MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

October 3, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (4 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreTarget WinnerSim WinnerWinnerConfidenceMethod
ATL @ LAD4 - 54 - 5LADLADLAD wins 5-455%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CHW @ CLE4 - 24 - 2CHWCHWCHW wins 4-252%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
NYY @ TB3 - 43 - 4TBTBTB wins 4-352%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SD @ MIL4 - 64 - 6MILMILMIL wins 6-453%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Atlanta Braves @ Los Angeles Dodgers

ATL 94-69 (4.56 RPG / 3.88 RA)
4 - 5
LAD 100-62 (4.94 RPG / 3.7 RA)
WINNER: LAD wins 5-4 TARGET: ATL 4 - 5 LAD (LAD) Confidence: 54.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
ATL00100020149
LAD10210001x56

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff1
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs5.0
Avg Allowed2.2
Run Diff28
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak3W

ATL Season Quality

Record94-68
Win%0.580
Run Diff116
RD/Game0.716

LAD Season Quality

Record100-62
Win%0.617
Run Diff201
RD/Game1.241

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.6096; margin adjustment: 0.256; applied: True

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Drake BaldwinDH 140554156 0.282 25800.355 53000 01 0.000 0.269 0.327 0.436 OK
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF 109414105 0.254 20550.347 55112 02 0.200 0.212 0.302 0.380 OK
Ozzie Albies2B 164617149 0.241 23760.300 54100 10 0.250 0.210 0.272 0.386 OK
Matt Olson1B 164630157 0.249 41940.318 54112 11 0.250 0.224 0.290 0.495 OK
Michael Harris IICF 157600180 0.300 27900.325 55100 01 0.200 0.326 0.346 0.520 OK
Mauricio DubónLF 155578160 0.277 12730.321 44210 01 0.500 0.253 0.288 0.380 OK
Austin Riley3B 161568125 0.220 20750.296 44000 01 0.000 0.200 0.277 0.387 OK
Sean MurphyC 3411321 0.186 3100.264 44000 02 0.000 0.185 0.267 0.290 OK
Ha-Seong KimSS 4713215 0.114 090.220 43310 10 1.000 0.096 0.212 0.154 OK
TEAM TOTALS 41369 44 39 0.250

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Mookie BettsSS 121475123 0.259 23690.324 43010 11 0.000 0.254 0.321 0.450 OK
Shohei OhtaniDH 134518142 0.274 30790.376 43010 10 0.000 0.266 0.358 0.469 OK
Will SmithC 7023561 0.260 10330.352 44212 00 0.500 0.320 0.396 0.507 OK
Freddie Freeman1B 152575166 0.289 16680.363 43211 10 0.667 0.248 0.314 0.368 OK
Teoscar HernándezLF 123438117 0.267 16630.333 43000 13 0.000 0.265 0.318 0.434 OK
Kyle TuckerRF 150535125 0.234 17700.326 44000 01 0.000 0.237 0.318 0.388 OK
Andy PagesCF 132507139 0.274 23840.343 44212 00 0.500 0.281 0.345 0.506 OK
Max Muncy3B 147484121 0.250 29760.345 44000 02 0.000 0.253 0.336 0.453 OK
Tommy Edman2B 8028770 0.244 8400.323 32000 12 0.000 0.250 0.303 0.417 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35306 55 59 0.200

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Dylan DoddStarter 4944.53.03 1.03410.753 5.232237104 5.2 7 3
Raisel IglesiasCloser 6159.92.55 1.1199.664 1.11110128 1.1 1 1
Didier FuentesSetup Man 6069.62.72 1.20712.093 1.02222127 1.0 1 1

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Tarik SkubalStarter 1061.32.64 1.06010.370 6.151117111 6.1 7 1
Tanner ScottCloser 6958.32.93 1.08112.782 1.01221020 1.0 0 2
Justin WrobleskiSetup Man 28137.93.72 1.1607.7118 1.11000122 1.1 1 0
Evan PhillipsMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 3122.54.00 1.24413.233 0.12111114 0.1 1 1

Game Summary

LAD wins 5-4


Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians

CHW 84-78 (4.79 RPG / 4.44 RA)
4 - 2
CLE 85-77 (4.19 RPG / 4.12 RA)
WINNER: CHW wins 4-2 TARGET: CHW 4 - 2 CLE (CHW) Confidence: 52.3% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
12345678910RH
CHW210000000147
CLE000002000025

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs6.5
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff22
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs5.3
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff21
Off Trendhot
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

CHW Season Quality

Record84-78
Win%0.519
Run Diff56
RD/Game0.346

CLE Season Quality

Record85-77
Win%0.525
Run Diff11
RD/Game0.068

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.1605; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Chase Meidroth2B 155573160 0.279 17670.352 55000 01 0.000 0.342 0.399 0.561 OK
Randal GrichukLF 9923169 0.299 14420.328 55212 01 0.400 0.286 0.317 0.549 OK
Miguel Vargas3B 160597147 0.246 33930.358 54000 12 0.000 0.213 0.323 0.383 OK
Munetaka Murakami1B 12946295 0.206 35780.345 55210 00 0.400 0.211 0.331 0.482 OK
Tommy PhamDH 7133 0.231 130.412 52111 10 0.500 0.135 0.250 0.226 OK
Brenton DoyleCF 328923 0.258 490.258 55000 01 0.000 0.243 0.279 0.417 OK
Kyle TeelC 4012928 0.217 5270.325 43000 10 0.000 0.249 0.321 0.377 OK
Braden MontgomeryRF 9433175 0.227 6380.311 44211 00 0.500 0.246 0.312 0.355 OK
Colson MontgomerySS 155574113 0.197 32880.283 44000 00 0.000 0.155 0.226 0.329 OK
TEAM TOTALS 42377 44 35 0.189

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Steven KwanCF 145526149 0.283 3320.381 55100 01 0.200 0.290 0.394 0.363 OK
José Ramírez3B 121461108 0.234 12530.321 44100 00 0.250 0.220 0.293 0.326 OK
Chase DeLauterRF 128482138 0.286 16660.362 44000 01 0.000 0.249 0.325 0.436 OK
Jo AdellDH 4717743 0.243 7310.325 44000 01 0.000 0.240 0.295 0.400 OK
Angel MartínezLF 10738999 0.254 18620.290 44112 02 0.250 0.229 0.253 0.446 OK
David Fry1B 8118237 0.203 8200.296 43000 12 0.000 0.216 0.288 0.388 OK
Travis Bazzana2B 121440106 0.241 15550.330 44210 00 0.500 0.232 0.307 0.388 OK
Austin HedgesC 7421553 0.247 6250.325 43000 11 0.000 0.201 0.294 0.347 OK
Brayan RocchioSS 149522132 0.253 13670.312 44000 01 0.000 0.277 0.323 0.474 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37355 22 29 0.143

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Hagen SmithStarter 1828.20.96 0.99313.442 5.02002577 5.0 5 0
Grant TaylorCloser 4151.92.60 1.11813.276 1.12220118 1.1 1 2
Bryan HudsonSetup Man 6657.42.98 1.3249.359 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Sean NewcombMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5373.63.18 1.2779.578 1.10000117 1.1 1 0
Jordan HicksMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4233.74.54 1.78013.149 0.1000014 0.1 1 0
Huascar BrazobánMiddle Reliever 000.00 0.0000.00 1.01000116 0.0 1 0

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Parker MessickStarter 32179.82.65 1.1019.7193 6.053315101 6.0 5 3
Cade SmithCloser 6969.12.08 1.02713.9107 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Hunter GaddisSetup Man 6751.03.35 1.43110.157 1.01001020 0.0 0 0
Erik SabrowskiMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5838.33.05 1.33217.976 2.01111032 2.0 0 1

Game Summary

CHW wins 4-2


New York Yankees @ Tampa Bay Rays

NYY 93-68 (4.59 RPG / 3.73 RA)
3 - 4
TB 98-64 (4.54 RPG / 4.01 RA)
WINNER: TB wins 4-3 TARGET: NYY 3 - 4 TB (TB) Confidence: 51.8% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
NYY02000000134
TB00020200x48

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.6
Avg Allowed4.5
Run Diff1
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

TB Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.8
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff6
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

NYY Season Quality

Record93-68
Win%0.578
Run Diff138
RD/Game0.857

TB Season Quality

Record98-64
Win%0.605
Run Diff86
RD/Game0.531

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.1757; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ben RiceDH 152569154 0.271 42990.371 44000 01 0.000 0.286 0.370 0.548 OK
Cody BellingerLF 131495132 0.267 18770.339 43111 11 0.333 0.238 0.301 0.405 OK
Luis García Jr.1B 4416445 0.274 8170.310 44000 00 0.000 0.260 0.294 0.491 OK
Spencer JonesRF 8426665 0.244 11400.311 44000 01 0.000 0.236 0.297 0.398 OK
George Lombard Jr.SS 4315740 0.255 7230.300 43110 10 0.333 0.274 0.310 0.470 OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B 134466110 0.236 19550.314 43000 11 0.000 0.264 0.344 0.395 OK
Trent GrishamCF 11641288 0.214 17580.308 43212 10 0.667 0.232 0.321 0.359 OK
Austin WellsC 12133965 0.192 14360.293 44000 01 0.000 0.215 0.324 0.385 OK
Ryan McMahon3B 11332570 0.215 11420.279 33000 00 0.000 0.224 0.283 0.378 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35314 33 45 0.129

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Yandy DíazDH 153610180 0.295 22850.361 44311 00 0.750 0.271 0.320 0.374 OK
Jonathan Aranda1B 154577159 0.276 22920.358 44000 03 0.000 0.240 0.323 0.384 OK
Junior Caminero3B 161612169 0.276 421010.361 43000 10 0.000 0.261 0.340 0.469 OK
Liam HicksC 4112536 0.288 4200.379 43000 10 0.000 0.259 0.326 0.363 OK
Chandler SimpsonLF 147571175 0.306 0380.332 44210 00 0.500 0.278 0.301 0.321 OK
Victor Mesa Jr.RF 7123561 0.260 14340.322 44111 02 0.250 0.254 0.311 0.437 OK
Jonny DeLucaCF 10334693 0.269 11500.303 44000 01 0.000 0.277 0.319 0.464 OK
Richie Palacios2B 11834581 0.235 10570.330 44212 01 0.500 0.234 0.323 0.377 OK
Taylor WallsSS 11736681 0.221 2360.309 32000 10 0.000 0.218 0.302 0.302 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35328 44 37 0.250

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Gerrit ColeStarter 22124.23.70 1.1279.5131 5.273336104 5.2 6 3
David BednarCloser 6565.92.59 1.10810.577 0.21110011 0.2 0 1
Brent HeadrickSetup Man 8262.82.72 1.51314.098 1.20000117 1.2 1 0

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Drew RasmussenStarter 30170.62.69 0.9209.2174 6.012235103 6.0 5 2
Bryan BakerCloser 6360.71.33 0.8909.363 1.01001023 1.0 0 0
Kevin KellySetup Man 7162.72.87 1.0539.063 1.01000016 1.0 0 0
Cam BooserMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4233.32.43 0.93112.245 1.01110016 1.0 0 1

Game Summary

TB wins 4-3


San Diego Padres @ Milwaukee Brewers

SD 91-71 (4.46 RPG / 4.2 RA)
4 - 6
MIL 103-59 (5.14 RPG / 3.81 RA)
WINNER: MIL wins 6-4 TARGET: SD 4 - 6 MIL (MIL) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
SD000001102410
MIL01200120x68

SD Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs6.3
Avg Allowed4.5
Run Diff18
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs4.4
Avg Allowed3.0
Run Diff14
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak5W

SD Season Quality

Record91-71
Win%0.562
Run Diff41
RD/Game0.253

MIL Season Quality

Record103-59
Win%0.636
Run Diff214
RD/Game1.321

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.723; margin adjustment: 0.3037; applied: True

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF 159633183 0.289 26830.357 54211 11 0.500 0.286 0.346 0.490 OK
Dustin HarrisLF 279630 0.312 0140.346 55000 01 0.000 0.269 0.310 0.373 OK
Manny Machado3B 160596131 0.220 31930.306 54212 10 0.500 0.234 0.306 0.447 OK
Ty France1B 129448134 0.299 21720.364 55311 00 0.600 0.301 0.352 0.451 OK
Jackson MerrillCF 159620160 0.258 26890.307 54000 11 0.000 0.315 0.358 0.460 OK
Xander BogaertsSS 155528124 0.235 14590.334 44000 02 0.000 0.303 0.391 0.501 OK
Ethan SalasC 174010 0.250 260.262 44100 01 0.250 0.278 0.300 0.414 OK
Luis CampusanoDH 7121958 0.265 8300.359 43110 10 0.333 0.249 0.334 0.391 OK
Jake Cronenworth2B 11038386 0.225 7410.308 44100 01 0.250 0.210 0.281 0.326 OK
TEAM TOTALS 413710 44 47 0.270

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jackson ChourioLF 125516152 0.295 25750.354 44111 00 0.250 0.336 0.391 0.530 OK
Brice Turang2B 147571157 0.275 211010.370 43112 11 0.333 0.287 0.364 0.509 OK
William ContrerasC 145561151 0.269 18930.339 44110 01 0.250 0.249 0.315 0.368 OK
Jake Bauers1B 138468124 0.265 25840.385 44212 02 0.500 0.236 0.350 0.413 OK
Christian YelichDH 11442798 0.230 12570.312 44000 00 0.000 0.218 0.300 0.367 OK
Cooper PrattSS 7022262 0.279 3330.345 43211 10 0.667 0.283 0.354 0.360 OK
Luis LaraRF 5518846 0.245 1260.304 44000 00 0.000 0.236 0.293 0.307 OK
Garrett MitchellCF 137450116 0.258 10580.346 44000 01 0.000 0.244 0.326 0.374 OK
Joey Ortiz3B 11636397 0.267 9460.326 32110 10 0.500 0.277 0.336 0.412 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35328 66 35 0.250

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Robbie RayStarter 942.35.11 1.5607.033 5.06331497 5.0 4 3
Mason MillerCloser 6767.51.73 0.94817.5131 1.01110016 1.0 0 1
Adrian MorejonSetup Man 7778.23.11 1.20212.3107 0.11221111 0.1 1 2
Bradgley RodriguezMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6766.11.91 1.10411.383 1.20001025 1.2 0 0

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jacob MisiorowskiStarter 30173.51.82 0.80713.1252 6.041146116 6.0 6 1
Trevor MegillCloser 6260.52.08 0.87610.369 1.01110116 1.0 1 1
Abner UribeSetup Man 6154.92.13 1.11110.262 1.02000019 1.0 0 0
Aaron AshbyMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 7582.13.40 1.42512.7116 1.03220026 1.0 0 2

Game Summary

MIL wins 6-4