| Matchup | Target Score | Sim Score | Target Winner | Sim Winner | Winner | Confidence | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS @ NYY | 3 - 4 | 3 - 4 | NYY | NYY | NYY wins 4-3 | 54% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| CHC @ SD | 4 - 5 | 4 - 5 | SD | SD | SD wins 5-4 | 52% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| CHW @ HOU | 6 - 5 | 6 - 5 | CHW | CHW | CHW wins 6-5 | 50% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| PHI @ ATL | 3 - 4 | 3 - 4 | ATL | ATL | ATL wins 4-3 | 51% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 7 |
| NYY | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | x | 4 | 11 |
Quality edge: 0.3398; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jahmai Jones | DH | 32 | 62 | 20 | 0.323 | 4 | 9 | 0.382 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.119 | 0.185 | 0.227 | OK |
| Adley Rutschman | C | 33 | 121 | 27 | 0.223 | 5 | 13 | 0.277 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.251 | 0.307 | 0.418 | OK |
| Willson Contreras | 1B | 127 | 443 | 121 | 0.273 | 27 | 81 | 0.384 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.232 | 0.318 | 0.453 | OK |
| Wilyer Abreu | RF | 155 | 587 | 147 | 0.250 | 23 | 75 | 0.330 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.205 | 0.280 | 0.347 | OK |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | CF | 134 | 530 | 149 | 0.281 | 15 | 67 | 0.318 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.250 | 0.278 | 0.352 | OK |
| Caleb Durbin | 3B | 148 | 500 | 120 | 0.240 | 13 | 61 | 0.323 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.209 | 0.273 | 0.304 | OK |
| Nick Sogard | 2B | 65 | 238 | 59 | 0.248 | 5 | 18 | 0.336 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.217 | 0.298 | 0.314 | OK |
| Trevor Story | SS | 65 | 254 | 60 | 0.236 | 5 | 29 | 0.271 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.191 | 0.228 | 0.318 | OK |
| Nate Eaton | LF | 20 | 50 | 8 | 0.160 | 1 | 5 | 0.288 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.140 | 0.255 | 0.214 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 33 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 0.212 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Ben Rice | DH | 151 | 565 | 153 | 0.271 | 42 | 99 | 0.371 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.349 | 0.424 | 0.756 | OK |
| Cody Bellinger | LF | 130 | 490 | 130 | 0.265 | 17 | 73 | 0.339 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.228 | 0.295 | 0.383 | OK |
| Luis García Jr. | 1B | 43 | 159 | 42 | 0.264 | 7 | 16 | 0.302 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.145 | 0.191 | 0.291 | OK |
| Spencer Jones | RF | 83 | 261 | 64 | 0.245 | 11 | 40 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.234 | 0.299 | 0.404 | OK |
| George Lombard Jr. | SS | 42 | 153 | 39 | 0.255 | 7 | 22 | 0.301 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.285 | 0.320 | 0.497 | OK |
| Jazz Chisholm Jr. | 2B | 133 | 463 | 108 | 0.233 | 19 | 55 | 0.311 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.243 | 0.324 | 0.370 | OK |
| Trent Grisham | CF | 115 | 409 | 86 | 0.210 | 17 | 58 | 0.304 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.114 | 0.218 | 0.217 | OK |
| Austin Wells | C | 120 | 336 | 64 | 0.190 | 14 | 34 | 0.293 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.214 | 0.328 | 0.398 | OK |
| Ryan McMahon | 3B | 112 | 322 | 69 | 0.214 | 11 | 41 | 0.278 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.151 | 0.222 | 0.285 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 35 | 11 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0.314 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Sonny Gray | Starter | 29 | 167.6 | 2.74 | 1.158 | 8.0 | 149 | 6.0 | 10 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 106 | 6.0 | 4 | 3 |
| Aroldis Chapman | Closer | 52 | 51.2 | 1.41 | 1.055 | 12.5 | 71 | 2.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Max Fried | Starter | 20 | 109.4 | 2.88 | 1.024 | 8.6 | 104 | 6.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 86 | 6.0 | 5 | 0 |
| David Bednar | Closer | 64 | 64.9 | 2.63 | 1.109 | 10.5 | 76 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brent Headrick | Setup Man | 81 | 62.7 | 2.73 | 1.515 | 14.1 | 98 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Paul Blackburn | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 63 | 77.1 | 1.87 | 1.219 | 8.1 | 69 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
NYY wins 4-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| SD | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | x | 5 | 9 |
Quality edge: -0.2355; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | CF | 161 | 621 | 174 | 0.280 | 45 | 107 | 0.374 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.200 | 0.254 | 0.343 | 0.447 | OK |
| Alex Bregman | DH | 155 | 608 | 161 | 0.265 | 28 | 93 | 0.355 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.266 | 0.350 | 0.499 | OK |
| Michael Busch | 1B | 159 | 596 | 144 | 0.242 | 19 | 75 | 0.352 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.248 | 0.347 | 0.382 | OK |
| Seiya Suzuki | RF | 142 | 543 | 148 | 0.273 | 26 | 86 | 0.370 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.288 | 0.376 | 0.474 | OK |
| Ian Happ | LF | 151 | 542 | 118 | 0.218 | 24 | 68 | 0.322 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.187 | 0.278 | 0.354 | OK |
| Nico Hoerner | 2B | 158 | 626 | 166 | 0.265 | 8 | 72 | 0.316 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.267 | 0.307 | 0.339 | OK |
| Matt Shaw | 3B | 65 | 171 | 41 | 0.240 | 5 | 22 | 0.316 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.233 | 0.309 | 0.390 | OK |
| Carson Kelly | C | 116 | 383 | 98 | 0.256 | 10 | 57 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.215 | 0.276 | 0.306 | OK |
| Dansby Swanson | SS | 123 | 423 | 89 | 0.210 | 17 | 62 | 0.296 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.000 | 0.191 | 0.278 | 0.342 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 34 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 11 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | RF | 158 | 629 | 183 | 0.291 | 26 | 83 | 0.359 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.337 | 0.395 | 0.570 | OK |
| Dustin Harris | LF | 26 | 92 | 30 | 0.326 | 0 | 14 | 0.360 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.245 | 0.291 | 0.353 | OK |
| Manny Machado | 3B | 159 | 592 | 130 | 0.220 | 31 | 93 | 0.306 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.237 | 0.313 | 0.483 | OK |
| Ty France | 1B | 128 | 444 | 132 | 0.297 | 21 | 72 | 0.363 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.285 | 0.337 | 0.431 | OK |
| Jackson Merrill | CF | 158 | 617 | 158 | 0.256 | 26 | 89 | 0.304 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.293 | 0.331 | 0.429 | OK |
| Xander Bogaerts | SS | 154 | 524 | 122 | 0.233 | 14 | 58 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.292 | 0.390 | 0.508 | OK |
| Ethan Salas | C | 16 | 39 | 10 | 0.256 | 2 | 5 | 0.275 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.343 | 0.364 | 0.497 | OK |
| Austin Hays | DH | 25 | 61 | 18 | 0.295 | 2 | 7 | 0.306 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.295 | 0.315 | 0.410 | OK |
| Jake Cronenworth | 2B | 109 | 381 | 86 | 0.226 | 7 | 41 | 0.308 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.233 | 0.299 | 0.339 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 33 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 0.273 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Kevin Gausman | Starter | 9 | 48.7 | 4.99 | 1.273 | 10.5 | 57 | 5.2 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 104 | 5.2 | 9 | 4 |
| Jacob Webb | Closer | 69 | 61.1 | 3.68 | 1.408 | 10.8 | 73 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Palencia | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 31 | 27.1 | 3.65 | 1.218 | 10.0 | 30 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 27 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Nick Pivetta | Starter | 8 | 34.2 | 2.89 | 1.023 | 11.1 | 42 | 5.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 106 | 5.0 | 5 | 2 |
| Mason Miller | Closer | 66 | 66.5 | 1.76 | 0.947 | 17.5 | 129 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Adrian Morejon | Setup Man | 76 | 76.2 | 3.19 | 1.220 | 12.6 | 107 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 |
| Bradgley Rodriguez | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 66 | 64.9 | 1.94 | 1.109 | 11.2 | 81 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 29 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Jason Adam | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 38 | 32.0 | 2.81 | 1.250 | 6.2 | 22 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 |
SD wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHW | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
Quality edge: -0.4495; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Sam Antonacci | LF | 140 | 483 | 134 | 0.277 | 8 | 50 | 0.372 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.307 | 0.364 | 0.417 | OK |
| Kyle Teel | C | 39 | 124 | 26 | 0.210 | 5 | 26 | 0.322 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.263 | 0.339 | 0.406 | OK |
| Miguel Vargas | 3B | 159 | 592 | 147 | 0.248 | 33 | 93 | 0.361 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.232 | 0.347 | 0.419 | OK |
| Munetaka Murakami | 1B | 128 | 457 | 95 | 0.208 | 35 | 78 | 0.348 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.225 | 0.348 | 0.505 | OK |
| Andrew Benintendi | DH | 142 | 422 | 101 | 0.239 | 15 | 78 | 0.303 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.178 | 0.267 | 0.348 | OK |
| Tristan Peters | CF | 148 | 441 | 117 | 0.265 | 12 | 56 | 0.333 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.221 | 0.269 | 0.342 | OK |
| Chase Meidroth | 2B | 154 | 570 | 158 | 0.277 | 16 | 64 | 0.350 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.345 | 0.401 | 0.509 | OK |
| Braden Montgomery | RF | 93 | 327 | 75 | 0.229 | 6 | 38 | 0.314 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.750 | 0.264 | 0.330 | 0.381 | OK |
| Colson Montgomery | SS | 154 | 571 | 113 | 0.198 | 32 | 88 | 0.283 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.168 | 0.230 | 0.378 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 41 | 35 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 0.257 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jeremy Peña | SS | 111 | 451 | 125 | 0.277 | 22 | 56 | 0.324 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.600 | 0.269 | 0.296 | 0.464 | OK |
| Yordan Alvarez | DH | 158 | 567 | 180 | 0.317 | 42 | 106 | 0.434 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.307 | 0.403 | 0.548 | OK |
| Isaac Paredes | 3B | 155 | 562 | 145 | 0.258 | 25 | 94 | 0.357 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.263 | 0.342 | 0.500 | OK |
| Jose Altuve | 2B | 135 | 528 | 131 | 0.248 | 16 | 50 | 0.303 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.221 | 0.268 | 0.321 | OK |
| Yainer Diaz | C | 93 | 344 | 97 | 0.282 | 14 | 44 | 0.310 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.268 | 0.287 | 0.408 | OK |
| Christian Walker | 1B | 155 | 569 | 129 | 0.227 | 29 | 87 | 0.302 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.231 | 0.311 | 0.494 | OK |
| Lucas Spence | CF | 18 | 59 | 13 | 0.220 | 4 | 12 | 0.313 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.230 | 0.311 | 0.525 | OK |
| Cam Smith | RF | 149 | 514 | 108 | 0.210 | 21 | 55 | 0.278 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.216 | 0.285 | 0.390 | OK |
| Taylor Trammell | LF | 90 | 255 | 49 | 0.192 | 8 | 22 | 0.280 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.126 | 0.220 | 0.243 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 42 | 39 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 0.308 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Sean Burke | Starter | 32 | 167.9 | 3.43 | 1.227 | 9.9 | 185 | 5.0 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 98 | 5.0 | 5 | 2 |
| Grant Taylor | Closer | 41 | 51.9 | 2.60 | 1.118 | 13.2 | 76 | 1.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 27 | 1.1 | 3 | 2 |
| Sean Newcomb | Setup Man | 53 | 73.6 | 3.18 | 1.277 | 9.5 | 78 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Hudson | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 66 | 57.4 | 2.98 | 1.324 | 9.3 | 59 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Jordan Hicks | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 42 | 33.7 | 4.54 | 1.780 | 13.1 | 49 | 0.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0.1 | 1 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Hunter Brown | Starter | 20 | 104.3 | 3.28 | 1.304 | 10.7 | 124 | 5.2 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 102 | 5.2 | 7 | 3 |
| Josh Hader | Closer | 45 | 44.5 | 0.81 | 0.719 | 11.3 | 56 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Logan VanWey | Setup Man | 11 | 12.3 | 1.46 | 0.976 | 6.6 | 9 | 1.0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Bryan Abreu | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 66 | 56.9 | 4.11 | 1.459 | 12.8 | 81 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| AJ Blubaugh | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 65 | 89.9 | 3.90 | 1.346 | 9.4 | 94 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
CHW wins 6-5
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 |
| ATL | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
Quality edge: 0.559; margin adjustment: 0.2348; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Trea Turner | SS | 155 | 644 | 156 | 0.242 | 19 | 58 | 0.297 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.233 | 0.278 | 0.342 | OK |
| Kyle Schwarber | DH | 155 | 582 | 135 | 0.232 | 44 | 96 | 0.352 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.230 | 0.349 | 0.415 | OK |
| Bryce Harper | RF | 161 | 577 | 154 | 0.267 | 29 | 87 | 0.378 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.250 | 0.354 | 0.445 | OK |
| Alec Bohm | 1B | 153 | 571 | 142 | 0.249 | 15 | 88 | 0.315 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.225 | 0.291 | 0.345 | OK |
| Bryson Stott | 2B | 155 | 536 | 137 | 0.256 | 10 | 66 | 0.334 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.292 | 0.363 | 0.432 | OK |
| Brandon Marsh | LF | 153 | 521 | 136 | 0.261 | 18 | 62 | 0.306 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.142 | 0.199 | 0.240 | OK |
| Edmundo Sosa | 3B | 83 | 233 | 58 | 0.249 | 9 | 44 | 0.282 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.251 | 0.269 | 0.465 | OK |
| Justin Crawford | CF | 144 | 422 | 109 | 0.258 | 3 | 40 | 0.305 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.153 | 0.196 | 0.229 | OK |
| J.T. Realmuto | C | 122 | 417 | 86 | 0.206 | 11 | 53 | 0.281 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.169 | 0.234 | 0.284 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 36 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 0.167 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | RF | 107 | 408 | 104 | 0.255 | 20 | 55 | 0.345 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.231 | 0.301 | 0.401 | OK |
| Drake Baldwin | DH | 138 | 545 | 154 | 0.283 | 25 | 79 | 0.357 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.281 | 0.341 | 0.454 | OK |
| Ozzie Albies | 2B | 162 | 610 | 147 | 0.241 | 22 | 74 | 0.299 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.205 | 0.260 | 0.328 | OK |
| Matt Olson | 1B | 162 | 623 | 155 | 0.249 | 40 | 91 | 0.318 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.214 | 0.278 | 0.399 | OK |
| Mauricio Dubón | LF | 153 | 569 | 158 | 0.278 | 12 | 73 | 0.322 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.295 | 0.330 | 0.438 | OK |
| Austin Riley | 3B | 159 | 562 | 124 | 0.221 | 20 | 75 | 0.293 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.200 | 0.263 | 0.452 | OK |
| Michael Harris II | CF | 155 | 592 | 178 | 0.301 | 26 | 87 | 0.325 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.383 | 0.402 | 0.540 | OK |
| Sean Murphy | C | 33 | 110 | 20 | 0.182 | 3 | 10 | 0.256 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.182 | 0.252 | 0.270 | OK |
| Ha-Seong Kim | SS | 46 | 131 | 15 | 0.115 | 0 | 9 | 0.216 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.101 | 0.207 | 0.152 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 44 | 40 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0.300 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Cristopher Sánchez | Starter | 33 | 204.2 | 2.95 | 1.219 | 10.2 | 231 | 6.1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 101 | 6.1 | 5 | 2 |
| Jhoan Duran | Closer | 61 | 60.4 | 1.94 | 0.960 | 12.7 | 85 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 1.2 | 0 | 1 |
| Jonathan Bowlan | Setup Man | 59 | 51.2 | 3.69 | 1.133 | 12.8 | 73 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tim Mayza | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 60 | 61.5 | 3.80 | 1.236 | 9.4 | 64 | 1.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 28 | 0.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Tyler Mahle | Starter | 9 | 53.4 | 2.02 | 0.974 | 8.1 | 48 | 6.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 102 | 6.0 | 8 | 0 |
| Raisel Iglesias | Closer | 60 | 58.9 | 2.60 | 1.121 | 9.8 | 64 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 0.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Dylan Lee | Setup Man | 71 | 59.6 | 3.17 | 1.023 | 11.8 | 78 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Didier Fuentes | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 58 | 67.5 | 2.67 | 1.200 | 12.1 | 91 | 2.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 40 | 2.0 | 0 | 1 |
ATL wins 4-3