MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

September 27, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (15 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreTarget WinnerSim WinnerWinnerConfidenceMethod
ARI @ SD6 - 46 - 4ARIARIARI wins 6-451%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
ATL @ MIA4 - 54 - 5MIAMIAMIA wins 5-450%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
BAL @ NYY5 - 65 - 6NYYNYYNYY wins 6-552%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CHC @ BOS4 - 34 - 3CHCCHCCHC wins 4-351%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CIN @ TOR4 - 54 - 5TORTORTOR wins 5-451%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CLE @ KC6 - 46 - 4CLECLECLE wins 6-456%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
COL @ CHW5 - 85 - 8CHWCHWCHW wins 8-556%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
HOU @ OAK8 - 68 - 6HOUHOUHOU wins 8-656%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
LAA @ SEA3 - 53 - 5SEASEASEA wins 5-356%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
LAD @ SF6 - 36 - 3LADLADLAD wins 6-358%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
NYM @ WAS7 - 57 - 5NYMNYMNYM wins 7-553%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
PIT @ DET4 - 34 - 3PITPITPIT wins 4-350%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
STL @ MIL2 - 52 - 5MILMILMIL wins 5-258%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TB @ PHI4 - 34 - 3TBTBTB wins 4-358%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TEX @ MIN5 - 45 - 4TEXTEXTEX wins 5-451%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres

ARI 86-76 (4.56 RPG / 4.51 RA)
6 - 4
SD 91-71 (4.46 RPG / 4.2 RA)
WINNER: ARI wins 6-4 TARGET: ARI 6 - 4 SD (ARI) Confidence: 51.1% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
ARI100000302611
SD10100101044

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs6.2
Avg Allowed5.1
Run Diff11
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

SD Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs6.3
Avg Allowed4.4
Run Diff19
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

ARI Season Quality

Record86-75
Win%0.534
Run Diff14
RD/Game0.087

SD Season Quality

Record90-71
Win%0.559
Run Diff36
RD/Game0.224

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.218; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Lars NootbaarLF 3812229 0.238 4110.345 55313 00 0.600 0.240 0.344 0.384 OK
Ketel Marte2B 139558139 0.249 22750.315 55110 01 0.200 0.242 0.299 0.376 OK
Gabriel MorenoDH 130473147 0.311 16830.388 54213 11 0.500 0.322 0.398 0.507 OK
Geraldo PerdomoSS 155556145 0.261 9580.368 54110 01 0.250 0.284 0.387 0.399 OK
Corbin CarrollRF 154574138 0.240 22770.330 55210 01 0.400 0.213 0.287 0.397 OK
Nolan Arenado3B 150526134 0.255 30860.332 54100 00 0.250 0.304 0.362 0.597 OK
Pavin Smith1B 3810520 0.190 3120.265 44000 01 0.000 0.212 0.286 0.333 OK
James McCannC 4314240 0.282 5240.309 44000 01 0.000 0.224 0.250 0.379 OK
Tim TawaCF 9430673 0.239 11410.293 43110 11 0.333 0.238 0.297 0.396 OK
TEAM TOTALS 423811 66 27 0.289

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Dustin HarrisRF 248527 0.318 0140.355 44212 01 0.500 0.276 0.324 0.381 OK
Manny Machado3B 157587127 0.216 30900.303 42010 20 0.000 0.220 0.291 0.434 OK
Ty France1B 126436128 0.294 21710.359 44212 01 0.500 0.254 0.307 0.411 OK
Gavin SheetsDH 12236176 0.211 16470.308 44000 01 0.000 0.206 0.283 0.371 OK
Austin HaysLF 235316 0.302 250.302 43010 11 0.000 0.287 0.297 0.415 OK
Jake Cronenworth2B 10737585 0.227 7400.305 44000 02 0.000 0.241 0.294 0.343 OK
Freddy FerminC 7722845 0.197 4210.265 44000 00 0.000 0.152 0.212 0.245 OK
Sung-Mun SongSS 5412825 0.195 1170.278 43000 11 0.000 0.204 0.279 0.260 OK
Jase BowenCF 469314 0.151 270.186 33000 02 0.000 0.072 0.094 0.162 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35314 44 49 0.129

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael SorokaStarter 21109.03.39 1.1109.1110 5.133335100 5.1 5 3
Brandyn GarciaCloser 3626.82.01 0.78412.136 1.10000118 1.1 1 0
Juan MorilloSetup Man 4840.42.90 1.11412.355 1.01111120 1.0 1 1
Jonathan LoáisigaMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4840.83.09 1.2257.132 1.10000217 1.1 2 0

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Randy VásquezStarter 31130.04.15 1.3465.985 5.05111388 5.0 3 1
Mason MillerCloser 6666.51.76 0.94717.5129 1.12331227 1.1 2 3
Adrian MorejonSetup Man 7676.23.19 1.22012.6107 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Bradgley RodriguezMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6664.91.94 1.10911.281 1.23220130 1.2 1 2

Game Summary

ARI wins 6-4


Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins

ATL 94-69 (4.56 RPG / 3.88 RA)
4 - 5
MIA 80-82 (4.41 RPG / 4.4 RA)
WINNER: MIA wins 5-4 TARGET: ATL 4 - 5 MIA (MIA) Confidence: 50.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
ATL10101010047
MIA01002002x510

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.3
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff6
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.7
Avg Allowed4.1
Run Diff-4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

ATL Season Quality

Record94-67
Win%0.584
Run Diff118
RD/Game0.733

MIA Season Quality

Record79-82
Win%0.491
Run Diff1
RD/Game0.006

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.6486; margin adjustment: -0.2724; applied: True

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Mauricio DubónLF 151561155 0.276 11710.322 44000 00 0.000 0.278 0.316 0.375 OK
Ozzie Albies2B 160606146 0.241 22730.297 44211 01 0.500 0.201 0.245 0.308 OK
Matt Olson1B 160617155 0.251 40910.321 44000 01 0.000 0.256 0.314 0.475 OK
Austin Riley3B 157556123 0.221 19720.292 44200 00 0.500 0.208 0.261 0.395 OK
Mike YastrzemskiDH 13135280 0.227 12400.306 44000 02 0.000 0.227 0.303 0.404 OK
Sean MurphyC 3210618 0.170 3100.248 44111 00 0.250 0.149 0.236 0.245 OK
Ha-Seong KimSS 4412715 0.118 090.211 43000 11 0.000 0.131 0.215 0.188 OK
Brewer HicklenRF 12359 0.257 030.366 44111 01 0.250 0.164 0.278 0.333 OK
DaShawn Keirsey Jr.CF 111 1.000 001.000 33111 00 0.333 0.141 0.154 0.233 LARGE
TEAM TOTALS 35347 44 16 0.206

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Griffin ConineRF 8928074 0.264 18410.346 44211 00 0.500 0.273 0.331 0.475 OK
Javier SanojaSS 132457136 0.298 11690.332 44211 00 0.500 0.303 0.338 0.469 OK
Heriberto HernándezLF 127444100 0.225 24660.307 43211 10 0.667 0.209 0.281 0.356 OK
Agustín RamírezDH 6722253 0.239 5240.315 44000 01 0.000 0.260 0.319 0.374 OK
Graham Pauley3B 5213829 0.210 4250.257 44100 02 0.250 0.195 0.239 0.395 OK
Esteury RuizCF 8821045 0.214 6160.300 43000 10 0.000 0.196 0.254 0.326 OK
Deyvison De Los Santos1B 15385 0.132 000.154 44210 01 0.500 0.137 0.147 0.202 OK
Jared Serna2B 12264 0.154 020.207 44112 01 0.250 0.163 0.221 0.252 OK
Brian NavarretoC 23507 0.140 130.200 44000 01 0.000 0.149 0.182 0.269 OK
TEAM TOTALS 363410 55 26 0.294

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
JR RitchieStarter 1665.84.92 1.5059.066 4.26332495 4.2 4 3
Raisel IglesiasCloser 5957.92.64 1.1239.964 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Dylan LeeSetup Man 7058.63.23 1.04111.877 0.22000014 0.2 0 0
Didier FuentesMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5767.32.67 1.18912.291 1.22220127 1.2 1 2

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Janson JunkStarter 25116.24.41 1.3436.584 4.23330368 4.2 3 3
Calvin FaucherCloser 6859.43.79 1.46510.871 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Michael PetersenSetup Man 6457.13.47 1.27812.881 1.02110119 1.0 1 1
Victor VodnikMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 2020.84.76 1.4427.818 1.11000013 1.1 0 0
Josh EknessMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 2826.42.73 1.5537.823 1.01001120 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

MIA wins 5-4


Baltimore Orioles @ New York Yankees

BAL 79-82 (4.46 RPG / 4.59 RA)
5 - 6
NYY 93-68 (4.59 RPG / 3.73 RA)
WINNER: NYY wins 6-5 TARGET: BAL 5 - 6 NYY (NYY) Confidence: 52.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
BAL41000000057
NYY00024000x69

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.4
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff13
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.6
Avg Allowed4.5
Run Diff1
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

BAL Season Quality

Record79-82
Win%0.491
Run Diff-21
RD/Game-0.130

NYY Season Quality

Record93-68
Win%0.578
Run Diff138
RD/Game0.857

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.6441; margin adjustment: 0.2705; applied: True

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Colton CowserCF 12533476 0.228 12370.313 44111 01 0.250 0.240 0.327 0.369 OK
Gunnar HendersonSS 154611138 0.226 23590.311 44000 00 0.000 0.232 0.303 0.418 OK
Jeremiah Jackson2B 8827358 0.212 9380.241 44110 01 0.250 0.198 0.231 0.345 OK
Pete Alonso1B 158591159 0.269 431130.364 44100 00 0.250 0.272 0.357 0.598 OK
Carlos NarváezC 30778 0.104 000.198 44111 02 0.250 0.153 0.212 0.211 OK
Christian Encarnacion-Strand3B 5519151 0.267 10370.311 44112 01 0.250 0.269 0.300 0.493 OK
Leody TaverasCF 13042693 0.218 8560.284 44000 01 0.000 0.222 0.281 0.342 OK
Dylan BeaversLF 9932174 0.231 9430.303 33100 00 0.333 0.209 0.284 0.367 OK
Coby Mayo3B 12540894 0.230 24630.298 33111 01 0.333 0.228 0.293 0.437 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34347 55 07 0.206

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Spencer JonesCF 8225863 0.244 11400.310 54000 11 0.000 0.235 0.294 0.409 OK
George Lombard Jr.SS 4114936 0.242 7220.290 54211 11 0.500 0.247 0.290 0.450 OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B 133463108 0.233 19550.311 43110 12 0.333 0.248 0.328 0.398 OK
Luis García Jr.1B 4215842 0.266 7160.304 44100 02 0.250 0.255 0.294 0.458 OK
Austin WellsC 11933362 0.186 14320.291 44211 01 0.500 0.208 0.328 0.411 OK
Ryan McMahon3B 11132169 0.215 11410.277 43000 02 0.000 0.225 0.284 0.382 OK
Cody BellingerLF 129486129 0.265 17730.339 44112 03 0.250 0.250 0.324 0.417 OK
Heliot RamosLF 3711422 0.193 4120.306 44111 01 0.250 0.252 0.305 0.422 OK
Ben RiceDH 150560149 0.266 40930.368 43111 10 0.333 0.283 0.384 0.544 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38339 66 413 0.273

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Shane BazStarter 31173.64.25 1.3948.0154 5.2966410126 5.2 10 6
Rico GarciaSetup Man 7457.22.99 1.06610.768 1.20000229 1.2 2 0
Yennier CanoMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6639.42.74 1.16810.345 0.2000018 0.2 1 0

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Elmer RodríguezStarter 625.55.65 1.6477.421 4.25550474 4.2 4 5
David BednarCloser 6464.92.63 1.10910.576 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Brent HeadrickSetup Man 8162.72.73 1.51514.198 1.01000016 1.0 0 0
Paul BlackburnMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6275.91.90 1.2258.269 1.11000116 1.1 1 0
Tim HillMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6647.05.17 1.3404.825 1.00000213 1.0 2 0

Game Summary

NYY wins 6-5


Chicago Cubs @ Boston Red Sox

CHC 89-73 (5.25 RPG / 4.34 RA)
4 - 3
BOS 87-75 (4.25 RPG / 3.77 RA)
WINNER: CHC wins 4-3 TARGET: CHC 4 - 3 BOS (CHC) Confidence: 50.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
CHC00022000048
BOS00100011035

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.8
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff1
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs2.2
Avg Allowed2.6
Run Diff-4
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak2W

CHC Season Quality

Record88-73
Win%0.547
Run Diff143
RD/Game0.888

BOS Season Quality

Record87-74
Win%0.540
Run Diff82
RD/Game0.509

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.2607; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF 159617173 0.280 451070.373 54000 11 0.000 0.224 0.306 0.427 OK
Alex BregmanDH 153600157 0.262 26890.352 55100 01 0.200 0.258 0.340 0.471 OK
Michael Busch1B 157590144 0.244 19750.354 54000 10 0.000 0.280 0.371 0.407 OK
Ian HappLF 149534118 0.221 24680.325 44000 02 0.000 0.219 0.306 0.403 OK
Michael ConfortoRF 10726663 0.237 15430.320 44211 01 0.500 0.225 0.301 0.445 OK
Nico Hoerner2B 156620164 0.265 8720.316 44111 00 0.250 0.245 0.287 0.309 OK
Pedro Ramirez3B 7523461 0.261 6320.316 44111 01 0.250 0.258 0.312 0.389 OK
Dansby SwansonSS 12141789 0.213 17620.298 43211 10 0.667 0.214 0.293 0.381 OK
Miguel AmayaC 7021149 0.232 6280.324 43100 10 0.333 0.210 0.270 0.366 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39358 44 46 0.229

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Roman AnthonyLF 5421052 0.248 5150.342 44000 01 0.000 0.275 0.356 0.452 OK
Adley RutschmanC 3111525 0.217 4120.268 43112 10 0.333 0.262 0.311 0.404 OK
Willson ContrerasDH 125437121 0.277 27810.389 43000 11 0.000 0.268 0.353 0.500 OK
Wilyer AbreuRF 153581146 0.251 23750.330 43000 10 0.000 0.215 0.283 0.368 OK
Ceddanne RafaelaCF 132525148 0.282 15670.319 44111 01 0.250 0.267 0.295 0.376 OK
Nick Sogard2B 6323258 0.250 5180.337 43000 11 0.000 0.255 0.326 0.364 OK
Caleb Durbin3B 146493119 0.241 13610.325 44100 00 0.250 0.208 0.281 0.307 OK
Trevor StorySS 6324959 0.237 5290.270 44000 01 0.000 0.207 0.243 0.341 OK
Andruw Monasterio1B 10030672 0.235 6400.294 44210 00 0.500 0.216 0.270 0.335 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36325 33 45 0.156

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Shota ImanagaStarter 31170.33.81 1.1169.0171 5.22113594 5.2 5 1
Jacob WebbCloser 6759.03.81 1.42411.072 1.01110016 1.0 0 1
Ryan ZeferjahnSetup Man 2014.55.59 1.86211.819 1.12111027 1.1 0 1
Daniel PalenciaMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 3127.13.65 1.21810.030 1.00000013 1.0 0 0

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Tanner HouckStarter 000.00 0.0000.00 1.08444353 1.0 3 4
Aroldis ChapmanCloser 5251.21.41 1.05512.571 3.20000057 3.2 0 0
Erik MillerSetup Man 1918.23.46 1.42914.329 1.10000117 1.1 1 0
Garrett WhitlockMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5450.71.78 0.92710.559 1.20000121 1.2 1 0
Greg WeissertMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6251.13.70 1.40910.660 1.10000117 1.1 1 0

Game Summary

CHC wins 4-3


Cincinnati Reds @ Toronto Blue Jays

CIN 75-87 (4.11 RPG / 5.1 RA)
4 - 5
TOR 79-83 (4.0 RPG / 4.28 RA)
WINNER: TOR wins 5-4 TARGET: CIN 4 - 5 TOR (TOR) Confidence: 51.2% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
CIN00004000046
TOR01000200258

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed4.4
Run Diff-4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs3.0
Avg Allowed4.8
Run Diff-18
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

CIN Season Quality

Record75-86
Win%0.466
Run Diff-156
RD/Game-0.969

TOR Season Quality

Record78-83
Win%0.484
Run Diff-50
RD/Game-0.311

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.3033; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carlos JorgeCF 15428 0.190 110.261 44110 02 0.250 0.229 0.293 0.372 OK
Elly De La CruzDH 139542155 0.286 30790.370 43000 11 0.000 0.273 0.367 0.524 OK
Sal Stewart1B 158608161 0.265 311080.331 44211 00 0.500 0.235 0.294 0.370 OK
JJ BledayLF 12845399 0.219 24580.325 44113 02 0.250 0.203 0.298 0.399 OK
Juan Brito3B 155117 0.333 3110.364 43000 10 0.000 0.257 0.302 0.407 OK
Héctor RodríguezRF 4014033 0.236 6170.277 44000 01 0.000 0.241 0.273 0.437 OK
Matt McLain2B 12743281 0.188 15400.274 43110 10 0.333 0.195 0.264 0.322 OK
Will BanfieldC 8173 0.176 010.167 44000 01 0.000 0.153 0.164 0.258 OK
Oswaldo CabreraSS 3112 0.182 000.182 44100 01 0.250 0.127 0.137 0.197 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36336 44 38 0.182

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
George SpringerDH 122460114 0.248 15530.321 55111 01 0.200 0.215 0.274 0.338 OK
Brett BatemanRF 4015450 0.325 2110.400 42110 10 0.500 0.316 0.396 0.419 OK
Kazuma Okamoto3B 154566132 0.233 33920.310 44112 01 0.250 0.208 0.284 0.368 OK
Charles McAdoo1B 339424 0.255 2120.304 44000 03 0.000 0.261 0.313 0.375 OK
Davis SchneiderLF 5712118 0.149 5150.297 44000 03 0.000 0.152 0.311 0.396 OK
Brandon ValenzuelaC 7723753 0.224 8220.307 44100 02 0.250 0.151 0.241 0.242 OK
Myles StrawCF 12229271 0.243 3250.299 43100 10 0.333 0.289 0.340 0.377 OK
Andrés GiménezSS 140466114 0.245 9580.291 44111 01 0.250 0.245 0.273 0.351 OK
Ernie Clement2B 156587153 0.261 9470.287 44211 01 0.500 0.188 0.215 0.279 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37348 55 212 0.235

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Brandon WilliamsonStarter 1147.85.08 1.4646.233 4.13111580 4.1 5 1
Emilio PagánCloser 4441.53.47 1.0609.845 1.01221222 1.0 2 2
Luis MeySetup Man 2831.16.95 1.83313.948 0.21000011 0.2 0 0
Brock BurkeMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 7765.02.63 1.44610.274 1.00000325 1.0 3 0
Tejay AntoneMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5748.03.00 1.18810.757 1.23220222 1.0 2 2

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Max ScherzerStarter 1775.86.29 1.3987.261 5.06442493 5.0 4 4
Louis VarlandCloser 7172.41.37 1.07712.197 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Tyler RogersSetup Man 7466.11.91 1.2565.440 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Spencer MilesMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4988.92.83 1.1819.493 1.10001221 1.1 2 0
Mason FluhartyMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 8046.53.87 1.57012.665 0.2000008 0.2 0 0

Game Summary

TOR wins 5-4


Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals

CLE 85-77 (4.19 RPG / 4.12 RA)
6 - 4
KC 69-93 (4.26 RPG / 5.0 RA)
WINNER: CLE wins 6-4 TARGET: CLE 6 - 4 KC (CLE) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
CLE00002130068
KC00100030045

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.900
Avg Runs5.8
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff23
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak3W

KC Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs5.1
Avg Allowed7.6
Run Diff-25
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak3L

CLE Season Quality

Record85-76
Win%0.528
Run Diff12
RD/Game0.075

KC Season Quality

Record68-93
Win%0.422
Run Diff-121
RD/Game-0.752

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.0963; margin adjustment: -0.4604; applied: True

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Angel MartínezLF 10638599 0.257 18620.293 55000 02 0.000 0.273 0.296 0.499 OK
Travis Bazzana2B 120436106 0.243 15550.333 54112 10 0.250 0.269 0.336 0.437 OK
Jo AdellRF 4617441 0.236 6300.316 55112 01 0.200 0.227 0.275 0.355 OK
Nathaniel Lowe1B 3812528 0.224 5260.273 54111 10 0.250 0.254 0.310 0.407 OK
David FryC 8017835 0.197 8200.292 43000 11 0.000 0.209 0.287 0.391 OK
Angel GenaoSS 3511924 0.202 260.258 44111 01 0.250 0.192 0.246 0.266 OK
Austin HedgesDH 7321353 0.249 6250.328 43110 10 0.333 0.251 0.343 0.405 OK
Daniel Schneemann3B 8525853 0.205 6290.273 43100 10 0.333 0.208 0.271 0.308 OK
Petey HalpinCF 6317037 0.218 4130.256 44210 01 0.500 0.175 0.207 0.271 OK
TEAM TOTALS 40358 66 56 0.229

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Maikel Garcia3B 7930482 0.270 3380.329 44000 01 0.000 0.263 0.333 0.368 OK
Bobby Witt Jr.SS 141551156 0.283 18530.360 43110 11 0.333 0.288 0.352 0.422 OK
Jac CaglianoneRF 141505144 0.285 23750.336 43110 11 0.333 0.304 0.341 0.461 OK
Salvador PerezDH 150573132 0.230 21770.275 44000 01 0.000 0.224 0.259 0.422 OK
Vinnie Pasquantino1B 112412102 0.248 15610.333 44000 01 0.000 0.252 0.323 0.441 OK
Isaac CollinsLF 14143592 0.211 6400.319 44110 02 0.250 0.153 0.256 0.244 OK
Tyler Tolbert2B 5412637 0.294 380.357 44214 00 0.500 0.269 0.326 0.367 OK
Kyle IsbelCF 9428863 0.219 6240.263 33000 01 0.000 0.224 0.256 0.292 OK
Luke MaileC 15417 0.171 150.244 33000 00 0.000 0.098 0.179 0.192 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34325 44 28 0.156

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Parker MessickStarter 31176.82.65 1.0809.7191 6.14331896 6.1 8 3
Cade SmithCloser 6969.12.08 1.02713.9107 1.20001025 1.2 0 0
Hunter GaddisSetup Man 6751.03.35 1.43110.157 1.01110016 1.0 0 1

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Daniel Lynch IVStarter 5574.64.46 1.2336.554 5.13113588 5.1 5 1
Nate PearsonCloser 2523.74.94 1.4359.525 1.01110016 1.0 0 1
Alex LangeSetup Man 5955.87.26 1.7569.760 1.04332022 1.0 0 3
Connor ThomasMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1615.22.96 1.3167.713 1.00110113 1.0 1 1
Anthony GoseMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1410.40.87 1.2506.17 0.2000008 0.2 0 0

Game Summary

CLE wins 6-4


Colorado Rockies @ Chicago White Sox

COL 58-104 (4.64 RPG / 5.83 RA)
5 - 8
CHW 84-78 (4.79 RPG / 4.44 RA)
WINNER: CHW wins 8-5 TARGET: COL 5 - 8 CHW (CHW) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
COL12000000259
CHW00024010189

COL Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs3.8
Avg Allowed6.4
Run Diff-26
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs6.4
Avg Allowed4.7
Run Diff17
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

COL Season Quality

Record58-103
Win%0.360
Run Diff-190
RD/Game-1.180

CHW Season Quality

Record83-78
Win%0.516
Run Diff54
RD/Game0.335

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.4935; margin adjustment: 0.6273; applied: True

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jake McCarthyLF 140544159 0.292 15820.334 55110 03 0.200 0.248 0.279 0.380 OK
Connor NorbyDH 3912738 0.299 3170.384 55100 00 0.200 0.236 0.317 0.364 OK
Hunter GoodmanC 137515127 0.247 41880.311 44111 01 0.250 0.250 0.295 0.550 OK
Cole CarriggCF 8932992 0.280 11520.342 44100 00 0.250 0.288 0.334 0.471 OK
Kyle Karros3B 126403103 0.256 13490.351 43110 11 0.333 0.197 0.290 0.362 OK
Adael Amador2B 258022 0.275 4160.348 44100 01 0.250 0.249 0.313 0.396 OK
Troy Johnston1B 122389109 0.280 4490.345 43112 11 0.333 0.255 0.304 0.368 OK
Jordan BeckRF 6016232 0.198 1110.256 44100 00 0.250 0.196 0.252 0.289 OK
Ezequiel TovarSS 140458101 0.221 13440.266 44112 00 0.250 0.231 0.271 0.435 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38369 55 27 0.250

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Randal GrichukLF 9923169 0.299 14420.328 55113 03 0.200 0.303 0.334 0.575 OK
Tommy PhamDH 7133 0.231 130.412 54010 11 0.000 0.151 0.266 0.277 OK
Munetaka Murakami1B 12645093 0.207 35770.348 55313 01 0.600 0.232 0.356 0.547 OK
Brenton DoyleCF 328923 0.258 490.258 43110 01 0.333 0.268 0.304 0.462 OK
Sam Antonacci2B 135464125 0.269 8480.364 43010 12 0.000 0.285 0.336 0.403 OK
Braden MontgomeryRF 9131972 0.226 6380.313 44000 00 0.000 0.270 0.337 0.392 OK
Colson Montgomery3B 152564112 0.199 31870.284 43110 11 0.333 0.185 0.250 0.368 OK
Luisangel AcuñaSS 7920546 0.224 1120.261 43110 10 0.333 0.108 0.153 0.145 OK
Drew RomoC 5717725 0.141 7160.235 44212 00 0.500 0.154 0.254 0.269 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39349 88 49 0.265

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kyle FreelandStarter 25127.66.77 1.5607.5106 4.16661789 4.1 7 5
Jordan RomanoCloser 2724.54.41 1.2659.927 1.00001021 1.0 0 0
Brennan BernardinoSetup Man 7352.82.90 1.3268.449 1.01112136 1.0 1 1
Jimmy HergetMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5046.96.52 1.7069.047 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Jaden HillMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4431.25.19 1.69911.038 1.01110011 0.2 0 1

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Anthony KayStarter 32148.14.68 1.4187.6125 4.25331485 4.2 4 3
Grant TaylorCloser 4151.92.60 1.11813.276 1.10000117 1.1 1 0
Sean NewcombSetup Man 5373.63.18 1.2779.578 1.10000017 1.1 0 0
Bryan HudsonMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6657.42.98 1.3249.359 1.01000216 1.0 2 0
Jordan HicksMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4233.74.54 1.78013.149 0.23221021 0.2 0 2

Game Summary

CHW wins 8-5


Houston Astros @ Oakland Athletics

HOU 81-81 (4.53 RPG / 4.73 RA)
8 - 6
OAK 64-98 (4.31 RPG / 5.78 RA)
WINNER: HOU wins 8-6 TARGET: HOU 8 - 6 OAK (HOU) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
HOU13400000088
OAK400000002611

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs5.2
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff10
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs4.2
Avg Allowed6.7
Run Diff-25
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

HOU Season Quality

Record80-81
Win%0.497
Run Diff-41
RD/Game-0.255

OAK Season Quality

Record64-97
Win%0.398
Run Diff-229
RD/Game-1.422

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.0519; margin adjustment: -0.4418; applied: True

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jeremy PeñaSS 109442122 0.276 22550.325 54314 10 0.750 0.299 0.324 0.548 OK
Yordan AlvarezDH 156559178 0.318 421050.435 55010 00 0.000 0.332 0.428 0.639 OK
Isaac Paredes3B 153555144 0.259 25940.358 54010 12 0.000 0.292 0.366 0.582 OK
Jose Altuve2B 133519130 0.250 16490.306 43210 10 0.667 0.265 0.310 0.382 OK
Yainer DiazC 9133595 0.284 14430.312 44010 01 0.000 0.315 0.333 0.496 OK
Christian Walker1B 153564127 0.225 28860.297 43000 02 0.000 0.232 0.288 0.482 OK
Lucas SpenceCF 165311 0.208 4100.276 44114 01 0.250 0.227 0.280 0.517 OK
Cam SmithRF 147506105 0.208 21540.275 44110 01 0.250 0.188 0.262 0.372 OK
Taylor TrammellLF 8925249 0.194 8220.280 44110 02 0.250 0.155 0.244 0.310 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39358 88 39 0.229

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Henry BolteCF 114411115 0.280 11380.359 55310 01 0.600 0.290 0.350 0.433 OK
Lawrence ButlerRF 146468110 0.235 17620.321 54000 11 0.000 0.261 0.328 0.407 OK
Shea LangeliersDH 105422110 0.261 23580.325 55311 00 0.600 0.251 0.305 0.438 OK
Zack Gelof3B 106390101 0.259 22550.325 54111 01 0.250 0.280 0.326 0.540 OK
Jeff McNeil1B 141474126 0.266 9590.312 53213 21 0.667 0.260 0.312 0.382 OK
Donovan Walton2B 5513731 0.226 6200.365 54000 13 0.000 0.212 0.296 0.399 OK
Joshua Kuroda-GrauerSS 206725 0.373 140.400 55111 02 0.200 0.149 0.181 0.299 OK
Carlos CortesLF 12034186 0.252 10430.317 44110 00 0.250 0.242 0.302 0.416 OK
Brian ServenC 247814 0.179 5140.220 44000 01 0.000 0.150 0.186 0.272 OK
TEAM TOTALS 433811 66 410 0.289

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Peter LambertStarter 28149.03.99 1.2959.2153 5.174436107 5.1 6 4
Josh HaderCloser 4443.50.83 0.71311.455 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Logan VanWeySetup Man 911.21.61 0.9827.29 1.10000217 1.1 2 0
Bryan AbreuMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6555.94.19 1.48512.980 1.01001020 1.0 0 0
AJ BlubaughMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6489.73.91 1.3159.494 0.13220113 0.1 1 2

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Seth JohnsonStarter 1014.54.97 1.44811.218 4.08881590 4.0 5 7
Elvis AlvaradoCloser 5447.74.34 1.42611.762 1.00001117 1.0 1 0
Hogan HarrisSetup Man 7458.93.97 1.73213.488 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Luis MedinaMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5866.73.10 1.43912.593 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Scott BlewettMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 2429.83.32 1.5449.732 1.10001023 1.1 0 0
Brady BassoMiddle Reliever 2538.55.84 1.7407.030 0.20000111 0.2 1 0

Game Summary

HOU wins 8-6


Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners

LAA 62-100 (4.04 RPG / 4.64 RA)
3 - 5
SEA 76-86 (4.1 RPG / 4.46 RA)
WINNER: SEA wins 5-3 TARGET: LAA 3 - 5 SEA (SEA) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
LAA00000012039
SEA20000210x58

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.0
Avg Allowed6.0
Run Diff-20
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.1
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff-2
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

LAA Season Quality

Record62-99
Win%0.385
Run Diff-93
RD/Game-0.578

SEA Season Quality

Record75-86
Win%0.466
Run Diff-62
RD/Game-0.385

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.3159; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Zach NetoDH 156616148 0.240 27770.329 55100 01 0.200 0.243 0.339 0.441 OK
Wade MecklerLF 9129890 0.302 3270.372 44100 02 0.250 0.311 0.373 0.404 OK
Vaughn Grissom1B 115419102 0.243 13700.308 44100 00 0.250 0.251 0.298 0.395 OK
Moisés BallesterosC 4415832 0.203 3120.260 44112 01 0.250 0.204 0.269 0.302 OK
Denzer Guzman3B 7827961 0.219 8330.266 44000 03 0.000 0.215 0.266 0.332 OK
Josh LoweRF 10630764 0.208 12290.271 43000 02 0.000 0.205 0.253 0.354 OK
Oswald PerazaSS 10833776 0.226 7250.278 44310 00 0.750 0.228 0.259 0.322 OK
Christian Moore2B 3713125 0.191 2180.252 44211 01 0.500 0.246 0.300 0.389 OK
Bryce TeodosioCF 256613 0.197 060.243 44000 01 0.000 0.195 0.242 0.237 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37369 33 011 0.250

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
J.P. CrawfordSS 11440990 0.220 14400.335 44210 02 0.500 0.220 0.305 0.366 OK
Randy ArozarenaLF 153569160 0.281 26770.380 44314 00 0.750 0.283 0.358 0.449 OK
Dominic CanzoneRF 143473125 0.264 23770.333 44000 00 0.000 0.278 0.345 0.495 OK
Cal RaleighDH 12444679 0.177 23680.292 44210 00 0.500 0.162 0.289 0.337 OK
Julio RodríguezCF 148591147 0.249 22710.309 44000 02 0.000 0.266 0.311 0.420 OK
Josh Naylor1B 151593155 0.261 10560.318 44111 02 0.250 0.177 0.236 0.238 OK
Cole Young2B 158575141 0.245 17660.310 32010 11 0.000 0.249 0.309 0.347 OK
Jhonny PeredaC 298725 0.287 280.351 33000 00 0.000 0.286 0.355 0.372 OK
Weston Wilson3B 4412124 0.198 3100.271 33000 02 0.000 0.118 0.204 0.178 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33328 55 19 0.250

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Yusei KikuchiStarter 1361.54.98 1.5778.860 5.06441893 5.0 8 4
Mitch FarrisCloser 3357.24.25 1.5569.963 2.02110031 2.0 0 1
Ryan WatsonSetup Man 1814.02.57 1.28614.122 1.00000113 1.0 1 0

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Logan GilbertStarter 31177.83.90 1.13010.0197 5.240001095 5.2 10 0
José A. FerrerCloser 7254.44.96 1.7288.954 1.12110027 1.1 0 1
Eduard BazardoSetup Man 7155.64.53 1.69110.867 1.02220119 1.0 1 2
Gabe SpeierMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5439.03.46 1.28210.445 1.01000016 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

SEA wins 5-3


Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants

LAD 100-62 (4.94 RPG / 3.7 RA)
6 - 3
SF 66-97 (4.15 RPG / 4.67 RA)
WINNER: LAD wins 6-3 TARGET: LAD 6 - 3 SF (LAD) Confidence: 58.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
LAD00000130268
SF02100000035

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs4.7
Avg Allowed2.7
Run Diff20
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak2W

SF Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs3.5
Avg Allowed4.4
Run Diff-9
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak4L

LAD Season Quality

Record99-62
Win%0.615
Run Diff197
RD/Game1.224

SF Season Quality

Record65-96
Win%0.404
Run Diff-87
RD/Game-0.540

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.6311; margin adjustment: -2.6098; applied: True

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Shohei OhtaniDH 133515141 0.274 30790.377 44010 01 0.000 0.268 0.364 0.477 OK
Mookie BettsSS 120473123 0.260 23690.325 44211 02 0.500 0.271 0.336 0.485 OK
Freddie Freeman1B 151572166 0.290 16680.365 44000 02 0.000 0.287 0.347 0.387 OK
Kyle TuckerRF 149530124 0.234 17700.327 44110 01 0.250 0.259 0.340 0.408 OK
Teoscar HernándezLF 122435117 0.269 16630.335 44212 01 0.500 0.281 0.334 0.444 OK
Max Muncy3B 146481119 0.247 29760.341 43212 10 0.667 0.225 0.296 0.414 OK
Andy PagesCF 131504138 0.274 22800.342 44111 00 0.250 0.290 0.353 0.485 OK
Hunter FeducciaC 287215 0.208 170.321 44000 02 0.000 0.132 0.237 0.205 OK
Tommy Edman2B 7928468 0.239 8400.318 44000 00 0.000 0.235 0.282 0.406 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36358 66 19 0.229

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jonah Cox2B 5014638 0.260 4160.308 43000 11 0.000 0.229 0.282 0.356 OK
Bo DavidsonRF 5166 0.375 010.389 44111 03 0.250 0.332 0.371 0.360 OK
Victor BericotoDH 3711026 0.236 5150.257 44210 00 0.500 0.216 0.242 0.380 OK
Marcelo Mayer3B 4110 0.000 000.154 44000 02 0.000 0.180 0.243 0.263
Shay Whitcomb1B 268720 0.230 280.239 43000 10 0.000 0.213 0.228 0.328 OK
Drew CavanaughC 5413733 0.241 1120.320 43000 10 0.000 0.158 0.236 0.264 OK
Scott BanduraLF 11265 0.192 000.222 44100 01 0.250 0.177 0.209 0.272 OK
Christian KossSS 6419644 0.224 4120.262 44112 00 0.250 0.185 0.216 0.259 OK
Drew GilbertCF 12033081 0.245 11430.313 33000 01 0.000 0.182 0.239 0.344 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35325 33 38 0.156

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jack DreyerStarter 6653.13.73 1.29912.071 5.03112784 5.0 7 1
Tanner ScottCloser 6958.32.93 1.08112.782 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Brock StewartSetup Man 2724.12.61 1.0799.325 2.00000125 2.0 1 0
Alex VesiaMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 7146.53.29 1.33314.173 1.02221023 1.0 0 2

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Carson SeymourStarter 2427.45.26 1.7157.222 4.06441676 4.0 6 4
Dylan SmithCloser 4134.04.50 1.64711.644 3.00000338 3.0 3 0
Trent HarrisSetup Man 2120.72.61 1.20811.727 2.02220031 2.0 0 2

Game Summary

LAD wins 6-3


New York Mets @ Washington Nationals

NYM 74-88 (4.31 RPG / 4.51 RA)
7 - 5
WAS 77-85 (5.07 RPG / 5.03 RA)
WINNER: NYM wins 7-5 TARGET: NYM 7 - 5 WAS (NYM) Confidence: 53.1% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
NYM401000200713
WAS00230000x57

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.6
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff7
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.3
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff1
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

NYM Season Quality

Record74-87
Win%0.460
Run Diff-30
RD/Game-0.186

WAS Season Quality

Record76-85
Win%0.472
Run Diff4
RD/Game0.025

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.155; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Francisco LindorSS 10241292 0.223 20480.304 55213 01 0.400 0.201 0.265 0.333 OK
Juan SotoLF 108392110 0.281 27680.396 55310 01 0.600 0.313 0.413 0.517 OK
Bo Bichette3B 155622163 0.262 18780.313 53110 10 0.333 0.242 0.297 0.381 OK
Carson BengeRF 151581161 0.277 20630.342 55311 01 0.600 0.295 0.355 0.463 OK
Marcus Semien2B 135480105 0.219 15490.286 55212 01 0.400 0.185 0.247 0.305 OK
Brett Baty1B 13441199 0.241 11560.309 54211 12 0.500 0.262 0.332 0.421 OK
Luis TorrensC 8324960 0.241 9410.296 55010 03 0.000 0.216 0.256 0.356 OK
A.J. EwingCF 118429110 0.256 11430.327 44000 02 0.000 0.250 0.324 0.379 OK
Ronny MauricioDH 195611 0.196 360.224 44000 00 0.000 0.205 0.227 0.401 OK
TEAM TOTALS 434013 77 211 0.325

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
James WoodDH 134510136 0.267 30770.389 43010 11 0.000 0.274 0.385 0.477 OK
Andrés Chaparro1B 7519450 0.258 11370.342 44211 01 0.500 0.270 0.338 0.467 OK
Brady House3B 9131778 0.246 10450.307 43214 00 0.667 0.279 0.336 0.410 OK
CJ Abrams2B 151575150 0.261 331050.337 44000 02 0.000 0.263 0.334 0.517 OK
Dylan CrewsRF 10640089 0.222 13440.289 44000 02 0.000 0.219 0.276 0.384 OK
Jacob YoungCF 126417105 0.252 10460.310 44210 01 0.500 0.280 0.323 0.404 OK
Daylen LileLF 159598148 0.247 22890.298 44110 01 0.250 0.222 0.264 0.384 OK
Harry FordC 339718 0.186 3100.301 33000 01 0.000 0.188 0.296 0.315 OK
Nasim NuñezSS 13542789 0.208 1360.292 32000 10 0.000 0.201 0.287 0.232 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34317 55 29 0.226

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Sean ManaeaStarter 32140.04.82 1.3439.1141 5.274426100 5.2 6 4
Kodai SengaCloser 3158.37.72 1.73211.675 1.00110113 1.0 1 1
Nathan LavenderSetup Man 2117.02.12 0.94113.826 0.20000013 1.0 0 0
Jonathan PintaroMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 2228.15.77 1.4959.630 0.1000016 1.0 1 0
Devin WilliamsMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4338.14.25 1.57512.352 0.1000014 0.1 1 0

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
DJ HerzStarter 14.09.00 1.7509.04 3.27551683 3.2 6 4
Erik TolmanCloser 1411.93.78 1.68111.315 1.02000019 1.0 0 0
Brad LordSetup Man 4075.44.18 1.3539.277 1.10000123 1.1 1 0
Yovanny CruzMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 138.18.89 2.59310.09 1.02220319 1.0 3 2
Will DionMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1425.23.57 1.19010.028 1.10000117 1.1 1 0
Jack SinclairMiddle Reliever 108.73.10 1.1497.27 0.22001018 0.2 0 0

Game Summary

NYM wins 7-5


Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers

PIT 82-80 (4.73 RPG / 4.56 RA)
4 - 3
DET 76-86 (4.46 RPG / 4.02 RA)
WINNER: PIT wins 4-3 TARGET: PIT 4 - 3 DET (PIT) Confidence: 50.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
PIT00100021048
DET00001010137

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.4
Avg Allowed4.0
Run Diff4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

DET Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.9
Avg Allowed4.6
Run Diff-7
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

PIT Season Quality

Record81-80
Win%0.503
Run Diff26
RD/Game0.161

DET Season Quality

Record76-85
Win%0.472
Run Diff73
RD/Game0.453

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.0363; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Konnor GriffinSS 7830883 0.269 5310.322 43000 12 0.000 0.274 0.309 0.392 OK
Ryan O'HearnDH 104394108 0.274 18750.336 44111 00 0.250 0.280 0.337 0.444 OK
Bryan ReynoldsLF 157582153 0.263 17720.367 44000 01 0.000 0.245 0.332 0.395 OK
Rafael Flores Jr.C 4314439 0.271 11250.335 44111 03 0.250 0.265 0.328 0.560 OK
Spencer Horwitz1B 11338294 0.246 10490.345 44100 03 0.250 0.232 0.325 0.342 OK
Nick Gonzales2B 142536160 0.299 4590.362 44111 01 0.250 0.289 0.344 0.364 OK
Jake MangumRF 121424117 0.276 5320.328 44100 00 0.250 0.249 0.290 0.335 OK
Jacob Gonzalez3B 4511222 0.196 3100.222 44311 01 0.750 0.220 0.264 0.358 OK
Billy CookCF 27529 0.173 020.189 44000 01 0.000 0.088 0.116 0.174 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36358 44 112 0.229

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Max ClarkCF 4917246 0.267 3210.349 44000 01 0.000 0.259 0.314 0.365 OK
Hao-Yu Lee2B 10632287 0.270 10460.328 43000 11 0.000 0.308 0.366 0.464 OK
Kevin McGonigle3B 153593164 0.277 17710.376 44100 02 0.250 0.276 0.371 0.416 OK
Riley GreeneDH 137503143 0.284 21750.374 44000 01 0.000 0.271 0.369 0.456 OK
Eduardo ValenciaC 4012543 0.344 7200.383 43000 00 0.000 0.329 0.365 0.637 OK
Brett CallahanLF 296915 0.217 180.276 44210 00 0.500 0.196 0.252 0.321 OK
Spencer Torkelson1B 155520118 0.227 25750.323 44111 01 0.250 0.224 0.317 0.481 OK
Zach McKinstryRF 12036574 0.203 4260.285 44312 00 0.750 0.110 0.201 0.191 OK
John PeckSS 196511 0.169 070.286 44000 01 0.000 0.164 0.261 0.215 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36347 33 17 0.206

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jared JonesStarter 2096.53.92 1.13011.0118 5.23111787 5.2 7 1
Mason MontgomeryCloser 6859.53.03 1.16015.6103 1.02110019 1.0 0 1
Luke WeaverSetup Man 1814.75.51 1.49712.220 1.10000017 1.1 0 0
Gregory SotoMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6860.73.56 1.21911.779 1.02110019 1.0 0 1

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
River RyanStarter 13.00.00 1.0009.03 3.03111863 3.0 8 1
Kenley JansenCloser 4941.53.04 1.08411.151 2.03220134 2.0 1 2
Tyler HoltonSetup Man 6760.83.26 1.4808.155 2.01110128 2.0 1 1
Drew SommersMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4230.83.80 1.42918.162 2.01000233 2.0 2 0

Game Summary

PIT wins 4-3


St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers

STL 77-85 (4.44 RPG / 4.62 RA)
2 - 5
MIL 103-59 (5.14 RPG / 3.81 RA)
WINNER: MIL wins 5-2 TARGET: STL 2 - 5 MIL (MIL) Confidence: 58.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
STL00000200023
MIL11020001x59

STL Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs3.1
Avg Allowed5.2
Run Diff-21
Off Trendcold
Def Trendweak
Streak3L

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs4.3
Avg Allowed3.0
Run Diff13
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak4W

STL Season Quality

Record77-84
Win%0.478
Run Diff-27
RD/Game-0.168

MIL Season Quality

Record102-59
Win%0.634
Run Diff212
RD/Game1.317

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.4859; margin adjustment: 0.6241; applied: True

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jordan WalkerRF 154592160 0.270 27960.329 44100 01 0.250 0.209 0.264 0.370 OK
Iván HerreraDH 156593142 0.239 18670.347 44111 01 0.250 0.182 0.248 0.340 OK
Leonardo Bernal1B 239326 0.280 4180.316 44000 01 0.000 0.252 0.287 0.394 OK
Nolan Gorman3B 8225849 0.190 9330.274 44000 03 0.000 0.191 0.292 0.281 OK
Thomas SaggeseSS 5015837 0.234 4140.295 33000 00 0.000 0.186 0.244 0.283 OK
Nathan ChurchCF 128426107 0.251 10490.294 33000 00 0.000 0.219 0.254 0.319 OK
José FermínLF 11231781 0.256 6410.315 32000 00 0.000 0.172 0.236 0.258 OK
César Prieto2B 14341 0.029 000.029 33111 00 0.333 0.065 0.076 0.091 OK
Pedro PagésC 6418640 0.215 4120.264 33000 00 0.000 0.187 0.237 0.258 OK
TEAM TOTALS 31303 22 06 0.100

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Garrett MitchellCF 136447115 0.257 10580.344 55211 01 0.400 0.184 0.269 0.307 OK
Jake Bauers1B 137464123 0.265 25840.386 54000 10 0.000 0.259 0.371 0.443 OK
Jackson ChourioLF 124512149 0.291 25730.352 54000 10 0.000 0.315 0.379 0.508 OK
Brice Turang2B 146567156 0.275 211000.370 42111 10 0.500 0.304 0.393 0.571 OK
Gary SánchezC 8222146 0.208 11360.346 44111 01 0.250 0.212 0.339 0.355 OK
Christian YelichDH 11342397 0.229 12560.312 44000 01 0.000 0.159 0.253 0.285 OK
Cooper PrattSS 6921861 0.280 3330.347 43100 10 0.333 0.299 0.374 0.372 OK
Sal FrelickRF 10532977 0.234 4380.296 43210 10 0.667 0.204 0.278 0.284 OK
David Hamilton3B 11133481 0.243 4260.307 43212 10 0.667 0.240 0.298 0.336 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39329 55 63 0.281

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Andre PallanteStarter 28154.23.68 1.2656.2106 5.164452115 5.1 2 4
Riley O'BrienCloser 6661.24.26 1.3409.464 1.01001020 1.0 0 0
Ryne StanekMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6953.84.52 1.52410.965 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Justin BruihlMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 7062.64.46 1.6137.653 0.21110011 0.2 0 1

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jacob MisiorowskiStarter 29168.41.87 0.80813.2247 6.02220682 6.0 6 2
Trevor MegillCloser 6260.52.08 0.87610.369 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Abner UribeSetup Man 6154.92.13 1.11110.262 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Aaron AshbyMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 7582.13.40 1.42512.7116 1.01000011 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

MIL wins 5-2


Tampa Bay Rays @ Philadelphia Phillies

TB 98-64 (4.54 RPG / 4.01 RA)
4 - 3
PHI 88-74 (4.4 RPG / 4.31 RA)
WINNER: TB wins 4-3 TARGET: TB 4 - 3 PHI (TB) Confidence: 57.6% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
TB00000300144
PHI10010100039

TB Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.5
Avg Allowed2.6
Run Diff19
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak2W

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs2.8
Avg Allowed4.5
Run Diff-17
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak4L

TB Season Quality

Record98-63
Win%0.609
Run Diff90
RD/Game0.559

PHI Season Quality

Record87-74
Win%0.540
Run Diff11
RD/Game0.068

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.6306; margin adjustment: -0.2649; applied: True

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Victor Mesa Jr.LF 7023160 0.260 14330.323 44111 00 0.250 0.275 0.338 0.516 OK
Jonathan Aranda1B 153575158 0.275 22920.358 43000 11 0.000 0.237 0.314 0.406 OK
Junior Caminero3B 160610169 0.277 421010.362 44111 00 0.250 0.287 0.361 0.517 OK
Liam HicksDH 4012134 0.281 4200.376 43112 11 0.333 0.275 0.353 0.401 OK
Richie Palacios2B 11734181 0.238 10570.333 44000 01 0.000 0.271 0.357 0.395 OK
Jonny DeLucaRF 10234291 0.266 9480.301 44000 00 0.000 0.263 0.303 0.383 OK
Cedric MullinsCF 13243589 0.205 15480.284 33000 00 0.000 0.217 0.278 0.349 OK
Nick FortesC 9929277 0.264 6350.308 33000 00 0.000 0.259 0.295 0.443 OK
Jorge MateoSS 267510 0.133 170.175 33110 00 0.333 0.104 0.141 0.176 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33314 44 23 0.129

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Trea TurnerSS 153636154 0.242 19580.296 55111 00 0.200 0.237 0.285 0.338 OK
Kyle SchwarberDH 153575132 0.230 44940.349 44000 03 0.000 0.169 0.289 0.340 OK
Bryce HarperRF 159568153 0.269 28860.382 44310 01 0.750 0.257 0.369 0.434 OK
Bryson Stott2B 153529133 0.251 10650.331 44000 00 0.000 0.269 0.352 0.418 OK
Alec Bohm1B 151565141 0.250 15870.314 44312 00 0.750 0.237 0.296 0.355 OK
Brandon MarshLF 151518135 0.261 18610.306 44100 00 0.250 0.209 0.264 0.373 OK
Edmundo Sosa3B 8122755 0.242 8430.277 44000 00 0.000 0.247 0.265 0.435 OK
Justin CrawfordCF 142417108 0.259 3400.306 43000 11 0.000 0.245 0.287 0.330 OK
J.T. RealmutoC 12041084 0.205 11500.281 44100 00 0.250 0.138 0.214 0.235 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37369 33 15 0.250

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Nick MartinezStarter 30173.63.01 1.0895.6108 6.083304100 6.0 4 3
Bryan BakerCloser 6360.71.33 0.8909.363 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Kevin KellySetup Man 7162.72.87 1.0539.063 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Cam BooserMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4233.32.43 0.93112.245 1.0000108 1.0 0 0

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Zack WheelerStarter 27153.93.10 1.07211.0188 6.03332393 6.0 3 3
Jhoan DuranCloser 5957.41.57 0.97612.982 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Jonathan BowlanSetup Man 5951.23.69 1.13312.873 1.10000012 1.1 0 0
Brooks RaleyMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 159.08.00 2.00011.011 0.21110011 0.2 0 1

Game Summary

TB wins 4-3


Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins

TEX 80-82 (4.15 RPG / 4.44 RA)
5 - 4
MIN 77-85 (4.56 RPG / 4.92 RA)
WINNER: TEX wins 5-4 TARGET: TEX 5 - 4 MIN (TEX) Confidence: 51.2% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
TEX03000001158
MIN40000000044

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.1
Avg Allowed4.3
Run Diff-2
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.6
Avg Allowed3.2
Run Diff14
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

TEX Season Quality

Record80-81
Win%0.497
Run Diff-44
RD/Game-0.273

MIN Season Quality

Record76-85
Win%0.472
Run Diff-60
RD/Game-0.373

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.0204; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brandon NimmoRF 154589153 0.260 14620.324 43000 01 0.000 0.235 0.285 0.356 OK
Wyatt LangfordLF 10940797 0.238 17440.334 44110 01 0.250 0.216 0.307 0.343 OK
Corey SeagerSS 10038086 0.226 19490.312 44000 01 0.000 0.210 0.272 0.377 OK
Jake Burger1B 153552127 0.230 28900.302 43000 10 0.000 0.209 0.278 0.406 OK
Ezequiel Duran3B 150535140 0.262 17830.323 44111 02 0.250 0.243 0.304 0.380 OK
Alejandro OsunaDH 7520253 0.262 1250.346 44210 00 0.500 0.272 0.322 0.325 OK
Danny JansenC 6419439 0.201 7250.295 44214 01 0.500 0.216 0.282 0.377 OK
Nicky Lopez2B 8723063 0.274 1230.325 44110 01 0.250 0.215 0.258 0.273 OK
Evan CarterCF 13639076 0.195 9400.283 44100 00 0.250 0.223 0.287 0.321 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36348 55 17 0.235

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Luke KeaschallRF 150526149 0.283 10520.371 43112 10 0.333 0.307 0.367 0.486 OK
Kaelen CulpepperSS 3211231 0.277 3110.333 44000 01 0.000 0.246 0.280 0.342 OK
Josh BellDH 153566144 0.254 20930.318 44112 00 0.250 0.245 0.303 0.362 OK
Ryan JeffersC 8731479 0.252 14550.342 44110 01 0.250 0.211 0.283 0.351 OK
Kody Clemens2B 142527126 0.239 27800.299 44000 01 0.000 0.240 0.283 0.429 OK
Royce Lewis1B 124459103 0.224 14560.285 44000 02 0.000 0.191 0.240 0.304 OK
Brooks Lee3B 152582147 0.253 24820.299 32000 11 0.000 0.267 0.305 0.422 OK
Austin MartinLF 9929969 0.231 3240.329 33110 01 0.333 0.215 0.291 0.303 OK
Walker JenkinsCF 238017 0.212 4100.284 33000 00 0.000 0.242 0.291 0.408 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33314 44 27 0.129

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
MacKenzie GoreStarter 33166.74.70 1.3749.4174 4.23442679 4.2 6 4
Jacob LatzCloser 5767.11.88 0.80511.183 1.10000017 1.1 0 0
Jakob JunisSetup Man 5149.83.07 1.2656.737 1.10000017 1.1 0 0
Chase SilsethMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 2415.85.13 1.89914.225 0.2000018 0.2 1 0
Tyler AlexanderMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 7362.23.76 1.4478.760 1.01000016 1.0 0 0

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Dean KremerStarter 946.43.88 1.0998.544 5.04220586 5.0 5 2
Yoendrys GómezCloser 5642.94.20 1.58510.952 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
A.J. MinterSetup Man 2317.72.03 1.24310.721 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Andrew MorrisMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6364.54.74 1.5359.568 1.12110123 1.1 1 1
Kody FunderburkMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5740.54.67 1.70410.949 0.22221118 0.2 1 2

Game Summary

TEX wins 5-4