MLB Predictions — October 1, 2026

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
BOS @ NYY	4 - 5	4 - 5	NYY	NYY	NYY wins 5-4	52%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CHC @ SD	4 - 5	4 - 5	SD	SD	SD wins 5-4	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CHW @ HOU	6 - 5	6 - 5	CHW	CHW	CHW wins 6-5	50%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
PHI @ ATL	3 - 4	3 - 4	ATL	ATL	ATL wins 4-3	52%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees

BOS 87-75 (4.25 RPG / 3.77 RA)

4 - 5

NYY 93-68 (4.59 RPG / 3.73 RA)

WINNER: NYY wins 5-4 TARGET: BOS 4 - 5 NYY (NYY) Confidence: 52.2% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BOS	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	4	8
NYY	0	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	1	5	6

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs2.1

Avg Allowed2.5

Run Diff-4

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak1L

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.6

Avg Allowed4.5

Run Diff1

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

BOS Season Quality

Record87-75

Win%0.537

Run Diff78

RD/Game0.481

NYY Season Quality

Record93-68

Win%0.578

Run Diff138

RD/Game0.857

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.3398; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jahmai Jones	DH	32	62	20	0.323	4	9	0.382	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.126	0.191	0.248	OK
Adley Rutschman	C	33	121	27	0.223	5	13	0.277	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.246	0.301	0.415	OK
Willson Contreras	1B	127	443	121	0.273	27	81	0.384	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.232	0.318	0.457	OK
Wilyer Abreu	RF	155	587	147	0.250	23	75	0.330	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.212	0.286	0.360	OK
Ceddanne Rafaela	CF	134	530	149	0.281	15	67	0.318	4	4	1	1	1	0	3	0.250	0.260	0.289	0.373	OK
Caleb Durbin	3B	148	500	120	0.240	13	61	0.323	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.211	0.276	0.309	OK
Nick Sogard	2B	65	238	59	0.248	5	18	0.336	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.214	0.297	0.317	OK
Trevor Story	SS	65	254	60	0.236	5	29	0.271	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.194	0.231	0.321	OK
Nate Eaton	LF	20	50	8	0.160	1	5	0.288	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.140	0.255	0.214	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	35	8	4	4	1	6	0.229

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ben Rice	DH	152	569	154	0.271	42	99	0.371	5	4	1	1	0	1	2	0.250	0.342	0.420	0.746	OK
Cody Bellinger	LF	131	495	132	0.267	18	77	0.339	5	4	1	1	2	1	2	0.250	0.234	0.299	0.396	OK
Luis García Jr.	1B	44	164	45	0.274	8	17	0.310	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.144	0.190	0.314	OK
Spencer Jones	RF	84	266	65	0.244	11	40	0.311	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.234	0.299	0.404	OK
George Lombard Jr.	SS	43	157	40	0.255	7	23	0.300	4	3	0	0	0	1	3	0.000	0.282	0.317	0.499	OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2B	134	466	110	0.236	19	55	0.314	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.245	0.325	0.380	OK
Trent Grisham	CF	116	412	88	0.214	17	58	0.308	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.122	0.225	0.225	OK
Austin Wells	C	121	339	65	0.192	14	36	0.293	4	1	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.216	0.330	0.400	OK
Ryan McMahon	3B	113	325	70	0.215	11	42	0.279	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.151	0.222	0.297	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	32	6	5	5	5	14	0.188

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Ranger Suarez	Starter	28	144.6	3.30	1.217	8.7	140	5.2	5	3	3	2	11	106	5.2	11	4
Aroldis Chapman	Closer	52	51.2	1.41	1.055	12.5	71	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	25	1.0	1	1
Erik Miller	Setup Man	20	18.3	3.93	1.530	14.3	29	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	6	0.1	1	0
Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	54	50.7	1.78	0.927	10.5	59	1.2	1	2	2	3	1	40	1.0	1	0

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Gerrit Cole	Starter	22	124.2	3.70	1.127	9.5	131	5.2	7	3	3	1	6	96	5.2	6	3
David Bednar	Closer	65	65.9	2.59	1.108	10.5	77	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	16	1.0	0	1
Brent Headrick	Setup Man	82	62.8	2.72	1.513	14.0	98	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	63	77.1	1.87	1.219	8.1	69	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	14	1.1	0	0

Game Summary

NYY wins 5-4

Chicago Cubs @ San Diego Padres

CHC 89-73 (5.25 RPG / 4.34 RA)

4 - 5

SD 91-71 (4.46 RPG / 4.2 RA)

WINNER: SD wins 5-4 TARGET: CHC 4 - 5 SD (SD) Confidence: 53.4% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	4	9
SD	1	2	0	0	2	0	0	0	x	5	9

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.1

Avg Allowed3.3

Run Diff8

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak1W

SD Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs6.3

Avg Allowed4.5

Run Diff18

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak2W

CHC Season Quality

Record89-73

Win%0.549

Run Diff147

RD/Game0.907

SD Season Quality

Record91-71

Win%0.562

Run Diff41

RD/Game0.253

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.2355; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	161	621	174	0.280	45	107	0.374	5	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.263	0.352	0.461	OK
Alex Bregman	DH	155	608	161	0.265	28	93	0.355	5	5	2	1	0	0	0	0.400	0.266	0.350	0.499	OK
Michael Busch	1B	159	596	144	0.242	19	75	0.352	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.246	0.344	0.387	OK
Seiya Suzuki	RF	142	543	148	0.273	26	86	0.370	5	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.291	0.378	0.490	OK
Ian Happ	LF	151	542	118	0.218	24	68	0.322	5	3	1	1	0	2	1	0.333	0.187	0.277	0.356	OK
Nico Hoerner	2B	158	626	166	0.265	8	72	0.316	5	5	3	1	4	0	0	0.600	0.265	0.305	0.336	OK
Matt Shaw	3B	65	171	41	0.240	5	22	0.316	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.233	0.309	0.390	OK
Carson Kelly	C	116	383	98	0.256	10	57	0.333	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.217	0.278	0.312	OK
Dansby Swanson	SS	123	423	89	0.210	17	62	0.296	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.189	0.277	0.331	OK
TEAM TOTALS									43	36	9	4	4	5	6	0.250

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Fernando Tatis Jr.	RF	159	633	183	0.289	26	83	0.357	4	3	2	1	2	1	0	0.667	0.336	0.394	0.575	OK
Dustin Harris	LF	27	96	30	0.312	0	14	0.346	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.249	0.295	0.362	OK
Manny Machado	3B	160	596	131	0.220	31	93	0.306	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.239	0.314	0.480	OK
Ty France	1B	129	448	134	0.299	21	72	0.364	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.278	0.331	0.424	OK
Jackson Merrill	CF	159	620	160	0.258	26	89	0.307	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.297	0.335	0.441	OK
Xander Bogaerts	SS	155	528	124	0.235	14	59	0.334	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.293	0.392	0.506	OK
Ethan Salas	C	17	40	10	0.250	2	6	0.262	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.343	0.364	0.497	OK
Austin Hays	DH	26	62	18	0.290	2	7	0.302	4	4	2	1	3	0	0	0.500	0.299	0.319	0.421	OK
Jake Cronenworth	2B	110	383	86	0.225	7	41	0.308	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.232	0.300	0.355	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	33	9	5	5	3	7	0.273

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Kevin Gausman	Starter	9	48.7	4.99	1.273	10.5	57	5.2	9	5	5	3	7	115	5.2	7	5
Jacob Webb	Closer	69	61.1	3.68	1.408	10.8	73	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	31	27.1	3.65	1.218	10.0	30	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Nick Pivetta	Starter	9	37.3	2.90	1.072	11.1	46	5.0	3	0	0	3	5	92	5.0	5	0
Mason Miller	Closer	67	67.5	1.73	0.948	17.5	131	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	77	78.2	3.11	1.202	12.3	107	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	67	66.1	1.91	1.104	11.3	83	1.1	3	2	2	1	0	30	1.1	0	2
Jason Adam	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	39	33.0	2.73	1.212	6.0	22	0.2	2	2	2	1	0	18	0.2	0	2

Game Summary

SD wins 5-4

Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros

CHW 84-78 (4.79 RPG / 4.44 RA)

6 - 5

HOU 81-81 (4.53 RPG / 4.73 RA)

