MLB Prediction System

KPI Player Effects

How each KPI adds or removes a hit, a strikeout, a walk or a home run, per player, against the arm he actually faces

Slate 20260930Games 4Schema kpi_player_effects_v2Built 2026-10-06 13:58Z

What this document measures

Every counting stat below has a KPI on both sides of the matchup, measured on the same denominator: a plate appearance. That is what lets the hitter's reading and the starter's reading be combined instead of listed side by side. The combination is the standard Log5 odds ratio, which is exactly additive in log odds, so the hitter's push and the pitcher's push separate cleanly and the remainder is reported rather than absorbed.

Hits use a derived KPI. Hit rate is not in config/kpi_registry.json: registering it would move the registry hash recorded in the model manifest and fail the live layer closed until a retrain. It is computed with the same strict as-of cutoff and the same shrinkage, stored in its own namespace, and never read by the runtime.

These per-player numbers are measured, not published. The live KPI layer moves team runs and the win probability. The hitter lines in the artifact were then scaled by one club-wide ratio, identical for the leadoff hitter and the ninth bat. The per-hitter columns here are what that single ratio discards.

The whole staff, not only the starter. A hitter takes roughly four in ten of his plate appearances against relievers. Each club's bullpen here is the pregame bullpen: the seven busiest healthy relievers of the last 30 days, the same arms the KPI forecast weighted and the simulation pitched, each sharing the relief work by the batters faced the forecast gave him. The bullpen's workload tonight is the club's real mean staff batters faced minus the starter's projection. The published staff alone holds only the relievers one simulation draw used, so it is shown beside the bullpen for comparison, not used.

Reading a delta. Own skill is measured against the league. The opponent effect is measured against the hitter's own rate, which is the only one that may adjust a published line, because the published line already carries his own skill. Adding both to a published line would count the hitter twice.

Coverage. 72 hitter-versus-starter pairings; 60 have both sides above their sample floor on hits and 64 carry a non-zero hit adjustment. A side below its floor falls back to the league rate and is marked n<floor, which is a stated absence of evidence rather than a measured zero. All four outcome metrics have value documents. Handedness source: model bundle pitcher_hands.json.

Largest per-player movements on the slate

Hitter	Club	Metric	Starter faced (+ bullpen)	Published	KPI adjusted, whole staff	Δ	Hitter band	Pitcher band	Game
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CHC	Strikeouts	Nick Pivetta	1.281	1.559	+0.278	Below average	Good	20260930_CHC@SD
Ian Happ	CHC	Strikeouts	Nick Pivetta	1.314	1.582	+0.268	Below average	Good	20260930_CHC@SD
Seiya Suzuki	CHC	Strikeouts	Nick Pivetta	1.141	1.394	+0.253	Average	Good	20260930_CHC@SD
Michael Busch	CHC	Strikeouts	Nick Pivetta	0.987	1.210	+0.223	Average	Good	20260930_CHC@SD
Dansby Swanson	CHC	Strikeouts	Nick Pivetta	0.979	1.201	+0.221	Average	Good	20260930_CHC@SD
Kyle Teel	CHW	Strikeouts	Hunter Brown	1.489	1.700	+0.211	averagen<floor	Good	20260930_CHW@HOU
Munetaka Murakami	CHW	Strikeouts	Hunter Brown	1.750	1.952	+0.203	Poor	Good	20260930_CHW@HOU
Sean Murphy	ATL	Strikeouts	Cristopher Sánchez	1.103	1.304	+0.201	averagen<floor	Good	20260930_PHI@ATL
Matt Olson	ATL	Strikeouts	Cristopher Sánchez	1.107	1.302	+0.195	Average	Good	20260930_PHI@ATL
Carson Kelly	CHC	Strikeouts	Nick Pivetta	0.780	0.973	+0.193	Good	Good	20260930_CHC@SD
Michael Harris II	ATL	Strikeouts	Cristopher Sánchez	1.015	1.208	+0.193	Average	Good	20260930_PHI@ATL
Drake Baldwin	ATL	Strikeouts	Cristopher Sánchez	1.040	1.232	+0.192	Average	Good	20260930_PHI@ATL
Austin Riley	ATL	Strikeouts	Cristopher Sánchez	1.207	1.398	+0.191	Poor	Good	20260930_PHI@ATL
Alex Bregman	CHC	Strikeouts	Nick Pivetta	0.736	0.924	+0.188	Good	Good	20260930_CHC@SD
Ronald Acuña Jr.	ATL	Strikeouts	Cristopher Sánchez	1.009	1.193	+0.184	Average	Good	20260930_PHI@ATL
Matt Shaw	CHC	Strikeouts	Nick Pivetta	0.782	0.961	+0.179	averagen<floor	Good	20260930_CHC@SD
Colson Montgomery	CHW	Strikeouts	Hunter Brown	1.482	1.652	+0.171	Poor	Good	20260930_CHW@HOU
Munetaka Murakami	CHW	Walks	Hunter Brown	0.829	0.985	+0.157	Very good	Poor	20260930_CHW@HOU
Ha-Seong Kim	ATL	Strikeouts	Cristopher Sánchez	0.858	1.014	+0.156	averagen<floor	Good	20260930_PHI@ATL
Chase Meidroth	CHW	Strikeouts	Hunter Brown	1.027	1.173	+0.146	Average	Good	20260930_CHW@HOU

Per game

Club Player

20260930_BOS@NYY — team layer withheld (no gate recorded); runs moved away 0 / home 0

Sonny Gray (RHP, 24.8 BF)
H 0.2167 Average · SO 0.2185 Average · BB 0.0714 Good · HR 0.0262 Good

Max Fried (LHP, 21.4 BF)
H 0.1991 Good · SO 0.2303 Average · BB 0.0799 Average · HR 0.0203 Very good

Warnings: away published staff projects 28.7923 batters faced, outside the real p10-p90 band of 30-45; the exposure here uses the club's real 37.25 per game instead

BOS hitters vs Max Fried and the bullpen

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to BOS hitter lines. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Wilyer Abreu	RF	Max Fried + bullpen	4.05	0.822 → 0.770	-0.052	0.997 → 1.031	+0.035	0.385 → 0.361	-0.024	0.150 → 0.113	-0.037

Jahmai Jones	DH	Max Fried + bullpen	3.65	0.722 → 0.676	-0.046	1.247 → 1.289	+0.042	0.321 → 0.300	-0.021	0.141 → 0.106	-0.035

Adley Rutschman	C	Max Fried + bullpen	4.24	0.799 → 0.748	-0.051	0.809 → 0.839	+0.029	0.408 → 0.382	-0.026	0.147 → 0.111	-0.037

Willson Contreras	1B	Max Fried + bullpen	4.08	0.803 → 0.752	-0.051	1.129 → 1.166	+0.037	0.461 → 0.432	-0.029	0.195 → 0.147	-0.048

Ceddanne Rafaela	CF	Max Fried + bullpen	3.93	0.873 → 0.819	-0.054	0.997 → 1.032	+0.035	0.211 → 0.197	-0.014	0.124 → 0.093	-0.031

Caleb Durbin	3B	Max Fried + bullpen	3.66	0.703 → 0.658	-0.045	0.627 → 0.651	+0.024	0.342 → 0.320	-0.022	0.106 → 0.080	-0.026

Nick Sogard	2B	Max Fried + bullpen	4.00	0.853 → 0.798	-0.054	0.880 → 0.911	+0.030	0.448 → 0.419	-0.028	0.130 → 0.098	-0.033

Trevor Story	SS	Max Fried + bullpen	3.66	0.767 → 0.718	-0.049	1.329 → 1.369	+0.040	0.226 → 0.211	-0.015	0.126 → 0.095	-0.032

Nate Eaton	LF	Max Fried + bullpen	3.34	0.662 → 0.620	-0.042	0.865 → 0.894	+0.029	0.363 → 0.340	-0.023	0.104 → 0.078	-0.026

BOS starter against the NYY lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Sonny Gray	Starter	NYY	24.78	4.865 → 4.850	-0.015	5.216 → 5.641	+0.425	1.885 → 2.067	+0.183	0.337 → 0.408	+0.071

BOS bullpen: the full relief corps (13 arms)

Exposure. Starter 24.8 batters faced, bullpen 12.5 (33.5% of the game), from the club's real 37.2 staff batters faced per game over 25 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 13.9% across 1 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Wyatt Olds	Reliever	recent relief	47	9	11.9%	1.48
Erik Miller	Reliever	recent relief	46	10	11.7%	1.46
Greg Weissert	Reliever	recent relief	41	9	10.5%	1.31
Alec Gamboa	Reliever	recent relief	40	8	10.2%	1.28
Jovani Morán	Reliever	recent relief	29	7	7.6%	0.95
Raymond Burgos	Reliever	recent relief	28	4	7.4%	0.92
Aroldis Chapman	Closer	published staff, recent relief	27	7	7.1%	0.89
Garrett Whitlock	Reliever	recent relief	27	8	7.1%	0.89
Patrick Sandoval	Reliever	recent relief	26	2	6.9%	0.86
Brayan Bello	Reliever	recent relief	26	3	6.9%	0.86
Jedixson Paez	Reliever	recent relief	18	1	5.0%	0.62
Jake Bennett	Reliever	recent relief	14	1	4.0%	0.51
Tyron Guerrero	Reliever	recent relief	12	3	3.6%	0.45

BOS relievers against the NYY lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Wyatt Olds	Reliever	NYY (12% of relief)	1.48	0.322 → 0.321	-0.001	0.328 → 0.355	+0.027	0.132 → 0.144	+0.013	0.045 → 0.054	+0.009

Erik Miller	Reliever	NYY (12% of relief)	1.46	0.281 → 0.281	-0.001	0.435 → 0.466	+0.032	0.182 → 0.198	+0.017	0.036 → 0.043	+0.008

Greg Weissert	Reliever	NYY (10% of relief)	1.31	0.283 → 0.282	-0.001	0.303 → 0.327	+0.024	0.108 → 0.118	+0.010	0.040 → 0.049	+0.008

Alec Gamboa	Reliever	NYY (10% of relief)	1.28	0.273 → 0.272	-0.001	0.252 → 0.273	+0.021	0.115 → 0.126	+0.011	0.033 → 0.040	+0.007

Jovani Morán	Reliever	NYY (8% of relief)	0.95	0.178 → 0.178	-0.001	0.244 → 0.263	+0.019	0.105 → 0.114	+0.010	0.030 → 0.036	+0.006

Raymond Burgos	Reliever	NYY (7% of relief)	0.92	0.200 → 0.199	-0.001	0.204 → 0.220	+0.017	0.082 → 0.090	+0.008	0.028 → 0.034	+0.006

Aroldis Chapman	Closer	NYY (7% of relief)	0.89	0.518 → 0.516	-0.002	1.472 → 1.577	+0.105	0.488 → 0.534	+0.046	0.044 → 0.053	+0.009

Garrett Whitlock	Reliever	NYY (7% of relief)	0.89	0.186 → 0.186	-0.001	0.248 → 0.266	+0.018	0.059 → 0.064	+0.006	0.023 → 0.028	+0.005

Patrick Sandoval	Reliever	NYY (7% of relief)	0.86	0.209 → 0.209	-0.001	0.195 → 0.210	+0.016	0.083 → 0.090	+0.008	0.023 → 0.028	+0.005

Brayan Bello	Reliever	NYY (7% of relief)	0.86	0.202 → 0.201	-0.001	0.162 → 0.176	+0.014	0.065 → 0.071	+0.006	0.023 → 0.028	+0.005

Jedixson Paez	Reliever	NYY (5% of relief)	0.62	0.135 → 0.135	0	0.138 → 0.149	+0.011	0.056 → 0.061	+0.005	0.019 → 0.023	+0.004

Jake Bennett	Reliever	NYY (4% of relief)	0.51	0.115 → 0.114	0	0.102 → 0.111	+0.009	0.032 → 0.035	+0.003	0.015 → 0.018	+0.003

Tyron Guerrero	Reliever	NYY (4% of relief)	0.45	0.097 → 0.097	0	0.108 → 0.117	+0.009	0.031 → 0.034	+0.003	0.011 → 0.014	+0.002

NYY hitters vs Sonny Gray and the bullpen

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to NYY hitter lines. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Spencer Jones	RF	Sonny Gray + bullpen	4.11	0.929 → 0.923	-0.006	1.549 → 1.575	+0.026	0.353 → 0.310	-0.044	0.162 → 0.143	-0.019

George Lombard Jr.	SS	Sonny Gray + bullpen	4.01	0.888 → 0.882	-0.006	1.122 → 1.145	+0.023	0.271 → 0.237	-0.033	0.168 → 0.148	-0.020

Ben Rice	DH	Sonny Gray + bullpen	4.28	0.939 → 0.933	-0.006	1.040 → 1.060	+0.020	0.501 → 0.441	-0.060	0.307 → 0.271	-0.036

Cody Bellinger	LF	Sonny Gray + bullpen	4.39	0.944 → 0.938	-0.006	0.766 → 0.783	+0.017	0.434 → 0.381	-0.053	0.144 → 0.127	-0.017

Luis García Jr.	1B	Sonny Gray + bullpen	4.09	1.035 → 1.029	-0.006	0.820 → 0.837	+0.017	0.225 → 0.196	-0.029	0.252 → 0.223	-0.029

Austin Wells	C	Sonny Gray + bullpen	3.29	0.590 → 0.586	-0.004	0.881 → 0.898	+0.017	0.357 → 0.314	-0.043	0.123 → 0.108	-0.015

Ryan McMahon	3B	Sonny Gray + bullpen	3.31	0.660 → 0.656	-0.004	1.021 → 1.040	+0.019	0.268 → 0.235	-0.033	0.114 → 0.101	-0.014

Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2B	Sonny Gray + bullpen	3.76	0.772 → 0.767	-0.005	1.169 → 1.190	+0.021	0.363 → 0.319	-0.044	0.140 → 0.124	-0.017

Trent Grisham	CF	Sonny Gray + bullpen	3.91	0.812 → 0.807	-0.005	0.789 → 0.806	+0.017	0.430 → 0.378	-0.052	0.170 → 0.149	-0.020

NYY starter against the BOS lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Max Fried	Starter	BOS	21.38	3.770 → 3.832	+0.061	5.409 → 5.244	-0.165	1.427 → 1.392	-0.035	0.380 → 0.380	-0.001

NYY bullpen: the full relief corps (6 arms)

Exposure. Starter 21.4 batters faced, bullpen 15.2 (41.6% of the game), from the club's real 36.6 staff batters faced per game over 23 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 39.5% across 3 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
John Schreiber	Reliever	recent relief	46	12	19.9%	3.04
David Bednar	Closer	published staff, recent relief	46	10	19.9%	3.04
Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	published staff, recent relief	42	10	18.3%	2.79
Brent Headrick	Setup Man	published staff, recent relief	41	11	17.9%	2.73
Ryan Yarbrough	Reliever	recent relief	30	5	13.4%	2.04
Will Warren	Reliever	recent relief	23	2	10.6%	1.61

NYY relievers against the BOS lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
John Schreiber	Reliever	BOS (20% of relief)	3.04	0.634 → 0.644	+0.010	0.538 → 0.520	-0.018	0.301 → 0.294	-0.007	0.090 → 0.090	0

David Bednar	Closer	BOS (20% of relief)	3.04	0.741 → 0.753	+0.012	1.113 → 1.080	-0.033	0.316 → 0.308	-0.008	0.052 → 0.052	0

Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	BOS (18% of relief)	2.79	0.999 → 1.015	+0.016	1.032 → 1.000	-0.033	0.507 → 0.495	-0.012	0.086 → 0.086	0

Brent Headrick	Setup Man	BOS (18% of relief)	2.73	0.857 → 0.871	+0.014	1.401 → 1.361	-0.040	0.440 → 0.429	-0.011	0.117 → 0.117	0

Ryan Yarbrough	Reliever	BOS (13% of relief)	2.04	0.425 → 0.432	+0.007	0.397 → 0.385	-0.013	0.174 → 0.170	-0.004	0.048 → 0.048	0

Will Warren	Reliever	BOS (11% of relief)	1.61	0.370 → 0.375	+0.006	0.374 → 0.362	-0.011	0.130 → 0.127	-0.003	0.050 → 0.050	0

20260930_CHC@SD — team layer withheld (no gate recorded); runs moved away 0 / home 0

Kevin Gausman (RHP, 24.5 BF)
H 0.2325 Below average · SO 0.2430 Average · BB 0.0672 Very good · HR 0.0331 Below average

Nick Pivetta (RHP, 16.9 BF)
H 0.2091 Average · SO 0.2713 Good · BB 0.0740 Good · HR 0.0265 Good

Warnings: home starter is projected 16.8749 batters faced, outside the real p10-p90 band of 17-27

CHC hitters vs Nick Pivetta and the bullpen

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to CHC hitter lines. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Alex Bregman	DH	Nick Pivetta + bullpen	4.06	0.857 → 0.811	-0.046	0.736 → 0.924	+0.188	0.399 → 0.378	-0.022	0.159 → 0.137	-0.022

Seiya Suzuki	RF	Nick Pivetta + bullpen	4.32	0.900 → 0.852	-0.048	1.141 → 1.394	+0.253	0.483 → 0.458	-0.026	0.174 → 0.150	-0.024

Michael Busch	1B	Nick Pivetta + bullpen	4.09	0.743 → 0.703	-0.040	0.987 → 1.210	+0.223	0.496 → 0.469	-0.026	0.103 → 0.089	-0.014

Matt Shaw	3B	Nick Pivetta + bullpen	3.64	0.739 → 0.699	-0.040	0.782 → 0.961	+0.179	0.314 → 0.297	-0.017	0.101 → 0.087	-0.014

Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	Nick Pivetta + bullpen	4.42	0.924 → 0.875	-0.049	1.281 → 1.559	+0.278	0.486 → 0.460	-0.026	0.220 → 0.190	-0.030

Ian Happ	LF	Nick Pivetta + bullpen	3.98	0.738 → 0.698	-0.041	1.314 → 1.582	+0.268	0.462 → 0.438	-0.025	0.127 → 0.109	-0.018

Carson Kelly	C	Nick Pivetta + bullpen	3.67	0.812 → 0.769	-0.043	0.780 → 0.973	+0.193	0.315 → 0.297	-0.017	0.107 → 0.092	-0.015

Nico Hoerner	2B	Nick Pivetta + bullpen	3.89	0.855 → 0.810	-0.045	0.404 → 0.516	+0.112	0.247 → 0.234	-0.014	0.063 → 0.054	-0.009

Dansby Swanson	SS	Nick Pivetta + bullpen	3.59	0.701 → 0.662	-0.038	0.979 → 1.201	+0.221	0.344 → 0.326	-0.019	0.124 → 0.107	-0.017

CHC starter against the SD lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Kevin Gausman	Starter	SD	24.54	5.974 → 6.051	+0.077	6.244 → 6.050	-0.194	1.566 → 1.603	+0.037	1.454 → 1.535	+0.080

CHC bullpen: the full relief corps (13 arms)

Exposure. Starter 24.5 batters faced, bullpen 12.8 (34.3% of the game), from the club's real 37.4 staff batters faced per game over 26 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 25.4% across 2 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Aaron Civale	Reliever	recent relief	60	8	14.2%	1.82
Ryan Rolison	Reliever	recent relief	52	13	12.4%	1.59
Colin Rea	Reliever	recent relief	41	7	9.9%	1.27
Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	published staff, recent relief	39	10	9.4%	1.21
Jacob Webb	Closer	published staff, recent relief	39	9	9.4%	1.21
Ryan Zeferjahn	Reliever	recent relief	37	10	9.0%	1.15
Caleb Thielbar	Reliever	recent relief	36	9	8.8%	1.12
Javier Assad	Reliever	recent relief	31	6	7.6%	0.98
Braxton Garrett	Reliever	recent relief	21	1	5.4%	0.69
Edward Cabrera	Reliever	recent relief	21	3	5.4%	0.69
Trent Thornton	Reliever	recent relief	19	5	4.9%	0.63
Tyler Ferguson	Reliever	recent relief	8	1	2.5%	0.32
Gavin Hollowell	Reliever	recent relief	2	1	1.1%	0.14

CHC relievers against the SD lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Aaron Civale	Reliever	SD (14% of relief)	1.82	0.434 → 0.439	+0.005	0.343 → 0.332	-0.011	0.140 → 0.143	+0.003	0.062 → 0.065	+0.003

Ryan Rolison	Reliever	SD (12% of relief)	1.59	0.338 → 0.343	+0.004	0.350 → 0.339	-0.011	0.160 → 0.164	+0.004	0.045 → 0.047	+0.003

Colin Rea	Reliever	SD (10% of relief)	1.27	0.286 → 0.290	+0.004	0.226 → 0.218	-0.008	0.104 → 0.106	+0.002	0.042 → 0.045	+0.002

Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	SD (9% of relief)	1.21	0.586 → 0.593	+0.008	0.913 → 0.884	-0.029	0.397 → 0.406	+0.009	0.113 → 0.119	+0.006

Jacob Webb	Closer	SD (9% of relief)	1.21	0.939 → 0.952	+0.012	0.967 → 0.937	-0.030	0.428 → 0.438	+0.010	0.171 → 0.180	+0.009

Ryan Zeferjahn	Reliever	SD (9% of relief)	1.15	0.218 → 0.221	+0.003	0.336 → 0.327	-0.010	0.133 → 0.136	+0.003	0.032 → 0.033	+0.002

Caleb Thielbar	Reliever	SD (9% of relief)	1.12	0.248 → 0.251	+0.003	0.300 → 0.290	-0.009	0.096 → 0.099	+0.002	0.042 → 0.045	+0.002

Javier Assad	Reliever	SD (8% of relief)	0.98	0.210 → 0.213	+0.003	0.170 → 0.164	-0.006	0.074 → 0.076	+0.002	0.034 → 0.035	+0.002

Braxton Garrett	Reliever	SD (5% of relief)	0.69	0.150 → 0.152	+0.002	0.153 → 0.148	-0.005	0.061 → 0.063	+0.001	0.021 → 0.022	+0.001

Edward Cabrera	Reliever	SD (5% of relief)	0.69	0.158 → 0.160	+0.002	0.143 → 0.138	-0.005	0.068 → 0.070	+0.002	0.026 → 0.027	+0.001

Trent Thornton	Reliever	SD (5% of relief)	0.63	0.137 → 0.138	+0.002	0.111 → 0.107	-0.004	0.054 → 0.056	+0.001	0.021 → 0.023	+0.001

Tyler Ferguson	Reliever	SD (2% of relief)	0.32	0.069 → 0.070	+0.001	0.070 → 0.068	-0.002	0.028 → 0.029	+0.001	0.010 → 0.010	+0.001

Gavin Hollowell	Reliever	SD (1% of relief)	0.14	0.031 → 0.032	0	0.032 → 0.031	-0.001	0.013 → 0.013	0	0.004 → 0.005	0

SD hitters vs Kevin Gausman and the bullpen

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to SD hitter lines. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Ty France	1B	Kevin Gausman + bullpen	4.08	1.025 → 1.073	+0.048	0.967 → 1.028	+0.061	0.290 → 0.243	-0.046	0.139 → 0.150	+0.011

Dustin Harris	LF	Kevin Gausman + bullpen	4.14	0.963 → 1.010	+0.046	0.708 → 0.752	+0.045	0.302 → 0.254	-0.048	0.080 → 0.086	+0.006

Manny Machado	3B	Kevin Gausman + bullpen	4.24	0.918 → 0.963	+0.045	0.933 → 0.993	+0.059	0.418 → 0.353	-0.065	0.183 → 0.197	+0.014

Fernando Tatis Jr.	RF	Kevin Gausman + bullpen	4.31	1.092 → 1.143	+0.051	0.892 → 0.951	+0.059	0.354 → 0.298	-0.056	0.168 → 0.181	+0.013

Ethan Salas	C	Kevin Gausman + bullpen	3.43	0.776 → 0.813	+0.037	0.821 → 0.873	+0.052	0.245 → 0.206	-0.039	0.113 → 0.122	+0.009

Xander Bogaerts	SS	Kevin Gausman + bullpen	3.86	0.829 → 0.869	+0.041	0.773 → 0.825	+0.051	0.414 → 0.350	-0.064	0.087 → 0.094	+0.007

Jackson Merrill	CF	Kevin Gausman + bullpen	4.09	0.929 → 0.974	+0.044	1.106 → 1.174	+0.068	0.270 → 0.226	-0.044	0.145 → 0.157	+0.011

Austin Hays	DH	Kevin Gausman + bullpen	3.41	0.862 → 0.904	+0.042	0.997 → 1.060	+0.063	0.180 → 0.151	-0.029	0.118 → 0.127	+0.009

Jake Cronenworth	2B	Kevin Gausman + bullpen	3.72	0.758 → 0.795	+0.037	0.926 → 0.984	+0.058	0.323 → 0.272	-0.051	0.072 → 0.078	+0.006

SD starter against the CHC lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Nick Pivetta	Starter	CHC	16.87	3.273 → 3.304	+0.031	4.497 → 4.278	-0.219	0.644 → 0.758	+0.114	0.345 → 0.382	+0.037

SD bullpen: the full relief corps (8 arms)

Exposure. Starter 16.9 batters faced, bullpen 20.9 (55.3% of the game), from the club's real 37.8 staff batters faced per game over 26 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 51.0% across 4 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Mason Miller	Closer	published staff, recent relief	53	11	17.8%	3.71
Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	published staff, recent relief	51	13	17.1%	3.58
Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	published staff, recent relief	49	11	16.5%	3.45
David Morgan	Reliever	recent relief	47	12	15.9%	3.31
Yuki Matsui	Reliever	recent relief	46	13	15.6%	3.25
Randy Vásquez	Reliever	recent relief	31	4	10.8%	2.25
Jason Adam	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	published staff, recent relief	8	2	3.5%	0.73
Joe Musgrove	Reliever	recent relief	6	1	2.9%	0.60

SD relievers against the CHC lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Mason Miller	Closer	CHC (18% of relief)	3.71	0.633 → 0.639	+0.006	1.714 → 1.647	-0.068	0.392 → 0.459	+0.068	0.078 → 0.086	+0.008

Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	CHC (17% of relief)	3.58	0.722 → 0.729	+0.007	1.237 → 1.178	-0.059	0.424 → 0.498	+0.074	0.039 → 0.043	+0.004

Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	CHC (17% of relief)	3.45	0.985 → 0.994	+0.009	1.308 → 1.243	-0.065	0.343 → 0.403	+0.060	0.110 → 0.121	+0.012

David Morgan	Reliever	CHC (16% of relief)	3.31	0.732 → 0.739	+0.007	0.776 → 0.737	-0.040	0.373 → 0.436	+0.063	0.085 → 0.094	+0.009

Yuki Matsui	Reliever	CHC (16% of relief)	3.25	0.591 → 0.597	+0.006	0.819 → 0.778	-0.041	0.389 → 0.454	+0.065	0.095 → 0.105	+0.010

Randy Vásquez	Reliever	CHC (11% of relief)	2.25	0.524 → 0.528	+0.005	0.354 → 0.334	-0.020	0.154 → 0.182	+0.027	0.065 → 0.071	+0.007

Jason Adam	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	CHC (3% of relief)	0.73	0.841 → 0.849	+0.008	0.553 → 0.523	-0.030	0.302 → 0.355	+0.053	0.119 → 0.131	+0.013

Joe Musgrove	Reliever	CHC (3% of relief)	0.60	0.130 → 0.131	+0.001	0.132 → 0.125	-0.007	0.053 → 0.062	+0.009	0.018 → 0.020	+0.002

20260930_CHW@HOU — team layer withheld (no gate recorded); runs moved away 0 / home 0

Sean Burke (RHP, 23.2 BF)
H 0.2062 Good · SO 0.2528 Good · BB 0.0893 Average · HR 0.0286 Average

Hunter Brown (RHP, 22.4 BF)
H 0.1943 Very good · SO 0.2668 Good · BB 0.1134 Poor · HR 0.0274 Average

Warnings: away published staff projects 47.329 batters faced, outside the real p10-p90 band of 30-45; the exposure here uses the club's real 35.79 per game instead

CHW hitters vs Hunter Brown and the bullpen

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to CHW hitter lines. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Sam Antonacci	LF	Hunter Brown + bullpen	4.28	0.848 → 0.784	-0.063	0.743 → 0.860	+0.116	0.448 → 0.542	+0.094	0.090 → 0.085	-0.005

Munetaka Murakami	1B	Hunter Brown + bullpen	4.56	0.705 → 0.650	-0.055	1.750 → 1.952	+0.203	0.829 → 0.985	+0.157	0.237 → 0.225	-0.012

Kyle Teel	C	Hunter Brown + bullpen	4.12	0.736 → 0.680	-0.056	1.489 → 1.700	+0.211	0.538 → 0.649	+0.111	0.143 → 0.136	-0.007

Tristan Peters	CF	Hunter Brown + bullpen	3.80	0.762 → 0.705	-0.057	0.854 → 0.982	+0.128	0.381 → 0.461	+0.080	0.114 → 0.108	-0.006

Miguel Vargas	3B	Hunter Brown + bullpen	4.46	0.803 → 0.742	-0.061	0.909 → 1.046	+0.136	0.690 → 0.824	+0.134	0.187 → 0.177	-0.010

Braden Montgomery	RF	Hunter Brown + bullpen	3.75	0.680 → 0.628	-0.052	0.878 → 1.006	+0.128	0.473 → 0.569	+0.096	0.091 → 0.086	-0.005

Andrew Benintendi	DH	Hunter Brown + bullpen	3.59	0.663 → 0.613	-0.050	1.018 → 1.159	+0.141	0.398 → 0.481	+0.083	0.134 → 0.127	-0.007

Chase Meidroth	2B	Hunter Brown + bullpen	3.86	0.782 → 0.724	-0.058	1.027 → 1.173	+0.146	0.432 → 0.521	+0.089	0.107 → 0.102	-0.006

Colson Montgomery	SS	Hunter Brown + bullpen	3.67	0.600 → 0.554	-0.047	1.482 → 1.652	+0.171	0.403 → 0.487	+0.084	0.175 → 0.166	-0.009

CHW starter against the HOU lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Sean Burke	Starter	HOU	23.18	4.413 → 4.553	+0.139	5.890 → 5.470	-0.420	3.682 → 3.566	-0.116	0.552 → 0.669	+0.117

CHW bullpen: the full relief corps (8 arms)

Exposure. Starter 23.2 batters faced, bullpen 12.6 (35.2% of the game), from the club's real 35.8 staff batters faced per game over 2 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 51.0% across 4 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Hagen Smith	Reliever	recent relief	56	9	31.2%	3.94
Erick Fedde	Reliever	recent relief	33	2	19.1%	2.40
Sean Newcomb	Setup Man	published staff, recent relief	26	3	15.3%	1.93
Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	published staff, recent relief	25	7	14.8%	1.87
Davis Martin	Reliever	recent relief	20	1	12.2%	1.53
David Sandlin	Reliever	recent relief	5	1	4.2%	0.53
Grant Taylor	Closer	published staff	0	0	1.6%	0.20
Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	published staff	0	0	1.6%	0.20

CHW relievers against the HOU lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Hagen Smith	Reliever	HOU (31% of relief)	3.94	0.854 → 0.880	+0.027	0.871 → 0.806	-0.065	0.350 → 0.339	-0.011	0.120 → 0.145	+0.025

Erick Fedde	Reliever	HOU (19% of relief)	2.40	0.541 → 0.558	+0.017	0.409 → 0.377	-0.032	0.208 → 0.201	-0.007	0.083 → 0.101	+0.018

Sean Newcomb	Setup Man	HOU (15% of relief)	1.93	1.853 → 1.912	+0.059	1.700 → 1.575	-0.125	0.665 → 0.644	-0.021	0.036 → 0.043	+0.008

Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	HOU (15% of relief)	1.87	1.004 → 1.035	+0.031	0.900 → 0.833	-0.068	0.270 → 0.262	-0.009	0.079 → 0.096	+0.017

Davis Martin	Reliever	HOU (12% of relief)	1.53	0.353 → 0.364	+0.011	0.307 → 0.284	-0.023	0.119 → 0.115	-0.004	0.040 → 0.048	+0.008

David Sandlin	Reliever	HOU (4% of relief)	0.53	0.115 → 0.119	+0.004	0.125 → 0.116	-0.009	0.044 → 0.043	-0.001	0.018 → 0.022	+0.004

Grant Taylor	Closer	HOU (2% of relief)	0.20	1.099 → 1.134	+0.035	2.363 → 2.204	-0.159	0.548 → 0.530	-0.017	0.097 → 0.117	+0.021

Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	HOU (2% of relief)	0.20	0.895 → 0.923	+0.028	1.412 → 1.314	-0.098	0.707 → 0.686	-0.021	0.106 → 0.129	+0.022

HOU hitters vs Sean Burke and the bullpen

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to HOU hitter lines. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Isaac Paredes	DH	Sean Burke + bullpen	4.14	0.821 → 0.799	-0.022	0.690 → 0.749	+0.059	0.445 → 0.440	-0.005	0.164 → 0.154	-0.010

Yordan Alvarez	LF	Sean Burke + bullpen	4.47	0.929 → 0.904	-0.025	0.849 → 0.918	+0.069	0.686 → 0.679	-0.007	0.250 → 0.235	-0.015

Jose Altuve	2B	Sean Burke + bullpen	4.25	0.884 → 0.860	-0.024	1.033 → 1.114	+0.081	0.334 → 0.330	-0.004	0.139 → 0.130	-0.008

Lucas Spence	CF	Sean Burke + bullpen	3.86	0.760 → 0.739	-0.021	1.329 → 1.430	+0.102	0.398 → 0.394	-0.005	0.159 → 0.149	-0.009

Yainer Diaz	C	Sean Burke + bullpen	4.02	0.921 → 0.896	-0.025	0.849 → 0.919	+0.070	0.207 → 0.204	-0.003	0.167 → 0.157	-0.010

Nick Allen	3B	Sean Burke + bullpen	3.27	0.694 → 0.675	-0.019	0.822 → 0.885	+0.063	0.255 → 0.252	-0.003	0.097 → 0.091	-0.006

Jeremy Peña	SS	Sean Burke + bullpen	4.43	0.995 → 0.968	-0.027	1.297 → 1.393	+0.096	0.273 → 0.270	-0.003	0.206 → 0.194	-0.012

Christian Walker	1B	Sean Burke + bullpen	3.84	0.745 → 0.725	-0.021	1.058 → 1.137	+0.079	0.339 → 0.335	-0.004	0.179 → 0.168	-0.011

Cam Smith	RF	Sean Burke + bullpen	3.66	0.694 → 0.674	-0.019	1.143 → 1.226	+0.082	0.300 → 0.297	-0.004	0.145 → 0.136	-0.009

HOU starter against the CHW lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Hunter Brown	Starter	CHW	22.39	4.210 → 4.160	-0.051	6.706 → 6.991	+0.285	2.346 → 2.666	+0.320	0.424 → 0.466	+0.042

HOU bullpen: the full relief corps (14 arms)

Exposure. Starter 22.4 batters faced, bullpen 14.9 (40.0% of the game), from the club's real 37.3 staff batters faced per game over 26 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 44.2% across 4 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
AJ Blubaugh	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	published staff, recent relief	55	12	10.9%	1.64
Bennett Sousa	Reliever	recent relief	53	13	10.6%	1.58
Ethan Pecko	Reliever	recent relief	49	3	9.8%	1.47
Bryan King	Reliever	recent relief	46	10	9.2%	1.38
Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	published staff, recent relief	46	13	9.2%	1.38
Miguel Ullola	Reliever	recent relief	42	6	8.5%	1.27
Enyel De Los Santos	Reliever	recent relief	38	7	7.7%	1.16
Tatsuya Imai	Reliever	recent relief	37	5	7.5%	1.13
Josh Hader	Closer	published staff, recent relief	37	9	7.5%	1.13
Ronel Blanco	Reliever	recent relief	25	2	5.3%	0.79
Logan VanWey	Setup Man	published staff, recent relief	25	6	5.3%	0.79
Josh Hendrickson	Reliever	recent relief	17	3	3.8%	0.56
Kai-Wei Teng	Reliever	recent relief	14	2	3.2%	0.48
Steven Okert	Reliever	recent relief	4	1	1.3%	0.20

HOU relievers against the CHW lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
AJ Blubaugh	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	CHW (11% of relief)	1.64	1.102 → 1.089	-0.013	1.134 → 1.184	+0.051	0.663 → 0.755	+0.092	0.246 → 0.271	+0.025

Bennett Sousa	Reliever	CHW (11% of relief)	1.58	0.362 → 0.358	-0.004	0.355 → 0.371	+0.016	0.169 → 0.193	+0.023	0.050 → 0.055	+0.005

Ethan Pecko	Reliever	CHW (10% of relief)	1.47	0.300 → 0.296	-0.004	0.271 → 0.284	+0.013	0.138 → 0.157	+0.019	0.046 → 0.051	+0.005

Bryan King	Reliever	CHW (9% of relief)	1.38	0.321 → 0.317	-0.004	0.265 → 0.278	+0.013	0.117 → 0.134	+0.017	0.043 → 0.047	+0.004

Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	CHW (9% of relief)	1.38	0.741 → 0.732	-0.009	1.142 → 1.190	+0.048	0.544 → 0.617	+0.073	0.197 → 0.216	+0.020

Miguel Ullola	Reliever	CHW (8% of relief)	1.27	0.275 → 0.272	-0.003	0.281 → 0.293	+0.013	0.113 → 0.129	+0.016	0.039 → 0.042	+0.004

Enyel De Los Santos	Reliever	CHW (8% of relief)	1.16	0.258 → 0.255	-0.003	0.254 → 0.266	+0.011	0.084 → 0.096	+0.012	0.038 → 0.042	+0.004

Tatsuya Imai	Reliever	CHW (8% of relief)	1.13	0.217 → 0.215	-0.003	0.310 → 0.323	+0.013	0.148 → 0.168	+0.020	0.033 → 0.036	+0.003

Josh Hader	Closer	CHW (8% of relief)	1.13	0.479 → 0.473	-0.006	1.019 → 1.060	+0.042	0.410 → 0.468	+0.058	0.021 → 0.023	+0.002

Ronel Blanco	Reliever	CHW (5% of relief)	0.79	0.169 → 0.167	-0.002	0.165 → 0.173	+0.008	0.079 → 0.090	+0.011	0.030 → 0.033	+0.003

Logan VanWey	Setup Man	CHW (5% of relief)	0.79	0.826 → 0.817	-0.010	0.679 → 0.710	+0.031	0.100 → 0.114	+0.014	0.074 → 0.081	+0.007

Josh Hendrickson	Reliever	CHW (4% of relief)	0.56	0.122 → 0.121	-0.001	0.125 → 0.130	+0.006	0.050 → 0.057	+0.007	0.017 → 0.019	+0.002

Kai-Wei Teng	Reliever	CHW (3% of relief)	0.48	0.102 → 0.101	-0.001	0.106 → 0.111	+0.005	0.046 → 0.053	+0.006	0.015 → 0.016	+0.002

Steven Okert	Reliever	CHW (1% of relief)	0.20	0.039 → 0.038	-0.001	0.050 → 0.052	+0.002	0.013 → 0.015	+0.002	0.006 → 0.006	+0.001

20260930_PHI@ATL — team layer withheld (no gate recorded); runs moved away 0 / home 0

Cristopher Sánchez (LHP, 26.8 BF)
H 0.2326 Poor · SO 0.2654 Good · BB 0.0582 Very good · HR 0.0250 Good

Tyler Mahle (RHP, 24.4 BF)
H 0.2222 Average · SO 0.2229 Average · BB 0.0778 Good · HR 0.0317 Average

PHI hitters vs Tyler Mahle and the bullpen

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to PHI hitter lines. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Alec Bohm	1B	Tyler Mahle + bullpen	3.92	0.963 → 0.970	+0.007	0.571 → 0.590	+0.018	0.263 → 0.235	-0.028	0.103 → 0.103	+0.001

Bryce Harper	RF	Tyler Mahle + bullpen	4.39	0.983 → 0.991	+0.008	0.904 → 0.931	+0.026	0.549 → 0.495	-0.054	0.180 → 0.181	+0.001

Trea Turner	SS	Tyler Mahle + bullpen	4.24	1.081 → 1.090	+0.008	0.904 → 0.931	+0.027	0.259 → 0.231	-0.027	0.118 → 0.119	+0.001

Edmundo Sosa	3B	Tyler Mahle + bullpen	3.55	0.868 → 0.874	+0.007	0.829 → 0.853	+0.024	0.142 → 0.127	-0.015	0.132 → 0.133	+0.001

Kyle Schwarber	DH	Tyler Mahle + bullpen	4.28	0.867 → 0.874	+0.007	1.198 → 1.228	+0.031	0.515 → 0.464	-0.051	0.243 → 0.244	+0.001

Bryson Stott	2B	Tyler Mahle + bullpen	3.89	0.849 → 0.856	+0.007	0.669 → 0.690	+0.021	0.350 → 0.314	-0.036	0.081 → 0.082	0

Brandon Marsh	LF	Tyler Mahle + bullpen	3.35	0.790 → 0.796	+0.006	0.806 → 0.829	+0.022	0.203 → 0.182	-0.022	0.111 → 0.112	+0.001

Justin Crawford	CF	Tyler Mahle + bullpen	3.31	0.771 → 0.777	+0.006	0.623 → 0.642	+0.019	0.200 → 0.179	-0.021	0.053 → 0.053	0

J.T. Realmuto	C	Tyler Mahle + bullpen	3.43	0.800 → 0.806	+0.006	0.733 → 0.754	+0.021	0.238 → 0.213	-0.025	0.091 → 0.091	+0.001

PHI starter against the ATL lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Cristopher Sánchez	Starter	ATL	26.80	6.599 → 6.856	+0.257	5.983 → 5.697	-0.286	1.300 → 1.190	-0.110	0.859 → 0.990	+0.131

PHI bullpen: the full relief corps (12 arms)

Exposure. Starter 26.8 batters faced, bullpen 10.5 (28.2% of the game), from the club's real 37.3 staff batters faced per game over 26 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 31.3% across 3 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Alex McFarlane	Reliever	recent relief	47	11	13.6%	1.42
José Alvarado	Reliever	recent relief	47	12	13.6%	1.42
Jhoan Duran	Closer	published staff, recent relief	47	11	13.6%	1.42
Chase Shugart	Reliever	recent relief	35	9	10.3%	1.08
Orion Kerkering	Reliever	recent relief	33	5	9.8%	1.03
Tanner Banks	Reliever	recent relief	30	4	8.9%	0.94
Jonathan Bowlan	Setup Man	published staff, recent relief	29	7	8.7%	0.91
Brooks Raley	Reliever	recent relief	25	7	7.6%	0.80
Tim Mayza	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	published staff, recent relief	20	6	6.2%	0.65
Max Lazar	Reliever	recent relief	10	2	3.5%	0.37
Grant Holman	Reliever	recent relief	7	1	2.7%	0.28
Jesús Luzardo	Reliever	recent relief	3	1	1.6%	0.17

PHI relievers against the ATL lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Alex McFarlane	Reliever	ATL (14% of relief)	1.42	0.309 → 0.321	+0.012	0.315 → 0.299	-0.016	0.127 → 0.116	-0.010	0.043 → 0.050	+0.007

José Alvarado	Reliever	ATL (14% of relief)	1.42	0.321 → 0.334	+0.013	0.355 → 0.337	-0.017	0.147 → 0.135	-0.012	0.037 → 0.043	+0.006

Jhoan Duran	Closer	ATL (14% of relief)	1.42	0.755 → 0.785	+0.030	1.308 → 1.250	-0.058	0.168 → 0.154	-0.014	0.079 → 0.091	+0.012

Chase Shugart	Reliever	ATL (10% of relief)	1.08	0.223 → 0.232	+0.009	0.274 → 0.261	-0.013	0.098 → 0.090	-0.008	0.038 → 0.044	+0.006

Orion Kerkering	Reliever	ATL (10% of relief)	1.03	0.208 → 0.216	+0.008	0.238 → 0.226	-0.012	0.116 → 0.106	-0.009	0.027 → 0.031	+0.004

Tanner Banks	Reliever	ATL (9% of relief)	0.94	0.231 → 0.240	+0.009	0.204 → 0.194	-0.010	0.082 → 0.075	-0.007	0.033 → 0.037	+0.005

Jonathan Bowlan	Setup Man	ATL (9% of relief)	0.91	0.885 → 0.921	+0.036	1.293 → 1.234	-0.059	0.266 → 0.244	-0.022	0.207 → 0.238	+0.031

Brooks Raley	Reliever	ATL (8% of relief)	0.80	0.172 → 0.178	+0.007	0.179 → 0.170	-0.009	0.072 → 0.066	-0.006	0.023 → 0.027	+0.004

Tim Mayza	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	ATL (6% of relief)	0.65	0.832 → 0.865	+0.033	0.784 → 0.745	-0.039	0.332 → 0.304	-0.028	0.149 → 0.172	+0.023

Max Lazar	Reliever	ATL (4% of relief)	0.37	0.080 → 0.083	+0.003	0.082 → 0.078	-0.004	0.033 → 0.030	-0.003	0.011 → 0.013	+0.002

Grant Holman	Reliever	ATL (3% of relief)	0.28	0.062 → 0.064	+0.003	0.063 → 0.060	-0.003	0.025 → 0.023	-0.002	0.009 → 0.010	+0.001

Jesús Luzardo	Reliever	ATL (2% of relief)	0.17	0.034 → 0.036	+0.001	0.050 → 0.048	-0.002	0.013 → 0.012	-0.001	0.004 → 0.005	+0.001

ATL hitters vs Cristopher Sánchez and the bullpen

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to ATL hitter lines. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Drake Baldwin	DH	Cristopher Sánchez + bullpen	4.31	1.179 → 1.237	+0.059	1.040 → 1.232	+0.192	0.278 → 0.207	-0.071	0.168 → 0.144	-0.023

Mauricio Dubón	LF	Cristopher Sánchez + bullpen	3.90	1.064 → 1.117	+0.053	0.590 → 0.713	+0.123	0.204 → 0.151	-0.053	0.096 → 0.082	-0.013

Ozzie Albies	2B	Cristopher Sánchez + bullpen	3.93	1.063 → 1.117	+0.054	0.650 → 0.779	+0.130	0.236 → 0.175	-0.061	0.128 → 0.110	-0.018

Ronald Acuña Jr.	RF	Cristopher Sánchez + bullpen	4.27	1.090 → 1.145	+0.055	1.009 → 1.193	+0.184	0.367 → 0.275	-0.092	0.187 → 0.162	-0.026

Matt Olson	1B	Cristopher Sánchez + bullpen	3.97	1.006 → 1.057	+0.051	1.107 → 1.302	+0.195	0.257 → 0.192	-0.065	0.230 → 0.199	-0.032

Sean Murphy	C	Cristopher Sánchez + bullpen	3.51	0.796 → 0.837	+0.041	1.103 → 1.304	+0.201	0.257 → 0.192	-0.066	0.103 → 0.089	-0.014

Michael Harris II	CF	Cristopher Sánchez + bullpen	3.78	1.084 → 1.136	+0.053	1.015 → 1.208	+0.193	0.120 → 0.089	-0.032	0.151 → 0.130	-0.021

Austin Riley	3B	Cristopher Sánchez + bullpen	3.69	0.941 → 0.990	+0.049	1.207 → 1.398	+0.191	0.240 → 0.178	-0.061	0.140 → 0.121	-0.020

Ha-Seong Kim	SS	Cristopher Sánchez + bullpen	3.17	0.669 → 0.703	+0.034	0.858 → 1.014	+0.156	0.255 → 0.190	-0.065	0.064 → 0.055	-0.009

ATL starter against the PHI lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Tyler Mahle	Starter	PHI	24.37	5.071 → 5.096	+0.025	5.110 → 4.929	-0.181	1.090 → 1.110	+0.020	0.860 → 0.875	+0.015

ATL bullpen: the full relief corps (10 arms)

Exposure. Starter 24.4 batters faced, bullpen 12.7 (34.2% of the game), from the club's real 37.0 staff batters faced per game over 26 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 35.8% across 3 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	published staff, recent relief	53	10	15.5%	1.96
Brent Suter	Reliever	recent relief	44	6	13.0%	1.65
AJ Smith-Shawver	Reliever	recent relief	41	4	12.2%	1.54
Ray Kerr	Reliever	recent relief	39	5	11.6%	1.47
Victor Mederos	Reliever	recent relief	36	9	10.8%	1.37
Raisel Iglesias	Closer	published staff, recent relief	35	10	10.5%	1.33
Dylan Lee	Setup Man	published staff, recent relief	32	8	9.7%	1.23
Dylan Dodd	Reliever	recent relief	26	6	8.0%	1.02
Grant Holmes	Reliever	recent relief	17	1	5.5%	0.70
Robert Suarez	Reliever	recent relief	9	2	3.3%	0.42

ATL relievers against the PHI lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	PHI (15% of relief)	1.96	1.190 → 1.196	+0.006	1.480 → 1.432	-0.049	0.290 → 0.295	+0.005	0.133 → 0.136	+0.002

Brent Suter	Reliever	PHI (13% of relief)	1.65	0.367 → 0.369	+0.002	0.345 → 0.332	-0.012	0.123 → 0.126	+0.002	0.045 → 0.046	+0.001

AJ Smith-Shawver	Reliever	PHI (12% of relief)	1.54	0.337 → 0.339	+0.002	0.307 → 0.296	-0.011	0.153 → 0.156	+0.003	0.054 → 0.055	+0.001

Ray Kerr	Reliever	PHI (12% of relief)	1.47	0.319 → 0.321	+0.002	0.325 → 0.314	-0.012	0.131 → 0.133	+0.002	0.045 → 0.045	+0.001

Victor Mederos	Reliever	PHI (11% of relief)	1.37	0.281 → 0.282	+0.001	0.310 → 0.299	-0.011	0.125 → 0.128	+0.002	0.034 → 0.034	+0.001

Raisel Iglesias	Closer	PHI (10% of relief)	1.33	0.723 → 0.727	+0.004	1.121 → 1.083	-0.038	0.200 → 0.203	+0.004	0.083 → 0.085	+0.001

Dylan Lee	Setup Man	PHI (10% of relief)	1.23	0.842 → 0.847	+0.004	1.039 → 1.004	-0.034	0.212 → 0.216	+0.004	0.038 → 0.038	+0.001

Dylan Dodd	Reliever	PHI (8% of relief)	1.02	0.196 → 0.197	+0.001	0.266 → 0.257	-0.009	0.083 → 0.084	+0.002	0.030 → 0.030	+0.001

Grant Holmes	Reliever	PHI (6% of relief)	0.70	0.151 → 0.152	+0.001	0.130 → 0.125	-0.005	0.064 → 0.065	+0.001	0.024 → 0.024	0

Robert Suarez	Reliever	PHI (3% of relief)	0.42	0.087 → 0.087	0	0.087 → 0.084	-0.003	0.029 → 0.030	+0.001	0.011 → 0.011	0

Measured from published artifacts and stored KPI values. Nothing recomputed. Per-player adjustments are a measurement of the catalog, not the published line.