Nightly self-improvement · slate 2026-09-21
Generated 2026-09-22T05:00:00.006806-04:00 ET from official finals (mlb-api). Every learning stage is listed with what it did. "Blocked" means it wanted to act and a safety rule stopped it; "nothing to learn" means it had no eligible evidence.
Slate
2026-09-21
status completed
Winners
1/3
Brier 0.2643
Learned or changed
0
of 5 stages
Blocked
1
wanted to act and could not
Release
v4.31.0
DRIFT
What each learning stage did
| Stage | Outcome | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| KPI settlement | failed | did not run |
| Bullpen usage model | nothing to learn | No pregame bullpen forecasts to settle. Refit: not attempted. |
| Adaptive parameter proposal (Luna) | blocked | quarantined_invalid_artifact: slate quarantined from new parameter proposals until critical/error artifact findings are corrected |
| Auto-apply | nothing to learn | no_promotable_candidate |
| Code agent | nothing to learn | disabled_by_config: code changes are made on the development host, never in the container. |
Games
| Game | Predicted | Actual | Home win prob | Result | Main driver | Starters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN@SF | 5-4 | 2-5 | 0.432 | miss | Starting-pitcher projection was wrong | Zebby Matthews: 17 proj / 15 real outs; Blade Tidwell: 16 proj / 10 real outs |
| TOR@BAL | 5-4 | 3-4 | 0.495 | miss | Genuine toss-up that flipped | Trey Yesavage: 15 proj / 6 real outs; Shane Baz: 17 proj / 20 real outs |
| WAS@DET | 4-5 | 2-9 | 0.536 | hit | DJ Herz: 7 proj / 12 real outs; River Ryan: 2 proj / 9 real outs |
Day over day
Rolling evidence window against the prior night. Associations, not causal proof.
| Metric | Prior | Current | Change | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| brier_score | 0.2393 | 0.2409 | 0.0016 | regressed |
| accuracy | 0.6000 | 0.5833 | -0.0167 | regressed |
| team_run_mae | 2.5042 | 2.4917 | -0.0125 | improved |
| total_run_mae | 3.3583 | 3.2833 | -0.0750 | improved |
| calibration_error | 0.0885 | 0.0887 | 0.0002 | regressed |
| starter_er_mae | 1.6855 | 1.6969 | 0.0114 | regressed |
| starter_outs_mae | 3.4839 | 3.5276 | 0.0437 | regressed |
Calibration produced for the next slate
| Metric | Scale used | Measured | Rows | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No calibration produced. | ||||
Luna KPI candidates and their promotion gate
Promotion needs 400+ prospective rows over 5+ slates after the proposal, with a gain interval above zero. Only verified pregame forecasts count; local replays never do.
| KPI | Status | Target | Proposed | Rows | Slates | Gain interval | Progress |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| luna_pitcher_release_speed_vs_righthanded_starters | shadow | SO | 20260923 | 330/400 | 5/5 | [-0.0007, 0.0007] | |
| luna_pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_rhh_righthanded_starters | shadow | HR | 20260923 | 330/400 | 5/5 | [-0.0004, 0.0049] | |
| luna_batter_contact_rate_vs_breaking_righthanded_starters | shadow | H | 20260923 | 330/400 | 5/5 | [-0.0045, 0.0044] | |
| luna_batter_contact_rate_vs_breaking_left_handed_starters_for_strikeouts | shadow | SO | 20260924 | 122/400 | 4/5 | [-0.0027, 0.0021] | |
| luna_pitcher_contact_xwoba_allowed_vs_righthanded_starters_for_strikeouts | shadow | SO | 20260924 | 122/400 | 4/5 | [-0.0001, 0.0000] | |
| luna_pitcher_whiff_rate_breaking_vs_left_handed_hitters_for_hits | shadow | H | 20260924 | 122/400 | 4/5 | [-0.0056, -0.0011] | |
| luna_pitcher_home_run_rate_vs_righthanded_starters | shadow | HR | 20260925 | 122/400 | 4/5 | [-0.0010, 0.0056] | |
| luna_batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball_vs_lhp_for_home_runs | shadow | HR | 20260926 | 86/400 | 3/5 | [-0.0001, -0.0000] | |
| luna_pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_right_handed_starters_for_batter_strikeouts | shadow | SO | 20260929 | 51/400 | 2/5 | [–, –] | |
| luna_batter_whiff_rate_vs_breaking_right_handed_starters_for_hits | shadow | H | 20260929 | 51/400 | 2/5 | [–, –] | |
| luna_batter_walk_rate_vs_righthanded_pitchers_for_home_runs | retired | HR | 20260924 | 0/400 | 0/5 | [–, –] |
Operator actions the cycle asked for (0)
Changes to code or a model recipe are never made by the nightly cycle. These are the measured findings that need one.
| Priority | Owner | Finding | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| No operator actions requested. | |||
Luna post-mortem
Luna (gpt-5.6-luna) post-mortem, status received. Full analysis.
# 1. Evidence receipt and gaps ## Sources received All manifest entries were checked against the supplied evidence: | Source | Status | Purpose | |---|---:|---| | `prediction review` — `/app/output/reports/prediction_review_20260921.json` | Loaded, 79,110 bytes | Official outcomes and scoring errors | | `forensic deep audit` — `/app/output/reports/PREDICTION_SYSTEM_DEEP_AUDIT_20260921.json` | Loaded, 60,154 bytes | Probability, provenance, starter, and decision contracts | | `continuous learning` — `/app/output/learning/continuous_learning_daily_20260921.json` | Loaded, 473,280 bytes | Stage quality, calibration, lineage, score distribution, and starter comparisons | | `detailed report` — `/app/output/reports/detailed_20260921.html` | Loaded, 76,436 bytes | Full game and simulation rendering | | `ultra detailed player audit` — `/app/output/reports/20260921_ultra_detailed_player_audit.html` | Loaded, 6,405,727 bytes | Player-level prediction trace | | `structural audit` — `/app/output/reports/audit_report_20260921.html` | Loaded, 362,566 bytes | Invariant findings | | `integrity revision audit` — `/app/output/reports/audit_report_20260921_integrity_revision.html` | **Missing** | Post-Luna remediation proof for immutable revision artifacts | The missing integrity-revision audit is a material evidence gap for remediation verification. It does not prevent review of the game outcomes or the supplied structural findings, but it prevents confirming that a corrected immutable art