WINNER: CHW wins 6-5 TARGET: CHW 6 - 5 HOU (CHW) Confidence: 50.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHW	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	3	6	11
HOU	0	1	0	0	3	0	0	0	1	5	7

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs6.5

Avg Allowed4.3

Run Diff22

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs5.9

Avg Allowed3.7

Run Diff22

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak2W

CHW Season Quality

Record84-78

Win%0.519

Run Diff56

RD/Game0.346

HOU Season Quality

Record81-81

Win%0.500

Run Diff-32

RD/Game-0.198

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.4495; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Sam Antonacci	LF	140	483	134	0.277	8	50	0.372	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.307	0.364	0.417	OK
Kyle Teel	C	39	124	26	0.210	5	26	0.322	5	4	2	1	1	1	0	0.500	0.264	0.340	0.412	OK
Miguel Vargas	3B	159	592	147	0.248	33	93	0.361	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.232	0.347	0.418	OK
Munetaka Murakami	1B	128	457	95	0.208	35	78	0.348	5	5	3	1	3	0	0	0.600	0.225	0.348	0.505	OK
Andrew Benintendi	DH	142	422	101	0.239	15	78	0.303	5	4	2	1	1	1	1	0.500	0.180	0.269	0.362	OK
Tristan Peters	CF	148	441	117	0.265	12	56	0.333	5	4	1	1	1	1	0	0.250	0.228	0.276	0.351	OK
Chase Meidroth	2B	154	570	158	0.277	16	64	0.350	5	5	1	1	0	0	3	0.200	0.344	0.401	0.519	OK
Braden Montgomery	RF	93	327	75	0.229	6	38	0.314	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.264	0.330	0.381	OK
Colson Montgomery	SS	154	571	113	0.198	32	88	0.283	4	4	1	0	0	0	3	0.250	0.166	0.230	0.370	OK
TEAM TOTALS									43	38	11	6	6	5	10	0.289

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jeremy Peña	SS	111	451	125	0.277	22	56	0.324	5	3	1	1	2	1	0	0.333	0.270	0.298	0.464	OK
Yordan Alvarez	LF	158	567	180	0.317	42	106	0.434	5	4	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.315	0.419	0.585	OK
Isaac Paredes	DH	155	562	145	0.258	25	94	0.357	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.260	0.346	0.468	OK
Jose Altuve	2B	135	528	131	0.248	16	50	0.303	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.219	0.267	0.320	OK
Yainer Diaz	C	93	344	97	0.282	14	44	0.310	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.262	0.282	0.408	OK
Christian Walker	1B	155	569	129	0.227	29	87	0.302	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.228	0.308	0.491	OK
Lucas Spence	CF	18	59	13	0.220	4	12	0.313	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.230	0.311	0.525	OK
Cam Smith	RF	149	514	108	0.210	21	55	0.278	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.215	0.283	0.395	OK
Nick Allen	3B	60	145	41	0.283	3	14	0.327	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.289	0.337	0.429	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	33	7	5	5	4	5	0.212

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Sean Burke	Starter	32	167.9	3.43	1.227	9.9	185	5.0	6	4	4	3	3	103	5.0	3	4
Grant Taylor	Closer	41	51.9	2.60	1.118	13.2	76	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
Sean Newcomb	Setup Man	53	73.6	3.18	1.277	9.5	78	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0
Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	66	57.4	2.98	1.324	9.3	59	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	42	33.7	4.54	1.780	13.1	49	0.1	1	1	1	1	0	11	0.1	0	1

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Hunter Brown	Starter	20	104.3	3.28	1.304	10.7	124	5.2	6	2	2	2	7	103	5.2	7	2
Josh Hader	Closer	45	44.5	0.81	0.719	11.3	56	1.0	3	1	1	1	1	26	1.0	1	1
Logan VanWey	Setup Man	11	12.3	1.46	0.976	6.6	9	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	66	56.9	4.11	1.459	12.8	81	1.1	2	3	3	2	1	31	1.1	1	3

Game Summary

CHW wins 6-5

Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves

PHI 88-74 (4.4 RPG / 4.31 RA)

3 - 4

ATL 94-69 (4.56 RPG / 3.88 RA)

WINNER: ATL wins 4-3 TARGET: PHI 3 - 4 ATL (ATL) Confidence: 51.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PHI	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	3	5
ATL	0	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	1	4	11

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.2

Avg Allowed4.8

Run Diff-16

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.0

Avg Allowed3.9

Run Diff1

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

PHI Season Quality

Record88-74

Win%0.543

Run Diff15

RD/Game0.093

ATL Season Quality

Record94-68

Win%0.580

Run Diff116

RD/Game0.716

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.559; margin adjustment: 0.2348; applied: True

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Trea Turner	SS	156	649	157	0.242	19	58	0.296	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.233	0.276	0.337	OK
Kyle Schwarber	DH	156	587	136	0.232	45	97	0.351	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.224	0.334	0.473	OK
Bryce Harper	RF	162	582	156	0.268	30	89	0.378	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.254	0.356	0.469	OK
Alec Bohm	1B	154	575	144	0.250	16	89	0.317	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.239	0.305	0.383	OK
Bryson Stott	2B	156	541	138	0.255	10	66	0.333	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.283	0.352	0.416	OK
Bryan De La Cruz	LF	32	80	22	0.275	2	12	0.348	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.246	0.314	0.359	OK
Edmundo Sosa	3B	84	237	59	0.249	9	44	0.282	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.252	0.269	0.457	OK
J.T. Realmuto	C	123	421	87	0.207	11	53	0.281	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.185	0.242	0.303	OK
Justin Crawford	CF	145	426	110	0.258	3	40	0.304	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.251	0.288	0.330	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	32	5	3	3	2	7	0.156

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Drake Baldwin	C	139	550	156	0.284	25	80	0.357	5	4	3	1	0	0	1	0.750	0.279	0.327	0.428	OK
Ronald Acuña Jr.	RF	108	411	104	0.253	20	55	0.346	5	5	2	1	2	0	3	0.400	0.230	0.311	0.390	OK
Matt Olson	1B	163	627	156	0.249	40	93	0.317	4	3	1	1	0	1	2	0.333	0.226	0.288	0.419	OK
Michael Harris II	CF	156	597	179	0.300	26	87	0.324	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.367	0.384	0.522	OK
Mauricio Dubón	SS	154	574	160	0.279	12	73	0.323	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.292	0.327	0.424	OK
Mike Yastrzemski	LF	134	361	81	0.224	12	41	0.302	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.137	0.214	0.252	OK
Austin Riley	3B	160	566	125	0.221	20	75	0.294	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.220	0.282	0.405	OK
Ozzie Albies	2B	163	614	148	0.241	22	74	0.299	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.211	0.270	0.343	OK
Dominic Smith	DH	100	268	67	0.250	9	44	0.294	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.120	0.179	0.259	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	35	11	4	4	2	12	0.314

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Aaron Nola	Starter	33	171.6	4.77	1.375	9.3	177	5.1	9	2	2	2	6	114	5.1	6	2
Jhoan Duran	Closer	61	60.4	1.94	0.960	12.7	85	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13	1.0	3	0
Jonathan Bowlan	Setup Man	59	51.2	3.69	1.133	12.8	73	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	8	0.2	2	0
Alex McFarlane	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	21	18.7	3.37	1.283	10.6	22	1.1	2	2	2	0	1	24	1.0	1	2

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Ray Kerr	Starter	9	17.4	1.55	0.632	5.7	11	4.2	0	0	0	0	5	71	4.2	5	0
Raisel Iglesias	Closer	61	59.9	2.55	1.119	9.6	64	2.0	0	0	0	1	0	33	2.0	0	0
Didier Fuentes	Setup Man	59	68.6	2.76	1.224	12.2	93	1.1	1	0	0	1	1	24	1.1	1	0
Dylan Lee	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	72	59.8	3.46	1.054	11.9	79	1.0	4	3	3	0	1	25	1.0	1	3

Game Summary

ATL wins 4-3

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

All Games Overview

Boston Red Sox @ New York Yankees

BOS Recent Form

NYY Recent Form

BOS Season Quality

NYY Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Chicago Cubs @ San Diego Padres

CHC Recent Form

SD Recent Form

CHC Season Quality

SD Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Chicago White Sox @ Houston Astros

CHW Recent Form

HOU Recent Form

CHW Season Quality

HOU Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves

PHI Recent Form

ATL Recent Form

PHI Season Quality

ATL Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary