MLB Predictions — September 21, 2026

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
MIN @ SF	5 - 4	5 - 4	MIN	MIN	MIN wins 5-4	57%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TOR @ BAL	5 - 4	5 - 4	TOR	TOR	TOR wins 5-4	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
WAS @ DET	4 - 5	4 - 5	DET	DET	DET wins 5-4	54%	enhanced_ml_pitcher_opponent_strength

Minnesota Twins @ San Francisco Giants

MIN 73-83 (4.56 RPG / 4.97 RA)

5 - 4

SF 65-92 (4.22 RPG / 4.73 RA)

WINNER: MIN wins 5-4 TARGET: MIN 5 - 4 SF (MIN) Confidence: 56.8% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H
MIN	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	1	5	11
SF	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	4	6

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.7

Avg Allowed4.8

Run Diff-11

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

SF Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs4.6

Avg Allowed5.7

Run Diff-11

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak3L

MIN Season Quality

Record73-83

Win%0.468

Run Diff-64

RD/Game-0.410

SF Season Quality

Record64-92

Win%0.410

Run Diff-84

RD/Game-0.538

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.162; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Walker Jenkins	CF	18	62	13	0.210	3	8	0.300	5	4	1	0	0	1	3	0.250	0.249	0.307	0.418	OK
Luke Keaschall	RF	145	507	141	0.278	9	46	0.369	5	4	2	1	0	1	1	0.500	0.295	0.357	0.392	OK
Brooks Lee	3B	147	561	142	0.253	23	80	0.300	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	0.250	0.309	0.343	0.423	OK
Kody Clemens	2B	137	509	121	0.238	26	76	0.299	5	5	1	1	2	0	1	0.200	0.221	0.273	0.406	OK
Ryan Jeffers	C	84	302	77	0.255	14	55	0.348	5	5	2	1	1	0	0	0.400	0.215	0.296	0.378	OK
Alan Roden	DH	28	72	20	0.278	1	14	0.349	5	5	2	1	1	0	0	0.400	0.292	0.364	0.413	OK
Player-693306	1B	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.257	0.327	0.435
Emmanuel Rodriguez	LF	9	33	6	0.182	1	4	0.206	5	5	1	1	1	0	2	0.200	0.182	0.213	0.373	OK
Ryan Kreidler	SS	84	234	51	0.218	8	28	0.274	5	5	1	0	0	0	2	0.200	0.146	0.210	0.349	OK
TEAM TOTALS									45	41	11	5	5	4	11	0.268

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Drew Gilbert	CF	116	321	76	0.237	10	40	0.307	5	4	0	1	1	1	1	0.000	0.127	0.201	0.282	OK
Jonah Cox	2B	45	127	36	0.283	4	15	0.326	5	5	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.280	0.326	0.403	OK
Player-815589	RF	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	5	4	2	0	0	1	0	0.500	0.244	0.306	0.408
Marcelo Mayer	DH	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	5	5	1	1	1	0	0	0.200	0.217	0.270	0.315
Brett Harris	1B	8	21	4	0.190	0	0	0.261	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.169	0.224	0.260	OK
Drew Cavanaugh	C	50	131	31	0.237	1	10	0.320	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.199	0.285	0.301	OK
Osleivis Basabe	3B	39	124	25	0.202	5	13	0.265	4	3	1	1	1	1	2	0.333	0.201	0.259	0.344	OK
Scott Bandura	LF	7	16	3	0.188	0	0	0.235	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.179	0.225	0.296	OK
Christian Koss	SS	59	181	42	0.232	4	12	0.272	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.228	0.263	0.301	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	36	6	4	4	4	10	0.167

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Zebby Matthews	Starter	22	123.7	4.80	1.261	7.8	107	5.2	2	1	1	0	7	85	5.2	7	1
Yoendrys Gómez	Closer	54	40.7	4.42	1.671	10.8	49	1.2	3	3	3	3	2	42	1.1	2	3
Jeff Hoffman	Setup Man	19	14.9	2.42	1.275	15.7	26	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0
A.J. Minter	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	21	16.5	2.18	1.273	10.9	20	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Taylor Rogers	Reliever	61	44.4	5.27	2.027	10.5	52	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	8	0.0	0	0

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Blade Tidwell	Starter	16	51.7	4.70	1.238	7.3	42	5.1	6	3	3	2	5	105	5.1	5	3
Dylan Smith	Closer	39	32.8	4.12	1.646	11.5	42	1.1	1	0	0	1	1	24	1.1	1	0
Trent Harris	Setup Man	18	18.6	2.42	1.237	12.6	26	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	19	0.2	2	1
Carson Seymour	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	22	25.4	5.67	1.850	7.4	21	1.2	1	0	0	1	1	37	1.2	1	0
Jason Foley	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	21	20.2	4.90	1.782	6.2	14	0.2	1	1	1	0	2	11	0.0	2	1

Game Summary

MIN wins 5-4

Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles

TOR 77-80 (4.03 RPG / 4.3 RA)

5 - 4

BAL 76-81 (4.44 RPG / 4.63 RA)

WINNER: TOR wins 5-4 TARGET: TOR 5 - 4 BAL (TOR) Confidence: 50.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TOR	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	1	5	9
BAL	0	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	4	5

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.0

Avg Allowed4.5

Run Diff-5

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.1

Avg Allowed4.1

Run Diff0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak3L

TOR Season Quality

Record77-79

Win%0.494

Run Diff-42

RD/Game-0.269

BAL Season Quality

Record75-81

Win%0.481

Run Diff-31

RD/Game-0.199

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.0907; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Brett Bateman	CF	37	149	48	0.322	2	11	0.393	5	5	1	1	2	0	0	0.200	0.282	0.340	0.373	OK
Alejandro Kirk	C	72	262	74	0.282	10	42	0.348	5	5	1	1	2	0	0	0.200	0.290	0.345	0.414	OK
Nathan Lukes	RF	116	390	107	0.274	10	39	0.321	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.266	0.304	0.353	OK
George Springer	DH	119	447	111	0.248	15	52	0.323	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.147	0.225	0.254	OK
Sean Keys	1B	18	48	10	0.208	2	8	0.255	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.215	0.254	0.399	OK
Kazuma Okamoto	3B	149	549	129	0.235	33	89	0.310	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.230	0.294	0.410	OK
Josh Smith	LF	27	59	13	0.220	5	7	0.329	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.201	0.286	0.326	OK
Andrés Giménez	SS	136	455	110	0.242	9	57	0.288	4	3	2	1	0	1	0	0.667	0.215	0.240	0.321	OK
Ernie Clement	2B	151	570	151	0.265	9	47	0.292	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.197	0.228	0.279	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	36	9	5	5	2	7	0.250

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Dylan Beavers	LF	94	301	71	0.236	7	38	0.306	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.204	0.265	0.317	OK
Pete Alonso	1B	153	573	152	0.265	38	105	0.359	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.219	0.304	0.487	OK
Gunnar Henderson	SS	150	597	133	0.223	22	57	0.308	4	4	1	1	1	0	3	0.250	0.238	0.307	0.383	OK
Coby Mayo	DH	120	389	90	0.231	24	63	0.299	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.245	0.315	0.499	OK
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	3B	51	176	45	0.256	9	34	0.304	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.172	0.213	0.369	OK
Samuel Basallo	C	108	357	80	0.224	18	54	0.289	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.214	0.271	0.382	OK
Rece Hinds	RF	9	20	5	0.250	0	1	0.333	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.183	0.241	0.304	OK
Colton Cowser	CF	121	323	73	0.226	12	36	0.309	3	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.268	0.341	0.372	OK
José Barrero	2B	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	3	2	1	1	0	1	0	0.500	0.248	0.309	0.386
TEAM TOTALS									34	32	5	4	4	2	6	0.156

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Trey Yesavage	Starter	18	90.4	3.78	1.184	9.1	91	5.0	4	3	3	1	4	79	5.0	4	3
Louis Varland	Closer	70	71.4	1.39	1.092	12.0	95	1.1	1	1	1	0	0	20	1.1	0	1
Tyler Rogers	Setup Man	72	65.0	1.80	1.231	5.4	39	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0
Spencer Miles	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	48	87.9	2.76	1.160	9.3	91	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	12	1.2	1	0

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Shane Baz	Starter	30	167.4	4.25	1.398	8.2	152	5.2	7	4	4	2	4	109	5.2	4	4
Andrew Kittredge	Closer	54	42.2	4.05	1.540	8.3	39	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Rico Garcia	Setup Man	72	55.2	3.10	1.105	10.8	66	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	21	1.2	1	0
Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	64	38.2	2.83	1.152	10.1	43	0.2	1	1	1	0	1	11	0.2	1	1

Game Summary

TOR wins 5-4

Washington Nationals @ Detroit Tigers

WAS 73-84 (5.1 RPG / 5.06 RA)

4 - 5

DET 74-83 (4.5 RPG / 4.02 RA)

