MLB Predictions — September 24, 2026

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
ARI @ COL	6 - 5	6 - 5	ARI	ARI	ARI wins 6-5	56%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CHW @ KC	7 - 5	7 - 5	CHW	CHW	CHW wins 7-5	54%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CIN @ ATL	5 - 7	5 - 7	ATL	ATL	ATL wins 7-5	56%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CLE @ BOS	4 - 2	4 - 2	CLE	CLE	CLE wins 4-2	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
HOU @ OAK	7 - 5	7 - 5	HOU	HOU	HOU wins 7-5	56%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
LAA @ SEA	4 - 5	4 - 5	SEA	SEA	SEA wins 5-4	56%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIA @ CHC	4 - 5	4 - 5	CHC	CHC	CHC wins 5-4	52%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIL @ PHI	5 - 4	5 - 4	MIL	MIL	MIL wins 5-4	54%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
NYM @ TEX	5 - 4	5 - 4	NYM	NYM	NYM wins 5-4	52%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SD @ LAD	4 - 5	4 - 5	LAD	LAD	LAD wins 5-4	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
STL @ PIT	4 - 5	4 - 5	PIT	PIT	PIT wins 5-4	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TB @ NYY	2 - 4	2 - 4	NYY	NYY	NYY wins 4-2	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies

ARI 85-74 (4.51 RPG / 4.45 RA)

6 - 5

COL 57-102 (4.65 RPG / 5.84 RA)

WINNER: ARI wins 6-5 TARGET: ARI 6 - 5 COL (ARI) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ARI	1	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	6	11
COL	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	5	12

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.8

Avg Allowed4.9

Run Diff-1

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak4W

COL Recent Form

Win%0.200

Avg Runs3.7

Avg Allowed5.9

Run Diff-22

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak3L

ARI Season Quality

Record84-74

Win%0.532

Run Diff6

RD/Game0.038

COL Season Quality

Record57-101

Win%0.361

Run Diff-184

RD/Game-1.165

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.1569; margin adjustment: -0.4859; applied: True

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Lars Nootbaar	LF	35	110	25	0.227	3	10	0.325	5	5	2	1	0	0	2	0.400	0.230	0.322	0.355	OK
Ketel Marte	2B	136	547	136	0.249	22	74	0.312	5	5	2	1	1	0	1	0.400	0.244	0.293	0.373	OK
Gabriel Moreno	DH	127	461	143	0.310	15	78	0.387	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.338	0.413	0.515	OK
Geraldo Perdomo	SS	152	545	140	0.257	9	52	0.362	5	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.302	0.386	0.386	OK
Pavin Smith	1B	35	97	17	0.175	3	10	0.250	5	5	1	0	0	0	2	0.200	0.229	0.297	0.411	OK
Nolan Arenado	3B	147	515	129	0.250	28	80	0.325	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.306	0.355	0.545	OK
Corbin Carroll	RF	151	562	136	0.242	22	75	0.333	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.245	0.322	0.492	OK
James McCann	C	43	142	40	0.282	5	24	0.309	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.244	0.270	0.394	OK
Tim Tawa	CF	91	293	69	0.235	11	41	0.290	4	3	1	1	2	1	1	0.333	0.231	0.289	0.411	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	37	11	6	6	3	8	0.297

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jake McCarthy	LF	137	533	157	0.295	15	82	0.336	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.261	0.287	0.409	OK
Connor Norby	2B	37	121	36	0.298	3	17	0.381	5	5	3	1	2	0	1	0.600	0.161	0.248	0.261	OK
Hunter Goodman	DH	134	501	123	0.246	39	83	0.311	5	4	0	1	1	0	2	0.000	0.238	0.297	0.497	OK
TJ Rumfield	1B	149	535	159	0.297	15	69	0.387	5	4	1	1	0	1	3	0.250	0.247	0.322	0.349	OK
Cole Carrigg	CF	86	317	85	0.268	10	48	0.333	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.267	0.317	0.440	OK
Kyle Karros	3B	123	391	101	0.258	12	48	0.355	4	4	3	1	1	0	0	0.750	0.234	0.320	0.364	OK
Brett Sullivan	C	71	212	49	0.231	7	32	0.269	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.220	0.254	0.339	OK
Jordan Beck	RF	58	156	30	0.192	1	11	0.253	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.182	0.248	0.264	OK
Ezequiel Tovar	SS	137	446	98	0.220	12	43	0.266	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.228	0.271	0.392	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	38	12	5	5	1	11	0.316

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Eduardo Rodriguez	Starter	31	179.7	2.95	1.258	7.0	140	5.2	9	3	3	1	7	114	5.2	7	3
Brandyn Garcia	Closer	36	26.8	2.01	0.784	12.1	36	1.0	0	1	1	0	1	22	1.0	1	1
Juan Morillo	Setup Man	48	40.4	2.90	1.114	12.3	55	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13	1.0	2	0
Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	48	40.8	3.09	1.225	7.1	32	1.0	2	0	0	0	0	19	1.0	0	0
Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	50	42.9	3.36	1.235	9.0	43	0.1	1	1	1	0	1	7	0.1	1	1

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tanner Gordon	Starter	23	98.7	6.11	1.581	7.7	84	4.1	7	3	3	1	1	92	4.1	1	3
Jordan Romano	Closer	25	22.5	3.60	1.244	9.6	24	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13	1.0	3	0
Brennan Bernardino	Setup Man	71	51.6	2.97	1.318	8.4	48	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	16	1.0	2	0
Jimmy Herget	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	49	44.7	6.44	1.678	8.7	43	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	24	1.1	0	0
Jaden Hill	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	44	31.2	5.19	1.699	11.0	38	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	20	1.0	1	0
Nick Frasso	Reliever	18	17.8	7.08	1.742	10.6	21	0.1	2	3	3	1	1	14	0.1	1	3

Game Summary

ARI wins 6-5

Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals

CHW 82-77 (4.78 RPG / 4.45 RA)

7 - 5

KC 68-91 (4.23 RPG / 4.94 RA)

WINNER: CHW wins 7-5 TARGET: CHW 7 - 5 KC (CHW) Confidence: 54.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHW	0	0	0	1	1	3	0	1	1	7	10
KC	0	0	0	3	0	2	0	0	0	5	5

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs5.7

Avg Allowed4.9

Run Diff8

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

KC Recent Form

Win%0.200

Avg Runs4.0

Avg Allowed5.7

Run Diff-17

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak1W

CHW Season Quality

Record81-77

Win%0.513

Run Diff44

RD/Game0.278

KC Season Quality

Record68-90

Win%0.430

Run Diff-104

RD/Game-0.658

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.9229; margin adjustment: -0.3876; applied: True

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Sam Antonacci	LF	135	464	125	0.269	8	48	0.364	5	4	1	1	1	1	2	0.250	0.279	0.330	0.396	OK
Kyle Teel	C	35	110	20	0.182	4	23	0.297	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.182	0.281	0.288	OK
Miguel Vargas	3B	155	578	145	0.251	33	90	0.361	5	3	2	1	1	2	1	0.667	0.274	0.380	0.523	OK
Munetaka Murakami	1B	123	437	89	0.204	33	73	0.348	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.205	0.345	0.474	OK
Andrew Benintendi	DH	138	413	100	0.242	14	73	0.301	5	4	0	1	0	1	1	0.000	0.207	0.262	0.327	OK
Tristan Peters	CF	143	423	114	0.270	12	54	0.340	5	5	2	1	0	0	1	0.400	0.204	0.274	0.346	OK
Chase Meidroth	2B	151	561	153	0.273	16	63	0.347	5	4	3	1	2	1	0	0.750	0.285	0.348	0.476	OK
Colson Montgomery	SS	149	555	112	0.202	31	87	0.288	5	3	1	1	0	2	0	0.333	0.177	0.249	0.319	OK
Braden Montgomery	RF	88	310	68	0.219	6	38	0.310	4	4	1	1	3	0	1	0.250	0.245	0.319	0.368	OK
TEAM TOTALS									44	37	10	7	7	7	9	0.270

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Carter Jensen	C	144	514	122	0.237	25	76	0.323	5	5	1	1	3	0	1	0.200	0.267	0.328	0.467	OK
Bobby Witt Jr.	SS	138	539	152	0.282	18	53	0.359	4	3	2	1	0	1	1	0.667	0.304	0.367	0.438	OK
Vinnie Pasquantino	1B	109	401	100	0.249	15	60	0.333	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.290	0.354	0.551	OK
Salvador Perez	DH	147	562	129	0.230	19	74	0.273	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.224	0.250	0.332	OK
Michael Massey	2B	125	410	113	0.276	13	49	0.307	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.243	0.270	0.404	OK
Nick Loftin	3B	115	367	88	0.240	8	45	0.320	4	3	0	1	1	1	2	0.000	0.259	0.321	0.420	OK
John Rave	RF	44	131	29	0.221	6	13	0.297	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.213	0.285	0.377	OK
Kyle Isbel	CF	92	282	60	0.213	6	24	0.258	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.117	0.155	0.177	OK
Isaac Collins	LF	139	428	92	0.215	6	40	0.323	4	4	0	0	0	0	4	0.000	0.147	0.259	0.239	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	32	5	5	5	4	14	0.156

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
David Sandlin	Starter	7	33.4	6.47	1.317	8.9	33	5.0	3	3	3	3	10	96	5.0	10	3
Grant Taylor	Closer	41	51.9	2.60	1.118	13.2	76	1.1	2	2	2	1	0	29	1.1	0	2
Sean Newcomb	Setup Man	53	73.6	3.18	1.277	9.5	78	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	17	1.1	2	0
Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	66	57.4	2.98	1.324	9.3	59	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	42	33.7	4.54	1.780	13.1	49	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	4	0.1	1	0

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Randy Dobnak	Starter	14	70.9	3.17	1.368	6.1	48	5.2	2	2	2	5	6	109	5.2	6	2
Steven Cruz	Closer	56	54.0	4.67	1.370	10.8	65	1.0	3	3	3	1	1	26	1.0	1	2
Nate Pearson	Setup Man	24	23.5	3.45	1.277	9.6	25	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	20	1.0	1	0
Alex Lange	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	57	54.7	6.42	1.645	9.7	59	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	29	1.0	1	1
Connor Thomas	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	15	13.2	3.41	1.439	8.9	13	0.1	2	1	1	0	0	10	0.1	0	1

Game Summary

CHW wins 7-5

Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves

CIN 74-85 (4.12 RPG / 5.12 RA)

5 - 7

ATL 93-67 (4.58 RPG / 3.89 RA)

WINNER: ATL wins 7-5 TARGET: CIN 5 - 7 ATL (ATL) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CIN	0	0	1	0	4	0	0	0	0	5	7
ATL	2	0	0	2	1	2	0	0	x	7	9

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs2.8

Avg Allowed4.2

Run Diff-14

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.8

Avg Allowed4.2

Run Diff6

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

CIN Season Quality

Record73-85

Win%0.462

Run Diff-160

RD/Game-1.013

ATL Season Quality

Record93-65

Win%0.589

Run Diff117

RD/Game0.741

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.445; margin adjustment: 0.6069; applied: True

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Carlos Jorge	CF	12	30	4	0.133	0	0	0.188	5	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.106	0.163	0.200	OK
Elly De La Cruz	SS	136	530	153	0.289	29	76	0.372	5	5	1	1	2	0	1	0.200	0.243	0.340	0.464	OK
Sal Stewart	1B	155	595	158	0.266	31	107	0.332	5	4	1	1	0	1	0	0.250	0.218	0.278	0.355	OK
Tyler Stephenson	C	125	401	99	0.247	15	54	0.327	5	3	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.141	0.224	0.247	OK
JJ Bleday	LF	125	442	98	0.222	23	57	0.329	5	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.166	0.273	0.314	OK
Eugenio Suárez	DH	120	417	88	0.211	25	70	0.307	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.188	0.274	0.399	OK
Héctor Rodríguez	RF	37	128	27	0.211	5	12	0.257	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.186	0.223	0.330	OK
Matt McLain	2B	125	425	80	0.188	15	39	0.274	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.187	0.252	0.315	OK
Ke'Bryan Hayes	3B	73	221	32	0.145	5	9	0.199	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.133	0.174	0.202	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	34	7	5	5	5	4	0.206

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Drake Baldwin	DH	134	527	149	0.283	24	77	0.359	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.307	0.374	0.475	OK
Ronald Acuña Jr.	RF	103	391	102	0.261	20	55	0.353	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.279	0.366	0.528	OK
Matt Olson	1B	157	607	154	0.254	40	88	0.324	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.306	0.359	0.579	OK
Michael Harris II	CF	151	576	168	0.292	26	85	0.317	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.274	0.299	0.453	OK
Mauricio Dubón	SS	149	554	153	0.276	11	71	0.322	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.302	0.345	0.424	OK
Ozzie Albies	2B	157	594	145	0.244	22	72	0.301	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.211	0.265	0.332	OK
Mike Yastrzemski	LF	128	342	79	0.231	12	39	0.308	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.177	0.248	0.375	OK
Austin Riley	3B	154	546	122	0.223	18	70	0.295	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.237	0.291	0.418	OK
Sean Murphy	C	30	101	17	0.168	3	10	0.236	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.136	0.208	0.239	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	33	9	7	7	1	10	0.273

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Brady Singer	Starter	30	150.5	5.80	1.601	7.5	125	4.0	7	5	5	1	7	77	4.0	7	4
Emilio Pagán	Closer	43	40.5	3.56	1.062	9.8	44	1.1	2	2	2	0	0	23	1.1	0	2
Luis Mey	Setup Man	27	30.1	6.28	1.794	14.1	47	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13	1.0	2	0
Brock Burke	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	76	64.0	2.67	1.453	10.4	74	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	21	1.2	1	0

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tyler Mahle	Starter	8	48.4	1.30	0.909	8.2	44	6.0	6	4	4	4	2	118	6.0	2	4
Raisel Iglesias	Closer	58	56.9	2.69	1.125	10.1	64	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Dylan Lee	Setup Man	69	57.6	3.28	1.042	11.9	76	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	16	1.0	0	1
Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	56	66.3	2.44	1.131	12.4	91	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

ATL wins 7-5

Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox

CLE 83-76 (4.11 RPG / 4.09 RA)

4 - 2

BOS 85-74 (4.28 RPG / 3.79 RA)

WINNER: CLE wins 4-2 TARGET: CLE 4 - 2 BOS (CLE) Confidence: 50.6% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CLE	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	2	0	4	5
BOS	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	2	7

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs4.9

Avg Allowed3.4

Run Diff15

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak1L

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs2.7

Avg Allowed2.8

Run Diff-1

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak1W

CLE Season Quality

Record82-76

Win%0.519

Run Diff2

RD/Game0.013

BOS Season Quality

Record85-73

Win%0.538

Run Diff80

RD/Game0.506

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.1714; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Steven Kwan	CF	142	516	146	0.283	3	31	0.378	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.295	0.388	0.360	OK
José Ramírez	3B	118	448	105	0.234	12	51	0.322	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.234	0.307	0.368	OK
Chase DeLauter	RF	125	470	136	0.289	15	64	0.362	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.263	0.332	0.420	OK
Jo Adell	DH	43	162	39	0.241	6	30	0.319	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.239	0.282	0.383	OK
Angel Martínez	LF	103	372	96	0.258	17	57	0.293	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.184	0.207	0.379	OK
David Fry	1B	78	170	33	0.194	7	18	0.294	4	2	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.197	0.281	0.364	OK
Travis Bazzana	2B	117	424	102	0.241	15	55	0.333	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.203	0.289	0.379	OK
Patrick Bailey	C	69	208	50	0.240	7	29	0.303	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.204	0.263	0.298	OK
Brayan Rocchio	SS	146	511	128	0.250	11	64	0.310	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.253	0.303	0.354	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	32	5	4	4	4	7	0.156

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Nick Sogard	1B	60	221	56	0.253	5	18	0.341	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.246	0.321	0.377	OK
Mickey Gasper	DH	63	186	48	0.258	10	24	0.356	4	2	2	0	0	2	0	1.000	0.163	0.247	0.356	OK
Adley Rutschman	C	29	107	23	0.215	4	10	0.270	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.261	0.315	0.419	OK
Wilyer Abreu	RF	150	569	145	0.255	23	73	0.335	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.230	0.306	0.378	OK
Caleb Durbin	3B	144	486	119	0.245	13	61	0.328	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.259	0.325	0.381	OK
Ceddanne Rafaela	CF	131	522	148	0.284	15	67	0.319	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.279	0.303	0.395	OK
Jarren Duran	LF	144	535	110	0.206	20	63	0.264	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.203	0.256	0.319	OK
Trevor Story	SS	61	243	59	0.243	5	29	0.273	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.235	0.266	0.406	OK
Isiah Kiner-Falefa	2B	52	153	37	0.242	2	16	0.314	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.108	0.190	0.160	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	34	7	2	2	3	8	0.206

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Daniel Espino	Starter	12	12.4	5.08	1.532	16.0	22	3.0	6	2	2	1	6	72	3.0	6	2
Cade Smith	Closer	67	67.9	2.12	1.046	13.8	104	2.0	0	0	0	2	1	39	2.0	1	0
Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	65	49.0	3.12	1.388	10.3	56	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	25	2.0	1	0
Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	56	36.3	3.22	1.350	18.1	73	2.0	1	0	0	0	0	28	2.0	0	0

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Ranger Suarez	Starter	27	139.6	3.35	1.232	8.7	135	5.2	2	1	1	3	5	94	5.2	5	1
Aroldis Chapman	Closer	52	51.2	1.41	1.055	12.5	71	1.1	1	1	1	0	0	20	1.1	0	1
Erik Miller	Setup Man	18	17.2	3.66	1.512	14.7	28	1.0	2	2	2	1	1	23	1.0	1	2
Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	54	50.7	1.78	0.927	10.5	59	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

CLE wins 4-2

Houston Astros @ Oakland Athletics

HOU 78-80 (4.43 RPG / 4.77 RA)

7 - 5

OAK 63-95 (4.34 RPG / 5.72 RA)

WINNER: HOU wins 7-5 TARGET: HOU 7 - 5 OAK (HOU) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H
HOU	0	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	0	2	7	11
OAK	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	1	5	12

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.7

Avg Allowed4.8

Run Diff-11

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.9

Avg Allowed7.0

Run Diff-31

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak2W

HOU Season Quality

Record78-80

Win%0.494

Run Diff-53

RD/Game-0.335

OAK Season Quality

Record63-95

Win%0.399

Run Diff-217

RD/Game-1.373

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.8484; margin adjustment: -0.3563; applied: True

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jeremy Peña	SS	106	426	117	0.275	20	51	0.325	5	5	0	1	0	0	2	0.000	0.214	0.251	0.403	OK
Yordan Alvarez	LF	153	547	174	0.318	41	102	0.435	5	4	1	1	2	1	2	0.250	0.340	0.451	0.640	OK
Isaac Paredes	3B	150	543	140	0.258	23	92	0.356	5	5	2	1	1	0	2	0.400	0.269	0.344	0.490	OK
Jose Altuve	2B	130	508	128	0.252	16	46	0.307	5	5	2	1	1	0	2	0.400	0.280	0.320	0.428	OK
Yainer Diaz	DH	88	322	91	0.283	14	42	0.313	5	5	2	1	2	0	0	0.400	0.301	0.325	0.520	OK
Christian Walker	1B	150	553	123	0.222	26	83	0.295	5	5	0	0	0	0	4	0.000	0.209	0.267	0.373	OK
Cam Smith	RF	144	496	103	0.208	20	53	0.272	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.162	0.219	0.307	OK
Lucas Spence	CF	13	40	6	0.150	0	3	0.244	4	4	3	1	1	0	0	0.750	0.163	0.238	0.206	OK
Christian Vázquez	C	82	238	49	0.206	7	25	0.258	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.163	0.213	0.251	OK
TEAM TOTALS									42	41	11	7	7	1	13	0.268

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Henry Bolte	CF	111	398	111	0.279	11	36	0.359	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.284	0.347	0.417	OK
Lawrence Butler	RF	143	456	107	0.235	17	61	0.321	5	4	2	1	0	1	1	0.500	0.261	0.335	0.416	OK
Shea Langeliers	DH	102	410	109	0.266	23	58	0.330	5	5	2	1	1	0	3	0.400	0.266	0.318	0.461	OK
Jeff McNeil	1B	138	464	123	0.265	8	56	0.311	5	4	2	1	3	1	0	0.500	0.252	0.299	0.338	OK
Zack Gelof	3B	103	379	97	0.256	20	52	0.322	5	5	2	1	0	0	1	0.400	0.273	0.321	0.493	OK
Donovan Walton	2B	52	128	30	0.234	6	20	0.376	5	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.248	0.323	0.482	OK
Carlos Cortes	LF	117	333	85	0.255	10	43	0.320	5	5	1	0	0	0	2	0.200	0.249	0.304	0.435	OK
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer	SS	18	63	25	0.397	1	4	0.415	5	5	2	1	1	0	2	0.400	0.169	0.189	0.321	OK
Jonah Heim	C	90	309	61	0.197	12	34	0.251	5	5	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.102	0.161	0.208	OK
TEAM TOTALS									45	42	12	5	5	2	15	0.286

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Peter Lambert	Starter	27	146.8	3.80	1.260	9.0	147	5.2	4	1	1	1	9	99	5.2	9	1
Josh Hader	Closer	44	43.5	0.83	0.713	11.4	55	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Logan VanWey	Setup Man	8	10.1	1.78	0.891	6.2	7	1.1	4	2	2	0	2	29	1.1	2	2
Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	64	54.8	4.27	1.478	13.1	80	1.2	2	1	1	1	2	35	1.0	2	1
Bryan King	Reliever	56	50.4	5.00	1.607	8.2	46	0.1	1	1	1	0	1	7	0.0	1	1

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Mason Barnett	Starter	19	41.9	7.52	1.838	9.0	42	3.2	6	4	4	1	4	76	3.2	4	3
Elvis Alvarado	Closer	53	46.7	4.24	1.413	11.9	62	1.1	2	1	1	0	1	23	1.1	1	1
Hogan Harris	Setup Man	73	57.9	4.04	1.744	13.5	87	1.2	0	0	0	0	3	21	1.2	3	0
Luis Medina	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	57	66.5	3.11	1.414	12.5	92	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	17	0.1	2	0
Scott Blewett	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	22	28.6	3.15	1.434	9.4	30	2.0	3	2	2	0	3	34	2.0	3	2

Game Summary

HOU wins 7-5

Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners

LAA 60-98 (4.02 RPG / 4.61 RA)

4 - 5

SEA 74-84 (4.05 RPG / 4.44 RA)

WINNER: SEA wins 5-4 TARGET: LAA 4 - 5 SEA (SEA) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
LAA	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	7
SEA	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	x	5	5

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.6

Avg Allowed5.4

Run Diff-18

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak3L

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs5.4

Avg Allowed4.1

Run Diff13

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

LAA Season Quality

Record60-98

Win%0.380

Run Diff-93

RD/Game-0.589

SEA Season Quality

Record74-84

Win%0.468

Run Diff-62

RD/Game-0.392

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.4043; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Zach Neto	SS	153	604	144	0.238	26	74	0.326	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.225	0.323	0.375	OK
Mike Trout	DH	139	502	124	0.247	22	54	0.385	4	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.261	0.391	0.443	OK
Wade Meckler	LF	88	285	84	0.295	3	27	0.366	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.287	0.351	0.357	OK
Vaughn Grissom	1B	112	405	99	0.244	13	69	0.309	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.252	0.303	0.418	OK
Moisés Ballesteros	C	42	150	31	0.207	3	12	0.262	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.204	0.266	0.313	OK
Denzer Guzman	3B	76	270	60	0.222	8	33	0.268	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.196	0.246	0.324	OK
Josh Lowe	RF	104	300	62	0.207	12	29	0.268	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.196	0.246	0.347	OK
Christian Moore	2B	34	121	21	0.174	1	12	0.229	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.208	0.251	0.278	OK
Bryce Teodosio	CF	22	55	11	0.200	0	2	0.241	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.194	0.240	0.245	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	34	7	4	4	1	11	0.206

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
J.P. Crawford	SS	112	400	88	0.220	13	38	0.335	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.215	0.301	0.345	OK
Randy Arozarena	LF	150	555	155	0.279	26	76	0.380	4	2	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.270	0.362	0.484	OK
Dominic Canzone	DH	140	461	121	0.262	22	75	0.330	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.287	0.339	0.452	OK
Cal Raleigh	C	122	440	79	0.180	23	68	0.291	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.156	0.261	0.344	OK
Julio Rodríguez	CF	146	583	145	0.249	21	68	0.308	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.320	0.364	0.441	OK
Josh Naylor	1B	148	582	155	0.266	10	55	0.321	3	3	1	1	3	0	0	0.333	0.214	0.264	0.276	OK
Cole Young	2B	155	565	138	0.244	17	65	0.306	3	3	1	1	0	0	1	0.333	0.220	0.265	0.343	OK
Lazaro Montes	RF	16	44	8	0.182	4	9	0.234	3	3	1	1	2	0	1	0.333	0.160	0.216	0.346	OK
Leo Rivas	3B	42	116	17	0.147	0	9	0.270	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0.333	0.191	0.278	0.258	OK
TEAM TOTALS									32	29	5	5	5	3	6	0.172

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Grayson Rodriguez	Starter	19	90.4	6.17	1.593	8.3	83	5.0	5	5	5	3	5	93	5.0	5	5
Ben Joyce	Closer	16	14.4	4.38	1.181	11.2	18	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	25	2.0	1	0
Ryan Watson	Setup Man	17	13.0	2.77	1.385	13.8	20	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Bryan Woo	Starter	29	166.5	3.95	1.087	9.0	167	5.2	3	3	3	1	7	93	5.2	7	3
Andrés Muñoz	Closer	60	53.6	4.20	1.269	14.9	89	1.1	2	1	1	0	1	23	1.1	1	1
José A. Ferrer	Setup Man	71	54.3	4.64	1.657	9.0	54	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	70	54.6	4.45	1.703	11.0	67	1.0	2	0	0	0	2	19	1.0	2	0

Game Summary

SEA wins 5-4

Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs

MIA 78-81 (4.43 RPG / 4.41 RA)

4 - 5

CHC 88-71 (5.29 RPG / 4.37 RA)

WINNER: CHC wins 5-4 TARGET: MIA 4 - 5 CHC (CHC) Confidence: 51.9% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H
MIA	0	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	4	10
CHC	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	1	1	5	8

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.7

Avg Allowed4.6

Run Diff1

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2W

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.7

Avg Allowed4.0

Run Diff7

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2L

MIA Season Quality

Record78-80

Win%0.494

Run Diff4

RD/Game0.025

CHC Season Quality

Record87-71

Win%0.551

Run Diff145

RD/Game0.918

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.6258; margin adjustment: 0.2628; applied: True

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Otto Lopez	SS	154	616	187	0.304	11	71	0.347	5	5	1	1	2	0	1	0.200	0.276	0.318	0.419	OK
Heriberto Hernández	LF	124	432	98	0.227	24	64	0.311	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.212	0.296	0.346	OK
Jakob Marsee	CF	148	506	116	0.229	11	40	0.345	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.238	0.326	0.356	OK
Javier Sanoja	3B	129	445	131	0.294	10	68	0.330	5	5	3	1	0	0	0	0.600	0.307	0.342	0.485	OK
Agustín Ramírez	DH	64	211	50	0.237	5	24	0.314	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.272	0.329	0.429	OK
Esteury Ruiz	RF	86	205	45	0.220	6	16	0.300	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.154	0.215	0.253	OK
Deyvison De Los Santos	1B	12	27	5	0.185	0	0	0.214	4	4	2	1	1	0	2	0.500	0.192	0.202	0.277	OK
Jared Serna	2B	9	17	4	0.235	0	2	0.263	4	3	2	0	0	1	0	0.667	0.228	0.270	0.346	OK
Brian Navarreto	C	22	47	6	0.128	1	3	0.192	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.089	0.128	0.174	OK
TEAM TOTALS									42	40	10	4	4	2	5	0.250

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	156	606	171	0.282	45	107	0.375	5	4	2	1	1	1	1	0.500	0.244	0.319	0.510	OK
Seiya Suzuki	RF	138	530	143	0.270	25	85	0.366	5	3	1	1	2	1	0	0.333	0.263	0.338	0.438	OK
Michael Busch	1B	154	579	140	0.242	19	75	0.353	5	4	1	1	0	1	0	0.250	0.270	0.375	0.439	OK
Michael Conforto	DH	105	259	63	0.243	15	43	0.325	5	4	3	1	1	1	0	0.750	0.275	0.341	0.495	OK
Ian Happ	LF	147	527	117	0.222	24	68	0.326	5	3	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.238	0.324	0.434	OK
Nico Hoerner	2B	153	608	161	0.265	8	71	0.317	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.259	0.306	0.333	OK
Pedro Ramirez	3B	73	228	60	0.263	6	32	0.317	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.266	0.314	0.403	OK
Carson Kelly	C	113	374	98	0.262	10	57	0.340	5	5	0	1	1	0	2	0.000	0.171	0.245	0.252	OK
Dansby Swanson	SS	119	410	89	0.217	17	62	0.303	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0.200	0.236	0.323	0.418	OK
TEAM TOTALS									45	38	8	5	5	6	5	0.211

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tyler Phillips	Starter	36	118.0	3.58	1.364	7.6	99	5.0	4	1	1	5	3	107	5.0	3	1
Calvin Faucher	Closer	68	59.4	3.79	1.465	10.8	71	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Tyler Zuber	Setup Man	44	33.6	6.70	1.696	11.2	42	1.1	3	2	2	0	0	26	0.0	0	2
Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	64	57.1	3.47	1.278	12.8	81	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	24	1.1	1	0
Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	18	18.8	5.27	1.489	7.7	16	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	20	0.2	1	1
Bradley Blalock	Reliever	3	8.0	5.62	1.500	10.1	9	0.1	0	1	1	0	0	4	0.0	0	1

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Matthew Boyd	Starter	21	116.4	4.18	1.254	7.2	93	5.2	4	3	3	1	1	95	5.2	1	3
Jacob Webb	Closer	67	59.0	3.81	1.424	11.0	72	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	20	1.1	1	0
Ryan Zeferjahn	Setup Man	19	13.5	6.00	2.000	12.7	19	1.0	2	0	0	1	1	23	0.1	1	0
Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	30	26.1	3.79	1.226	10.3	30	1.2	3	1	1	0	1	30	1.2	1	1
Caleb Thielbar	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	56	39.8	5.88	1.558	13.3	59	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	4	0.0	1	0

Game Summary

CHC wins 5-4

Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies

MIL 100-59 (5.13 RPG / 3.82 RA)

5 - 4

PHI 87-72 (4.43 RPG / 4.28 RA)

WINNER: MIL wins 5-4 TARGET: MIL 5 - 4 PHI (MIL) Confidence: 53.9% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIL	0	0	1	2	2	0	0	0	0	5	7
PHI	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	4	6

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs4.8

Avg Allowed3.7

Run Diff11

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.0

Avg Allowed4.8

Run Diff-8

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

MIL Season Quality

Record99-59

Win%0.627

Run Diff203

RD/Game1.285

PHI Season Quality

Record87-71

Win%0.551

Run Diff28

RD/Game0.177

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.955; margin adjustment: -0.4011; applied: True

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Garrett Mitchell	CF	133	437	113	0.259	10	58	0.346	5	5	1	1	0	0	0	0.200	0.238	0.310	0.392	OK
Brice Turang	2B	143	554	151	0.273	20	95	0.369	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.293	0.377	0.523	OK
William Contreras	DH	142	551	149	0.270	18	92	0.339	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.281	0.351	0.457	OK
Jake Bauers	1B	134	452	120	0.265	25	81	0.388	4	3	1	1	2	1	0	0.333	0.249	0.376	0.449	OK
Gary Sánchez	C	80	215	45	0.209	11	36	0.347	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.219	0.351	0.385	OK
Luis Lara	RF	52	176	44	0.250	1	25	0.309	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.247	0.302	0.322	OK
Cooper Pratt	SS	66	211	58	0.275	3	32	0.339	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.275	0.343	0.344	OK
Sal Frelick	LF	103	325	76	0.234	4	37	0.293	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.238	0.292	0.317	OK
Joey Ortiz	3B	114	356	94	0.264	9	45	0.322	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.274	0.335	0.411	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	34	7	5	5	3	6	0.206

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Kyle Schwarber	DH	150	564	130	0.230	44	94	0.350	5	4	1	1	0	1	0	0.250	0.158	0.302	0.346	OK
Trea Turner	SS	150	623	151	0.242	19	58	0.297	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.233	0.293	0.331	OK
Bryce Harper	RF	156	556	149	0.268	28	85	0.382	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.243	0.354	0.437	OK
Luis Arraez	2B	44	173	49	0.283	2	20	0.316	4	4	2	1	3	0	0	0.500	0.263	0.301	0.354	OK
Alec Bohm	1B	148	554	141	0.255	15	87	0.319	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.266	0.321	0.387	OK
Bryan De La Cruz	LF	27	68	21	0.309	2	12	0.355	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.280	0.322	0.419	OK
Bryson Stott	3B	150	519	130	0.250	10	65	0.329	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.247	0.327	0.387	OK
J.T. Realmuto	C	117	402	84	0.209	11	50	0.285	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.162	0.234	0.275	OK
Justin Crawford	CF	139	408	106	0.260	3	40	0.308	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.238	0.282	0.351	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	33	6	4	4	4	4	0.182

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Shane Drohan	Starter	31	115.9	4.43	1.381	9.4	121	4.2	3	1	1	2	3	85	4.2	3	1
Trevor Megill	Closer	61	59.5	2.12	0.874	10.3	68	2.1	1	1	1	0	1	32	2.1	1	1
Abner Uribe	Setup Man	60	53.9	2.17	1.113	10.2	61	1.0	1	2	2	2	0	24	1.0	0	2
Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	73	78.1	3.57	1.498	12.9	112	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Andrew Painter	Starter	24	118.1	5.72	1.448	8.2	107	5.0	7	5	5	2	3	92	5.0	3	5
Jhoan Duran	Closer	58	56.4	1.60	0.993	12.9	81	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Jonathan Bowlan	Setup Man	59	51.2	3.69	1.133	12.8	73	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	14	8.0	9.00	2.000	12.4	11	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	16	1.0	1	0
Tim Mayza	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	58	59.5	3.78	1.210	9.5	63	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

MIL wins 5-4

New York Mets @ Texas Rangers

NYM 73-86 (4.29 RPG / 4.51 RA)

5 - 4

TEX 79-80 (4.16 RPG / 4.41 RA)

WINNER: NYM wins 5-4 TARGET: NYM 5 - 4 TEX (NYM) Confidence: 52.1% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYM	1	0	1	0	2	0	1	0	0	5	6
TEX	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	1	0	4	7

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.8

Avg Allowed3.9

Run Diff-1

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2W

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.7

Avg Allowed4.0

Run Diff7

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak3L

NYM Season Quality

Record73-85

Win%0.462

Run Diff-33

RD/Game-0.209

TEX Season Quality

Record78-80

Win%0.494

Run Diff-42

RD/Game-0.266

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.11; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Francisco Lindor	SS	99	399	90	0.226	20	48	0.307	5	4	2	1	3	1	0	0.500	0.204	0.269	0.351	OK
Juan Soto	DH	105	381	106	0.278	27	68	0.393	5	3	2	1	0	2	0	0.667	0.282	0.393	0.530	OK
Bo Bichette	3B	152	610	160	0.262	17	76	0.312	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.235	0.285	0.359	OK
Carson Benge	RF	148	570	155	0.272	19	61	0.337	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.280	0.336	0.436	OK
Brett Baty	1B	131	403	97	0.241	11	56	0.310	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.276	0.356	0.442	OK
Marcus Semien	2B	133	474	105	0.222	15	49	0.288	4	3	0	1	1	1	1	0.000	0.202	0.263	0.338	OK
A.J. Ewing	CF	115	419	109	0.260	10	40	0.330	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.268	0.338	0.377	OK
Luis Torrens	C	82	246	60	0.244	9	41	0.300	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.234	0.275	0.406	OK
Nick Morabito	LF	14	38	7	0.184	0	4	0.279	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.195	0.253	0.240	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	33	6	5	5	6	6	0.182

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Justin Foscue	2B	90	219	59	0.269	11	34	0.321	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.262	0.309	0.437	OK
Corey Seager	SS	97	367	83	0.226	18	47	0.315	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.204	0.275	0.349	OK
Josh Jung	3B	102	395	116	0.294	11	40	0.358	4	4	3	1	1	0	0	0.750	0.269	0.317	0.433	OK
Jake Burger	1B	150	540	125	0.231	27	89	0.304	4	3	1	1	2	0	1	0.333	0.214	0.295	0.397	OK
Brandon Nimmo	RF	151	578	151	0.261	14	61	0.326	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.247	0.304	0.360	OK
Wyatt Langford	LF	106	396	95	0.240	17	43	0.336	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.217	0.335	0.380	OK
Ezequiel Duran	CF	147	525	137	0.261	17	83	0.322	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.236	0.297	0.379	OK
Elias Díaz	C	64	192	45	0.234	5	29	0.260	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.197	0.226	0.338	OK
Danny Jansen	DH	61	183	36	0.197	6	23	0.297	4	2	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.210	0.289	0.357	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	33	7	4	4	3	3	0.212

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Zac Thornton	Starter	14	78.4	3.44	1.161	6.8	59	5.2	5	2	2	0	2	86	5.2	2	2
Kodai Senga	Closer	31	58.3	7.72	1.732	11.6	75	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	20	1.0	0	1
Nathan Lavender	Setup Man	19	15.0	2.40	1.067	15.0	25	1.1	1	1	1	1	0	20	1.1	0	1
Jonathan Pintaro	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	21	28.0	4.82	1.393	9.6	30	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Kumar Rocker	Starter	29	138.8	4.60	1.463	8.7	134	4.2	3	4	4	5	4	88	4.2	4	4
Jacob Latz	Closer	56	66.1	1.91	0.817	10.9	80	1.2	2	1	1	1	1	20	1.2	1	1
Jakob Junis	Setup Man	50	48.8	3.14	1.270	6.8	37	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	21	1.2	0	0
Chase Silseth	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	23	14.8	5.47	2.027	14.0	23	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

NYM wins 5-4

San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers

SD 88-70 (4.4 RPG / 4.16 RA)

4 - 5

LAD 97-61 (4.99 RPG / 3.75 RA)

WINNER: LAD wins 5-4 TARGET: SD 4 - 5 LAD (LAD) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SD	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	4	10
LAD	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	3	x	5	10

SD Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs6.2

Avg Allowed4.4

Run Diff18

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs5.1

Avg Allowed2.7

Run Diff24

Off Trendhot

Def Trendstrong

Streak1L

SD Season Quality

Record88-70

Win%0.557

Run Diff38

RD/Game0.241

LAD Season Quality

Record97-61

Win%0.614

Run Diff196

RD/Game1.241

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.6803; margin adjustment: 0.2857; applied: True

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Fernando Tatis Jr.	RF	154	616	177	0.287	25	80	0.355	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.284	0.333	0.497	OK
Dustin Harris	LF	21	74	24	0.324	0	13	0.362	5	4	3	1	2	1	0	0.750	0.249	0.293	0.348	OK
Manny Machado	3B	154	574	125	0.218	29	87	0.306	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.205	0.282	0.382	OK
Ty France	1B	123	425	127	0.299	21	70	0.362	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.286	0.331	0.465	OK
Jackson Merrill	CF	154	603	152	0.252	26	86	0.300	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.219	0.256	0.370	OK
Xander Bogaerts	SS	150	513	117	0.228	12	56	0.327	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.260	0.349	0.399	OK
Jake Cronenworth	2B	104	365	82	0.225	7	36	0.305	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.217	0.276	0.365	OK
Samad Taylor	DH	44	141	47	0.333	2	18	0.410	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.338	0.417	0.460	OK
Ethan Salas	C	14	32	6	0.188	2	4	0.212	4	4	2	1	2	0	2	0.500	0.215	0.246	0.367	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	37	10	4	4	2	8	0.270

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Shohei Ohtani	DH	130	501	138	0.275	30	78	0.380	5	5	2	1	2	0	0	0.400	0.253	0.358	0.462	OK
Mookie Betts	SS	117	461	119	0.258	22	68	0.322	5	5	3	1	0	0	2	0.600	0.255	0.321	0.475	OK
Freddie Freeman	1B	149	564	164	0.291	16	68	0.367	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.251	0.314	0.356	OK
Teoscar Hernández	LF	119	425	115	0.271	15	62	0.337	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.288	0.343	0.419	OK
Kyle Tucker	RF	146	519	123	0.237	17	70	0.330	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.278	0.367	0.472	OK
Max Muncy	3B	144	475	119	0.251	29	76	0.345	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.249	0.319	0.468	OK
Andy Pages	CF	128	495	136	0.275	21	79	0.342	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.293	0.346	0.454	OK
Hunter Feduccia	C	26	67	15	0.224	1	7	0.342	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.203	0.305	0.297	OK
Tommy Edman	2B	77	276	66	0.239	8	39	0.319	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.214	0.267	0.412	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	34	10	5	5	4	9	0.294

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Nick Pivetta	Starter	7	30.0	3.30	1.000	10.5	35	5.0	5	2	2	3	6	102	5.0	6	2
Mason Miller	Closer	64	64.5	1.26	0.884	17.4	125	1.2	2	0	0	0	1	34	1.2	1	0
Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	65	62.9	2.00	1.113	11.3	79	1.1	3	3	3	1	2	30	1.1	2	3

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tyler Glasnow	Starter	12	67.2	3.48	0.967	11.7	87	6.0	5	2	2	2	7	104	6.0	7	2
Tanner Scott	Closer	67	56.3	3.04	1.101	12.5	78	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Brock Stewart	Setup Man	26	23.1	2.34	1.039	9.4	24	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	70	45.5	3.36	1.363	14.0	71	1.0	4	2	2	0	0	25	1.0	0	2

Game Summary

LAD wins 5-4

St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates

STL 77-82 (4.47 RPG / 4.6 RA)

4 - 5

PIT 81-78 (4.74 RPG / 4.56 RA)

WINNER: PIT wins 5-4 TARGET: STL 4 - 5 PIT (PIT) Confidence: 52.8% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
STL	0	1	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	4	7
PIT	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	3	5	7

STL Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.4

Avg Allowed4.7

Run Diff-13

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.0

Avg Allowed3.9

Run Diff1

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

STL Season Quality

Record77-81

Win%0.487

Run Diff-21

RD/Game-0.133

PIT Season Quality

Record80-78

Win%0.506

Run Diff27

RD/Game0.171

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.3532; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
JJ Wetherholt	2B	132	515	126	0.245	17	50	0.343	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.250	0.325	0.357	OK
Iván Herrera	C	153	581	140	0.241	17	66	0.350	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.238	0.314	0.394	OK
Alec Burleson	1B	153	583	162	0.278	23	109	0.342	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.235	0.288	0.384	OK
Jordan Walker	RF	151	581	158	0.272	26	95	0.331	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.201	0.258	0.324	OK
Leonardo Bernal	DH	20	81	24	0.296	4	18	0.337	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.288	0.328	0.467	OK
Bryan Torres	LF	61	154	36	0.234	3	17	0.302	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.209	0.277	0.290	OK
Thomas Saggese	3B	47	148	36	0.243	4	13	0.303	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.223	0.285	0.334	OK
Nathan Church	CF	125	419	106	0.253	10	49	0.296	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.247	0.282	0.356	OK
Masyn Winn	SS	127	456	107	0.235	5	56	0.307	3	3	1	1	2	0	0	0.333	0.215	0.286	0.296	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	34	7	4	4	1	8	0.206

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Oneil Cruz	CF	93	360	100	0.278	20	67	0.366	5	1	0	1	0	3	0	0.000	0.259	0.331	0.462	OK
Konnor Griffin	SS	75	296	79	0.267	5	31	0.320	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.257	0.298	0.370	OK
Brandon Lowe	2B	144	561	146	0.260	34	94	0.330	5	4	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.269	0.329	0.595	OK
Ryan O'Hearn	DH	101	383	105	0.274	18	73	0.336	5	5	1	1	1	0	0	0.200	0.272	0.332	0.450	OK
Nick Gonzales	3B	140	530	158	0.298	4	58	0.360	5	4	3	1	2	1	1	0.750	0.267	0.308	0.342	OK
Ronny Simon	RF	17	55	15	0.273	1	4	0.310	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.242	0.280	0.386	OK
Spencer Horwitz	1B	110	373	93	0.249	10	47	0.349	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.278	0.365	0.380	OK
Jake Mangum	LF	118	414	116	0.280	5	32	0.333	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.264	0.305	0.369	OK
Henry Davis	C	83	247	41	0.166	10	38	0.257	4	3	1	1	0	0	1	0.333	0.114	0.211	0.257	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	33	7	5	5	6	7	0.212

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Kyle Leahy	Starter	29	136.6	3.69	1.354	8.5	129	5.0	2	2	2	4	6	97	5.0	6	2
Riley O'Brien	Closer	66	61.2	4.26	1.340	9.4	64	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	34	1.0	0	2
Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	68	52.8	4.60	1.515	11.1	65	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	25	1.0	1	0
Justin Bruihl	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	70	62.6	4.46	1.613	7.6	53	1.2	2	1	1	1	0	35	1.0	0	1

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Paul Skenes	Starter	31	165.2	3.98	1.150	10.5	192	5.2	7	4	4	1	7	96	5.2	7	4
Mason Montgomery	Closer	66	58.3	2.62	1.132	15.3	99	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	19	2.0	1	0
Luke Weaver	Setup Man	16	13.6	5.96	1.544	11.9	18	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0

Game Summary

PIT wins 5-4

Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees

TB 96-62 (4.53 RPG / 4.03 RA)

2 - 4

NYY 91-67 (4.59 RPG / 3.7 RA)

WINNER: NYY wins 4-2 TARGET: TB 2 - 4 NYY (NYY) Confidence: 53.1% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TB	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	4
NYY	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	x	4	8

TB Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs4.7

Avg Allowed2.7

Run Diff20

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak1L

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs5.0

Avg Allowed3.2

Run Diff18

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak1W

TB Season Quality

Record96-62

Win%0.608

Run Diff79

RD/Game0.500

NYY Season Quality

Record91-67

Win%0.576

Run Diff141

RD/Game0.892

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.185; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Yandy Díaz	DH	150	598	175	0.293	22	85	0.359	4	4	1	1	2	0	3	0.250	0.210	0.268	0.312	OK
Liam Hicks	C	38	110	32	0.291	4	19	0.392	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.263	0.350	0.365	OK
Junior Caminero	3B	157	598	164	0.274	41	97	0.360	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.234	0.314	0.418	OK
Victor Mesa Jr.	RF	68	221	55	0.249	14	31	0.316	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.233	0.310	0.455	OK
Chandler Simpson	LF	145	563	174	0.309	0	38	0.335	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.311	0.333	0.357	OK
Jonny DeLuca	CF	99	331	88	0.266	9	47	0.296	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.266	0.292	0.419	OK
Richie Palacios	2B	115	336	78	0.232	10	53	0.326	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.231	0.320	0.361	OK
Ryan Vilade	1B	85	230	57	0.248	11	40	0.322	3	2	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.220	0.300	0.381	OK
Taylor Walls	SS	115	358	79	0.221	2	36	0.308	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.233	0.319	0.301	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	31	4	2	2	2	8	0.129

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Paul Goldschmidt	DH	95	336	85	0.253	18	49	0.308	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.255	0.309	0.445	OK
Cody Bellinger	LF	127	478	129	0.270	17	73	0.344	4	4	3	1	0	0	0	0.750	0.241	0.310	0.413	OK
Heliot Ramos	RF	34	103	18	0.175	4	11	0.295	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.234	0.285	0.416	OK
Ben Rice	1B	147	549	146	0.266	40	93	0.367	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.265	0.370	0.559	OK
Amed Rosario	3B	79	215	51	0.237	10	32	0.272	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.165	0.202	0.267	OK
George Lombard Jr.	SS	39	141	34	0.241	6	19	0.292	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.248	0.291	0.432	OK
Anthony Volpe	2B	64	206	50	0.243	2	24	0.322	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.234	0.304	0.324	OK
Austin Wells	C	117	329	61	0.185	13	31	0.286	3	2	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.190	0.299	0.357	OK
José Caballero	CF	122	403	94	0.233	14	50	0.290	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.230	0.288	0.350	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	32	8	4	4	2	6	0.250

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Ian Seymour	Starter	44	120.8	4.25	1.192	11.5	155	5.0	2	0	0	2	5	77	5.0	5	0
Bryan Baker	Closer	62	59.7	1.36	0.905	9.5	63	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	19	1.0	1	1
Kevin Kelly	Setup Man	70	61.7	2.92	1.070	9.0	62	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Cam Booser	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	40	32.1	2.52	0.935	12.1	43	1.0	4	3	3	0	0	17	1.0	0	3

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Cam Schlittler	Starter	32	186.7	1.98	0.927	11.3	234	6.1	3	1	1	2	8	100	6.1	8	1
David Bednar	Closer	63	63.9	2.68	1.080	10.6	75	1.1	1	1	1	0	0	20	1.1	0	1
Brent Headrick	Setup Man	80	61.7	2.63	1.491	14.0	96	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	61	74.9	1.80	1.202	8.2	68	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	4	0.1	0	0

Game Summary

NYY wins 4-2

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

All Games Overview

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies

ARI Recent Form

COL Recent Form

ARI Season Quality

COL Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals

CHW Recent Form

KC Recent Form

CHW Season Quality

KC Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves

CIN Recent Form

ATL Recent Form

CIN Season Quality

ATL Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox

CLE Recent Form

BOS Recent Form

CLE Season Quality

BOS Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Houston Astros @ Oakland Athletics

HOU Recent Form

OAK Recent Form

HOU Season Quality

OAK Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Los Angeles Angels @ Seattle Mariners

LAA Recent Form

SEA Recent Form

LAA Season Quality

SEA Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs

MIA Recent Form

CHC Recent Form

MIA Season Quality

CHC Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies