022

Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	Nick Pivetta + bullpen	4.42	0.924 → 0.875	-0.049	1.281 → 1.562	+0.281	0.486 → 0.458	-0.028	0.220 → 0.190	-0.030

Michael Busch	1B	Nick Pivetta + bullpen	4.09	0.743 → 0.703	-0.041	0.987 → 1.212	+0.225	0.496 → 0.467	-0.028	0.103 → 0.089	-0.015

Matt Shaw	3B	Nick Pivetta + bullpen	3.64	0.739 → 0.699	-0.040	0.782 → 0.963	+0.181	0.314 → 0.295	-0.018	0.101 → 0.087	-0.014

Seiya Suzuki	RF	Nick Pivetta + bullpen	4.32	0.900 → 0.852	-0.048	1.141 → 1.397	+0.256	0.483 → 0.456	-0.028	0.174 → 0.149	-0.024

Ian Happ	LF	Nick Pivetta + bullpen	3.98	0.738 → 0.698	-0.041	1.314 → 1.584	+0.270	0.462 → 0.436	-0.026	0.127 → 0.109	-0.018

Nico Hoerner	2B	Nick Pivetta + bullpen	3.89	0.855 → 0.810	-0.045	0.404 → 0.517	+0.113	0.247 → 0.232	-0.015	0.063 → 0.054	-0.009

Carson Kelly	C	Nick Pivetta + bullpen	3.67	0.812 → 0.769	-0.044	0.780 → 0.975	+0.195	0.315 → 0.296	-0.018	0.107 → 0.092	-0.015

Dansby Swanson	SS	Nick Pivetta + bullpen	3.59	0.701 → 0.662	-0.039	0.979 → 1.203	+0.223	0.344 → 0.324	-0.020	0.124 → 0.107	-0.017

CHC starter against the SD lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Kevin Gausman	Starter	SD	24.54	5.974 → 6.051	+0.077	6.244 → 6.050	-0.194	1.566 → 1.603	+0.037	1.454 → 1.535	+0.080

CHC bullpen: the full relief corps (13 arms)

Exposure. Starter 24.5 batters faced, bullpen 12.9 (34.4% of the game), from the club's real 37.4 staff batters faced per game over 25 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 25.4% across 2 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Aaron Civale	Reliever	recent relief	60	8	14.6%	1.88
Ryan Rolison	Reliever	recent relief	47	12	11.6%	1.49
Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	published staff, recent relief	39	10	9.7%	1.25
Jacob Webb	Closer	published staff, recent relief	39	9	9.7%	1.25
Ryan Zeferjahn	Reliever	recent relief	37	10	9.3%	1.19
Caleb Thielbar	Reliever	recent relief	36	9	9.0%	1.16
Colin Rea	Reliever	recent relief	33	6	8.3%	1.07
Javier Assad	Reliever	recent relief	31	6	7.9%	1.01
Edward Cabrera	Reliever	recent relief	21	3	5.6%	0.72
Braxton Garrett	Reliever	recent relief	21	1	5.6%	0.72
Trent Thornton	Reliever	recent relief	19	5	5.1%	0.66
Tyler Ferguson	Reliever	recent relief	8	1	2.5%	0.33
Gavin Hollowell	Reliever	recent relief	2	1	1.2%	0.15

CHC relievers against the SD lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Aaron Civale	Reliever	SD (15% of relief)	1.88	0.448 → 0.454	+0.006	0.354 → 0.343	-0.012	0.144 → 0.148	+0.003	0.064 → 0.068	+0.004

Ryan Rolison	Reliever	SD (12% of relief)	1.49	0.318 → 0.322	+0.004	0.329 → 0.319	-0.011	0.150 → 0.154	+0.003	0.042 → 0.044	+0.002

Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	SD (10% of relief)	1.25	0.586 → 0.593	+0.008	0.913 → 0.884	-0.029	0.397 → 0.406	+0.009	0.113 → 0.119	+0.006

Jacob Webb	Closer	SD (10% of relief)	1.25	0.939 → 0.952	+0.012	0.967 → 0.937	-0.030	0.428 → 0.438	+0.010	0.171 → 0.180	+0.009

Ryan Zeferjahn	Reliever	SD (9% of relief)	1.19	0.225 → 0.228	+0.003	0.348 → 0.338	-0.010	0.137 → 0.140	+0.003	0.033 → 0.035	+0.002

Caleb Thielbar	Reliever	SD (9% of relief)	1.16	0.256 → 0.260	+0.003	0.310 → 0.300	-0.009	0.100 → 0.102	+0.002	0.044 → 0.046	+0.002

Colin Rea	Reliever	SD (8% of relief)	1.07	0.242 → 0.245	+0.003	0.191 → 0.184	-0.006	0.088 → 0.090	+0.002	0.036 → 0.038	+0.002

Javier Assad	Reliever	SD (8% of relief)	1.01	0.217 → 0.220	+0.003	0.175 → 0.170	-0.006	0.077 → 0.079	+0.002	0.035 → 0.037	+0.002

Edward Cabrera	Reliever	SD (6% of relief)	0.72	0.163 → 0.165	+0.002	0.148 → 0.143	-0.005	0.070 → 0.072	+0.002	0.027 → 0.028	+0.002

Braxton Garrett	Reliever	SD (6% of relief)	0.72	0.155 → 0.157	+0.002	0.158 → 0.153	-0.005	0.064 → 0.065	+0.002	0.022 → 0.023	+0.001

Trent Thornton	Reliever	SD (5% of relief)	0.66	0.141 → 0.143	+0.002	0.115 → 0.111	-0.004	0.056 → 0.058	+0.001	0.022 → 0.023	+0.001

Tyler Ferguson	Reliever	SD (3% of relief)	0.33	0.071 → 0.072	+0.001	0.073 → 0.070	-0.002	0.029 → 0.030	+0.001	0.010 → 0.011	+0.001

Gavin Hollowell	Reliever	SD (1% of relief)	0.15	0.032 → 0.033	0	0.033 → 0.032	-0.001	0.013 → 0.014	0	0.004 → 0.005	0

SD hitters vs Kevin Gausman and the bullpen

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to SD hitter lines. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Dustin Harris	LF	Kevin Gausman + bullpen	4.14	0.963 → 1.010	+0.046	0.708 → 0.753	+0.045	0.302 → 0.254	-0.048	0.080 → 0.087	+0.006

Fernando Tatis Jr.	RF	Kevin Gausman + bullpen	4.31	1.092 → 1.143	+0.051	0.892 → 0.952	+0.060	0.354 → 0.298	-0.056	0.168 → 0.181	+0.013

Ty France	1B	Kevin Gausman + bullpen	4.08	1.025 → 1.072	+0.048	0.967 → 1.029	+0.062	0.290 → 0.243	-0.046	0.139 → 0.150	+0.011

Manny Machado	3B	Kevin Gausman + bullpen	4.24	0.918 → 0.963	+0.045	0.933 → 0.994	+0.060	0.418 → 0.353	-0.065	0.183 → 0.197	+0.014

Ethan Salas	C	Kevin Gausman + bullpen	3.43	0.776 → 0.813	+0.037	0.821 → 0.874	+0.053	0.245 → 0.207	-0.039	0.113 → 0.122	+0.009

Xander Bogaerts	SS	Kevin Gausman + bullpen	3.86	0.829 → 0.869	+0.040	0.773 → 0.826	+0.052	0.414 → 0.350	-0.064	0.087 → 0.094	+0.007

Jackson Merrill	CF	Kevin Gausman + bullpen	4.09	0.929 → 0.973	+0.044	1.106 → 1.175	+0.069	0.270 → 0.226	-0.043	0.145 → 0.157	+0.011

Austin Hays	DH	Kevin Gausman + bullpen	3.41	0.862 → 0.903	+0.041	0.997 → 1.061	+0.064	0.180 → 0.151	-0.029	0.118 → 0.127	+0.009

Jake Cronenworth	2B	Kevin Gausman + bullpen	3.72	0.758 → 0.795	+0.037	0.926 → 0.985	+0.059	0.323 → 0.272	-0.051	0.072 → 0.078	+0.006

SD starter against the CHC lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Nick Pivetta	Starter	CHC	16.87	3.273 → 3.304	+0.031	4.497 → 4.278	-0.219	0.644 → 0.758	+0.114	0.345 → 0.382	+0.037

SD bullpen: the full relief corps (8 arms)

Exposure. Starter 16.9 batters faced, bullpen 20.8 (55.2% of the game), from the club's real 37.7 staff batters faced per game over 26 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 51.0% across 4 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	published staff, recent relief	57	14	17.9%	3.73
Mason Miller	Closer	published staff, recent relief	57	12	17.9%	3.73
Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	published staff, recent relief	56	12	17.6%	3.67
David Morgan	Reliever	recent relief	47	12	14.9%	3.11
Yuki Matsui	Reliever	recent relief	46	13	14.6%	3.05
Randy Vásquez	Reliever	recent relief	31	4	10.2%	2.11
Jason Adam	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	published staff, recent relief	11	3	4.2%	0.87
Joe Musgrove	Reliever	recent relief	6	1	2.7%	0.56

SD relievers against the CHC lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	CHC (18% of relief)	3.73	0.722 → 0.729	+0.007	1.237 → 1.178	-0.059	0.424 → 0.498	+0.074	0.039 → 0.043	+0.004

Mason Miller	Closer	CHC (18% of relief)	3.73	0.633 → 0.639	+0.006	1.714 → 1.647	-0.068	0.392 → 0.459	+0.068	0.078 → 0.086	+0.008

Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	CHC (18% of relief)	3.67	0.985 → 0.994	+0.009	1.308 → 1.243	-0.065	0.343 → 0.403	+0.060	0.110 → 0.121	+0.012

David Morgan	Reliever	CHC (15% of relief)	3.11	0.687 → 0.693	+0.006	0.728 → 0.691	-0.037	0.350 → 0.409	+0.059	0.080 → 0.088	+0.009

Yuki Matsui	Reliever	CHC (15% of relief)	3.05	0.554 → 0.559	+0.005	0.768 → 0.729	-0.038	0.365 → 0.425	+0.061	0.089 → 0.098	+0.009

Randy Vásquez	Reliever	CHC (10% of relief)	2.11	0.491 → 0.495	+0.004	0.332 → 0.313	-0.019	0.145 → 0.171	+0.026	0.060 → 0.067	+0.006

Jason Adam	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	CHC (4% of relief)	0.87	0.841 → 0.849	+0.008	0.553 → 0.523	-0.030	0.302 → 0.355	+0.053	0.119 → 0.131	+0.013

Joe Musgrove	Reliever	CHC (3% of relief)	0.56	0.121 → 0.123	+0.001	0.124 → 0.117	-0.006	0.050 → 0.058	+0.009	0.017 → 0.019	+0.002

20261001_CHW@HOU — team layer withheld (no gate recorded); runs moved away 0 / home 0

Sean Burke (RHP, 23.2 BF)
H 0.2062 Good · SO 0.2528 Good · BB 0.0893 Average · HR 0.0286 Average

Hunter Brown (RHP, 22.4 BF)
H 0.1943 Very good · SO 0.2668 Good · BB 0.1134 Poor · HR 0.0274 Average

Warnings: away published staff projects 47.329 batters faced, outside the real p10-p90 band of 30-45; the exposure here uses the club's real 35.78 per game instead

CHW hitters vs Hunter Brown and the bullpen

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to CHW hitter lines. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Sam Antonacci	LF	Hunter Brown + bullpen	4.28	0.848 → 0.784	-0.064	0.743 → 0.859	+0.116	0.448 → 0.543	+0.095	0.090 → 0.085	-0.005

Munetaka Murakami	1B	Hunter Brown + bullpen	4.56	0.705 → 0.650	-0.055	1.750 → 1.952	+0.202	0.829 → 0.987	+0.159	0.237 → 0.225	-0.012

Kyle Teel	C	Hunter Brown + bullpen	4.12	0.736 → 0.679	-0.056	1.489 → 1.700	+0.210	0.538 → 0.650	+0.113	0.143 → 0.136	-0.008

Miguel Vargas	3B	Hunter Brown + bullpen	4.46	0.803 → 0.742	-0.061	0.909 → 1.045	+0.136	0.690 → 0.826	+0.136	0.187 → 0.177	-0.010

Braden Montgomery	RF	Hunter Brown + bullpen	3.75	0.680 → 0.628	-0.052	0.878 → 1.006	+0.128	0.473 → 0.570	+0.097	0.091 → 0.086	-0.005

Andrew Benintendi	DH	Hunter Brown + bullpen	3.59	0.663 → 0.613	-0.051	1.018 → 1.159	+0.141	0.398 → 0.482	+0.084	0.134 → 0.127	-0.007

Tristan Peters	CF	Hunter Brown + bullpen	3.80	0.762 → 0.705	-0.057	0.854 → 0.982	+0.128	0.381 → 0.461	+0.081	0.114 → 0.108	-0.006

Chase Meidroth	2B	Hunter Brown + bullpen	3.86	0.782 → 0.723	-0.059	1.027 → 1.173	+0.146	0.432 → 0.522	+0.090	0.107 → 0.102	-0.006

Colson Montgomery	SS	Hunter Brown + bullpen	3.67	0.600 → 0.553	-0.047	1.482 → 1.652	+0.171	0.403 → 0.487	+0.085	0.175 → 0.166	-0.009

CHW starter against the HOU lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Sean Burke	Starter	HOU	23.18	4.413 → 4.553	+0.139	5.890 → 5.470	-0.420	3.682 → 3.566	-0.116	0.552 → 0.669	+0.117

CHW bullpen: the full relief corps (9 arms)

Exposure. Starter 23.2 batters faced, bullpen 12.6 (35.2% of the game), from the club's real 35.8 staff batters faced per game over 2 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 51.0% across 4 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Hagen Smith	Reliever	recent relief	56	9	30.3%	3.81
Erick Fedde	Reliever	recent relief	33	2	18.5%	2.32
Sean Newcomb	Setup Man	published staff, recent relief	26	3	14.9%	1.87
Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	published staff, recent relief	25	7	14.4%	1.81
Davis Martin	Reliever	recent relief	20	1	11.8%	1.48
David Sandlin	Reliever	recent relief	5	1	4.1%	0.52
Anthony Kay	Reliever	recent relief	3	1	3.1%	0.39
Grant Taylor	Closer	published staff	0	0	1.5%	0.19
Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	published staff	0	0	1.5%	0.19

CHW relievers against the HOU lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Hagen Smith	Reliever	HOU (30% of relief)	3.81	0.826 → 0.852	+0.026	0.843 → 0.780	-0.062	0.339 → 0.328	-0.011	0.116 → 0.140	+0.024

Erick Fedde	Reliever	HOU (18% of relief)	2.32	0.524 → 0.540	+0.016	0.396 → 0.364	-0.031	0.201 → 0.195	-0.006	0.081 → 0.098	+0.017

Sean Newcomb	Setup Man	HOU (15% of relief)	1.87	1.853 → 1.912	+0.059	1.700 → 1.575	-0.125	0.665 → 0.644	-0.021	0.036 → 0.043	+0.008

Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	HOU (14% of relief)	1.81	1.004 → 1.035	+0.031	0.900 → 0.833	-0.068	0.270 → 0.262	-0.009	0.079 → 0.096	+0.017

Davis Martin	Reliever	HOU (12% of relief)	1.48	0.342 → 0.352	+0.011	0.298 → 0.275	-0.023	0.115 → 0.111	-0.004	0.038 → 0.047	+0.008

David Sandlin	Reliever	HOU (4% of relief)	0.52	0.112 → 0.115	+0.004	0.121 → 0.112	-0.009	0.043 → 0.042	-0.001	0.017 → 0.021	+0.004

Anthony Kay	Reliever	HOU (3% of relief)	0.39	0.087 → 0.090	+0.003	0.071 → 0.066	-0.005	0.032 → 0.031	-0.001	0.012 → 0.014	+0.003

Grant Taylor	Closer	HOU (2% of relief)	0.19	1.099 → 1.134	+0.035	2.363 → 2.204	-0.159	0.548 → 0.530	-0.017	0.097 → 0.117	+0.021

Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	HOU (2% of relief)	0.19	0.895 → 0.923	+0.028	1.412 → 1.314	-0.098	0.707 → 0.686	-0.021	0.106 → 0.129	+0.022

HOU hitters vs Sean Burke and the bullpen

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to HOU hitter lines. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Yordan Alvarez	LF	Sean Burke + bullpen	4.47	0.929 → 0.905	-0.025	0.849 → 0.917	+0.068	0.686 → 0.679	-0.008	0.250 → 0.235	-0.014

Isaac Paredes	DH	Sean Burke + bullpen	4.14	0.821 → 0.799	-0.022	0.690 → 0.748	+0.058	0.445 → 0.440	-0.005	0.164 → 0.154	-0.010

Jose Altuve	2B	Sean Burke + bullpen	4.25	0.884 → 0.860	-0.024	1.033 → 1.113	+0.080	0.334 → 0.330	-0.004	0.139 → 0.130	-0.008

Lucas Spence	CF	Sean Burke + bullpen	3.86	0.760 → 0.739	-0.021	1.329 → 1.429	+0.100	0.398 → 0.393	-0.005	0.159 → 0.149	-0.009

Yainer Diaz	C	Sean Burke + bullpen	4.02	0.921 → 0.896	-0.024	0.849 → 0.917	+0.069	0.207 → 0.204	-0.003	0.167 → 0.157	-0.010

Nick Allen	3B	Sean Burke + bullpen	3.27	0.694 → 0.675	-0.019	0.822 → 0.884	+0.062	0.255 → 0.252	-0.003	0.097 → 0.091	-0.006

Jeremy Peña	SS	Sean Burke + bullpen	4.43	0.995 → 0.968	-0.026	1.297 → 1.392	+0.095	0.273 → 0.269	-0.003	0.206 → 0.194	-0.012

Christian Walker	1B	Sean Burke + bullpen	3.84	0.745 → 0.725	-0.021	1.058 → 1.135	+0.078	0.339 → 0.335	-0.004	0.179 → 0.168	-0.010

Cam Smith	RF	Sean Burke + bullpen	3.66	0.694 → 0.674	-0.019	1.143 → 1.224	+0.081	0.300 → 0.297	-0.004	0.145 → 0.136	-0.009

HOU starter against the CHW lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Hunter Brown	Starter	CHW	22.39	4.210 → 4.160	-0.051	6.706 → 6.991	+0.285	2.346 → 2.666	+0.320	0.424 → 0.466	+0.042

HOU bullpen: the full relief corps (13 arms)

Exposure. Starter 22.4 batters faced, bullpen 14.7 (39.7% of the game), from the club's real 37.1 staff batters faced per game over 25 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 34.9% across 3 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
AJ Blubaugh	Reliever	recent relief	55	12	11.4%	1.68
Ethan Pecko	Reliever	recent relief	49	3	10.3%	1.51
Bennett Sousa	Reliever	recent relief	47	12	9.9%	1.45
Bryan King	Reliever	recent relief	46	10	9.7%	1.42
Miguel Ullola	Reliever	recent relief	42	6	8.9%	1.31
Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	published staff, recent relief	42	12	8.9%	1.31
Tatsuya Imai	Reliever	recent relief	37	5	7.9%	1.16
Josh Hader	Closer	published staff, recent relief	37	9	7.9%	1.16
Enyel De Los Santos	Reliever	recent relief	32	6	6.9%	1.02
Ronel Blanco	Reliever	recent relief	25	2	5.5%	0.81
Logan VanWey	Setup Man	published staff, recent relief	25	6	5.5%	0.81
Josh Hendrickson	Reliever	recent relief	17	3	3.9%	0.58
Kai-Wei Teng	Reliever	recent relief	14	2	3.4%	0.49

HOU relievers against the CHW lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
AJ Blubaugh	Reliever	CHW (11% of relief)	1.68	0.339 → 0.335	-0.004	0.391 → 0.409	+0.018	0.169 → 0.192	+0.023	0.053 → 0.058	+0.005

Ethan Pecko	Reliever	CHW (10% of relief)	1.51	0.309 → 0.305	-0.004	0.280 → 0.293	+0.013	0.142 → 0.162	+0.020	0.048 → 0.053	+0.005

Bennett Sousa	Reliever	CHW (10% of relief)	1.45	0.333 → 0.329	-0.004	0.326 → 0.341	+0.015	0.156 → 0.177	+0.021	0.046 → 0.050	+0.005

Bryan King	Reliever	CHW (10% of relief)	1.42	0.330 → 0.326	-0.004	0.273 → 0.286	+0.013	0.121 → 0.138	+0.017	0.044 → 0.049	+0.004

Miguel Ullola	Reliever	CHW (9% of relief)	1.31	0.283 → 0.280	-0.003	0.289 → 0.302	+0.013	0.116 → 0.133	+0.016	0.040 → 0.044	+0.004

Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	CHW (9% of relief)	1.31	0.741 → 0.732	-0.009	1.142 → 1.190	+0.048	0.544 → 0.617	+0.073	0.197 → 0.216	+0.020

Tatsuya Imai	Reliever	CHW (8% of relief)	1.16	0.224 → 0.221	-0.003	0.319 → 0.332	+0.013	0.152 → 0.173	+0.020	0.033 → 0.037	+0.003

Josh Hader	Closer	CHW (8% of relief)	1.16	0.479 → 0.473	-0.006	1.019 → 1.060	+0.042	0.410 → 0.468	+0.058	0.021 → 0.023	+0.002

Enyel De Los Santos	Reliever	CHW (7% of relief)	1.02	0.227 → 0.224	-0.003	0.223 → 0.234	+0.010	0.074 → 0.085	+0.011	0.034 → 0.037	+0.003

Ronel Blanco	Reliever	CHW (6% of relief)	0.81	0.174 → 0.172	-0.002	0.170 → 0.178	+0.008	0.081 → 0.092	+0.011	0.031 → 0.034	+0.003

Logan VanWey	Setup Man	CHW (6% of relief)	0.81	0.826 → 0.817	-0.010	0.679 → 0.710	+0.031	0.100 → 0.114	+0.014	0.074 → 0.081	+0.007

Josh Hendrickson	Reliever	CHW (4% of relief)	0.58	0.126 → 0.124	-0.002	0.128 → 0.134	+0.006	0.052 → 0.059	+0.007	0.018 → 0.019	+0.002

Kai-Wei Teng	Reliever	CHW (3% of relief)	0.49	0.105 → 0.104	-0.001	0.109 → 0.114	+0.005	0.048 → 0.054	+0.007	0.015 → 0.017	+0.002

20261001_PHI@ATL — team layer withheld (no gate recorded); runs moved away 0 / home 0

Aaron Nola (RHP, 22.3 BF)
H 0.2319 Below average · SO 0.2363 Average · BB 0.0810 Average · HR 0.0425 Poor

Ray Kerr (LHP, 18.6 BF)
H 0.2169 averagen<floor · SO 0.2212 averagen<floor · BB 0.0889 averagen<floor · HR 0.0304 averagen<floor

PHI hitters vs Ray Kerr and the bullpen

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to PHI hitter lines. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Alec Bohm	1B	Ray Kerr + bullpen	3.94	0.880 → 0.868	-0.012	0.533 → 0.558	+0.025	0.275 → 0.265	-0.010	0.116 → 0.112	-0.004

Bryce Harper	RF	Ray Kerr + bullpen	4.38	0.945 → 0.932	-0.013	0.905 → 0.944	+0.038	0.464 → 0.448	-0.016	0.180 → 0.174	-0.007

Bryan De La Cruz	LF	Ray Kerr + bullpen	3.48	0.771 → 0.760	-0.011	0.690 → 0.719	+0.029	0.254 → 0.244	-0.009	0.108 → 0.104	-0.004

Edmundo Sosa	3B	Ray Kerr + bullpen	3.55	0.821 → 0.810	-0.011	0.751 → 0.783	+0.032	0.145 → 0.140	-0.006	0.134 → 0.129	-0.005

Kyle Schwarber	DH	Ray Kerr + bullpen	4.22	0.843 → 0.832	-0.012	1.256 → 1.302	+0.046	0.430 → 0.415	-0.015	0.242 → 0.233	-0.009

Trea Turner	SS	Ray Kerr + bullpen	4.27	0.957 → 0.944	-0.013	0.842 → 0.878	+0.036	0.268 → 0.258	-0.010	0.134 → 0.129	-0.005

Bryson Stott	2B	Ray Kerr + bullpen	3.86	0.866 → 0.854	-0.012	0.648 → 0.677	+0.029	0.293 → 0.282	-0.011	0.085 → 0.082	-0.003

J.T. Realmuto	C	Ray Kerr + bullpen	3.56	0.724 → 0.714	-0.010	0.720 → 0.751	+0.031	0.253 → 0.243	-0.009	0.102 → 0.098	-0.004

Justin Crawford	CF	Ray Kerr + bullpen	3.23	0.761 → 0.751	-0.010	0.597 → 0.624	+0.026	0.164 → 0.158	-0.006	0.054 → 0.052	-0.002

PHI starter against the ATL lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Aaron Nola	Starter	ATL	22.32	4.711 → 4.890	+0.179	4.242 → 3.963	-0.279	1.695 → 1.558	-0.137	1.052 → 1.211	+0.159

PHI bullpen: the full relief corps (13 arms)

Exposure. Starter 22.3 batters faced, bullpen 15.1 (40.4% of the game), from the club's real 37.5 staff batters faced per game over 26 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 35.6% across 3 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Alex McFarlane	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	published staff, recent relief	45	11	13.0%	1.97
José Alvarado	Reliever	recent relief	42	11	12.2%	1.85
Jhoan Duran	Closer	published staff, recent relief	42	10	12.2%	1.85
Chase Shugart	Reliever	recent relief	35	9	10.3%	1.56
Orion Kerkering	Reliever	recent relief	30	4	9.0%	1.36
Tanner Banks	Reliever	recent relief	30	4	9.0%	1.36
Jonathan Bowlan	Setup Man	published staff, recent relief	29	7	8.7%	1.32
Brooks Raley	Reliever	recent relief	24	6	7.3%	1.11
Tim Mayza	Reliever	recent relief	20	6	6.2%	0.95
Andrew Painter	Reliever	recent relief	12	1	4.1%	0.62
Max Lazar	Reliever	recent relief	10	2	3.5%	0.53
Grant Holman	Reliever	recent relief	7	1	2.7%	0.41
Jesús Luzardo	Reliever	recent relief	3	1	1.6%	0.25

PHI relievers against the ATL lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Alex McFarlane	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	ATL (13% of relief)	1.97	0.891 → 0.926	+0.035	1.129 → 1.053	-0.075	0.365 → 0.336	-0.029	0.122 → 0.141	+0.019

José Alvarado	Reliever	ATL (12% of relief)	1.85	0.418 → 0.434	+0.016	0.461 → 0.432	-0.030	0.192 → 0.176	-0.015	0.048 → 0.056	+0.007

Jhoan Duran	Closer	ATL (12% of relief)	1.85	0.770 → 0.800	+0.030	1.297 → 1.221	-0.076	0.168 → 0.154	-0.014	0.079 → 0.091	+0.012

Chase Shugart	Reliever	ATL (10% of relief)	1.56	0.323 → 0.335	+0.013	0.396 → 0.370	-0.025	0.141 → 0.130	-0.011	0.055 → 0.064	+0.008

Orion Kerkering	Reliever	ATL (9% of relief)	1.36	0.275 → 0.286	+0.011	0.315 → 0.294	-0.021	0.153 → 0.141	-0.012	0.035 → 0.041	+0.005

Tanner Banks	Reliever	ATL (9% of relief)	1.36	0.335 → 0.347	+0.013	0.296 → 0.276	-0.020	0.118 → 0.109	-0.009	0.047 → 0.054	+0.007

Jonathan Bowlan	Setup Man	ATL (9% of relief)	1.32	0.904 → 0.939	+0.036	1.283 → 1.204	-0.078	0.266 → 0.244	-0.022	0.207 → 0.238	+0.032

Brooks Raley	Reliever	ATL (7% of relief)	1.11	0.239 → 0.248	+0.009	0.250 → 0.233	-0.017	0.100 → 0.092	-0.008	0.033 → 0.038	+0.005

Tim Mayza	Reliever	ATL (6% of relief)	0.95	0.204 → 0.212	+0.008	0.221 → 0.206	-0.015	0.070 → 0.064	-0.006	0.028 → 0.032	+0.004

Andrew Painter	Reliever	ATL (4% of relief)	0.62	0.143 → 0.148	+0.005	0.130 → 0.121	-0.009	0.053 → 0.049	-0.004	0.021 → 0.025	+0.003

Max Lazar	Reliever	ATL (4% of relief)	0.53	0.116 → 0.120	+0.004	0.118 → 0.110	-0.008	0.048 → 0.044	-0.004	0.016 → 0.019	+0.003

Grant Holman	Reliever	ATL (3% of relief)	0.41	0.089 → 0.093	+0.004	0.091 → 0.085	-0.006	0.037 → 0.034	-0.003	0.013 → 0.014	+0.002

Jesús Luzardo	Reliever	ATL (2% of relief)	0.25	0.049 → 0.051	+0.002	0.073 → 0.068	-0.004	0.018 → 0.017	-0.002	0.006 → 0.007	+0.001

ATL hitters vs Aaron Nola and the bullpen

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to ATL hitter lines. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Ronald Acuña Jr.	RF	Aaron Nola + bullpen	4.23	1.052 → 1.094	+0.043	0.927 → 1.012	+0.085	0.393 → 0.369	-0.024	0.181 → 0.222	+0.040

Mauricio Dubón	SS	Aaron Nola + bullpen	3.94	1.040 → 1.082	+0.041	0.507 → 0.560	+0.053	0.218 → 0.204	-0.014	0.091 → 0.112	+0.021

Drake Baldwin	C	Aaron Nola + bullpen	4.45	1.195 → 1.243	+0.048	0.931 → 1.017	+0.086	0.368 → 0.345	-0.023	0.170 → 0.207	+0.038

Michael Harris II	CF	Aaron Nola + bullpen	4.03	1.122 → 1.166	+0.044	0.855 → 0.936	+0.081	0.167 → 0.156	-0.011	0.194 → 0.237	+0.043

Matt Olson	1B	Aaron Nola + bullpen	4.11	0.974 → 1.014	+0.040	0.990 → 1.078	+0.088	0.343 → 0.321	-0.021	0.249 → 0.304	+0.054

Mike Yastrzemski	LF	Aaron Nola + bullpen	3.83	0.917 → 0.955	+0.038	0.929 → 1.013	+0.084	0.328 → 0.308	-0.020	0.131 → 0.160	+0.029

Ozzie Albies	2B	Aaron Nola + bullpen	3.66	0.885 → 0.921	+0.036	0.607 → 0.668	+0.060	0.251 → 0.235	-0.016	0.122 → 0.150	+0.028

Austin Riley	3B	Aaron Nola + bullpen	3.63	0.894 → 0.931	+0.037	1.159 → 1.252	+0.093	0.253 → 0.237	-0.016	0.142 → 0.174	+0.032

Dominic Smith	DH	Aaron Nola + bullpen	3.14	0.791 → 0.823	+0.032	0.661 → 0.726	+0.065	0.201 → 0.188	-0.013	0.104 → 0.127	+0.023

ATL starter against the PHI lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Ray Kerr	Starter	PHI	18.63	3.110 → 3.108	-0.002	0.000 → 0.000	0	1.362 → 1.420	+0.058	0.000 → 0.000	0

ATL bullpen: the full relief corps (9 arms)

Exposure. Starter 18.6 batters faced, bullpen 18.5 (49.8% of the game), from the club's real 37.1 staff batters faced per game over 26 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 42.4% across 3 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Didier Fuentes	Setup Man	published staff, recent relief	60	11	19.0%	3.51
Brent Suter	Reliever	recent relief	44	6	14.2%	2.62
AJ Smith-Shawver	Reliever	recent relief	41	4	13.2%	2.45
Raisel Iglesias	Closer	published staff, recent relief	39	11	12.7%	2.34
Victor Mederos	Reliever	recent relief	36	9	11.8%	2.17
Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	published staff, recent relief	33	8	10.8%	2.00
Dylan Dodd	Reliever	recent relief	26	6	8.7%	1.61
Grant Holmes	Reliever	recent relief	17	1	6.0%	1.11
Robert Suarez	Reliever	recent relief	9	2	3.6%	0.67

ATL relievers against the PHI lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Didier Fuentes	Setup Man	PHI (19% of relief)	3.51	1.406 → 1.405	-0.001	1.447 → 1.383	-0.064	0.281 → 0.293	+0.012	0.217 → 0.220	+0.003

Brent Suter	Reliever	PHI (14% of relief)	2.62	0.584 → 0.584	0	0.548 → 0.521	-0.026	0.196 → 0.204	+0.009	0.072 → 0.073	+0.001

AJ Smith-Shawver	Reliever	PHI (13% of relief)	2.45	0.535 → 0.535	0	0.488 → 0.465	-0.024	0.244 → 0.254	+0.010	0.085 → 0.086	+0.001

Raisel Iglesias	Closer	PHI (13% of relief)	2.34	0.762 → 0.762	-0.001	0.927 → 0.885	-0.042	0.188 → 0.196	+0.008	0.084 → 0.086	+0.001

Victor Mederos	Reliever	PHI (12% of relief)	2.17	0.446 → 0.446	0	0.492 → 0.469	-0.023	0.199 → 0.207	+0.009	0.053 → 0.054	+0.001

Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	PHI (11% of relief)	2.00	0.763 → 0.763	-0.001	1.029 → 0.984	-0.045	0.201 → 0.209	+0.009	0.162 → 0.164	+0.002

Dylan Dodd	Reliever	PHI (9% of relief)	1.61	0.312 → 0.311	0	0.423 → 0.404	-0.019	0.132 → 0.137	+0.006	0.047 → 0.048	+0.001

Grant Holmes	Reliever	PHI (6% of relief)	1.11	0.240 → 0.240	0	0.207 → 0.197	-0.010	0.102 → 0.106	+0.004	0.038 → 0.038	+0.001

Robert Suarez	Reliever	PHI (4% of relief)	0.67	0.138 → 0.138	0	0.139 → 0.132	-0.007	0.046 → 0.048	+0.002	0.017 → 0.017	0

Measured from published artifacts and stored KPI values. Nothing recomputed. Per-player adjustments are a measurement of the catalog, not the published line.