WINNER: DET wins 5-4 TARGET: WAS 4 - 5 DET (DET) Confidence: 53.6% enhanced_ml_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
WAS	0	0	0	1	0	0	3	0	0	4	8
DET	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	1	5	9

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.8

Avg Allowed4.4

Run Diff4

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

DET Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs5.6

Avg Allowed4.3

Run Diff13

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak2L

WAS Season Quality

Record73-83

Win%0.468

Run Diff12

RD/Game0.077

DET Season Quality

Record73-83

Win%0.468

Run Diff68

RD/Game0.436

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.2823; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jacob Young	CF	123	406	101	0.249	10	46	0.309	5	4	2	1	0	1	1	0.500	0.246	0.293	0.381	OK
CJ Abrams	SS	146	559	146	0.261	31	99	0.336	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.259	0.320	0.472	OK
Nasim Nuñez	2B	131	420	88	0.210	1	36	0.291	5	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.209	0.301	0.244	OK
Abimelec Ortiz	1B	41	121	24	0.198	5	13	0.242	5	4	2	1	4	1	1	0.500	0.200	0.251	0.356	OK
Keibert Ruiz	C	97	319	91	0.285	10	47	0.323	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.293	0.322	0.465	OK
Brady House	3B	87	303	74	0.244	10	45	0.305	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.228	0.285	0.379	OK
Dylan Crews	RF	101	383	85	0.222	12	43	0.286	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.235	0.280	0.392	OK
Daylen Lile	LF	154	582	146	0.251	22	88	0.303	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.250	0.297	0.463	OK
Jorbit Vivas	3B	111	299	74	0.247	3	30	0.337	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.266	0.349	0.349	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	35	8	4	4	4	9	0.229

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Max Clark	CF	45	156	41	0.263	3	21	0.348	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.279	0.348	0.434	OK
Kevin McGonigle	SS	149	574	158	0.275	17	70	0.377	5	4	1	1	1	1	0	0.250	0.291	0.395	0.445	OK
Gleyber Torres	2B	92	346	90	0.260	8	38	0.363	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.259	0.357	0.355	OK
Spencer Torkelson	1B	151	505	114	0.226	23	70	0.324	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.255	0.357	0.459	OK
Dillon Dingler	C	139	528	129	0.244	27	89	0.302	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.239	0.275	0.427	OK
Hao-Yu Lee	2B	101	301	80	0.266	10	45	0.319	4	4	3	1	0	0	0	0.750	0.279	0.334	0.470	OK
Brett Callahan	LF	25	63	14	0.222	1	8	0.275	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.220	0.270	0.348	OK
Riley Greene	LF	133	490	141	0.288	21	75	0.373	4	3	1	1	3	1	2	0.333	0.303	0.383	0.503	OK
Colt Keith	3B	135	381	97	0.255	10	35	0.312	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.259	0.313	0.423	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	35	9	5	5	3	9	0.257

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
DJ Herz	Starter	0	0	0.00	0.000	0.0	0	2.1	4	1	1	0	7	53	2.1	7	1
Erik Tolman	Closer	12	10.7	4.21	1.589	10.1	12	3.1	3	4	4	2	1	71	3.1	1	4
Brad Lord	Setup Man	39	72.3	4.36	1.369	9.2	74	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	19	1.1	0	0
Luis Perales	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	5	9.0	9.00	2.333	11.0	11	1.2	2	0	0	1	1	23	1.0	1	0

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
River Ryan	Starter	0	0	0.00	0.000	0.0	0	0.2	5	1	1	2	2	31	0.2	2	1
Kenley Jansen	Closer	47	39.5	3.19	1.139	11.2	49	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	26	1.2	1	0
Tyler Holton	Setup Man	66	60.7	3.26	1.483	8.2	55	1.2	3	3	3	0	1	30	1.2	1	3
Drew Sommers	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	40	29.6	3.34	1.385	17.6	58	1.1	0	0	0	1	2	21	1.1	2	0
Jacob Waguespack	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	33	38.3	2.82	1.018	7.3	31	3.2	0	0	0	1	3	62	3.2	3	0

Game Summary

DET wins 5-4

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

All Games Overview

Minnesota Twins @ San Francisco Giants

MIN Recent Form

SF Recent Form

MIN Season Quality

SF Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles

TOR Recent Form

BAL Recent Form

TOR Season Quality

BAL Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Washington Nationals @ Detroit Tigers

WAS Recent Form

DET Recent Form

WAS Season Quality

DET Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary