MLB Predictions — September 23, 2026

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
ARI @ COL	8 - 6	8 - 6	ARI	ARI	ARI wins 8-6	56%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CHW @ KC	7 - 5	7 - 5	CHW	CHW	CHW wins 7-5	56%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CIN @ ATL	5 - 6	5 - 6	ATL	ATL	ATL wins 6-5	56%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CLE @ BOS	5 - 4	5 - 4	CLE	CLE	CLE wins 5-4	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
HOU @ SEA	4 - 5	4 - 5	SEA	SEA	SEA wins 5-4	52%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
LAA @ OAK	5 - 4	5 - 4	LAA	LAA	LAA wins 5-4	54%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIA @ CHC	5 - 6	5 - 6	CHC	CHC	CHC wins 6-5	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIL @ PHI	5 - 3	5 - 3	MIL	MIL	MIL wins 5-3	56%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIN @ SF	4 - 3	4 - 3	MIN	MIN	MIN wins 4-3	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
NYM @ TEX	6 - 3	6 - 3	NYM	NYM	NYM wins 6-3	60%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SD @ LAD	5 - 7	5 - 7	LAD	LAD	LAD wins 7-5	54%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
STL @ PIT	5 - 6	5 - 6	PIT	PIT	PIT wins 6-5	56%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TB @ NYY	5 - 4	5 - 4	TB	TB	TB wins 5-4	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TOR @ BAL	4 - 5	4 - 5	BAL	BAL	BAL wins 5-4	50%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TOR @ BAL	6 - 5	6 - 5	TOR	TOR	TOR wins 6-5	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
WAS @ DET	6 - 4	6 - 4	WAS	WAS	WAS wins 6-4	50%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies

ARI 83-74 (4.46 RPG / 4.43 RA)

8 - 6

COL 57-100 (4.64 RPG / 5.8 RA)

WINNER: ARI wins 8-6 TARGET: ARI 8 - 6 COL (ARI) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ARI	2	0	0	4	0	1	0	0	1	8	8
COL	1	2	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	6	13

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs5.2

Avg Allowed4.7

Run Diff5

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak3W

COL Recent Form

Win%0.200

Avg Runs4.1

Avg Allowed6.5

Run Diff-24

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak2L

ARI Season Quality

Record83-74

Win%0.529

Run Diff4

RD/Game0.025

COL Season Quality

Record57-100

Win%0.363

Run Diff-182

RD/Game-1.159

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.1737; margin adjustment: -0.493; applied: True

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Lars Nootbaar	LF	34	107	25	0.234	3	10	0.333	5	4	1	1	1	1	2	0.250	0.236	0.330	0.361	OK
Ketel Marte	2B	135	543	135	0.249	22	74	0.313	5	4	2	1	3	1	1	0.500	0.244	0.293	0.376	OK
Gabriel Moreno	C	126	457	140	0.306	15	77	0.384	5	5	0	1	0	0	0	0.000	0.318	0.382	0.507	OK
Geraldo Perdomo	SS	151	541	140	0.259	9	52	0.364	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.330	0.413	0.414	OK
Pavin Smith	1B	34	94	16	0.170	3	10	0.248	4	3	0	1	0	1	1	0.000	0.200	0.272	0.378	OK
Nolan Arenado	3B	146	511	128	0.250	28	79	0.325	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.342	0.387	0.646	OK
Corbin Carroll	RF	150	558	135	0.242	22	73	0.333	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.239	0.318	0.490	OK
Jesús Sánchez	DH	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	3	1	1	3	1	0	0.333	0.168	0.211	0.289
Tim Tawa	CF	90	290	68	0.234	10	40	0.289	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.228	0.286	0.383	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	35	8	8	8	5	8	0.229

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jake McCarthy	DH	136	529	156	0.295	15	82	0.336	5	5	4	1	2	0	0	0.800	0.285	0.316	0.485	OK
Cole Carrigg	CF	85	313	85	0.272	10	48	0.337	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	0.250	0.274	0.324	0.449	OK
Hunter Goodman	C	133	498	121	0.243	39	82	0.310	5	4	0	1	1	0	1	0.000	0.229	0.284	0.479	OK
TJ Rumfield	1B	148	531	159	0.299	15	69	0.390	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.259	0.340	0.364	OK
Kyle Karros	3B	122	388	100	0.258	12	48	0.353	5	5	2	1	0	0	0	0.400	0.231	0.312	0.402	OK
Adael Amador	2B	21	67	19	0.284	4	13	0.360	5	5	1	1	2	0	1	0.200	0.273	0.337	0.423	OK
Mickey Moniak	RF	111	394	95	0.241	23	65	0.278	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	0.250	0.232	0.270	0.479	OK
Zac Veen	LF	29	62	14	0.226	2	12	0.304	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.180	0.257	0.300	OK
Ezequiel Tovar	SS	136	442	96	0.217	11	42	0.264	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.199	0.248	0.314	OK
TEAM TOTALS									43	39	13	6	6	3	5	0.333

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Merrill Kelly	Starter	28	153.4	5.10	1.506	6.5	111	5.1	9	5	5	3	3	109	5.1	3	5
Brandyn Garcia	Closer	36	26.8	2.01	0.784	12.1	36	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Juan Morillo	Setup Man	48	40.4	2.90	1.114	12.3	55	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	48	40.8	3.09	1.225	7.1	32	1.0	3	1	1	0	0	22	1.0	0	1
Kevin Ginkel	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	50	42.9	3.36	1.235	9.0	43	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	8	0.2	1	0

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Mason Adams	Starter	5	22.3	5.25	1.704	9.3	23	4.1	6	6	6	4	4	101	4.1	4	5
Jordan Romano	Closer	25	22.5	3.60	1.244	9.6	24	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13	1.0	2	0
Brennan Bernardino	Setup Man	71	51.6	2.97	1.318	8.4	48	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	16	1.0	0	1
Jimmy Herget	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	49	44.7	6.44	1.678	8.7	43	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	23	1.1	1	0
Jaden Hill	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	43	30.2	5.36	1.755	11.0	37	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0
Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	63	59.6	5.89	1.913	9.7	64	0.1	1	1	1	0	0	7	0.1	0	1

Game Summary

ARI wins 8-6

Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals

CHW 81-76 (4.76 RPG / 4.47 RA)

7 - 5

KC 67-90 (4.25 RPG / 4.92 RA)

WINNER: CHW wins 7-5 TARGET: CHW 7 - 5 KC (CHW) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHW	0	0	0	2	3	0	0	0	2	7	9
KC	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	0	5	7

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs5.9

Avg Allowed4.9

Run Diff10

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak3W

KC Recent Form

Win%0.200

Avg Runs3.8

Avg Allowed5.5

Run Diff-17

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak5L

CHW Season Quality

Record81-76

Win%0.516

Run Diff45

RD/Game0.287

KC Season Quality

Record67-90

Win%0.427

Run Diff-105

RD/Game-0.669

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.9908; margin adjustment: -0.4161; applied: True

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Sam Antonacci	LF	134	460	124	0.270	8	48	0.363	5	5	2	1	0	0	0	0.400	0.284	0.335	0.403	OK
Kyle Teel	C	34	107	19	0.178	4	21	0.290	5	5	2	1	0	0	0	0.400	0.165	0.261	0.281	OK
Miguel Vargas	3B	154	574	144	0.251	33	89	0.362	5	4	1	1	0	1	0	0.250	0.273	0.383	0.533	OK
Munetaka Murakami	1B	122	433	88	0.203	33	72	0.348	5	3	0	1	0	2	1	0.000	0.211	0.352	0.497	OK
Andrew Benintendi	DH	137	411	100	0.243	14	73	0.302	5	4	3	1	4	1	1	0.750	0.182	0.239	0.307	OK
Tristan Peters	CF	142	420	114	0.271	12	54	0.340	5	4	1	1	3	1	1	0.250	0.141	0.224	0.275	OK
Chase Meidroth	2B	150	557	151	0.271	16	63	0.346	4	3	0	1	0	1	2	0.000	0.267	0.335	0.477	OK
Colson Montgomery	SS	148	551	112	0.203	31	87	0.290	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.187	0.259	0.331	OK
Braden Montgomery	RF	87	306	65	0.212	6	38	0.305	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.219	0.296	0.344	OK
TEAM TOTALS									42	36	9	7	7	6	7	0.250

