MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

October 4, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (2 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreTarget WinnerSim WinnerWinnerConfidenceMethod
ATL @ LAD3 - 43 - 4LADLADLAD wins 4-351%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SD @ MIL4 - 54 - 5MILMILMIL wins 5-455%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers

ATL 94-69 (4.56 RPG / 3.88 RA)
3 - 4
LAD 100-62 (4.94 RPG / 3.7 RA)
WINNER: LAD wins 4-3 TARGET: ATL 3 - 4 LAD (LAD) Confidence: 51.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
ATL10000001136
LAD00010000345

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff1
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs5.0
Avg Allowed2.2
Run Diff28
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak3W

ATL Season Quality

Record94-68
Win%0.580
Run Diff116
RD/Game0.716

LAD Season Quality

Record100-62
Win%0.617
Run Diff201
RD/Game1.241

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.6096; margin adjustment: 0.256; applied: True

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Drake BaldwinC 141558157 0.281 25800.354 44100 02 0.250 0.240 0.288 0.379 OK
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF 110418106 0.254 20550.346 43100 11 0.333 0.214 0.296 0.362 OK
Matt Olson1B 165634157 0.248 41940.316 43111 12 0.333 0.208 0.273 0.443 OK
Ozzie Albies2B 165620150 0.242 24780.302 44100 02 0.250 0.222 0.292 0.470 OK
Michael Harris IICF 158604180 0.298 27900.323 43011 02 0.000 0.276 0.296 0.449 OK
Mauricio DubónSS 156581160 0.275 12730.321 44100 02 0.250 0.265 0.306 0.392 OK
Sean MurphyDH 3511622 0.190 4110.266 43100 10 0.333 0.195 0.275 0.346 OK
Austin Riley3B 162572125 0.219 20750.294 43011 01 0.000 0.191 0.267 0.370 OK
Lane ThomasLF 19427 0.167 130.239 44000 01 0.000 0.113 0.207 0.209 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36316 33 313 0.194

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Mookie BettsSS 122478124 0.259 23690.325 43111 10 0.333 0.271 0.341 0.480 OK
Shohei OhtaniDH 135522143 0.274 30790.376 44000 00 0.000 0.266 0.355 0.468 OK
Will SmithC 7123961 0.255 10330.347 43000 11 0.000 0.281 0.360 0.466 OK
Freddie Freeman1B 153578167 0.289 16680.364 44110 02 0.250 0.246 0.315 0.367 OK
Teoscar HernándezLF 124442119 0.269 17650.335 44113 00 0.250 0.275 0.325 0.492 OK
Kyle TuckerRF 151539127 0.236 18720.327 33110 02 0.333 0.241 0.322 0.421 OK
Andy PagesCF 133511139 0.272 23840.340 33000 00 0.000 0.236 0.302 0.439 OK
Miguel Rojas3B 9722560 0.267 4230.301 33100 01 0.333 0.261 0.313 0.389 OK
Tommy Edman2B 8128970 0.242 8400.323 33000 00 0.000 0.222 0.281 0.367 OK
TEAM TOTALS 32305 44 26 0.167

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Ray KerrStarter 1020.51.32 0.6345.713 5.02110477 5.0 4 1
Raisel IglesiasCloser 6159.92.55 1.1199.664 1.10000117 1.1 1 0
Didier FuentesSetup Man 6069.62.72 1.20712.093 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Dylan LeeMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 7259.83.46 1.05411.979 1.02332022 0.2 0 3

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Blake SnellStarter 942.21.92 1.11411.755 5.12113997 5.1 9 1
Tanner ScottCloser 7058.53.23 1.11112.682 1.10000217 1.1 2 0
Evan PhillipsSetup Man 3222.63.98 1.28313.133 1.12110126 1.1 1 1
Edwin DíazMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 2017.57.71 1.88614.428 1.02110119 1.0 1 1

Game Summary

LAD wins 4-3

San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers

SD 91-71 (4.46 RPG / 4.2 RA)
4 - 5
MIL 103-59 (5.14 RPG / 3.81 RA)
WINNER: MIL wins 5-4 TARGET: SD 4 - 5 MIL (MIL) Confidence: 55.4% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
SD10020010045
MIL02000003x510

SD Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs6.3
Avg Allowed4.5
Run Diff18
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs4.4
Avg Allowed3.0
Run Diff14
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak5W

SD Season Quality

Record91-71
Win%0.562
Run Diff41
RD/Game0.253

MIL Season Quality

Record103-59
Win%0.636
Run Diff214
RD/Game1.321

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.723; margin adjustment: 0.3037; applied: True

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF 160638184 0.288 26830.356 44000 01 0.000 0.266 0.322 0.455 OK
Dustin HarrisLF 2810032 0.320 0140.358 44211 01 0.500 0.282 0.324 0.382 OK
Manny Machado3B 161600133 0.222 31930.308 44000 02 0.000 0.259 0.332 0.473 OK
Ty France1B 130452135 0.299 21720.364 43110 12 0.333 0.283 0.330 0.419 OK
Jackson MerrillCF 160625160 0.256 26890.305 44112 02 0.250 0.243 0.286 0.369 OK
Ethan SalasDH 184311 0.256 260.267 44111 00 0.250 0.264 0.285 0.435 OK
Xander BogaertsSS 156531125 0.235 14590.335 33000 02 0.000 0.284 0.379 0.460 OK
Luis CampusanoC 7222259 0.266 8310.361 33000 00 0.000 0.243 0.323 0.368 OK
Jake Cronenworth2B 11138686 0.223 7420.306 33000 01 0.000 0.209 0.279 0.321 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33325 44 111 0.156

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jackson ChourioLF 126520153 0.294 26770.354 44210 00 0.500 0.318 0.373 0.562 OK
Brice Turang2B 148574157 0.274 211010.369 44000 00 0.000 0.269 0.354 0.455 OK
Jake Bauers1B 139471126 0.268 25840.387 44310 00 0.750 0.269 0.379 0.442 OK
William ContrerasC 146564152 0.270 19940.340 44112 03 0.250 0.250 0.321 0.429 OK
Garrett MitchellCF 138453117 0.258 10580.347 44110 01 0.250 0.245 0.327 0.364 OK
Christian YelichDH 11543099 0.230 12570.312 44213 00 0.500 0.233 0.312 0.389 OK
Sal FrelickRF 10633277 0.232 4380.294 44100 01 0.250 0.193 0.261 0.271 OK
Cooper PrattSS 7122662 0.274 3330.340 33000 00 0.000 0.271 0.343 0.342 OK
David Hamilton3B 11233782 0.243 4260.307 33000 02 0.000 0.232 0.289 0.326 OK
TEAM TOTALS 343410 55 07 0.294

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael KingStarter 33189.23.14 1.1737.9167 6.06220595 6.0 5 2
Mason MillerCloser 6767.51.73 0.94817.5131 1.20000121 1.2 1 0
Adrian MorejonSetup Man 7880.23.14 1.20912.2109 0.14330116 0.1 1 3

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Logan HendersonStarter 1897.42.49 0.85210.2110 6.02331886 6.0 8 3
Trevor MegillCloser 6361.62.05 0.87710.471 1.01110216 1.0 2 1
Abner UribeSetup Man 6255.02.13 1.14510.162 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Aaron AshbyMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 7683.33.35 1.40512.6117 1.02000116 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

MIL wins 5-4