Deep slate report 20260916

Which reports actually fed the diagnosis. A source shown as missing was not silently assumed.

High-level causal issue register

Source	Status	Evidence supplied	Path	Bytes
prediction review	loaded	official outcomes and scoring errors	/app/output/reports/prediction_review_20260916.json	378818
forensic deep audit	loaded	probability, provenance, starter and decision contracts	/app/output/reports/PREDICTION_SYSTEM_DEEP_AUDIT_20260916.json	240608
continuous learning	loaded	pipeline-stage quality, calibration, probability lineage, score distribution, and official starter comparisons	/app/output/learning/continuous_learning_daily_20260916.json	2575015
detailed report	loaded	full game and simulation rendering	/app/output/reports/detailed_20260916.html	358030
ultra detailed player audit	loaded	player-level prediction trace	/app/output/reports/20260916_ultra_detailed_player_audit.html	33728355
structural audit	loaded	all invariant findings	/app/output/reports/audit_report_20260916.html	1889063
integrity revision audit	missing	post-Luna remediation proof for immutable revision artifacts	/app/output/reports/audit_report_20260916_integrity_revision.html	n/a

Deterministic findings across data integrity, model validation, calibration, score distribution, pipeline stages, simulation, and coverage. Critical is reserved for broken evidence or an unexplained contract violation; high marks material model/process risk. Each row pairs the action to take (Do this) with the wrong conclusion to avoid (Don't conclude).

Cross-slate trends (persistent-pattern memory)

Escalated persistent patterns

A finding that has repeated at or beyond the escalation streak is no longer single-slate noise. It carries its target registered lever and an action-oriented guardrail.

Finding streaks across the window

Metric direction across the window

Pipeline stage regression

Every stored stage is scored against the same official finals. A later recovery remains visible; it does not erase an unstable intermediate flip.

Probability lineage and calibration

All columns are pick-side probabilities, so away favorites are not accidentally compared using home-side semantics.

Score distribution and margin compression

Narrow predicted margins next to wide actual margins is the signature the score-variance tail is too tight.

Per-game evidence coverage

Every game, in depth (15)

Severity	Domain	Finding and evidence	Affected	Action & guardrail
HIGH	pipeline_stages	An intermediate stage materially degraded winner direction historical_ml → variance_applied changed winner accuracy by -0.2000 (-3 hits)	BOS@TEX, KC@HOU, SEA@LAA	Do thisList the exact games whose winner flipped at this stage, and keep both the before-stage and after-stage picks in the trace. Don't concludeEven if a later stage recovers the pick, this unstable step is still a risk; do not treat it as harmless.
HIGH	calibration	Published confidence buckets were poorly aligned on this slate weighted absolute calibration error 0.1661 across 15 games	ATL@CHC, BAL@NYM, BOS@TEX, CHW@CLE, DET@TOR, KC@HOU, LAD@CIN, MIA@ARI, MIL@PIT, NYY@MIN, OAK@TB, PHI@WAS, SD@COL, SEA@LAA, SF@STL	Do thisWatch the same confidence buckets over the full rolling window before changing any calibration weight. Don't concludeA single slate has far too few games to establish a stable calibration curve.
HIGH	model_validation	Validated run models explain very little holdout variance home/away/total R² = 0.0021/0.0200/0.0035	ATL@CHC, BAL@NYM, BOS@TEX, CHW@CLE, DET@TOR, KC@HOU, LAD@CIN, MIA@ARI, MIL@PIT, NYY@MIN, OAK@TB, PHI@WAS, SD@COL, SEA@LAA, SF@STL	Do thisTreat exact run scores as low-confidence estimates, and look for stronger features or a better target before tuning the score tails. Don't concludeA small positive R² only means the model beats guessing the average; it does not make the exact scores reliable.
MEDIUM	calibration	Most high-raw picks lost before/after shrinkage 1/3 games with raw pick probability ≥0.65 won	LAD@CIN, NYY@MIN, OAK@TB	Do thisTrack how often high-raw-probability picks lose across multiple slates, and keep the raw to calibrated to published lineage. Don't concludeThis one slate is not enough to justify a new per-bucket shrinkage rule.
INFO	coverage	Every settled game received structural QA 15/15 games structurally audited	ATL@CHC, BAL@NYM, BOS@TEX, CHW@CLE, DET@TOR, KC@HOU, LAD@CIN, MIA@ARI, MIL@PIT, NYY@MIN, OAK@TB, PHI@WAS, SD@COL, SEA@LAA, SF@STL	Do thisKeep the per-game audit receipt in every report. Don't concludeFull audit coverage does not cancel the findings raised inside the audited games.
INFO	probability_lineage	Material calibrated-to-published movements have recorded lineage 9 material movement(s), all explained by named score-coherence and/or recency transformations	ATL@CHC, BAL@NYM, CHW@CLE, DET@TOR, LAD@CIN, MIL@PIT, NYY@MIN, PHI@WAS, SD@COL	Do thisKeep showing every probability layer and the named transformation between them. Don't concludeA published probability above the calibrated one is not a governor bypass when a recorded transformation explains it.
INFO	simulation	Simulation produced no winner-direction intervention on this slate flip candidates 0; published flips 0	ATL@CHC, BAL@NYM, BOS@TEX, CHW@CLE, DET@TOR, KC@HOU, LAD@CIN, MIA@ARI, MIL@PIT, NYY@MIN, OAK@TB, PHI@WAS, SD@COL, SEA@LAA, SF@STL	Do thisMeasure the simulation's contribution across rolling slates, separating score realization from winner flipping. Don't concludeZero winner flips is not a defect and does not mean the simulation did no score-reconciliation work.

Finding	Persistence	Target lever(s)	Direction	Guardrail
simulation_inert_on_slate	11 consecutive · 11 in window	simulation.allow_score	confirm the simulation module is running, not silently no-oping	simulation_inert_on_slate has persisted 11 consecutive slates; this is no longer single-slate noise. Treat it as an actionable pattern and raise the code/diagnostic action named; do not force a parameter move.
single_slate_calibration_instability	3 consecutive · 7 in window	confidence.empirical_max_weight, confidence.base_cap, confidence.moderate_cap	increase empirical shrinkage	single_slate_calibration_instability has persisted 3 consecutive slates; this is no longer single-slate noise. Treat it as an actionable pattern and propose a bounded shadow experiment against a target lever.
weak_run_model_signal	11 consecutive · 11 in window	training.xgb.n_estimators, training.xgb.max_depth, training.xgb.learning_rate	investigate features/target via isolated training backtest (manual)	weak_run_model_signal has persisted 11 consecutive slates; this is no longer single-slate noise. Treat it as an actionable pattern and raise the code/diagnostic action named; do not force a parameter move.

Finding	Consecutive slates	Incidence	Present now	Fix type
high_raw_probability_cluster	1	1/11	yes	param
pipeline_winner_instability	1	2/11	yes	code/diagnostic
score_margin_compression	0	1/11	no	param
simulation_inert_on_slate	11	11/11	yes	code/diagnostic
single_slate_calibration_instability	3	7/11	yes	param
weak_run_model_signal	11	11/11	yes	code/diagnostic

Metric	Direction	Series (old → new)
winner_accuracy	improving	[0.6, 0.5455, 0.7333, 0.6667, 0.6, 0.6667, 0.5333, 0.6, 0.7, 0.4, 0.6667]
weighted_calibration_error	improving	[0.0937, 0.2611, 0.1825, 0.1069, 0.1171, 0.2091, 0.1711, 0.0827, 0.2812, 0.2795, 0.1661]
margin_bias	improving	[-1.467, -0.182, -0.867, -2.133, -1.0, -2.933, -2.667, -1.8, -0.4, -1.667, -1.133]
team_run_error_on_losses	regressing	[5.333, 3.8, 6.75, 5.6, 6.5, 5.0, 6.143, 5.0, 6.333, 5.556, 6.4]

Stage	Winner hits	Accuracy	Team-run MAE	Total-run MAE	Margin MAE
historical_ml	9/15	60%	1.843	1.736	3.059
variance_applied	6/15	40%	1.867	1.867	2.933
enhanced_prediction	11/15	73.3%	1.933	2	3.2
embedded_savant_run_environment	11/15	73.3%	2.033	2.2	3.4
fundamental_edge_target_review	10/15	66.7%	2.1	2.2	3.533
capped_target	10/15	66.7%	2.1	2.2	3.533
simulation_result	10/15	66.7%	2.1	2.2	3.533
published_final	10/15	66.7%	2.1	2.2	3.533

Transition	Δ accuracy	Δ hits	Δ team-run MAE	Δ margin MAE	Games whose winner/tie changed
historical_ml → variance_applied	-0.2	-3	0.0239	-0.1261	BOS@TEX: TEX → TIE; KC@HOU: KC → TIE; OAK@TB: OAK → TIE; SEA@LAA: SEA → TIE; SF@STL: STL → TIE
variance_applied → enhanced_prediction	0.3333	5	0.0666	0.2667	BOS@TEX: TIE → TEX; KC@HOU: TIE → KC; OAK@TB: TIE → TB; SEA@LAA: TIE → SEA; SF@STL: TIE → SF
enhanced_prediction → embedded_savant_run_environment	0	0	0.1	0.2
embedded_savant_run_environment → fundamental_edge_target_review	-0.0666	-1	0.0667	0.1333	BOS@TEX: TEX → BOS
fundamental_edge_target_review → capped_target	0	0	0	0
capped_target → simulation_result	0	0	0	0
simulation_result → published_final	0	0	0	0

Game	Outcome	Raw model	Calibrated	Governor	Score coherence	Published	Explanation
ATL@CHC	hit	0.6244	0.5695	0.5695	0.5695	0.53	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
BAL@NYM	miss	0.6169	0.595	0.595	0.5863	0.53	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
BOS@TEX	miss	0.5432	0.5328	0.5328	0.5328	0.5279	published probability matches the calibrated/governed value
CHW@CLE	hit	0.6098	0.5787	0.5787	0.5782	0.5565	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
DET@TOR	miss	0.6469	0.6531	0.6531	0.6528	0.58	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
KC@HOU	hit	0.5	0.5076	0.5076	0.5076	0.5055	published probability matches the calibrated/governed value
LAD@CIN	miss	0.7529	0.7429	0.7429	0.7429	0.58	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
MIA@ARI	hit	0.5818	0.5642	0.5642	0.5642	0.5545	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
MIL@PIT	hit	0.6029	0.6672	0.6672	0.6598	0.56	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
NYY@MIN	miss	0.6828	0.6906	0.6906	0.6715	0.58	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
OAK@TB	hit	0.6849	0.7669	0.7669	0.7669	0.7669	published probability matches the calibrated/governed value
PHI@WAS	hit	0.5885	0.5506	0.5506	0.5506	0.5098	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
SD@COL	hit	0.6166	0.6367	0.6367	0.6367	0.53	score coherence followed by matchup-recency guardrail
SEA@LAA	hit	0.5039	0.5076	0.5076	0.5076	0.5052	published probability matches the calibrated/governed value
SF@STL	hit	0.5	0.5274	0.5274	0.5274	0.5136	no recorded transformation explains the publication delta

Sides analyzed	Broke on pitching	Broke on offense	Both	Variance	Mean starter ERA error	Mean lineup runs vs proj
30	4	5	2	19	2.09	-0.23

Game	Trained p(home)	Blended p(home)	Blend favoured	Published p(home)	Published side	Artifact says winner changed	Outcome
BOS@TEX	0.563	0.543	home	0.472	away	no	miss
KC@HOU	0.529	0.51	home	0.494	away	yes	hit
SF@STL	0.6	0.535	home	0.486	away	yes	hit

Slate	Games	Winner acc	Mean starter ERA error	Mean lineup runs vs proj	Sides broke on pitching	Sides broke on offense
20260915	15	0.400	-1.58	-0.70	1	12
20260914	10	0.700	-0.48	-0.20	2	6
20260913	15	0.600	-0.07	0.03	2	8
20260912	15	0.533	1.35	0.57	6	7
20260911	15	0.667	0.99	0.00	4	9
20260910	5	0.600	-3.19	-1.70		8
20260909	15	0.667	3.36	1.07	8	7
20260908	15	0.733	-0.15	-0.23	7	15
20260907	11	0.545	-0.86	-0.36	5	4
20260906	15	0.600	0.74	-0.30	6	10
20260905	15	0.533	-1.17	-0.07	2	6
20260904	16	0.625	-0.23	-0.44	5	12

Game	Pred margin	Actual margin	Pred − actual
ATL@CHC	2	4	-2
BAL@NYM	2	6	-4
BOS@TEX	1	4	-3
CHW@CLE	1	3	-2
DET@TOR	3	4	-1
KC@HOU	1	3	-2
LAD@CIN	4	4	0
MIA@ARI	2	1	1
MIL@PIT	2	1	1
NYY@MIN	3	1	2
OAK@TB	4	1	3
PHI@WAS	1	3	-2
SD@COL	2	6	-4
SEA@LAA	1	5	-4
SF@STL	1	1	0

ATL@CHCHIT

Predicted: CHC 5-7 (conf +0.06, lean)Actual: CHC 4-8Brier 0.221total bias +0

Root cause: Solid correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.06 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 2; total bias +0
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.068, recent -0.078, pitcher -0.146, composite +0.058
confidence pipeline reached 0.570 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.530
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

Shota Imanaga (CHC) allowed 4 fewer ER than projected (1 vs 5)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
ATL	JR Ritchie	4 ER / 13 outs	6 ER / 14 outs	2
CHC	Shota Imanaga	5 ER / 16 outs	1 ER / 18 outs	-4

Decision internals: run factors home×0.952 / away×1.097; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC CF): 3-for-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact 2.49]
Alex Bregman (CHC 3B): 3-for-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 2.16]
Seiya Suzuki (CHC RF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.73]
Mauricio Dubón (ATL LF): 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.4]
Matt Olson (ATL 1B): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.26]

Starter miss: Shota Imanaga (CHC) posted 1.50 ERA vs projected 8.44 (1 ER in 18 outs); he is materially worse pitching home (4.15 ERA there vs 3.45 on the other side), a venue-role weakness the model under-weighted.

What to do: Enable/raise the venue-split weight (context.venue_adjustment_weight) and validate in shadow; the split is credible for this starter.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

Per-pitch matchup fields are not populated in the current feeds, so this is reconstructed from the settled box: each starter's workload-adjusted ERA, the bullpen share behind him, and the opposing lineup's real production against its projection, with the hitters who beat that projection named.

AWAY pitching

JR Ritchie (ATL) threw 14 outs, 6 ER = 11.57 ERA against a projected 8.31 ERA (3.26 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 7 runs on 11 hits and 3 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Pete Crow-Armstrong: 3-for-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI [+2.49 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.378, elite - real projection error
Alex Bregman: 3-for-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI [+2.16 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.321, above average - real projection error
Michael Conforto: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.8 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.328, above average - real projection error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

HOME pitching

Shota Imanaga (CHC) threw 18 outs, 1 ER = 1.5 ERA against a projected 8.44 ERA (-6.94 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 3 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 4 runs on 8 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (0 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Mauricio Dubón: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+1.4 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.305, average - a good day, not a model error
Ronald Acuña Jr.: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.45 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.364, elite - a good day, not a model error
Ozzie Albies: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.282, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Starting pitchers & relievers: actual / projected + context (ERA is workload-aware: ER over 9 innings, so a short blow-up is not read like a quality start; ERA error in parentheses when material. exp BB and exp SO are the continuous rate expectations. The integer beside each is a simulation draw reconciled to the opposing simulated batting box, so it is not the line that ranks pitchers: on the 2026-09-07 slate the integers published 39 walks and 121 strikeouts against 51 and 130 real, while these expectations landed on 50.4 and 132.6.)

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
ATL	JR Ritchie (Starter)	14 / 13	11.57 / 8.31 (+3.26)	6 / 4	7 / 3	2 / 1	2 / 1	2.82	5 / 6	4.52	venue away: 6 vs 3.29 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.95 (strong) · 14 prior appearances this season
CHC	Shota Imanaga (Starter)	18 / 16	1.5 / 8.44 (-6.94)	1 / 5	4 / 4	0 / 2	0 / 0	1.77	8 / 4	4.99	venue home: 4.15 vs 3.45 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.1 (strong) · 29 prior appearances this season
CHC	Ryan Zeferjahn (Setup Man)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.72	1 / 1	1.23

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CF)	CHC	4 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	3 / 1	3 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	2.49	0.378 elite	projection too low
Alex Bregman (3B)	CHC	4 / 4	3 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	4 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2.16	0.321 above average	projection too low
Seiya Suzuki (RF)	CHC	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.73	0.339 elite	bad day
Mauricio Dubón (LF)	ATL	4 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1.4	0.305 average	no signal
Matt Olson (1B)	ATL	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.26	0.352 elite	bad day
Drake Baldwin (DH)	ATL	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-1.11	0.364 elite	bad day
Michael Conforto (DH)	CHC	3 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	0.8	0.328 above average	projection too low
Sean Murphy (C)	ATL	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.256 weak	—
Michael Busch (1B)	CHC	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	-0.47	0.33 above average	—
Nico Hoerner (SS)	CHC	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.47	0.322 above average	—
Carson Kelly (C)	CHC	4 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.313 average	—
Ronald Acuña Jr. (RF)	ATL	4 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	0.45	0.364 elite	—
Ozzie Albies (2B)	ATL	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.33	0.282 weak	—
Ian Happ (LF)	CHC	2 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.02	0.317 average	—
Michael Harris II (CF)	ATL	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.339 elite	—
Ha-Seong Kim (SS)	ATL	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.221 weak	—
Austin Riley (3B)	ATL	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.297 below average	—
Pedro Ramirez (2B)	CHC	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.289 below average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.068	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.078	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.146	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.058	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	3.77-5.68	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-6	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-6	0.53	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-7	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-7	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-7	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-7	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	3.77-5.68	4-6	0.092	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-6	5-6	-1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-6	5-7	1	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-7	5-7	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-7	5-7	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-7	5-7	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
CHC	Pete Crow-Armstrong	batter / CF	worse	predicted_RBI 3.1
CHC	Michael Conforto	batter / DH	better	predicted_RBI 2.8
ATL	Ozzie Albies	batter / 2B	better	predicted_RBI 2.43
CHC	Seiya Suzuki	batter / RF	worse	predicted_AB -2.18
ATL	Ronald Acuña Jr.	batter / RF	worse	predicted_SO 2.02
CHC	Shota Imanaga	pitcher / Starter	neutral	predicted_SO 2
CHC	Nico Hoerner	batter / SS	worse	predicted_AB -1.986
CHC	Michael Busch	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_SO 1.98

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ATL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	ATL
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CHC
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=6, sim=7).	ATL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ATL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=10; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	ATL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ATL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Drake Baldwin: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Ronald Acuña Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ozzie Albies: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3; Matt Olson: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Michael Harris II: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Sean Murphy: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Mauricio Dubón: R current=0 box=1; Ha-Seong Kim: H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1	ATL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=29; H: current=8, sim=5; RBI: current=5, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; BB: current=5, sim=1; SO: current=7, sim=8; HBP: current=0, sim=2).	CHC
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Michael Busch: H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Seiya Suzuki: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Nico Hoerner: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Alex Bregman: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Pete Crow-Armstrong: RBI current=1 box=4, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ian Happ: BB current=1 box=0; Pedro Ramirez: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Michael Conforto: H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3	CHC
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

BAL@NYMMISS

Predicted: NYM 5-7 (conf +0.06, lean)Actual: BAL 7-1Brier 0.281total bias +4

Root cause: Starting-pitcher projection was wrong

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.06 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 8; total bias +4
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.058, recent -0.038, pitcher +0.032, composite +0.454
confidence pipeline reached 0.595 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.530
score-volatility actions: supported_blowout_margin_expansion
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 4 (12 vs 8)
NYM offense over-projected by 6
Chris Bassitt (BAL) allowed 3 fewer ER than projected (1 vs 4)
Xzavion Curry (NYM) allowed 5 more ER than projected (6 vs 1)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
BAL	Chris Bassitt	4 ER / 15 outs	1 ER / 20 outs	-3
NYM	Xzavion Curry	1 ER / 15 outs	6 ER / 9 outs	5

Decision internals: run factors home×1.032 / away×1; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Christian Encarnacion-Strand (BAL 3B): 3-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 2.49]
Samuel Basallo (BAL C): 2-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.4]
Francisco Lindor (NYM SS): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.26]
Dylan Beavers (BAL LF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
Jeremiah Jackson (BAL 2B): 1-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.93]

Starter miss: Xzavion Curry (NYM) posted 18.00 ERA vs projected 1.80 (6 ER in 9 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Chris Bassitt (BAL) threw 20 outs, 1 ER = 1.35 ERA against a projected 7.2 ERA (-5.85 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 3 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 1 runs on 7 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (-4 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Brett Baty: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.31, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Xzavion Curry (NYM) threw 9 outs, 6 ER = 18 ERA against a projected 1.8 ERA (16.2 ERA error) only 8 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 7 runs on 9 hits and 4 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 7 hits (3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Christian Encarnacion-Strand: 3-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+2.49 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.342, elite - real projection error
Samuel Basallo: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.4 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.324, above average - real projection error
Jeremiah Jackson: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.291, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: both: the starter was hit hard AND the lineup underproduced

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
BAL	Chris Bassitt (Starter)	20 / 15	1.35 / 7.2 (-5.85)	1 / 4	5 / 6	0 / 1	1 / 1	2.05	6 / 3	5.35	venue away: 6.13 vs 3.54 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.03 (average) · 18 prior appearances this season
BAL	Yennier Cano (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0.16	0 / 1	0.74
NYM	Xzavion Curry (Starter)	9 / 15	18 / 1.8 (+16.20)	6 / 1	6 / 4	4 / 1	1 / 1	2.4	3 / 4	3.21	opp run factor 1 (average) · 8 prior appearances this season

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Christian Encarnacion-Strand (3B)	BAL	4 / 4	3 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	3 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	2.49	0.342 elite	projection too low
Samuel Basallo (C)	BAL	4 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1.4	0.324 above average	projection too low
Francisco Lindor (SS)	NYM	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-1.26	0.329 above average	bad day
Dylan Beavers (LF)	BAL	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	-1.11	0.296 below average	projection too high
Jeremiah Jackson (2B)	BAL	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.93	0.291 below average	good day
Gunnar Henderson (SS)	BAL	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.8	0.318 average	no signal
Colton Cowser (CF)	BAL	3 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.8	0.315 average	no signal
Juan Soto (LF)	NYM	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	-0.8	0.412 elite	bad day
Rece Hinds (RF)	BAL	4 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.47	0.171 weak	—
Carson Benge (RF)	NYM	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.338 above average	—
Brett Baty (DH)	NYM	4 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.47	0.31 average	—
Luis Torrens (C)	NYM	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	-0.47	0.295 below average	—
Pete Alonso (1B)	BAL	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.33	0.395 elite	—
Coby Mayo (DH)	BAL	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	-0.14	0.328 above average	—
A.J. Ewing (CF)	NYM	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.14	0.322 above average	—
Jared Young (1B)	NYM	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.02	0.322 above average	—
Bo Bichette (3B)	NYM	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.326 above average	—
Marcus Semien (2B)	NYM	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.304 average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.058	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.038	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.032	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.454	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.04-4.93	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-6	0.53	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-7	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-7	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-7	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-7	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.04-4.93	4-5	0.107	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	5-6	0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-6	5-7	1	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-7	5-7	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-7	5-7	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-7	5-7	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
NYM	A.J. Ewing	batter / CF	better	predicted_RBI 2.648
NYM	Juan Soto	batter / LF	deboosted	predicted_2B 1.898
BAL	Dylan Beavers	batter / LF	worse	predicted_AB 1.835
NYM	Bo Bichette	batter / 3B	deboosted	predicted_2B 1.834
BAL	Samuel Basallo	batter / C	neutral	predicted_RBI 1.8
BAL	Rece Hinds	batter / RF	better	predicted_2B 1.787
BAL	Gunnar Henderson	batter / SS	worse	predicted_AB -1.53
BAL	Pete Alonso	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_AB -1.4

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BAL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	BAL
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYM pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	NYM
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=6, sim=7).	BAL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BAL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; 2B: current=1, sim=2; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=2; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	BAL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BAL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Coby Mayo: 3B current=0 box=1; Pete Alonso: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Christian Encarnacion-Strand: HR current=0 box=1; Dylan Beavers: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Gunnar Henderson: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Samuel Basallo: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Jeremiah Jackson: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Rece Hinds: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1	BAL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYM model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; 2B: current=1, sim=5; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=7, sim=5).	NYM
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYM current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Carson Benge: H current=1 box=0; Jared Young: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0; Juan Soto: H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; A.J. Ewing: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=3, BB current=1 box=0; Bo Bichette: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Brett Baty: SO current=1 box=0; Francisco Lindor: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Marcus Semien: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1	NYM
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

BOS@TEXMISS

Predicted: BOS 6-5 (conf -0.06, lean)Actual: TEX 3-7Brier 0.279total bias +1

Root cause: Small edge on the losing side

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.06 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 5; total bias +1
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.640, recent -0.124, pitcher -0.058, composite -0.330
confidence pipeline reached 0.533 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.472
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

BOS offense over-projected by 3

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
BOS	Jake Bennett	3 ER / 17 outs	3 ER / 14 outs	0
TEX	MacKenzie Gore	3 ER / 15 outs	3 ER / 12 outs	0

Decision internals: run factors home×0.971 / away×1.029; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Josh Jung (TEX 3B): 3-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.25]
Adley Rutschman (BOS C): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
Justin Foscue (TEX 2B): 2-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.78]

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Jake Bennett (BOS) threw 14 outs, 3 ER = 5.79 ERA against a projected 4.76 ERA (1.03 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 3 ER over 3 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 6 runs on 13 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Josh Jung: 3-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.25 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.347, elite - real projection error
Justin Foscue: 2-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.327, above average - real projection error
Danny Jansen: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.262, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

MacKenzie Gore (TEX) threw 12 outs, 3 ER = 6.75 ERA against a projected 5.4 ERA (1.35 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 3 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 2 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-1 runs vs projection).

No individual hitter beat his projection by a meaningful margin.

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
BOS	Jake Bennett (Starter)	14 / 17	5.79 / 4.76	3 / 3	8 / 4	0 / 1	1 / 0	0.79	7 / 5	5.34	venue away: 3.19 vs 4.21 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.97 (average) · 18 prior appearances this season
BOS	Erik Miller (Setup Man)	3 / 3	27 / 0 (+27.00)	3 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.73	1 / 2	1.55
TEX	MacKenzie Gore (Starter)	12 / 15	6.75 / 5.4	3 / 3	2 / 3	1 / 0	3 / 4	2.7	0 / 2	4.85	venue home: 3.36 vs 5.79 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.03 (average) · 31 prior appearances this season
TEX	Jakob Junis (Setup Man)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.25	2 / 2	0.57

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Josh Jung (3B)	TEX	5 / 4	3 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1.25	0.347 elite	projection too low
Adley Rutschman (C)	BOS	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-1.11	0.331 above average	bad day
Justin Foscue (2B)	TEX	5 / 3	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.78	0.327 above average	projection too low
Roman Anthony (LF)	BOS	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.47	0.348 elite	—
Jahmai Jones (DH)	BOS	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.327 above average	—
Wilyer Abreu (RF)	BOS	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.47	0.351 elite	—
Isiah Kiner-Falefa (2B)	BOS	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.311 average	—
Danny Jansen (C)	TEX	3 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.262 weak	—
Willson Contreras (1B)	BOS	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.33	0.377 elite	—
Corey Seager (SS)	TEX	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.33	0.352 elite	—
Trevor Story (SS)	BOS	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.31	0.248 weak	—
Caleb Durbin (3B)	BOS	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 0	0 / 1	0.19	0.293 below average	—
Jake Burger (1B)	TEX	4 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.18	0.315 average	—
Nate Eaton (CF)	BOS	1 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.269 weak	—
Ezequiel Duran (CF)	TEX	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.306 average	—
Elias Díaz (DH)	TEX	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.267 weak	—
Brandon Nimmo (RF)	TEX	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.345 elite	—
Wyatt Langford (LF)	TEX	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	0	0.316 average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.64	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.124	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.058	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.33	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.16-4.18	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	0.528	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	6-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.16-4.18	4-4	0.017	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-4	4-5	-1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	4-5	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	6-5	2	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	6-5	6-5	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	6-5	6-5	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
TEX	Justin Foscue	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_RBI 2.72
BOS	Roman Anthony	batter / LF	deboosted	predicted_RBI 2.62
BOS	Jahmai Jones	batter / DH	worse	predicted_RBI 1.9
BOS	Adley Rutschman	batter / C	worse	predicted_AB -1.65
BOS	Wilyer Abreu	batter / RF	worse	predicted_AB -1.53
BOS	Willson Contreras	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_AB 1.496
BOS	Trevor Story	batter / SS	worse	predicted_AB -1.36
TEX	Josh Jung	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_H -1.24

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	BOS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	BOS
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TEX pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	TEX
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	BOS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=4, sim=6; BB: current=3, sim=6; SO: current=9, sim=7; SF: current=0, sim=1).	BOS
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	BOS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Roman Anthony: RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Jahmai Jones: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Willson Contreras: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Wilyer Abreu: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Trevor Story: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Nate Eaton: BB current=0 box=1; Adley Rutschman: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Isiah Kiner-Falefa: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SF current=0 box=1	BOS
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TEX model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=2, sim=4; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=2, sim=3; SO: current=8, sim=11).	TEX
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TEX current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Justin Foscue: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Corey Seager: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Jake Burger: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Ezequiel Duran: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Josh Jung: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Elias Díaz: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Brandon Nimmo: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Wyatt Langford: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0	TEX
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

CHW@CLEHIT

Predicted: CLE 4-5 (conf +0.11, moderate)Actual: CLE 3-6Brier 0.197total bias +0

Root cause: Strong correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.11 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 2; total bias +0
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.110, recent +0.202, pitcher -0.045, composite +0.070
confidence pipeline reached 0.579 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.557
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

Anthony Kay (CHW) allowed 5 fewer ER than projected (0 vs 5)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
CHW	Anthony Kay	5 ER / 14 outs	0 ER / 12 outs	-5
CLE	Parker Messick	2 ER / 18 outs	3 ER / 18 outs	1

Decision internals: run factors home×0.936 / away×0.982; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Tommy Pham (CHW DH): 1-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.4]
Petey Halpin (CLE CF): 2-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.4]
Miguel Vargas (CHW 1B): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.26]
Travis Bazzana (CLE DH): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]
Randal Grichuk (CHW LF): 2-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.78]

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

No settled pitching line for this club. The forecast named Anthony Kay (CHW) at a projected 9.64 ERA, but the per-player feed carries no pitching row for him in this game, so the actual-versus-projected comparison cannot be made on this side. That is a source-coverage gap in the settled box, not a forecasting failure.

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 6 runs on 5 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Petey Halpin: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+1.4 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.29, below average - a good day, not a model error
José Ramírez: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.45 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.328, above average - a good day, not a model error
David Fry: 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.265, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Parker Messick (CLE) threw 18 outs, 3 ER = 4.5 ERA against a projected 3 ERA (1.5 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 9 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 8 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 3 runs / 6 hits (0 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Tommy Pham: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI [+1.4 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.21, weak - a good day, not a model error
Randal Grichuk: 2-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.336, above average - real projection error
Chase Meidroth: 3-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.61 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.297, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
CLE	Parker Messick (Starter)	18 / 18	4.5 / 3	3 / 2	7 / 6	1 / 0	0 / 2	1.5	8 / 7	5.66	venue home: 2.85 vs 2.21 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.98 (average) · 29 prior appearances this season
CLE	Cade Smith (Closer)	4 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.37	2 / 0	1.59
CLE	Hunter Gaddis (Setup Man)	3 / 3	0 / 18 (-18.00)	0 / 2	1 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.36	0 / 0	0.81
CLE	Erik Sabrowski (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	2 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0.44	0 / 2	1.18

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Tommy Pham (DH)	CHW	4 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1.4	0.21 weak	good day
Petey Halpin (CF)	CLE	4 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	3 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1.4	0.29 below average	good day
Miguel Vargas (1B)	CHW	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.26	0.379 elite	bad day
Travis Bazzana (DH)	CLE	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.8	0.303 below average	projection too high
Randal Grichuk (LF)	CHW	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.78	0.336 above average	projection too low
Chase Meidroth (2B)	CHW	5 / 4	3 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0.61	0.297 below average	good day
Jo Adell (RF)	CLE	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	2 / 1	-0.6	0.329 above average	bad day
Colson Montgomery (3B)	CHW	1 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 2	-0.47	0.302 below average	—
Tristan Peters (RF)	CHW	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.316 average	—
Steven Kwan (LF)	CLE	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	-0.47	0.324 above average	—
José Ramírez (3B)	CLE	4 / 4	2 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0.45	0.328 above average	—
David Fry (1B)	CLE	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.33	0.265 weak	—
Angel Genao (2B)	CLE	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.14	0.295 below average	—
Austin Hedges (C)	CLE	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.14	0.276 weak	—
Brayan Rocchio (SS)	CLE	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	-0.14	0.293 below average	—
Brenton Doyle (CF)	CHW	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.236 weak	—
Luisangel Acuña (SS)	CHW	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.265 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.11	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.202	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.045	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	0.07	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	3.83-5.34	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	0.557	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	3.83-5.34	4-5	-0.508	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-5	4-5	0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	4-5	4-5	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	4-5	4-5	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	4-5	4-5	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	4-5	4-5	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
CHW	Tommy Pham	batter / DH	better	predicted_H 3
CLE	Parker Messick	pitcher / Starter	better	predicted_SO 3
CHW	Randal Grichuk	batter / LF	worse	predicted_AB 2.5
CLE	Cade Smith	pitcher / Closer	worse	predicted_SO -2
CHW	Tristan Peters	batter / RF	worse	predicted_RBI 1.606
CLE	David Fry	batter / 1B	boosted	predicted_AB 1.5
CHW	Colson Montgomery	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_SO -1.469
CHW	Brenton Doyle	batter / CF	worse	predicted_H 1.39

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CHW pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CHW
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CLE pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CLE
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CHW model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=36; H: current=7, sim=9; 2B: current=2, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; R: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=10, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	CHW
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CHW current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Randal Grichuk: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Miguel Vargas: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Tommy Pham: AB current=3 box=5, H current=0 box=3, 2B current=0 box=2, RBI current=0 box=2; Colson Montgomery: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=2 box=0; Kyle Teel: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Tristan Peters: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Brenton Doyle: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, HBP current=0 box=1; Chase Meidroth: 2B current=1 box=0	CHW
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CLE model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=31; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=1, sim=2; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=3, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=6, sim=5).	CLE
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CLE current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Travis Bazzana: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; David Fry: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Angel Genao: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; José Ramírez: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Austin Hedges: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jo Adell: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Steven Kwan: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Brayan Rocchio: H current=1 box=2	CLE
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

DET@TORMISS

Predicted: DET 7-4 (conf -0.16, moderate)Actual: TOR 1-5Brier 0.336total bias +5

Root cause: Run environment far lower than projected (over-dispersed)

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.16 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 7; total bias +5
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.854, recent -1.070, pitcher -0.015, composite -1.310
confidence pipeline reached 0.653 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.420
score-volatility actions: supported_blowout_margin_expansion
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 5 (11 vs 6)
DET offense over-projected by 6
committed to DET at 0.16 confidence and it lost

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
DET	Keider Montero	3 ER / 17 outs	2 ER / 12 outs	-1
TOR	Max Scherzer	3 ER / 15 outs	1 ER / 15 outs	-2

Decision internals: run factors home×1.032 / away×1.047; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Dillon Dingler (DET C): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Kazuma Okamoto (TOR 3B): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.07]
Myles Straw (TOR LF): 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.94]
Spencer Torkelson (DET 1B): 1-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.8]
Colt Keith (DET DH): 1-for-1, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.64]

Starter miss: Max Scherzer (TOR) posted 1.80 ERA vs projected 5.40 (1 ER in 15 outs); he is materially worse pitching home (6.75 ERA there vs 5.70 on the other side), a venue-role weakness the model under-weighted.

What to do: Enable/raise the venue-split weight (context.venue_adjustment_weight) and validate in shadow; the split is credible for this starter.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Keider Montero (DET) threw 12 outs, 2 ER = 4.5 ERA against a projected 4.76 ERA (-0.26 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 1 ER over 3 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 5 runs on 9 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Myles Straw: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.94 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.297, below average - a good day, not a model error
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.336, above average - a good day, not a model error
Brandon Valenzuela: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.31, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

HOME pitching

Max Scherzer (TOR) threw 15 outs, 1 ER = 1.8 ERA against a projected 5.4 ERA (-3.6 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 9 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 1 runs on 6 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (-4 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Spencer Torkelson: 1-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.8 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.312, average - a good day, not a model error
Colt Keith: 1-for-1, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.64 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.336, above average - real projection error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
DET	Keider Montero (Starter)	12 / 17	4.5 / 4.76	2 / 3	6 / 6	0 / 1	2 / 1	1.28	4 / 4	3.07	venue away: 4.31 vs 3.29 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.03 (weak) · 30 prior appearances this season
DET	Tyler Holton (Setup Man)	3 / 4	9 / 0 (+9.00)	1 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.28	0 / 0	1.06
TOR	Max Scherzer (Starter)	15 / 15	1.8 / 5.4 (-3.60)	1 / 3	3 / 5	0 / 0	3 / 1	1.96	3 / 6	3.19	venue home: 6.75 vs 5.7 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.05 (average) · 15 prior appearances this season
TOR	Spencer Miles (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	6 / 5	0 / 0	0 / 0	4 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.3	1 / 2	1.2
TOR	Louis Varland (Closer)	3 / 4	0 / 6.75 (-6.75)	0 / 1	0 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.34	2 / 0	1.07

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Dillon Dingler (C)	DET	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-1.4	0.338 above average	bad day
Kazuma Okamoto (3B)	TOR	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	-1.07	0.33 above average	bad day
Myles Straw (LF)	TOR	4 / 3	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.94	0.297 below average	good day
Spencer Torkelson (1B)	DET	2 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	0.8	0.312 average	no signal
Colt Keith (DH)	DET	1 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.64	0.336 above average	projection too low
Riley Greene (LF)	DET	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.64	0.372 elite	bad day
George Springer (DH)	TOR	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.64	0.308 average	no signal
Hao-Yu Lee (2B)	DET	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.297 below average	—
John Peck (SS)	DET	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.332 above average	—
Ernie Clement (SS)	TOR	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.47	0.26 weak	—
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (1B)	TOR	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0.33	0.336 above average	—
Brandon Valenzuela (C)	TOR	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.33	0.31 average	—
Kevin McGonigle (3B)	DET	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	0.14	0.357 elite	—
Brett Callahan (RF)	DET	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.14	0.29 below average	—
Brett Bateman (CF)	TOR	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0.14	0.306 average	—
Josh Smith (2B)	TOR	4 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.02	0.284 weak	—
Max Clark (CF)	DET	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.311 average	—
Nathan Lukes (RF)	TOR	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.284 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.854	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-1.07	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.015	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-1.31	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.75-3.57	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6-4	0.58	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	7-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	7-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	7-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	7-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.75-3.57	5-4	-0.175	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	6-4	1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-4	7-4	1	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	7-4	7-4	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	7-4	7-4	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	7-4	7-4	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
DET	Brett Callahan	batter / RF	better	predicted_H 2.434
DET	Colt Keith	batter / DH	worse	predicted_AB 2.159
DET	Max Clark	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB -2.04
TOR	Max Scherzer	pitcher / Starter	worse	predicted_ER 2
TOR	Louis Varland	pitcher / Closer	better	predicted_ER -2
TOR	Brett Bateman	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB -1.6
TOR	George Springer	batter / DH	better	predicted_RBI 1.49
TOR	Kazuma Okamoto	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_SO -1.2

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	DET pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	DET
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TOR pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	TOR
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	DET model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=4; 3B: current=0, sim=1; RBI: current=4, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=8, sim=10).	DET
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	DET current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Colt Keith: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Kevin McGonigle: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Hao-Yu Lee: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Riley Greene: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Brett Callahan: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, 3B current=0 box=1; Dillon Dingler: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Max Clark: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; John Peck: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2	DET
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=6, sim=7).	TOR
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TOR model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=34; H: current=8, sim=7; 2B: current=1, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=6, sim=4).	TOR
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TOR current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Brett Bateman: 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Nathan Lukes: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; George Springer: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Ernie Clement: H current=1 box=0; Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: SO current=0 box=1; Myles Straw: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Kazuma Okamoto: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Josh Smith: 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	TOR
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

KC@HOUHIT

Predicted: KC 5-4 (conf -0.01, toss_up)Actual: KC 5-2Brier 0.245total bias +2

Root cause: Toss-up that went our way

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.01 (toss_up); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 2; total bias +2
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.290, recent +0.267, pitcher -0.098, composite -0.170
confidence pipeline reached 0.508 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.494
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

No large single-factor errors.

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
KC	Daniel Lynch IV	1 ER / 15 outs	0 ER / 15 outs	-1
HOU	Cristian Javier	2 ER / 14 outs	2 ER / 16 outs	0

Decision internals: run factors home×0.977 / away×1.075; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Michael Massey (KC 2B): 3-for-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.56]
Yainer Diaz (HOU C): 2-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.4]
Jeremy Peña (HOU SS): 3-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.25]
Yordan Alvarez (HOU DH): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -0.95]
John Rave (KC CF): 1-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.93]

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Daniel Lynch IV (KC) threw 15 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 1.8 ERA (-1.8 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 2 ER over 10 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 2 runs on 8 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 7 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Yainer Diaz: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.4 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.304, average - a good day, not a model error
Jeremy Peña: 3-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.25 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.327, above average - real projection error
Jorge Barrosa: 0-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.66 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.239, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Cristian Javier (HOU) threw 16 outs, 2 ER = 3.38 ERA against a projected 3.86 ERA (-0.48 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 2 ER over 4 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 5 runs on 8 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Michael Massey: 3-for-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.56 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.309, average - a good day, not a model error
John Rave: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.318, average - a good day, not a model error
Isaac Collins: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.298, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
KC	Daniel Lynch IV (Starter)	15 / 15	0 / 1.8	0 / 1	2 / 2	0 / 0	1 / 3	1.68	3 / 5	1.83	venue away: 7.94 vs 5.85 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.98 (average) · 53 prior appearances this season
KC	Nate Pearson (Setup Man)	3 / 4	9 / 0 (+9.00)	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.5	0 / 2	1.22
KC	Craig Kimbrel (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.6	0 / 1	0.81
KC	Steven Cruz (Closer)	3 / 5	9 / 0 (+9.00)	1 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 2	0.33	3 / 1	0.9
KC	Nolan Hoffman (Reliever)	1 / 0	0 / n/a	0 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	n/a	0 / 2	n/a
HOU	Cristian Javier (Starter)	16 / 14	3.38 / 3.86	2 / 2	5 / 5	1 / 0	3 / 3	1.77	2 / 4	4.6	venue home: 5.7 vs 7.23 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.07 (weak) · 15 prior appearances this season
HOU	Enyel De Los Santos (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	4 / 3	13.5 / 9 (+4.50)	2 / 1	2 / 2	1 / 0	2 / 1	0.38	2 / 2	0.82

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Michael Massey (2B)	KC	5 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1.56	0.309 average	no signal
Yainer Diaz (C)	HOU	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1.4	0.304 average	no signal
Jeremy Peña (SS)	HOU	4 / 4	3 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	1.25	0.327 above average	projection too low
Yordan Alvarez (DH)	HOU	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.95	0.443 elite	bad day
John Rave (CF)	KC	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.93	0.318 average	no signal
Isaac Paredes (3B)	HOU	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	-0.8	0.319 average	no signal
Jorge Barrosa (LF)	HOU	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	1 / 1	0.66	0.239 weak	good day
Jose Altuve (2B)	HOU	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.64	0.271 weak	projection too high
Carter Jensen (C)	KC	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	-0.62	0.314 average	no signal
Vinnie Pasquantino (1B)	KC	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	-0.47	0.328 above average	—
Salvador Perez (DH)	KC	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.31 average	—
Isaac Collins (LF)	KC	3 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0.47	0.298 below average	—
Christian Walker (1B)	HOU	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.3 below average	—
Nick Loftin (RF)	KC	2 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.33	0.292 below average	—
Josh Rojas (3B)	KC	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0.33	0.224 weak	—
Bobby Witt Jr. (SS)	KC	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	-0.14	0.379 elite	—
Cam Smith (RF)	HOU	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.319 average	—
Daulton Varsho (CF)	HOU	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.285 below average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.29	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.267	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.098	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.17	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.57-4.51	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	0.506	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.57-4.51	5-5	-0.051	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-5	5-4	1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	5-4	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	5-4	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	5-4	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	5-4	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
HOU	Jorge Barrosa	batter / LF	better	predicted_AB 2.5
HOU	Yordan Alvarez	batter / DH	worse	predicted_AB 2.432
HOU	Yainer Diaz	batter / C	worse	predicted_SO 2.383
HOU	Christian Walker	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_AB 2.326
KC	Salvador Perez	batter / DH	worse	predicted_SO 2.214
KC	John Rave	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB 2.105
HOU	Cam Smith	batter / RF	worse	predicted_SO 2.036
KC	Vinnie Pasquantino	batter / 1B	better	predicted_AB 2.01

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	HOU pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	HOU
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	KC pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	KC
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	HOU model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=46; H: current=7, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; BB: current=3, sim=6; SO: current=7, sim=12).	HOU
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	HOU current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jeremy Peña: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Yordan Alvarez: AB current=4 box=6, H current=1 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0; Isaac Paredes: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=2; Jose Altuve: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1; Yainer Diaz: AB current=4 box=6, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=3; Jorge Barrosa: AB current=3 box=5, H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Christian Walker: AB current=4 box=6, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Cam Smith: AB current=3 box=5, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3	HOU
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	KC model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=45; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=3; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=12).	KC
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	KC current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Vinnie Pasquantino: AB current=4 box=6, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Carter Jensen: AB current=4 box=6, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Nick Loftin: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; John Rave: AB current=3 box=5, RBI current=0 box=1; Bobby Witt Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2; Salvador Perez: AB current=4 box=6, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Michael Massey: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Josh Rojas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1	KC
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

LAD@CINMISS

Predicted: LAD 8-4 (conf -0.16, moderate)Actual: CIN 2-6Brier 0.336total bias +4

Root cause: Backed the wrong side with real conviction

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.16 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 8; total bias +4
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -2.051, recent -1.758, pitcher -0.101, composite -2.509
confidence pipeline reached 0.743 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.420
score-volatility actions: supported_blowout_margin_expansion
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 4 (12 vs 8)
LAD offense over-projected by 6
committed to LAD at 0.16 confidence and it lost

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
LAD	Blake Snell	0 ER / 18 outs	0 ER / 3 outs	0
CIN	Andrew Abbott	1 ER / 13 outs	1 ER / 14 outs	0

Decision internals: run factors home×0.98 / away×1.081; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Freddie Freeman (LAD 1B): 0-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
Juan Brito (CIN RF): 3-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.94]
Elly De La Cruz (CIN SS): 1-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.93]
Will Smith (LAD C): 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.78]
Matt McLain (CIN 2B): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.78]

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Blake Snell (LAD) threw 3 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 0 ERA (0 ERA error) only 7 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 2 ER over 5 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 6 runs on 12 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 7 hits (2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Juan Brito: 3-for-3, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.94 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.292, below average - a good day, not a model error
Elly De La Cruz: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.378, elite - real projection error
Matt McLain: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.302, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

HOME pitching

Andrew Abbott (CIN) threw 14 outs, 1 ER = 1.93 ERA against a projected 2.08 ERA (-0.15 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 6 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 2 runs on 7 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (-3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Will Smith: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.377, elite - real projection error
Mookie Betts: 3-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.34 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.336, above average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
LAD	Blake Snell (Starter)	3 / 18	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 3	2.45	1 / 7	6.38	venue away: 1.62 vs 2.14 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 0.98 (weak) · 7 prior appearances this season
LAD	Alex Vesia (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	2 / 3	0 / 18 (-18.00)	0 / 2	1 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.45	0 / 0	1.14
LAD	Jack Dreyer (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 1	18 / 0 (+18.00)	2 / 0	3 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0.36	0 / 1	0.87
CIN	Andrew Abbott (Starter)	14 / 13	1.93 / 2.08	1 / 1	3 / 3	0 / 1	5 / 1	2.01	5 / 7	4.13	venue home: 4.64 vs 4.91 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.08 (strong) · 30 prior appearances this season
CIN	Brock Burke (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 5	0 / 10.8 (-10.80)	0 / 2	1 / 2	0 / 1	0 / 0	0.57	0 / 1	1.11
CIN	Emilio Pagán (Closer)	3 / 6	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 2	1 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0.3	3 / 0	1.08

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Freddie Freeman (1B)	LAD	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	3 / 1	-1.11	0.365 elite	bad day
Juan Brito (RF)	CIN	3 / 3	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.94	0.292 below average	good day
Elly De La Cruz (SS)	CIN	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 2	0.93	0.378 elite	projection too low
Will Smith (C)	LAD	4 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0.78	0.377 elite	projection too low
Matt McLain (2B)	CIN	4 / 3	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.78	0.302 below average	good day
Tyler Stephenson (DH)	CIN	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.64	0.33 above average	bad day
Dane Myers (CF)	CIN	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	0.6	0.313 average	no signal
Teoscar Hernández (DH)	LAD	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	-0.47	0.335 above average	—
Eugenio Suárez (3B)	CIN	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 2	-0.47	0.298 below average	—
JJ Bleday (LF)	CIN	4 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.339 elite	—
Mookie Betts (SS)	LAD	4 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0.34	0.336 above average	—
Kyle Tucker (RF)	LAD	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.33	0.33 above average	—
Tommy Edman (CF)	LAD	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.14	0.306 average	—
Miguel Rojas (2B)	LAD	1 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	-0.14	0.304 average	—
Sal Stewart (1B)	CIN	4 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.01	0.346 elite	—
Enrique Hernández (3B)	LAD	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.282 weak	—
Alex Call (LF)	LAD	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0	0.276 weak	—
Jose Trevino (C)	CIN	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.217 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-2.051	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-1.758	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.101	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-2.509	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	5.17-2.65	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-3	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	8-4	0.58	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	8-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	8-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	8-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	8-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	5.17-2.65	5-3	-0.522	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-3	8-4	2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	8-4	8-4	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	8-4	8-4	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	8-4	8-4	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	8-4	8-4	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
LAD	Blake Snell	pitcher / Starter	better	predicted_SO 3
LAD	Alex Call	batter / LF	better	predicted_RBI 2.82
LAD	Miguel Rojas	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_H 2.46
CIN	Dane Myers	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB 2.234
LAD	Alex Vesia	pitcher / Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	worse	predicted_SO -2
LAD	Teoscar Hernández	batter / DH	better	predicted_SO 1.946
CIN	Matt McLain	batter / 2B	better	predicted_RBI 1.75
LAD	Freddie Freeman	batter / 1B	better	predicted_RBI 1.55

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	CIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	CIN
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	LAD
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=7, sim=8).	CIN
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	CIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=37; H: current=7, sim=10; 2B: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=11, sim=10).	CIN
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	CIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tyler Stephenson: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Eugenio Suárez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Juan Brito: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0; Sal Stewart: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; JJ Bleday: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=2; Dane Myers: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Jose Trevino: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Matt McLain: H current=0 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1	CIN
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=40; H: current=8, sim=13; 2B: current=1, sim=4; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=8; R: current=5, sim=8; BB: current=4, sim=1; SO: current=6, sim=10).	LAD
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Tommy Edman: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Teoscar Hernández: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=3; Miguel Rojas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Freddie Freeman: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2; Mookie Betts: 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Will Smith: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0; Enrique Hernández: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Kyle Tucker: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0	LAD
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

MIA@ARIHIT

Predicted: MIA 7-5 (conf -0.11, moderate)Actual: MIA 4-3Brier 0.198total bias +5

Root cause: Right winner, wrong score

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.11 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 5; total bias +5
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.081, recent +0.002, pitcher +0.029, composite -0.252
confidence pipeline reached 0.564 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.445
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 5 (12 vs 7)
MIA offense over-projected by 3

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
MIA	Ryan Gusto	1 ER / 14 outs	2 ER / 13 outs	1
ARI	Merrill Kelly	3 ER / 16 outs	3 ER / 14 outs	0

Decision internals: run factors home×1.025 / away×0.997; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Jakob Marsee (MIA CF): 2-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.71]

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Ryan Gusto (MIA) threw 13 outs, 2 ER = 4.15 ERA against a projected 1.93 ERA (2.22 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 0 runs on 0 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 0 runs / 0 hits (0 runs vs projection).

No individual hitter beat his projection by a meaningful margin.

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

No settled pitching line for this club. The forecast named Merrill Kelly (ARI) at a projected 5.06 ERA, but the per-player feed carries no pitching row for him in this game, so the actual-versus-projected comparison cannot be made on this side. That is a source-coverage gap in the settled box, not a forecasting failure.

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 4 runs on 10 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 9 hits (-1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Jakob Marsee: 2-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+1.71 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.311, average - a good day, not a model error
Heriberto Hernández: 4-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.48 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.35, elite - a good day, not a model error
Otto Lopez: 2-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.327, above average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
MIA	Ryan Gusto (Starter)	13 / 14	4.15 / 1.93	2 / 1	8 / 1	2 / 0	1 / 4	1.91	4 / 5	3.34	venue away: 4.15 vs 4.19 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.03 (average) · 21 prior appearances this season

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Jakob Marsee (CF)	MIA	3 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1.71	0.311 average	no signal
Heriberto Hernández (LF)	MIA	5 / 4	4 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.48	0.35 elite	—
Griffin Conine (DH)	MIA	5 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	3 / 1	-0.47	0.361 elite	—
Otto Lopez (SS)	MIA	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.47	0.327 above average	—
Joe Mack (C)	MIA	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.287 below average	—
Xavier Edwards (2B)	MIA	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	-0.47	0.312 average	—
Javier Sanoja (3B)	MIA	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	-0.31	0.292 below average	—
Kyle Stowers (1B)	MIA	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	-0.31	0.324 above average	—
Esteury Ruiz (RF)	MIA	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	-0.14	0.283 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.081	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	0.002	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.029	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.252	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.83-3.7	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6-5	0.555	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	7-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	7-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	7-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	7-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.83-3.7	5-4	-0.129	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	6-5	-0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-5	7-5	1	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	7-5	7-5	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	7-5	7-5	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	7-5	7-5	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
ARI	Ketel Marte	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_AB -2.55
MIA	Kyle Stowers	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_RBI 2.49
MIA	Joe Mack	batter / C	better	predicted_RBI 2.45
ARI	Tim Tawa	batter / CF	worse	predicted_SO 2.129
ARI	Gabriel Moreno	batter / C	worse	predicted_AB -2.09
MIA	Javier Sanoja	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_SO 1.715
MIA	Esteury Ruiz	batter / RF	worse	predicted_AB 1.5
MIA	Otto Lopez	batter / SS	worse	predicted_SO 1.432

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	ARI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	ARI
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	MIA
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=6, sim=7).	ARI
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	ARI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=5; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=6, sim=9).	ARI
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	ARI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Lars Nootbaar: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Gabriel Moreno: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Ketel Marte: AB current=4 box=3, RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Jesús Sánchez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Corbin Carroll: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Tim Tawa: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=3; Geraldo Perdomo: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; Pavin Smith: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0	ARI
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=36; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=6, sim=8; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	MIA
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Griffin Conine: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Otto Lopez: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=2; Javier Sanoja: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Heriberto Hernández: BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Kyle Stowers: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Jakob Marsee: H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Joe Mack: HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Xavier Edwards: R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0	MIA
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

MIL@PITHIT

Predicted: MIL 5-3 (conf -0.12, moderate)Actual: MIL 5-4Brier 0.194total bias -1

Root cause: Strong correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.12 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 1; total bias -1
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -1.137, recent -0.930, pitcher +0.053, composite -1.101
confidence pipeline reached 0.667 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.440
score-volatility actions: supported_blowout_margin_expansion
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

No large single-factor errors.

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
MIL	Logan Henderson	1 ER / 18 outs	3 ER / 15 outs	2
PIT	Jared Jones	5 ER / 15 outs	3 ER / 15 outs	-2

Decision internals: run factors home×1.013 / away×0.96; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Bryan Reynolds (PIT DH): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
Oneil Cruz (PIT CF): 2-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.07]
Cooper Pratt (MIL SS): 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.94]
Jackson Chourio (MIL LF): 1-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -0.93]
Rafael Flores Jr. (PIT C): 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.93]

Starter miss: Logan Henderson (MIL) posted 5.40 ERA vs projected 1.50 (3 ER in 15 outs); he is materially worse pitching away (2.84 ERA there vs 1.84 on the other side), a venue-role weakness the model under-weighted.

What to do: Enable/raise the venue-split weight (context.venue_adjustment_weight) and validate in shadow; the split is credible for this starter.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Logan Henderson (MIL) threw 15 outs, 3 ER = 5.4 ERA against a projected 1.5 ERA (3.9 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 6 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 4 runs on 12 hits and 3 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (0 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Oneil Cruz: 2-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.07 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.355, elite - real projection error
Rafael Flores Jr.: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.344, elite - real projection error
Ronny Simon: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.317, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

HOME pitching

Jared Jones (PIT) threw 15 outs, 3 ER = 5.4 ERA against a projected 9 ERA (-3.6 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 3 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 5 runs on 10 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 6 runs / 8 hits (-1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Cooper Pratt: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.94 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.317, average - a good day, not a model error
Jake Bauers: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.64 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.38, elite - real projection error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
MIL	Logan Henderson (Starter)	15 / 18	5.4 / 1.5 (+3.90)	3 / 1	6 / 4	2 / 0	1 / 1	0.94	8 / 6	5.84	venue away: 2.84 vs 1.84 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.01 (average) · 16 prior appearances this season
MIL	Abner Uribe (Setup Man)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.37	0 / 1	1.04
MIL	Trevor Megill (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.29	2 / 0	1.13
PIT	Jared Jones (Starter)	15 / 15	5.4 / 9 (-3.60)	3 / 5	7 / 6	0 / 2	1 / 2	2.01	9 / 1	6.56	venue home: 4.6 vs 3.54 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.96 (strong) · 18 prior appearances this season
PIT	Yohan Ramírez (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.44	2 / 2	1.15

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Bryan Reynolds (DH)	PIT	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-1.11	0.355 elite	bad day
Oneil Cruz (CF)	PIT	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 2	1.07	0.355 elite	projection too low
Cooper Pratt (SS)	MIL	4 / 3	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.94	0.317 average	no signal
Jackson Chourio (LF)	MIL	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.93	0.339 elite	bad day
Rafael Flores Jr. (C)	PIT	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.93	0.344 elite	projection too low
Ronny Simon (RF)	PIT	4 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.78	0.317 average	no signal
Jake Bauers (RF)	MIL	3 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	2 / 1	0.64	0.38 elite	projection too low
Christian Yelich (DH)	MIL	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.64	0.312 average	no signal
Ryan O'Hearn (1B)	PIT	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.318 average	—
Brandon Lowe (2B)	PIT	3 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0.47	0.323 above average	—
Konnor Griffin (SS)	PIT	5 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.47	0.3 below average	—
William Contreras (C)	MIL	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.33	0.335 above average	—
Joey Ortiz (3B)	MIL	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 1	0	0.3 below average	—
Brice Turang (2B)	MIL	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0	0.347 elite	—
Andrew Vaughn (1B)	MIL	2 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.334 above average	—
Luis Lara (CF)	MIL	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.3 below average	—
Jacob Gonzalez (3B)	PIT	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.305 average	—
Jake Mangum (LF)	PIT	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.288 below average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-1.137	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.93	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.053	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-1.101	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.97-4.36	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-3	0.56	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-3	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-3	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-3	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-3	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.97-4.36	5-4	0.388	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	5-3	1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-3	5-3	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-3	5-3	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-3	5-3	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-3	5-3	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
PIT	Oneil Cruz	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB -1.89
MIL	Jackson Chourio	batter / LF	better	predicted_AB -1.69
MIL	Jake Bauers	batter / RF	better	predicted_RBI 1.372
MIL	William Contreras	batter / C	worse	predicted_RBI -1.37
PIT	Jacob Gonzalez	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_AB 1.333
PIT	Brandon Lowe	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_SO -1.27
PIT	Rafael Flores Jr.	batter / C	worse	predicted_H -1.21
MIL	Christian Yelich	batter / DH	worse	predicted_SO -1.132

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	MIL
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PIT pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	PIT
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=33; H: current=8, sim=6; HR: current=1, sim=2; R: current=6, sim=5; BB: current=4, sim=2; SO: current=9, sim=5).	MIL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Jake Bauers: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; William Contreras: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Joey Ortiz: R current=0 box=1; Brice Turang: BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jackson Chourio: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=2; Christian Yelich: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Andrew Vaughn: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0; Luis Lara: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0	MIL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PIT model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=7; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=5, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=2; SO: current=10, sim=7).	PIT
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PIT current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryan Reynolds: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Oneil Cruz: AB current=4 box=3, 3B current=0 box=1; Ryan O'Hearn: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Brandon Lowe: H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jacob Gonzalez: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1; Konnor Griffin: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Jake Mangum: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Ronny Simon: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0	PIT
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

NYY@MINMISS

Predicted: NYY 7-4 (conf -0.16, moderate)Actual: MIN 4-5Brier 0.336total bias +2

Root cause: Backed the wrong side with real conviction

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.16 (moderate); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 4; total bias +2
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -1.472, recent -1.350, pitcher -0.100, composite -1.907
confidence pipeline reached 0.691 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.420
score-volatility actions: supported_blowout_margin_expansion
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

NYY offense over-projected by 3
Zebby Matthews (MIN) allowed 3 fewer ER than projected (0 vs 3)
committed to NYY at 0.16 confidence and it lost

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
NYY	Carlos Rodón	3 ER / 17 outs	2 ER / 18 outs	-1
MIN	Zebby Matthews	3 ER / 17 outs	0 ER / 18 outs	-3

Decision internals: run factors home×1.005 / away×1.105; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Ryan Kreidler (MIN 2B): 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.73]
Ryan Jeffers (MIN C): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Aaron Judge (NYY RF): 0-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]
Luis García Jr. (NYY 1B): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.78]
Anthony Volpe (NYY 2B): 2-for-5, 0 HR, 2 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.78]

Starter miss: Zebby Matthews (MIN) posted 0.00 ERA vs projected 4.76 (0 ER in 18 outs); he faced a strong offense (opponent run factor 1.10, bucket strong).

What to do: Consider raising context.opponent_strength_weight; validate across the rolling window before promotion.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Carlos Rodón (NYY) threw 18 outs, 2 ER = 3 ERA against a projected 4.76 ERA (-1.76 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 13 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 8 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 7 hits (-1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Ryan Kreidler: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.73 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.288, below average - a good day, not a model error
Ben Ross: 1-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.16, weak - a good day, not a model error
Luke Keaschall: 3-for-5, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.61 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.319, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

HOME pitching

Zebby Matthews (MIN) threw 18 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 4.76 ERA (-4.76 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 2 ER over 8 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 7 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 8 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Anthony Volpe: 2-for-5, 0 HR, 2 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.299, below average - a good day, not a model error
Cody Bellinger: 3-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.63 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.342, elite - real projection error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
NYY	Carlos Rodón (Starter)	18 / 17	3 / 4.76	2 / 3	4 / 5	1 / 1	3 / 0	2.28	5 / 5	6.01	venue away: 3.2 vs 2.61 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1.01 (average) · 14 prior appearances this season
NYY	Brent Headrick (Setup Man)	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.42	2 / 0	1.34
NYY	David Bednar (Closer)	6 / 3	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 1	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.23	2 / 0	1.3
NYY	Paul Blackburn (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.47	0 / 1	0.93
MIN	Zebby Matthews (Starter)	18 / 17	0 / 4.76 (-4.76)	0 / 3	2 / 8	0 / 2	2 / 0	1.64	8 / 4	4.19	venue home: 2.84 vs 6.93 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.1 (strong) · 21 prior appearances this season
MIN	A.J. Minter (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 4	0 / 6.75 (-6.75)	0 / 1	2 / 2	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.19	2 / 1	0.9
MIN	Jeff Hoffman (Setup Man)	3 / 3	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.39	2 / 0	1.45
MIN	Yoendrys Gómez (Closer)	2 / 3	27 / 9 (+18.00)	2 / 1	3 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	0.61	2 / 1	0.9

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Ryan Kreidler (2B)	MIN	4 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	1.73	0.288 below average	good day
Ryan Jeffers (C)	MIN	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	3 / 1	-1.4	0.35 elite	bad day
Aaron Judge (RF)	NYY	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.8	0.396 elite	bad day
Luis García Jr. (1B)	NYY	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	3 / 1	-0.78	0.348 elite	bad day
Anthony Volpe (2B)	NYY	5 / 3	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.78	0.299 below average	good day
Ben Ross (SS)	MIN	2 / 2	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.78	0.16 weak	good day
Austin Martin (LF)	MIN	5 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.64	0.307 average	no signal
Josh Bell (DH)	MIN	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.64	0.333 above average	bad day
Cody Bellinger (LF)	NYY	5 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0.63	0.342 elite	projection too low
Luke Keaschall (RF)	MIN	5 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0.61	0.319 average	no signal
Spencer Jones (CF)	NYY	6 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	5 / 1	-0.47	0.329 above average	—
Ryan McMahon (3B)	NYY	6 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	4 / 1	-0.47	0.295 below average	—
Royce Lewis (3B)	MIN	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.311 average	—
Kody Clemens (1B)	MIN	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	2 / 1	0.33	0.336 above average	—
Ben Rice (DH)	NYY	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	3 / 1	1 / 1	-0.27	0.376 elite	—
Emmanuel Rodriguez (CF)	MIN	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.14	0.48 elite	—
George Lombard Jr. (SS)	NYY	6 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.276 weak	—
Austin Wells (C)	NYY	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.287 below average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-1.472	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-1.35	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.1	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-1.907	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.88-3.31	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-3	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6-4	0.58	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	7-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	7-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	7-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	7-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.88-3.31	5-3	0.424	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-3	6-4	-0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	6-4	7-4	1	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	7-4	7-4	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	7-4	7-4	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	7-4	7-4	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
NYY	Ryan McMahon	batter / 3B	better	predicted_RBI 2.69
MIN	Josh Bell	batter / DH	boosted	predicted_RBI 2.43
NYY	Carlos Rodón	pitcher / Starter	better	predicted_SO 2
NYY	Paul Blackburn	pitcher / Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	neutral	predicted_SO -2
MIN	Ben Ross	batter / SS	worse	predicted_SO -1.875
NYY	Spencer Jones	batter / CF	better	predicted_AB 1.27
NYY	Austin Wells	batter / C	worse	predicted_AB 1.179
NYY	Ben Rice	batter / DH	worse	predicted_SO -1.036

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	MIN pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	MIN
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	NYY pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	NYY
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (ER: current=6, sim=7).	MIN
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	MIN model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=7, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=1; BB: current=4, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=6).	MIN
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	MIN current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Luke Keaschall: RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Austin Martin: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Royce Lewis: H current=1 box=0; Kody Clemens: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Ryan Kreidler: H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1; Ben Ross: AB current=2 box=3, H current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Ryan Jeffers: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Emmanuel Rodriguez: RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1	MIN
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	NYY model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=38; H: current=8, sim=12; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=5, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=6).	NYY
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	NYY current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Aaron Judge: AB current=4 box=5, BB current=1 box=0; Cody Bellinger: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1; Ben Rice: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Luis García Jr.: RBI current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Spencer Jones: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Anthony Volpe: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; George Lombard Jr.: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1; Ryan McMahon: H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1	NYY
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

OAK@TBHIT

Predicted: TB 2-6 (conf +0.53, strong)Actual: TB 3-4Brier 0.054total bias +1

Root cause: Strong correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.53 (strong); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 3; total bias +1
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +1.633, recent +1.074, pitcher +0.045, composite +1.986
confidence pipeline reached 0.767 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.767
score-volatility actions: supported_blowout_margin_expansion
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

Brady Basso (OAK) allowed 3 more ER than projected (4 vs 1)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
OAK	Brady Basso	1 ER / 15 outs	4 ER / 8 outs	3
TB	Nick Martinez	0 ER / 17 outs	2 ER / 15 outs	2

Decision internals: run factors home×1.011 / away×0.966; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Tommy White (OAK 1B): 3-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.87]
Yandy Díaz (TB DH): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]
Junior Caminero (TB 3B): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -0.95]
Henry Bolte (OAK CF): 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.93]
Shea Langeliers (OAK DH): 1-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -0.93]

Starter miss: Brady Basso (OAK) posted 13.50 ERA vs projected 1.80 (4 ER in 8 outs); no credible venue, opponent-strength or experience signal explains it — an outlier start (variance).

What to do: Variance — no model change is warranted for this start.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Brady Basso (OAK) threw 8 outs, 4 ER = 13.5 ERA against a projected 1.8 ERA (11.7 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 9 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 4 runs on 9 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (0 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Chandler Simpson: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.265, weak - a good day, not a model error
Jonny DeLuca: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.266, weak - a good day, not a model error
Nick Madrigal: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.31 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.293, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

HOME pitching

Nick Martinez (TB) threw 15 outs, 2 ER = 3.6 ERA against a projected 0 ERA (3.6 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 1 ER over 9 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 8 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Tommy White: 3-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+1.87 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.296, below average - a good day, not a model error
Henry Bolte: 1-for-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI [+0.93 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.318, average - a good day, not a model error
Jeff McNeil: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.303, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: pitching: the starter gave up runs at a far worse rate than projected

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
OAK	Brady Basso (Starter)	8 / 15	13.5 / 1.8 (+11.70)	4 / 1	7 / 5	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.94	0 / 4	3.15	venue away: 5.62 vs 0 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.01 (average) · 23 prior appearances this season
OAK	Seth Johnson (Reliever)	7 / 3	0 / 18 (-18.00)	0 / 2	0 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	n/a	4 / 0	n/a
OAK	Hogan Harris (Reliever)	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	n/a	1 / 0	n/a
TB	Nick Martinez (Starter)	15 / 17	3.6 / 0 (+3.60)	2 / 0	5 / 2	2 / 0	0 / 0	0.71	3 / 4	3.04	venue home: 3.92 vs 1.99 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.97 (weak) · 28 prior appearances this season
TB	Cam Booser (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.12	1 / 2	0.82
TB	Kevin Kelly (Setup Man)	6 / 4	4.5 / 13.5 (-9.00)	1 / 2	3 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.12	4 / 0	0.76

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Tommy White (1B)	OAK	4 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1.87	0.296 below average	good day
Yandy Díaz (DH)	TB	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-1.11	0.35 elite	bad day
Junior Caminero (3B)	TB	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.95	0.363 elite	bad day
Henry Bolte (CF)	OAK	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.93	0.318 average	no signal
Shea Langeliers (DH)	OAK	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.93	0.362 elite	bad day
Donovan Walton (SS)	OAK	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	-0.8	0.332 above average	bad day
Carlos Cortes (LF)	OAK	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	-0.78	0.302 below average	projection too high
Chandler Simpson (LF)	TB	4 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.78	0.265 weak	good day
Jeff McNeil (2B)	OAK	3 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.47	0.303 below average	—
Zack Gelof (3B)	OAK	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.311 average	—
Jonny DeLuca (CF)	TB	4 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.47	0.266 weak	—
Lawrence Butler (RF)	OAK	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.33	0.321 above average	—
Nick Madrigal (2B)	TB	3 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.31	0.293 below average	—
Nick Fortes (C)	TB	2 / 3	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.31	0.276 weak	—
Brian Serven (C)	OAK	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.29 below average	—
Ryan Vilade (1B)	TB	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0	0.331 above average	—
Jorge Mateo (SS)	TB	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.284 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	1.633	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	1.074	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.045	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	1.986	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.74-4.57	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	5-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	2-6	0.767	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	2-6	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	2-6	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	2-6	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	2-6	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.74-4.57	5-5	0.166	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-5	2-6	4	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis
embedded_savant_run_environment	2-6	2-6	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	2-6	2-6	0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	2-6	2-6	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	2-6	2-6	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
OAK	Seth Johnson	pitcher / Reliever	worse	predicted_H 4
OAK	Brady Basso	pitcher / Starter	worse	predicted_IP -3
OAK	Chris Roycroft	pitcher / Reliever	worse	predicted_ER 3
TB	Victor Mesa Jr.	batter / RF	better	predicted_H 2.06
TB	Nick Fortes	batter / C	better	predicted_H 1.7
OAK	Donovan Walton	batter / SS	worse	predicted_SO 1.472
OAK	Tommy White	batter / 1B	worse	predicted_SO 1.364
TB	Jorge Mateo	batter / SS	worse	predicted_AB 1.329

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	OAK pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	OAK
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	TB pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	TB
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	OAK model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=2; R: current=4, sim=2; BB: current=2, sim=1; SO: current=6, sim=8; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	OAK
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	OAK current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Henry Bolte: 2B current=0 box=1, R current=1 box=0; Shea Langeliers: H current=1 box=2, HR current=1 box=0; Donovan Walton: H current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=2; Tommy White: H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Carlos Cortes: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=1 box=0; Lawrence Butler: BB current=1 box=0; Jeff McNeil: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Brian Serven: AB current=3 box=2, H current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1	OAK
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	TB model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=36; H: current=9, sim=12; 2B: current=2, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=4, sim=6; R: current=5, sim=6; SO: current=6, sim=4).	TB
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	TB current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Ryan Vilade: AB current=4 box=3, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Jonny DeLuca: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Nick Madrigal: R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Victor Mesa Jr.: H current=1 box=3, 3B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; Junior Caminero: AB current=4 box=5, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Chandler Simpson: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1; Yandy Díaz: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Nick Fortes: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1	TB
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

PHI@WASHIT

Predicted: PHI 5-4 (conf -0.02, toss_up)Actual: PHI 3-0Brier 0.24total bias +6

Root cause: Toss-up that went our way

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.02 (toss_up); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 6; total bias +6
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.191, recent -0.114, pitcher +0.002, composite -0.310
confidence pipeline reached 0.551 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.490
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

total runs over-projected by 6 (9 vs 3)
WAS offense over-projected by 4
Zack Wheeler (PHI) allowed 3 fewer ER than projected (0 vs 3)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
PHI	Zack Wheeler	3 ER / 17 outs	0 ER / 21 outs	-3
WAS	Jared Simpson	0 ER / 9 outs	2 ER / 1 outs	2

Decision internals: run factors home×1.002 / away×1; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

James Wood (WAS RF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.73]
Kyle Schwarber (PHI DH): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Luis Arraez (PHI 2B): 1-for-2, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.3]
Alec Bohm (PHI 1B): 2-for-2, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.15]
Justin Crawford (PHI CF): 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 0.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.11]

Starter miss: Jared Simpson (WAS) posted 54.00 ERA vs projected 0.00 (2 ER in 1 outs). Thin prior record (3 prior appearances this season): high projection uncertainty.

What to do: Reduce game confidence for starters the feed has little on (scale by prior appearances); prefer priors and validate any run-param change in shadow.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Zack Wheeler (PHI) threw 21 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 4.76 ERA (-4.76 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 3 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 0 runs on 4 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 7 hits (-4 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Daylen Lile: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.327, above average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Jared Simpson (WAS) threw 1 outs, 2 ER = 54 ERA against a projected 0 ERA (54 ERA error) only 3 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 8 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 5 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Luis Arraez: 1-for-2, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+1.3 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.306, average - a good day, not a model error
Alec Bohm: 2-for-2, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+1.15 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.328, above average - real projection error
Justin Crawford: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.11 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.289, below average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: both: the starter was hit hard AND the lineup underproduced

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
PHI	Zack Wheeler (Starter)	21 / 17	0 / 4.76 (-4.76)	0 / 3	4 / 4	0 / 0	1 / 4	2.56	5 / 5	6.3	venue away: 3.38 vs 2.86 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1 (strong) · 25 prior appearances this season
PHI	Jhoan Duran (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.12	2 / 0	1.29
WAS	Jared Simpson (Starter)	1 / 9	54 / 0 (+54.00)	2 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	4 / 2	0	0 / 5	3.32	opp run factor 1 (average) · thin sample: 3 prior appearances this season (high uncertainty)
WAS	Yovanny Cruz (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	2 / 4	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.64	0 / 1	0.82
WAS	Luis Perales (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	6 / 3	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	5 / 1	1.52	2 / 0	2.13

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
James Wood (RF)	WAS	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-1.73	0.412 elite	bad day
Kyle Schwarber (DH)	PHI	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	-1.4	0.365 elite	bad day
Luis Arraez (2B)	PHI	2 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	3 / 0	0 / 0	1.3	0.306 average	no signal
Alec Bohm (1B)	PHI	2 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	3 / 0	0 / 0	1.15	0.328 above average	projection too low
Justin Crawford (CF)	PHI	3 / 3	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	1.11	0.289 below average	good day
Jorbit Vivas (3B)	WAS	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.8	0.292 below average	projection too high
Keibert Ruiz (C)	WAS	2 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-0.78	0.289 below average	projection too high
Brandon Marsh (LF)	PHI	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	-0.47	0.302 below average	—
Daylen Lile (LF)	WAS	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.327 above average	—
Trea Turner (SS)	PHI	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.45	0.291 below average	—
CJ Abrams (2B)	WAS	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.33	0.33 above average	—
Bryson Stott (3B)	PHI	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 1	-0.14	0.327 above average	—
J.T. Realmuto (C)	PHI	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	2 / 1	-0.14	0.323 above average	—
Abimelec Ortiz (1B)	WAS	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	-0.14	0.284 weak	—
Bryce Harper (RF)	PHI	4 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0	0.385 elite	—
Dylan Crews (CF)	WAS	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.312 average	—
Nasim Nuñez (SS)	WAS	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0	0.268 weak	—
José Tena (DH)	WAS	4 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 1	0	0.293 below average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.191	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.114	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	0.002	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.31	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	5.55-3.45	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	6-3	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	0.51	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by opposing_starter_is_elite, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	5.55-3.45	6-3	0.901	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6-3	5-4	-2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by opposing_starter_is_elite, starter_quality_favours_the_other_side, projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	5-4	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	5-4	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	5-4	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	5-4	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
WAS	Abimelec Ortiz	batter / 1B	deboosted	predicted_RBI 2.82
PHI	J.T. Realmuto	batter / C	worse	predicted_AB -2.08
PHI	Brandon Marsh	batter / LF	better	predicted_RBI 1.71
WAS	Nasim Nuñez	batter / SS	worse	predicted_BB 1.63
WAS	Keibert Ruiz	batter / C	better	predicted_SO 1.617
WAS	José Tena	batter / DH	worse	predicted_AB 1.5
PHI	Kyle Schwarber	batter / DH	deboosted	predicted_SO -1.469
PHI	Justin Crawford	batter / CF	better	predicted_SO 1.436

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	PHI pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	PHI
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	WAS pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	WAS
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	PHI model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=8, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=3; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=9; HBP: current=0, sim=2).	PHI
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	PHI current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryce Harper: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Alec Bohm: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Bryson Stott: AB current=4 box=3, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; Luis Arraez: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=0 box=1; J.T. Realmuto: AB current=3 box=2, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Trea Turner: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, HBP current=0 box=1; Kyle Schwarber: AB current=4 box=5, HR current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Brandon Marsh: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, R current=0 box=1	PHI
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	WAS model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (H: current=7, sim=5; 2B: current=2, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=0; RBI: current=5, sim=4; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=9, sim=5).	WAS
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	WAS current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: CJ Abrams: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Daylen Lile: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; James Wood: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Dylan Crews: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Abimelec Ortiz: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=3, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Nasim Nuñez: AB current=3 box=2, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=2, SO current=1 box=0; José Tena: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=1 box=0; Jorbit Vivas: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	WAS
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

SD@COLHIT

Predicted: SD 7-5 (conf -0.06, lean)Actual: SD 9-3Brier 0.221total bias +0

Root cause: Solid correct call

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.06 (lean); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 4; total bias +0
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -1.282, recent -1.166, pitcher -0.001, composite -1.358
confidence pipeline reached 0.637 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.470
score-volatility actions: supported_blowout_margin_expansion
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

No large single-factor errors.

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
SD	Robbie Ray	4 ER / 15 outs	3 ER / 18 outs	-1
COL	Mason Adams	5 ER / 14 outs	6 ER / 13 outs	1

Decision internals: run factors home×0.996 / away×0.997; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Ethan Salas (SD C): 2-for-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 2.33]
Cole Carrigg (COL CF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.73]
Dustin Harris (SD RF): 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.42]
Manny Machado (SD 3B): 1-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.26]
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD DH): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -1.11]

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Robbie Ray (SD) threw 18 outs, 3 ER = 4.5 ERA against a projected 7.2 ERA (-2.7 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 3 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 3 runs on 4 hits and 1 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 9 hits (-1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Kyle Karros: 1-for-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI [+0.62 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.342, elite - real projection error
Jordan Beck: 1-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.254, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Mason Adams (COL) threw 13 outs, 6 ER = 12.46 ERA against a projected 9.64 ERA (2.82 ERA error) only 4 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 9 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 9 runs on 13 hits and 2 HR, against a projected 5 runs / 9 hits (4 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Ethan Salas: 2-for-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI [+2.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.178, weak - a good day, not a model error
Dustin Harris: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+1.42 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.336, above average - real projection error
Jackson Merrill: 3-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.63 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.349, elite - real projection error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
SD	Robbie Ray (Starter)	18 / 15	4.5 / 7.2	3 / 4	3 / 5	1 / 1	2 / 3	2.96	6 / 4	3.91	venue away: 4.35 vs 3.2 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 1 (average) · 29 prior appearances this season
SD	Yuki Matsui (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0.45	1 / 1	0.98
COL	Mason Adams (Starter)	13 / 14	12.46 / 9.64	6 / 5	8 / 5	1 / 1	3 / 1	2.33	1 / 4	5.59	venue home: 5.79 vs 2.57 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1 (average) · thin sample: 4 prior appearances this season (high uncertainty)
COL	Jimmy Herget (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	6 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.54	0 / 0	0.89
COL	Juan Mejia (Middle Reliever)	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.72	3 / 0	0.95

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Ethan Salas (C)	SD	4 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	3 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2.33	0.178 weak	good day
Cole Carrigg (CF)	COL	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.73	0.313 average	no signal
Dustin Harris (RF)	SD	4 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	1.42	0.336 above average	projection too low
Manny Machado (3B)	SD	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.26	0.334 above average	bad day
Fernando Tatis Jr. (DH)	SD	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-1.11	0.376 elite	bad day
Jackson Merrill (CF)	SD	5 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.63	0.349 elite	projection too low
Kyle Karros (3B)	COL	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	0.62	0.342 elite	projection too low
Jake Cronenworth (2B)	SD	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0.47	0.269 weak	—
Samad Taylor (LF)	SD	4 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.307 average	—
Adael Amador (DH)	COL	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 0	-0.47	0.257 weak	—
Troy Johnston (1B)	COL	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	-0.47	0.325 above average	—
Jake McCarthy (LF)	COL	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	-0.45	0.326 above average	—
Jordan Beck (RF)	COL	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.33	0.254 weak	—
Ty France (1B)	SD	4 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.31	0.333 above average	—
Xander Bogaerts (SS)	SD	2 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	2 / 1	0 / 1	-0.14	0.32 average	—
Braxton Fulford (C)	COL	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 1	-0.14	0.208 weak	—
Connor Norby (2B)	COL	3 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.02	0.307 average	—
Ezequiel Tovar (SS)	COL	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.28 weak	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-1.282	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-1.166	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.001	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-1.358	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	5.53-4.87	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	6-5	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	7-5	0.53	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	7-5	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	7-5	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	7-5	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	7-5	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	5.53-4.87	6-5	0.335	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	6-5	7-5	1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	7-5	7-5	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	7-5	7-5	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	7-5	7-5	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	7-5	7-5	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
SD	Ethan Salas	batter / C	worse	predicted_H 2.87
COL	Adael Amador	batter / DH	deboosted	predicted_RBI 2.294
SD	Jackson Merrill	batter / CF	better	predicted_RBI 2.09
COL	Braxton Fulford	batter / C	worse	predicted_AB 1.5
COL	Jake McCarthy	batter / LF	worse	predicted_AB -1.32
SD	Manny Machado	batter / 3B	better	predicted_RBI 1.31
SD	Xander Bogaerts	batter / SS	better	predicted_H 1.21
SD	Jake Cronenworth	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_H 1.21

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	COL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	COL
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SD pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	SD
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=10, sim=12; ER: current=6, sim=7).	COL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	COL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=33; H: current=9, sim=6; 2B: current=2, sim=1; R: current=4, sim=5).	COL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	COL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Cole Carrigg: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Adael Amador: AB current=4 box=3, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3, BB current=0 box=1; Troy Johnston: AB current=3 box=4, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=1; Jordan Beck: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Braxton Fulford: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Connor Norby: AB current=4 box=3, H current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Jake McCarthy: H current=1 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2; Kyle Karros: 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0	COL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SD model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=38; H: current=9, sim=12; RBI: current=5, sim=7; R: current=5, sim=7; BB: current=3, sim=1; SO: current=8, sim=5; SF: current=0, sim=1).	SD
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SD current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Fernando Tatis Jr.: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Dustin Harris: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1; Xander Bogaerts: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Jackson Merrill: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=1 box=3; Manny Machado: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=1 box=0; Ty France: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Jake Cronenworth: H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1; Samad Taylor: RBI current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0, SF current=0 box=1	SD
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

SEA@LAAHIT

Predicted: SEA 5-4 (conf -0.01, toss_up)Actual: SEA 7-2Brier 0.245total bias +0

Root cause: Toss-up that went our way

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.01 (toss_up); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 4; total bias +0
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season -0.108, recent -0.014, pitcher -0.075, composite -0.407
confidence pipeline reached 0.508 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.495
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 7 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

No large single-factor errors.

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
SEA	George Kirby	1 ER / 17 outs	2 ER / 13 outs	1
LAA	Yusei Kikuchi	4 ER / 14 outs	4 ER / 13 outs	0

Decision internals: run factors home×0.961 / away×1.036; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Denzer Guzman (LAA 3B): 4-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.41]
Julio Rodríguez (SEA CF): 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 1.11]
Taylor Ward (SEA RF): 0-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]
Moisés Ballesteros (LAA C): 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.8]
Cal Raleigh (SEA C): 2-for-3, 0 HR, 3 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.78]

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

George Kirby (SEA) threw 13 outs, 2 ER = 4.15 ERA against a projected 1.59 ERA (2.56 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 5 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 2 runs on 10 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (-2 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Denzer Guzman: 4-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.41 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.264, weak - a good day, not a model error
Moisés Ballesteros: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.8 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.3, below average - a good day, not a model error
Adam Frazier: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.261, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Yusei Kikuchi (LAA) threw 13 outs, 4 ER = 8.31 ERA against a projected 7.71 ERA (0.6 ERA error) only 11 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 0 ER over 0 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 7 runs on 9 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (3 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Julio Rodríguez: 2-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+1.11 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.335, above average - real projection error
Cal Raleigh: 2-for-3, 0 HR, 3 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.313, average - a good day, not a model error
Josh Naylor: 2-for-5, 0 HR, 2 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.313, average - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: offense: the lineup scored well below its projection

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
SEA	George Kirby (Starter)	13 / 17	4.15 / 1.59	2 / 1	5 / 6	0 / 1	5 / 1	1.61	5 / 6	4.75	venue away: 5.53 vs 3.27 ERA (worse here) · opp run factor 0.96 (weak) · 28 prior appearances this season
SEA	Andrés Muñoz (Closer)	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.49	1 / 0	1.47
SEA	José A. Ferrer (Setup Man)	2 / 2	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.25	1 / 2	0.57
LAA	Yusei Kikuchi (Starter)	13 / 14	8.31 / 7.71	4 / 4	5 / 4	0 / 1	5 / 2	1.91	4 / 6	5.14	venue home: 3 vs 5.66 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.04 (weak) · 11 prior appearances this season

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Denzer Guzman (3B)	LAA	5 / 4	4 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1.41	0.264 weak	good day
Julio Rodríguez (CF)	SEA	4 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	1.11	0.335 above average	projection too low
Taylor Ward (RF)	SEA	5 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	3 / 1	-0.8	0.333 above average	bad day
Moisés Ballesteros (C)	LAA	3 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.8	0.3 below average	good day
Cal Raleigh (C)	SEA	3 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 1	1 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	0.78	0.313 average	no signal
Josh Naylor (1B)	SEA	5 / 4	2 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.78	0.313 average	no signal
Vaughn Grissom (1B)	LAA	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.78	0.306 average	no signal
Randy Arozarena (LF)	SEA	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	3 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	-0.6	0.346 elite	bad day
Cole Young (2B)	SEA	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	2 / 1	-0.47	0.314 average	—
Wade Meckler (LF)	LAA	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 1	-0.47	0.313 average	—
Christian Moore (DH)	LAA	4 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	3 / 1	-0.47	0.222 weak	—
Adam Frazier (2B)	LAA	4 / 3	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0.47	0.261 weak	—
Zach Neto (SS)	LAA	3 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 2	-0.46	0.311 average	—
Dominic Canzone (DH)	SEA	3 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 1	0.35	0.353 elite	—
J.P. Crawford (SS)	SEA	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.33	0.323 above average	—
Weston Wilson (3B)	SEA	3 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 1	0.33	0.264 weak	—
Mike Trout (CF)	LAA	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	-0.14	0.378 elite	—
Josh Lowe (RF)	LAA	3 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.288 below average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	-0.108	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.014	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.075	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.407	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	4.22-4.02	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	0.505	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	4.22-4.02	4-4	-0.201	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-4	5-4	1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	5-4	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	5-4	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	5-4	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	5-4	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
SEA	Cal Raleigh	batter / C	worse	predicted_AB -2.39
LAA	Moisés Ballesteros	batter / C	better	predicted_AB 1.968
LAA	Wade Meckler	batter / LF	worse	predicted_AB 1.84
SEA	J.P. Crawford	batter / SS	better	predicted_RBI 1.57
LAA	Denzer Guzman	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_AB -1.522
LAA	Adam Frazier	batter / 2B	worse	predicted_AB 1.5
SEA	Julio Rodríguez	batter / CF	worse	predicted_AB -1.41
LAA	Josh Lowe	batter / RF	better	predicted_H 1.392

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	LAA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	LAA
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SEA pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	SEA
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	LAA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=33, sim=35; H: current=8, sim=9; 2B: current=1, sim=3; 3B: current=0, sim=1; HR: current=1, sim=2; BB: current=3, sim=4; SO: current=10, sim=9; SF: current=0, sim=1).	LAA
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	LAA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Wade Meckler: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0; Vaughn Grissom: 2B current=1 box=0, HR current=0 box=1, BB current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=0; Moisés Ballesteros: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, HR current=0 box=1; Josh Lowe: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1; Christian Moore: H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Adam Frazier: AB current=3 box=4, H current=0 box=1, 2B current=0 box=1; Mike Trout: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, BB current=1 box=0; Denzer Guzman: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1	LAA
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SEA model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=34, sim=32; H: current=8, sim=5; 2B: current=1, sim=3; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; BB: current=4, sim=3; SO: current=9, sim=11).	SEA
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SEA current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Randy Arozarena: RBI current=1 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Cal Raleigh: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1; J.P. Crawford: 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=2, BB current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Taylor Ward: AB current=3 box=4, 2B current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Dominic Canzone: H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Julio Rodríguez: H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Cole Young: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Josh Naylor: H current=1 box=2, 2B current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=1, R current=0 box=1	SEA
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

SF@STLHIT

Predicted: SF 5-4 (conf -0.03, toss_up)Actual: SF 6-5Brier 0.237total bias -2

Root cause: Toss-up that went our way

Evidence-backed diagnosis

published system edge 0.03 (toss_up); this is not the half-scale distance from 50%
team-run absolute error 2; total bias -2
pregame home-minus-away evidence: season +0.240, recent -0.454, pitcher -0.068, composite -0.311
confidence pipeline reached 0.527 before later publication/recency controls; published home probability was 0.486
score-volatility actions: no_change
forecast-file integrity: clean (0 defects, 8 informational note(s)); the saved artifact is not why the pick missed

Quantified contributing factors

Matthew Liberatore (STL) allowed 3 fewer ER than projected (1 vs 4)

Team	Starter	Projected	Actual	ER err
SF	Anthony Molina	2 ER / 14 outs	0 ER / 17 outs	-2
STL	Matthew Liberatore	4 ER / 15 outs	1 ER / 18 outs	-3

Decision internals: run factors home×1.022 / away×1.089; savant lineup adjustment applied

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Every value is actual / projected. Run impact approximates how far each hitter's real line moved run expectancy from its projection; it orders the movers and is not a published stat.

Top deviations that drove the game:

Joshua Baez (STL LF): 0-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.4]
Bryce Eldridge (SF 1B): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 1.0 HR) [run impact -1.07]
Andrew Knizner (SF C): 3-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.94]
Jonah Cox (SF CF): 3-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact 0.94]
JJ Wetherholt (STL 2B): 0-for-3, 0 HR, 0 RBI (projected 1.0 H, 0.0 HR) [run impact -0.8]

Starter miss: Matthew Liberatore (STL) posted 1.50 ERA vs projected 7.20 (1 ER in 18 outs); he faced a strong offense (opponent run factor 1.09, bucket weak).

What to do: Consider raising context.opponent_strength_weight; validate across the rolling window before promotion.

Pitcher versus batter: what actually broke this game

AWAY pitching

Anthony Molina (SF) threw 17 outs, 0 ER = 0 ERA against a projected 3.86 ERA (-3.86 ERA error) only 7 prior appearances in the covered season - the projection had little of his own record to stand on

Bullpen behind him: 2 ER over 8 outs.

The HOME lineup he faced produced 5 runs on 5 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (1 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Nathan Church: 2-for-5, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.47 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.289, below average - a good day, not a model error
Pedro Pagés: 0-for-2, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.33 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.267, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

HOME pitching

Matthew Liberatore (STL) threw 18 outs, 1 ER = 1.5 ERA against a projected 7.2 ERA (-5.7 ERA error)

Bullpen behind him: 1 ER over 9 outs.

The AWAY lineup he faced produced 4 runs on 12 hits and 0 HR, against a projected 4 runs / 8 hits (0 runs vs projection).

Who did the damage to him:

Andrew Knizner: 3-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.94 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.299, below average - a good day, not a model error
Jonah Cox: 3-for-4, 0 HR, 1 RBI [+0.94 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.273, weak - a good day, not a model error
Scott Bandura: 1-for-4, 0 HR, 0 RBI [+0.78 runs vs projection] season xwOBA 0.136, weak - a good day, not a model error

Verdict: neither side broke materially - the result is closer to variance

Pitcher	Team	Outs	ERA	ER	H	HR	BB	exp BB	SO	exp SO	Context (as-of)
SF	Anthony Molina (Starter)	17 / 14	0 / 3.86 (-3.86)	0 / 2	2 / 4	0 / 1	1 / 3	0.96	6 / 6	6.08	venue away: 2.7 vs 21 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.02 (average) · 7 prior appearances this season
SF	Carson Seymour (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	2 / 3	0 / 9 (-9.00)	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	0.61	0 / 1	0.77
SF	Dylan Smith (Closer)	2 / 6	27 / 0 (+27.00)	2 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	2 / 0	0.49	1 / 2	1.07
SF	Trent Harris (Setup Man)	4 / 0	0 / n/a	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.31	2 / 0	1.29
STL	Matthew Liberatore (Starter)	18 / 15	1.5 / 7.2 (-5.70)	1 / 4	6 / 6	0 / 1	3 / 0	1.56	2 / 7	5.9	venue home: 5.77 vs 5.27 ERA (ok) · opp run factor 1.09 (weak) · 29 prior appearances this season
STL	Justin Bruihl (Middle Reliever (High Leverage))	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.31	0 / 1	0.87
STL	Riley O'Brien (Closer)	3 / 3	9 / 9	1 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 0	0.48	0 / 0	1.14
STL	Gordon Graceffo (Middle Reliever)	4 / 0	0 / n/a	0 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0.61	1 / 1	1.75

Hitters: actual / projected (sorted by run impact vs projection)

Batter	Team	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	R	BB	SO	Run impact	Season xwOBA	Signal
Joshua Baez (LF)	STL	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	-1.4	0.303 below average	projection too high
Bryce Eldridge (1B)	SF	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 1	1 / 1	-1.07	0.359 elite	bad day
Andrew Knizner (C)	SF	4 / 3	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.94	0.299 below average	good day
Jonah Cox (CF)	SF	4 / 4	3 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	1 / 1	0.94	0.273 weak	good day
JJ Wetherholt (2B)	STL	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	1 / 1	-0.8	0.35 elite	bad day
Scott Bandura (RF)	SF	4 / 3	1 / 0	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.78	0.136 weak	good day
Shay Whitcomb (2B)	SF	5 / 4	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0.47	0.268 weak	—
Nathan Church (CF)	STL	5 / 3	2 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	0.47	0.289 below average	—
Jung Hoo Lee (DH)	SF	4 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 0	-0.45	0.315 average	—
Turner Hill (LF)	SF	5 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	0 / 1	-0.33	0.328 above average	—
Leonardo Bernal (DH)	STL	5 / 4	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 1	2 / 1	-0.33	0.378 elite	—
Alec Burleson (1B)	STL	5 / 4	1 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	0 / 1	2 / 0	-0.33	0.376 elite	—
Pedro Pagés (C)	STL	2 / 3	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	1 / 1	0.33	0.267 weak	—
Nolan Gorman (3B)	STL	3 / 3	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 1	0.19	0.279 weak	—
Jordan Walker (RF)	STL	3 / 4	0 / 1	0 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 1	1 / 1	2 / 0	2 / 1	-0.12	0.344 elite	—
Christian Koss (SS)	SF	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.257 weak	—
Brett Harris (3B)	SF	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.293 below average	—
Thomas Saggese (SS)	STL	4 / 3	1 / 1	0 / 0	0 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 0	2 / 0	0 / 0	1 / 1	0	0.319 average	—

Full model trace, player evidence, and audit findings

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Signal	Home-away edge	Meaning
Season quality	0.24	positive favors home; negative favors away
Recent form	-0.454	positive favors home; negative favors away
Starting-pitcher matchup	-0.068	positive favors home; negative favors away
Composite	-0.311	positive favors home; negative favors away

Score and confidence evolution

Stage	Away-home runs	Confidence	What changed
historical_ml	3.87-4.36	n/a	Base ML historical model prediction
variance_applied	4-4	n/a	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	5-4	0.514	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	n/a	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	n/a	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	n/a	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	n/a	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Official postgame stage attribution

Stage	Before	After	Toward final pick	What changed
variance_applied	3.87-4.36	4-4	0.49	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
enhanced_prediction	4-4	5-4	1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by winner_starter_is_below_average, projected_margin_is_one_run)
embedded_savant_run_environment	5-4	5-4	-0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
fundamental_edge_target_review	5-4	5-4	-0	Refreshed score target and win probability after Savant/pitcher/team-strength adjustments
capped_target	5-4	5-4	-0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
simulation_result	5-4	5-4	-0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

These are pregame model adjustments, not claims about actual postgame player error.

Team	Player	Role	Net effect	Largest change
STL	Matthew Liberatore	pitcher / Starter	worse	predicted_H 3
STL	Riley O'Brien	pitcher / Closer	better	predicted_H -3
SF	Andrew Knizner	batter / C	better	predicted_RBI 2.73
SF	Brett Harris	batter / 3B	worse	predicted_AB 2.5
SF	Shay Whitcomb	batter / 2B	better	predicted_AB 2.375
STL	Jordan Walker	batter / RF	worse	predicted_AB -2.29
SF	Scott Bandura	batter / RF	better	predicted_SO -2.083
SF	Bryce Eldridge	batter / 1B	better	predicted_H 2.019

Structural audit findings

Severity	Rule	Finding	Subject
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	SF pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	SF
info	CURRENT_PITCHER_DUPLICATION	STL pitcher list appears in both predicted_performance.pitchers and player_predictions_by_position.pitchers; IDs match and were de-duplicated in this audit.	STL
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model pitcher projections differ from final simulation pitching box score (H: current=7, sim=8; BB: current=4, sim=5).	SF
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	SF model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=31, sim=37; H: current=8, sim=7; HR: current=1, sim=2; RBI: current=4, sim=5; R: current=4, sim=5; SO: current=8, sim=12; HBP: current=0, sim=1).	SF
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	SF current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: Bryce Eldridge: H current=1 box=3, SO current=1 box=0; Jung Hoo Lee: AB current=4 box=5, R current=0 box=1, SO current=0 box=2; Shay Whitcomb: AB current=4 box=5, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Turner Hill: AB current=3 box=4, R current=0 box=1, BB current=1 box=0; Scott Bandura: AB current=3 box=4, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=0; Christian Koss: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0, SO current=1 box=2; Andrew Knizner: AB current=3 box=4, HR current=0 box=1, RBI current=0 box=3, R current=0 box=1; Jonah Cox: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0	SF
info	CURRENT_FINALIZED_MATCH_BOX	STL model-prediction batting totals differ from final simulation box score (AB: current=32, sim=37; 2B: current=2, sim=0; HR: current=1, sim=3; BB: current=3, sim=5; SO: current=7, sim=10; SF: current=0, sim=1).	STL
info	CURRENT_PLAYER_MATCH_BOX	STL current finalized hitter lines are model predictions and differ from the simulation box score: JJ Wetherholt: H current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Leonardo Bernal: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, HR current=0 box=2, RBI current=1 box=2; Joshua Baez: H current=1 box=0, HR current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0, R current=1 box=0; Thomas Saggese: AB current=3 box=5, H current=1 box=2, R current=0 box=1, SO current=1 box=2; Nolan Gorman: AB current=3 box=4, H current=1 box=0, BB current=0 box=1; Jordan Walker: AB current=4 box=2, H current=1 box=0, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Alec Burleson: AB current=4 box=5, H current=1 box=2, 2B current=1 box=0, RBI current=1 box=0; Nathan Church: AB current=3 box=4, SO current=0 box=1	STL
info	RECONCILIATION_PROPAGATION	No score_target_reconciliation step was used for this game.

Cross-game lever tension

Each candidate fix, and exactly which games it would help versus hurt. A lever that repairs one game and breaks two is visible here before it is proposed.

Day over day: did it improve or worsen

Compared against packet 20260915. Last recorded change: v4.30.0 (2026-09-08) Hitter shrinkage is derived from the between-hitter spread rather than fitted to slate error, so an established extreme profile is no longer flattened toward the league.

Metric	Prior	Current	Δ	Result
brier_score	0.2426	0.2391	-0.003503	improved
accuracy	0.6	0.6167	+0.0167	improved
team_run_mae	2.5542	2.5458	-0.0084	improved
total_run_mae	3.7917	3.625	-0.1667	improved
calibration_error	0.084	0.085	+0.001	regressed
starter_er_mae	1.7739	1.7333	-0.0406	improved
starter_outs_mae	3.2874	3.2292	-0.0582	improved

Deep slate report — 20260916

Process, end to end

Slate summary

What drove the losses

Source coverage receipt

High-level causal issue register

Cross-slate trends (persistent-pattern memory)

Escalated persistent patterns

Finding streaks across the window

Metric direction across the window

Pipeline stage regression

Probability lineage and calibration

Score distribution and margin compression

Per-game evidence coverage

Every game, in depth (15)

ATL@CHCHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

BAL@NYMMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

BOS@TEXMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

CHW@CLEHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

DET@TORMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

KC@HOUHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

LAD@CINMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

MIA@ARIHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

MIL@PITHIT

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)

Fundamental evidence entering the pick

Score and confidence evolution

Official postgame stage attribution

Largest player-level adjustments from the ultra-detailed trace

Structural audit findings

NYY@MINMISS

Player-level breakdown (projected vs actual)