Each game expands to show the four forecast stages, the gates, the club-level KPI edges the model consumed and both lineups with their strongest readings. Composite z averages a hitter's KPI standard scores; a positive number means above the qualified-population mean on balance.
| Stage | Away runs | Home runs | Home win | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Production baseline | 3.000 | 4.000 | 0.548 | what the system would have published |
| KPI-only forecast | 1.147 | 6.664 | 0.953 | 44 KPI features alone, no baseline input |
| Blended | 2.370 | 5.012 | 0.548 | at the fitted weights |
| Published | 2 | 4 | 0.548 | after rounding and reconciliation |
| Actual | 1 | 2 | - | official final |
| KPI | LAD | MIL | Edge (H-A) | A spread | H spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| batter_barrel_rate_vs_breaking | +0.097 | +0.057 | -0.040 | 0.4889 | 0.9061 |
| batter_barrel_rate_vs_fastball | +0.714 | +0.136 | -0.578 | 0.9765 | 0.89 |
| batter_barrel_rate_vs_lhp | +0.543 | -0.169 | -0.712 | 0.7364 | 0.8995 |
| batter_barrel_rate_vs_offspeed | +0.563 | -0.163 | -0.726 | 0.9112 | 0.8439 |
| batter_barrel_rate_vs_rhp | +0.508 | +0.238 | -0.270 | 0.8608 | 0.8897 |
| batter_bat_speed | -0.044 | +0.409 | +0.454 | 0.5743 | 0.984 |
| batter_contact_rate_vs_breaking | +0.040 | +0.463 | +0.423 | 0.938 | 0.7367 |
| batter_contact_xwoba | +0.743 | +0.485 | -0.257 | 0.932 | 1.0431 |
| batter_contact_xwoba_vs_breaking | +0.253 | +0.357 | +0.104 | 0.706 | 1.1325 |
| batter_contact_xwoba_vs_fastball | +0.921 | +0.476 | -0.445 | 0.9863 | 0.9615 |
| batter_exit_velocity_vs_fastball | +0.691 | +0.605 | -0.086 | 0.6196 | 0.7812 |
| batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball | +0.469 | -0.663 | -1.132 | 0.9761 | 0.4606 |
| batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_slider | +0.794 | -0.428 | -1.222 | 0.7713 | 1.1727 |
| batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking | +0.057 | +0.453 | +0.396 | 0.8243 | 1.0148 |
| batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball | +0.647 | +0.562 | -0.085 | 0.6787 | 0.8581 |
| batter_home_run_rate | +0.501 | -0.273 | -0.774 | 0.7247 | 0.8246 |
| batter_strikeout_rate | +0.350 | -0.025 | -0.375 | 0.843 | 0.8627 |
| batter_walk_rate | +0.565 | +0.637 | +0.072 | 0.647 | 0.9306 |
| batter_whiff_rate_vs_breaking | +0.205 | +0.129 | -0.076 | 0.9208 | 0.636 |
| batter_whiff_rate_vs_fastball | +0.210 | +0.072 | -0.138 | 0.8853 | 0.8482 |
| batter_whiff_rate_vs_lhp | +0.204 | +0.333 | +0.129 | 1.2129 | 0.6944 |
| batter_whiff_rate_vs_offspeed | +0.141 | -0.011 | -0.152 | 0.8713 | 1.0516 |
| batter_whiff_rate_vs_rhp | +0.176 | -0.000 | -0.177 | 0.8549 | 0.8387 |
| pitcher_barrel_rate_allowed | +0.652 | +2.709 | +2.058 | - | - |
| pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_lhh | +0.668 | +2.195 | +1.526 | - | - |
| pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_rhh | +0.339 | +1.785 | +1.446 | - | - |
| pitcher_contact_xwoba_allowed | +0.128 | +1.598 | +1.470 | - | - |
| pitcher_ground_ball_rate_induced | +0.396 | +0.239 | -0.157 | - | - |
| pitcher_hard_hit_rate_allowed | +1.153 | +1.597 | +0.444 | - | - |
| pitcher_home_run_rate_allowed | +0.877 | +1.371 | +0.494 | - | - |
| pitcher_release_speed | +1.233 | +3.401 | +2.168 | - | - |
| pitcher_strikeout_rate | +1.642 | +3.341 | +1.699 | - | - |
| pitcher_walk_rate | +2.200 | +1.016 | -1.184 | - | - |
| pitcher_whiff_rate | +1.568 | +2.911 | +1.343 | - | - |
| pitcher_whiff_rate_breaking | -0.292 | +0.956 | +1.249 | - | - |
| pitcher_whiff_rate_fastball | +0.971 | +4.000 | +3.030 | - | - |
| pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_lhh | +1.435 | +4.000 | +2.565 | - | - |
| pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_rhh | +1.307 | +0.914 | -0.393 | - | - |
| Batter | Pos | Proj PA | Composite z | Three strongest KPI readings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD lineup vs Jacob Misiorowski | ||||
| 1. Mookie Betts | SS | 4.65 | +0.592 | whiff_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+2.45), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.95), strikeout_rate Very good (+1.91) |
| 2. Freddie Freeman | 1B | 4.55 | +0.191 | whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+1.33), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Good (+1.04), contact_xwoba Good (+0.83) |
| 3. Will Smith | C | 4.45 | +0.775 | ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+2.08), contact_xwoba_vs_fastball Very good (+1.81), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Very good (+1.70) |
| 4. Shohei Ohtani | DH | 4.35 | +0.902 | contact_xwoba_vs_fastball Very good (+2.84), contact_xwoba Very good (+2.75), barrel_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+2.67) |
| 5. Teoscar Hernández | LF | 4.25 | +0.079 | whiff_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-1.43), barrel_rate_vs_lhp Good (+1.34), contact_xwoba Good (+1.24) |
| 6. Max Muncy | 3B | 4.15 | +0.515 | ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.89), contact_xwoba_vs_fastball Very good (+1.71), barrel_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.67) |
| 7. Andy Pages | CF | 4.05 | +0.387 | ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Very good (+1.31), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Good (+0.90), whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Good (+0.79) |
| 8. Kyle Tucker | RF | 3.98 | +0.162 | ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Very good (+2.24), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Poor (-1.42), walk_rate Very good (+1.35) |
| 9. Enrique Hernández | 2B | 3.90 | -0.026 | whiff_rate_vs_lhp Below average (-0.59), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Average (+0.00), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Average (+0.00) |
| MIL lineup vs Tarik Skubal | ||||
| 1. Jackson Chourio | LF | 4.65 | +0.527 | exit_velocity_vs_fastball Very good (+1.55), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.49), barrel_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+1.44) |
| 2. Brice Turang | 2B | 4.55 | +0.313 | hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.68), walk_rate Very good (+1.56), contact_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.39) |
| 3. William Contreras | C | 4.45 | +0.312 | contact_rate_vs_breaking Good (+1.28), strikeout_rate Good (+1.24), exit_velocity_vs_fastball Good (+0.97) |
| 4. Jake Bauers | 1B | 4.35 | +0.658 | walk_rate Very good (+2.75), contact_xwoba Very good (+1.77), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.68) |
| 5. Andrew Vaughn | DH | 4.25 | +0.040 | whiff_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.28), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Poor (-1.23), barrel_rate_vs_breaking Below average (-1.09) |
| 6. Garrett Mitchell | CF | 4.15 | +0.227 | contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Very good (+2.32), whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Poor (-2.25), contact_xwoba Very good (+2.20) |
| 7. Cooper Pratt | SS | 4.05 | -0.267 | hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Below average (-1.14), home_run_rate Below average (-1.13), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Below average (-1.07) |
| 8. Luis Lara | RF | 3.98 | -0.291 | ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Poor (-2.26), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+1.38), barrel_rate_vs_lhp Poor (-1.37) |
| 9. Joey Ortiz | 3B | 3.90 | -0.222 | ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Poor (-1.42), contact_rate_vs_breaking Good (+1.23), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Below average (-1.16) |