Each game expands to show the four forecast stages, the gates, the club-level KPI edges the model consumed and both lineups with their strongest readings. Composite z averages a hitter's KPI standard scores; a positive number means above the qualified-population mean on balance.
| Stage | Away runs | Home runs | Home win | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Production baseline | 4.000 | 5.000 | 0.526 | what the system would have published |
| KPI-only forecast | 3.636 | 5.619 | 0.579 | 44 KPI features alone, no baseline input |
| Blended | 3.716 | 5.272 | 0.526 | at the fitted weights |
| Published | 4 | 5 | 0.518 | after rounding and reconciliation |
| Actual | 4 | 3 | - | official final |
Numeric coefficient contributions explain the KPI-only forecast. Home-win contributions use log-odds; run targets use runs.
| Target | Feature | Raw | Standardised | Contribution | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| home_runs | away_x_suppress | -0.8553 | -3.665 | +0.8801 | runs |
| home_runs | home_off_discipline | 0.5366 | +2.246 | -0.5282 | runs |
| home_runs | away_off_contact_spread | 0.9624 | +1.353 | -0.4390 | runs |
| home_runs | away_off_discipline_spread | 0.9369 | +2.473 | -0.3999 | runs |
| home_runs | home_off_power | -0.2953 | -1.493 | -0.3968 | runs |
| home_runs | away_off_top3_contact | 1.2780 | +1.722 | -0.3740 | runs |
| home_runs | home_off_ground_spread | 0.3813 | -1.257 | -0.3695 | runs |
| home_runs | away_off_power_spread | 1.1543 | +1.469 | +0.3287 | runs |
| home_runs | away_off_ground_spread | 1.1795 | +2.464 | +0.3106 | runs |
| home_runs | away_x_fastball | -0.9471 | -5.759 | +0.3057 | runs |
| away_runs | away_x_fastball | -0.9471 | -5.759 | -1.2283 | runs |
| away_runs | home_off_power_spread | 1.0906 | +1.365 | +0.8901 | runs |
| away_runs | home_platoon_whiff | 0.5948 | +1.899 | -0.8165 | runs |
| away_runs | home_off_qualified_share | 1.0000 | +2.096 | -0.7754 | runs |
| away_runs | home_platoon_barrel | -0.4177 | -1.566 | +0.6170 | runs |
| away_runs | away_sp_whiff | 1.1633 | +2.168 | +0.5548 | runs |
| away_runs | away_off_worst3_discipline | -1.1139 | -2.311 | -0.5384 | runs |
| away_runs | away_sp_command | 0.8911 | +1.479 | -0.4717 | runs |
| away_runs | away_off_contact_spread | 0.9624 | +1.353 | -0.4677 | runs |
| away_runs | home_off_discipline | 0.5366 | +2.246 | +0.4589 | runs |
| home_win | home_off_qualified_share | 1.0000 | +2.096 | +0.4545 | log_odds |
| home_win | away_sp_command | 0.8911 | +1.479 | +0.3338 | log_odds |
| home_win | away_off_discipline_spread | 0.9369 | +2.473 | -0.2442 | log_odds |
| home_win | home_off_power_spread | 1.0906 | +1.365 | -0.2421 | log_odds |
| home_win | away_x_suppress | -0.8553 | -3.665 | +0.2247 | log_odds |
| home_win | home_platoon_whiff | 0.5948 | +1.899 | +0.2213 | log_odds |
| home_win | away_off_qualified_share | 0.8947 | +1.169 | -0.1587 | log_odds |
| home_win | away_x_fastball | -0.9471 | -5.759 | -0.1484 | log_odds |
| home_win | home_platoon_barrel | -0.4177 | -1.566 | -0.1474 | log_odds |
| home_win | home_off_top3_contact | 0.3809 | -1.133 | -0.1392 | log_odds |
Each row replaces one player's qualified KPI values with population-mean z=0. Interactions make rows non-additive. Zero means no measured joint-model movement at the fitted weight; it is not a claim of zero individual impact. Player props remain unchanged.
| Side | Role | Player ID | Proj PA | Features changed | Away runs | Home runs | Home win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| home | batter | 680757 | 4.225220940724 | 15 | +0.4105 | -0.0403 | -0.0000 |
| home | batter | 608070 | 4.60691326783 | 15 | -0.3489 | +0.1482 | +0.0000 |
| home | batter | 800050 | 4.649667967846 | 15 | -0.2518 | +0.0061 | +0.0000 |
| home | batter | 666176 | 4.074226904664 | 17 | -0.1853 | -0.0411 | +0.0000 |
| home | batter | 663993 | 3.43848817119 | 14 | -0.1153 | +0.0972 | +0.0000 |
| home | batter | 682657 | 4.151460708788 | 16 | -0.3722 | +0.0816 | +0.0000 |
| home | batter | 683953 | 4.066294998542 | 15 | -0.2494 | +0.0727 | +0.0000 |
| home | batter | 672275 | 3.254537734938 | 16 | -0.3475 | -0.0085 | +0.0000 |
| home | batter | 677587 | 3.738156705866 | 15 | -0.2765 | +0.0778 | +0.0000 |
| away | batter | 803011 | 3.70342189574 | 15 | +0.1514 | -0.2277 | -0.0000 |
| away | batter | 691019 | 4.1615309216325 | 5 | -0.3332 | +0.0361 | -0.0000 |
| away | batter | 678246 | 4.3870415424525 | 16 | +0.4465 | +0.1464 | -0.0000 |
| away | batter | 808959 | 4.307131522475 | 17 | -0.3610 | -0.0739 | -0.0000 |
| away | batter | 643217 | 3.2369379632675 | 15 | +0.1788 | +0.0992 | -0.0000 |
| away | batter | 671976 | 3.20407550351 | 15 | +0.0061 | -0.1139 | -0.0000 |
| away | batter | 695731 | 3.8365991304750002 | 15 | +0.1127 | -0.0887 | -0.0000 |
| away | batter | 805367 | 3.9967008577875 | 15 | +0.1381 | -0.2262 | -0.0000 |
| away | batter | 695657 | 3.9895933853025003 | 17 | +0.0131 | +0.1968 | -0.0000 |
| home | pitcher | 668909 | - | 10 | -0.5718 | +0.5824 | +0.0000 |
| away | pitcher | 641743 | - | 10 | +0.1828 | +0.1225 | +0.0000 |
| home | reliever | 682120 | 2.711644696560419 | 10 | +0.0448 | +0.0062 | -0.0000 |
| home | reliever | 682982 | 2.574199891950298 | 0 | +0.0000 | +0.0000 | +0.0000 |
| home | reliever | 681870 | 2.5947523860976056 | 10 | +0.0000 | -0.0024 | -0.0000 |
| home | reliever | 683769 | 2.4996971006663076 | 10 | +0.0429 | -0.0121 | -0.0000 |
| home | reliever | 671922 | 2.5228186565820288 | 9 | -0.1787 | +0.0726 | +0.0000 |
| home | reliever | 542888 | 0.7270444804610123 | 10 | -0.0027 | -0.0009 | -0.0000 |
| home | reliever | 670036 | 0.6358427876823342 | 10 | -0.0132 | -0.0010 | -0.0000 |
| away | reliever | 656794 | 3.689041857325032 | 9 | -0.0554 | +0.0049 | +0.0000 |
| away | reliever | 663855 | 2.394165779011327 | 10 | +0.0135 | +0.0752 | -0.0000 |
| away | reliever | 663542 | 2.158519540919661 | 10 | -0.0666 | -0.0135 | +0.0000 |
| away | reliever | 607200 | 3.5841792813742406 | 10 | +0.0589 | -0.0108 | -0.0000 |
| away | reliever | 689818 | 1.1923699647438304 | 10 | -0.0125 | -0.0018 | +0.0000 |
| away | reliever | 691799 | 1.623602580451579 | 10 | -0.0330 | +0.0050 | +0.0000 |
| away | reliever | 696146 | 1.0651209961743306 | 6 | +0.0110 | +0.0032 | -0.0000 |
| KPI | CHW | CLE | Edge (H-A) | A spread | H spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| batter_barrel_rate_vs_breaking | -0.001 | -0.435 | -0.435 | 1.12 | 0.7367 |
| batter_barrel_rate_vs_fastball | +0.474 | -0.586 | -1.059 | 1.2493 | 0.7222 |
| batter_barrel_rate_vs_lhp | +0.164 | -0.408 | -0.572 | 1.1623 | 0.8288 |
| batter_barrel_rate_vs_offspeed | +0.128 | -0.472 | -0.600 | 1.1314 | 1.031 |
| batter_barrel_rate_vs_rhp | +0.342 | -0.571 | -0.914 | 1.2355 | 0.6969 |
| batter_bat_speed | -0.220 | -0.328 | -0.109 | 1.1706 | 1.4401 |
| batter_contact_rate_vs_breaking | -0.098 | +0.349 | +0.447 | 1.0956 | 1.4508 |
| batter_contact_xwoba | +0.357 | -0.276 | -0.633 | 0.9415 | 0.7658 |
| batter_contact_xwoba_vs_breaking | -0.009 | -0.288 | -0.279 | 0.8768 | 0.9236 |
| batter_contact_xwoba_vs_fastball | +0.434 | -0.144 | -0.577 | 0.9289 | 0.7043 |
| batter_exit_velocity_vs_fastball | +0.137 | -0.124 | -0.261 | 1.0232 | 0.9165 |
| batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball | +0.146 | +0.498 | +0.352 | 1.2745 | 0.5721 |
| batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_slider | -0.071 | +0.025 | +0.096 | 1.1872 | 0.5665 |
| batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking | +0.220 | -0.274 | -0.493 | 1.0956 | 1.1034 |
| batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball | +0.195 | -0.396 | -0.590 | 0.8718 | 1.4056 |
| batter_home_run_rate | +0.259 | -0.244 | -0.503 | 1.2235 | 0.8343 |
| batter_strikeout_rate | -0.187 | +0.598 | +0.785 | 1.2093 | 0.9662 |
| batter_walk_rate | +0.493 | -0.036 | -0.529 | 1.0995 | 1.1363 |
| batter_whiff_rate_vs_breaking | +0.191 | +0.719 | +0.528 | 1.3221 | 1.0989 |
| batter_whiff_rate_vs_fastball | -0.767 | +0.674 | +1.442 | 1.4108 | 0.8398 |
| batter_whiff_rate_vs_lhp | -0.284 | +0.563 | +0.847 | 1.3723 | 0.9542 |
| batter_whiff_rate_vs_offspeed | +0.004 | +0.774 | +0.771 | 1.012 | 0.9144 |
| batter_whiff_rate_vs_rhp | -0.205 | +0.856 | +1.061 | 1.3514 | 0.9775 |
| pitcher_barrel_rate_allowed | -0.566 | -2.608 | -2.042 | - | - |
| pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_lhh | +1.961 | -2.102 | -4.062 | - | - |
| pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_rhh | -1.940 | -1.778 | +0.163 | - | - |
| pitcher_contact_xwoba_allowed | -0.583 | -1.842 | -1.259 | - | - |
| pitcher_ground_ball_rate_induced | +0.096 | +0.485 | +0.389 | - | - |
| pitcher_hard_hit_rate_allowed | -0.282 | -2.204 | -1.921 | - | - |
| pitcher_home_run_rate_allowed | -0.119 | -0.654 | -0.535 | - | - |
| pitcher_release_speed | +0.083 | +0.485 | +0.402 | - | - |
| pitcher_strikeout_rate | -1.028 | +2.313 | +3.340 | - | - |
| pitcher_walk_rate | +0.479 | +0.268 | -0.211 | - | - |
| pitcher_whiff_rate | -0.357 | +1.886 | +2.243 | - | - |
| pitcher_whiff_rate_breaking | -0.057 | +1.138 | +1.194 | - | - |
| pitcher_whiff_rate_fastball | -0.342 | +1.417 | +1.759 | - | - |
| pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_lhh | +0.794 | +1.585 | +0.791 | - | - |
| pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_rhh | -0.864 | +1.958 | +2.823 | - | - |
| Batter | Pos | Proj PA | Composite z | Three strongest KPI readings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHW lineup vs Gavin Williams | ||||
| 1. Sam Antonacci | LF | 4.65 | -0.072 | whiff_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+2.29), whiff_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+1.73), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Poor (-1.57) |
| 2. Kyle Teel | C | 4.55 | -0.090 | whiff_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.07), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Average (+0.00), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Average (+0.00) |
| 3. Miguel Vargas | 3B | 4.45 | +1.043 | walk_rate Very good (+2.02), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.83), barrel_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+1.69) |
| 4. Munetaka Murakami | 1B | 4.35 | +0.714 | whiff_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-3.27), barrel_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+3.16), barrel_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+3.14) |
| 5. Andrew Benintendi | DH | 4.25 | +0.040 | whiff_rate_vs_lhp Poor (-1.40), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Good (+1.01), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Good (+1.01) |
| 6. Tristan Peters | CF | 4.15 | -0.382 | exit_velocity_vs_fastball Poor (-1.90), bat_speed Poor (-1.38), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-1.17) |
| 7. Braden Montgomery | RF | 4.05 | -0.458 | ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.61), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Poor (-1.34), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Below average (-1.28) |
| 8. Chase Meidroth | 2B | 3.98 | -0.270 | bat_speed Poor (-2.07), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Good (+1.29), whiff_rate_vs_breaking Good (+1.14) |
| 9. Colson Montgomery | SS | 3.90 | +0.046 | strikeout_rate Poor (-2.35), contact_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-2.24), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.12) |
| CLE lineup vs Anthony Kay | ||||
| 1. Steven Kwan | CF | 4.65 | -0.344 | hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-4.00), bat_speed Poor (-3.47), contact_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+3.09) |
| 2. José Ramírez | 3B | 4.55 | +0.275 | whiff_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+2.21), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+1.87), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.70) |
| 3. Chase DeLauter | RF | 4.45 | +0.480 | contact_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+2.31), whiff_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+1.80), whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+1.62) |
| 4. Jo Adell | DH | 4.35 | +0.156 | bat_speed Very good (+2.16), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+1.68), walk_rate Poor (-1.40) |
| 5. Nathaniel Lowe | 1B | 4.25 | +0.251 | whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Good (+1.13), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Good (+1.01), bat_speed Good (+0.99) |
| 6. Angel Martínez | LF | 4.15 | +0.078 | walk_rate Poor (-2.05), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Good (+1.16), barrel_rate_vs_breaking Good (+1.12) |
| 7. Travis Bazzana | 2B | 4.05 | -0.267 | hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-1.41), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Poor (-1.41), barrel_rate_vs_breaking Below average (-1.09) |
| 8. Patrick Bailey | C | 3.98 | +0.033 | ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Good (+0.95), strikeout_rate Below average (-0.88), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Good (+0.84) |
| 9. Brayan Rocchio | SS | 3.90 | -0.543 | barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Poor (-1.60), barrel_rate_vs_rhp Poor (-1.47), barrel_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-1.35) |
| Stage | Away runs | Home runs | Home win | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Production baseline | 4.000 | 3.000 | 0.453 | what the system would have published |
| KPI-only forecast | 4.427 | 3.116 | 0.685 | 44 KPI features alone, no baseline input |
| Blended | 4.333 | 3.051 | 0.453 | at the fitted weights |
| Published | 4 | 2 | 0.460 | after rounding and reconciliation |
| Actual | 2 | 5 | - | official final |
Numeric coefficient contributions explain the KPI-only forecast. Home-win contributions use log-odds; run targets use runs.
| Target | Feature | Raw | Standardised | Contribution | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| home_runs | home_off_ground_spread | 1.2847 | +2.859 | +0.8403 | runs |
| home_runs | home_x_fastball | 0.9223 | +4.653 | -0.7820 | runs |
| home_runs | home_off_discipline | 0.7576 | +3.296 | -0.7751 | runs |
| home_runs | home_sp_velocity | 1.5794 | +2.236 | +0.6970 | runs |
| home_runs | home_off_worst3_discipline | 0.0206 | +2.138 | +0.6437 | runs |
| home_runs | home_pen_minus_sp | -0.4227 | -2.914 | -0.6244 | runs |
| home_runs | home_off_contact_spread | 1.1519 | +2.556 | +0.4602 | runs |
| home_runs | away_off_top3_contact | 1.3995 | +2.117 | -0.4599 | runs |
| home_runs | home_off_power_spread | 1.5797 | +3.423 | -0.4359 | runs |
| home_runs | home_sp_command | 1.0229 | +1.761 | -0.4276 | runs |
| away_runs | home_off_power_spread | 1.5797 | +3.423 | +2.2318 | runs |
| away_runs | home_platoon_whiff | 0.8852 | +2.933 | -1.2609 | runs |
| away_runs | home_x_fastball | 0.9223 | +4.653 | -1.1913 | runs |
| away_runs | away_off_contact | 0.5754 | +2.335 | +0.8940 | runs |
| away_runs | home_off_qualified_share | 0.9942 | +2.043 | -0.7557 | runs |
| away_runs | home_off_discipline | 0.7576 | +3.296 | +0.6733 | runs |
| away_runs | home_x_breaking | 1.0853 | +6.021 | +0.5849 | runs |
| away_runs | home_off_ground_spread | 1.2847 | +2.859 | +0.5180 | runs |
| away_runs | away_off_worst3_discipline | -1.0390 | -2.018 | -0.4701 | runs |
| away_runs | home_sp_velocity | 1.5794 | +2.236 | -0.4594 | runs |
| home_win | home_off_power_spread | 1.5797 | +3.423 | -0.6069 | log_odds |
| home_win | home_off_qualified_share | 0.9942 | +2.043 | +0.4429 | log_odds |
| home_win | home_x_fastball | 0.9223 | +4.653 | +0.3849 | log_odds |
| home_win | home_platoon_whiff | 0.8852 | +2.933 | +0.3417 | log_odds |
| home_win | home_sp_velocity | 1.5794 | +2.236 | +0.3329 | log_odds |
| home_win | away_off_ground | 0.5319 | +1.645 | +0.3130 | log_odds |
| home_win | home_x_breaking | 1.0853 | +6.021 | -0.2778 | log_odds |
| home_win | home_sp_command | 1.0229 | +1.761 | -0.2611 | log_odds |
| home_win | home_x_ground | -0.2475 | -1.204 | -0.1742 | log_odds |
| home_win | away_off_qualified_share | 0.9064 | +1.275 | -0.1730 | log_odds |
Each row replaces one player's qualified KPI values with population-mean z=0. Interactions make rows non-additive. Zero means no measured joint-model movement at the fitted weight; it is not a claim of zero individual impact. Player props remain unchanged.
| Side | Role | Player ID | Proj PA | Features changed | Away runs | Home runs | Home win |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| home | batter | 650490 | 5.064877478200001 | 17 | -0.3548 | -0.0669 | +0.0000 |
| home | batter | 666018 | 4.2976702758 | 17 | -0.4032 | +0.1221 | +0.0000 |
| home | batter | 691406 | 4.1424878756 | 17 | +0.3872 | -0.0354 | +0.0000 |
| home | batter | 689414 | 4.0292105568 | 16 | -0.6503 | -0.0115 | +0.0000 |
| home | batter | 802415 | 4.4497557688 | 16 | +0.1868 | -0.0291 | +0.0000 |
| home | batter | 683748 | 3.6662800896 | 16 | -0.0375 | +0.2326 | +0.0000 |
| home | batter | 676356 | 3.5799885646000003 | 16 | -0.2998 | +0.0894 | +0.0000 |
| home | batter | 680700 | 3.314460802 | 16 | -0.3793 | +0.0381 | +0.0000 |
| home | batter | 670764 | 3.4934578326 | 16 | -0.1020 | +0.0081 | +0.0000 |
| away | batter | 700250 | 4.6865701959408 | 16 | +0.0835 | -0.2385 | -0.0000 |
| away | batter | 641355 | 4.874665962 | 15 | +0.4889 | +0.0227 | -0.0000 |
| away | batter | 671277 | 4.0509101436224 | 16 | +0.3393 | -0.0880 | -0.0000 |
| away | batter | 682987 | 3.5744666632688 | 17 | -0.2187 | -0.2564 | -0.0000 |
| away | batter | 806146 | 4.0951373062447995 | 8 | -0.0598 | +0.0078 | +0.0000 |
| away | batter | 665862 | 3.8903042427168 | 16 | +0.0731 | -0.0020 | -0.0000 |
| away | batter | 663757 | 4.2358685479456 | 15 | +0.4066 | -0.0536 | -0.0000 |
| away | batter | 669224 | 3.2396751223744 | 15 | +0.1121 | -0.0458 | -0.0000 |
| away | batter | 641857 | 3.1330452919872003 | 16 | +0.0467 | -0.0595 | -0.0000 |
| home | pitcher | 642547 | - | 10 | -0.0742 | -0.3080 | -0.0000 |
| away | pitcher | 693645 | - | 10 | -1.1330 | -0.5681 | +0.0000 |
| home | reliever | 642121 | 2.3863797356828194 | 9 | +0.0720 | +0.0046 | -0.0000 |
| home | reliever | 641329 | 4.086766519823788 | 9 | -0.0275 | +0.0091 | +0.0000 |
| home | reliever | 571927 | 2.812084581497797 | 10 | +0.0446 | -0.0191 | -0.0000 |
| home | reliever | 592155 | 1.6882237885462554 | 9 | +0.0075 | -0.0178 | +0.0000 |
| home | reliever | 687330 | 1.5982176211453747 | 9 | -0.1028 | +0.0277 | +0.0000 |
| home | reliever | 693855 | 0.8976290748898678 | 10 | +0.0325 | -0.0102 | -0.0000 |
| home | reliever | 669330 | 0.33569867841409695 | 10 | +0.0117 | -0.0055 | -0.0000 |
| away | reliever | 621112 | 2.5791357074109724 | 10 | +0.1271 | +0.0124 | -0.0000 |
| away | reliever | 670167 | 2.2456573628488936 | 10 | -0.0335 | -0.0043 | +0.0000 |
| away | reliever | 687396 | 2.4963573949310236 | 10 | +0.0446 | +0.0258 | -0.0000 |
| away | reliever | 670280 | 2.5885960859801096 | 10 | +0.0144 | -0.0217 | -0.0000 |
| away | reliever | 701542 | 2.7884465832531284 | 10 | +0.0007 | -0.0187 | -0.0000 |
| away | reliever | 677960 | 1.6744870067372473 | 10 | +0.1053 | -0.0059 | -0.0000 |
| away | reliever | 642232 | 0.37131985883862695 | 10 | +0.0073 | -0.0013 | -0.0000 |
| KPI | NYY | TB | Edge (H-A) | A spread | H spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| batter_barrel_rate_vs_breaking | +0.160 | -0.258 | -0.418 | 0.6484 | 0.9502 |
| batter_barrel_rate_vs_fastball | +0.535 | -0.425 | -0.960 | 1.0114 | 1.1814 |
| batter_barrel_rate_vs_lhp | -0.127 | -0.765 | -0.638 | 0.4398 | 1.0528 |
| batter_barrel_rate_vs_offspeed | +0.346 | -0.416 | -0.762 | 0.7525 | 0.7863 |
| batter_barrel_rate_vs_rhp | +0.606 | -0.249 | -0.855 | 0.7343 | 1.0406 |
| batter_bat_speed | +0.283 | -0.366 | -0.649 | 0.6492 | 1.7612 |
| batter_contact_rate_vs_breaking | -0.567 | +1.009 | +1.576 | 0.8167 | 1.1405 |
| batter_contact_xwoba | +0.481 | -0.519 | -1.000 | 0.8644 | 1.0811 |
| batter_contact_xwoba_vs_breaking | +0.437 | -0.198 | -0.634 | 0.7864 | 1.0934 |
| batter_contact_xwoba_vs_fastball | +0.494 | -0.707 | -1.200 | 0.9072 | 1.0416 |
| batter_exit_velocity_vs_fastball | +0.501 | -0.493 | -0.994 | 0.5451 | 1.5204 |
| batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball | +0.627 | -0.441 | -1.068 | 0.6488 | 1.3856 |
| batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_slider | +0.387 | -0.130 | -0.517 | 0.8355 | 1.3005 |
| batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking | +0.710 | -0.364 | -1.074 | 0.7327 | 1.5015 |
| batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball | +0.458 | -0.638 | -1.096 | 0.4925 | 1.6232 |
| batter_home_run_rate | +0.472 | -0.039 | -0.511 | 0.8043 | 1.4156 |
| batter_strikeout_rate | -0.464 | +0.775 | +1.239 | 0.9927 | 0.9619 |
| batter_walk_rate | +0.548 | +0.002 | -0.546 | 0.6353 | 0.9119 |
| batter_whiff_rate_vs_breaking | -0.421 | +1.045 | +1.466 | 0.7067 | 0.7458 |
| batter_whiff_rate_vs_fastball | -0.261 | +0.717 | +0.978 | 1.0048 | 1.0174 |
| batter_whiff_rate_vs_lhp | -0.207 | +1.043 | +1.250 | 0.8111 | 0.6029 |
| batter_whiff_rate_vs_offspeed | -0.344 | +0.773 | +1.117 | 0.8469 | 0.8506 |
| batter_whiff_rate_vs_rhp | -0.324 | +0.836 | +1.160 | 0.9576 | 0.8973 |
| pitcher_barrel_rate_allowed | +0.256 | +1.466 | +1.209 | - | - |
| pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_lhh | +0.120 | +0.792 | +0.671 | - | - |
| pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_rhh | +0.274 | +1.536 | +1.262 | - | - |
| pitcher_contact_xwoba_allowed | +0.635 | +0.770 | +0.135 | - | - |
| pitcher_ground_ball_rate_induced | +0.315 | -0.368 | -0.683 | - | - |
| pitcher_hard_hit_rate_allowed | +0.047 | +0.441 | +0.394 | - | - |
| pitcher_home_run_rate_allowed | +1.079 | -0.238 | -1.318 | - | - |
| pitcher_release_speed | +2.722 | -0.140 | -2.862 | - | - |
| pitcher_strikeout_rate | +1.938 | -0.262 | -2.201 | - | - |
| pitcher_walk_rate | +1.171 | +0.186 | -0.985 | - | - |
| pitcher_whiff_rate | +0.901 | +0.024 | -0.877 | - | - |
| pitcher_whiff_rate_breaking | +1.357 | -0.048 | -1.405 | - | - |
| pitcher_whiff_rate_fastball | +2.191 | +0.399 | -1.791 | - | - |
| pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_lhh | +1.306 | +0.421 | -0.884 | - | - |
| pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_rhh | +0.173 | -0.544 | -0.717 | - | - |
| Batter | Pos | Proj PA | Composite z | Three strongest KPI readings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY lineup vs Freddy Peralta | ||||
| 1. Ben Rice | DH | 4.65 | +0.831 | home_run_rate Very good (+2.65), barrel_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+2.15), contact_xwoba_vs_fastball Very good (+2.07) |
| 2. Cody Bellinger | LF | 4.55 | +0.273 | ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Very good (+1.76), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Good (+1.25), strikeout_rate Good (+1.07) |
| 3. Luis Garcia | 1B | 4.45 | +0.000 | barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Average (+0.00), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Average (+0.00), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Average (+0.00) |
| 4. Spencer Jones | RF | 4.35 | +0.285 | whiff_rate_vs_rhp Poor (-2.59), barrel_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+2.40), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.37) |
| 5. George Lombard Jr. | SS | 4.25 | -0.030 | whiff_rate_vs_fastball Below average (-1.23), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Average (+0.45), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Average (+0.10) |
| 6. Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 2B | 4.15 | -0.101 | whiff_rate_vs_lhp Poor (-1.60), strikeout_rate Below average (-1.31), barrel_rate_vs_breaking Good (+1.05) |
| 7. Trent Grisham | CF | 4.05 | +0.482 | walk_rate Very good (+1.33), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Good (+1.24), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Good (+1.17) |
| 8. Austin Wells | C | 3.98 | -0.068 | contact_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-1.55), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.33), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Poor (-1.21) |
| 9. Ryan McMahon | 3B | 3.90 | -0.069 | whiff_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-1.54), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.38), strikeout_rate Below average (-1.22) |
| TB lineup vs Cam Schlittler | ||||
| 1. Yandy Díaz | DH | 4.65 | +0.661 | contact_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+3.15), whiff_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+2.60), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.15) |
| 2. Jonathan Aranda | 1B | 4.55 | +0.634 | whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+1.78), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.75), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Very good (+1.58) |
| 3. Junior Caminero | 3B | 4.45 | +0.935 | bat_speed Very good (+3.05), home_run_rate Very good (+2.48), exit_velocity_vs_fastball Very good (+2.08) |
| 4. Liam Hicks | C | 4.35 | -0.041 | whiff_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+2.27), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.10), whiff_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+2.08) |
| 5. Chandler Simpson | LF | 4.25 | -1.022 | hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-3.60), bat_speed Poor (-3.27), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-3.24) |
| 6. Victor Mesa Jr. | RF | 4.15 | +0.300 | ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Very good (+1.46), home_run_rate Good (+1.31), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Good (+1.16) |
| 7. Jonny DeLuca | CF | 4.05 | -0.443 | walk_rate Poor (-1.41), barrel_rate_vs_lhp Poor (-1.37), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-1.30) |
| 8. Richie Palacios | 2B | 3.98 | -0.296 | whiff_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.31), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Poor (-1.30), contact_xwoba_vs_fastball Poor (-1.23) |
| 9. Taylor Walls | SS | 3.90 | -0.910 | hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-2.81), bat_speed Poor (-2.31), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Poor (-1.91) |