Each game expands to show the four forecast stages, the gates, the club-level KPI edges the model consumed and both lineups with their strongest readings. Composite z averages a hitter's KPI standard scores; a positive number means above the qualified-population mean on balance.
| Stage | Away runs | Home runs | Home win | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Production baseline | 5.000 | 6.000 | 0.537 | what the system would have published |
| KPI-only forecast | 3.220 | 4.829 | 0.446 | 44 KPI features alone, no baseline input |
| Blended | 4.395 | 5.555 | 0.537 | at the fitted weights |
| Published | 5 | 6 | 0.527 | after rounding and reconciliation |
| Actual | 0 | 2 | - | official final |
| KPI | CHW | CLE | Edge (H-A) | A spread | H spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| batter_barrel_rate_vs_breaking | +0.083 | -0.597 | -0.680 | 1.0852 | 0.4994 |
| batter_barrel_rate_vs_fastball | +0.483 | -0.612 | -1.096 | 1.2427 | 0.7182 |
| batter_barrel_rate_vs_lhp | +0.298 | -0.414 | -0.712 | 1.1082 | 0.827 |
| batter_barrel_rate_vs_offspeed | +0.311 | -0.380 | -0.691 | 1.1233 | 1.0472 |
| batter_barrel_rate_vs_rhp | +0.419 | -0.584 | -1.003 | 1.1868 | 0.691 |
| batter_bat_speed | -0.122 | -0.381 | -0.258 | 1.1564 | 1.4494 |
| batter_contact_rate_vs_breaking | -0.219 | +0.488 | +0.707 | 1.1208 | 1.3658 |
| batter_contact_xwoba | +0.327 | -0.334 | -0.660 | 0.9658 | 0.7596 |
| batter_contact_xwoba_vs_breaking | +0.024 | -0.513 | -0.537 | 0.8699 | 0.7815 |
| batter_contact_xwoba_vs_fastball | +0.401 | -0.182 | -0.583 | 0.9384 | 0.698 |
| batter_exit_velocity_vs_fastball | +0.052 | -0.324 | -0.376 | 1.0108 | 1.1185 |
| batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball | +0.337 | +0.505 | +0.168 | 0.9244 | 0.5706 |
| batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_slider | +0.093 | +0.257 | +0.165 | 1.1063 | 0.6167 |
| batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking | +0.269 | -0.386 | -0.655 | 1.0762 | 1.0827 |
| batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball | +0.042 | -0.532 | -0.574 | 0.8588 | 1.4777 |
| batter_home_run_rate | +0.345 | -0.344 | -0.689 | 1.1583 | 0.7392 |
| batter_strikeout_rate | -0.390 | +0.594 | +0.984 | 1.255 | 0.9674 |
| batter_walk_rate | +0.338 | +0.187 | -0.150 | 1.1907 | 0.8971 |
| batter_whiff_rate_vs_breaking | +0.051 | +0.673 | +0.623 | 1.4112 | 1.1025 |
| batter_whiff_rate_vs_fastball | -0.689 | +0.486 | +1.175 | 1.4227 | 1.0192 |
| batter_whiff_rate_vs_lhp | -0.245 | +0.463 | +0.708 | 1.3481 | 0.9559 |
| batter_whiff_rate_vs_offspeed | -0.096 | +0.658 | +0.754 | 1.1076 | 0.9326 |
| batter_whiff_rate_vs_rhp | -0.164 | +0.816 | +0.980 | 1.3515 | 0.9966 |
| pitcher_barrel_rate_allowed | -0.691 | -2.608 | -1.917 | - | - |
| pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_lhh | -1.057 | -2.102 | -1.044 | - | - |
| pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_rhh | +0.104 | -1.778 | -1.882 | - | - |
| pitcher_contact_xwoba_allowed | +0.063 | -1.842 | -1.905 | - | - |
| pitcher_ground_ball_rate_induced | -0.996 | +0.485 | +1.482 | - | - |
| pitcher_hard_hit_rate_allowed | -0.088 | -2.204 | -2.116 | - | - |
| pitcher_home_run_rate_allowed | +0.300 | -0.654 | -0.955 | - | - |
| pitcher_release_speed | -0.117 | +0.485 | +0.601 | - | - |
| pitcher_strikeout_rate | +0.693 | +2.313 | +1.620 | - | - |
| pitcher_walk_rate | +0.038 | +0.268 | +0.230 | - | - |
| pitcher_whiff_rate | -0.119 | +1.886 | +2.005 | - | - |
| pitcher_whiff_rate_breaking | -0.266 | +1.138 | +1.404 | - | - |
| pitcher_whiff_rate_fastball | +0.549 | +1.417 | +0.869 | - | - |
| pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_lhh | -0.477 | +1.585 | +2.062 | - | - |
| pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_rhh | +0.368 | +1.958 | +1.590 | - | - |
| Batter | Pos | Proj PA | Composite z | Three strongest KPI readings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHW lineup vs Gavin Williams | ||||
| 1. Sam Antonacci | LF | 4.65 | -0.072 | whiff_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+2.29), whiff_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+1.73), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Poor (-1.57) |
| 2. Kyle Teel | C | 4.55 | -0.090 | whiff_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.07), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Average (+0.00), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Average (+0.00) |
| 3. Miguel Vargas | 3B | 4.45 | +1.043 | walk_rate Very good (+2.02), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.83), barrel_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+1.69) |
| 4. Munetaka Murakami | 1B | 4.35 | +0.714 | whiff_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-3.27), barrel_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+3.16), barrel_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+3.14) |
| 5. Andrew Benintendi | DH | 4.25 | +0.040 | whiff_rate_vs_lhp Poor (-1.40), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Good (+1.01), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Good (+1.01) |
| 6. Tristan Peters | RF | 4.15 | -0.382 | exit_velocity_vs_fastball Poor (-1.90), bat_speed Poor (-1.38), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-1.17) |
| 7. Chase Meidroth | 2B | 4.05 | -0.270 | bat_speed Poor (-2.07), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Good (+1.29), whiff_rate_vs_breaking Good (+1.14) |
| 8. Colson Montgomery | SS | 3.98 | +0.046 | strikeout_rate Poor (-2.35), contact_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-2.24), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.12) |
| 9. Brenton Doyle | CF | 3.90 | -0.367 | strikeout_rate Poor (-1.55), whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Poor (-1.49), whiff_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-1.40) |
| CLE lineup vs Sean Burke | ||||
| 1. Steven Kwan | LF | 4.65 | -0.344 | hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-4.00), bat_speed Poor (-3.47), contact_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+3.09) |
| 2. José Ramírez | 3B | 4.55 | +0.275 | whiff_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+2.21), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+1.87), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.70) |
| 3. Chase DeLauter | RF | 4.45 | +0.480 | contact_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+2.31), whiff_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+1.80), whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+1.62) |
| 4. Jo Adell | DH | 4.35 | +0.156 | bat_speed Very good (+2.16), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+1.68), walk_rate Poor (-1.40) |
| 5. Nathaniel Lowe | 1B | 4.25 | +0.251 | whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Good (+1.13), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Good (+1.01), bat_speed Good (+0.99) |
| 6. Travis Bazzana | 2B | 4.15 | -0.267 | hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-1.41), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Poor (-1.41), barrel_rate_vs_breaking Below average (-1.09) |
| 7. Patrick Bailey | C | 4.05 | +0.033 | ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Good (+0.95), strikeout_rate Below average (-0.88), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Good (+0.84) |
| 8. Petey Halpin | CF | 3.98 | -0.301 | exit_velocity_vs_fastball Poor (-2.14), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-1.81), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Very good (+1.36) |
| 9. Brayan Rocchio | SS | 3.90 | -0.543 | barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Poor (-1.60), barrel_rate_vs_rhp Poor (-1.47), barrel_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-1.35) |