MLB Predictions — October 10, 2026

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
CHW @ CLE	5 - 6	5 - 6	CLE	CLE	CLE wins 6-5	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians

CHW 84-78 (4.79 RPG / 4.44 RA)

5 - 6

CLE 85-77 (4.19 RPG / 4.12 RA)

WINNER: CLE wins 6-5 TARGET: CHW 5 - 6 CLE (CLE) Confidence: 52.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHW	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	5	8
CLE	0	0	0	0	3	1	1	0	1	6	8

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs6.5

Avg Allowed4.3

Run Diff22

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs5.3

Avg Allowed3.2

Run Diff21

Off Trendhot

Def Trendstrong

Streak1L

CHW Season Quality

Record84-78

Win%0.519

Run Diff56

RD/Game0.346

CLE Season Quality

Record85-77

Win%0.525

Run Diff11

RD/Game0.068

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.1605; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

Score Evolution — how the published score was reached

Base historical_ml 4.08233 - 4.85991 → published capped_target 5 - 6. Net change: CHW +0.92 runs, CLE +1.14 runs across 7 stages, 2 of which moved the target.

KPI layer: computed and withheld (values_fresh). Blend weights in force: away_runs 0.34, home_runs 0.38. Continuous expectation behind the integers: CHW —, CLE —. Candidate 20261010T091315Z_e1040db9.

#	Stage	CHW - CLE	Δ CHW	Δ CLE	Justification recorded by the stage
1	`historical_ml`	4.08233 - 4.85991	0	0	Base ML historical model prediction
2	`variance_applied`	4 - 5	-0.08	+0.14	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
3	`enhanced_prediction`	5 - 6	+1	+1	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
4	`kpi_layer`	5 - 6	0	0	withheld by gate: values_fresh
5	`embedded_savant_run_environment`	5 - 6	0	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
6	`fundamental_edge_target_review`	5 - 6	0	0	target direction already matched refreshed fundamentals or margin was not fragile
7	`capped_target`	5 - 6	0	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
8	`simulation_result`	5 - 6	0	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Sam Antonacci	LF	145	496	137	0.276	8	53	0.373	5	5	1	1	0	0	1	0.200	0.279	0.338	0.389	OK
Kyle Teel	C	44	144	30	0.208	5	28	0.315	5	4	1	1	3	0	2	0.250	0.220	0.300	0.344	OK
Miguel Vargas	3B	164	607	151	0.249	34	94	0.366	5	5	2	1	1	0	1	0.400	0.238	0.378	0.467	OK
Munetaka Murakami	1B	133	477	99	0.208	36	82	0.345	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.211	0.331	0.461	OK
Andrew Benintendi	DH	145	427	102	0.239	15	79	0.303	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.140	0.238	0.292	OK
Tristan Peters	RF	153	455	121	0.266	12	58	0.333	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.262	0.315	0.410	OK
Chase Meidroth	2B	159	589	164	0.278	17	68	0.351	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.288	0.353	0.455	OK
Colson Montgomery	SS	159	587	117	0.199	32	89	0.286	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.202	0.271	0.355	OK
Brenton Doyle	CF	36	99	25	0.253	5	11	0.253	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.159	0.197	0.317	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	37	8	5	5	1	13	0.216

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Steven Kwan	LF	149	542	152	0.280	3	33	0.379	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.280	0.370	0.341	OK
José Ramírez	3B	125	476	112	0.235	13	58	0.323	4	4	1	0	2	0	2	0.250	0.241	0.317	0.409	OK
Chase DeLauter	RF	132	498	142	0.285	16	68	0.361	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.250	0.323	0.397	OK
Jo Adell	DH	51	192	47	0.245	7	37	0.330	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.248	0.308	0.434	OK
Nathaniel Lowe	1B	43	141	32	0.227	5	27	0.293	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.252	0.335	0.394	OK
Travis Bazzana	2B	125	453	108	0.238	15	56	0.330	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.212	0.300	0.348	OK
Patrick Bailey	C	76	230	57	0.248	10	34	0.307	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.220	0.277	0.400	OK
Petey Halpin	CF	65	175	38	0.217	4	13	0.254	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.159	0.190	0.244	OK
Brayan Rocchio	SS	153	533	134	0.251	13	68	0.313	4	3	2	1	2	1	1	0.667	0.256	0.316	0.437	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	33	8	6	6	3	9	0.242

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Sean Burke	Starter	34	177.0	3.46	1.198	10.1	199	4.2	3	3	3	2	7	81	4.2	7	3
Sean Newcomb	Long Reliever	60	81.2	3.44	1.293	9.6	87	1.1	3	1	1	0	1	28	1.1	1	1
Noah Schultz	Long Reliever	14	62.9	6.01	1.431	8.3	58	2.0	1	1	1	0	1	29	2.0	1	1
Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever	42	33.7	4.54	1.780	13.1	49	0.1	1	1	1	1	0	9	0.1	0	1

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Gavin Williams	Starter	34	186.6	3.81	1.141	12.5	260	5.0	5	5	4	1	7	98	5.0	7	4
Tim Herrin	Middle Reliever	70	45.7	3.74	1.663	11.4	58	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	5	0.2	1	0
Shawn Armstrong	Middle Reliever	42	31.3	3.45	1.406	10.9	38	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	15	1.0	1	0
Daniel Espino	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	16	14.8	4.86	1.622	16.4	27	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	21	1.0	2	0
Hunter Gaddis	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	71	53.3	3.21	1.426	10.0	59	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	14	1.0	2	0
Tanner Bibee	Setup Man	34	183.9	4.55	1.262	7.3	149	0.1	1	0	0	0	0	13	0.1	0	0

Game Summary

CLE wins 6-5

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

All Games Overview