Continuous postgame learning

daily_20260921 · dates 20260921 · generated 2026-09-22T09:00:11.660006+00:00

1-2

Winner picks · 33.3%

Comparable starters · 0 identity mismatches

2/6

Starter ER within ±1

2/6

Starter workload within ±1 inning

Slate coverage

Every calendar day in the requested window is listed. Pending means the prediction exists but the official final result has not settled; Missing review artifact identifies a data gap instead of hiding the day.

Date	Games	Settled	Pending	Hits	Misses	Calibration traces	Review status	Pipeline versions
20260921	3	3	0	1	2	3	Available	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Prioritized optimization roadmap

Runtime evidence for the six recommendations. “Observed games” counts artifacts generated with the relevant trace; older artifacts remain honestly blank.

Priority	Change	Status	Observed games	Evidence
P1	Empirical Confidence Blend	Implemented And Applied	3	applied games: 3formula: w_emp=min(0.5,sample_size/200); final=(1-w_emp)raw+w_empempirical_hit_rate
P1	H2H Base Feature	Implemented And Monitored	3	available games: 1
P2	Score Distribution Widening	Implemented Above 1.4X	3	variance multipliers: [2.05, 2.15]
P2	Simulation Flip Control	Diagnostic Only Without Independent Support	3	simulation flip candidates: 0published flips: 0
P3	Recent Form Quality Blend	Implemented Last 10	3	configured window: 10last 10 games: 3observed windows: [10]
P3	Continuous Calibration Audit	Implemented	3	settled games: 3metric: bucket_calibration_error

Confidence calibration by bucket

bucket_calibration_error = average published confidence − observed hit rate. Positive means overconfident; negative means underconfident. Weighted absolute error: 0.2028.

Bucket	Games	Average confidence	Observed hit rate	Calibration error	Direction
0.50-0.55	2	52.0%	50.0%	2.1%	overconfident
0.55-0.60	1	56.8%	0.0%	56.8%	overconfident

Where the score pipeline gained or lost quality

Direct comparison against official final runs. Positive deltas mean the stage was worse than historical_ml; this is score error, not a synthetic one-game ERA.

Stage	Games	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE	Winner accuracy	Δ team MAE vs base	Δ margin MAE vs base
historical_ml	3	1.9153	1.8757	3.7913	33.3%	0.0	0.0
variance_applied	3	2.0	2.0	4.0	0.0%	0.0847	0.2087
enhanced_prediction	3	2.0	2.0	4.0	33.3%	0.0847	0.2087
embedded_savant_run_environment	3	2.0	2.0	4.0	33.3%	0.0847	0.2087
fundamental_edge_target_review	3	2.0	2.0	4.0	33.3%	0.0847	0.2087
capped_target	3	2.0	2.0	4.0	33.3%	0.0847	0.2087
simulation_result	3	2.0	2.0	4.0	33.3%	0.0847	0.2087
published_final	3	2.0	2.0	4.0	33.3%	0.0847	0.2087

Largest measured regression

{
  "stage": "variance_applied",
  "games": 3,
  "team_run_mae": 2.0,
  "total_run_mae": 2.0,
  "margin_mae": 4.0,
  "winner_hits": 0,
  "winner_accuracy": 0.0,
  "team_run_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.0847,
  "margin_mae_delta_vs_historical_ml": 0.2087
}

Automatic questions

Which recorded score stage reinforced losing picks?

partial_attribution sample=2

Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution.

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	1.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	2	1	0	1	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	0.6456	-0.238	0.4076	0.8836	2	1	1	0	reinforced final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2	0	0	2	recorded but did not change score margin
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2	0	0	2	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2	0	0	2	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	2	0	0	2	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 2,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.0,
      "games_recorded": 2,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.6456,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -0.238,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.4076,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.8836,
      "games_recorded": 2,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 2,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 2,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 2,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 2,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 2,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 2,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 2,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 2,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Which recorded score stage reinforced winning picks?

partial_attribution sample=1

Stage	Positive Toward Pick Run Delta	Negative Away From Pick Run Delta	Net Toward Pick Run Delta	Absolute Run Movement	Games Recorded	Games Supporting Pick	Games Opposing Pick	Games Unchanged	Meaning
enhanced_prediction	1.0	0.0	1.0	1.0	1	1	0	0	reinforced final pick
variance_applied	0.0	-0.2185	-0.2185	0.2185	1	0	1	0	moved away from final pick
embedded_savant_run_environment	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1	0	0	1	recorded but did not change score margin
fundamental_edge_target_review	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1	0	0	1	recorded but did not change score margin
capped_target	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1	0	0	1	recorded but did not change score margin
simulation_result	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	1	0	0	1	recorded but did not change score margin

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "partial_attribution",
  "sample_size": 1,
  "top_stage": "enhanced_prediction",
  "ranking": [
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 1.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 1.0,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 1,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "reinforced final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": -0.2185,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": -0.2185,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.2185,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 1,
      "games_unchanged": 0,
      "meaning": "moved away from final pick"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "positive_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "negative_away_from_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "net_toward_pick_run_delta": 0.0,
      "absolute_run_movement": 0.0,
      "games_recorded": 1,
      "games_supporting_pick": 0,
      "games_opposing_pick": 0,
      "games_unchanged": 1,
      "meaning": "recorded but did not change score margin"
    }
  ],
  "interpretation": "Largest positive recorded pipeline-stage movement toward the final pick. Positive, negative, net, absolute, and unchanged movements are shown separately so opposite games cannot cancel into a misleading zero. This is deterministic trace attribution, not causal SHAP attribution."
}

Are Overs performing worse than Unders?

not_measurable sample=0

The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "The current artifacts contain predicted totals but no total line, Over/Under selection, price, or settled total bet.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "total_line",
    "total_selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Are hitter props outperforming pitcher props?

not_measurable sample=0

Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "Player stat projections are not stored as priced, selected, and settled prop predictions.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "prop_family",
    "prop_line",
    "selection",
    "odds",
    "settled_result"
  ]
}

Which sportsbooks produce better opportunities?

not_measurable sample=0

No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "not_measurable",
  "sample_size": 0,
  "reason": "No settled prediction was linked to a sportsbook snapshot.",
  "missing_fields": [
    "sportsbook",
    "selection_odds",
    "settled_profit"
  ],
  "books": []
}

Which confidence ranges underperform?

insufficient_sample sample=3

Range	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
[0.000, 0.525)	1	0	1	0.0
[0.525, 0.550)	1	1	0	1.0
[0.550, 0.600)	1	0	1	0.0
[0.600, 1.010)	0	0	0

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 3,
  "minimum_recommended_sample": 20,
  "worst_observed_range": {
    "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
    "sample_size": 1,
    "hits": 0,
    "misses": 1,
    "accuracy": 0.0
  },
  "ranges": [
    {
      "range": "[0.000, 0.525)",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.525, 0.550)",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": 1.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.550, 0.600)",
      "sample_size": 1,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 1,
      "accuracy": 0.0
    },
    {
      "range": "[0.600, 1.010)",
      "sample_size": 0,
      "hits": 0,
      "misses": 0,
      "accuracy": null
    }
  ]
}

Which monitored features are drifting?

insufficient_sample sample=3

Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.

Date	Sample Size	Mean Confidence	Mean Predicted Total	Accuracy
20260921	3	0.5362	9.0	0.3333

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 3,
  "minimum_baseline_sample": 30,
  "minimum_recent_sample": 20,
  "reason": "Three slates are descriptive only and cannot establish statistical feature drift.",
  "daily_monitors": [
    {
      "date": "20260921",
      "sample_size": 3,
      "mean_confidence": 0.5362,
      "mean_predicted_total": 9.0,
      "accuracy": 0.3333
    }
  ],
  "features_monitored": [
    "confidence",
    "predicted_total",
    "winner_accuracy"
  ]
}

Which model version introduced errors?

insufficient_sample sample=3

Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version.

Pipeline Version	Model Schema Version	Policy Version	Sample Size	Hits	Misses	Accuracy
enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	historical_game_temporal_v11	model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3	3	1	2	0.3333

Complete structured answer

{
  "status": "insufficient_sample",
  "sample_size": 3,
  "minimum_sample_per_version": 30,
  "versions": [
    {
      "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "sample_size": 3,
      "hits": 1,
      "misses": 2,
      "accuracy": 0.3333
    }
  ],
  "reason": "Version error claims require at least 30 settled predictions per version."
}

Game processing context

How each game moved from the historical model through confidence calibration, H2H and recent-form signals, score distribution and simulation policy. Postgame learning is added only after the official result settles.

20260921_MIN@SF

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickMIN

Published scoreMIN 5 - 4 SF

Final confidence56.8%

Calibrationraw 63.1% → blended 60.0%

Empirical signalhit rate 56.9% · weight 50.0% · n=640

H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge -0.162

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.697008600310184-4.342589000347224	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	5-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIN",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.135006,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.567503,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.432497,
    "away_win_probability": 0.567503
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.135006,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "MIN wins 5-4 (Extra Innings - 10)",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "MIN 5 - 4 SF",
    "confidence": 0.5675027500000001,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.630515,
    "sample_size": 640,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5687,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.599607,
    "published_confidence": 0.567503,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.2147,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.064,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.162
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019191595875746353
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.018531836702459465
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.018391945331383202
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.01823113140154843
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.017759676148271345
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06214005061778167,
      "1": 0.09304277076280003,
      "2": 0.12320288138163138,
      "3": 0.14427340860007837,
      "4": 0.1494097426997975,
      "5": 0.13683548656794986,
      "6": 0.11082704697637939,
      "7": 0.07938162404961936,
      "8": 0.05028302489101253,
      "9": 0.028167610678044283,
      "10": 0.013954228195863023,
      "11": 0.006113484702210527,
      "12": 0.002368639876831903
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04059814086402878,
      "1": 0.061675564606200786,
      "2": 0.0852980750493617,
      "3": 0.10739509230349525,
      "4": 0.1230973629901588,
      "5": 0.1284494272525935,
      "6": 0.12202103472046967,
      "7": 0.10552523875529597,
      "8": 0.08308011559972775,
      "9": 0.05954659731927168,
      "10": 0.03885401609014574,
      "11": 0.02307990359908874,
      "12": 0.012481051466503867,
      "13": 0.0061445129839214005,
      "14": 0.00275386639973633
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "MIN 5 - 4 SF",
      "winner": "MIN"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "MIN 5 - 4 SF",
      "winner": "MIN"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0529,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.064,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "MIN",
      "model_winner": "MIN",
      "simulation_winner": "MIN",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "MIN",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6,
        "draw_majority_team": "MIN",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
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          "1": 0.09261931261151446,
          "2": 0.12433345148168974,
          "3": 0.14672295746914826,
          "4": 0.1522060100279811,
          "5": 0.1387999075022841,
          "6": 0.1112679786108124,
          "7": 0.07841061611356245,
          "8": 0.04857392307319876,
          "9": 0.026451794578295443,
          "10": 0.01266282918128689,
          "11": 0.005328807129953164,
          "12": 0.0019713008148721537
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        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.03913241896971471,
          "1": 0.06067399059151591,
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          "3": 0.108548463691708,
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          "5": 0.13096763652536864,
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          "7": 0.10656718328778908,
          "8": 0.08292737736180678,
          "9": 0.05847930080435071,
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          "11": 0.021642132103259312,
          "12": 0.01135778583162655,
          "13": 0.005401533869019481,
          "14": 0.0023279322075853036
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.697008600310184,
      "home_runs": 4.342589000347224,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260921_TOR@BAL

Miss · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Miss

PickTOR

Published scoreTOR 5 - 4 BAL

Final confidence50.5%

Calibrationraw 46.0% → blended 50.1%

Empirical signalhit rate 54.2% · weight 50.0% · n=494

H2H base featurehome net -12.0 · absolute 12.0 · n=5

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.0907

Simulation variance2.15

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.296935863474703-4.058951650230981	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	5-4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	5-4	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	5-4	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	5-4	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	5-4	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "TOR",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "confidence": -0.010514,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.505257,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.494743,
    "away_win_probability": 0.505257
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": -0.010514,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "TOR wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 5,
    "home_runs": 4,
    "predicted_score_text": "TOR 5 - 4 BAL",
    "confidence": 0.50525691,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.4601,
    "sample_size": 494,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5425,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5013,
    "published_confidence": 0.505257,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -12.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 12.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.4,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0692,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0692,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.0513,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.164,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0907
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023186104004576623
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02298110514110332
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.022697040358130083
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.022496365528210147
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.020864985002180366
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06758079961779818,
      "1": 0.10081263462945908,
      "2": 0.13200640802179392,
      "3": 0.15172721046087204,
      "4": 0.15308066607196977,
      "5": 0.13557063291692284,
      "6": 0.10538997812176808,
      "7": 0.07191531971756727,
      "8": 0.043075658691504974,
      "9": 0.022648051777738595,
      "10": 0.010452451996744916,
      "11": 0.00423441992559661,
      "12": 0.0015057680502635177
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06499257178318453,
      "1": 0.09712410498284726,
      "2": 0.12785628589491918,
      "3": 0.1482684975218179,
      "4": 0.15146330754581278,
      "5": 0.1363005893400728,
      "6": 0.10804875782668034,
      "7": 0.07545248899948677,
      "8": 0.046415080765177,
      "9": 0.02515222432957516,
      "10": 0.012006749021345835,
      "11": 0.0050490098150539195,
      "12": 0.001870332174026513
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TOR 5 - 4 BAL",
      "winner": "TOR"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TOR 5 - 4 BAL",
      "winner": "TOR"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0531,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.046,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "TOR",
      "model_winner": "TOR",
      "simulation_winner": "TOR",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "TOR",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.4,
        "draw_majority_team": "BAL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0907,
      "winner": "TOR",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  },
  "decision_profile": {
    "method": "priced_decision_profile_v2",
    "winner": "TOR",
    "display_confidence": 0.5053,
    "internal_signal_score": 0.5328,
    "internal_signal_status": "ranking_signal_not_a_calibrated_fair_probability",
    "model_pick_probability": 0.5053,
    "confidence_compression_detected": false,
    "moneyline_fit": "unavailable_without_market_price",
    "betting_status": "price_required_before_betting_analysis",
    "margin_fit": "volatile_margin_profile",
    "totals_fit": "high_volatility_totals",
    "winner_accuracy_and_margin_accuracy_decoupled": true,
    "signals": {
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0907,
      "winner_recent_form_edge": -0.164,
      "winner_pitcher_matchup_edge": 0.0531,
      "winner_simulation_draw_rate": 0.4,
      "blowout_draw_rate_margin_4_plus": 0.4,
      "high_total_draw_rate_11_plus": 0.0,
      "low_total_draw_rate_6_or_less": 0.2,
      "total_runs_spread": {
        "min": 6,
        "median": 8,
        "max": 9,
        "range": 3
      }
    },
    "interpretation": "The internal signal is diagnostic, not a sportsbook fair price. A bet cannot be evaluated without a source-labelled market price; model/market disagreements are a pass until independently validated."
  },
  "pipeline_provenance": {
    "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
    "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
    "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
    "adaptive_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
      "created_at_utc": "2026-09-21T09:05:52.468019+00:00",
      "parameters": {
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        "confidence.light_sample_max": 30,
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        "recent.window_games": 10,
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        "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
        "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
        "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
        "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
        "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
        "season.standard_margin_scale": 0.42,
        "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
        "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
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        "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
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        "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
        "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
        "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
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        "player.hitter.v3.last_5_weight": 0.2,
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        "player.hitter.v3.season_weight": 0.6,
        "player.pitcher.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_6_10_weight": 0.2,
        "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
        "player.pitcher.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.25,
        "player.hitter.v4.last_5_weight": 0.15,
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        "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
        "player.hitter.v4.earlier_season_weight": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.n_estimators": 300,
        "training.xgb.max_depth": 2,
        "training.xgb.learning_rate": 0.025,
        "training.xgb.min_child_weight": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
        "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
        "training.xgb.colsample_bytree": 0.75,
        "training.xgb.subsample": 0.8,
        "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
        "context.opponent_strength_weight": 1.0,
        "context.savant_pitcher_quality_weight": 1.0,
        "context.venue_adjustment_weight": 0.0,
        "context.bvp_minimum_at_bats": 5.0,
        "context.bvp_multiplier_max": 1.75,
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        "context.bvp_prior_plate_appearances": 25.0,
        "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
        "context.hitter_rate_engine_weight": 1.0,
        "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
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        "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
        "context.lineup_pa_min": 2.6,
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        "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
        "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
        "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
        "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
        "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
        "context.starter_rate_multiplier_min": 0.7,
        "context.starter_rate_weight": 0.58,
        "context.winner_model_weight": 0.5
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    }
  },
  "adaptive_shadow_prediction": {
    "schema_version": "adaptive_shadow_prediction_v1",
    "status": "completed",
    "shadow_role": "rollback_monitor",
    "candidate_configuration": {
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      "parent_config_hash": "sha256:3d9930771042cec882c8a869e835917939fd7c764fe71a6d765dc4a636b90c8d"
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    "changes": [
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        "old_value": 2.05,
        "new_value": 2.15,
        "risk_tier": "low",
        "evaluation_mode": "artifact_replay"
      }
    ],
    "evaluation_modes": [
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    "publication_authority": "none",
    "pregame_proof": {
      "generated_at_utc": "2026-09-21T21:36:15.599966+00:00",
      "scheduled_first_pitch_utc": "2026-09-21T22:35:00+00:00",
      "verified_pregame": true,
      "proof_complete": true
    },
    "champion_reference": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.492724,
      "confidence": 0.507276,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "total_runs": 7
      },
      "method": "enhanced_ml_with_recent_performance",
      "pipeline_provenance": {
        "pipeline_version": "enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season",
        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "parent_config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
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          "parameters": {
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            "confidence.base_cap": 0.58,
            "confidence.close_gap": 1.25,
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            "confidence.moderate_gap": 2.5,
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            "confidence.floor": 0.505,
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            "score.variance_floor": 2.75,
            "recent.window_games": 10,
            "recent.maximum_weight": 0.35,
            "recent.run_differential_scale": 0.12,
            "recent.scoring_scale": 0.04,
            "season.win_percentage_scale": 1.5,
            "season.quality_action_threshold": 0.45,
            "season.large_edge_threshold": 1.5,
            "season.standard_margin_cap": 1.4,
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            "season.large_margin_cap": 4.0,
            "season.large_margin_scale": 1.6,
            "season.stronger_team_share": 0.55,
            "h2h.history_limit": 5,
            "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
            "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
            "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65,
            "simulation.allow_score": true,
            "player.model_weight": 0.5,
            "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35,
            "player.hitter_prior_pa": 30.0,
            "player.pitcher_prior_games": 5.0,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_5_weight": 0.45,
            "player.pitcher.v3.last_10_weight": 0.35,
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            "player.pitcher.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.4,
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            "player.hitter.v4.games_11_20_weight": 0.2,
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            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
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            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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            "context.bvp_weight": 0.2,
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            "context.lineup_context_max": 1.25,
            "context.lineup_context_min": 0.8,
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            "context.lineup_pa_max": 5.6,
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            "context.lineup_slot_pa_weight": 0.5,
            "context.park_prior_plate_appearances": 2000.0,
            "context.shrinkage_minimum_prior_pa": 200.0,
            "context.starter_experience_full_games": 12.0,
            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
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        }
      }
    },
    "candidate_prediction": {
      "predicted_winner": "away",
      "home_win_probability": 0.492549,
      "confidence": 0.507451,
      "predicted_score": {
        "home_runs": 4,
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      "pipeline_provenance": {
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        "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength",
        "model_schema_version": "historical_game_temporal_v11",
        "adaptive_configuration": {
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          "config_id": "candidate-f4c3ec3952acc919",
          "config_hash": "sha256:9ca63931a023e9b6f5e0ed6f872bef54d37bd4e9dc951e5e10b28553b15e3582",
          "parent_config_id": "candidate-57e651c7f36832cf",
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            "player.hitter.v3.last_10_weight": 0.2,
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            "training.xgb.reg_lambda": 8.0,
            "training.xgb.reg_alpha": 0.5,
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            "context.matchup_correction_weight": 0.0,
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            "context.starter_experience_min_factor": 0.35,
            "context.starter_prior_batters_faced": 150.0,
            "context.starter_rate_multiplier_max": 1.4,
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    "diagnostics": {
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        "calibration_sample_size": 494,
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        "starter_experience": {
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      },
      "h2h_base_feature": {
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        "home_net_margin": -12.0,
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        "home_run_delta": -0.0692,
        "away_run_delta": 0.0692,
        "evidence": [
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            "home_margin": -7.0
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      "season_run_differential_adjustment": {
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        "home": {
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          "run_differential_per_game": -0.1987179487179487,
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        "away": {
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          "games": 156,
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        "run_differential_edge_per_game": 0.0705,
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        "recent_quality_blend": {
          "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
          "recent_window": 10,
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        "margin_adjustment": 0.0,
        "reason": "season quality edge below action threshold"
      },
      "score_distribution": {
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      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.296935863474703,
      "home_runs": 4.058951650230981,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

20260921_WAS@DET

Hit · enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Hit

PickDET

Published scoreWAS 4 - 5 DET

Final confidence53.6%

Calibrationraw 61.5% → blended 59.3%

Empirical signalhit rate 57.1% · weight 50.0% · n=632

H2H base featureNot available for this matchup · n=0

Recent-form blendlast 10 · blended quality edge 0.2823

Simulation variance2.05

Simulation useorganic_simulation_realized_target

Score pipeline evolution

Stage	Away-Home	What changed
Historical Ml	4.27489751998788-4.493403197770399	Base ML historical model prediction
Variance Applied	4-4	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
Enhanced Prediction	4-5	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_has_no_reliable_baseline, projected_margin_is_one_run)
Embedded Savant Run Environment	4-5	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
Fundamental Edge Target Review	4-5	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
Capped Target	4-5	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
Simulation Result	4-5	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Complete non-empty processing evidence

{
  "prediction_method": "enhanced_ml_pitcher_opponent_strength",
  "published_prediction": {
    "winner": "DET",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "confidence": 0.071618,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "pick_probability": 0.535809,
    "confidence_definition": "home_win_probability - away_win_probability",
    "home_win_probability": 0.535809,
    "away_win_probability": 0.464191
  },
  "home_away_probability_edge": 0.071618,
  "simulation_prediction": {
    "winner": "DET wins 5-4",
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5
  },
  "pre_simulation_target": {
    "away_runs": 4,
    "home_runs": 5,
    "predicted_score_text": "WAS 4 - 5 DET",
    "confidence": 0.5358090975,
    "source": "enhanced_prediction_before_inning_simulation"
  },
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.614863,
    "sample_size": 632,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5712,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.593031,
    "published_confidence": 0.535809,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_form_quality": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.359,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.14,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.2823
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.017778142753951297
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.017492179378915416
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017343436766762553
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017064465685183036
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.016486560091907392
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03438032775754816,
      "1": 0.0534886425455253,
      "2": 0.07593016331054381,
      "3": 0.098348623408862,
      "4": 0.11623138981615555,
      "5": 0.12533713698445068,
      "6": 0.12332107539660893,
      "7": 0.11071234005962208,
      "8": 0.09068927942400415,
      "9": 0.06778241935131715,
      "10": 0.046225261289494175,
      "11": 0.028763575935247233,
      "12": 0.01633080427210783,
      "13": 0.008460060408091842,
      "14": 0.003998900040421264
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05013488082535613,
      "1": 0.07713604660213688,
      "2": 0.10590284121591835,
      "3": 0.12974501858338477,
      "4": 0.14184257899681285,
      "5": 0.13837428541960536,
      "6": 0.12045837740860073,
      "7": 0.09357319796426258,
      "8": 0.0648632613196429,
      "9": 0.04012166392462314,
      "10": 0.022145828684952296,
      "11": 0.010907815458949659,
      "12": 0.004794203595754079
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "WAS 4 - 5 DET",
      "winner": "DET"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "WAS 4 - 5 DET",
      "winner": "DET"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.14,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "DET",
      "model_winner": "DET",
      "simulation_winner": "DET",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "DET",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "DET",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
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      },
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          "12": 0.015014111619289259,
          "13": 0.0075199963102348935,
          "14": 0.003420549221329539
        },
        "away_distribution": {
          "0": 0.048475694360585644,
          "1": 0.07624953363395515,
          "2": 0.1064011724125612,
          "3": 0.1317199943784308,
          "4": 0.14466153267734624,
          "5": 0.1409452645687519,
          "6": 0.12182712200274927,
          "7": 0.09341864177824943,
          "8": 0.06355053064602306,
          "9": 0.03835313615748645,
          "10": 0.020534240852972462,
          "11": 0.009753320365468277,
          "12": 0.004109816165420041
        },
        "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
        "variance_multiplier": 1.95,
        "variance_floor": 2.75,
        "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
      }
    },
    "validity": {
      "prospective": true,
      "same_pregame_inputs": true,
      "rng_isolated": true,
      "evaluation_eligible": true,
      "reason": "paired enhanced-stage prediction is comparable after settlement"
    }
  },
  "score_evolution": [
    {
      "stage": "historical_ml",
      "away_runs": 4.27489751998788,
      "home_runs": 4.493403197770399,
      "description": "Base ML historical model prediction"
    },
    {
      "stage": "variance_applied",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "description": "Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "enhanced_prediction",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_has_no_reliable_baseline, projected_margin_is_one_run)"
    },
    {
      "stage": "embedded_savant_run_environment",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality"
    },
    {
      "stage": "fundamental_edge_target_review",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments"
    },
    {
      "stage": "capped_target",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Capped at max 12 realistic runs"
    },
    {
      "stage": "simulation_result",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "description": "Final inning-by-inning simulation result"
    }
  ]
}

Every reviewed game

Date	Game	Pick	Final confidence	Raw confidence	Empirical hit rate	Empirical weight	Pred A-H	Actual A-H	Result	Largest recorded movement	Pipeline	Roadmap signals
20260921	20260921_MIN@SF	MIN	56.8%	63.1%	56.9%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	2-5	miss	Variance Applied (0.6456)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.630515, "sample_size": 640, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5687, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.599607, "published_confidence": 0.567503, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": false, "sample_size": 0, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": 0.0 }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": -0.2147, "recent_quality_edge": -0.064, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": -0.162 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.019191595875746353 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.018531836702459465 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.018391945331383202 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 6, "probability": 0.01823113140154843 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.017759676148271345 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06214005061778167, "1": 0.09304277076280003, "2": 0.12320288138163138, "3": 0.14427340860007837, "4": 0.1494097426997975, "5": 0.13683548656794986, "6": 0.11082704697637939, "7": 0.07938162404961936, "8": 0.05028302489101253, "9": 0.028167610678044283, "10": 0.013954228195863023, "11": 0.006113484702210527, "12": 0.002368639876831903 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.04059814086402878, "1": 0.061675564606200786, "2": 0.0852980750493617, "3": 0.10739509230349525, "4": 0.1230973629901588, "5": 0.1284494272525935, "6": 0.12202103472046967, "7": 0.10552523875529597, "8": 0.08308011559972775, "9": 0.05954659731927168, "10": 0.03885401609014574, "11": 0.02307990359908874, "12": 0.012481051466503867, "13": 0.0061445129839214005, "14": 0.00275386639973633 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "MIN 5 - 4 SF", "winner": "MIN" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "MIN 5 - 4 SF", "winner": "MIN" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0529, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.064, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "MIN", "model_winner": "MIN", "simulation_winner": "MIN", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "MIN", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6, "draw_majority_team": "MIN", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.162, "winner": "MIN", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260921	20260921_TOR@BAL	TOR	50.5%	46.0%	54.2%	50.0%	5.0-4.0	3-4	miss	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.4601, "sample_size": 494, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5425, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.5013, "published_confidence": 0.505257, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": true, "sample_size": 5, "sample_weight": 0.0577, "home_net_margin": -12.0, "absolute_net_margin": 12.0, "home_average_margin": -2.4, "home_run_delta": -0.0692, "away_run_delta": 0.0692, "evidence": [ { "home_margin": -7.0 }, { "home_margin": -4.0 }, { "home_margin": 3.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 }, { "home_margin": -2.0 } ], "adaptive_parameters": { "h2h.history_limit": 5, "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15, "h2h.prior_games": 8.0, "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65 } }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.0513, "recent_quality_edge": 0.164, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.0907 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.023186104004576623 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.02298110514110332 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.022697040358130083 }, { "home_runs": 3, "away_runs": 3, "probability": 0.022496365528210147 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.020864985002180366 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.06758079961779818, "1": 0.10081263462945908, "2": 0.13200640802179392, "3": 0.15172721046087204, "4": 0.15308066607196977, "5": 0.13557063291692284, "6": 0.10538997812176808, "7": 0.07191531971756727, "8": 0.043075658691504974, "9": 0.022648051777738595, "10": 0.010452451996744916, "11": 0.00423441992559661, "12": 0.0015057680502635177 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.06499257178318453, "1": 0.09712410498284726, "2": 0.12785628589491918, "3": 0.1482684975218179, "4": 0.15146330754581278, "5": 0.1363005893400728, "6": 0.10804875782668034, "7": 0.07545248899948677, "8": 0.046415080765177, "9": 0.02515222432957516, "10": 0.012006749021345835, "11": 0.0050490098150539195, "12": 0.001870332174026513 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.15, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TOR 5 - 4 BAL", "winner": "TOR" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "score_text": "TOR 5 - 4 BAL", "winner": "TOR" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0531, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.046, "winner_direction": "away", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "winner": "TOR", "model_winner": "TOR", "simulation_winner": "TOR", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 5, "published_winner": "TOR", "published_winner_draw_share": 0.4, "draw_majority_team": "BAL", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": -0.0907, "winner": "TOR", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 5, "home_runs": 4, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }
20260921	20260921_WAS@DET	DET	53.6%	61.5%	57.1%	50.0%	4.0-5.0	2-9	hit	Enhanced Prediction (1.0)	enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season	Signals { "confidence_calibration": { "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1", "applied": true, "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate", "raw_confidence": 0.614863, "sample_size": 632, "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5712, "empirical_weight": 0.5, "blended_confidence": 0.593031, "published_confidence": 0.535809, "published_after_governors": true, "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp" }, "h2h_base_feature": { "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1", "available": false, "sample_size": 0, "home_net_margin": 0.0, "home_average_margin": 0.0, "home_run_delta": 0.0, "away_run_delta": 0.0 }, "recent_quality_blend": { "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive", "recent_window": 10, "season_quality_edge": 0.359, "recent_quality_edge": 0.14, "season_weight": 0.65, "recent_weight": 0.35, "recent_reliability": 1.0, "alignment": "aligned", "blended_quality_edge": 0.2823 }, "score_distribution": { "most_likely": [ { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.017778142753951297 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.017492179378915416 }, { "home_runs": 5, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017343436766762553 }, { "home_runs": 6, "away_runs": 5, "probability": 0.017064465685183036 }, { "home_runs": 4, "away_runs": 4, "probability": 0.016486560091907392 } ], "home_distribution": { "0": 0.03438032775754816, "1": 0.0534886425455253, "2": 0.07593016331054381, "3": 0.098348623408862, "4": 0.11623138981615555, "5": 0.12533713698445068, "6": 0.12332107539660893, "7": 0.11071234005962208, "8": 0.09068927942400415, "9": 0.06778241935131715, "10": 0.046225261289494175, "11": 0.028763575935247233, "12": 0.01633080427210783, "13": 0.008460060408091842, "14": 0.003998900040421264 }, "away_distribution": { "0": 0.05013488082535613, "1": 0.07713604660213688, "2": 0.10590284121591835, "3": 0.12974501858338477, "4": 0.14184257899681285, "5": 0.13837428541960536, "6": 0.12045837740860073, "7": 0.09357319796426258, "8": 0.0648632613196429, "9": 0.04012166392462314, "10": 0.022145828684952296, "11": 0.010907815458949659, "12": 0.004794203595754079 }, "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution", "variance_multiplier": 2.05, "variance_floor": 2.75, "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x" }, "simulation_reconciliation": { "pre_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "WAS 4 - 5 DET", "winner": "DET" }, "final_simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "score_text": "WAS 4 - 5 DET", "winner": "DET" }, "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false, "simulation_would_flip_winner": false, "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false, "sim_flip_trusted": false, "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported", "independent_margin_support": false, "independent_margin_support_evidence": { "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0, "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.14, "winner_direction": "home", "thresholds": { "pitcher_matchup": 0.35, "recent_form": 0.75 } }, "margin_widening_capped": false, "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "away_run_delta": 0, "home_run_delta": 0, "total_run_delta": 0, "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy", "final_decision_policy": { "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3", "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "winner": "DET", "model_winner": "DET", "simulation_winner": "DET", "simulation_winner_agrees": true, "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only", "simulation_distribution_agreement": { "available": true, "draw_count": 2, "published_winner": "DET", "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0, "draw_majority_team": "DET", "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true, "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection", "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false, "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed." }, "simulation_score_enabled": true, "independent_margin_support": false, "margin_widening_capped": false, "model_margin": 1, "simulation_margin": 1, "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target", "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target", "simulation_realized_target": true, "model_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 }, "simulation_score": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5 } }, "final_margin_quality_review": { "review_required": false, "pre_margin": 1, "final_margin": 1, "winner_quality_edge": 0.2823, "winner": "DET", "score_reviewed": { "away_runs": 4, "home_runs": 5, "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target" }, "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold" } } }

Date

Game

Pick

Final confidence

Raw confidence

Empirical hit rate

Empirical weight

Pred A-H

Actual A-H

Result

Largest recorded movement

Pipeline

Roadmap signals

20260921

20260921_MIN@SF

MIN

56.8%

63.1%

56.9%

50.0%

5.0-4.0

2-5

miss

Variance Applied (0.6456)

enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Signals

{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.630515,
    "sample_size": 640,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5687,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.599607,
    "published_confidence": 0.567503,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": -0.2147,
    "recent_quality_edge": -0.064,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": -0.162
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.019191595875746353
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.018531836702459465
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.018391945331383202
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 6,
        "probability": 0.01823113140154843
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.017759676148271345
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06214005061778167,
      "1": 0.09304277076280003,
      "2": 0.12320288138163138,
      "3": 0.14427340860007837,
      "4": 0.1494097426997975,
      "5": 0.13683548656794986,
      "6": 0.11082704697637939,
      "7": 0.07938162404961936,
      "8": 0.05028302489101253,
      "9": 0.028167610678044283,
      "10": 0.013954228195863023,
      "11": 0.006113484702210527,
      "12": 0.002368639876831903
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.04059814086402878,
      "1": 0.061675564606200786,
      "2": 0.0852980750493617,
      "3": 0.10739509230349525,
      "4": 0.1230973629901588,
      "5": 0.1284494272525935,
      "6": 0.12202103472046967,
      "7": 0.10552523875529597,
      "8": 0.08308011559972775,
      "9": 0.05954659731927168,
      "10": 0.03885401609014574,
      "11": 0.02307990359908874,
      "12": 0.012481051466503867,
      "13": 0.0061445129839214005,
      "14": 0.00275386639973633
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "MIN 5 - 4 SF",
      "winner": "MIN"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "MIN 5 - 4 SF",
      "winner": "MIN"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0529,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.064,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "MIN",
      "model_winner": "MIN",
      "simulation_winner": "MIN",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "MIN",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.6,
        "draw_majority_team": "MIN",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.162,
      "winner": "MIN",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}

20260921

20260921_TOR@BAL

TOR

50.5%

46.0%

54.2%

50.0%

5.0-4.0

3-4

miss

Enhanced Prediction (1.0)

enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Signals

{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.4601,
    "sample_size": 494,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5425,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.5013,
    "published_confidence": 0.505257,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": true,
    "sample_size": 5,
    "sample_weight": 0.0577,
    "home_net_margin": -12.0,
    "absolute_net_margin": 12.0,
    "home_average_margin": -2.4,
    "home_run_delta": -0.0692,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0692,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "home_margin": -7.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -4.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": 3.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      },
      {
        "home_margin": -2.0
      }
    ],
    "adaptive_parameters": {
      "h2h.history_limit": 5,
      "h2h.maximum_weight": 0.15,
      "h2h.prior_games": 8.0,
      "h2h.maximum_total_shift": 0.65
    }
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.0513,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.164,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.0907
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.023186104004576623
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.02298110514110332
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.022697040358130083
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 3,
        "away_runs": 3,
        "probability": 0.022496365528210147
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.020864985002180366
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06758079961779818,
      "1": 0.10081263462945908,
      "2": 0.13200640802179392,
      "3": 0.15172721046087204,
      "4": 0.15308066607196977,
      "5": 0.13557063291692284,
      "6": 0.10538997812176808,
      "7": 0.07191531971756727,
      "8": 0.043075658691504974,
      "9": 0.022648051777738595,
      "10": 0.010452451996744916,
      "11": 0.00423441992559661,
      "12": 0.0015057680502635177
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.06499257178318453,
      "1": 0.09712410498284726,
      "2": 0.12785628589491918,
      "3": 0.1482684975218179,
      "4": 0.15146330754581278,
      "5": 0.1363005893400728,
      "6": 0.10804875782668034,
      "7": 0.07545248899948677,
      "8": 0.046415080765177,
      "9": 0.02515222432957516,
      "10": 0.012006749021345835,
      "11": 0.0050490098150539195,
      "12": 0.001870332174026513
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.15,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TOR 5 - 4 BAL",
      "winner": "TOR"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "score_text": "TOR 5 - 4 BAL",
      "winner": "TOR"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": -0.0531,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": -0.046,
      "winner_direction": "away",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 5,
      "home_runs": 4,
      "winner": "TOR",
      "model_winner": "TOR",
      "simulation_winner": "TOR",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 5,
        "published_winner": "TOR",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 0.4,
        "draw_majority_team": "BAL",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": false,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": -0.0907,
      "winner": "TOR",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 5,
        "home_runs": 4,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}

20260921

20260921_WAS@DET

DET

53.6%

61.5%

57.1%

50.0%

4.0-5.0

2-9

hit

Enhanced Prediction (1.0)

enhanced_game_prediction_v4_continuous_learning__player_form_v3_5_10_season

Signals

{
  "confidence_calibration": {
    "method": "empirical_hit_rate_weighted_v1",
    "applied": true,
    "reason": "raw confidence blended with verified historical bucket hit rate",
    "raw_confidence": 0.614863,
    "sample_size": 632,
    "empirical_hit_rate": 0.5712,
    "empirical_weight": 0.5,
    "blended_confidence": 0.593031,
    "published_confidence": 0.535809,
    "published_after_governors": true,
    "governor_mode": "shrinkage_not_clamp"
  },
  "h2h_base_feature": {
    "method": "h2h_net_margin_monotonic_v1",
    "available": false,
    "sample_size": 0,
    "home_net_margin": 0.0,
    "home_average_margin": 0.0,
    "home_run_delta": 0.0,
    "away_run_delta": 0.0
  },
  "recent_quality_blend": {
    "method": "season_recent_quality_blend_v2_adaptive",
    "recent_window": 10,
    "season_quality_edge": 0.359,
    "recent_quality_edge": 0.14,
    "season_weight": 0.65,
    "recent_weight": 0.35,
    "recent_reliability": 1.0,
    "alignment": "aligned",
    "blended_quality_edge": 0.2823
  },
  "score_distribution": {
    "most_likely": [
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.017778142753951297
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.017492179378915416
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 5,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017343436766762553
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 6,
        "away_runs": 5,
        "probability": 0.017064465685183036
      },
      {
        "home_runs": 4,
        "away_runs": 4,
        "probability": 0.016486560091907392
      }
    ],
    "home_distribution": {
      "0": 0.03438032775754816,
      "1": 0.0534886425455253,
      "2": 0.07593016331054381,
      "3": 0.098348623408862,
      "4": 0.11623138981615555,
      "5": 0.12533713698445068,
      "6": 0.12332107539660893,
      "7": 0.11071234005962208,
      "8": 0.09068927942400415,
      "9": 0.06778241935131715,
      "10": 0.046225261289494175,
      "11": 0.028763575935247233,
      "12": 0.01633080427210783,
      "13": 0.008460060408091842,
      "14": 0.003998900040421264
    },
    "away_distribution": {
      "0": 0.05013488082535613,
      "1": 0.07713604660213688,
      "2": 0.10590284121591835,
      "3": 0.12974501858338477,
      "4": 0.14184257899681285,
      "5": 0.13837428541960536,
      "6": 0.12045837740860073,
      "7": 0.09357319796426258,
      "8": 0.0648632613196429,
      "9": 0.04012166392462314,
      "10": 0.022145828684952296,
      "11": 0.010907815458949659,
      "12": 0.004794203595754079
    },
    "model": "overdispersed_score_distribution",
    "variance_multiplier": 2.05,
    "variance_floor": 2.75,
    "roadmap_status": "implemented_above_requested_1.4x"
  },
  "simulation_reconciliation": {
    "pre_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "WAS 4 - 5 DET",
      "winner": "DET"
    },
    "final_simulation_score": {
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "score_text": "WAS 4 - 5 DET",
      "winner": "DET"
    },
    "winner_flipped_by_simulation": false,
    "simulation_would_flip_winner": false,
    "sim_flipped_pre_winner": false,
    "sim_flip_trusted": false,
    "sim_flip_policy": "diagnostic_only_unless_independently_supported",
    "independent_margin_support": false,
    "independent_margin_support_evidence": {
      "pitcher_matchup_edge_home_minus_away": 0.0,
      "recent_form_edge_home_minus_away": 0.14,
      "winner_direction": "home",
      "thresholds": {
        "pitcher_matchup": 0.35,
        "recent_form": 0.75
      }
    },
    "margin_widening_capped": false,
    "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
    "away_run_delta": 0,
    "home_run_delta": 0,
    "total_run_delta": 0,
    "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
    "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
    "final_prediction_source": "stable_final_prediction_policy",
    "final_decision_policy": {
      "policy_version": "model_target_authoritative_simulation_realizes_v3",
      "away_runs": 4,
      "home_runs": 5,
      "winner": "DET",
      "model_winner": "DET",
      "simulation_winner": "DET",
      "simulation_winner_agrees": true,
      "simulation_agreement_scope": "selected_draw_only",
      "simulation_distribution_agreement": {
        "available": true,
        "draw_count": 2,
        "published_winner": "DET",
        "published_winner_draw_share": 1.0,
        "draw_majority_team": "DET",
        "published_winner_is_draw_majority": true,
        "sampling": "target_conditioned_selection",
        "is_unbiased_probability_sample": false,
        "note": "Draw shares are target-conditioned and diagnostic. A published winner holding a minority share is recorded, not suppressed."
      },
      "simulation_score_enabled": true,
      "independent_margin_support": false,
      "margin_widening_capped": false,
      "model_margin": 1,
      "simulation_margin": 1,
      "simulation_usage": "organic_simulation_realized_target",
      "score_source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target",
      "simulation_realized_target": true,
      "model_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      },
      "simulation_score": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5
      }
    },
    "final_margin_quality_review": {
      "review_required": false,
      "pre_margin": 1,
      "final_margin": 1,
      "winner_quality_edge": 0.2823,
      "winner": "DET",
      "score_reviewed": {
        "away_runs": 4,
        "home_runs": 5,
        "source": "enhanced_prediction.pre_simulation_target"
      },
      "reason": "published margin is directionally supported or within review threshold"
    }
  }
}

Starting-pitcher component quality

H	{ "mae": 3.0, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.6667 }
R	{ "mae": 2.1667, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.1667 }
ER	{ "mae": 2.1667, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": -0.1667 }
BB	{ "mae": 1.1667, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.1667 }
SO	{ "mae": 1.6667, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.6667 }
HR	{ "mae": 0.6667, "bias_predicted_minus_actual": 0.0 }
IP_outs	{ "mae_outs": 5.3333, "mae_innings": 1.7778, "bias_outs": 0.3333 }

IP error is measured in outs. No single-outing ERA is used; ER and workload are compared directly.

Date

Game

Side

Pred starter

Actual starter

Match

Pred IP

Actual IP

Δ outs

Pred ER

Actual ER

Δ ER

H P/A

BB P/A

SO P/A

All context

20260921

20260921_MIN@SF

away

Zebby Matthews

True

5.2

5.0

-2

2/8

0/0

7/9

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.73936170212766,
      "WHIP": 1.2446808510638299,
      "IP": 125.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 22,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.697,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.733,
      "last_start_IP": 6.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.293,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0249,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9754,
      "walk_factor": 0.968,
      "homer_factor": 1.0997,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 20.5,
      "bb_percent": 7.5,
      "woba": 0.325,
      "xwoba": 0.324,
      "barrel_percent": 10.8,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.2,
      "whiff_percent": 22.2
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 160,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 22.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.8148,
        "prior_weight": 0.1852
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "805673",
      "report_date": "20260921",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 22,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 28.2,
            "ER": 11.0,
            "R": 11.0,
            "H": 19.0,
            "BB": 8.0,
            "SO": 26.0,
            "HR": 4.0,
            "BF": 112.0,
            "Pitches": 447.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.2,
            "R": 2.2,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 1.6,
            "SO": 5.2,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.4,
            "Pitches": 89.4
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.4535,
            "WHIP": 0.9419,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.38372,
            "H_per_IP": 0.66279,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.27907,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.90698,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13953
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 55.1,
            "ER": 24.0,
            "R": 27.0,
            "H": 44.0,
            "BB": 18.0,
            "SO": 49.0,
            "HR": 8.0,
            "BF": 225.0,
            "Pitches": 907.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 2.4,
            "R": 2.7,
            "H": 4.4,
            "BB": 1.8,
            "SO": 4.9,
            "HR": 0.8,
            "BF": 22.5,
            "Pitches": 90.7
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 3.9036,
            "WHIP": 1.1205,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.43373,
            "H_per_IP": 0.79518,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.3253,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.88554,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.14458
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 22,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 125.1,
            "ER": 66.0,
            "R": 71.0,
            "H": 117.0,
            "BB": 39.0,
            "SO": 107.0,
            "HR": 23.0,
            "BF": 522.0,
            "Pitches": 2017.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.2,
            "ER": 3.0,
            "R": 3.2273,
            "H": 5.3182,
            "BB": 1.7727,
            "SO": 4.8636,
            "HR": 1.0455,
            "BF": 23.7273,
            "Pitches": 91.6818
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7394,
            "WHIP": 1.2447,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.5266,
            "H_per_IP": 0.93351,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.31117,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.85372,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18351
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        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
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    "model_form_blend_trace": {
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      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
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      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
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      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 22.0,
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        "prior_size": 5.0,
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 4.553,
          "final": 3.4597,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
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          "form": 1.788,
          "final": 1.0223,
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        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 7.0,
          "form": 5.087,
          "final": 5.9062,
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        },
        "predicted_HR": {
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.0012,
          "final": 4.0012,
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        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.119,
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          "source": "form_only"
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      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
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        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 55.1,
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        "H": 44,
        "BB": 18,
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        "ERA": 3.903614457831325,
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        "K9": 7.969879518072289,
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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        "dominant_form": false,
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      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 0,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-16T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 0.9309028364921675,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.666666666666667,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 2.0,
          "predicted_BB": 0.0,
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        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 22.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.8148,
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      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "805673",
      "player_name": "Zebby Matthews",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "MIN",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 2.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 0.0,
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          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 0.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 2.0,
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              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
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            {
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              "before": 5.6667,
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              "delta": -0.4667,
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            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 7.0,
              "after": 7.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
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              "projection_effect": "neutral",
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          ],
          "summary": {
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              "before": 5.6667,
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          },
          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 2.0,
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            "delta": 0.0,
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          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
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            "percent_delta": null,
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          },
          {
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            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 7.0,
            "after": 7.0,
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            "projection_effect": "neutral",
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        ],
        "summary": {
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            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 83,
        "win_pct": 0.4679,
        "runs_scored": 712.0,
        "runs_allowed": 776.0,
        "run_differential": -64.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4103,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5641,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9744,
        "offense_index": 1.0136,
        "defense_index": 0.9052,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": -11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1124
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 92,
        "win_pct": 0.4103,
        "runs_scored": 656.0,
        "runs_allowed": 740.0,
        "run_differential": -84.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5385,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2051,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7436,
        "offense_index": 0.9339,
        "defense_index": 0.9492,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
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          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7,
          "run_differential": -11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.212
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0996,
        "offense_edge": 0.0136,
        "opponent_offense_edge": -0.0661,
        "defense_strength": -0.0948,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0508,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0038,
        "run_prevention": 0.9939,
        "strikeout": 1.0083
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "805673",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "805673",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 499.0,
            "k_percent": 20.5,
            "bb_percent": 7.5,
            "woba": 0.325,
            "xwoba": 0.324,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 34.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.8,
            "hard_hit_percent": 42.2,
            "avg_best_speed": 80.9334,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.7522,
            "whiff_percent": 22.2,
            "swing_percent": 47.6
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.4567,
            "command_and_miss": -0.1564,
            "regression_edge": 0.0286,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.3714,
            "barrel_edge": -0.8,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.6143,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4,
            "bb_edge": 0.4,
            "pitch_design_score": 0.0069
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "805673",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 88,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 88,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.97441694218836,
              "release_spin_rate": 2239.16671925691,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 88,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.97441694218836,
                "release_spin_rate": 2239.16671925691,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.9744,
              "release_spin_rate": 2239.1667,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
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              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": 0.0069,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": 0.0492,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.293,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0249,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9754,
          "walk_factor": 0.968,
          "homer_factor": 1.0997,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": 0.001,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "805673",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.0249,
            "adjusted": 2
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0249,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.968,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0997,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 0.9754,
            "adjusted": 5
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 2,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 0,
      "predicted_SO": 7,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 19,
      "Pitches": 85,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 4",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +4; this is the primary run-prevention error."
    },
    {
      "code": "HIT_COMPONENT_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Hits missed by 6",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted hits was +6."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260921_MIN@SF.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260921

20260921_MIN@SF

home

Blade Tidwell

True

5.1

3.1

-6

-2

6/3

2/0

5/4

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 4.5562499999999995,
      "WHIP": 1.2,
      "IP": 53.1,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 16,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.167,
      "recent_avg_IP": 5.267,
      "last_start_IP": 6.2,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": -0.1935,
      "sample_weight": 0.788,
      "run_prevention_factor": 1.0164,
      "strikeout_factor": 0.9775,
      "walk_factor": 1.0063,
      "homer_factor": 1.0588,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 18.9,
      "bb_percent": 9.5,
      "woba": 0.305,
      "xwoba": 0.325,
      "barrel_percent": 10.5,
      "hard_hit_percent": 38.6,
      "whiff_percent": 23.1
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 354,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7619,
        "prior_weight": 0.2381
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "694918",
      "report_date": "20260921",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 16,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.333,
      "windows": {
        "last_5": {
          "games": 5,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 26.1,
            "ER": 14.0,
            "R": 15.0,
            "H": 20.0,
            "BB": 11.0,
            "SO": 22.0,
            "HR": 5.0,
            "BF": 112.0,
            "Pitches": 461.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 5.1,
            "ER": 2.8,
            "R": 3.0,
            "H": 4.0,
            "BB": 2.2,
            "SO": 4.4,
            "HR": 1.0,
            "BF": 22.4,
            "Pitches": 92.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.7848,
            "WHIP": 1.1772,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.53165,
            "H_per_IP": 0.75949,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.41772,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.83544,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.18987
          }
        },
        "last_10": {
          "games": 10,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 45.1,
            "ER": 25.0,
            "R": 26.0,
            "H": 38.0,
            "BB": 20.0,
            "SO": 36.0,
            "HR": 6.0,
            "BF": 194.0,
            "Pitches": 792.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 4.2,
            "ER": 2.5,
            "R": 2.6,
            "H": 3.8,
            "BB": 2.0,
            "SO": 3.6,
            "HR": 0.6,
            "BF": 19.4,
            "Pitches": 79.2
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.9632,
            "WHIP": 1.2794,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.55147,
            "H_per_IP": 0.83824,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.44118,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.79412,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13235
          }
        },
        "season": {
          "games": 16,
          "totals": {
            "IP": 53.1,
            "ER": 27.0,
            "R": 28.0,
            "H": 43.0,
            "BB": 21.0,
            "SO": 42.0,
            "HR": 7.0,
            "BF": 222.0,
            "Pitches": 902.0
          },
          "per_game": {
            "IP": 3.1,
            "ER": 1.6875,
            "R": 1.75,
            "H": 2.6875,
            "BB": 1.3125,
            "SO": 2.625,
            "HR": 0.4375,
            "BF": 13.875,
            "Pitches": 56.375
          },
          "rates": {
            "ERA": 4.5562,
            "WHIP": 1.2,
            "ER_per_IP": 0.50625,
            "H_per_IP": 0.80625,
            "BB_per_IP": 0.39375,
            "SO_per_IP": 0.7875,
            "HR_per_IP": 0.13125
          }
        }
      },
      "blend_segments": {},
      "weighted_prediction": {
        "predicted_IP": 5.0,
        "predicted_ER": 2.56,
        "predicted_H": 4.075,
        "predicted_BB": 1.991,
        "predicted_SO": 4.081,
        "predicted_HR": 0.756,
        "predicted_ERA": 4.7502,
        "predicted_WHIP": 1.2506
      }
    },
    "model_form_blend_trace": {
      "requested_model_weight": 0.35,
      "requested_form_weight": 0.65,
      "model_weight": 0.4506,
      "form_weight": 0.5494,
      "form_reliability": 0.7619,
      "adaptive_parameters": {
        "player.model_weight": 0.5,
        "player.form_reliability_floor": 0.35
      },
      "form_shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 16.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7619,
        "prior_weight": 0.2381
      },
      "applied_metrics": {
        "predicted_IP": {
          "model": 5.1,
          "form": 5.0,
          "final": 5.2,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 3.0,
          "form": 2.56,
          "final": 2.7583,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 6.0,
          "form": 4.075,
          "final": 4.9424,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 1.991,
          "final": 1.9951,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 4.081,
          "final": 4.4951,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.756,
          "final": 1.3165,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.7502,
          "final": 4.7502,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.2506,
          "final": 1.2506,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
      "hitting": {
        "AB": 0,
        "H": 0,
        "HR": 0,
        "RBI": 0,
        "R": 0,
        "BB": 0,
        "SO": 0,
        "2B": 0,
        "3B": 0,
        "AVG": 0,
        "OBP": 0,
        "SLG": 0,
        "OPS": 0,
        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
        "cold_streak": true,
        "trend": "stable"
      },
      "pitching": {
        "IP": 45.1,
        "ER": 25,
        "H": 38,
        "BB": 20,
        "SO": 36,
        "HR": 6,
        "ERA": 4.963235294117647,
        "WHIP": 1.2794117647058822,
        "K9": 7.147058823529411,
        "HR9": 1.1911764705882353,
        "games_pitched": 10,
        "quality_starts": 1,
        "dominant_form": false,
        "struggling_form": false
      },
      "fielding": {
        "errors": 1,
        "assists": 0,
        "games_fielded": 10,
        "error_prone": false
      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-15T00:00:00"
    },
    "recent_form_boost": 1.0540834264992547,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 5.333333333333333,
          "predicted_ER": 3.0,
          "predicted_H": 6.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 2.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 16.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.7619,
          "prior_weight": 0.2381
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "694918",
      "player_name": "Blade Tidwell",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "SF",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.3333,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 3.0,
            "predicted_H": 6.0,
            "predicted_HR": 2.0,
            "predicted_IP": 5.1,
            "predicted_R": 3.0,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 3.0,
              "after": 3.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 6.0,
              "after": 6.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 1,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 5.3333,
              "after": 5.1,
              "delta": -0.2333,
              "percent_delta": -0.0438,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 3.0,
            "after": 3.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 6.0,
            "after": 6.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 1,
          "boosted_metrics": 0,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 0,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": null,
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 5.3333,
            "after": 5.1,
            "delta": -0.2333,
            "percent_delta": -0.0437,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "SF",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 64,
        "losses": 92,
        "win_pct": 0.4103,
        "runs_scored": 656.0,
        "runs_allowed": 740.0,
        "run_differential": -84.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.5385,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.2051,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.7436,
        "offense_index": 0.9339,
        "defense_index": 0.9492,
        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 3,
          "losses": 7,
          "win_pct": 0.3,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 5.7,
          "run_differential": -11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.212
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "MIN",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 83,
        "win_pct": 0.4679,
        "runs_scored": 712.0,
        "runs_allowed": 776.0,
        "run_differential": -64.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.4103,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.5641,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.9744,
        "offense_index": 1.0136,
        "defense_index": 0.9052,
        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 4,
          "losses": 6,
          "win_pct": 0.4,
          "avg_runs_scored": 3.7,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.8,
          "run_differential": -11.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.1124
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": -0.0996,
        "offense_edge": -0.0661,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.0136,
        "defense_strength": -0.0508,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.0948,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9939,
        "run_prevention": 1.0122,
        "strikeout": 0.9959
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "694918",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "694918",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 197.0,
            "k_percent": 18.9,
            "bb_percent": 9.5,
            "woba": 0.305,
            "xwoba": 0.325,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 30.1,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 10.5,
            "hard_hit_percent": 38.6,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.2772,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.0983,
            "whiff_percent": 23.1,
            "swing_percent": 44.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
            "k_percent": 22.0,
            "bb_percent": 9.1,
            "woba": 0.316,
            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
            "hard_hit_percent": 37.9,
            "avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
            "avg_hyper_speed": 93.8957,
            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
            "swing_percent": 47.4
          },
          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.1876,
            "command_and_miss": -0.3143,
            "regression_edge": -0.5714,
            "xwoba_edge": -0.4,
            "barrel_edge": -0.7333,
            "hard_hit_edge": -0.1,
            "whiff_edge": -0.2714,
            "bb_edge": -0.1,
            "pitch_design_score": -0.0201
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "694918",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 86,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 86,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.4928593467488,
              "release_spin_rate": 2451.7297481784312,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
              "release_pos_z": null,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
                "pitch_name": null,
                "pitches": 86,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.4928593467488,
                "release_spin_rate": 2451.7297481784312,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
                "release_pos_z": null,
                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
              }
            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.4929,
              "release_spin_rate": 2451.7297,
              "spin_axis": 0.0,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
              "release_pos_x": 0.0,
              "release_pos_z": 0.0,
              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
              "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
            },
            "components": {
              "movement_score": -0.0201,
              "horizontal_break_edge": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
              "extension_edge": 0.0,
              "velocity_edge": -0.1435,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1935,
          "sample_weight": 0.788,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0164,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9775,
          "walk_factor": 1.0063,
          "homer_factor": 1.0588,
          "woba_minus_xwoba": -0.02,
          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "694918",
            "espn_rank": null
          }
        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0129,
            "adjusted": 3
          },
          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 1.0129,
            "adjusted": 4
          },
          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 1.005,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0463,
            "adjusted": 1
          },
          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9823,
            "adjusted": 4
          }
        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.1,
      "predicted_H": 6,
      "predicted_R": 3,
      "predicted_ER": 3,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 5,
      "predicted_HR": 2,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 24,
      "Pitches": 105,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -6 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260921_MIN@SF.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260921

20260921_TOR@BAL

away

Trey Yesavage

True

5.0

2.0

-9

-2

4/1

1/0

4/3

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
    "embedded_season": {
      "ERA": 3.6512455516014235,
      "WHIP": 1.1423487544483986,
      "IP": 93.2,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 18,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.204,
      "recent_avg_IP": 4.067,
      "last_start_IP": 2.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
      "quality_score": 0.3159,
      "sample_weight": 1.0,
      "run_prevention_factor": 0.9731,
      "strikeout_factor": 1.0377,
      "walk_factor": 1.056,
      "homer_factor": 0.9359,
      "regression_flag": "neutral",
      "k_percent": 23.6,
      "bb_percent": 11.9,
      "woba": 0.28,
      "xwoba": 0.285,
      "barrel_percent": 6.1,
      "hard_hit_percent": 34.0,
      "whiff_percent": 30.0
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 87,
      "total_ranked": null,
      "metrics": null
    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
      "method": "weighted_recent_form",
      "description": "Legacy 5/10/season recent form with Bayesian league-prior shrinkage",
      "weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "effective_weights": {
        "last_5": 0.45,
        "last_10": 0.35,
        "season": 0.2
      },
      "shrinkage": {
        "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
        "sample_size": 18.0,
        "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
        "prior_size": 5.0,
        "data_weight": 0.7826,
        "prior_weight": 0.2174
      },
      "role": "pitcher",
      "pitcher_usage_role": "starter",
      "player_id": "702056",
      "report_date": "20260921",
      "season_year": 2026,
      "rows_used": 18,
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        },
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        "prior_size": 5.0,
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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.3949,
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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          "form": 1.2648,
          "final": 1.2648,
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    },
    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "games_played": 0,
        "hot_streak": false,
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        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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        "HR": 8,
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        "games_pitched": 10,
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      },
      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      },
      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-08-04T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.9482929853227842,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
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        "form_shrinkage": {
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          "sample_size": 18.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
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    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
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      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "702056",
      "player_name": "Trey Yesavage",
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      "team": "TOR",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [],
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          "weights": {},
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        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
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          "changed_metrics": [
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              "metric": "predicted_BB",
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            {
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          ],
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          "weights": {},
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
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          {
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          },
          {
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          {
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          {
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          {
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        ],
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      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "TOR",
        "games": 156,
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        "losses": 79,
        "win_pct": 0.4936,
        "runs_scored": 629.0,
        "runs_allowed": 671.0,
        "run_differential": -42.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2692,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.0321,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3013,
        "offense_index": 0.8957,
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        "current_streak": "W1",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
        "team": "BAL",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4808,
        "runs_scored": 693.0,
        "runs_allowed": 724.0,
        "run_differential": -31.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1987,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4423,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.641,
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        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0406
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      "edges": {
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": -0.1
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      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0006,
        "run_prevention": 0.9949,
        "strikeout": 1.0001
      },
      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "702056",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "702056",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 356.0,
            "k_percent": 23.6,
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            "woba": 0.28,
            "xwoba": 0.285,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 36.4,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.1,
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            "avg_best_speed": 78.1032,
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            "whiff_percent": 30.0,
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          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
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            "xwoba": 0.311,
            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 7.2,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
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          "components": {
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            "regression_edge": -0.1429,
            "xwoba_edge": 0.7429,
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            "hard_hit_edge": 0.5571,
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            "pitch_design_score": -0.0299
          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "702056",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 88,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 88,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 89.31756719718713,
              "release_spin_rate": 2004.5012215502159,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
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                "pitches": 88,
                "pitch_usage": 0.0,
                "release_speed": 89.31756719718713,
                "release_spin_rate": 2004.5012215502159,
                "spin_axis": null,
                "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
                "release_pos_x": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 89.3176,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": 0.0,
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            "components": {
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              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": 0.3159,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 0.9731,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
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            "player_id": "702056",
            "espn_rank": null
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
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            "factor": 0.9731,
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 0.9731,
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.056,
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          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 0.9359,
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 5.0,
            "factor": 1.0377,
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    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
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      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 20,
      "Pitches": 79,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
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  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "MATERIAL_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 2",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -2."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least three innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by -9 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260921_TOR@BAL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260921

20260921_TOR@BAL

home

Shane Baz

True

5.2

6.2

-1

7/5

2/3

4/2

Last 10 before this game (10 available)

gameID	game_date	opponent_team_id	InningsPitched	H	R	ER	BB	SO	HR

{
  "model_context": {
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      "WHIP": 1.3526011560693643,
      "IP": 173.0,
      "games_started": null,
      "games_pitched": 30,
      "role_avg_IP": 5.767,
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      "last_start_IP": 4.0,
      "projection_source": "all_players_stats_recent_season_blend"
    },
    "savant": {
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      "strikeout_factor": 0.9737,
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      "regression_flag": "neutral",
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      "barrel_percent": 6.9,
      "hard_hit_percent": 42.0,
      "whiff_percent": 21.9
    },
    "espn_rank": {
      "rank": 124,
      "total_ranked": null,
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    },
    "starter_workload_floor": null,
    "player_form_blend": {
      "form_version": "player_form_v3_5_10_season",
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      "effective_weights": {
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      "rows_used": 30,
      "reference_playing_time": 5.667,
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          "per_game": {
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        },
        "last_10": {
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          },
          "per_game": {
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          "rates": {
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        },
        "season": {
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            "H_per_IP": 1.00578,
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        "predicted_ER": {
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        "predicted_SO": {
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        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
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          "final": 4.4064,
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        "predicted_WHIP": {
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    "recent_form_analysis": {
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        "hot_streak": false,
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        "trend": "stable"
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      "pitching": {
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      "fielding": {
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        "games_fielded": 10,
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      "games_count": 10,
      "latest_game_date": "2026-09-15T00:00:00"
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    "recent_form_boost": 0.9724691015524084,
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      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
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          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
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          "weights": {},
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        {
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          "step": "current_json_final",
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            {
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      ],
      "total_change": {
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        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
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          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "worse"
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    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
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        "games": 156,
        "wins": 75,
        "losses": 81,
        "win_pct": 0.4808,
        "runs_scored": 693.0,
        "runs_allowed": 724.0,
        "run_differential": -31.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": -0.1987,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4423,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.641,
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        "current_streak": "L3",
        "recent": {
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.1,
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        "available": true,
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      "opponent": {
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        "games": 156,
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        "win_pct": 0.4936,
        "runs_scored": 629.0,
        "runs_allowed": 671.0,
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        "run_differential_per_game": -0.2692,
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          "avg_runs_scored": 4.0,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.5,
          "run_differential": -5.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": -0.0733
      },
      "edges": {
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        "offense_edge": -0.0131,
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        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.1
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 1.0046,
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        "strikeout": 1.0093
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      "savant_pitcher_quality_adjustment": {
        "applied": true,
        "pitcher_id": "669358",
        "profile": {
          "available": true,
          "pitcher_id": "669358",
          "player_name": "",
          "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher features",
          "source_url": null,
          "metrics": {
            "pa": 694.0,
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            "woba": 0.318,
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 35.5,
            "barrel_batted_rate": 6.9,
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            "avg_hyper_speed": 94.4624,
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            "swing_percent": 48.2
          },
          "league_medians": {
            "pa": 135.0,
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            "sweet_spot_percent": 33.3,
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            "avg_best_speed": 77.6329,
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            "whiff_percent": 25.0,
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          "components": {
            "contact_quality": -0.183,
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            "regression_edge": 0.0857,
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            "hard_hit_edge": -0.5857,
            "whiff_edge": -0.4429,
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          },
          "pitch_movement_profile": {
            "available": true,
            "pitcher_id": "669358",
            "player_name": null,
            "source": "all_players_stats.csv embedded Savant pitcher movement features",
            "total_pitches": 95,
            "primary_pitch": {
              "pitch_type": null,
              "pitch_name": null,
              "pitches": 95,
              "pitch_usage": 0.0,
              "release_speed": 90.70819900179096,
              "release_spin_rate": 2403.1313618200516,
              "spin_axis": null,
              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
              "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
              "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
              "release_pos_x": null,
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              "release_extension": 0.0,
              "arm_angle": 0.0,
              "whiff_percent": 0.0,
              "xwoba": 0.0,
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            },
            "pitch_mix": [
              {
                "pitch_type": null,
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                "pitches": 95,
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                "release_speed": 90.70819900179096,
                "release_spin_rate": 2403.1313618200516,
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                "induced_vertical_break_inches": 0.0,
                "vertical_break_with_gravity_inches": null,
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                "release_extension": 0.0,
                "arm_angle": 0.0,
                "whiff_percent": 0.0,
                "xwoba": 0.0,
                "hard_hit_percent": 0.0
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            ],
            "summary": {
              "release_speed": 90.7082,
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              "horizontal_break_inches": 0.0,
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            "components": {
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              "induced_vertical_break_edge": 0.0,
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              "velocity_edge": 0.3427,
              "whiff_edge": 0.0,
              "xwoba_edge": -0.0,
              "hard_hit_edge": -0.0
            },
            "spin_efficiency_note": "Savant statcast CSV provides spin rate and spin axis here; true spin efficiency is not exposed in this feed."
          },
          "quality_score": -0.1425,
          "sample_weight": 1.0,
          "run_prevention_factor": 1.0121,
          "strikeout_factor": 0.9737,
          "walk_factor": 0.98,
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          "regression_flag": "neutral",
          "espn_rank": {
            "available": false,
            "player_id": "669358",
            "espn_rank": null
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        },
        "adjusted_fields": {
          "predicted_ER": {
            "original": 3.0,
            "factor": 1.0121,
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          "predicted_H": {
            "original": 6.0,
            "factor": 1.0121,
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          "predicted_BB": {
            "original": 2.0,
            "factor": 0.98,
            "adjusted": 2
          },
          "predicted_HR": {
            "original": 1.0,
            "factor": 1.0215,
            "adjusted": 1
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          "predicted_SO": {
            "original": 4.0,
            "factor": 0.9737,
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        }
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 5.2,
      "predicted_H": 7,
      "predicted_R": 4,
      "predicted_ER": 4,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 4,
      "predicted_HR": 1,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 26,
      "Pitches": 109,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "QUALITY_START_CLASSIFICATION_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Quality-start classification was wrong",
      "detail": "Projected quality start: False; actual quality start: True."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260921_TOR@BAL.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}

20260921

20260921_WAS@DET

away

DJ Herz

True

2.1

4.0

4/5

0/2

7/4

Last 10 before this game (0 available)

No pregame recent-game rows were available.

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  "findings": [
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      "detail": "The model had no row-level pitching history before this game; any precise box-score line should carry a strong uncertainty warning."
    },
    {
      "code": "DIRECT_ER_MISS",
      "severity": "error",
      "title": "Earned-run miss of 3",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was +3."
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    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
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  }
}

20260921

20260921_WAS@DET

home

River Ryan

True

0.2

3.0

-1

5/2

2/1

2/3

Last 10 before this game (0 available)

No pregame recent-game rows were available.

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        },
        "predicted_ER": {
          "model": 1.0,
          "form": 0.17,
          "final": 0.8112,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_H": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 0.327,
          "final": 3.9369,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_BB": {
          "model": 2.0,
          "form": 0.125,
          "final": 1.5734,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_SO": {
          "model": 5.0,
          "form": 0.312,
          "final": 3.9335,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_HR": {
          "model": 0.0,
          "form": 0.05,
          "final": 0.0114,
          "source": "model_form_blend"
        },
        "predicted_ERA": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 4.5933,
          "final": 4.5933,
          "source": "form_only"
        },
        "predicted_WHIP": {
          "model": null,
          "form": 1.3576,
          "final": 1.3576,
          "source": "form_only"
        }
      }
    },
    "recent_form_analysis": null,
    "recent_form_boost": null,
    "stat_evolution": [
      {
        "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
        "stats": {
          "predicted_IP": 0.1,
          "predicted_ER": 1.0,
          "predicted_H": 5.0,
          "predicted_BB": 2.0,
          "predicted_SO": 5.0,
          "predicted_HR": 0.0
        },
        "form_shrinkage": {
          "method": "bayesian_league_prior",
          "sample_size": 0.0,
          "sample_unit": "starter_equivalent_games",
          "prior_size": 5.0,
          "data_weight": 0.0,
          "prior_weight": 1.0
        }
      }
    ],
    "prediction_impact_trace": {
      "trace_version": "1.0",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "player_id": "689981",
      "player_name": "River Ryan",
      "position": "Starter",
      "team": "DET",
      "interpretation": "Boost/deboost is numeric movement vs the previous step. Better/worse is role-aware: hitter offense up is better; pitcher run prevention down is better.",
      "steps": [
        {
          "index": 1,
          "step": "pitcher_form_blend",
          "description": "Pitcher model/profile expectation with Bayesian recent-form shrinkage",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 0.1,
            "predicted_SO": 5.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 0,
            "boosted_metrics": 0,
            "deboosted_metrics": 0,
            "better_metrics": 0,
            "worse_metrics": 0,
            "biggest_boost": null,
            "biggest_deboost": null
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        },
        {
          "index": 2,
          "step": "current_json_final",
          "description": "Final player values currently stored in the game JSON",
          "stats": {
            "predicted_BB": 2.0,
            "predicted_ER": 1.0,
            "predicted_H": 5.0,
            "predicted_HR": 0.0,
            "predicted_IP": 0.2,
            "predicted_R": 1.0,
            "predicted_SO": 2.0
          },
          "changed_metrics": [
            {
              "metric": "predicted_BB",
              "before": 2.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_ER",
              "before": 1.0,
              "after": 1.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_H",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 5.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": 0.0,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_HR",
              "before": 0.0,
              "after": 0.0,
              "delta": 0.0,
              "percent_delta": null,
              "direction": "no_change",
              "projection_effect": "neutral",
              "material": false
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 0.1,
              "after": 0.2,
              "delta": 0.1,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": -3.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.6,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          ],
          "summary": {
            "changed_metrics": 2,
            "boosted_metrics": 1,
            "deboosted_metrics": 1,
            "better_metrics": 1,
            "worse_metrics": 1,
            "biggest_boost": {
              "metric": "predicted_IP",
              "before": 0.1,
              "after": 0.2,
              "delta": 0.1,
              "percent_delta": 1.0,
              "direction": "boost",
              "projection_effect": "better",
              "material": true
            },
            "biggest_deboost": {
              "metric": "predicted_SO",
              "before": 5.0,
              "after": 2.0,
              "delta": -3.0,
              "percent_delta": -0.6,
              "direction": "deboost",
              "projection_effect": "worse",
              "material": true
            }
          },
          "weights": {},
          "window_games": {}
        }
      ],
      "total_change": {
        "from_step": "pitcher_form_blend",
        "to_step": "current_json_final",
        "changed_metrics": [
          {
            "metric": "predicted_BB",
            "before": 2.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_ER",
            "before": 1.0,
            "after": 1.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_H",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 5.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": 0.0,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_HR",
            "before": 0.0,
            "after": 0.0,
            "delta": 0.0,
            "percent_delta": null,
            "direction": "no_change",
            "projection_effect": "neutral",
            "material": false
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 0.1,
            "after": 0.2,
            "delta": 0.1,
            "percent_delta": 1.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": -3.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.6,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          }
        ],
        "summary": {
          "changed_metrics": 2,
          "boosted_metrics": 1,
          "deboosted_metrics": 1,
          "better_metrics": 1,
          "worse_metrics": 1,
          "biggest_boost": {
            "metric": "predicted_IP",
            "before": 0.1,
            "after": 0.2,
            "delta": 0.1,
            "percent_delta": 1.0,
            "direction": "boost",
            "projection_effect": "better",
            "material": true
          },
          "biggest_deboost": {
            "metric": "predicted_SO",
            "before": 5.0,
            "after": 2.0,
            "delta": -3.0,
            "percent_delta": -0.6,
            "direction": "deboost",
            "projection_effect": "worse",
            "material": true
          },
          "has_material_change": true,
          "dominant_effect": "neutral"
        }
      }
    },
    "team_form_snapshot": {
      "method": "team_form_snapshot",
      "role": "pitcher",
      "team": {
        "team": "DET",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 83,
        "win_pct": 0.4679,
        "runs_scored": 697.0,
        "runs_allowed": 629.0,
        "run_differential": 68.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.4359,
        "avg_runs_scored": 4.4679,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 4.0321,
        "offense_index": 0.9917,
        "defense_index": 1.1173,
        "current_streak": "L2",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 5.6,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.3,
          "run_differential": 13.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0609
      },
      "opponent": {
        "team": "WAS",
        "games": 156,
        "wins": 73,
        "losses": 83,
        "win_pct": 0.4679,
        "runs_scored": 798.0,
        "runs_allowed": 786.0,
        "run_differential": 12.0,
        "run_differential_per_game": 0.0769,
        "avg_runs_scored": 5.1154,
        "avg_runs_allowed": 5.0385,
        "offense_index": 1.1355,
        "defense_index": 0.8941,
        "current_streak": "L1",
        "recent": {
          "games": 10,
          "wins": 6,
          "losses": 4,
          "win_pct": 0.6,
          "avg_runs_scored": 4.8,
          "avg_runs_allowed": 4.4,
          "run_differential": 4.0
        },
        "available": true,
        "quality_score": 0.0171
      },
      "edges": {
        "quality_edge": 0.0438,
        "offense_edge": -0.0083,
        "opponent_offense_edge": 0.1355,
        "defense_strength": 0.1173,
        "opponent_defense_weakness": 0.1059,
        "recent_win_pct_edge": 0.0
      },
      "player_factors": {
        "ip": 0.9999,
        "run_prevention": 1.0078,
        "strikeout": 0.9905
      }
    },
    "simulation_box_score_stats": {
      "predicted_IP": 0.2,
      "predicted_H": 5,
      "predicted_R": 1,
      "predicted_ER": 1,
      "predicted_BB": 2,
      "predicted_SO": 2,
      "predicted_HR": 0,
      "box_score_synced": true,
      "BF": 9,
      "Pitches": 31,
      "published_line_source": "scoring_simulation.box_score"
    }
  },
  "findings": [
    {
      "code": "NO_PRIOR_HISTORY",
      "severity": "critical",
      "title": "No prior appearances in the source dataset",
      "detail": "The model had no row-level pitching history before this game; any precise box-score line should carry a strong uncertainty warning."
    },
    {
      "code": "ER_WITHIN_ONE",
      "severity": "good",
      "title": "Earned runs within one",
      "detail": "Actual minus predicted earned runs was -1."
    },
    {
      "code": "WORKLOAD_MISS",
      "severity": "warning",
      "title": "Workload missed by at least two innings",
      "detail": "The actual outing differed by +7 outs from the projected workload."
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "prediction": "output/games/20260921_WAS@DET.json (current server JSON; no revision substitution)",
    "pregame_season": "embedded season totals in the current server JSON; ESPN metrics are retained in the model context",
    "prior_history": "data/all_players_stats.csv; unique real appearances strictly before the target date",
    "target_game": "Official MLB Stats API live game feed",
    "postgame_season": "derived from pregame season totals plus the official target-game starter line"
  }
}