MLB Prediction System

Game Forensics

2026-09-30 · per game, per club, per hitter

slate 2026-09-30games 4

Per game

Every stage, every club edge

Each game expands to show the four forecast stages, the gates, the club-level KPI edges the model consumed and both lineups with their strongest readings. Composite z averages a hitter's KPI standard scores; a positive number means above the qualified-population mean on balance.

BOS @ NYY · final 2-9

Club KPI edges

KPI	BOS	NYY	Edge (H-A)	A spread	H spread
batter_barrel_rate_vs_breaking	-0.047	+0.160	+0.207	0.9188	0.6486
batter_barrel_rate_vs_fastball	-0.185	+0.535	+0.720	0.7514	1.0113
batter_barrel_rate_vs_lhp	+0.285	-0.127	-0.411	0.9096	0.4398
batter_barrel_rate_vs_offspeed	+0.570	+0.346	-0.223	1.2808	0.7525
batter_barrel_rate_vs_rhp	-0.112	+0.606	+0.717	0.8636	0.7343
batter_bat_speed	-0.108	+0.283	+0.391	0.9263	0.6492
batter_contact_rate_vs_breaking	+0.151	-0.566	-0.717	1.1551	0.8166
batter_contact_xwoba	-0.094	+0.481	+0.575	0.9068	0.8644
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_breaking	-0.123	+0.437	+0.560	0.9142	0.7862
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_fastball	-0.166	+0.494	+0.660	0.6677	0.9074
batter_exit_velocity_vs_fastball	-0.320	+0.501	+0.820	0.8832	0.5451
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball	+0.045	+0.627	+0.583	0.7643	0.6488
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_slider	+0.084	+0.387	+0.302	0.823	0.8352
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking	-0.410	+0.710	+1.120	0.7972	0.7323
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball	-0.254	+0.458	+0.712	0.7968	0.4926
batter_home_run_rate	-0.041	+0.472	+0.513	0.6833	0.8043
batter_strikeout_rate	+0.102	-0.464	-0.566	0.8032	0.9927
batter_walk_rate	-0.106	+0.548	+0.654	0.8821	0.6353
batter_whiff_rate_vs_breaking	+0.217	-0.421	-0.638	1.0241	0.7067
batter_whiff_rate_vs_fastball	-0.128	-0.261	-0.133	0.8629	1.0048
batter_whiff_rate_vs_lhp	-0.028	-0.207	-0.179	1.0223	0.8111
batter_whiff_rate_vs_offspeed	+0.101	-0.344	-0.445	0.794	0.8469
batter_whiff_rate_vs_rhp	+0.168	-0.324	-0.491	0.7439	0.9576
pitcher_barrel_rate_allowed	+0.569	+3.016	+2.447	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_lhh	+0.270	+0.844	+0.573	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_rhh	+0.642	+3.057	+2.415	-	-
pitcher_contact_xwoba_allowed	+0.162	+2.652	+2.490	-	-
pitcher_ground_ball_rate_induced	+0.630	+0.947	+0.318	-	-
pitcher_hard_hit_rate_allowed	-0.048	+2.191	+2.239	-	-
pitcher_home_run_rate_allowed	+0.807	+2.055	+1.248	-	-
pitcher_release_speed	-1.032	-0.843	+0.189	-	-
pitcher_strikeout_rate	-0.162	+0.132	+0.294	-	-
pitcher_walk_rate	+1.096	+0.590	-0.506	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate	-0.469	-0.219	+0.251	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_breaking	+0.485	-0.480	-0.965	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_fastball	-1.137	+0.450	+1.587	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_lhh	-0.209	-0.482	-0.273	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_rhh	-0.749	-0.171	+0.578	-	-

Lineups and their strongest readings

Batter	Pos	Proj PA	Composite z	Three strongest KPI readings
BOS lineup vs Max Fried
1. Jahmai Jones	DH	4.65	-0.219	contact_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-2.39), whiff_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-1.60), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Poor (-1.31)
2. Adley Rutschman	C	4.55	+0.346	whiff_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+1.74), whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+1.45), whiff_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.39)
3. Willson Contreras	1B	4.45	+0.477	barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+3.29), barrel_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+2.16), contact_xwoba Very good (+1.76)
4. Wilyer Abreu	RF	4.35	+0.735	ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Very good (+2.00), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+1.91), barrel_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.58)
5. Ceddanne Rafaela	CF	4.25	-0.379	walk_rate Poor (-1.83), barrel_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-1.29), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Good (+1.24)
6. Caleb Durbin	3B	4.15	-0.515	exit_velocity_vs_fastball Poor (-2.25), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-2.20), contact_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+2.01)
7. Nick Sogard	2B	4.05	-0.183	hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-1.38), exit_velocity_vs_fastball Below average (-1.13), bat_speed Below average (-0.99)
8. Trevor Story	SS	3.98	-0.517	strikeout_rate Poor (-1.64), walk_rate Poor (-1.47), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Poor (-1.42)
9. Nate Eaton	LF	3.90	+0.000	barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Average (+0.00), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Average (+0.00), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Average (+0.00)
NYY lineup vs Sonny Gray
1. Ben Rice	DH	4.65	+0.831	home_run_rate Very good (+2.65), barrel_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+2.15), contact_xwoba_vs_fastball Very good (+2.07)
2. Cody Bellinger	LF	4.55	+0.273	ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Very good (+1.76), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Good (+1.25), strikeout_rate Good (+1.07)
3. Luis Garcia	1B	4.45	+0.000	barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Average (+0.00), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Average (+0.00), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Average (+0.00)
4. Spencer Jones	RF	4.35	+0.285	whiff_rate_vs_rhp Poor (-2.59), barrel_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+2.40), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.37)
5. George Lombard Jr.	SS	4.25	-0.030	whiff_rate_vs_fastball Below average (-1.23), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Average (+0.45), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Average (+0.10)
6. Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2B	4.15	-0.101	whiff_rate_vs_lhp Poor (-1.60), strikeout_rate Below average (-1.31), barrel_rate_vs_breaking Good (+1.05)
7. Trent Grisham	CF	4.05	+0.482	walk_rate Very good (+1.33), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Good (+1.24), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Good (+1.17)
8. Austin Wells	C	3.98	-0.068	contact_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-1.54), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.33), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Poor (-1.21)
9. Ryan McMahon	3B	3.90	-0.069	whiff_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-1.54), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.38), strikeout_rate Below average (-1.22)

CHC @ SD · final 1-4

Club KPI edges

KPI	CHC	SD	Edge (H-A)	A spread	H spread
batter_barrel_rate_vs_breaking	-0.073	+0.171	+0.244	1.0442	0.7261
batter_barrel_rate_vs_fastball	-0.083	+0.192	+0.276	0.9962	0.7592
batter_barrel_rate_vs_lhp	-0.114	-0.009	+0.106	0.7318	0.8523
batter_barrel_rate_vs_offspeed	+0.257	+0.357	+0.100	1.0667	0.9307
batter_barrel_rate_vs_rhp	+0.022	+0.144	+0.123	1.0355	0.7711
batter_bat_speed	-0.179	+0.335	+0.514	0.7274	0.5719
batter_contact_rate_vs_breaking	-0.126	+0.064	+0.190	0.9868	0.4814
batter_contact_xwoba	-0.029	+0.218	+0.248	0.9768	0.8359
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_breaking	+0.143	-0.037	-0.181	1.1729	0.8267
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_fastball	-0.183	+0.361	+0.544	0.7177	0.8945
batter_exit_velocity_vs_fastball	-0.064	+0.536	+0.600	0.5353	0.8562
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball	+0.454	-0.299	-0.754	0.5952	0.9622
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_slider	+0.476	-0.112	-0.588	1.1537	0.6438
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking	+0.055	+0.186	+0.131	0.9331	1.0375
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball	-0.068	+0.575	+0.643	0.6083	0.9478
batter_home_run_rate	+0.321	+0.155	-0.166	1.1148	0.6743
batter_strikeout_rate	+0.195	+0.110	-0.085	1.0617	0.3179
batter_walk_rate	+0.670	+0.087	-0.582	0.8193	0.6697
batter_whiff_rate_vs_breaking	+0.237	+0.130	-0.107	0.7079	0.2266
batter_whiff_rate_vs_fastball	+0.483	+0.062	-0.421	1.1275	0.7938
batter_whiff_rate_vs_lhp	+0.413	-0.029	-0.442	1.0303	0.5499
batter_whiff_rate_vs_offspeed	-0.075	-0.111	-0.036	0.8479	0.3907
batter_whiff_rate_vs_rhp	+0.245	-0.030	-0.275	0.9144	0.2204
pitcher_barrel_rate_allowed	-0.070	-0.670	-0.600	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_lhh	+0.616	-0.868	-1.484	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_rhh	-0.786	+0.000	+0.786	-	-
pitcher_contact_xwoba_allowed	-0.938	-0.153	+0.785	-	-
pitcher_ground_ball_rate_induced	-0.145	-1.089	-0.943	-	-
pitcher_hard_hit_rate_allowed	-0.502	+0.015	+0.516	-	-
pitcher_home_run_rate_allowed	-0.662	+0.729	+1.391	-	-
pitcher_release_speed	-0.370	-0.295	+0.075	-	-
pitcher_strikeout_rate	+0.448	+1.152	+0.704	-	-
pitcher_walk_rate	+1.343	+0.943	-0.400	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate	+0.634	-0.775	-1.409	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_breaking	+0.482	+0.218	-0.265	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_fastball	-1.245	-0.652	+0.592	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_lhh	+0.330	-0.676	-1.006	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_rhh	+0.879	-0.612	-1.492	-	-

Lineups and their strongest readings

Batter	Pos	Proj PA	Composite z	Three strongest KPI readings
CHC lineup vs Nick Pivetta
1. Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	4.65	+0.939	home_run_rate Very good (+2.73), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Very good (+2.62), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Very good (+2.39)
2. Alex Bregman	DH	4.55	+0.324	whiff_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.84), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+1.69), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Very good (+1.63)
3. Michael Busch	1B	4.45	-0.030	whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Poor (-1.60), walk_rate Very good (+1.52), bat_speed Poor (-1.37)
4. Seiya Suzuki	RF	4.35	+0.474	walk_rate Very good (+1.46), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Very good (+1.42), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Good (+1.25)
5. Ian Happ	LF	4.25	+0.244	walk_rate Very good (+1.47), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Very good (+1.44), strikeout_rate Below average (-1.35)
6. Nico Hoerner	2B	4.15	-0.293	strikeout_rate Very good (+2.34), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+2.10), whiff_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+2.03)
7. Matt Shaw	3B	4.05	-0.217	barrel_rate_vs_lhp Below average (-0.93), barrel_rate_vs_fastball Below average (-0.85), contact_xwoba Below average (-0.82)
8. Carson Kelly	C	3.98	-0.120	whiff_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.56), barrel_rate_vs_rhp Poor (-1.21), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Below average (-1.08)
9. Dansby Swanson	SS	3.90	-0.326	whiff_rate_vs_lhp Poor (-1.49), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Below average (-1.33), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Poor (-1.18)
SD lineup vs Kevin Gausman
1. Fernando Tatis Jr.	RF	4.65	+0.711	barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+2.48), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.96), exit_velocity_vs_fastball Very good (+1.55)
2. Dustin Harris	LF	4.55	-0.012	whiff_rate_vs_fastball Good (+1.17), barrel_rate_vs_rhp Below average (-1.14), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Average (-0.31)
3. Manny Machado	3B	4.45	+0.285	hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.75), exit_velocity_vs_fastball Very good (+1.71), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Poor (-1.63)
4. Ty France	1B	4.35	+0.123	hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.64), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Below average (-1.12), home_run_rate Good (+0.83)
5. Jackson Merrill	CF	4.25	+0.621	contact_xwoba_vs_fastball Very good (+1.98), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.64), contact_xwoba Very good (+1.56)
6. Xander Bogaerts	SS	4.15	-0.151	ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.04), walk_rate Very good (+1.41), barrel_rate_vs_lhp Poor (-1.25)
7. Ethan Salas	C	4.05	+0.000	barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Average (+0.00), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Average (+0.00), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Average (+0.00)
8. Austin Hays	DH	3.98	-0.046	whiff_rate_vs_lhp Below average (-0.73), barrel_rate_vs_lhp Average (-0.34), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Average (+0.00)
9. Jake Cronenworth	2B	3.90	-0.458	barrel_rate_vs_lhp Poor (-1.52), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Below average (-1.38), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Good (+1.24)

CHW @ HOU · final 7-3

Club KPI edges

KPI	CHW	HOU	Edge (H-A)	A spread	H spread
batter_barrel_rate_vs_breaking	-0.000	+0.336	+0.336	1.1203	1.1643
batter_barrel_rate_vs_fastball	+0.473	-0.127	-0.600	1.2492	0.8358
batter_barrel_rate_vs_lhp	+0.165	+0.076	-0.088	1.1623	0.6403
batter_barrel_rate_vs_offspeed	+0.130	+0.279	+0.149	1.1314	0.9532
batter_barrel_rate_vs_rhp	+0.342	+0.155	-0.187	1.2355	0.9202
batter_bat_speed	-0.222	+0.280	+0.502	1.1706	1.2415
batter_contact_rate_vs_breaking	-0.093	+0.030	+0.123	1.0949	0.9977
batter_contact_xwoba	+0.356	+0.164	-0.193	0.9415	1.1855
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_breaking	-0.010	+0.165	+0.175	0.8765	1.1776
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_fastball	+0.432	-0.026	-0.458	0.9291	1.2613
batter_exit_velocity_vs_fastball	+0.135	+0.077	-0.058	1.0232	1.0254
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball	+0.150	-0.024	-0.174	1.2746	1.2126
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_slider	-0.070	-0.044	+0.026	1.1865	0.9611
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking	+0.219	-0.234	-0.452	1.0949	0.8494
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball	+0.193	-0.015	-0.208	0.8719	0.9785
batter_home_run_rate	+0.260	+0.692	+0.431	1.2235	0.775
batter_strikeout_rate	-0.188	+0.272	+0.460	1.2093	0.6665
batter_walk_rate	+0.493	-0.138	-0.630	1.0995	1.2068
batter_whiff_rate_vs_breaking	+0.192	-0.051	-0.243	1.3215	1.026
batter_whiff_rate_vs_fastball	-0.764	+0.218	+0.982	1.4112	0.6131
batter_whiff_rate_vs_lhp	-0.279	+0.073	+0.352	1.3723	0.725
batter_whiff_rate_vs_offspeed	+0.005	+0.061	+0.056	1.012	1.0881
batter_whiff_rate_vs_rhp	-0.203	+0.078	+0.281	1.3514	0.7935
pitcher_barrel_rate_allowed	-0.691	+0.932	+1.623	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_lhh	-1.057	-0.312	+0.745	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_rhh	+0.104	+1.628	+1.523	-	-
pitcher_contact_xwoba_allowed	+0.063	+1.312	+1.249	-	-
pitcher_ground_ball_rate_induced	-0.996	+2.188	+3.185	-	-
pitcher_hard_hit_rate_allowed	-0.088	+0.407	+0.494	-	-
pitcher_home_run_rate_allowed	+0.300	+0.552	+0.252	-	-
pitcher_release_speed	-0.117	+1.097	+1.213	-	-
pitcher_strikeout_rate	+0.693	+1.041	+0.348	-	-
pitcher_walk_rate	+0.038	-1.391	-1.429	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate	-0.119	+0.474	+0.593	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_breaking	-0.267	-0.124	+0.143	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_fastball	+0.549	+0.876	+0.327	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_lhh	-0.477	+1.291	+1.768	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_rhh	+0.368	-0.683	-1.051	-	-

Lineups and their strongest readings

Batter	Pos	Proj PA	Composite z	Three strongest KPI readings
CHW lineup vs Hunter Brown
1. Sam Antonacci	LF	4.65	-0.071	whiff_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+2.29), whiff_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+1.73), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Poor (-1.56)
2. Kyle Teel	C	4.55	-0.090	whiff_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.07), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Average (+0.00), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Average (+0.00)
3. Miguel Vargas	3B	4.45	+1.043	walk_rate Very good (+2.02), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.83), barrel_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+1.69)
4. Munetaka Murakami	1B	4.35	+0.714	whiff_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-3.27), barrel_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+3.16), barrel_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+3.14)
5. Andrew Benintendi	DH	4.25	+0.040	whiff_rate_vs_lhp Poor (-1.40), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Good (+1.01), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Good (+1.01)
6. Tristan Peters	CF	4.15	-0.382	exit_velocity_vs_fastball Poor (-1.90), bat_speed Poor (-1.38), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-1.17)
7. Chase Meidroth	2B	4.05	-0.270	bat_speed Poor (-2.07), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Good (+1.29), whiff_rate_vs_breaking Good (+1.14)
8. Braden Montgomery	RF	3.98	-0.458	ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.61), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Poor (-1.34), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Below average (-1.28)
9. Colson Montgomery	SS	3.90	+0.046	strikeout_rate Poor (-2.35), contact_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-2.24), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.12)
HOU lineup vs Sean Burke
1. Jeremy Peña	SS	4.65	-0.268	whiff_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-1.87), walk_rate Poor (-1.40), whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Poor (-1.40)
2. Yordan Alvarez	LF	4.55	+1.769	contact_xwoba Very good (+2.97), barrel_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+2.97), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Very good (+2.94)
3. Isaac Paredes	DH	4.45	+0.027	ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+2.57), bat_speed Poor (-1.65), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.57)
4. Jose Altuve	2B	4.35	-0.550	hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-1.93), bat_speed Poor (-1.49), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Poor (-1.46)
5. Yainer Diaz	C	4.25	+0.006	contact_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.86), walk_rate Poor (-1.84), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Poor (-1.67)
6. Christian Walker	1B	4.15	-0.025	home_run_rate Good (+1.23), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Good (+1.22), whiff_rate_vs_breaking Below average (-1.11)
7. Lucas Spence	CF	4.05	+0.000	barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Average (+0.00), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Average (+0.00), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Average (+0.00)
8. Cam Smith	RF	3.98	+0.070	bat_speed Very good (+2.24), whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Poor (-1.95), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+1.79)
9. Nick Allen	3B	3.90	-0.233	contact_xwoba_vs_fastball Poor (-1.35), barrel_rate_vs_fastball Below average (-1.14), exit_velocity_vs_fastball Below average (-1.10)

PHI @ ATL · final 4-3

Club KPI edges

KPI	PHI	ATL	Edge (H-A)	A spread	H spread
batter_barrel_rate_vs_breaking	-0.035	+0.565	+0.600	1.0113	1.0757
batter_barrel_rate_vs_fastball	-0.202	+0.284	+0.486	0.8739	1.003
batter_barrel_rate_vs_lhp	-0.056	+0.050	+0.107	0.7086	0.9369
batter_barrel_rate_vs_offspeed	+0.322	+0.487	+0.165	1.2177	0.9105
batter_barrel_rate_vs_rhp	-0.039	+0.608	+0.647	1.0095	1.0256
batter_bat_speed	+0.229	+0.505	+0.276	0.8166	0.9824
batter_contact_rate_vs_breaking	+0.177	-0.057	-0.234	1.2866	0.6074
batter_contact_xwoba	+0.282	+0.377	+0.095	0.9972	1.0961
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_breaking	+0.070	+0.382	+0.312	0.8457	0.8456
batter_contact_xwoba_vs_fastball	+0.303	+0.256	-0.047	1.089	0.9252
batter_exit_velocity_vs_fastball	+0.346	+0.343	-0.003	0.8778	0.7459
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball	-0.337	+0.295	+0.633	1.1951	0.9092
batter_ground_ball_rate_vs_slider	+0.154	+0.135	-0.018	1.1539	0.6782
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking	+0.120	+0.209	+0.089	0.6198	1.1801
batter_hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball	+0.456	+0.349	-0.107	0.5322	0.9922
batter_home_run_rate	-0.026	+0.484	+0.509	1.2385	0.8781
batter_strikeout_rate	+0.119	+0.177	+0.058	0.8326	0.898
batter_walk_rate	-0.001	-0.326	-0.325	1.3973	0.791
batter_whiff_rate_vs_breaking	+0.186	+0.257	+0.070	1.1087	0.6299
batter_whiff_rate_vs_fastball	+0.084	-0.084	-0.167	0.6098	0.7415
batter_whiff_rate_vs_lhp	+0.060	+0.294	+0.234	1.1158	0.8577
batter_whiff_rate_vs_offspeed	+0.039	+0.508	+0.469	0.8942	0.8415
batter_whiff_rate_vs_rhp	+0.072	+0.048	-0.024	0.9193	0.5799
pitcher_barrel_rate_allowed	+0.100	+0.606	+0.506	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_lhh	+2.001	+0.720	-1.281	-	-
pitcher_barrel_rate_vs_rhh	-1.012	+0.177	+1.189	-	-
pitcher_contact_xwoba_allowed	-0.175	+0.034	+0.210	-	-
pitcher_ground_ball_rate_induced	+2.605	+0.296	-2.309	-	-
pitcher_hard_hit_rate_allowed	-1.278	+0.389	+1.666	-	-
pitcher_home_run_rate_allowed	+1.061	-0.360	-1.421	-	-
pitcher_release_speed	+0.309	-0.071	-0.380	-	-
pitcher_strikeout_rate	+1.006	-0.052	-1.057	-	-
pitcher_walk_rate	+1.879	+0.718	-1.161	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate	+1.549	-0.446	-1.994	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_breaking	+1.462	+0.000	-1.462	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_fastball	-1.594	+0.407	+2.001	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_lhh	+1.756	-0.146	-1.903	-	-
pitcher_whiff_rate_vs_rhh	+1.198	-0.726	-1.924	-	-

Lineups and their strongest readings

Batter	Pos	Proj PA	Composite z	Three strongest KPI readings
PHI lineup vs Tyler Mahle
1. Trea Turner	SS	4.65	-0.315	contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Poor (-1.20), barrel_rate_vs_breaking Below average (-0.98), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Below average (-0.97)
2. Kyle Schwarber	DH	4.55	+0.892	barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+3.35), home_run_rate Very good (+2.72), contact_xwoba Very good (+2.38)
3. Bryce Harper	RF	4.45	+0.411	walk_rate Very good (+2.35), contact_xwoba_vs_fastball Very good (+2.01), contact_xwoba Very good (+1.41)
4. Alec Bohm	1B	4.35	+0.306	contact_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+2.25), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+1.77), whiff_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.47)
5. Bryson Stott	2B	4.25	+0.171	whiff_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.88), whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+1.54), contact_rate_vs_breaking Good (+1.31)
6. Brandon Marsh	LF	4.15	+0.050	ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Very good (+2.12), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Poor (-1.72), barrel_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.35)
7. Edmundo Sosa	3B	4.05	-0.141	walk_rate Poor (-1.84), ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Below average (-0.95), contact_xwoba_vs_breaking Good (+0.83)
8. Justin Crawford	CF	3.98	-0.473	ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-2.81), home_run_rate Poor (-1.82), whiff_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.75)
9. J.T. Realmuto	C	3.90	-0.094	barrel_rate_vs_lhp Below average (-1.14), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Below average (-0.85), barrel_rate_vs_fastball Below average (-0.82)
ATL lineup vs Cristopher Sánchez
1. Ronald Acuña Jr.	RF	4.65	+0.530	barrel_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.67), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+1.58), contact_xwoba Very good (+1.41)
2. Drake Baldwin	DH	4.55	+0.703	barrel_rate_vs_breaking Very good (+2.13), barrel_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+1.90), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+1.65)
3. Ozzie Albies	2B	4.45	-0.363	ground_ball_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+2.18), hard_hit_rate_vs_breaking Poor (-2.04), contact_xwoba Poor (-1.73)
4. Matt Olson	1B	4.35	+0.964	home_run_rate Very good (+2.44), hard_hit_rate_vs_fastball Very good (+2.10), barrel_rate_vs_rhp Very good (+1.86)
5. Mauricio Dubón	LF	4.25	-0.095	whiff_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+2.29), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Very good (+1.92), strikeout_rate Very good (+1.72)
6. Austin Riley	3B	4.15	+0.135	strikeout_rate Poor (-1.66), bat_speed Very good (+1.58), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Poor (-1.36)
7. Michael Harris II	CF	4.05	+0.428	barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Very good (+1.98), walk_rate Poor (-1.90), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Very good (+1.44)
8. Sean Murphy	C	3.98	+0.019	whiff_rate_vs_fastball Average (+0.44), barrel_rate_vs_offspeed Average (+0.00), ground_ball_rate_vs_slider Average (+0.00)
9. Ha-Seong Kim	SS	3.90	+0.009	barrel_rate_vs_lhp Below average (-0.78), whiff_rate_vs_lhp Good (+0.76), whiff_rate_vs_fastball Average (+0.22)

Edge is home club minus away club on that KPI, in standard deviations, after plate-appearance weighting. Spread is the dispersion inside a club, which a mean alone discards and which is roughly three times larger than the between-game variation of the mean itself.
generated 2026-10-06T13:58:32.770021+00:00 · kpi_slate_report_v3