MLB Predictions — October 6, 2026

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
LAD @ ATL	4 - 3	4 - 3	LAD	LAD	LAD wins 4-3	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIL @ SD	4 - 5	4 - 5	SD	SD	SD wins 5-4	57%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves

LAD 100-62 (4.94 RPG / 3.7 RA)

4 - 3

ATL 94-69 (4.56 RPG / 3.88 RA)

WINNER: LAD wins 4-3 TARGET: LAD 4 - 3 ATL (LAD) Confidence: 50.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H
LAD	0	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	4	9
ATL	0	0	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	7

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs5.0

Avg Allowed2.2

Run Diff28

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak3W

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.0

Avg Allowed3.9

Run Diff1

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

LAD Season Quality

Record100-62

Win%0.617

Run Diff201

RD/Game1.241

ATL Season Quality

Record94-68

Win%0.580

Run Diff116

RD/Game0.716

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.6096; margin adjustment: -0.256; applied: True

Score Evolution — how the published score was reached

Base historical_ml 3.80743 - 4.63436 → published capped_target 4 - 3. Net change: LAD +0.19 runs, ATL -1.63 runs across 7 stages, 2 of which moved the target.

KPI layer: applied. Blend weights in force: away_runs 0.78, home_runs 0.44. Continuous expectation behind the integers: LAD 3.464, ATL 3.222. Candidate 20261005T125039Z_f5114dc0.

#	Stage	LAD - ATL	Δ LAD	Δ ATL	Justification recorded by the stage
1	`historical_ml`	3.80743 - 4.63436	0	0	Base ML historical model prediction
2	`variance_applied`	4 - 5	+0.19	+0.37	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
3	`enhanced_prediction`	4 - 3	0	-2	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run, matchup_recency_guardrail)
4	`kpi_layer`	4 - 3	0	0	all gates passed; blend published
5	`embedded_savant_run_environment`	4 - 3	0	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
6	`fundamental_edge_target_review`	4 - 3	0	0	target direction already matched refreshed fundamentals or margin was not fragile
7	`capped_target`	4 - 3	0	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
8	`simulation_result`	4 - 3	0	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Mookie Betts	SS	123	480	124	0.258	23	69	0.326	5	5	1	1	1	0	1	0.200	0.212	0.298	0.394	OK
Freddie Freeman	1B	154	582	169	0.290	17	69	0.365	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	0.250	0.270	0.334	0.432	OK
Teoscar Hernández	LF	125	446	119	0.267	17	65	0.332	5	5	1	0	1	0	2	0.200	0.243	0.292	0.437	OK
Will Smith	C	72	243	61	0.251	10	33	0.342	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0.200	0.267	0.348	0.423	OK
Shohei Ohtani	DH	136	526	144	0.274	30	79	0.375	5	5	1	1	0	0	2	0.200	0.266	0.354	0.462	OK
Miguel Rojas	2B	98	226	61	0.270	4	23	0.304	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.244	0.300	0.393	OK
Andy Pages	CF	134	514	139	0.270	23	84	0.340	4	3	1	0	1	1	1	0.333	0.221	0.292	0.422	OK
Kyle Tucker	RF	152	543	128	0.236	18	72	0.326	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.244	0.325	0.398	OK
Enrique Hernández	3B	36	90	20	0.222	4	12	0.271	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.145	0.194	0.303	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	39	9	4	4	2	8	0.231

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Drake Baldwin	C	142	560	157	0.280	25	80	0.356	5	5	2	1	0	0	0	0.400	0.231	0.300	0.359	OK
Ronald Acuña Jr.	DH	111	423	107	0.253	20	55	0.345	5	5	1	0	2	0	1	0.200	0.231	0.319	0.386	OK
Matt Olson	1B	166	638	158	0.248	41	94	0.317	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.211	0.279	0.422	OK
Ozzie Albies	2B	166	624	150	0.240	24	78	0.301	5	5	1	1	0	0	0	0.200	0.206	0.280	0.427	OK
Michael Harris II	CF	159	609	183	0.300	27	91	0.325	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.309	0.325	0.485	OK
Mauricio Dubón	LF	157	584	161	0.276	12	74	0.322	4	4	1	0	1	0	1	0.250	0.241	0.286	0.347	OK
Lane Thomas	RF	20	44	7	0.159	1	3	0.229	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.193	0.278	0.328	OK
Austin Riley	3B	163	575	125	0.217	20	75	0.293	4	2	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.182	0.257	0.360	OK
Ha-Seong Kim	SS	48	133	15	0.113	0	9	0.224	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.081	0.210	0.136	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	37	7	3	3	3	8	0.189

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Starter	28	182.9	2.56	0.880	9.0	182	6.0	6	3	3	1	5	101	6.0	5	3
Brock Stewart	Middle Reliever	29	25.2	2.50	1.032	9.3	26	1.0	1	0	0	1	0	15	1.0	0	0
Evan Phillips	Middle Reliever	33	22.7	3.96	1.278	13.1	33	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	8	0.2	1	0
Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	73	48.5	3.15	1.278	13.9	75	2.1	0	0	0	1	2	42	2.1	2	0

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Chris Sale	Starter	29	168.0	2.25	0.988	11.4	212	5.2	5	2	2	1	4	93	5.2	4	2
Dylan Dodd	Middle Reliever	50	47.5	2.84	1.011	10.8	57	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	15	1.0	1	1
Robert Suarez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	35	33.8	1.07	0.917	7.2	27	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	25	1.0	1	0
Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	73	60.0	3.45	1.083	12.0	80	2.1	1	1	0	1	2	45	2.1	2	0

Game Summary

LAD wins 4-3

Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres

MIL 103-59 (5.14 RPG / 3.81 RA)

4 - 5

SD 91-71 (4.46 RPG / 4.2 RA)

WINNER: SD wins 5-4 TARGET: MIL 4 - 5 SD (SD) Confidence: 56.6% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIL	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	8
SD	0	0	0	5	0	0	0	0	x	5	10

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs4.4

Avg Allowed3.0

Run Diff14

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak5W

SD Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs6.3

Avg Allowed4.5

Run Diff18

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak2W

MIL Season Quality

Record103-59

Win%0.636

Run Diff214

RD/Game1.321

SD Season Quality

Record91-71

Win%0.562

Run Diff41

RD/Game0.253

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.723; margin adjustment: -0.3037; applied: True

Score Evolution — how the published score was reached

Base historical_ml 3.53132 - 4.70019 → published capped_target 4 - 5. Net change: MIL +0.47 runs, SD +0.3 runs across 7 stages, 1 of which moved the target.

KPI layer: applied. Blend weights in force: away_runs 0.78, home_runs 0.44. Continuous expectation behind the integers: MIL 3.661, SD 4.656. Candidate 20261005T125039Z_f5114dc0.

#	Stage	MIL - SD	Δ MIL	Δ SD	Justification recorded by the stage
1	`historical_ml`	3.53132 - 4.70019	0	0	Base ML historical model prediction
2	`variance_applied`	4 - 5	+0.47	+0.3	Deterministic baseline target (variance factor 1.0)
3	`enhanced_prediction`	4 - 5	0	0	Enhanced ML with recent form, H2H, low-score analysis (confidence shrunk by projected_margin_is_one_run)
4	`kpi_layer`	4 - 5	0	0	all gates passed; blend published
5	`embedded_savant_run_environment`	4 - 5	0	0	Target score adjusted by temporal Savant lineup quality versus opposing starter quality
6	`fundamental_edge_target_review`	4 - 5	0	0	target direction already matched refreshed fundamentals or margin was not fragile
7	`capped_target`	4 - 5	0	0	Capped at max 12 realistic runs
8	`simulation_result`	4 - 5	0	0	Final inning-by-inning simulation result

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jackson Chourio	LF	127	524	154	0.294	26	79	0.354	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.310	0.361	0.492	OK
Jake Bauers	1B	140	475	126	0.265	25	84	0.385	5	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.252	0.360	0.416	OK
William Contreras	C	147	568	152	0.268	19	94	0.338	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.233	0.304	0.396	OK
Brice Turang	2B	149	578	157	0.272	21	101	0.367	5	4	1	1	0	1	0	0.250	0.246	0.332	0.436	OK
Christian Yelich	DH	116	433	100	0.231	12	57	0.314	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.236	0.318	0.368	OK
Garrett Mitchell	CF	139	457	118	0.258	10	58	0.346	4	3	1	1	2	1	0	0.333	0.248	0.326	0.360	OK
Cooper Pratt	SS	72	229	63	0.275	3	33	0.340	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.258	0.327	0.333	OK
Sal Frelick	RF	107	334	78	0.234	4	39	0.299	4	4	1	0	1	0	0	0.250	0.202	0.287	0.280	OK
Joey Ortiz	3B	117	367	97	0.264	9	46	0.323	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.266	0.325	0.383	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	36	8	4	4	3	5	0.222

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Fernando Tatis Jr.	RF	161	643	184	0.286	26	83	0.354	5	5	1	1	1	0	1	0.200	0.248	0.304	0.424	OK
Jackson Merrill	CF	161	629	161	0.256	26	89	0.304	4	4	1	0	1	0	2	0.250	0.260	0.299	0.372	OK
Manny Machado	3B	162	602	133	0.221	31	93	0.309	4	2	0	0	1	1	0	0.000	0.240	0.334	0.457	OK
Ty France	1B	131	455	137	0.301	21	74	0.367	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.317	0.365	0.464	OK
Ethan Salas	C	18	43	11	0.256	2	6	0.267	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.300	0.320	0.446	OK
Xander Bogaerts	SS	157	534	125	0.234	14	59	0.334	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.242	0.347	0.418	OK
Dustin Harris	LF	29	105	32	0.305	0	15	0.342	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.246	0.292	0.334	OK
Samad Taylor	DH	50	156	49	0.314	2	18	0.386	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.290	0.356	0.382	OK
Jake Cronenworth	2B	112	390	86	0.221	7	42	0.303	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.173	0.243	0.259	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	34	10	5	5	2	7	0.294

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Dustin May	Starter	10	35.5	5.83	1.465	9.6	38	4.0	8	5	5	2	4	89	4.0	4	5
JoJo Romero	Long Reliever	12	10.5	4.29	1.333	11.1	13	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	14	1.0	1	0
Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	24	17.0	6.35	2.000	7.4	14	3.0	1	0	0	0	2	37	3.0	2	0

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Nick Pivetta	Starter	9	37.3	2.90	1.072	11.1	46	4.0	4	3	3	1	2	69	4.0	2	3
Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	69	67.4	1.87	1.098	11.4	85	1.1	2	0	0	1	1	29	1.1	1	0
Adrian Morejon	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	78	80.2	3.14	1.209	12.2	109	1.1	1	1	1	0	1	19	1.1	1	1
Jason Adam	Setup Man	40	34.0	2.65	1.206	5.8	22	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	18	1.0	1	0
Mason Miller	Closer	68	68.7	1.97	0.990	17.4	133	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	28	1.1	0	0

Game Summary

SD wins 5-4

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

All Games Overview

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Atlanta Braves

LAD Recent Form

ATL Recent Form

LAD Season Quality

ATL Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

Score Evolution — how the published score was reached

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Milwaukee Brewers @ San Diego Padres

MIL Recent Form

SD Recent Form

MIL Season Quality

SD Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

Score Evolution — how the published score was reached

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary