MLB Prediction System

KPI Player Effects

How each KPI adds or removes a hit, a strikeout, a walk or a home run, per player, against the arm he actually faces

Slate 20260929Games 4Schema kpi_player_effects_v2Built 2026-10-06 13:58Z

What this document measures

Every counting stat below has a KPI on both sides of the matchup, measured on the same denominator: a plate appearance. That is what lets the hitter's reading and the starter's reading be combined instead of listed side by side. The combination is the standard Log5 odds ratio, which is exactly additive in log odds, so the hitter's push and the pitcher's push separate cleanly and the remainder is reported rather than absorbed.

Hits use a derived KPI. Hit rate is not in config/kpi_registry.json: registering it would move the registry hash recorded in the model manifest and fail the live layer closed until a retrain. It is computed with the same strict as-of cutoff and the same shrinkage, stored in its own namespace, and never read by the runtime.

These per-player numbers are measured, not published. The live KPI layer moves team runs and the win probability. The hitter lines in the artifact were then scaled by one club-wide ratio, identical for the leadoff hitter and the ninth bat. The per-hitter columns here are what that single ratio discards.

The whole staff, not only the starter. A hitter takes roughly four in ten of his plate appearances against relievers. Each club's bullpen here is the pregame bullpen: the seven busiest healthy relievers of the last 30 days, the same arms the KPI forecast weighted and the simulation pitched, each sharing the relief work by the batters faced the forecast gave him. The bullpen's workload tonight is the club's real mean staff batters faced minus the starter's projection. The published staff alone holds only the relievers one simulation draw used, so it is shown beside the bullpen for comparison, not used.

Reading a delta. Own skill is measured against the league. The opponent effect is measured against the hitter's own rate, which is the only one that may adjust a published line, because the published line already carries his own skill. Adding both to a published line would count the hitter twice.

Coverage. 72 hitter-versus-starter pairings; 57 have both sides above their sample floor on hits and 63 carry a non-zero hit adjustment. A side below its floor falls back to the league rate and is marked n<floor, which is a stated absence of evidence rather than a measured zero. All four outcome metrics have value documents. Handedness source: model bundle pitcher_hands.json.

Largest per-player movements on the slate

Hitter	Club	Metric	Starter faced (+ bullpen)	Published	KPI adjusted, whole staff	Δ	Hitter band	Pitcher band	Game
Kyle Schwarber	PHI	Strikeouts	Chris Sale	1.617	1.958	+0.341	Poor	Very good	20260929_PHI@ATL
Roman Anthony	BOS	Strikeouts	Cam Schlittler	1.515	1.849	+0.334	Below average	Very good	20260929_BOS@NYY
Matt Olson	ATL	Strikeouts	Jesús Luzardo	1.260	1.589	+0.328	Average	Very good	20260929_PHI@ATL
Drake Baldwin	ATL	Strikeouts	Jesús Luzardo	1.176	1.498	+0.323	Average	Very good	20260929_PHI@ATL
Bryce Harper	PHI	Strikeouts	Chris Sale	1.273	1.591	+0.317	Average	Very good	20260929_PHI@ATL
Michael Harris II	ATL	Strikeouts	Jesús Luzardo	1.116	1.432	+0.316	Average	Very good	20260929_PHI@ATL
Willson Contreras	BOS	Strikeouts	Cam Schlittler	1.371	1.683	+0.312	Below average	Very good	20260929_BOS@NYY
Austin Riley	ATL	Strikeouts	Jesús Luzardo	1.326	1.632	+0.306	Poor	Very good	20260929_PHI@ATL
Trevor Story	BOS	Strikeouts	Cam Schlittler	1.495	1.799	+0.304	Poor	Very good	20260929_BOS@NYY
Ceddanne Rafaela	BOS	Strikeouts	Cam Schlittler	1.239	1.541	+0.302	Average	Very good	20260929_BOS@NYY
Ronald Acuña Jr.	ATL	Strikeouts	Jesús Luzardo	1.077	1.368	+0.291	Average	Very good	20260929_PHI@ATL
Wilyer Abreu	BOS	Strikeouts	Cam Schlittler	1.167	1.451	+0.284	Average	Very good	20260929_BOS@NYY
Mike Yastrzemski	ATL	Strikeouts	Jesús Luzardo	1.064	1.346	+0.282	Average	Very good	20260929_PHI@ATL
Jarren Duran	BOS	Strikeouts	Cam Schlittler	1.275	1.554	+0.279	Below average	Very good	20260929_BOS@NYY
Derek Hill	PHI	Strikeouts	Chris Sale	1.281	1.555	+0.274	Poor	Very good	20260929_PHI@ATL
Spencer Jones	NYY	Strikeouts	Payton Tolle	1.775	2.047	+0.272	Poor	Very good	20260929_BOS@NYY
Trea Turner	PHI	Strikeouts	Chris Sale	1.083	1.354	+0.271	Average	Very good	20260929_PHI@ATL
Nick Sogard	BOS	Strikeouts	Cam Schlittler	1.097	1.364	+0.267	Average	Very good	20260929_BOS@NYY
Adley Rutschman	BOS	Strikeouts	Cam Schlittler	0.990	1.246	+0.256	Good	Very good	20260929_BOS@NYY
Ha-Seong Kim	ATL	Strikeouts	Jesús Luzardo	0.921	1.169	+0.248	averagen<floor	Very good	20260929_PHI@ATL

Per game

Club Player

20260929_BOS@NYY — team layer withheld (no gate recorded); runs moved away 0 / home 0

Payton Tolle (LHP, 23.4 BF)
H 0.2082 Average · SO 0.2763 Very good · BB 0.0710 Good · HR 0.0272 Average

Cam Schlittler (RHP, 22.6 BF)
H 0.1805 Very good · SO 0.3029 Very good · BB 0.0701 Good · HR 0.0249 Good

BOS hitters vs Cam Schlittler and the bullpen

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to BOS hitter lines. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Roman Anthony	DH	Cam Schlittler + bullpen	4.47	0.835 → 0.737	-0.098	1.515 → 1.849	+0.334	0.463 → 0.401	-0.062	0.134 → 0.112	-0.022

Willson Contreras	1B	Cam Schlittler + bullpen	3.98	0.743 → 0.656	-0.087	1.371 → 1.683	+0.312	0.387 → 0.336	-0.052	0.193 → 0.162	-0.031

Ceddanne Rafaela	CF	Cam Schlittler + bullpen	3.95	0.882 → 0.781	-0.101	1.239 → 1.541	+0.302	0.180 → 0.155	-0.025	0.126 → 0.105	-0.021

Adley Rutschman	C	Cam Schlittler + bullpen	4.20	0.793 → 0.700	-0.094	0.990 → 1.246	+0.256	0.367 → 0.317	-0.050	0.151 → 0.127	-0.025

Wilyer Abreu	RF	Cam Schlittler + bullpen	4.09	0.759 → 0.669	-0.089	1.167 → 1.451	+0.284	0.401 → 0.347	-0.054	0.150 → 0.126	-0.024

Nick Sogard	2B	Cam Schlittler + bullpen	4.03	0.761 → 0.671	-0.090	1.097 → 1.364	+0.267	0.410 → 0.355	-0.055	0.116 → 0.097	-0.019

Jarren Duran	LF	Cam Schlittler + bullpen	3.55	0.626 → 0.551	-0.075	1.275 → 1.554	+0.279	0.248 → 0.213	-0.034	0.130 → 0.109	-0.021

Trevor Story	SS	Cam Schlittler + bullpen	3.65	0.717 → 0.633	-0.084	1.495 → 1.799	+0.304	0.193 → 0.166	-0.027	0.104 → 0.087	-0.017

Caleb Durbin	3B	Cam Schlittler + bullpen	3.36	0.634 → 0.559	-0.075	0.674 → 0.857	+0.183	0.269 → 0.232	-0.037	0.116 → 0.097	-0.019

BOS starter against the NYY lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Payton Tolle	Starter	NYY	23.37	4.913 → 4.948	+0.035	7.051 → 7.594	+0.543	1.422 → 1.500	+0.078	0.455 → 0.516	+0.062

BOS bullpen: the full relief corps (13 arms)

Exposure. Starter 23.4 batters faced, bullpen 14.2 (37.7% of the game), from the club's real 37.5 staff batters faced per game over 25 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 26.7% across 2 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Erik Miller	Setup Man	published staff, recent relief	43	9	11.1%	1.57
Greg Weissert	Reliever	recent relief	41	9	10.6%	1.50
Wyatt Olds	Reliever	recent relief	41	8	10.6%	1.50
Jovani Morán	Reliever	recent relief	40	8	10.4%	1.47
Alec Gamboa	Reliever	recent relief	36	7	9.4%	1.33
Raymond Burgos	Reliever	recent relief	28	4	7.5%	1.06
Aroldis Chapman	Closer	published staff, recent relief	27	7	7.2%	1.03
Garrett Whitlock	Reliever	recent relief	27	8	7.2%	1.03
Patrick Sandoval	Reliever	recent relief	26	2	7.0%	0.99
Brayan Bello	Reliever	recent relief	22	2	6.0%	0.86
Jedixson Paez	Reliever	recent relief	18	1	5.1%	0.72
Jake Bennett	Reliever	recent relief	14	1	4.1%	0.58
Tyron Guerrero	Reliever	recent relief	12	3	3.6%	0.51

BOS relievers against the NYY lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Erik Miller	Setup Man	NYY (11% of relief)	1.57	0.760 → 0.765	+0.005	1.341 → 1.441	+0.100	0.772 → 0.812	+0.040	0.046 → 0.053	+0.006

Greg Weissert	Reliever	NYY (11% of relief)	1.50	0.326 → 0.328	+0.002	0.349 → 0.378	+0.029	0.124 → 0.131	+0.007	0.046 → 0.052	+0.006

Wyatt Olds	Reliever	NYY (11% of relief)	1.50	0.326 → 0.329	+0.002	0.333 → 0.361	+0.028	0.134 → 0.141	+0.007	0.046 → 0.052	+0.006

Jovani Morán	Reliever	NYY (10% of relief)	1.47	0.276 → 0.278	+0.002	0.378 → 0.408	+0.030	0.162 → 0.171	+0.009	0.046 → 0.053	+0.006

Alec Gamboa	Reliever	NYY (9% of relief)	1.33	0.285 → 0.287	+0.002	0.263 → 0.286	+0.023	0.120 → 0.126	+0.006	0.034 → 0.039	+0.005

Raymond Burgos	Reliever	NYY (7% of relief)	1.06	0.230 → 0.232	+0.002	0.235 → 0.254	+0.020	0.094 → 0.099	+0.005	0.032 → 0.037	+0.004

Aroldis Chapman	Closer	NYY (7% of relief)	1.03	0.508 → 0.511	+0.004	1.476 → 1.585	+0.109	0.473 → 0.498	+0.025	0.043 → 0.049	+0.006

Garrett Whitlock	Reliever	NYY (7% of relief)	1.03	0.215 → 0.216	+0.002	0.286 → 0.307	+0.022	0.068 → 0.071	+0.004	0.027 → 0.030	+0.004

Patrick Sandoval	Reliever	NYY (7% of relief)	0.99	0.241 → 0.243	+0.002	0.224 → 0.243	+0.019	0.095 → 0.100	+0.005	0.027 → 0.030	+0.004

Brayan Bello	Reliever	NYY (6% of relief)	0.86	0.200 → 0.202	+0.001	0.161 → 0.175	+0.014	0.065 → 0.068	+0.004	0.023 → 0.026	+0.003

Jedixson Paez	Reliever	NYY (5% of relief)	0.72	0.156 → 0.157	+0.001	0.159 → 0.172	+0.013	0.064 → 0.067	+0.003	0.022 → 0.025	+0.003

Jake Bennett	Reliever	NYY (4% of relief)	0.58	0.132 → 0.133	+0.001	0.118 → 0.128	+0.010	0.036 → 0.038	+0.002	0.017 → 0.019	+0.002

Tyron Guerrero	Reliever	NYY (4% of relief)	0.51	0.112 → 0.113	+0.001	0.124 → 0.134	+0.010	0.035 → 0.037	+0.002	0.013 → 0.015	+0.002

NYY hitters vs Payton Tolle and the bullpen

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to NYY hitter lines. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Heliot Ramos	RF	Payton Tolle + bullpen	3.83	0.818 → 0.791	-0.027	1.307 → 1.538	+0.231	0.285 → 0.252	-0.033	0.139 → 0.126	-0.013

George Lombard Jr.	SS	Payton Tolle + bullpen	3.99	0.855 → 0.827	-0.028	1.252 → 1.488	+0.236	0.296 → 0.262	-0.034	0.170 → 0.154	-0.016

Paul Goldschmidt	1B	Payton Tolle + bullpen	4.33	0.949 → 0.918	-0.031	1.246 → 1.480	+0.233	0.318 → 0.281	-0.037	0.213 → 0.194	-0.020

Cody Bellinger	LF	Payton Tolle + bullpen	4.29	0.948 → 0.917	-0.031	0.898 → 1.084	+0.186	0.384 → 0.340	-0.043	0.150 → 0.136	-0.014

Anthony Volpe	2B	Payton Tolle + bullpen	3.88	0.809 → 0.782	-0.027	1.091 → 1.298	+0.207	0.378 → 0.335	-0.043	0.090 → 0.081	-0.008

Ben Rice	DH	Payton Tolle + bullpen	4.15	0.890 → 0.861	-0.029	1.291 → 1.527	+0.237	0.441 → 0.392	-0.049	0.244 → 0.222	-0.022

Amed Rosario	3B	Payton Tolle + bullpen	3.54	0.770 → 0.744	-0.025	1.088 → 1.290	+0.201	0.221 → 0.196	-0.026	0.150 → 0.136	-0.014

Spencer Jones	CF	Payton Tolle + bullpen	3.82	0.831 → 0.803	-0.028	1.775 → 2.047	+0.272	0.290 → 0.257	-0.033	0.154 → 0.139	-0.014

Austin Wells	C	Payton Tolle + bullpen	3.21	0.605 → 0.584	-0.021	1.100 → 1.295	+0.196	0.316 → 0.281	-0.035	0.123 → 0.112	-0.011

NYY starter against the BOS lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Cam Schlittler	Starter	BOS	22.55	2.957 → 2.979	+0.023	8.509 → 8.647	+0.139	1.389 → 1.369	-0.020	0.483 → 0.476	-0.007

NYY bullpen: the full relief corps (6 arms)

Exposure. Starter 22.6 batters faced, bullpen 14.2 (38.6% of the game), from the club's real 36.7 staff batters faced per game over 23 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 38.3% across 3 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
David Bednar	Closer	published staff, recent relief	46	10	20.6%	2.91
John Schreiber	Reliever	recent relief	43	11	19.3%	2.74
Brent Headrick	Setup Man	published staff, recent relief	41	11	18.5%	2.62
Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	published staff, recent relief	37	9	16.8%	2.38
Ryan Yarbrough	Reliever	recent relief	30	5	13.9%	1.96
Will Warren	Reliever	recent relief	23	2	10.9%	1.55

NYY relievers against the BOS lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
David Bednar	Closer	BOS (21% of relief)	2.91	0.758 → 0.764	+0.006	1.165 → 1.185	+0.020	0.288 → 0.284	-0.004	0.048 → 0.047	-0.001

John Schreiber	Reliever	BOS (19% of relief)	2.74	0.571 → 0.575	+0.004	0.484 → 0.493	+0.009	0.271 → 0.267	-0.004	0.081 → 0.080	-0.001

Brent Headrick	Setup Man	BOS (18% of relief)	2.62	0.877 → 0.884	+0.006	1.466 → 1.490	+0.025	0.402 → 0.396	-0.006	0.108 → 0.106	-0.002

Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	BOS (17% of relief)	2.38	1.052 → 1.060	+0.008	1.130 → 1.151	+0.021	0.483 → 0.476	-0.007	0.083 → 0.082	-0.001

Ryan Yarbrough	Reliever	BOS (14% of relief)	1.96	0.408 → 0.411	+0.003	0.381 → 0.389	+0.007	0.167 → 0.165	-0.002	0.046 → 0.046	-0.001

Will Warren	Reliever	BOS (11% of relief)	1.55	0.354 → 0.357	+0.003	0.358 → 0.365	+0.006	0.125 → 0.123	-0.002	0.048 → 0.047	-0.001

20260929_CHC@SD — team layer withheld (no gate recorded); runs moved away 0 / home 0

Matthew Boyd (LHP, 25.4 BF)
H 0.2184 Average · SO 0.1895 Below average · BB 0.0782 Good · HR 0.0296 Average

Michael King (RHP, 24.3 BF)
H 0.2015 Good · SO 0.2111 Average · BB 0.0919 Average · HR 0.0279 Average

CHC hitters vs Michael King and the bullpen

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to CHC hitter lines. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Alex Bregman	DH	Michael King + bullpen	4.13	0.928 → 0.863	-0.065	0.593 → 0.633	+0.040	0.470 → 0.486	+0.016	0.138 → 0.123	-0.015

Seiya Suzuki	RF	Michael King + bullpen	4.40	0.874 → 0.813	-0.061	1.006 → 1.063	+0.058	0.563 → 0.582	+0.019	0.156 → 0.139	-0.017

Ian Happ	LF	Michael King + bullpen	4.11	0.728 → 0.675	-0.053	1.094 → 1.151	+0.057	0.541 → 0.560	+0.018	0.139 → 0.124	-0.015

Pedro Ramirez	3B	Michael King + bullpen	3.88	0.800 → 0.744	-0.056	0.700 → 0.744	+0.044	0.352 → 0.365	+0.013	0.102 → 0.090	-0.011

Michael Busch	1B	Michael King + bullpen	4.20	0.768 → 0.713	-0.055	0.888 → 0.941	+0.052	0.577 → 0.596	+0.019	0.109 → 0.097	-0.012

Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	Michael King + bullpen	4.52	0.922 → 0.858	-0.064	1.056 → 1.115	+0.059	0.564 → 0.584	+0.019	0.232 → 0.207	-0.025

Nico Hoerner	2B	Michael King + bullpen	3.97	0.852 → 0.793	-0.059	0.376 → 0.403	+0.028	0.293 → 0.304	+0.011	0.066 → 0.059	-0.007

Carson Kelly	C	Michael King + bullpen	3.73	0.755 → 0.702	-0.053	0.627 → 0.668	+0.041	0.370 → 0.384	+0.013	0.093 → 0.083	-0.010

Dansby Swanson	SS	Michael King + bullpen	3.65	0.664 → 0.616	-0.048	0.825 → 0.874	+0.048	0.405 → 0.419	+0.014	0.117 → 0.104	-0.013

CHC starter against the SD lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Matthew Boyd	Starter	SD	25.44	5.317 → 5.397	+0.081	3.895 → 3.754	-0.141	2.124 → 2.230	+0.106	0.298 → 0.315	+0.017

CHC bullpen: the full relief corps (13 arms)

Exposure. Starter 25.4 batters faced, bullpen 12.1 (32.2% of the game), from the club's real 37.5 staff batters faced per game over 26 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 24.6% across 2 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Aaron Civale	Reliever	recent relief	59	8	14.0%	1.69
Ryan Rolison	Reliever	recent relief	48	12	11.5%	1.39
Colin Rea	Reliever	recent relief	41	7	10.0%	1.20
Caleb Thielbar	Reliever	recent relief	39	10	9.5%	1.15
Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	published staff, recent relief	39	10	9.5%	1.15
Jacob Webb	Closer	published staff, recent relief	38	9	9.3%	1.12
Ryan Zeferjahn	Reliever	recent relief	37	10	9.0%	1.09
Javier Assad	Reliever	recent relief	26	5	6.6%	0.79
Trent Thornton	Reliever	recent relief	24	6	6.1%	0.74
Edward Cabrera	Reliever	recent relief	21	3	5.4%	0.66
Braxton Garrett	Reliever	recent relief	21	1	5.4%	0.66
Tyler Ferguson	Reliever	recent relief	8	1	2.5%	0.30
Gavin Hollowell	Reliever	recent relief	2	1	1.1%	0.14

CHC relievers against the SD lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Aaron Civale	Reliever	SD (14% of relief)	1.69	0.404 → 0.410	+0.006	0.320 → 0.308	-0.012	0.130 → 0.137	+0.006	0.058 → 0.061	+0.003

Ryan Rolison	Reliever	SD (12% of relief)	1.39	0.297 → 0.301	+0.004	0.308 → 0.297	-0.011	0.140 → 0.147	+0.007	0.039 → 0.042	+0.002

Colin Rea	Reliever	SD (10% of relief)	1.20	0.271 → 0.275	+0.004	0.214 → 0.206	-0.008	0.098 → 0.103	+0.005	0.040 → 0.043	+0.002

Caleb Thielbar	Reliever	SD (10% of relief)	1.15	0.253 → 0.256	+0.004	0.305 → 0.295	-0.010	0.098 → 0.103	+0.005	0.043 → 0.046	+0.003

Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	SD (10% of relief)	1.15	0.590 → 0.599	+0.009	0.902 → 0.871	-0.031	0.396 → 0.415	+0.020	0.113 → 0.120	+0.007

Jacob Webb	Closer	SD (9% of relief)	1.12	0.852 → 0.865	+0.013	1.010 → 0.976	-0.034	0.483 → 0.507	+0.024	0.172 → 0.182	+0.010

Ryan Zeferjahn	Reliever	SD (9% of relief)	1.09	0.206 → 0.209	+0.003	0.318 → 0.308	-0.010	0.126 → 0.132	+0.006	0.030 → 0.032	+0.002

Javier Assad	Reliever	SD (7% of relief)	0.79	0.170 → 0.172	+0.003	0.137 → 0.132	-0.005	0.060 → 0.063	+0.003	0.027 → 0.029	+0.002

Trent Thornton	Reliever	SD (6% of relief)	0.74	0.159 → 0.161	+0.002	0.129 → 0.124	-0.005	0.063 → 0.066	+0.003	0.025 → 0.026	+0.001

Edward Cabrera	Reliever	SD (5% of relief)	0.66	0.149 → 0.151	+0.002	0.135 → 0.130	-0.005	0.065 → 0.068	+0.003	0.024 → 0.026	+0.001

Braxton Garrett	Reliever	SD (5% of relief)	0.66	0.142 → 0.144	+0.002	0.145 → 0.140	-0.005	0.058 → 0.061	+0.003	0.020 → 0.021	+0.001

Tyler Ferguson	Reliever	SD (2% of relief)	0.30	0.065 → 0.066	+0.001	0.067 → 0.064	-0.002	0.027 → 0.028	+0.001	0.009 → 0.010	+0.001

Gavin Hollowell	Reliever	SD (1% of relief)	0.14	0.030 → 0.030	0	0.030 → 0.029	-0.001	0.012 → 0.013	+0.001	0.004 → 0.004	0

SD hitters vs Matthew Boyd and the bullpen

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to SD hitter lines. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Samad Taylor	LF	Matthew Boyd + bullpen	4.03	0.923 → 0.928	+0.005	0.914 → 0.824	-0.090	0.419 → 0.386	-0.034	0.086 → 0.086	0

Fernando Tatis Jr.	RF	Matthew Boyd + bullpen	4.38	1.014 → 1.020	+0.005	0.740 → 0.664	-0.075	0.417 → 0.384	-0.033	0.157 → 0.157	0

Ty France	1B	Matthew Boyd + bullpen	4.11	0.994 → 0.999	+0.005	0.796 → 0.718	-0.079	0.345 → 0.317	-0.028	0.145 → 0.145	0

Manny Machado	3B	Matthew Boyd + bullpen	4.32	0.915 → 0.920	+0.005	0.799 → 0.720	-0.079	0.495 → 0.456	-0.039	0.169 → 0.169	0

Jackson Merrill	CF	Matthew Boyd + bullpen	4.05	0.960 → 0.965	+0.005	0.964 → 0.871	-0.093	0.261 → 0.240	-0.021	0.136 → 0.137	0

Austin Hays	DH	Matthew Boyd + bullpen	3.63	0.867 → 0.872	+0.005	0.826 → 0.745	-0.081	0.229 → 0.211	-0.018	0.106 → 0.106	0

Jake Cronenworth	2B	Matthew Boyd + bullpen	3.75	0.789 → 0.794	+0.004	0.857 → 0.774	-0.084	0.320 → 0.294	-0.026	0.077 → 0.078	0

Xander Bogaerts	SS	Matthew Boyd + bullpen	3.87	0.769 → 0.773	+0.004	0.606 → 0.544	-0.062	0.485 → 0.448	-0.038	0.094 → 0.094	0

Luis Campusano	C	Matthew Boyd + bullpen	3.85	0.815 → 0.820	+0.004	0.745 → 0.671	-0.074	0.437 → 0.403	-0.034	0.115 → 0.115	0

SD starter against the CHC lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Michael King	Starter	CHC	24.25	5.130 → 5.201	+0.071	4.689 → 4.361	-0.327	2.174 → 2.527	+0.353	0.500 → 0.547	+0.047

SD bullpen: the full relief corps (7 arms)

Exposure. Starter 24.3 batters faced, bullpen 13.8 (36.2% of the game), from the club's real 38.0 staff batters faced per game over 26 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 36.0% across 3 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Mason Miller	Closer	published staff, recent relief	58	12	18.8%	2.59
Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	published staff, recent relief	55	14	17.9%	2.46
David Morgan	Reliever	recent relief	52	13	17.0%	2.34
Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	published staff, recent relief	52	12	17.0%	2.34
Yuki Matsui	Reliever	recent relief	47	13	15.4%	2.12
Randy Vásquez	Reliever	recent relief	31	4	10.5%	1.44
Jason Adam	Reliever	recent relief	8	2	3.4%	0.47

SD relievers against the CHC lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Mason Miller	Closer	CHC (19% of relief)	2.59	0.645 → 0.655	+0.009	1.798 → 1.703	-0.095	0.438 → 0.509	+0.071	0.078 → 0.085	+0.007

Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	CHC (18% of relief)	2.46	0.737 → 0.747	+0.010	1.297 → 1.215	-0.082	0.474 → 0.552	+0.078	0.039 → 0.043	+0.004

David Morgan	Reliever	CHC (17% of relief)	2.34	0.517 → 0.524	+0.007	0.548 → 0.511	-0.037	0.264 → 0.305	+0.042	0.060 → 0.066	+0.006

Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	CHC (17% of relief)	2.34	1.004 → 1.018	+0.014	1.372 → 1.281	-0.090	0.384 → 0.447	+0.064	0.110 → 0.120	+0.010

Yuki Matsui	Reliever	CHC (15% of relief)	2.12	0.387 → 0.392	+0.005	0.535 → 0.500	-0.036	0.255 → 0.294	+0.040	0.062 → 0.068	+0.006

Randy Vásquez	Reliever	CHC (10% of relief)	1.44	0.336 → 0.340	+0.004	0.227 → 0.210	-0.017	0.099 → 0.116	+0.017	0.041 → 0.045	+0.004

Jason Adam	Reliever	CHC (3% of relief)	0.47	0.101 → 0.102	+0.001	0.084 → 0.078	-0.006	0.037 → 0.044	+0.006	0.015 → 0.016	+0.001

20260929_CHW@HOU — team layer withheld (no gate recorded); runs moved away 0 / home 0

Hagen Smith (LHP, 18.6 BF)
H 0.2169 averagen<floor · SO 0.2212 averagen<floor · BB 0.0889 averagen<floor · HR 0.0304 averagen<floor

AJ Blubaugh (RHP, 17.5 BF)
H 0.2011 Good · SO 0.2322 Average · BB 0.1003 Below average · HR 0.0313 Average

CHW hitters vs AJ Blubaugh and the bullpen

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to CHW hitter lines. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Sam Antonacci	LF	AJ Blubaugh + bullpen	4.24	0.877 → 0.832	-0.044	0.717 → 0.756	+0.039	0.410 → 0.458	+0.048	0.095 → 0.097	+0.002

Munetaka Murakami	1B	AJ Blubaugh + bullpen	4.53	0.730 → 0.691	-0.039	1.562 → 1.626	+0.064	0.770 → 0.853	+0.083	0.252 → 0.257	+0.006

Kyle Teel	C	AJ Blubaugh + bullpen	4.06	0.747 → 0.709	-0.038	1.396 → 1.465	+0.069	0.503 → 0.562	+0.059	0.145 → 0.149	+0.004

Braden Montgomery	RF	AJ Blubaugh + bullpen	3.84	0.713 → 0.676	-0.037	0.821 → 0.862	+0.042	0.455 → 0.507	+0.052	0.095 → 0.097	+0.002

Tristan Peters	CF	AJ Blubaugh + bullpen	3.72	0.768 → 0.729	-0.039	0.773 → 0.813	+0.040	0.349 → 0.391	+0.041	0.114 → 0.117	+0.003

Miguel Vargas	3B	AJ Blubaugh + bullpen	4.41	0.804 → 0.763	-0.042	0.858 → 0.903	+0.044	0.642 → 0.713	+0.071	0.201 → 0.205	+0.005

Andrew Benintendi	DH	AJ Blubaugh + bullpen	3.64	0.709 → 0.673	-0.037	0.942 → 0.988	+0.045	0.371 → 0.414	+0.043	0.130 → 0.133	+0.003

Chase Meidroth	2B	AJ Blubaugh + bullpen	3.75	0.780 → 0.741	-0.040	0.928 → 0.974	+0.046	0.397 → 0.443	+0.046	0.112 → 0.115	+0.003

Colson Montgomery	SS	AJ Blubaugh + bullpen	3.67	0.643 → 0.609	-0.034	1.378 → 1.434	+0.057	0.377 → 0.422	+0.044	0.181 → 0.185	+0.004

CHW starter against the HOU lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Hagen Smith	Starter	HOU	18.61	4.522 → 4.623	+0.101	7.580 → 7.302	-0.278	0.000 → 0.000	0	0.000 → 0.000	0

CHW bullpen: the full relief corps (6 arms)

Exposure. Starter 18.6 batters faced, bullpen 17.2 (48.0% of the game), from the club's real 35.8 staff batters faced per game over 2 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 51.2% across 3 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Erick Fedde	Reliever	recent relief	33	2	25.4%	4.36
Sean Newcomb	Setup Man	published staff, recent relief	26	3	20.4%	3.51
Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	published staff, recent relief	25	7	19.7%	3.39
Davis Martin	Reliever	recent relief	20	1	16.2%	2.79
Sean Burke	Reliever	recent relief	20	1	16.2%	2.79
Grant Taylor	Closer	published staff	0	0	2.1%	0.36

CHW relievers against the HOU lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Erick Fedde	Reliever	HOU (25% of relief)	4.36	0.983 → 1.004	+0.022	0.742 → 0.713	-0.029	0.377 → 0.368	-0.009	0.151 → 0.182	+0.031

Sean Newcomb	Setup Man	HOU (20% of relief)	3.51	1.852 → 1.894	+0.042	1.692 → 1.631	-0.062	0.669 → 0.653	-0.016	0.036 → 0.044	+0.007

Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	HOU (20% of relief)	3.39	1.004 → 1.026	+0.022	0.896 → 0.863	-0.033	0.272 → 0.265	-0.007	0.080 → 0.097	+0.016

Davis Martin	Reliever	HOU (16% of relief)	2.79	0.642 → 0.656	+0.014	0.559 → 0.538	-0.021	0.216 → 0.211	-0.005	0.072 → 0.087	+0.015

Sean Burke	Reliever	HOU (16% of relief)	2.79	0.575 → 0.588	+0.013	0.705 → 0.680	-0.025	0.249 → 0.243	-0.006	0.080 → 0.096	+0.016

Grant Taylor	Closer	HOU (2% of relief)	0.36	1.098 → 1.123	+0.025	2.353 → 2.275	-0.078	0.550 → 0.537	-0.013	0.098 → 0.118	+0.020

HOU hitters vs Hagen Smith and the bullpen

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to HOU hitter lines. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Jose Altuve	2B	Hagen Smith + bullpen	4.37	0.821 → 0.825	+0.004	1.101 → 1.075	-0.025	0.430 → 0.418	-0.012	0.142 → 0.136	-0.006

Jeremy Peña	SS	Hagen Smith + bullpen	4.51	0.915 → 0.919	+0.004	1.375 → 1.345	-0.030	0.349 → 0.339	-0.010	0.211 → 0.202	-0.009

Isaac Paredes	3B	Hagen Smith + bullpen	4.29	0.760 → 0.763	+0.003	0.727 → 0.709	-0.018	0.573 → 0.557	-0.016	0.169 → 0.161	-0.007

Lucas Spence	CF	Hagen Smith + bullpen	3.87	0.703 → 0.707	+0.003	1.506 → 1.472	-0.034	0.420 → 0.408	-0.012	0.155 → 0.148	-0.007

Yordan Alvarez	DH	Hagen Smith + bullpen	4.44	0.853 → 0.857	+0.004	0.981 → 0.957	-0.023	0.706 → 0.688	-0.018	0.239 → 0.229	-0.010

Yainer Diaz	C	Hagen Smith + bullpen	4.08	0.851 → 0.854	+0.004	0.876 → 0.855	-0.021	0.265 → 0.257	-0.008	0.171 → 0.163	-0.007

Taylor Trammell	LF	Hagen Smith + bullpen	3.52	0.602 → 0.605	+0.003	1.456 → 1.427	-0.029	0.381 → 0.370	-0.010	0.111 → 0.106	-0.005

Cam Smith	RF	Hagen Smith + bullpen	3.71	0.632 → 0.635	+0.003	1.194 → 1.169	-0.026	0.381 → 0.370	-0.011	0.147 → 0.141	-0.006

Christian Walker	1B	Hagen Smith + bullpen	3.95	0.693 → 0.696	+0.003	1.127 → 1.102	-0.025	0.423 → 0.411	-0.012	0.184 → 0.176	-0.008

HOU starter against the CHW lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
AJ Blubaugh	Starter	CHW	17.48	2.213 → 2.186	-0.027	6.279 → 6.563	+0.284	1.405 → 1.600	+0.195	0.872 → 0.958	+0.087

HOU bullpen: the full relief corps (13 arms)

Exposure. Starter 17.5 batters faced, bullpen 19.6 (52.9% of the game), from the club's real 37.1 staff batters faced per game over 26 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 50.9% across 4 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Ethan Pecko	Reliever	recent relief	49	3	11.7%	2.30
Bennett Sousa	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	published staff, recent relief	48	12	11.5%	2.26
Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	published staff, recent relief	47	13	11.3%	2.21
Bryan King	Reliever	recent relief	40	9	9.7%	1.90
Enyel De Los Santos	Reliever	recent relief	38	7	9.2%	1.81
Tatsuya Imai	Reliever	recent relief	37	5	9.0%	1.77
Josh Hader	Closer	published staff, recent relief	37	9	9.0%	1.77
Miguel Ullola	Reliever	recent relief	32	5	7.9%	1.55
Ronel Blanco	Reliever	recent relief	25	2	6.3%	1.24
Logan VanWey	Setup Man	published staff, recent relief	24	5	6.1%	1.19
Kai-Wei Teng	Reliever	recent relief	14	2	3.8%	0.75
Josh Hendrickson	Reliever	recent relief	9	2	2.7%	0.53
Steven Okert	Reliever	recent relief	5	2	1.8%	0.35

HOU relievers against the CHW lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Ethan Pecko	Reliever	CHW (12% of relief)	2.30	0.470 → 0.465	-0.006	0.426 → 0.446	+0.021	0.216 → 0.247	+0.030	0.073 → 0.080	+0.007

Bennett Sousa	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	CHW (11% of relief)	2.26	1.118 → 1.105	-0.013	1.111 → 1.162	+0.051	0.489 → 0.556	+0.067	0.274 → 0.301	+0.027

Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	CHW (11% of relief)	2.21	0.758 → 0.748	-0.009	1.204 → 1.255	+0.051	0.574 → 0.651	+0.077	0.201 → 0.221	+0.020

Bryan King	Reliever	CHW (10% of relief)	1.90	0.441 → 0.436	-0.005	0.365 → 0.382	+0.017	0.162 → 0.184	+0.023	0.059 → 0.065	+0.006

Enyel De Los Santos	Reliever	CHW (9% of relief)	1.81	0.405 → 0.400	-0.005	0.399 → 0.417	+0.018	0.132 → 0.151	+0.019	0.060 → 0.066	+0.006

Tatsuya Imai	Reliever	CHW (9% of relief)	1.77	0.341 → 0.337	-0.004	0.486 → 0.506	+0.021	0.232 → 0.263	+0.031	0.051 → 0.056	+0.005

Josh Hader	Closer	CHW (9% of relief)	1.77	0.517 → 0.510	-0.007	1.033 → 1.076	+0.043	0.432 → 0.492	+0.061	0.021 → 0.023	+0.002

Miguel Ullola	Reliever	CHW (8% of relief)	1.55	0.336 → 0.332	-0.004	0.342 → 0.358	+0.016	0.138 → 0.157	+0.019	0.047 → 0.052	+0.005

Ronel Blanco	Reliever	CHW (6% of relief)	1.24	0.266 → 0.263	-0.003	0.260 → 0.272	+0.012	0.124 → 0.141	+0.017	0.047 → 0.052	+0.005

Logan VanWey	Setup Man	CHW (6% of relief)	1.19	1.232 → 1.217	-0.015	0.905 → 0.947	+0.042	0.132 → 0.150	+0.018	0.163 → 0.179	+0.016

Kai-Wei Teng	Reliever	CHW (4% of relief)	0.75	0.160 → 0.158	-0.002	0.167 → 0.174	+0.008	0.073 → 0.083	+0.010	0.023 → 0.025	+0.002

Josh Hendrickson	Reliever	CHW (3% of relief)	0.53	0.115 → 0.114	-0.001	0.117 → 0.123	+0.005	0.047 → 0.054	+0.007	0.016 → 0.018	+0.002

Steven Okert	Reliever	CHW (2% of relief)	0.35	0.069 → 0.068	-0.001	0.089 → 0.093	+0.004	0.024 → 0.027	+0.003	0.010 → 0.011	+0.001

20260929_PHI@ATL — team layer withheld (no gate recorded); runs moved away 0 / home 0

Jesús Luzardo (LHP, 26.2 BF)
H 0.2000 Good · SO 0.2947 Very good · BB 0.0744 Good · HR 0.0243 Very good

Chris Sale (LHP, 24.9 BF)
H 0.2069 Good · SO 0.2947 Very good · BB 0.0573 Very good · HR 0.0219 Very good

PHI hitters vs Chris Sale and the bullpen

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to PHI hitter lines. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Bryce Harper	RF	Chris Sale + bullpen	4.27	0.900 → 0.865	-0.035	1.273 → 1.591	+0.317	0.428 → 0.321	-0.107	0.156 → 0.123	-0.032

Alec Bohm	1B	Chris Sale + bullpen	3.89	0.909 → 0.873	-0.035	0.713 → 0.912	+0.199	0.250 → 0.184	-0.065	0.117 → 0.093	-0.025

Bryan De La Cruz	LF	Chris Sale + bullpen	3.46	0.765 → 0.735	-0.030	0.919 → 1.145	+0.226	0.240 → 0.178	-0.062	0.104 → 0.082	-0.022

Derek Hill	CF	Chris Sale + bullpen	3.54	0.831 → 0.798	-0.033	1.281 → 1.555	+0.274	0.176 → 0.130	-0.046	0.155 → 0.123	-0.032

Edmundo Sosa	3B	Chris Sale + bullpen	3.51	0.815 → 0.783	-0.032	0.999 → 1.246	+0.247	0.135 → 0.099	-0.036	0.122 → 0.097	-0.025

Kyle Schwarber	DH	Chris Sale + bullpen	4.16	0.849 → 0.815	-0.034	1.617 → 1.958	+0.341	0.398 → 0.299	-0.099	0.243 → 0.193	-0.050

Bryson Stott	2B	Chris Sale + bullpen	3.67	0.846 → 0.813	-0.033	0.779 → 0.987	+0.208	0.263 → 0.195	-0.068	0.081 → 0.064	-0.017

Trea Turner	SS	Chris Sale + bullpen	4.26	0.998 → 0.959	-0.039	1.083 → 1.354	+0.271	0.249 → 0.183	-0.065	0.122 → 0.097	-0.025

J.T. Realmuto	C	Chris Sale + bullpen	3.42	0.679 → 0.652	-0.027	0.918 → 1.147	+0.228	0.227 → 0.168	-0.059	0.090 → 0.071	-0.019

PHI starter against the ATL lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Jesús Luzardo	Starter	ATL	26.16	4.546 → 4.719	+0.173	8.543 → 8.175	-0.367	1.720 → 1.597	-0.123	0.619 → 0.714	+0.095

PHI bullpen: the full relief corps (11 arms)

Exposure. Starter 26.2 batters faced, bullpen 11.3 (30.1% of the game), from the club's real 37.4 staff batters faced per game over 26 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 12.9% across 1 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
José Alvarado	Reliever	recent relief	51	13	14.9%	1.68
Alex McFarlane	Reliever	recent relief	46	11	13.5%	1.52
Orion Kerkering	Reliever	recent relief	39	6	11.6%	1.31
Jhoan Duran	Closer	published staff, recent relief	38	10	11.3%	1.27
Chase Shugart	Reliever	recent relief	35	9	10.5%	1.18
Tanner Banks	Reliever	recent relief	30	4	9.1%	1.03
Jonathan Bowlan	Reliever	recent relief	29	7	8.8%	0.99
Brooks Raley	Reliever	recent relief	25	7	7.7%	0.87
Tim Mayza	Reliever	recent relief	20	6	6.3%	0.72
Max Lazar	Reliever	recent relief	10	2	3.6%	0.40
Grant Holman	Reliever	recent relief	7	1	2.8%	0.31

PHI relievers against the ATL lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
José Alvarado	Reliever	ATL (15% of relief)	1.68	0.379 → 0.393	+0.014	0.418 → 0.399	-0.019	0.174 → 0.162	-0.012	0.044 → 0.050	+0.007

Alex McFarlane	Reliever	ATL (14% of relief)	1.52	0.330 → 0.343	+0.012	0.337 → 0.321	-0.016	0.135 → 0.126	-0.010	0.046 → 0.053	+0.007

Orion Kerkering	Reliever	ATL (12% of relief)	1.31	0.264 → 0.274	+0.010	0.303 → 0.288	-0.014	0.147 → 0.137	-0.010	0.034 → 0.039	+0.005

Jhoan Duran	Closer	ATL (11% of relief)	1.27	0.704 → 0.731	+0.026	1.516 → 1.453	-0.063	0.179 → 0.166	-0.013	0.028 → 0.032	+0.004

Chase Shugart	Reliever	ATL (10% of relief)	1.18	0.243 → 0.253	+0.009	0.299 → 0.285	-0.014	0.107 → 0.099	-0.007	0.042 → 0.048	+0.006

Tanner Banks	Reliever	ATL (9% of relief)	1.03	0.253 → 0.262	+0.009	0.223 → 0.212	-0.011	0.089 → 0.083	-0.006	0.035 → 0.041	+0.005

Jonathan Bowlan	Reliever	ATL (9% of relief)	0.99	0.203 → 0.211	+0.008	0.293 → 0.281	-0.013	0.073 → 0.068	-0.005	0.032 → 0.037	+0.005

Brooks Raley	Reliever	ATL (8% of relief)	0.87	0.187 → 0.194	+0.007	0.196 → 0.186	-0.009	0.078 → 0.073	-0.005	0.025 → 0.029	+0.004

Tim Mayza	Reliever	ATL (6% of relief)	0.72	0.154 → 0.160	+0.006	0.167 → 0.159	-0.008	0.053 → 0.049	-0.004	0.021 → 0.024	+0.003

Max Lazar	Reliever	ATL (4% of relief)	0.40	0.088 → 0.091	+0.003	0.089 → 0.085	-0.004	0.036 → 0.033	-0.003	0.012 → 0.014	+0.002

Grant Holman	Reliever	ATL (3% of relief)	0.31	0.067 → 0.070	+0.003	0.069 → 0.065	-0.003	0.028 → 0.026	-0.002	0.009 → 0.011	+0.001

ATL hitters vs Jesús Luzardo and the bullpen

The pipeline applied no club-wide rescale to ATL hitter lines. The columns below are the measured alternative: each hitter moved by his own KPI pairing with the whole opposing staff, the starter and the full relief corps combined at the share of his plate appearances each takes. Click a name for the starter-only and bullpen decomposition and the contextual readings.

Player	Pos	Faces	PA	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	PA	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Drake Baldwin	C	Jesús Luzardo + bullpen	4.40	1.063 → 1.005	-0.057	1.176 → 1.498	+0.323	0.319 → 0.282	-0.037	0.177 → 0.150	-0.027

Ronald Acuña Jr.	RF	Jesús Luzardo + bullpen	4.32	0.919 → 0.869	-0.051	1.077 → 1.368	+0.291	0.414 → 0.367	-0.047	0.163 → 0.138	-0.025

Mauricio Dubón	LF	Jesús Luzardo + bullpen	3.97	1.012 → 0.957	-0.055	0.568 → 0.746	+0.178	0.232 → 0.205	-0.028	0.096 → 0.082	-0.015

Matt Olson	1B	Jesús Luzardo + bullpen	4.04	0.903 → 0.853	-0.050	1.260 → 1.589	+0.328	0.294 → 0.260	-0.034	0.208 → 0.177	-0.031

Mike Yastrzemski	DH	Jesús Luzardo + bullpen	3.57	0.733 → 0.692	-0.041	1.064 → 1.346	+0.282	0.268 → 0.237	-0.031	0.109 → 0.093	-0.017

Michael Harris II	CF	Jesús Luzardo + bullpen	3.96	1.051 → 0.995	-0.056	1.116 → 1.432	+0.316	0.142 → 0.125	-0.017	0.155 → 0.132	-0.023

Ozzie Albies	2B	Jesús Luzardo + bullpen	3.85	0.833 → 0.786	-0.046	0.732 → 0.950	+0.218	0.254 → 0.224	-0.030	0.124 → 0.105	-0.019

Ha-Seong Kim	SS	Jesús Luzardo + bullpen	3.20	0.603 → 0.570	-0.033	0.921 → 1.169	+0.248	0.287 → 0.254	-0.033	0.062 → 0.053	-0.009

Austin Riley	3B	Jesús Luzardo + bullpen	3.64	0.762 → 0.719	-0.043	1.326 → 1.632	+0.306	0.264 → 0.233	-0.031	0.111 → 0.094	-0.017

ATL starter against the PHI lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Chris Sale	Starter	PHI	24.93	4.993 → 4.965	-0.028	7.596 → 7.653	+0.057	0.725 → 0.759	+0.034	0.410 → 0.449	+0.038

ATL bullpen: the full relief corps (10 arms)

Exposure. Starter 24.9 batters faced, bullpen 12.2 (32.8% of the game), from the club's real 37.1 staff batters faced per game over 26 complete games in the last 30 days. The published staff alone would have given the bullpen 35.4% across 3 arms, because it holds only the relievers the selected simulation draw used.

Reliever	Role	In the corps because	Relief BF, 30d	Apps	Share	BF tonight
Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	published staff, recent relief	50	9	14.5%	1.77
Brent Suter	Reliever	recent relief	44	6	12.9%	1.57
AJ Smith-Shawver	Reliever	recent relief	41	4	12.0%	1.47
Ray Kerr	Reliever	recent relief	39	5	11.5%	1.40
Victor Mederos	Reliever	recent relief	39	10	11.5%	1.40
Raisel Iglesias	Closer	published staff, recent relief	35	10	10.4%	1.27
Dylan Lee	Setup Man	published staff, recent relief	34	8	10.1%	1.24
Dylan Dodd	Reliever	recent relief	27	7	8.2%	1.00
Grant Holmes	Reliever	recent relief	17	1	5.5%	0.67
Robert Suarez	Reliever	recent relief	9	2	3.3%	0.40

ATL relievers against the PHI lineup

Player	Pos	Faces	BF	Hits		Strikeouts		Walks		Home runs
Player	Pos	Faces	BF	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ	published → KPI	Δ
Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	PHI (15% of relief)	1.77	1.223 → 1.216	-0.007	1.525 → 1.537	+0.012	0.330 → 0.345	+0.015	0.131 → 0.143	+0.012

Brent Suter	Reliever	PHI (13% of relief)	1.57	0.350 → 0.348	-0.002	0.329 → 0.331	+0.003	0.117 → 0.123	+0.005	0.043 → 0.047	+0.004

AJ Smith-Shawver	Reliever	PHI (12% of relief)	1.47	0.321 → 0.319	-0.002	0.293 → 0.295	+0.003	0.146 → 0.153	+0.006	0.051 → 0.056	+0.005

Ray Kerr	Reliever	PHI (12% of relief)	1.40	0.304 → 0.302	-0.002	0.310 → 0.313	+0.003	0.125 → 0.130	+0.006	0.043 → 0.047	+0.004

Victor Mederos	Reliever	PHI (12% of relief)	1.40	0.288 → 0.286	-0.002	0.318 → 0.321	+0.003	0.129 → 0.134	+0.006	0.034 → 0.038	+0.003

Raisel Iglesias	Closer	PHI (10% of relief)	1.27	0.677 → 0.673	-0.004	1.135 → 1.144	+0.009	0.199 → 0.208	+0.009	0.083 → 0.091	+0.008

Dylan Lee	Setup Man	PHI (10% of relief)	1.24	0.882 → 0.877	-0.005	0.983 → 0.990	+0.007	0.246 → 0.257	+0.011	0.037 → 0.041	+0.004

Dylan Dodd	Reliever	PHI (8% of relief)	1.00	0.194 → 0.193	-0.001	0.262 → 0.265	+0.002	0.082 → 0.085	+0.004	0.029 → 0.032	+0.003

Grant Holmes	Reliever	PHI (5% of relief)	0.67	0.144 → 0.143	-0.001	0.124 → 0.125	+0.001	0.061 → 0.064	+0.003	0.022 → 0.025	+0.002

Robert Suarez	Reliever	PHI (3% of relief)	0.40	0.083 → 0.083	-0.001	0.083 → 0.084	+0.001	0.028 → 0.029	+0.001	0.010 → 0.011	+0.001

Measured from published artifacts and stored KPI values. Nothing recomputed. Per-player adjustments are a measurement of the catalog, not the published line.