Nightly self-improvement · slate 2026-09-16
Generated 2026-09-17T05:00:00.007370-04:00 ET from official finals (mlb-api). Every learning stage is listed with what it did. "Blocked" means it wanted to act and a safety rule stopped it; "nothing to learn" means it had no eligible evidence.
Slate
2026-09-16
status completed
Winners
10/15
Brier 0.2413
Learned or changed
0
of 5 stages
Blocked
0
wanted to act and could not
Release
v4.31.0
DRIFT
What each learning stage did
| Stage | Outcome | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| KPI settlement | failed | did not run |
| Bullpen usage model | nothing to learn | No pregame bullpen forecasts to settle. Refit: not attempted. |
| Adaptive parameter proposal (Luna) | nothing to learn | skipped_open_rollback_monitor: |
| Auto-apply | nothing to learn | no_promotable_candidate |
| Code agent | nothing to learn | disabled_by_config: code changes are made on the development host, never in the container. |
Games
| Game | Predicted | Actual | Home win prob | Result | Main driver | Starters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL@CHC | 5-7 | 4-8 | 0.530 | hit | JR Ritchie: 13 proj / 14 real outs; Shota Imanaga: 16 proj / 18 real outs | |
| BAL@NYM | 5-7 | 7-1 | 0.530 | miss | Starting-pitcher projection was wrong | Chris Bassitt: 15 proj / 20 real outs; Xzavion Curry: 15 proj / 9 real outs |
| BOS@TEX | 6-5 | 3-7 | 0.472 | miss | Small edge on the losing side | Jake Bennett: 17 proj / 14 real outs; MacKenzie Gore: 15 proj / 12 real outs |
| CHW@CLE | 4-5 | 3-6 | 0.557 | hit | Anthony Kay: 14 proj / 12 real outs; Parker Messick: 18 proj / 18 real outs | |
| DET@TOR | 7-4 | 1-5 | 0.420 | miss | Run environment far lower than projected (over-dispersed) | Keider Montero: 17 proj / 12 real outs; Max Scherzer: 15 proj / 15 real outs |
| KC@HOU | 5-4 | 5-2 | 0.494 | hit | Daniel Lynch IV: 15 proj / 15 real outs; Cristian Javier: 14 proj / 16 real outs | |
| LAD@CIN | 8-4 | 2-6 | 0.420 | miss | Backed the wrong side with real conviction | Blake Snell: 18 proj / 3 real outs; Andrew Abbott: 13 proj / 14 real outs |
| MIA@ARI | 7-5 | 4-3 | 0.445 | hit | Ryan Gusto: 14 proj / 13 real outs; Merrill Kelly: 16 proj / 14 real outs | |
| MIL@PIT | 5-3 | 5-4 | 0.440 | hit | Logan Henderson: 18 proj / 15 real outs; Jared Jones: 15 proj / 15 real outs | |
| NYY@MIN | 7-4 | 4-5 | 0.420 | miss | Backed the wrong side with real conviction | Carlos Rodón: 17 proj / 18 real outs; Zebby Matthews: 17 proj / 18 real outs |
| OAK@TB | 2-6 | 3-4 | 0.767 | hit | Brady Basso: 15 proj / 8 real outs; Nick Martinez: 17 proj / 15 real outs | |
| PHI@WAS | 5-4 | 3-0 | 0.490 | hit | Zack Wheeler: 17 proj / 21 real outs; Jared Simpson: 9 proj / 1 real outs | |
| SD@COL | 7-5 | 9-3 | 0.470 | hit | Robbie Ray: 15 proj / 18 real outs; Mason Adams: 14 proj / 13 real outs | |
| SEA@LAA | 5-4 | 7-2 | 0.495 | hit | George Kirby: 17 proj / 13 real outs; Yusei Kikuchi: 14 proj / 13 real outs | |
| SF@STL | 5-4 | 6-5 | 0.486 | hit | Anthony Molina: 14 proj / 17 real outs; Matthew Liberatore: 15 proj / 18 real outs |
Day over day
Rolling evidence window against the prior night. Associations, not causal proof.
| Metric | Prior | Current | Change | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| brier_score | 0.2426 | 0.2391 | -0.0035 | improved |
| accuracy | 0.6000 | 0.6167 | 0.0167 | improved |
| team_run_mae | 2.5542 | 2.5458 | -0.0084 | improved |
| total_run_mae | 3.7917 | 3.6250 | -0.1667 | improved |
| calibration_error | 0.0840 | 0.0850 | 0.0010 | regressed |
| starter_er_mae | 1.7739 | 1.7333 | -0.0406 | improved |
| starter_outs_mae | 3.2874 | 3.2292 | -0.0582 | improved |
Calibration produced for the next slate
| Metric | Scale used | Measured | Rows | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| No calibration produced. | ||||
Luna KPI candidates and their promotion gate
Promotion needs 400+ prospective rows over 5+ slates after the proposal, with a gain interval above zero. Only verified pregame forecasts count; local replays never do.
| KPI | Status | Target | Proposed | Rows | Slates | Gain interval | Progress |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| luna_pitcher_release_speed_vs_righthanded_starters | shadow | SO | 20260923 | 330/400 | 5/5 | [-0.0007, 0.0007] | |
| luna_pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_rhh_righthanded_starters | shadow | HR | 20260923 | 330/400 | 5/5 | [-0.0004, 0.0049] | |
| luna_batter_contact_rate_vs_breaking_righthanded_starters | shadow | H | 20260923 | 330/400 | 5/5 | [-0.0045, 0.0044] | |
| luna_batter_contact_rate_vs_breaking_left_handed_starters_for_strikeouts | shadow | SO | 20260924 | 122/400 | 4/5 | [-0.0027, 0.0021] | |
| luna_pitcher_contact_xwoba_allowed_vs_righthanded_starters_for_strikeouts | shadow | SO | 20260924 | 122/400 | 4/5 | [-0.0001, 0.0000] | |
| luna_pitcher_whiff_rate_breaking_vs_left_handed_hitters_for_hits | shadow | H | 20260924 | 122/400 | 4/5 | [-0.0056, -0.0011] | |
| luna_pitcher_home_run_rate_vs_righthanded_starters | shadow | HR | 20260925 | 122/400 | 4/5 | [-0.0010, 0.0056] | |
| luna_batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball_vs_lhp_for_home_runs | shadow | HR | 20260926 | 86/400 | 3/5 | [-0.0001, -0.0000] | |
| luna_pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_right_handed_starters_for_batter_strikeouts | shadow | SO | 20260929 | 51/400 | 2/5 | [–, –] | |
| luna_batter_whiff_rate_vs_breaking_right_handed_starters_for_hits | shadow | H | 20260929 | 51/400 | 2/5 | [–, –] | |
| luna_batter_walk_rate_vs_righthanded_pitchers_for_home_runs | retired | HR | 20260924 | 0/400 | 0/5 | [–, –] |
Operator actions the cycle asked for (0)
Changes to code or a model recipe are never made by the nightly cycle. These are the measured findings that need one.
| Priority | Owner | Finding | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| No operator actions requested. | |||
Luna post-mortem
No Luna post-mortem this night.