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Carter Jensen	C	143	510	119	0.233	25	76	0.320	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.236	0.305	0.459	OK
Bobby Witt Jr.	SS	137	535	151	0.282	18	53	0.360	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.303	0.370	0.432	OK
Jac Caglianone	RF	138	492	138	0.280	23	71	0.333	5	4	1	1	2	1	0	0.250	0.289	0.334	0.430	OK
Maikel Garcia	3B	77	297	77	0.259	3	35	0.317	5	4	1	1	0	1	0	0.250	0.225	0.292	0.341	OK
Vinnie Pasquantino	1B	108	397	99	0.249	15	59	0.334	5	4	1	1	0	1	0	0.250	0.292	0.361	0.563	OK
Salvador Perez	DH	146	558	128	0.229	19	74	0.273	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.216	0.243	0.320	OK
Michael Massey	2B	124	406	111	0.273	13	49	0.306	4	3	1	1	2	1	2	0.333	0.226	0.255	0.386	OK
John Rave	CF	43	127	29	0.228	6	13	0.305	4	1	0	0	0	3	1	0.000	0.227	0.300	0.436	OK
Isaac Collins	LF	138	425	92	0.216	6	40	0.324	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.111	0.223	0.197	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	34	7	5	5	7	8	0.206

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Bryan Hudson	Starter	66	57.4	2.98	1.324	9.3	59	5.0	4	2	2	6	5	109	5.0	5	2
Grant Taylor	Closer	41	51.9	2.60	1.118	13.2	76	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	21	1.2	1	0
Sean Newcomb	Setup Man	53	73.6	3.18	1.277	9.5	78	1.1	2	2	2	0	2	23	1.1	2	2
Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	42	33.7	4.54	1.780	13.1	49	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	20	1.0	0	1

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Seth Lugo	Starter	31	166.2	5.14	1.486	7.1	131	4.2	4	4	4	6	6	97	4.2	6	3
Steven Cruz	Closer	55	53.0	4.75	1.377	10.7	63	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Nate Pearson	Setup Man	24	23.5	3.45	1.277	9.6	25	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
Alex Lange	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	57	54.7	6.42	1.645	9.7	59	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Connor Thomas	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	14	11.2	4.02	1.607	9.6	12	1.0	4	3	3	0	1	25	1.0	1	3

Game Summary

CHW wins 7-5

Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves

CIN 73-84 (4.11 RPG / 5.13 RA)

5 - 6

ATL 92-66 (4.58 RPG / 3.88 RA)

WINNER: ATL wins 6-5 TARGET: CIN 5 - 6 ATL (ATL) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CIN	0	1	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	6
ATL	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	1	2	6	11

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.5

Avg Allowed5.2

Run Diff-17

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak1W

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs5.1

Avg Allowed4.5

Run Diff6

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

CIN Season Quality

Record73-84

Win%0.465

Run Diff-159

RD/Game-1.013

ATL Season Quality

Record92-65

Win%0.586

Run Diff116

RD/Game0.739

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.4455; margin adjustment: 0.6071; applied: True

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Juan Brito	RF	12	40	13	0.325	2	10	0.349	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.241	0.284	0.366	OK
Elly De La Cruz	SS	135	526	153	0.291	29	76	0.374	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.287	0.383	0.550	OK
Sal Stewart	1B	154	591	158	0.267	31	107	0.334	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.240	0.299	0.395	OK
Dane Myers	CF	99	279	71	0.254	7	26	0.335	4	4	1	1	3	0	1	0.250	0.219	0.277	0.361	OK
Eugenio Suárez	DH	119	414	88	0.213	25	70	0.307	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.194	0.279	0.417	OK
Matt McLain	2B	124	421	78	0.185	15	39	0.272	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.166	0.233	0.280	OK
Oswaldo Cabrera	LF	1	3	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.047	0.059	0.077
Will Banfield	C	7	15	3	0.200	0	0	0.200	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.188	0.199	0.306	OK
Ke'Bryan Hayes	3B	72	218	32	0.147	5	9	0.202	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.092	0.140	0.145	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	33	6	5	5	2	5	0.182

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Drake Baldwin	C	133	523	149	0.285	24	77	0.361	5	4	2	1	4	0	1	0.500	0.323	0.382	0.473	OK
Mauricio Dubón	LF	148	550	151	0.275	11	70	0.320	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.294	0.329	0.415	OK
Matt Olson	1B	156	603	152	0.252	39	87	0.323	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.281	0.337	0.500	OK
Ozzie Albies	2B	156	591	144	0.244	22	72	0.299	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.204	0.260	0.321	OK
Michael Harris II	CF	150	572	168	0.294	26	85	0.319	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.302	0.327	0.482	OK
Austin Riley	3B	153	542	120	0.221	17	69	0.294	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.217	0.274	0.347	OK
Sean Murphy	DH	29	98	17	0.173	3	10	0.243	4	3	3	1	1	1	0	1.000	0.168	0.238	0.291	OK
Brewer Hicklen	RF	11	33	9	0.273	0	3	0.368	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.132	0.239	0.306	OK
Ha-Seong Kim	SS	42	121	14	0.116	0	9	0.207	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.110	0.197	0.142	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	34	11	6	6	2	8	0.324

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Andrew Abbott	Starter	31	155.5	4.80	1.505	7.2	125	4.1	5	1	1	1	8	81	4.1	8	1
Emilio Pagán	Closer	43	40.5	3.56	1.062	9.8	44	1.1	2	2	2	1	0	27	1.1	0	2
Luis Mey	Setup Man	26	30.0	6.30	1.767	14.1	47	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	19	1.0	0	1
Brock Burke	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	76	64.0	2.67	1.453	10.4	74	1.1	2	2	2	0	0	23	1.1	0	2

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Chris Sale	Starter	26	155.6	2.20	1.003	11.0	190	6.1	3	2	2	2	5	102	6.1	5	2
Raisel Iglesias	Closer	57	55.9	2.74	1.145	9.8	61	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	19	1.0	0	2
Dylan Lee	Setup Man	68	56.6	3.34	1.060	12.1	76	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	16	1.0	0	1
Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	56	66.3	2.44	1.131	12.4	91	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	8	0.2	0	0

Game Summary

ATL wins 6-5

Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox

CLE 82-76 (4.13 RPG / 4.11 RA)

5 - 4

BOS 85-73 (4.31 RPG / 3.8 RA)

WINNER: CLE wins 5-4 TARGET: CLE 5 - 4 BOS (CLE) Confidence: 50.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H
CLE	1	0	0	2	2	0	0	0	0	0	5	8
BOS	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	6

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs5.4

Avg Allowed3.5

Run Diff19

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak6W

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs2.8

Avg Allowed3.1

Run Diff-3

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak3L

CLE Season Quality

Record82-75

Win%0.522

Run Diff3

RD/Game0.019

BOS Season Quality

Record84-73

Win%0.535

Run Diff79

RD/Game0.503

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.0583; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Steven Kwan	LF	141	512	144	0.281	3	31	0.378	5	4	1	1	1	1	1	0.250	0.286	0.373	0.350	OK
José Ramírez	3B	117	445	105	0.236	12	51	0.323	5	5	2	1	2	0	1	0.400	0.262	0.328	0.400	OK
Chase DeLauter	DH	124	466	136	0.292	15	64	0.365	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.289	0.367	0.460	OK
Jo Adell	RF	42	159	39	0.245	6	30	0.320	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.246	0.281	0.366	OK
Travis Bazzana	2B	116	422	102	0.242	15	55	0.333	5	4	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.224	0.301	0.402	OK
Nathaniel Lowe	1B	36	119	27	0.227	5	22	0.281	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.179	0.245	0.322	OK
Patrick Bailey	C	68	205	49	0.239	7	29	0.303	4	4	1	1	2	0	2	0.250	0.209	0.267	0.309	OK
Petey Halpin	CF	62	167	36	0.216	4	13	0.254	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.158	0.194	0.258	OK
Brayan Rocchio	SS	145	508	127	0.250	11	64	0.310	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.244	0.298	0.349	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	38	8	5	5	3	7	0.211

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Roman Anthony	LF	51	200	47	0.235	5	15	0.329	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.230	0.301	0.378	OK
Nick Sogard	1B	59	217	54	0.249	5	18	0.339	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.230	0.307	0.363	OK
Jahmai Jones	DH	29	53	18	0.340	4	9	0.397	5	5	1	1	0	0	2	0.200	0.147	0.210	0.308	OK
Wilyer Abreu	RF	149	565	143	0.253	23	73	0.334	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.209	0.291	0.366	OK
Adley Rutschman	C	28	103	22	0.214	4	10	0.270	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.255	0.310	0.417	OK
Ceddanne Rafaela	CF	130	521	147	0.282	15	67	0.318	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.249	0.272	0.353	OK
Caleb Durbin	3B	143	482	119	0.247	13	61	0.330	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.277	0.346	0.404	OK
Trevor Story	SS	60	239	59	0.247	5	29	0.278	4	3	3	1	3	1	0	1.000	0.247	0.277	0.439	OK
Andruw Monasterio	2B	97	296	70	0.236	6	39	0.297	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.199	0.259	0.322	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	36	6	4	4	4	8	0.167

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Foster Griffin	Starter	8	37.1	5.82	1.617	8.5	35	5.1	4	3	3	3	6	101	5.1	6	4
Cade Smith	Closer	67	67.9	2.12	1.046	13.8	104	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0
Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	65	49.0	3.12	1.388	10.3	56	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	1.0	0	0
Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	56	36.3	3.22	1.350	18.1	73	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	21	1.1	1	0
Tim Herrin	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	65	42.4	3.82	1.651	10.8	51	0.2	2	1	1	0	0	14	0.0	0	0

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Sonny Gray	Starter	28	161.6	2.84	1.170	8.1	146	6.0	6	3	3	3	6	118	6.0	6	3
Aroldis Chapman	Closer	51	50.2	1.43	1.076	12.2	68	1.1	0	1	1	0	0	17	1.1	0	1
Erik Miller	Setup Man	18	17.2	3.66	1.512	14.7	28	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	16	1.0	1	1
Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	53	49.7	1.81	0.905	10.7	59	1.2	1	0	0	0	0	28	0.2	0	0

Game Summary

CLE wins 5-4

Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners

HOU 78-79 (4.43 RPG / 4.76 RA)

4 - 5

SEA 73-84 (4.04 RPG / 4.44 RA)

WINNER: SEA wins 5-4 TARGET: HOU 4 - 5 SEA (SEA) Confidence: 51.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	R	H
HOU	0	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	10
SEA	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	5	11

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.3

Avg Allowed4.5

Run Diff-12

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs5.3

Avg Allowed4.2

Run Diff11

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

HOU Season Quality

Record78-79

Win%0.497

Run Diff-52

RD/Game-0.331

SEA Season Quality

Record73-84

Win%0.465

Run Diff-63

RD/Game-0.401

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.083; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jose Altuve	2B	129	503	126	0.250	16	45	0.307	6	6	1	0	0	0	1	0.167	0.272	0.311	0.409	OK
Yordan Alvarez	DH	152	543	172	0.317	41	102	0.434	6	6	2	1	1	0	2	0.333	0.330	0.430	0.660	OK
Isaac Paredes	3B	149	539	139	0.258	23	91	0.358	6	5	1	1	0	1	2	0.200	0.283	0.360	0.530	OK
Yainer Diaz	C	87	317	89	0.281	13	39	0.311	6	5	1	1	0	1	1	0.200	0.294	0.316	0.455	OK
Christian Walker	1B	149	549	122	0.222	26	83	0.296	6	5	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.202	0.258	0.378	OK
Taylor Trammell	LF	87	245	49	0.200	8	22	0.287	5	5	1	0	0	0	0	0.200	0.171	0.267	0.334	OK
Cam Smith	RF	143	494	103	0.209	20	53	0.272	5	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.179	0.227	0.334	OK
Lucas Spence	CF	12	37	6	0.162	0	3	0.244	5	5	3	1	3	0	0	0.600	0.168	0.229	0.213	OK
Nick Allen	SS	58	140	38	0.271	3	14	0.318	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.177	0.233	0.292	OK
TEAM TOTALS									50	45	10	4	4	4	9	0.222

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
J.P. Crawford	SS	111	395	87	0.220	13	38	0.337	6	5	2	1	0	1	2	0.400	0.218	0.309	0.360	OK
Randy Arozarena	LF	149	552	154	0.279	26	76	0.379	6	6	2	0	0	0	2	0.333	0.264	0.353	0.476	OK
Dominic Canzone	DH	139	456	119	0.261	22	72	0.329	6	6	1	1	1	0	3	0.167	0.293	0.353	0.476	OK
Cal Raleigh	C	121	436	79	0.181	23	68	0.292	6	5	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.177	0.283	0.370	OK
Julio Rodríguez	CF	145	579	142	0.245	21	66	0.304	5	5	1	0	0	0	2	0.200	0.279	0.324	0.398	OK
Josh Naylor	1B	147	578	154	0.266	10	54	0.321	5	5	2	1	2	0	1	0.400	0.210	0.253	0.277	OK
Cole Young	2B	154	561	138	0.246	17	65	0.308	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.223	0.269	0.343	OK
Lazaro Montes	RF	15	42	8	0.190	4	9	0.227	5	5	1	1	1	0	0	0.200	0.176	0.216	0.407	OK
Weston Wilson	3B	42	116	24	0.207	3	10	0.276	5	5	1	1	1	0	0	0.200	0.167	0.241	0.233	OK
TEAM TOTALS									49	47	11	5	5	2	12	0.234

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Ethan Pecko	Starter	6	26.8	4.03	1.194	6.4	19	5.0	4	0	0	2	8	95	5.0	8	0
Josh Hader	Closer	43	42.4	0.64	0.590	11.7	55	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0
Logan VanWey	Setup Man	7	10.0	1.80	0.900	6.3	7	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	20	1.1	0	0
Bryan Abreu	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	63	53.8	4.35	1.487	13.2	79	1.1	4	2	2	0	2	29	0.0	2	2
AJ Blubaugh	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	62	87.5	3.91	1.326	9.5	92	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	16	0.1	0	1
Ronel Blanco	Reliever	7	29.8	7.55	1.510	7.9	26	1.0	0	1	1	0	1	13	0.0	1	1
Bryan King	Reliever	56	50.4	5.00	1.607	8.2	46	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	19	0.0	0	1

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
George Kirby	Starter	29	165.7	4.35	1.418	7.8	143	6.0	6	2	2	1	8	110	6.0	8	2
Andrés Muñoz	Closer	60	53.6	4.20	1.269	14.9	89	2.0	2	2	2	2	0	41	2.0	0	2
José A. Ferrer	Setup Man	70	53.3	4.73	1.689	8.8	52	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	21	0.0	0	0
Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	70	54.6	4.45	1.703	11.0	67	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	19	1.0	1	0
Gabe Speier	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	52	37.0	3.65	1.324	10.2	42	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	21	0.0	0	0

Game Summary

SEA wins 5-4

Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland Athletics

LAA 60-97 (4.03 RPG / 4.59 RA)

5 - 4

OAK 62-95 (4.32 RPG / 5.73 RA)

WINNER: LAA wins 5-4 TARGET: LAA 5 - 4 OAK (LAA) Confidence: 54.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
LAA	0	1	0	1	1	1	1	0	0	5	13
OAK	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	4	6

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.8

Avg Allowed5.3

Run Diff-15

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak2L

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.8

Avg Allowed7.2

Run Diff-34

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak1W

LAA Season Quality

Record60-97

Win%0.382

Run Diff-89

RD/Game-0.567

OAK Season Quality

Record62-95

Win%0.395

Run Diff-221

RD/Game-1.408

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.6489; margin adjustment: -0.2725; applied: True

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Zach Neto	SS	152	602	143	0.238	26	74	0.324	5	5	2	1	0	0	2	0.400	0.199	0.283	0.353	OK
Mike Trout	DH	138	498	122	0.245	21	53	0.384	5	5	2	0	0	0	1	0.400	0.259	0.397	0.420	OK
Vaughn Grissom	1B	111	401	97	0.242	12	67	0.307	5	5	1	1	1	0	2	0.200	0.251	0.304	0.406	OK
Denzer Guzman	3B	75	266	60	0.226	8	33	0.272	5	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.212	0.265	0.345	OK
Wade Meckler	RF	87	281	82	0.292	3	27	0.364	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.293	0.358	0.367	OK
Jose Siri	LF	85	219	52	0.237	9	30	0.285	5	5	3	1	2	0	1	0.600	0.289	0.329	0.467	OK
Christian Moore	2B	33	117	21	0.179	1	12	0.236	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.239	0.282	0.315	OK
Bryce Teodosio	CF	21	53	10	0.189	0	2	0.232	4	4	3	1	1	0	0	0.750	0.189	0.236	0.244	OK
Tyler Heineman	C	34	95	18	0.189	0	3	0.230	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.186	0.207	0.244	OK
TEAM TOTALS									42	40	13	5	5	1	11	0.325

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Henry Bolte	CF	110	393	107	0.272	11	35	0.354	5	5	1	1	2	0	1	0.200	0.261	0.329	0.379	OK
Lawrence Butler	RF	142	451	105	0.233	17	60	0.320	5	3	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.259	0.337	0.467	OK
Shea Langeliers	DH	101	405	108	0.267	23	56	0.332	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.270	0.323	0.460	OK
Jeff McNeil	1B	137	460	122	0.265	8	56	0.310	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.249	0.292	0.339	OK
Zack Gelof	3B	102	376	95	0.253	20	52	0.318	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.250	0.299	0.477	OK
Donovan Walton	2B	51	126	29	0.230	5	17	0.370	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.169	0.244	0.334	OK
Carlos Cortes	LF	116	331	85	0.257	10	43	0.322	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.250	0.304	0.440	OK
Alika Williams	SS	74	211	56	0.265	4	15	0.299	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.267	0.300	0.425	OK
Brian Serven	C	23	76	14	0.184	5	14	0.225	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.112	0.150	0.217	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	33	6	4	4	4	8	0.182

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Walbert Ureña	Starter	28	142.0	2.79	1.225	8.9	140	6.0	3	3	3	4	6	113	6.0	6	3
Ben Joyce	Closer	16	14.4	4.38	1.181	11.2	18	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	17	1.0	1	0
Ryan Watson	Setup Man	17	13.0	2.77	1.385	13.8	20	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Tayler Saucedo	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	26	15.3	3.53	1.373	14.1	24	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	11	0.2	0	0
José Fermin	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	50	45.0	3.60	1.489	12.2	61	0.1	1	1	1	0	1	7	0.1	1	1

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jeffrey Springs	Starter	28	133.9	6.39	1.516	7.3	109	4.2	8	4	4	1	6	99	4.2	6	4
Seth Johnson	Reliever	9	13.5	4.67	1.481	11.3	17	1.1	3	0	0	0	2	35	1.1	2	0
Chris Roycroft	Reliever	7	10.5	1.71	1.524	6.0	7	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	19	1.0	1	1
Hogan Harris	Reliever	72	56.9	4.11	1.757	13.6	86	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Luis Medina	Reliever	56	65.5	3.16	1.405	12.5	91	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

LAA wins 5-4

Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs

MIA 77-80 (4.46 RPG / 4.44 RA)

5 - 6

CHC 87-70 (5.33 RPG / 4.4 RA)

WINNER: CHC wins 6-5 TARGET: MIA 5 - 6 CHC (CHC) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIA	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	1	2	5	8
CHC	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	x	6	7

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.6

Avg Allowed5.0

Run Diff-4

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs5.7

Avg Allowed3.9

Run Diff18

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

MIA Season Quality

Record77-80

Win%0.490

Run Diff3

RD/Game0.019

CHC Season Quality

Record87-70

Win%0.554

Run Diff146

RD/Game0.930

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.7969; margin adjustment: 0.3347; applied: True

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Otto Lopez	SS	153	612	186	0.304	11	71	0.348	5	5	2	1	0	0	0	0.400	0.270	0.311	0.408	OK
Kyle Stowers	1B	119	442	106	0.240	20	63	0.332	4	4	3	1	2	0	0	0.750	0.238	0.319	0.445	OK
Heriberto Hernández	LF	123	430	98	0.228	24	64	0.309	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.232	0.297	0.369	OK
Griffin Conine	RF	85	268	68	0.254	17	39	0.338	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.231	0.289	0.419	OK
Javier Sanoja	2B	128	441	129	0.293	10	68	0.328	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.289	0.329	0.464	OK
Jakob Marsee	CF	147	502	116	0.231	11	40	0.347	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.252	0.353	0.414	OK
Agustín Ramírez	DH	63	207	49	0.237	5	24	0.315	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.273	0.332	0.432	OK
Graham Pauley	3B	51	136	28	0.206	4	25	0.253	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.134	0.182	0.297	OK
Joe Mack	C	99	297	70	0.236	13	49	0.283	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.195	0.237	0.298	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	35	8	5	5	2	9	0.229

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	155	603	171	0.284	45	107	0.375	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.307	0.371	0.604	OK
Seiya Suzuki	RF	137	526	142	0.270	25	85	0.367	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.257	0.328	0.429	OK
Michael Busch	1B	153	575	138	0.240	19	75	0.352	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.244	0.354	0.425	OK
Michael Conforto	DH	104	255	62	0.243	15	43	0.326	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.264	0.336	0.495	OK
Ian Happ	LF	146	523	116	0.222	24	68	0.327	4	3	0	1	1	1	0	0.000	0.235	0.319	0.421	OK
Nico Hoerner	2B	152	605	160	0.264	8	71	0.316	4	2	0	1	1	1	1	0.000	0.244	0.292	0.319	OK
Pedro Ramirez	3B	72	224	59	0.263	6	32	0.318	4	4	3	1	3	0	0	0.750	0.267	0.318	0.408	OK
Dansby Swanson	SS	118	407	88	0.216	17	60	0.301	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.224	0.310	0.409	OK
Miguel Amaya	C	68	205	48	0.234	6	26	0.325	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.219	0.279	0.379	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	30	7	6	6	6	7	0.233

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Ryan Gusto	Starter	22	79.4	4.31	1.499	7.8	69	4.2	3	3	3	3	3	92	4.2	3	4
Calvin Faucher	Closer	67	58.4	3.85	1.490	10.9	71	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	20	1.0	1	1
Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	63	56.9	3.48	1.265	12.5	79	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	18	18.8	5.27	1.489	7.7	16	1.1	3	3	3	2	2	34	1.1	2	1

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Kevin Gausman	Starter	8	43.5	5.17	1.264	10.3	50	5.2	4	2	2	0	5	94	5.2	5	2
Jacob Webb	Closer	66	57.9	3.89	1.416	10.9	70	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13	1.0	3	0
Ryan Zeferjahn	Setup Man	19	13.5	6.00	2.000	12.7	19	1.0	2	1	1	2	1	27	1.0	1	1
Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	30	26.1	3.79	1.226	10.3	30	1.1	2	2	2	0	0	23	1.1	0	2

Game Summary

CHC wins 6-5

Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies

MIL 99-59 (5.13 RPG / 3.84 RA)

5 - 3

PHI 87-71 (4.46 RPG / 4.28 RA)

WINNER: MIL wins 5-3 TARGET: MIL 5 - 3 PHI (MIL) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIL	2	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	5	11
PHI	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	3	2

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs6.4

Avg Allowed3.6

Run Diff28

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.4

Avg Allowed5.0

Run Diff-6

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2W

MIL Season Quality

Record98-59

Win%0.624

Run Diff200

RD/Game1.274

PHI Season Quality

Record87-70

Win%0.554

Run Diff31

RD/Game0.197

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.0088; margin adjustment: -0.4237; applied: True

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Garrett Mitchell	CF	132	433	113	0.261	10	58	0.349	5	4	1	1	2	1	2	0.250	0.259	0.330	0.409	OK
Jackson Chourio	LF	120	502	144	0.287	24	70	0.347	5	5	1	1	1	0	0	0.200	0.251	0.316	0.431	OK
Brice Turang	2B	142	550	149	0.271	19	94	0.368	5	5	3	1	0	0	2	0.600	0.260	0.350	0.411	OK
William Contreras	C	141	547	148	0.271	18	90	0.340	5	4	3	1	1	1	1	0.750	0.269	0.336	0.463	OK
Jake Bauers	1B	133	448	120	0.268	25	81	0.391	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.271	0.400	0.475	OK
Joey Ortiz	SS	113	352	93	0.264	9	45	0.323	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.270	0.329	0.398	OK
Christian Yelich	DH	110	415	95	0.229	11	55	0.311	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.213	0.290	0.328	OK
Sal Frelick	RF	102	322	76	0.236	4	37	0.295	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.251	0.306	0.334	OK
David Hamilton	3B	108	326	78	0.239	4	26	0.301	4	3	1	0	0	1	2	0.333	0.235	0.288	0.314	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	38	11	5	5	3	11	0.289

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Kyle Schwarber	DH	149	561	130	0.232	44	94	0.350	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.159	0.293	0.354	OK
Trea Turner	SS	149	618	150	0.243	19	58	0.298	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.235	0.304	0.336	OK
Bryce Harper	RF	155	553	149	0.269	28	85	0.382	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.259	0.366	0.456	OK
Luis Arraez	2B	43	169	49	0.290	2	20	0.322	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.274	0.314	0.365	OK
Alec Bohm	1B	147	550	140	0.255	15	87	0.319	4	3	0	1	0	1	2	0.000	0.264	0.321	0.386	OK
Bryson Stott	3B	149	516	128	0.248	10	65	0.326	3	3	1	1	2	0	0	0.333	0.242	0.319	0.371	OK
Brandon Marsh	LF	147	511	134	0.262	18	61	0.306	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.232	0.271	0.394	OK
J.T. Realmuto	C	116	398	84	0.211	11	49	0.287	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.179	0.254	0.289	OK
Justin Crawford	CF	138	406	105	0.259	3	40	0.307	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.234	0.281	0.356	OK
TEAM TOTALS									32	29	2	3	3	2	8	0.069

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Logan Henderson	Starter	17	92.4	2.53	0.823	10.4	107	6.0	2	3	3	2	7	90	6.0	7	3
Trevor Megill	Closer	60	58.5	2.15	0.889	10.3	67	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Abner Uribe	Setup Man	59	52.9	2.21	1.115	10.2	60	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	73	78.1	3.57	1.498	12.9	112	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	10	1.0	0	0

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Aaron Nola	Starter	31	164.6	4.59	1.379	9.2	169	6.0	6	3	3	2	7	114	6.0	7	3
Jhoan Duran	Closer	58	56.4	1.60	0.993	12.9	81	1.1	0	0	0	1	2	25	1.1	2	0
Jonathan Bowlan	Setup Man	59	51.2	3.69	1.133	12.8	73	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	14	8.0	9.00	2.000	12.4	11	0.2	4	2	2	0	1	20	0.2	1	2

Game Summary

MIL wins 5-3

Minnesota Twins @ San Francisco Giants

MIN 75-84 (4.53 RPG / 4.94 RA)

4 - 3

SF 66-94 (4.2 RPG / 4.69 RA)

WINNER: MIN wins 4-3 TARGET: MIN 4 - 3 SF (MIN) Confidence: 51.1% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	1	4	6
SF	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	4

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.6

Avg Allowed4.7

Run Diff-11

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

SF Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs4.1

Avg Allowed4.9

Run Diff-8

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

MIN Season Quality

Record74-84

Win%0.468

Run Diff-66

RD/Game-0.418

SF Season Quality

Record65-93

Win%0.411

Run Diff-82

RD/Game-0.519

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.1368; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Luke Keaschall	RF	147	515	142	0.276	9	47	0.366	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.275	0.339	0.387	OK
Brooks Lee	3B	149	569	145	0.255	24	82	0.301	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.299	0.332	0.456	OK
Josh Bell	DH	150	555	142	0.256	20	91	0.318	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.259	0.310	0.382	OK
Ryan Jeffers	C	85	306	77	0.252	14	55	0.344	4	2	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.203	0.280	0.345	OK
Alan Roden	LF	29	74	21	0.284	1	14	0.360	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.299	0.377	0.417	OK
Royce Lewis	2B	121	447	101	0.226	14	54	0.288	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.222	0.274	0.357	OK
Emmanuel Rodriguez	CF	11	38	7	0.184	2	5	0.225	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.188	0.231	0.417	OK
Aaron Sabato	1B	1	3	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.274	0.284	0.393
Ben Ross	SS	8	19	3	0.158	0	1	0.158	4	3	1	1	2	1	1	0.333	0.213	0.224	0.380	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	33	6	4	4	4	10	0.182

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jonah Cox	2B	47	135	37	0.274	4	16	0.319	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.257	0.306	0.385	OK
Turner Hill	CF	29	96	22	0.229	1	15	0.319	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.209	0.284	0.326	OK
Victor Bericoto	LF	34	99	24	0.242	5	15	0.265	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.239	0.270	0.429	OK
Bo Davidson	RF	2	7	2	0.286	0	0	0.375	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.277	0.360	0.306	OK
Andrew Knizner	C	24	64	15	0.234	2	4	0.310	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.204	0.248	0.316	OK
Brett Harris	1B	10	26	6	0.231	0	2	0.310	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.201	0.267	0.280	OK
Marcelo Mayer	DH	1	4	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.207	0.259	0.303
Shay Whitcomb	3B	23	79	16	0.203	2	6	0.212	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.193	0.209	0.317	OK
Christian Koss	SS	61	187	44	0.235	4	12	0.274	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.214	0.245	0.292	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	31	4	3	3	1	5	0.129

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Connor Prielipp	Starter	23	118.7	5.00	1.314	9.5	125	5.2	2	3	3	1	4	81	5.2	4	3
Yoendrys Gómez	Closer	54	40.7	4.42	1.671	10.8	49	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Jeff Hoffman	Setup Man	20	15.9	2.83	1.321	15.3	27	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
A.J. Minter	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	22	16.7	2.16	1.317	11.3	21	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Cesar Perdomo	Starter	4	18.4	3.91	1.576	5.9	12	4.2	4	2	2	2	5	91	4.2	5	2
Dylan Smith	Closer	39	32.8	4.12	1.646	11.5	42	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Trent Harris	Setup Man	19	19.6	2.30	1.173	12.4	27	1.1	2	2	2	1	2	37	1.1	2	2
Carson Seymour	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	23	26.4	5.45	1.780	7.2	21	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Jason Foley	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	22	21.2	5.09	1.745	5.9	14	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

MIN wins 4-3

New York Mets @ Texas Rangers

NYM 72-85 (4.29 RPG / 4.54 RA)

6 - 3

TEX 78-79 (4.18 RPG / 4.41 RA)

WINNER: NYM wins 6-3 TARGET: NYM 6 - 3 TEX (NYM) Confidence: 59.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYM	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	3	6	8
TEX	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	0	3	2

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.3

Avg Allowed3.9

Run Diff4

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.6

Avg Allowed4.2

Run Diff4

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2L

NYM Season Quality

Record72-85

Win%0.459

Run Diff-38

RD/Game-0.242

TEX Season Quality

Record78-79

Win%0.497

Run Diff-37

RD/Game-0.236

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.1156; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Francisco Lindor	SS	98	394	89	0.226	20	48	0.308	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.192	0.262	0.335	OK
Juan Soto	DH	104	379	105	0.277	26	66	0.388	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.277	0.380	0.509	OK
Bo Bichette	3B	151	606	160	0.264	17	76	0.313	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.244	0.290	0.370	OK
Mark Vientos	1B	82	262	57	0.218	13	39	0.261	4	3	0	1	0	1	2	0.000	0.234	0.278	0.400	OK
Carson Benge	RF	147	565	155	0.274	19	61	0.339	4	4	1	1	0	0	3	0.250	0.292	0.347	0.456	OK
Marcus Semien	2B	132	470	104	0.221	14	48	0.288	4	4	3	1	4	0	0	0.750	0.203	0.265	0.284	OK
Francisco Alvarez	C	105	355	81	0.228	15	40	0.307	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.235	0.289	0.396	OK
A.J. Ewing	CF	114	416	108	0.260	10	40	0.329	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.259	0.326	0.369	OK
Nick Morabito	LF	13	34	6	0.176	0	4	0.282	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.191	0.256	0.240	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	35	8	6	6	2	14	0.229

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Wyatt Langford	LF	105	392	95	0.242	17	43	0.339	4	3	1	1	2	1	0	0.333	0.238	0.363	0.403	OK
Corey Seager	SS	96	363	83	0.229	18	47	0.318	4	3	0	1	0	1	1	0.000	0.213	0.284	0.364	OK
Josh Jung	DH	101	391	115	0.294	11	40	0.359	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.289	0.341	0.468	OK
Brandon Nimmo	RF	150	574	150	0.261	14	61	0.326	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.252	0.308	0.375	OK
Ezequiel Duran	3B	146	521	137	0.263	17	83	0.324	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.238	0.300	0.382	OK
Jake Burger	1B	149	537	124	0.231	27	88	0.304	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.191	0.279	0.379	OK
Nicky Lopez	2B	84	222	61	0.275	1	23	0.325	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.155	0.209	0.187	OK
Danny Jansen	C	60	181	36	0.199	6	23	0.296	3	2	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.224	0.293	0.373	OK
Evan Carter	CF	133	380	74	0.195	9	38	0.285	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.235	0.305	0.326	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	29	2	3	3	5	9	0.069

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Nolan McLean	Starter	30	170.8	3.21	1.206	10.0	189	6.0	0	0	0	0	6	76	6.0	6	0
Kodai Senga	Closer	31	58.3	7.72	1.732	11.6	75	1.0	1	1	1	2	2	24	1.0	2	1
Nathan Lavender	Setup Man	19	15.0	2.40	1.067	15.0	25	1.0	1	2	2	2	0	24	1.0	0	2
Jonathan Pintaro	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	21	28.0	4.82	1.393	9.6	30	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Cody Bradford	Starter	8	37.5	4.32	1.547	4.8	20	4.2	4	2	2	0	11	83	4.2	11	2
Jacob Latz	Closer	55	64.9	1.80	0.801	10.8	78	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	33	1.2	1	0
Jakob Junis	Setup Man	50	48.8	3.14	1.270	6.8	37	1.2	1	1	1	0	2	28	1.2	2	1
Chase Silseth	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	22	14.7	5.51	1.905	13.5	22	1.0	3	3	3	2	0	30	1.0	0	3

Game Summary

NYM wins 6-3

San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers

SD 87-70 (4.39 RPG / 4.18 RA)

5 - 7

LAD 97-60 (5.01 RPG / 3.74 RA)

WINNER: LAD wins 7-5 TARGET: SD 5 - 7 LAD (LAD) Confidence: 53.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SD	0	1	0	2	1	0	0	1	0	5	8
LAD	0	3	4	0	0	0	0	0	x	7	7

SD Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs6.4

Avg Allowed4.9

Run Diff15

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs5.3

Avg Allowed2.6

Run Diff27

Off Trendhot

Def Trendstrong

Streak5W

SD Season Quality

Record87-70

Win%0.554

Run Diff34

RD/Game0.217

LAD Season Quality

Record97-60

Win%0.618

Run Diff200

RD/Game1.274

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.7494; margin adjustment: 0.3147; applied: True

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Fernando Tatis Jr.	RF	153	611	174	0.285	25	80	0.353	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.265	0.323	0.504	OK
Dustin Harris	LF	20	71	24	0.338	0	13	0.360	5	5	1	1	1	0	2	0.200	0.272	0.315	0.373	OK
Manny Machado	3B	153	570	124	0.218	28	84	0.306	4	4	1	1	1	0	3	0.250	0.196	0.279	0.337	OK
Ty France	1B	122	421	126	0.299	21	70	0.363	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.284	0.331	0.481	OK
Jackson Merrill	CF	153	599	152	0.254	26	86	0.302	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.230	0.268	0.405	OK
Xander Bogaerts	SS	149	510	117	0.229	12	56	0.328	4	3	1	1	1	1	2	0.333	0.263	0.353	0.407	OK
Jake Cronenworth	2B	103	361	82	0.227	7	36	0.308	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.247	0.306	0.407	OK
Samad Taylor	DH	43	138	47	0.341	2	18	0.414	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.353	0.426	0.480	OK
Ethan Salas	C	13	30	5	0.167	2	4	0.194	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.162	0.195	0.319	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	35	8	5	5	3	11	0.229

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Mookie Betts	SS	116	457	119	0.260	22	68	0.323	4	4	0	1	0	0	1	0.000	0.302	0.365	0.529	OK
Shohei Ohtani	DH	129	497	137	0.276	30	78	0.380	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.251	0.354	0.463	OK
Will Smith	C	67	226	56	0.248	10	33	0.337	4	3	0	1	0	1	0	0.000	0.279	0.351	0.545	OK
Freddie Freeman	1B	148	559	164	0.293	16	68	0.369	4	4	3	1	2	0	0	0.750	0.290	0.353	0.402	OK
Teoscar Hernández	LF	118	421	112	0.266	15	62	0.333	4	3	1	1	2	1	1	0.333	0.260	0.320	0.392	OK
Kyle Tucker	RF	145	515	121	0.235	17	70	0.329	4	4	2	1	3	0	1	0.500	0.283	0.373	0.512	OK
Andy Pages	CF	127	491	133	0.271	21	79	0.339	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.257	0.319	0.410	OK
Max Muncy	3B	143	472	119	0.252	29	76	0.347	3	2	0	1	0	1	0	0.000	0.263	0.332	0.498	OK
Tommy Edman	2B	76	273	66	0.242	8	38	0.324	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0.333	0.220	0.272	0.420	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	31	7	7	7	3	6	0.226

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Robbie Ray	Starter	8	39.2	5.28	1.480	7.1	31	5.0	5	4	4	2	5	97	5.0	5	3
Mason Miller	Closer	63	63.5	1.28	0.882	17.4	123	1.0	1	3	3	1	0	20	1.0	0	3
Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	64	60.9	2.07	1.117	11.2	76	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Yuki Matsui	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	51	53.5	2.19	1.308	11.1	66	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Yoshinobu Yamamoto	Starter	27	176.9	2.54	0.876	9.1	178	6.2	6	3	3	2	8	122	6.2	8	3
Tanner Scott	Closer	67	56.3	3.04	1.101	12.5	78	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	19	1.0	1	1
Brock Stewart	Setup Man	26	23.1	2.34	1.039	9.4	24	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	25	1.0	1	0
Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	70	45.5	3.36	1.363	14.0	71	0.1	1	1	1	1	1	11	0.1	1	1

Game Summary

LAD wins 7-5

St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates

STL 77-81 (4.49 RPG / 4.62 RA)

5 - 6

PIT 80-78 (4.75 RPG / 4.58 RA)

WINNER: PIT wins 6-5 TARGET: STL 5 - 6 PIT (PIT) Confidence: 55.6% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
STL	0	0	0	1	2	1	1	0	0	5	5
PIT	0	2	0	0	1	0	2	1	x	6	9

STL Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.6

Avg Allowed4.9

Run Diff-13

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.1

Avg Allowed4.6

Run Diff-5

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak5W

STL Season Quality

Record76-81

Win%0.484

Run Diff-25

RD/Game-0.159

PIT Season Quality

Record80-77

Win%0.510

Run Diff31

RD/Game0.197

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.3673; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
JJ Wetherholt	2B	131	511	123	0.241	17	49	0.339	5	3	0	1	0	2	1	0.000	0.231	0.303	0.338	OK
Iván Herrera	DH	152	578	140	0.242	17	66	0.349	5	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.227	0.291	0.413	OK
Alec Burleson	1B	152	578	161	0.279	23	108	0.343	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.231	0.286	0.396	OK
Jordan Walker	RF	150	577	157	0.272	26	95	0.331	5	4	1	1	1	1	0	0.250	0.200	0.265	0.334	OK
Leonardo Bernal	C	19	77	23	0.299	4	17	0.341	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.252	0.292	0.415	OK
Nolan Gorman	3B	80	254	48	0.189	9	33	0.269	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.133	0.229	0.225	OK
José Fermín	LF	108	309	79	0.256	6	41	0.317	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.307	0.369	0.409	OK
Nathan Church	CF	124	415	106	0.255	10	49	0.299	4	2	1	1	1	2	0	0.500	0.274	0.311	0.385	OK
Masyn Winn	SS	126	453	106	0.234	5	55	0.306	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.189	0.261	0.271	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	32	5	5	5	7	8	0.156

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Konnor Griffin	SS	74	292	79	0.271	5	31	0.324	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.272	0.314	0.390	OK
Rafael Flores Jr.	C	41	136	38	0.279	10	22	0.347	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.293	0.359	0.556	OK
Bryan Reynolds	LF	154	572	151	0.264	17	71	0.367	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.258	0.338	0.425	OK
Brandon Lowe	2B	143	557	144	0.259	33	93	0.329	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.252	0.319	0.507	OK
Nick Gonzales	DH	139	526	157	0.298	4	58	0.361	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.291	0.338	0.369	OK
Ronny Simon	RF	16	51	15	0.294	1	4	0.333	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.269	0.310	0.420	OK
Ryan O'Hearn	1B	100	380	103	0.271	18	73	0.334	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.266	0.328	0.428	OK
Jared Triolo	3B	106	311	75	0.241	3	28	0.313	4	2	2	1	3	1	0	1.000	0.233	0.290	0.294	OK
Jake Mangum	CF	117	411	116	0.282	5	32	0.336	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.255	0.295	0.376	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	32	9	6	6	2	4	0.281

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Matthew Liberatore	Starter	30	144.9	5.53	1.532	9.2	148	5.0	6	3	3	1	4	85	5.0	4	3
Riley O'Brien	Closer	66	61.2	4.26	1.340	9.4	64	1.2	2	2	2	1	0	28	1.2	0	2
George Soriano	Setup Man	69	56.6	4.93	1.608	10.2	64	1.1	1	1	1	0	0	20	1.1	0	1

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Lake Bachar	Starter	13	23.5	3.06	1.319	10.0	26	5.0	2	2	2	3	5	93	5.0	5	2
Mason Montgomery	Closer	66	58.3	2.62	1.132	15.3	99	1.2	1	1	1	3	1	42	1.2	1	1
Luke Weaver	Setup Man	16	13.6	5.96	1.544	11.9	18	1.1	1	1	1	1	2	24	1.1	2	1
Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	66	59.5	3.63	1.210	11.8	78	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	16	1.0	0	1

Game Summary

PIT wins 6-5

Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees

TB 96-62 (4.53 RPG / 4.03 RA)

5 - 4

NYY 91-67 (4.59 RPG / 3.7 RA)

WINNER: TB wins 5-4 TARGET: TB 5 - 4 NYY (TB) Confidence: 50.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	R	H
TB	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	5	11
NYY	0	0	0	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	0	4	12

TB Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs4.8

Avg Allowed2.0

Run Diff28

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak1W

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.3

Avg Allowed4.2

Run Diff1

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

TB Season Quality

Record96-61

Win%0.611

Run Diff86

RD/Game0.548

NYY Season Quality

Record90-67

Win%0.573

Run Diff134

RD/Game0.854

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.0639; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Victor Mesa Jr.	LF	67	218	55	0.252	14	31	0.317	6	6	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.251	0.321	0.500	OK
Jonathan Aranda	DH	150	564	157	0.278	22	92	0.360	6	6	1	0	0	0	1	0.167	0.273	0.344	0.462	OK
Junior Caminero	3B	156	596	164	0.275	41	97	0.361	6	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.257	0.331	0.441	OK
Liam Hicks	C	37	108	32	0.296	4	19	0.389	6	5	1	1	0	1	0	0.200	0.272	0.344	0.372	OK
Jonny DeLuca	RF	98	327	85	0.260	9	46	0.290	6	5	1	1	0	1	1	0.200	0.222	0.248	0.340	OK
Richie Palacios	2B	114	332	77	0.232	10	53	0.327	5	4	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.233	0.325	0.367	OK
Ryan Vilade	1B	84	226	57	0.252	11	40	0.327	5	4	3	1	2	1	0	0.750	0.233	0.313	0.398	OK
Cedric Mullins	CF	129	425	86	0.202	14	45	0.284	5	5	2	1	0	0	1	0.400	0.197	0.267	0.285	OK
Jorge Mateo	SS	23	66	9	0.136	1	7	0.183	5	4	2	1	3	1	1	0.500	0.168	0.204	0.248	OK
TEAM TOTALS									50	44	11	5	5	5	9	0.250

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ben Rice	DH	146	545	143	0.262	38	91	0.364	6	5	2	1	2	1	1	0.400	0.232	0.336	0.479	OK
George Lombard Jr.	SS	38	136	33	0.243	5	18	0.295	6	6	2	1	0	0	2	0.333	0.252	0.295	0.415	OK
Luis García Jr.	1B	40	151	40	0.265	7	15	0.296	6	6	2	0	0	0	2	0.333	0.209	0.236	0.384	OK
Heliot Ramos	RF	33	99	16	0.162	4	10	0.291	6	5	1	0	0	1	2	0.200	0.221	0.280	0.414	OK
Spencer Jones	CF	79	245	60	0.245	11	39	0.314	6	5	1	1	1	1	2	0.200	0.213	0.272	0.398	OK
Jazz Chisholm Jr.	2B	131	456	107	0.235	19	55	0.312	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.247	0.329	0.369	OK
José Caballero	LF	121	400	94	0.235	14	50	0.291	5	5	2	0	0	0	1	0.400	0.236	0.286	0.369	OK
Ryan McMahon	3B	109	313	65	0.208	10	35	0.272	5	4	0	0	0	1	3	0.000	0.171	0.235	0.274	OK
Ali Sánchez	C	37	79	19	0.241	1	8	0.265	5	5	2	1	1	0	0	0.400	0.165	0.179	0.229	OK
TEAM TOTALS									50	45	12	4	4	5	14	0.267

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Mason Englert	Starter	14	33.8	4.79	1.509	8.5	32	5.0	9	3	3	2	8	105	5.0	8	3
Bryan Baker	Closer	62	59.7	1.36	0.905	9.5	63	2.1	0	0	0	0	0	29	2.1	0	0
Kevin Kelly	Setup Man	70	61.7	2.92	1.070	9.0	62	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13	0.2	3	0
Cam Booser	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	40	32.1	2.52	0.935	12.1	43	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	20	1.0	1	0
Alex Cook	Reliever	4	5.2	5.19	1.154	8.7	5	1.0	2	1	1	1	1	23	0.0	1	1
Ty Johnson	Reliever	7	4.8	5.62	1.667	20.6	11	0.2	0	0	0	1	1	12	0.0	1	0

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Gerrit Cole	Starter	21	119.0	3.71	1.126	9.3	123	5.2	2	1	1	5	5	108	5.2	5	1
David Bednar	Closer	62	62.9	2.72	1.097	10.6	74	1.2	2	0	0	0	2	27	1.2	2	0
Brent Headrick	Setup Man	79	61.6	2.63	1.477	14.0	96	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	60	73.9	1.83	1.204	8.3	68	1.0	5	2	2	0	0	28	0.2	0	2
Tim Hill	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	64	46.6	5.21	1.309	4.8	25	1.2	2	2	2	0	1	27	0.0	1	2

Game Summary

TB wins 5-4

Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles

TOR 77-82 (4.0 RPG / 4.3 RA)

4 - 5

BAL 78-81 (4.43 RPG / 4.6 RA)

WINNER: BAL wins 5-4 TARGET: TOR 4 - 5 BAL (BAL) Confidence: 50.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TOR	1	0	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	4	8
BAL	0	2	1	0	0	1	0	1	x	5	11

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.3

Avg Allowed4.7

Run Diff-4

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs3.6

Avg Allowed3.9

Run Diff-3

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

TOR Season Quality

Record77-80

Win%0.490

Run Diff-43

RD/Game-0.274

BAL Season Quality

Record76-81

Win%0.484

Run Diff-30

RD/Game-0.191

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.077; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Nathan Lukes	RF	117	393	108	0.275	10	40	0.322	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.276	0.319	0.355	OK
Josh Smith	LF	28	63	13	0.206	5	7	0.311	4	3	2	1	1	0	1	0.667	0.191	0.274	0.303	OK
Kazuma Okamoto	3B	150	553	130	0.235	33	89	0.310	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.227	0.290	0.402	OK
George Springer	DH	120	451	113	0.251	15	53	0.325	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.238	0.299	0.356	OK
Sean Keys	1B	19	51	10	0.196	2	9	0.236	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.197	0.235	0.353	OK
Andrés Giménez	SS	137	458	111	0.242	9	57	0.288	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.233	0.257	0.320	OK
Brandon Valenzuela	C	76	233	51	0.219	8	21	0.304	4	4	2	1	1	0	2	0.500	0.137	0.233	0.226	OK
Myles Straw	CF	119	283	67	0.237	3	25	0.294	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.174	0.237	0.263	OK
Ernie Clement	2B	152	573	151	0.264	9	47	0.290	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.194	0.222	0.282	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	34	8	4	4	1	10	0.235

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Dylan Beavers	LF	95	305	71	0.233	7	38	0.303	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.203	0.266	0.318	OK
Pete Alonso	1B	154	577	154	0.267	40	108	0.360	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.251	0.327	0.661	OK
Gunnar Henderson	SS	151	601	136	0.226	23	58	0.310	4	4	3	1	0	0	0	0.750	0.290	0.350	0.508	OK
Coby Mayo	DH	121	393	90	0.229	24	63	0.296	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.232	0.302	0.464	OK
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	3B	52	179	46	0.257	9	34	0.304	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.247	0.282	0.477	OK
Colton Cowser	CF	122	324	73	0.225	12	36	0.310	4	4	2	1	1	0	2	0.500	0.234	0.318	0.333	OK
Jeremiah Jackson	2B	84	259	56	0.216	8	36	0.241	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.121	0.143	0.239	OK
Leody Taveras	RF	128	419	90	0.215	8	54	0.283	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.209	0.271	0.316	OK
Carlos Narváez	C	28	70	8	0.114	0	0	0.205	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.120	0.175	0.164	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	35	11	5	5	1	4	0.314

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Max Scherzer	Starter	16	70.8	6.23	1.398	6.9	54	5.0	7	3	3	1	3	88	5.0	3	3
Louis Varland	Closer	70	71.4	1.39	1.092	12.0	95	1.0	3	1	1	0	1	20	1.0	1	1
Tyler Rogers	Setup Man	73	65.1	1.94	1.260	5.4	39	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Spencer Miles	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	48	87.9	2.76	1.160	9.3	91	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	16	1.0	0	1

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Chris Bassitt	Starter	19	92.8	4.85	1.616	7.0	72	5.0	6	3	3	0	8	92	5.0	8	3
Andrew Kittredge	Closer	54	42.2	4.05	1.540	8.3	39	1.2	2	1	1	1	0	31	1.2	0	1
Rico Garcia	Setup Man	73	56.2	3.04	1.085	10.9	68	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	65	39.3	2.75	1.145	10.1	44	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0

Game Summary

BAL wins 5-4

Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles

TOR 77-82 (4.0 RPG / 4.3 RA)

6 - 5

BAL 78-81 (4.43 RPG / 4.6 RA)

WINNER: TOR wins 6-5 TARGET: TOR 6 - 5 BAL (TOR) Confidence: 51.2% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TOR	0	4	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	6	9
BAL	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	5	10

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.3

Avg Allowed4.7

Run Diff-4

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs3.6

Avg Allowed3.9

Run Diff-3

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

TOR Season Quality

Record77-80

Win%0.490

Run Diff-43

RD/Game-0.274

BAL Season Quality

Record76-81

Win%0.484

Run Diff-30

RD/Game-0.191

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.077; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Nathan Lukes	RF	117	393	108	0.275	10	40	0.322	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.276	0.319	0.355	OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	1B	140	529	139	0.263	9	56	0.332	5	5	1	1	2	0	1	0.200	0.276	0.350	0.376	OK
Kazuma Okamoto	3B	150	553	130	0.235	33	89	0.310	5	3	0	1	0	1	1	0.000	0.227	0.290	0.402	OK
George Springer	DH	120	451	113	0.251	15	53	0.325	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.238	0.299	0.356	OK
Josh Smith	LF	28	63	13	0.206	5	7	0.311	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.191	0.274	0.303	OK
Andrés Giménez	SS	137	458	111	0.242	9	57	0.288	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.233	0.257	0.320	OK
Brandon Valenzuela	C	76	233	51	0.219	8	21	0.304	4	4	3	1	0	0	1	0.750	0.137	0.233	0.226	OK
Myles Straw	CF	119	283	67	0.237	3	25	0.294	4	4	2	1	4	0	0	0.500	0.174	0.237	0.263	OK
Ernie Clement	2B	152	573	151	0.264	9	47	0.290	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.194	0.222	0.282	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	36	9	6	6	2	6	0.250

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Dylan Beavers	LF	95	305	71	0.233	7	38	0.303	5	5	1	1	3	0	0	0.200	0.203	0.266	0.318	OK
Pete Alonso	1B	154	577	154	0.267	40	108	0.360	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.251	0.327	0.661	OK
Gunnar Henderson	SS	151	601	136	0.226	23	58	0.310	5	3	2	1	0	2	0	0.667	0.290	0.350	0.508	OK
Coby Mayo	DH	121	393	90	0.229	24	63	0.296	5	4	0	0	0	1	3	0.000	0.232	0.302	0.465	OK
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	3B	52	179	46	0.257	9	34	0.304	5	4	3	1	1	1	0	0.750	0.247	0.282	0.477	OK
Colton Cowser	CF	122	324	73	0.225	12	36	0.310	4	3	1	1	0	1	2	0.333	0.234	0.318	0.333	OK
Jeremiah Jackson	2B	84	259	56	0.216	8	36	0.241	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.121	0.143	0.239	OK
Leody Taveras	RF	128	419	90	0.215	8	54	0.283	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.209	0.271	0.316	OK
Carlos Narváez	C	28	70	8	0.114	0	0	0.205	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.120	0.175	0.164	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	34	10	5	5	7	7	0.294

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Max Scherzer	Starter	16	70.8	6.23	1.398	6.9	54	5.0	6	4	4	3	4	99	5.0	4	4
Louis Varland	Closer	70	71.4	1.39	1.092	12.0	95	1.0	1	0	0	1	1	20	1.0	1	0
Tyler Rogers	Setup Man	73	65.1	1.94	1.260	5.4	39	1.0	0	0	0	2	2	21	1.0	2	0
Spencer Miles	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	48	87.9	2.76	1.160	9.3	91	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	20	1.1	0	0
Mason Fluharty	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	79	46.3	3.89	1.577	12.6	65	0.1	2	1	1	1	0	18	0.2	0	1

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Trey Gibson	Starter	8	30.9	7.86	2.039	8.7	30	4.0	6	6	6	2	2	88	4.0	2	6
Andrew Kittredge	Closer	54	42.2	4.05	1.540	8.3	39	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Rico Garcia	Setup Man	73	56.2	3.04	1.085	10.9	68	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	65	39.3	2.75	1.145	10.1	44	1.1	1	0	0	0	1	20	1.1	1	0
Josh Walker	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	29	21.9	2.05	1.461	11.1	27	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	27	1.2	1	0

Game Summary

TOR wins 6-5

Washington Nationals @ Detroit Tigers

WAS 75-84 (5.08 RPG / 5.02 RA)

6 - 4

DET 74-85 (4.46 RPG / 4.01 RA)

WINNER: WAS wins 6-4 TARGET: WAS 6 - 4 DET (WAS) Confidence: 50.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	R	H
WAS	0	0	0	0	2	0	4	0	0	0	0	0	0	6	7
DET	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	4	9

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs4.7

Avg Allowed4.0

Run Diff7

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

DET Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.9

Avg Allowed3.9

Run Diff10

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

WAS Season Quality

Record74-84

Win%0.468

Run Diff7

RD/Game0.044

DET Season Quality

Record74-84

Win%0.468

Run Diff73

RD/Game0.462

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.2169; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
James Wood	RF	131	499	132	0.265	30	76	0.388	6	5	1	1	1	1	0	0.200	0.253	0.356	0.422	OK
Andrés Chaparro	DH	73	187	48	0.257	11	37	0.344	6	5	1	1	0	1	0	0.200	0.264	0.338	0.505	OK
Brady House	3B	88	307	74	0.241	10	45	0.302	6	5	1	1	1	1	2	0.200	0.247	0.308	0.385	OK
CJ Abrams	2B	148	566	148	0.261	33	102	0.335	6	6	1	1	3	0	1	0.167	0.259	0.318	0.521	OK
Dylan Crews	LF	103	390	88	0.226	12	43	0.290	6	5	0	0	0	1	4	0.000	0.234	0.282	0.376	OK
Yohandy Morales	1B	14	39	11	0.282	3	8	0.282	6	6	1	0	0	0	2	0.167	0.246	0.254	0.531	OK
Harry Ford	C	32	95	18	0.189	3	10	0.300	5	4	1	1	0	1	2	0.250	0.201	0.302	0.334	OK
Jacob Young	CF	124	409	103	0.252	10	46	0.311	5	5	1	1	1	0	2	0.200	0.254	0.301	0.388	OK
Nasim Nuñez	SS	133	424	88	0.208	1	36	0.288	5	5	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.192	0.274	0.224	OK
TEAM TOTALS									51	46	7	6	6	5	16	0.152

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Kevin McGonigle	3B	150	579	160	0.276	17	70	0.377	6	6	1	0	0	0	3	0.167	0.285	0.384	0.440	OK
Hao-Yu Lee	DH	103	309	84	0.272	10	46	0.327	6	6	1	1	1	0	4	0.167	0.294	0.351	0.483	OK
Ben Malgeri	RF	45	107	26	0.243	4	16	0.339	6	5	2	1	0	1	1	0.400	0.243	0.328	0.429	OK
Riley Greene	LF	134	493	141	0.286	21	75	0.373	6	5	4	1	1	1	0	0.800	0.274	0.353	0.487	OK
Dillon Dingler	C	140	531	131	0.247	27	89	0.305	6	5	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.252	0.288	0.415	OK
Max Clark	CF	46	160	43	0.269	3	21	0.352	6	6	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.278	0.342	0.393	OK
Spencer Torkelson	1B	152	509	115	0.226	24	72	0.323	6	6	1	1	2	0	2	0.167	0.201	0.302	0.397	OK
John Peck	SS	17	59	10	0.169	0	7	0.286	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.152	0.249	0.210	OK
Zach McKinstry	2B	119	364	74	0.203	4	26	0.284	5	4	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.179	0.258	0.268	OK
TEAM TOTALS									52	48	9	4	4	4	17	0.188

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Richard Lovelady	Starter	30	18.8	5.27	2.553	11.5	24	3.2	3	2	2	0	8	67	3.2	8	2
Erik Tolman	Closer	13	11.7	3.85	1.538	11.5	15	1.2	1	1	1	1	3	28	1.2	3	1
Brad Lord	Setup Man	39	72.3	4.36	1.369	9.2	74	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	25	2.0	1	0
Luis Perales	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	6	11.0	11.45	2.545	10.6	13	1.0	3	1	1	1	1	26	1.0	1	1
Yovanny Cruz	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	11	6.0	10.50	3.000	9.0	6	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	17	0.2	2	0
Riley Cornelio	Reliever	17	31.4	4.30	1.688	10.9	38	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	0.0	0	0
Jack Sinclair	Reliever	8	7.6	2.37	1.053	7.1	6	2.2	1	0	0	1	2	47	0.0	2	0

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Framber Valdez	Starter	30	166.1	4.12	1.385	7.0	129	6.0	2	2	2	4	7	107	6.0	7	2
Kenley Jansen	Closer	47	39.5	3.19	1.139	11.2	49	1.1	5	4	4	0	2	32	1.1	2	4
Tyler Holton	Setup Man	66	60.7	3.26	1.483	8.2	55	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	0.1	0	0
Drew Sommers	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	41	30.6	3.82	1.405	17.6	60	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	17	1.1	2	0
Jacob Waguespack	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	33	38.3	2.82	1.018	7.3	31	2.2	0	0	0	1	5	38	0.0	5	0
Tyler Kinley	Middle Reliever	13	11.7	1.54	0.769	4.6	6	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	8	0.0	0	0

Game Summary

WAS wins 6-4

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

All Games Overview

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies

ARI Recent Form

COL Recent Form

ARI Season Quality

COL Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Chicago White Sox @ Kansas City Royals

CHW Recent Form

KC Recent Form

CHW Season Quality

KC Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Cincinnati Reds @ Atlanta Braves

CIN Recent Form

ATL Recent Form

CIN Season Quality

ATL Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Cleveland Guardians @ Boston Red Sox

CLE Recent Form

BOS Recent Form

CLE Season Quality

BOS Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners

HOU Recent Form

SEA Recent Form

HOU Season Quality

SEA Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland Athletics

LAA Recent Form

OAK Recent Form

LAA Season Quality

OAK Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Miami Marlins @ Chicago Cubs

MIA Recent Form

CHC Recent Form

MIA Season Quality

CHC Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies