MLB Predictions — September 26, 2026

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
ARI @ SD	5 - 4	5 - 4	ARI	ARI	ARI wins 5-4	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
ATL @ MIA	5 - 4	5 - 4	ATL	ATL	ATL wins 5-4	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CHC @ BOS	4 - 5	4 - 5	BOS	BOS	BOS wins 5-4	54%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CIN @ TOR	3 - 5	3 - 5	TOR	TOR	TOR wins 5-3	62%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CLE @ KC	6 - 5	6 - 5	CLE	CLE	CLE wins 6-5	56%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
COL @ CHW	4 - 9	4 - 9	CHW	CHW	CHW wins 9-4	70%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
HOU @ OAK	6 - 5	6 - 5	HOU	HOU	HOU wins 6-5	52%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
LAA @ SEA	4 - 5	4 - 5	SEA	SEA	SEA wins 5-4	52%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
LAD @ SF	4 - 2	4 - 2	LAD	LAD	LAD wins 4-2	55%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
NYM @ WAS	6 - 7	6 - 7	WAS	WAS	WAS wins 7-6	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
PIT @ DET	6 - 4	6 - 4	PIT	PIT	PIT wins 6-4	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
STL @ MIL	4 - 5	4 - 5	MIL	MIL	MIL wins 5-4	54%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TB @ PHI	4 - 2	4 - 2	TB	TB	TB wins 4-2	61%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TEX @ MIN	4 - 5	4 - 5	MIN	MIN	MIN wins 5-4	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres

ARI 86-74 (4.55 RPG / 4.44 RA)

5 - 4

SD 89-71 (4.39 RPG / 4.19 RA)

WINNER: ARI wins 5-4 TARGET: ARI 5 - 4 SD (ARI) Confidence: 53.4% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ARI	4	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	5	7
SD	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	2	4	5

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs6.3

Avg Allowed4.8

Run Diff15

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak6W

SD Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs5.6

Avg Allowed4.6

Run Diff10

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

ARI Season Quality

Record86-74

Win%0.537

Run Diff17

RD/Game0.106

SD Season Quality

Record89-71

Win%0.556

Run Diff33

RD/Game0.206

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.0525; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Lars Nootbaar	LF	37	119	29	0.244	4	11	0.343	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.248	0.341	0.393	OK
Ketel Marte	2B	138	553	137	0.248	22	75	0.314	5	2	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.235	0.295	0.368	OK
Gabriel Moreno	DH	129	470	146	0.311	16	82	0.387	5	5	2	1	1	0	1	0.400	0.328	0.404	0.515	OK
Geraldo Perdomo	SS	154	553	145	0.262	9	57	0.368	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	0.250	0.323	0.416	0.446	OK
Corbin Carroll	RF	153	569	137	0.241	22	76	0.331	5	5	1	1	1	0	3	0.200	0.220	0.299	0.421	OK
Nolan Arenado	3B	149	523	133	0.254	30	85	0.329	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.313	0.367	0.643	OK
Pavin Smith	1B	37	102	19	0.186	3	12	0.263	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.218	0.295	0.382	OK
James McCann	C	43	142	40	0.282	5	24	0.309	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.233	0.258	0.383	OK
Tim Tawa	CF	93	302	70	0.232	11	41	0.287	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.217	0.278	0.379	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	34	7	5	5	6	9	0.206

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Fernando Tatis Jr.	RF	156	622	181	0.291	25	81	0.358	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.343	0.395	0.548	OK
Dustin Harris	LF	23	80	25	0.312	0	14	0.352	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.258	0.308	0.352	OK
Manny Machado	3B	156	582	125	0.215	29	87	0.302	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.186	0.264	0.355	OK
Jackson Merrill	CF	156	609	154	0.253	26	86	0.301	4	3	1	1	1	0	1	0.333	0.240	0.276	0.385	OK
Ty France	1B	125	432	127	0.294	21	70	0.359	4	2	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.237	0.293	0.399	OK
Gavin Sheets	DH	121	356	75	0.211	16	46	0.310	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.207	0.287	0.364	OK
Xander Bogaerts	SS	152	518	119	0.230	12	56	0.329	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.273	0.369	0.373	OK
Jake Cronenworth	2B	106	371	83	0.224	7	38	0.303	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.225	0.281	0.372	OK
Ethan Salas	C	15	35	8	0.229	2	5	0.250	4	3	1	1	1	1	2	0.333	0.298	0.323	0.454	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	31	5	4	4	6	7	0.161

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Taylor Clarke	Starter	62	55.1	2.94	0.998	6.0	37	6.0	2	1	1	3	6	103	6.0	6	1
Brandyn Garcia	Closer	36	26.8	2.01	0.784	12.1	36	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	19	1.0	1	1
Juan Morillo	Setup Man	48	40.4	2.90	1.114	12.3	55	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	48	40.8	3.09	1.225	7.1	32	1.0	1	2	2	3	0	28	1.0	0	2

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Walker Buehler	Starter	31	145.1	4.71	1.385	7.9	128	4.2	5	5	5	2	7	94	4.2	7	5
Mason Miller	Closer	65	65.5	1.37	0.885	17.5	127	1.0	1	0	0	2	1	24	1.0	1	0
Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	75	75.2	3.23	1.223	12.6	105	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	1.0	0	0
Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	65	62.9	2.00	1.113	11.3	79	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	30	1.1	1	0
Jason Adam	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	38	32.0	2.81	1.250	6.2	22	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

ARI wins 5-4

Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins

ATL 94-68 (4.57 RPG / 3.88 RA)

5 - 4

MIA 79-82 (4.41 RPG / 4.4 RA)

WINNER: ATL wins 5-4 TARGET: ATL 5 - 4 MIA (ATL) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ATL	0	0	3	0	0	1	0	1	0	5	6
MIA	2	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	4	5

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs3.8

Avg Allowed4.1

Run Diff-3

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2L

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.1

Avg Allowed4.1

Run Diff0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

ATL Season Quality

Record93-67

Win%0.581

Run Diff113

RD/Game0.706

MIA Season Quality

Record79-81

Win%0.494

Run Diff6

RD/Game0.037

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.5032; margin adjustment: -0.2113; applied: True

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Michael Harris II	CF	153	584	171	0.293	26	86	0.318	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.276	0.300	0.427	OK
Ronald Acuña Jr.	RF	105	400	104	0.260	20	55	0.350	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.254	0.331	0.444	OK
Matt Olson	1B	159	613	154	0.251	40	89	0.322	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.243	0.309	0.477	OK
Drake Baldwin	C	136	536	151	0.282	24	77	0.357	4	4	1	1	1	0	3	0.250	0.259	0.317	0.384	OK
Austin Riley	3B	156	551	123	0.223	19	72	0.295	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.224	0.280	0.405	OK
Mike Yastrzemski	LF	130	349	80	0.229	12	40	0.307	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.231	0.300	0.451	OK
Ozzie Albies	2B	159	602	146	0.243	22	73	0.299	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.205	0.253	0.316	OK
Dominic Smith	DH	96	261	66	0.253	8	42	0.295	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.112	0.168	0.183	OK
Ha-Seong Kim	SS	43	124	14	0.113	0	9	0.203	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.100	0.179	0.131	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	33	6	5	5	1	9	0.182

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Otto Lopez	SS	156	622	189	0.304	11	71	0.349	4	4	1	1	2	0	2	0.250	0.264	0.312	0.378	OK
Heriberto Hernández	LF	126	440	99	0.225	24	65	0.308	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.196	0.269	0.326	OK
Jakob Marsee	DH	150	513	119	0.232	11	41	0.347	4	3	2	1	2	1	0	0.667	0.240	0.336	0.383	OK
Javier Sanoja	3B	131	453	134	0.296	10	68	0.331	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.309	0.340	0.476	OK
Agustín Ramírez	C	66	218	52	0.239	5	24	0.316	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.247	0.311	0.372	OK
Esteury Ruiz	CF	87	207	45	0.217	6	16	0.300	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.205	0.267	0.337	OK
Griffin Conine	RF	88	276	72	0.261	18	40	0.344	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.262	0.324	0.479	OK
Deyvison De Los Santos	1B	14	34	5	0.147	0	0	0.171	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.152	0.162	0.225	OK
Jared Serna	2B	11	23	4	0.174	0	2	0.200	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.181	0.218	0.278	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	32	5	4	4	4	9	0.156

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Brent Suter	Starter	12	23.5	1.91	1.277	7.7	20	5.0	4	4	4	3	3	98	5.0	3	4
Raisel Iglesias	Closer	58	56.9	2.69	1.125	10.1	64	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Dylan Lee	Setup Man	69	57.6	3.28	1.042	11.9	76	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13	1.0	2	0
Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	57	67.3	2.67	1.189	12.2	91	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	20	1.1	1	0
Dylan Dodd	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	47	43.3	2.49	0.970	11.0	53	0.2	0	0	0	1	2	12	0.2	2	0

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jack Ralston	Starter	15	14.6	4.93	1.370	10.5	17	5.0	5	3	3	0	5	82	5.0	5	3
Calvin Faucher	Closer	68	59.4	3.79	1.465	10.8	71	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0
Michael Petersen	Setup Man	64	57.1	3.47	1.278	12.8	81	1.1	1	2	2	1	2	24	1.1	2	2
Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	19	19.8	5.00	1.414	7.7	17	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0

Game Summary

ATL wins 5-4

Chicago Cubs @ Boston Red Sox

CHC 88-73 (5.24 RPG / 4.35 RA)

4 - 5

BOS 87-74 (4.27 RPG / 3.76 RA)

WINNER: BOS wins 5-4 TARGET: CHC 4 - 5 BOS (BOS) Confidence: 53.9% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHC	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	4	6
BOS	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	5	9

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.5

Avg Allowed3.8

Run Diff7

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs2.2

Avg Allowed2.8

Run Diff-6

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak1L

CHC Season Quality

Record88-71

Win%0.553

Run Diff146

RD/Game0.918

BOS Season Quality

Record85-74

Win%0.535

Run Diff79

RD/Game0.497

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.4141; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	159	617	173	0.280	45	107	0.373	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.272	0.348	0.538	OK
Seiya Suzuki	RF	141	540	147	0.272	26	86	0.369	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.280	0.357	0.506	OK
Alex Bregman	DH	153	600	157	0.262	26	89	0.352	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.267	0.352	0.486	OK
Tyrone Taylor	LF	26	70	24	0.343	1	9	0.390	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.240	0.286	0.428	OK
Nico Hoerner	2B	156	620	164	0.265	8	72	0.316	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.252	0.298	0.323	OK
Matt Shaw	3B	64	169	41	0.243	5	22	0.316	4	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.225	0.304	0.384	OK
Michael Busch	1B	157	590	144	0.244	19	75	0.354	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.238	0.346	0.389	OK
Dansby Swanson	SS	121	417	89	0.213	17	62	0.298	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.229	0.315	0.400	OK
Miguel Amaya	C	70	211	49	0.232	6	28	0.324	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.191	0.253	0.331	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	32	6	4	4	3	6	0.188

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Roman Anthony	LF	54	210	52	0.248	5	15	0.342	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.231	0.300	0.379	OK
Mickey Gasper	C	65	191	48	0.251	10	24	0.351	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.235	0.319	0.446	OK
Adley Rutschman	DH	31	115	25	0.217	4	12	0.268	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.241	0.300	0.412	OK
Wilyer Abreu	RF	153	581	146	0.251	23	75	0.330	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.210	0.285	0.355	OK
Caleb Durbin	3B	146	493	119	0.241	13	61	0.325	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.239	0.314	0.360	OK
Nick Sogard	2B	63	232	58	0.250	5	18	0.337	4	3	2	1	0	1	0	0.667	0.250	0.320	0.369	OK
Jarren Duran	CF	147	543	112	0.206	20	63	0.266	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.218	0.268	0.364	OK
Andruw Monasterio	1B	100	306	72	0.235	6	40	0.294	4	4	2	1	3	0	0	0.500	0.208	0.265	0.330	OK
Isiah Kiner-Falefa	SS	55	161	39	0.242	2	16	0.318	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.208	0.279	0.276	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	34	9	5	5	2	6	0.265

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Clay Holmes	Starter	9	46.8	4.42	1.346	6.3	33	5.2	5	1	1	2	5	106	5.2	5	1
Jacob Webb	Closer	67	59.0	3.81	1.424	11.0	72	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Ryan Zeferjahn	Setup Man	20	14.5	5.59	1.862	11.8	19	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	4	0.1	1	0
Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	31	27.1	3.65	1.218	10.0	30	1.1	4	4	4	0	0	29	1.0	0	4

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jake Bennett	Starter	20	109.6	3.78	1.141	7.5	91	5.2	5	3	3	2	5	104	5.2	5	3
Aroldis Chapman	Closer	52	51.2	1.41	1.055	12.5	71	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	21	1.1	0	0
Erik Miller	Setup Man	19	18.2	3.46	1.429	14.3	29	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	16	1.0	1	1
Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	54	50.7	1.78	0.927	10.5	59	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0

Game Summary

BOS wins 5-4

Cincinnati Reds @ Toronto Blue Jays

CIN 75-86 (4.13 RPG / 5.1 RA)

3 - 5

TOR 78-83 (3.99 RPG / 4.3 RA)

WINNER: TOR wins 5-3 TARGET: CIN 3 - 5 TOR (TOR) Confidence: 62.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CIN	0	0	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	3	5
TOR	0	0	2	1	0	2	0	0	x	5	8

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.5

Avg Allowed4.7

Run Diff-12

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.4

Avg Allowed4.9

Run Diff-15

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

CIN Season Quality

Record74-86

Win%0.463

Run Diff-160

RD/Game-1.000

TOR Season Quality

Record78-82

Win%0.487

Run Diff-46

RD/Game-0.287

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.4385; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Carlos Jorge	CF	14	39	7	0.179	1	1	0.220	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.208	0.242	0.357	OK
Elly De La Cruz	SS	138	538	155	0.288	30	79	0.371	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.262	0.350	0.519	OK
Sal Stewart	1B	157	603	160	0.265	31	108	0.332	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.232	0.294	0.369	OK
Eugenio Suárez	DH	122	424	91	0.215	26	73	0.310	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.231	0.305	0.483	OK
JJ Bleday	LF	127	450	98	0.218	23	57	0.324	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.202	0.295	0.373	OK
Tyler Stephenson	C	126	404	99	0.245	15	54	0.326	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.202	0.273	0.329	OK
Héctor Rodríguez	RF	39	136	31	0.228	6	15	0.271	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.224	0.258	0.401	OK
Juan Brito	3B	14	48	17	0.354	3	11	0.373	3	3	2	1	0	0	0	0.667	0.270	0.307	0.423	OK
Matt McLain	2B	126	429	81	0.189	15	40	0.274	3	2	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.208	0.271	0.341	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	32	5	3	3	2	7	0.156

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Brett Bateman	CF	39	151	48	0.318	2	11	0.392	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.161	0.253	0.249	OK
Nathan Lukes	RF	120	405	113	0.279	10	41	0.326	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.311	0.348	0.396	OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	DH	142	538	141	0.262	9	57	0.331	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.266	0.330	0.366	OK
Alejandro Kirk	C	76	273	77	0.282	10	43	0.352	4	4	2	1	1	0	2	0.500	0.276	0.348	0.382	OK
Kazuma Okamoto	3B	153	563	132	0.234	33	92	0.310	4	2	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.233	0.299	0.400	OK
Sean Keys	1B	21	55	11	0.200	2	9	0.237	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.209	0.244	0.357	OK
Josh Smith	LF	31	71	13	0.183	5	7	0.280	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0.667	0.177	0.256	0.281	OK
Andrés Giménez	SS	139	463	113	0.244	9	57	0.291	4	3	1	1	2	0	0	0.333	0.159	0.191	0.251	OK
Ernie Clement	2B	155	584	153	0.262	9	47	0.288	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.202	0.228	0.291	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	31	8	5	5	4	5	0.258

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Rhett Lowder	Starter	28	123.6	6.19	1.602	7.4	101	4.0	6	4	4	1	2	72	4.0	2	4
Emilio Pagán	Closer	44	41.5	3.47	1.060	9.8	45	2.0	2	1	1	1	1	34	2.0	1	1
Luis Mey	Setup Man	28	31.1	6.95	1.833	13.9	48	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Brock Burke	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	77	65.0	2.63	1.446	10.2	74	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	21	1.0	1	0

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Trey Yesavage	Starter	19	92.4	3.80	1.169	9.2	94	5.0	4	3	3	2	4	95	5.0	4	3
Louis Varland	Closer	71	72.4	1.37	1.077	12.1	97	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Tyler Rogers	Setup Man	74	66.1	1.91	1.256	5.4	40	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Spencer Miles	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	48	87.9	2.76	1.160	9.3	91	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	19	1.1	0	0
Mason Fluharty	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	80	46.5	3.87	1.570	12.6	65	0.2	1	0	0	0	2	11	0.2	2	0

Game Summary

TOR wins 5-3

Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals

CLE 85-76 (4.2 RPG / 4.12 RA)

6 - 5

KC 68-93 (4.27 RPG / 5.02 RA)

WINNER: CLE wins 6-5 TARGET: CLE 6 - 5 KC (CLE) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CLE	0	0	2	1	0	1	0	0	2	6	11
KC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	5	8

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs5.0

Avg Allowed3.7

Run Diff13

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2W

KC Recent Form

Win%0.200

Avg Runs4.8

Avg Allowed6.9

Run Diff-21

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak2L

CLE Season Quality

Record84-76

Win%0.525

Run Diff6

RD/Game0.037

KC Season Quality

Record68-92

Win%0.425

Run Diff-115

RD/Game-0.719

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.9447; margin adjustment: -0.3968; applied: True

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Steven Kwan	CF	144	522	146	0.280	3	31	0.378	5	5	2	1	1	0	1	0.400	0.294	0.396	0.351	OK
José Ramírez	3B	120	456	108	0.237	12	53	0.324	5	5	1	1	0	0	1	0.200	0.269	0.340	0.390	OK
Chase DeLauter	RF	127	478	137	0.287	15	65	0.361	5	5	1	1	1	0	1	0.200	0.257	0.332	0.396	OK
Jo Adell	DH	45	169	40	0.237	6	30	0.319	5	5	2	1	2	0	1	0.400	0.240	0.295	0.388	OK
Travis Bazzana	2B	119	432	103	0.238	15	55	0.329	5	4	0	0	0	1	3	0.000	0.217	0.294	0.369	OK
Nathaniel Lowe	1B	37	122	27	0.221	5	22	0.275	4	3	2	1	0	1	0	0.667	0.167	0.234	0.309	OK
Angel Martínez	LF	105	381	99	0.260	18	62	0.296	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.288	0.312	0.520	OK
Patrick Bailey	C	70	211	50	0.237	7	29	0.299	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.142	0.206	0.216	OK
Brayan Rocchio	SS	148	518	129	0.249	11	65	0.309	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.254	0.302	0.344	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	38	11	6	6	3	10	0.289

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Carter Jensen	C	146	522	124	0.238	27	81	0.322	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.247	0.308	0.571	OK
Bobby Witt Jr.	SS	140	547	154	0.282	18	53	0.359	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.277	0.344	0.409	OK
Jac Caglianone	RF	140	501	142	0.283	23	73	0.335	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.301	0.341	0.448	OK
Salvador Perez	DH	149	569	131	0.230	21	77	0.275	4	2	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.233	0.268	0.429	OK
Vinnie Pasquantino	1B	111	409	101	0.247	15	60	0.331	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.258	0.329	0.482	OK
Michael Massey	2B	127	419	114	0.272	13	49	0.303	4	4	1	1	3	0	0	0.250	0.220	0.247	0.353	OK
John Rave	CF	46	138	32	0.232	6	13	0.307	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.225	0.295	0.407	OK
Josh Rojas	3B	38	101	24	0.238	2	14	0.271	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.126	0.166	0.204	OK
Isaac Collins	LF	140	431	92	0.213	6	40	0.321	4	4	0	0	0	0	4	0.000	0.142	0.250	0.229	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	35	8	5	5	1	10	0.229

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tanner Bibee	Starter	32	177.8	4.45	1.249	7.2	142	5.1	2	0	0	0	6	85	5.1	6	0
Cade Smith	Closer	68	68.9	2.09	1.030	14.0	107	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	23	1.1	0	0
Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	67	51.0	3.35	1.431	10.1	57	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	16	1.0	2	0
Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	58	38.3	3.05	1.332	17.9	76	1.1	5	5	5	0	2	32	1.1	2	5

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Michael Wacha	Starter	31	191.3	3.39	1.124	7.2	154	6.1	8	3	3	2	6	113	6.1	6	3
Nate Pearson	Closer	25	23.7	4.94	1.435	9.5	25	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Alex Lange	Setup Man	58	55.7	6.62	1.688	9.7	60	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	17	1.0	2	0
Connor Thomas	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	16	15.2	2.96	1.316	7.7	13	0.2	3	3	3	0	2	17	0.2	2	3

Game Summary

CLE wins 6-5

Colorado Rockies @ Chicago White Sox

COL 58-103 (4.66 RPG / 5.84 RA)

4 - 9

CHW 83-78 (4.8 RPG / 4.46 RA)

WINNER: CHW wins 9-4 TARGET: COL 4 - 9 CHW (CHW) Confidence: 69.8% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	R	H
COL	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	4	6
CHW	0	1	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	4	9	12

COL Recent Form

Win%0.200

Avg Runs3.8

Avg Allowed6.1

Run Diff-23

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak5L

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs6.4

Avg Allowed4.5

Run Diff19

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak2W

COL Season Quality

Record57-103

Win%0.356

Run Diff-193

RD/Game-1.206

CHW Season Quality

Record83-77

Win%0.519

Run Diff57

RD/Game0.356

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.5269; margin adjustment: 2.443; applied: True

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jake McCarthy	LF	139	540	158	0.293	15	82	0.333	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.234	0.262	0.378	OK
Cole Carrigg	CF	88	324	89	0.275	11	51	0.338	5	4	2	1	0	1	1	0.500	0.278	0.326	0.469	OK
Hunter Goodman	DH	136	510	125	0.245	39	84	0.310	5	5	2	1	2	0	1	0.400	0.240	0.295	0.501	OK
TJ Rumfield	1B	151	543	163	0.300	16	71	0.389	5	5	1	1	2	0	1	0.200	0.286	0.361	0.445	OK
Connor Norby	3B	38	124	38	0.306	3	17	0.387	5	5	1	1	0	0	3	0.200	0.252	0.326	0.383	OK
Adael Amador	2B	24	76	21	0.276	4	14	0.353	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.254	0.321	0.423	OK
Mickey Moniak	RF	113	398	95	0.239	23	65	0.276	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.217	0.252	0.458	OK
Brett Sullivan	C	72	215	49	0.228	7	33	0.265	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.212	0.247	0.339	OK
Ezequiel Tovar	SS	139	454	99	0.218	12	43	0.264	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.211	0.252	0.366	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	39	6	4	4	2	10	0.154

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Miguel Vargas	3B	157	586	147	0.251	33	93	0.360	6	5	0	1	0	1	1	0.000	0.257	0.366	0.441	OK
Tommy Pham	DH	6	11	3	0.273	1	3	0.467	6	5	1	1	1	1	0	0.200	0.161	0.278	0.306	OK
Randal Grichuk	LF	98	227	69	0.304	14	41	0.331	6	6	2	1	0	0	1	0.333	0.313	0.337	0.594	OK
Munetaka Murakami	1B	125	445	93	0.209	35	77	0.351	6	5	2	1	4	1	2	0.400	0.239	0.371	0.564	OK
Brenton Doyle	CF	31	87	22	0.253	3	8	0.253	6	6	1	1	0	0	2	0.167	0.190	0.230	0.306	OK
Kyle Teel	C	37	115	23	0.200	5	26	0.321	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.226	0.332	0.392	OK
Sam Antonacci	2B	135	464	125	0.269	8	48	0.364	5	5	0	1	0	0	3	0.000	0.285	0.336	0.403	OK
Luisangel Acuña	SS	79	205	46	0.224	1	12	0.261	5	5	2	1	3	0	1	0.400	0.117	0.162	0.154	OK
Tristan Peters	RF	144	428	115	0.269	12	56	0.338	5	4	3	1	1	1	0	0.750	0.252	0.313	0.405	OK
TEAM TOTALS									50	45	12	9	9	5	11	0.267

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jose Quintana	Starter	10	42.9	5.66	1.585	4.6	22	4.0	7	5	5	4	6	87	4.0	6	4
Jordan Romano	Closer	26	23.5	3.45	1.234	9.6	25	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	24	1.2	1	0
Brennan Bernardino	Setup Man	72	51.7	2.96	1.315	8.4	48	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	20	1.1	2	0
Jimmy Herget	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	50	46.9	6.52	1.706	9.0	47	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	21	1.0	0	0
Nick Frasso	Reliever	19	18.8	6.70	1.702	10.1	21	1.0	3	4	4	1	0	24	0.0	0	4
Mark Manfredi	Reliever	13	13.8	3.91	1.739	9.8	15	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	17	0.0	2	0

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Davis Martin	Starter	28	141.6	3.94	1.328	7.7	121	5.0	1	0	0	0	5	78	5.0	5	0
Grant Taylor	Closer	41	51.9	2.60	1.118	13.2	76	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0
Sean Newcomb	Setup Man	53	73.6	3.18	1.277	9.5	78	1.1	1	1	1	1	2	24	1.1	2	1
Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	66	57.4	2.98	1.324	9.3	59	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	1.0	0	0
Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	42	33.7	4.54	1.780	13.1	49	1.2	3	2	2	0	1	33	0.1	1	2
Hagen Smith	Middle Reliever	9	14.6	0.00	0.959	14.2	23	0.2	1	1	1	0	1	11	0.0	1	1

Game Summary

CHW wins 9-4

Houston Astros @ Oakland Athletics

HOU 79-81 (4.45 RPG / 4.78 RA)

6 - 5

OAK 64-96 (4.36 RPG / 5.72 RA)

WINNER: HOU wins 6-5 TARGET: HOU 6 - 5 OAK (HOU) Confidence: 52.3% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
HOU	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	6	10
OAK	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	2	0	5	6

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.3

Avg Allowed4.2

Run Diff1

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs4.1

Avg Allowed5.6

Run Diff-15

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak1W

HOU Season Quality

Record79-81

Win%0.494

Run Diff-52

RD/Game-0.325

OAK Season Quality

Record64-96

Win%0.400

Run Diff-218

RD/Game-1.363

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.8708; margin adjustment: -0.3657; applied: True

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jeremy Peña	SS	108	436	118	0.271	20	51	0.321	5	4	2	1	0	1	1	0.500	0.259	0.287	0.419	OK
Yordan Alvarez	DH	155	554	176	0.318	41	102	0.435	5	4	2	1	3	1	0	0.500	0.344	0.447	0.610	OK
Isaac Paredes	3B	152	550	141	0.256	24	93	0.356	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.242	0.327	0.468	OK
Jose Altuve	2B	132	515	128	0.249	16	47	0.303	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.244	0.286	0.375	OK
Yainer Diaz	C	90	330	93	0.282	14	43	0.311	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.309	0.328	0.519	OK
Christian Walker	1B	152	560	126	0.225	28	85	0.298	5	5	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.236	0.296	0.498	OK
Lucas Spence	CF	15	48	9	0.188	3	8	0.264	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.203	0.265	0.433	OK
Cam Smith	RF	146	503	105	0.209	21	54	0.274	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.190	0.250	0.402	OK
Taylor Trammell	LF	88	250	49	0.196	8	22	0.282	4	4	1	1	3	0	0	0.250	0.115	0.212	0.233	OK
TEAM TOTALS									43	37	10	6	6	5	8	0.270

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Henry Bolte	CF	113	408	113	0.277	11	38	0.356	4	3	1	1	3	1	1	0.333	0.280	0.336	0.423	OK
Lawrence Butler	RF	145	465	110	0.237	17	62	0.323	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.253	0.323	0.399	OK
Shea Langeliers	DH	104	418	110	0.263	23	58	0.328	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.256	0.311	0.445	OK
Jeff McNeil	2B	140	472	126	0.267	9	59	0.312	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.272	0.313	0.402	OK
Zack Gelof	3B	105	386	99	0.256	22	54	0.323	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.261	0.311	0.526	OK
Donovan Walton	SS	54	133	31	0.233	6	20	0.374	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.261	0.341	0.458	OK
Carlos Cortes	LF	119	337	86	0.255	10	43	0.321	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.254	0.315	0.440	OK
Tommy White	1B	53	184	46	0.250	3	9	0.268	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.249	0.270	0.328	OK
Jonah Heim	C	92	316	64	0.203	12	35	0.257	3	3	1	1	2	0	0	0.333	0.202	0.255	0.319	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	33	6	5	5	2	7	0.182

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Hayden Wesneski	Starter	10	53.3	3.55	1.163	6.9	41	5.1	2	3	3	1	3	82	5.1	3	3
Josh Hader	Closer	44	43.5	0.83	0.713	11.4	55	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Logan VanWey	Setup Man	9	11.2	1.61	0.982	7.2	9	1.1	3	2	2	0	2	26	1.1	2	2
Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	65	55.9	4.19	1.485	12.9	80	1.1	1	0	0	1	1	24	1.1	1	0

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jack Perkins	Starter	36	110.4	6.20	1.522	10.7	131	4.2	5	3	3	2	3	94	4.2	3	3
Elvis Alvarado	Closer	54	47.7	4.34	1.426	11.7	62	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	16	1.0	2	0
Hogan Harris	Setup Man	74	58.9	3.97	1.732	13.4	88	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	20	1.0	1	1
Luis Medina	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	58	66.7	3.10	1.439	12.5	93	1.0	3	2	2	2	1	30	1.0	1	2
Scott Blewett	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	23	29.6	3.34	1.486	9.1	30	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	19	1.1	1	0

Game Summary

HOU wins 6-5

Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners

LAA 62-98 (4.05 RPG / 4.61 RA)

4 - 5

SEA 74-86 (4.06 RPG / 4.47 RA)

WINNER: SEA wins 5-4 TARGET: LAA 4 - 5 SEA (SEA) Confidence: 51.8% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
LAA	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	2	1	4	8
SEA	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	x	5	8

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs3.8

Avg Allowed5.3

Run Diff-15

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak2W

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.7

Avg Allowed4.5

Run Diff-8

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2L

LAA Season Quality

Record62-98

Win%0.388

Run Diff-89

RD/Game-0.556

SEA Season Quality

Record74-86

Win%0.463

Run Diff-66

RD/Game-0.412

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.1596; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Zach Neto	SS	155	613	148	0.241	27	77	0.329	5	5	0	0	0	0	4	0.000	0.253	0.330	0.448	OK
Mike Trout	DH	141	509	124	0.244	22	54	0.384	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.246	0.383	0.425	OK
Jose Siri	LF	86	222	52	0.234	9	30	0.285	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.179	0.230	0.312	OK
Vaughn Grissom	1B	114	414	101	0.244	13	70	0.309	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.256	0.304	0.406	OK
Denzer Guzman	3B	77	274	60	0.219	8	33	0.267	4	3	1	1	2	1	1	0.333	0.150	0.211	0.250	OK
Christian Moore	2B	36	129	24	0.186	2	18	0.237	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.228	0.266	0.393	OK
Wade Meckler	RF	90	294	90	0.306	3	27	0.376	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.321	0.383	0.415	OK
Bryce Teodosio	CF	24	62	12	0.194	0	4	0.242	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.190	0.241	0.234	OK
Tyler Heineman	C	35	96	18	0.188	0	3	0.235	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.148	0.170	0.199	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	35	8	4	4	2	11	0.229

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
J.P. Crawford	SS	113	404	88	0.218	13	38	0.334	4	4	1	1	3	0	1	0.250	0.198	0.293	0.301	OK
Randy Arozarena	CF	152	564	158	0.280	26	77	0.380	4	3	2	1	0	1	0	0.667	0.280	0.369	0.481	OK
Dominic Canzone	DH	142	469	124	0.264	23	77	0.332	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.301	0.350	0.520	OK
Cal Raleigh	C	123	442	79	0.179	23	68	0.293	4	3	0	1	1	0	0	0.000	0.157	0.277	0.351	OK
Josh Naylor	1B	150	589	155	0.263	10	55	0.319	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.185	0.240	0.248	OK
Cole Young	2B	157	572	139	0.243	17	65	0.306	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.202	0.252	0.297	OK
Michael Arroyo	LF	13	29	9	0.310	1	4	0.400	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.293	0.387	0.451	OK
Lazaro Montes	RF	18	49	10	0.204	4	9	0.264	3	2	1	1	0	1	1	0.500	0.122	0.193	0.232	OK
Leo Rivas	3B	44	120	18	0.150	0	10	0.270	3	3	1	1	1	0	1	0.333	0.166	0.254	0.226	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	31	8	5	5	2	6	0.258

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Ryan Johnson	Starter	21	92.9	5.04	1.378	7.4	76	5.1	5	1	1	0	4	94	5.1	4	1
Mitch Farris	Closer	32	55.2	3.75	1.522	9.8	60	1.2	3	4	4	2	1	40	1.2	1	4
Ryan Watson	Setup Man	18	14.0	2.57	1.286	14.1	22	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Kade Anderson	Starter	6	31.4	4.30	1.242	8.0	28	5.1	2	1	1	2	8	93	5.1	8	1
José A. Ferrer	Closer	71	54.3	4.64	1.657	9.0	54	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Eduard Bazardo	Setup Man	71	55.6	4.53	1.691	10.8	67	1.0	4	2	2	0	0	25	1.0	0	2
Gabe Speier	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	53	38.0	3.55	1.316	10.4	44	1.2	1	1	1	0	2	28	1.2	2	1

Game Summary

SEA wins 5-4

Los Angeles Dodgers @ San Francisco Giants

LAD 99-62 (4.94 RPG / 3.72 RA)

4 - 2

SF 66-96 (4.17 RPG / 4.67 RA)

WINNER: LAD wins 4-2 TARGET: LAD 4 - 2 SF (LAD) Confidence: 55.3% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
LAD	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	1	0	4	6
SF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	5

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs4.7

Avg Allowed2.4

Run Diff23

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak1W

SF Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.3

Avg Allowed4.2

Run Diff-9

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak3L

LAD Season Quality

Record98-62

Win%0.613

Run Diff196

RD/Game1.225

SF Season Quality

Record65-95

Win%0.406

Run Diff-86

RD/Game-0.537

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.6407; margin adjustment: -2.6251; applied: True

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Mookie Betts	SS	119	468	122	0.261	22	68	0.326	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.247	0.317	0.415	OK
Shohei Ohtani	DH	132	510	140	0.275	30	79	0.378	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.263	0.363	0.475	OK
Will Smith	C	69	232	60	0.259	10	33	0.352	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.349	0.425	0.581	OK
Teoscar Hernández	LF	121	432	116	0.269	16	63	0.335	4	3	1	1	0	0	1	0.333	0.281	0.335	0.454	OK
Kyle Tucker	RF	148	527	123	0.233	17	70	0.326	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.233	0.313	0.374	OK
Miguel Rojas	3B	95	220	59	0.268	4	22	0.297	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.273	0.306	0.407	OK
Andy Pages	CF	130	501	138	0.275	22	80	0.343	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.296	0.354	0.500	OK
Enrique Hernández	1B	34	84	19	0.226	3	11	0.278	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.242	0.293	0.396	OK
Tommy Edman	2B	78	280	66	0.236	8	39	0.315	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.219	0.269	0.397	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	33	6	4	4	2	9	0.182

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jonah Cox	2B	49	142	37	0.261	4	16	0.309	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.226	0.283	0.345	OK
Turner Hill	CF	30	100	22	0.220	1	15	0.308	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.182	0.251	0.273	OK
Victor Bericoto	DH	36	106	25	0.236	5	15	0.257	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.218	0.247	0.387	OK
Bo Davidson	RF	4	13	4	0.308	0	0	0.357	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.280	0.329	0.308	OK
Brett Harris	1B	12	33	6	0.182	0	2	0.250	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.160	0.220	0.225	OK
Andrew Knizner	C	26	70	16	0.229	2	4	0.299	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.244	0.281	0.377	OK
Shay Whitcomb	3B	25	85	18	0.212	2	8	0.221	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.189	0.205	0.293	OK
Scott Bandura	LF	10	24	5	0.208	0	0	0.240	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.190	0.223	0.272	OK
Christian Koss	SS	63	192	44	0.229	4	12	0.267	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.181	0.213	0.256	OK
TEAM TOTALS									32	32	5	2	2	0	5	0.156

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Blake Snell	Starter	8	38.2	1.88	1.099	12.3	52	5.2	1	0	0	0	5	74	5.2	5	0
Tanner Scott	Closer	68	57.3	2.98	1.082	12.6	80	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Brock Stewart	Setup Man	26	23.1	2.34	1.039	9.4	24	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	20	1.1	0	0
Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	70	45.5	3.36	1.363	14.0	71	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	8	1.0	0	2

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Matt Wilkinson	Starter	7	24.2	3.72	1.033	6.7	18	4.2	3	1	1	1	6	80	4.2	6	1
Dylan Smith	Closer	41	34.0	4.50	1.647	11.6	44	2.0	2	2	2	0	2	31	2.0	2	2
Trent Harris	Setup Man	20	19.7	2.28	1.168	12.3	27	1.1	1	1	1	1	0	24	1.1	0	1
Carson Seymour	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	23	26.4	5.45	1.780	7.2	21	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

LAD wins 4-2

New York Mets @ Washington Nationals

NYM 74-87 (4.32 RPG / 4.5 RA)

6 - 7

WAS 76-85 (5.06 RPG / 5.04 RA)

WINNER: WAS wins 7-6 TARGET: NYM 6 - 7 WAS (WAS) Confidence: 50.6% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYM	0	2	0	0	3	0	0	0	1	6	9
WAS	0	2	2	0	0	1	2	0	x	7	9

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.4

Avg Allowed4.5

Run Diff-1

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2L

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs4.8

Avg Allowed4.0

Run Diff8

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak3W

NYM Season Quality

Record73-87

Win%0.456

Run Diff-36

RD/Game-0.225

WAS Season Quality

Record76-84

Win%0.475

Run Diff10

RD/Game0.062

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.3536; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Francisco Lindor	SS	101	408	92	0.225	20	48	0.305	5	5	3	1	5	0	0	0.600	0.199	0.258	0.330	OK
Juan Soto	DH	107	388	108	0.278	27	68	0.394	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.281	0.399	0.514	OK
Bo Bichette	3B	154	618	162	0.262	18	78	0.312	5	5	1	1	1	0	1	0.200	0.259	0.309	0.435	OK
Carson Benge	RF	150	576	158	0.274	20	63	0.340	5	5	1	1	0	0	0	0.200	0.279	0.342	0.447	OK
Brett Baty	1B	133	407	99	0.243	11	56	0.312	4	3	2	1	0	1	0	0.667	0.286	0.356	0.457	OK
Marcus Semien	2B	135	480	105	0.219	15	49	0.286	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.180	0.243	0.297	OK
A.J. Ewing	CF	117	426	109	0.256	10	40	0.326	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.255	0.325	0.357	OK
Francisco Alvarez	C	107	362	83	0.229	15	41	0.306	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.261	0.315	0.424	OK
Nick Morabito	LF	15	41	8	0.195	0	4	0.283	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.204	0.257	0.271	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	36	9	6	6	4	4	0.250

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
James Wood	DH	133	506	134	0.265	30	77	0.389	5	4	0	0	0	1	3	0.000	0.266	0.380	0.472	OK
Daylen Lile	LF	158	594	148	0.249	22	89	0.300	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.262	0.301	0.434	OK
Abimelec Ortiz	1B	43	125	24	0.192	5	13	0.235	4	3	2	1	4	1	0	0.667	0.104	0.157	0.209	OK
CJ Abrams	SS	150	571	150	0.263	33	105	0.339	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.272	0.340	0.567	OK
Dylan Crews	RF	105	397	89	0.224	13	44	0.290	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.227	0.278	0.389	OK
Jorbit Vivas	2B	114	310	74	0.239	3	30	0.329	4	3	2	1	1	1	0	0.667	0.243	0.323	0.319	OK
Brady House	3B	90	314	77	0.245	10	45	0.306	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.279	0.340	0.411	OK
Keibert Ruiz	C	100	329	93	0.283	10	48	0.319	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.261	0.289	0.401	OK
Jacob Young	CF	126	417	105	0.252	10	46	0.310	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.268	0.313	0.389	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	33	9	7	7	4	8	0.273

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jonah Tong	Starter	6	24.5	4.41	1.388	9.2	25	5.0	5	4	4	2	6	98	5.0	6	3
Kodai Senga	Closer	31	58.3	7.72	1.732	11.6	75	0.2	2	1	1	1	0	18	0.2	0	1
Nathan Lavender	Setup Man	20	16.0	2.25	1.000	14.6	26	1.1	2	2	2	0	0	31	1.1	0	2
Jonathan Pintaro	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	22	28.1	5.77	1.495	9.6	30	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	17	1.0	2	0

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Connelly Early	Starter	0	0	0.00	0.000	0.0	0	5.2	4	5	5	3	3	99	5.2	3	5
Erik Tolman	Closer	14	11.9	3.78	1.681	11.3	15	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Brad Lord	Setup Man	40	75.4	4.18	1.353	9.2	77	1.1	1	0	0	1	1	24	1.1	1	0
Luis Perales	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	6	11.0	11.45	2.545	10.6	13	1.0	3	1	1	0	0	22	1.0	0	1

Game Summary

WAS wins 7-6

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Detroit Tigers

PIT 81-80 (4.74 RPG / 4.58 RA)

6 - 4

DET 76-85 (4.48 RPG / 4.02 RA)

WINNER: PIT wins 6-4 TARGET: PIT 6 - 4 DET (PIT) Confidence: 51.3% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PIT	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	10
DET	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	1	0	4	8

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.2

Avg Allowed4.1

Run Diff1

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

DET Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.5

Avg Allowed4.4

Run Diff1

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

PIT Season Quality

Record81-79

Win%0.506

Run Diff27

RD/Game0.169

DET Season Quality

Record75-85

Win%0.469

Run Diff72

RD/Game0.450

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.0805; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ryan O'Hearn	DH	103	390	107	0.274	18	75	0.337	5	5	2	1	0	0	1	0.400	0.280	0.340	0.446	OK
Brandon Lowe	2B	146	568	147	0.259	34	95	0.330	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0.200	0.241	0.310	0.469	OK
Bryan Reynolds	LF	156	578	151	0.261	17	71	0.366	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.222	0.315	0.367	OK
Oneil Cruz	CF	95	367	103	0.281	20	67	0.368	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.276	0.350	0.464	OK
Konnor Griffin	SS	77	304	81	0.266	5	31	0.320	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.255	0.294	0.369	OK
Spencer Horwitz	1B	112	379	94	0.248	10	49	0.345	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.266	0.350	0.367	OK
Ronny Simon	RF	18	58	16	0.276	1	4	0.323	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.242	0.290	0.378	OK
Jacob Gonzalez	3B	44	110	21	0.191	2	9	0.217	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.218	0.262	0.316	OK
Henry Davis	C	84	251	41	0.163	10	38	0.254	4	4	1	1	4	0	0	0.250	0.164	0.251	0.334	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	37	10	6	6	1	5	0.270

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Max Clark	CF	48	167	45	0.269	3	21	0.353	5	5	1	1	1	0	0	0.200	0.262	0.321	0.369	OK
Hao-Yu Lee	2B	105	319	85	0.266	10	46	0.321	5	5	2	0	0	0	1	0.400	0.250	0.298	0.396	OK
Kevin McGonigle	3B	152	588	163	0.277	17	70	0.377	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.279	0.374	0.420	OK
Eduardo Valencia	DH	39	120	42	0.350	6	18	0.391	4	3	0	1	1	0	0	0.000	0.360	0.401	0.609	OK
Riley Greene	LF	136	499	142	0.285	21	75	0.375	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.264	0.362	0.430	OK
Dillon Dingler	C	142	539	132	0.245	27	91	0.304	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.227	0.267	0.382	OK
Spencer Torkelson	1B	154	517	118	0.228	25	75	0.324	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.268	0.352	0.561	OK
Zach McKinstry	RF	120	365	74	0.203	4	26	0.285	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.131	0.220	0.212	OK
Javier Báez	SS	54	180	43	0.239	3	19	0.270	4	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.207	0.238	0.354	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	34	8	4	4	2	7	0.235

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Kirby Yates	Starter	14	12.4	2.18	1.371	8.7	12	5.0	5	2	2	2	4	91	5.0	4	2
Mason Montgomery	Closer	67	59.3	2.58	1.113	15.5	102	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Luke Weaver	Setup Man	17	13.7	5.91	1.533	12.5	19	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	67	59.7	3.62	1.240	11.9	79	1.0	2	2	2	0	1	19	1.0	1	2
Yohan Ramírez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	65	75.5	3.22	1.311	11.8	99	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Justin Verlander	Starter	1	3.2	14.06	2.500	2.8	1	3.2	9	6	6	0	3	83	3.2	3	6
Kenley Jansen	Closer	49	41.5	3.04	1.084	11.1	51	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Tyler Holton	Setup Man	67	60.8	3.26	1.480	8.1	55	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Drew Sommers	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	42	30.8	3.80	1.429	18.1	62	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	1.0	0	0
Jacob Waguespack	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	34	40.3	2.90	1.017	7.4	33	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0
Tyler Kinley	Middle Reliever	14	11.9	2.27	0.840	4.5	6	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	8	0.2	0	0
Drew Anderson	Reliever	49	99.6	3.98	1.376	10.3	114	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	4	0.1	1	0

Game Summary

PIT wins 6-4

St. Louis Cardinals @ Milwaukee Brewers

STL 77-84 (4.45 RPG / 4.61 RA)

4 - 5

MIL 102-59 (5.13 RPG / 3.81 RA)

WINNER: MIL wins 5-4 TARGET: STL 4 - 5 MIL (MIL) Confidence: 53.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
STL	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	4	6
MIL	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	1	x	5	9

STL Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.1

Avg Allowed5.0

Run Diff-19

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak2L

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs4.5

Avg Allowed2.9

Run Diff16

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak3W

STL Season Quality

Record77-83

Win%0.481

Run Diff-26

RD/Game-0.163

MIL Season Quality

Record101-59

Win%0.631

Run Diff211

RD/Game1.319

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.4507; margin adjustment: 0.6093; applied: True

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
JJ Wetherholt	2B	134	523	128	0.245	17	50	0.342	5	3	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.235	0.308	0.345	OK
Iván Herrera	DH	155	589	142	0.241	18	67	0.349	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.213	0.279	0.463	OK
Alec Burleson	1B	155	589	164	0.278	25	112	0.342	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.165	0.224	0.375	OK
Jordan Walker	RF	153	588	159	0.270	27	96	0.330	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.194	0.256	0.381	OK
Leonardo Bernal	C	22	89	26	0.292	4	18	0.330	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.254	0.288	0.390	OK
Nolan Gorman	3B	81	257	49	0.191	9	33	0.272	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.200	0.288	0.311	OK
Bryan Torres	LF	62	156	36	0.231	3	17	0.303	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.197	0.272	0.275	OK
Thomas Saggese	SS	49	155	36	0.232	4	13	0.295	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.162	0.226	0.266	OK
Nathan Church	CF	127	423	107	0.253	10	49	0.296	4	3	1	1	1	0	1	0.333	0.145	0.187	0.233	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	33	6	4	4	3	6	0.182

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jackson Chourio	LF	123	508	147	0.289	25	72	0.351	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.237	0.318	0.413	OK
Brice Turang	2B	145	564	155	0.275	20	98	0.370	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.310	0.384	0.492	OK
Jake Bauers	1B	136	461	123	0.267	25	84	0.387	4	4	3	1	0	0	0	0.750	0.280	0.386	0.459	OK
William Contreras	C	144	558	150	0.269	18	93	0.338	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.246	0.311	0.392	OK
Gary Sánchez	DH	81	219	46	0.210	11	36	0.348	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.225	0.360	0.416	OK
Luis Lara	CF	54	184	45	0.245	1	26	0.305	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.237	0.291	0.309	OK
Cooper Pratt	SS	68	215	60	0.279	3	33	0.344	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.196	0.275	0.255	OK
Brandon Lockridge	RF	33	95	26	0.274	0	12	0.349	4	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.281	0.350	0.331	OK
David Hamilton	3B	110	331	80	0.242	4	26	0.307	4	4	1	1	2	0	2	0.250	0.245	0.306	0.330	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	32	9	5	5	3	7	0.281

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Quinn Mathews	Starter	8	43.4	3.73	1.406	8.1	39	6.0	5	1	1	0	7	100	6.0	7	1
Riley O'Brien	Closer	66	61.2	4.26	1.340	9.4	64	1.2	4	3	3	0	0	33	1.2	0	3
George Soriano	Setup Man	70	57.6	4.84	1.597	10.3	66	0.1	0	1	1	3	0	16	0.1	0	1

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Dustin May	Starter	9	32.5	5.82	1.477	9.1	33	4.1	1	1	1	2	3	78	4.1	3	1
Trevor Megill	Closer	62	60.5	2.08	0.876	10.3	69	1.0	3	2	2	1	1	26	1.0	1	2
Abner Uribe	Setup Man	61	54.9	2.13	1.111	10.2	62	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	74	80.1	3.48	1.461	12.8	114	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	28	1.2	1	0
Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	22	16.7	6.47	1.856	7.0	13	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	16	1.0	0	1

Game Summary

MIL wins 5-4

Tampa Bay Rays @ Philadelphia Phillies

TB 97-63 (4.51 RPG / 4.01 RA)

4 - 2

PHI 87-73 (4.41 RPG / 4.27 RA)

WINNER: TB wins 4-2 TARGET: TB 4 - 2 PHI (TB) Confidence: 60.8% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TB	0	1	0	1	0	1	0	0	1	4	9
PHI	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	2	5

TB Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs3.7

Avg Allowed2.8

Run Diff9

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak1W

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.0

Avg Allowed3.9

Run Diff-9

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak3L

TB Season Quality

Record97-63

Win%0.606

Run Diff79

RD/Game0.494

PHI Season Quality

Record87-73

Win%0.544

Run Diff22

RD/Game0.138

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.4479; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Yandy Díaz	DH	152	606	177	0.292	22	85	0.358	5	5	2	1	0	0	1	0.400	0.228	0.284	0.323	OK
Jonathan Aranda	1B	152	571	158	0.277	22	92	0.358	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.262	0.334	0.467	OK
Liam Hicks	C	39	115	32	0.278	4	20	0.378	5	3	1	0	0	2	1	0.333	0.233	0.310	0.330	OK
Junior Caminero	3B	159	607	167	0.275	41	99	0.360	5	4	2	1	0	1	0	0.500	0.245	0.315	0.405	OK
Victor Mesa Jr.	LF	69	226	56	0.248	14	31	0.313	5	5	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.244	0.314	0.470	OK
Richie Palacios	2B	116	337	79	0.234	10	53	0.330	5	4	1	1	3	1	1	0.250	0.249	0.341	0.375	OK
Jonny DeLuca	RF	101	338	90	0.266	9	48	0.299	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0.200	0.262	0.298	0.385	OK
Cedric Mullins	CF	131	430	88	0.205	15	46	0.285	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.144	0.218	0.259	OK
Taylor Walls	SS	116	361	80	0.222	2	36	0.310	4	2	0	1	1	1	0	0.000	0.233	0.323	0.314	OK
TEAM TOTALS									43	36	9	4	4	6	7	0.250

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Trea Turner	SS	152	631	152	0.241	19	58	0.295	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.225	0.280	0.323	OK
Kyle Schwarber	DH	152	571	132	0.231	44	94	0.350	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.193	0.327	0.385	OK
Bryce Harper	1B	158	563	152	0.270	28	86	0.383	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.255	0.368	0.407	OK
Alec Bohm	3B	150	561	141	0.251	15	87	0.316	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.242	0.297	0.346	OK
Bryson Stott	2B	152	525	131	0.250	10	65	0.329	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.237	0.326	0.354	OK
Bryan De La Cruz	RF	29	73	21	0.288	2	12	0.341	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.158	0.214	0.253	OK
Brandon Marsh	LF	150	515	134	0.260	18	61	0.305	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.196	0.244	0.354	OK
J.T. Realmuto	C	119	408	84	0.206	11	50	0.283	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.147	0.226	0.253	OK
Justin Crawford	CF	141	413	107	0.259	3	40	0.306	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.235	0.278	0.348	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	32	5	2	2	1	3	0.156

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Griffin Jax	Starter	32	105.6	3.49	1.193	9.8	115	5.0	1	0	0	0	2	66	5.0	2	0
Bryan Baker	Closer	63	60.7	1.33	0.890	9.3	63	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Kevin Kelly	Setup Man	71	62.7	2.87	1.053	9.0	63	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Cam Booser	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	41	32.3	2.51	0.929	12.0	43	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Cole Sulser	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	49	50.9	4.24	1.277	9.5	54	1.0	3	2	2	1	0	26	1.0	0	2

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Aaron Nola	Starter	32	170.6	4.64	1.360	9.3	177	6.0	4	1	1	3	5	112	6.0	5	2
Jhoan Duran	Closer	59	57.4	1.57	0.976	12.9	82	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	28	1.0	0	0
Jonathan Bowlan	Setup Man	59	51.2	3.69	1.133	12.8	73	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	21	1.0	0	2
Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	14	8.0	9.00	2.000	12.4	11	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	12	0.2	1	0
Tim Mayza	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	60	61.5	3.80	1.236	9.4	64	0.1	3	2	2	1	1	17	0.1	1	0

Game Summary

TB wins 4-2

Texas Rangers @ Minnesota Twins

TEX 80-81 (4.16 RPG / 4.43 RA)

4 - 5

MIN 76-85 (4.55 RPG / 4.93 RA)

WINNER: MIN wins 5-4 TARGET: TEX 4 - 5 MIN (MIN) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TEX	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	1	1	4	6
MIN	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	1	5	6

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs3.9

Avg Allowed4.3

Run Diff-4

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.5

Avg Allowed3.4

Run Diff11

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak3W

TEX Season Quality

Record79-81

Win%0.494

Run Diff-48

RD/Game-0.300

MIN Season Quality

Record76-84

Win%0.475

Run Diff-56

RD/Game-0.350

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.0556; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Brandon Nimmo	RF	153	584	152	0.260	14	61	0.325	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.241	0.293	0.360	OK
Wyatt Langford	LF	108	402	97	0.241	17	44	0.338	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.219	0.323	0.352	OK
Corey Seager	SS	99	375	85	0.227	19	49	0.314	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.206	0.273	0.374	OK
Jake Burger	1B	152	547	126	0.230	27	89	0.303	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.218	0.295	0.400	OK
Ezequiel Duran	3B	149	532	138	0.259	17	83	0.320	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.232	0.291	0.369	OK
Nicky Lopez	2B	86	228	62	0.272	1	23	0.324	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.216	0.258	0.253	OK
Danny Jansen	C	63	190	37	0.195	6	23	0.292	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.183	0.254	0.304	OK
Evan Carter	CF	135	386	74	0.192	9	39	0.281	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.194	0.265	0.285	OK
Alejandro Osuna	DH	74	199	51	0.256	1	24	0.342	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.250	0.303	0.291	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	33	6	4	4	3	5	0.182

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Luke Keaschall	RF	149	523	147	0.281	10	52	0.368	4	4	0	1	0	0	1	0.000	0.294	0.355	0.451	OK
Brooks Lee	3B	151	578	146	0.253	24	82	0.300	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.267	0.303	0.416	OK
Kody Clemens	2B	141	523	125	0.239	27	79	0.299	4	3	2	1	0	1	0	0.667	0.256	0.298	0.479	OK
Josh Bell	DH	152	562	143	0.254	20	92	0.318	4	3	1	1	2	1	1	0.333	0.260	0.320	0.389	OK
Walker Jenkins	CF	22	76	17	0.224	4	10	0.298	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.261	0.309	0.427	OK
Alan Roden	LF	30	77	22	0.286	1	14	0.367	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.303	0.387	0.417	OK
Royce Lewis	1B	123	455	103	0.226	14	56	0.287	3	3	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.217	0.267	0.350	OK
Victor Caratini	C	103	323	71	0.220	7	43	0.309	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.222	0.280	0.296	OK
Kaelen Culpepper	SS	31	109	30	0.275	3	11	0.333	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.228	0.266	0.331	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	31	6	5	5	2	10	0.194

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Nathan Eovaldi	Starter	26	139.7	4.32	1.224	9.1	141	5.0	4	4	4	1	7	91	5.0	7	4
Jacob Latz	Closer	56	66.1	1.91	0.817	10.9	80	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	32	1.1	2	0
Jakob Junis	Setup Man	50	48.8	3.14	1.270	6.8	37	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.0	0	0
Chase Silseth	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	24	15.8	5.13	1.899	14.2	25	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	15	0.2	1	1

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Bailey Ober	Starter	24	123.9	4.29	1.283	6.6	91	5.0	3	1	1	2	1	80	5.0	1	1
Yoendrys Gómez	Closer	55	41.9	4.30	1.623	11.0	51	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	16	1.0	2	1
Jeff Hoffman	Setup Man	20	15.9	2.83	1.321	15.3	27	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
A.J. Minter	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	23	17.7	2.03	1.243	10.7	21	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	16	1.0	0	1
Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	63	64.5	4.74	1.535	9.5	68	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	15	1.0	1	1

Game Summary

MIN wins 5-4

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

All Games Overview

Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres

ARI Recent Form

SD Recent Form

ARI Season Quality

SD Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Atlanta Braves @ Miami Marlins

ATL Recent Form

MIA Recent Form

ATL Season Quality

MIA Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Chicago Cubs @ Boston Red Sox

CHC Recent Form

BOS Recent Form

CHC Season Quality

BOS Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Cincinnati Reds @ Toronto Blue Jays

CIN Recent Form

TOR Recent Form

CIN Season Quality

TOR Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Cleveland Guardians @ Kansas City Royals

CLE Recent Form

KC Recent Form

CLE Season Quality

KC Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Colorado Rockies @ Chicago White Sox

COL Recent Form

CHW Recent Form

COL Season Quality

CHW Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Houston Astros @ Oakland Athletics

HOU Recent Form

OAK Recent Form

HOU Season Quality

OAK Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners