MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

September 17, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (9 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreTarget WinnerSim WinnerWinnerConfidenceMethod
BOS @ TEX3 - 43 - 4TEXTEXTEX wins 4-355%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
DET @ CHW5 - 45 - 4DETDETDET wins 5-453%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
KC @ HOU4 - 54 - 5HOUHOUHOU wins 5-453%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
LAD @ CIN9 - 59 - 5LADLADLAD wins 9-556%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIL @ PIT6 - 46 - 4MILMILMIL wins 6-456%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIN @ LAA4 - 34 - 3MINMINMIN wins 4-352%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
OAK @ TB4 - 74 - 7TBTBTB wins 7-458%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
PHI @ NYM3 - 43 - 4NYMNYMNYM wins 4-354%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SD @ COL8 - 58 - 5SDSDSD wins 8-554%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers

BOS 82-70 (4.39 RPG / 3.86 RA)
3 - 4
TEX 76-76 (4.18 RPG / 4.43 RA)
WINNER: TEX wins 4-3 TARGET: BOS 3 - 4 TEX (TEX) Confidence: 55.4% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
BOS01000101034
TEX30000000148

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.4
Avg Allowed3.1
Run Diff3
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak2L

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs5.1
Avg Allowed4.6
Run Diff5
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak4W

BOS Season Quality

Record82-70
Win%0.539
Run Diff82
RD/Game0.539

TEX Season Quality

Record76-76
Win%0.500
Run Diff-38
RD/Game-0.250

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.4844; margin adjustment: -0.2034; applied: True

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Roman AnthonyLF 4617842 0.236 4100.337 44111 00 0.250 0.221 0.303 0.340 OK
Jahmai JonesDH 254417 0.386 380.438 43111 10 0.333 0.157 0.214 0.298 OK
Wilyer AbreuRF 145551141 0.256 23730.335 44000 00 0.000 0.215 0.286 0.379 OK
Willson Contreras1B 124434120 0.276 27810.388 44111 01 0.250 0.262 0.355 0.520 OK
Adley RutschmanC 248716 0.184 4100.253 44100 00 0.250 0.212 0.276 0.372 OK
Trevor StorySS 5622454 0.241 3250.271 44000 00 0.000 0.252 0.281 0.353 OK
Jarren DuranCF 140524106 0.202 20630.260 33000 00 0.000 0.193 0.242 0.334 OK
Caleb Durbin3B 138466113 0.242 13610.325 32000 11 0.000 0.225 0.308 0.373 OK
Nick Sogard2B 5419551 0.262 5180.358 33000 01 0.000 0.173 0.272 0.315 OK
TEAM TOTALS 33314 33 23 0.129

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ezequiel Duran3B 141503136 0.270 17820.331 44100 01 0.250 0.259 0.314 0.397 OK
Corey SeagerSS 9134280 0.234 18460.326 43000 11 0.000 0.241 0.313 0.435 OK
Josh JungDH 96372111 0.298 9370.362 44100 00 0.250 0.301 0.353 0.438 OK
Brandon NimmoRF 146559147 0.263 14610.327 44210 00 0.500 0.254 0.306 0.386 OK
Wyatt LangfordLF 10038091 0.239 17400.326 44210 01 0.500 0.214 0.291 0.390 OK
Jake Burger1B 144521122 0.234 26840.304 43112 10 0.333 0.225 0.303 0.407 OK
Nicky Lopez2B 8021359 0.277 1230.320 43000 10 0.000 0.155 0.191 0.192 OK
Danny JansenC 5617033 0.194 6210.283 44112 02 0.250 0.227 0.288 0.366 OK
Evan CarterCF 12936771 0.193 9350.288 33000 00 0.000 0.131 0.226 0.227 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35328 44 35 0.250

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Sonny GrayStarter 27155.52.78 1.1778.1140 6.062215101 6.0 5 2
Aroldis ChapmanCloser 5150.21.43 1.07612.268 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Garrett WhitlockMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5148.51.86 0.84510.858 1.02222027 1.0 0 2

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Tyler AlexanderStarter 6857.83.89 1.4718.957 5.03110172 5.0 1 1
Jakob JunisSetup Man 4847.62.84 1.2397.037 2.01222130 2.0 1 2
Chase SilsethMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1913.35.41 1.80512.218 2.00000125 2.0 1 0

Game Summary

TEX wins 4-3


Detroit Tigers @ Chicago White Sox

DET 72-80 (4.49 RPG / 3.99 RA)
5 - 4
CHW 77-75 (4.68 RPG / 4.45 RA)
WINNER: DET wins 5-4 TARGET: DET 5 - 4 CHW (DET) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
DET00140000055
CHW12000010048

DET Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs5.8
Avg Allowed3.3
Run Diff25
Off Trendhot
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs4.1
Avg Allowed4.7
Run Diff-6
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

DET Season Quality

Record72-80
Win%0.474
Run Diff76
RD/Game0.500

CHW Season Quality

Record77-75
Win%0.507
Run Diff34
RD/Game0.224

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.4415; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kevin McGonigle3B 145557153 0.275 17650.377 44000 01 0.000 0.289 0.394 0.465 OK
Gleyber TorresDH 8933488 0.263 8370.364 43010 11 0.000 0.262 0.357 0.364 OK
Dillon DinglerC 136517126 0.244 27880.303 44000 01 0.000 0.220 0.251 0.396 OK
Riley GreeneLF 129475136 0.286 20730.372 44110 01 0.250 0.294 0.365 0.477 OK
Spencer Torkelson1B 147494110 0.223 23700.318 44000 00 0.000 0.253 0.349 0.487 OK
Zach McKinstryRF 11635974 0.206 4260.288 44110 00 0.250 0.181 0.261 0.257 OK
Max ClarkCF 4114438 0.264 3200.342 43000 10 0.000 0.260 0.317 0.401 OK
John PeckSS 12419 0.220 070.340 44111 02 0.250 0.208 0.307 0.271 OK
Javier Báez2B 5016941 0.243 2170.271 32214 10 1.000 0.230 0.253 0.347 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35325 55 36 0.156

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Chase Meidroth2B 145539146 0.271 14560.345 54011 03 0.000 0.267 0.330 0.384 OK
Tommy PhamDH 251 0.200 130.200 54111 12 0.250 0.094 0.107 0.265 OK
Miguel Vargas3B 149558139 0.249 31840.356 55300 00 0.600 0.247 0.336 0.436 OK
Randal GrichukLF 9220763 0.304 13370.332 55100 02 0.200 0.299 0.326 0.577 OK
Munetaka Murakami1B 11641584 0.202 31650.344 42100 20 0.500 0.181 0.319 0.406 OK
Brenton DoyleCF 256515 0.231 270.231 43111 01 0.333 0.224 0.265 0.342 OK
Jake RogersC 12364 0.111 130.200 43000 12 0.000 0.143 0.237 0.256 OK
Luisangel AcuñaSS 7620046 0.230 1120.268 43000 11 0.000 0.163 0.202 0.217 OK
Braden MontgomeryRF 8229061 0.210 6370.307 44111 01 0.250 0.181 0.279 0.293 OK
TEAM TOTALS 40338 44 512 0.242

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Framber ValdezStarter 29161.14.08 1.3846.8121 6.053358123 6.0 8 3
Kenley JansenCloser 4638.53.27 1.16911.248 1.01000128 1.0 1 0
Tyler HoltonSetup Man 6560.63.27 1.4368.255 1.10000229 1.1 2 0
Kyle FinneganMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6052.54.29 1.7528.147 0.22110114 0.2 1 1

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Erick FeddeStarter 31129.74.09 1.3806.391 4.25552384 4.2 3 5
Grant TaylorCloser 4151.92.60 1.11813.276 1.10000217 1.1 2 0
Sean NewcombSetup Man 5373.63.18 1.2779.578 1.10000017 1.1 0 0
Bryan HudsonMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6052.82.90 1.3079.455 1.00001117 1.0 1 0
Jordan HicksMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4233.74.54 1.78013.149 0.2000008 0.2 0 0

Game Summary

DET wins 5-4


Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros

KC 67-86 (4.2 RPG / 4.84 RA)
4 - 5
HOU 77-76 (4.45 RPG / 4.78 RA)
WINNER: HOU wins 5-4 TARGET: KC 4 - 5 HOU (HOU) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
KC20010100045
HOU02000300x510

KC Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.3
Avg Allowed3.4
Run Diff-1
Off Trendcold
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs3.3
Avg Allowed5.1
Run Diff-18
Off Trendcold
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

KC Season Quality

Record67-85
Win%0.441
Run Diff-93
RD/Game-0.612

HOU Season Quality

Record76-76
Win%0.500
Run Diff-54
RD/Game-0.355

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.1181; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carter JensenC 139494115 0.233 24740.320 44111 01 0.250 0.246 0.314 0.468 OK
Bobby Witt Jr.SS 132515143 0.278 18530.357 43111 11 0.333 0.249 0.333 0.390 OK
Jac CaglianoneDH 134479132 0.276 23700.324 44111 01 0.250 0.255 0.293 0.438 OK
Maikel Garcia3B 7228276 0.270 3320.322 44000 01 0.000 0.272 0.320 0.393 OK
Michael Massey2B 119386109 0.282 12460.316 43100 10 0.333 0.289 0.319 0.443 OK
Salvador Perez1B 141543125 0.230 19720.275 44111 01 0.250 0.236 0.269 0.371 OK
John RaveRF 3911425 0.219 6130.299 44000 00 0.000 0.219 0.304 0.474 OK
Kyle IsbelCF 8826959 0.219 6240.266 33000 00 0.000 0.134 0.176 0.197 OK
Isaac CollinsLF 13441792 0.221 6400.328 33000 01 0.000 0.185 0.316 0.285 OK
TEAM TOTALS 34325 44 26 0.156

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jeremy PeñaSS 101404112 0.277 19490.329 55210 02 0.400 0.309 0.343 0.530 OK
Yordan AlvarezDH 147525164 0.312 39980.431 43000 12 0.000 0.289 0.401 0.575 OK
Isaac Paredes3B 144522132 0.253 21860.352 44000 00 0.000 0.231 0.304 0.454 OK
Jose Altuve2B 124482117 0.243 15440.302 44210 02 0.500 0.225 0.275 0.337 OK
Yainer DiazC 8229983 0.278 12370.310 44110 01 0.250 0.299 0.330 0.464 OK
Daulton VarshoCF 3714025 0.179 4130.233 44100 00 0.250 0.200 0.248 0.311 OK
Taylor TrammellLF 8423548 0.204 7210.286 43110 11 0.333 0.184 0.266 0.322 OK
Cam SmithRF 139478102 0.213 20530.277 44315 00 0.750 0.182 0.236 0.356 OK
LaMonte Wade Jr.1B 4611423 0.202 3180.300 43000 01 0.000 0.199 0.283 0.321 OK
TEAM TOTALS 373410 55 29 0.294

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Seth LugoStarter 30161.25.08 1.4767.0126 5.05111594 5.0 5 1
Steven CruzCloser 5452.04.50 1.36510.762 1.02221023 1.0 0 2
Nate PearsonSetup Man 2222.31.61 1.0318.922 1.00000213 1.0 2 0
Craig KimbrelMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1311.43.95 1.4916.38 1.03220227 1.0 2 2

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Miguel UllolaStarter 68.03.38 0.75011.210 3.05441557 3.0 5 4
Josh HaderCloser 4241.40.65 0.60412.055 2.00000025 2.0 0 0
Bryan AbreuSetup Man 6153.54.21 1.45813.077 2.00000125 2.0 1 0
AJ BlubaughMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5985.43.48 1.2889.691 2.00001022 2.0 0 0

Game Summary

HOU wins 5-4


Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds

LAD 93-60 (4.96 RPG / 3.79 RA)
9 - 5
CIN 71-82 (4.14 RPG / 5.14 RA)
WINNER: LAD wins 9-5 TARGET: LAD 9 - 5 CIN (LAD) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
LAD013100400911
CIN000003101511

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs5.3
Avg Allowed3.0
Run Diff23
Off Trendhot
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs3.8
Avg Allowed7.7
Run Diff-39
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

LAD Season Quality

Record92-60
Win%0.605
Run Diff173
RD/Game1.138

CIN Season Quality

Record71-81
Win%0.467
Run Diff-148
RD/Game-0.974

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.9288; margin adjustment: -3.0861; applied: True

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Tommy EdmanCF 7125663 0.246 6330.328 66111 01 0.167 0.232 0.289 0.348 OK
Freddie Freeman1B 143539158 0.293 16640.371 54211 12 0.500 0.259 0.325 0.384 OK
Kyle TuckerRF 140499113 0.226 15660.322 54216 10 0.500 0.220 0.319 0.408 OK
Teoscar HernándezLF 113399105 0.263 15610.333 54111 12 0.250 0.250 0.326 0.463 OK
Max Muncy3B 138453112 0.247 28710.345 54110 11 0.250 0.182 0.271 0.401 OK
Josue De PaulaDH 5142 0.143 130.368 55310 01 0.600 0.171 0.367 0.443 OK
Hunter FeducciaC 246215 0.242 170.347 54010 11 0.000 0.246 0.333 0.358 OK
Alex Freeland2B 8322653 0.235 4210.314 53010 21 0.000 0.213 0.299 0.331 OK
Miguel RojasSS 8920655 0.267 3200.298 54110 10 0.250 0.268 0.309 0.375 OK
TEAM TOTALS 463811 99 89 0.289

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Dane MyersCF 9526569 0.260 6250.344 55311 00 0.600 0.245 0.305 0.353 OK
Elly De La CruzDH 130511148 0.290 28740.369 55300 01 0.600 0.290 0.366 0.565 OK
Sal Stewart1B 149572154 0.269 301050.337 54111 12 0.250 0.272 0.332 0.407 OK
Tyler StephensonC 11938295 0.249 15530.330 54000 02 0.000 0.219 0.293 0.363 OK
Juan Brito2B 103213 0.406 290.429 44111 01 0.250 0.271 0.316 0.424 OK
Matt McLainSS 11940576 0.188 15390.277 44111 00 0.250 0.173 0.243 0.321 OK
Héctor RodríguezRF 3311626 0.224 5120.274 44111 01 0.250 0.202 0.242 0.332 OK
Ke'Bryan Hayes3B 6921031 0.148 580.204 44000 02 0.000 0.091 0.141 0.156 OK
TJ FriedlLF 7823539 0.166 4130.248 44100 00 0.250 0.162 0.228 0.246 OK
TEAM TOTALS 403811 55 19 0.289

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Justin WrobleskiStarter 24131.73.83 1.1697.6111 5.06331497 5.0 4 3
Tanner ScottCloser 6554.33.15 1.12312.676 1.22110233 1.2 2 1
Brock StewartSetup Man 2421.12.56 1.1379.021 1.10000217 1.1 2 0
Alex VesiaMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6843.53.52 1.40213.967 1.03110122 1.0 1 1

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Brady SingerStarter 29147.45.50 1.5477.6125 4.275548108 4.2 8 4
Emilio PagánCloser 4138.53.74 1.0659.842 1.01001020 1.0 0 0
Luis MeySetup Man 2427.86.80 1.79914.244 1.01001120 1.0 1 0
Brock BurkeMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 7462.02.76 1.46810.572 1.02442037 1.0 0 4
Tony SantillanMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4237.16.06 1.6718.736 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Tejay AntoneMiddle Reliever 5344.03.27 1.20510.853 0.1000004 0.1 0 0

Game Summary

LAD wins 9-5


Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates

MIL 95-58 (5.18 RPG / 3.89 RA)
6 - 4
PIT 76-77 (4.77 RPG / 4.61 RA)
WINNER: MIL wins 6-4 TARGET: MIL 6 - 4 PIT (MIL) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
MIL100001040610
PIT011000002410

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs7.3
Avg Allowed4.7
Run Diff26
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.1
Avg Allowed4.0
Run Diff-9
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

MIL Season Quality

Record95-57
Win%0.625
Run Diff200
RD/Game1.316

PIT Season Quality

Record75-77
Win%0.493
Run Diff21
RD/Game0.138

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.1696; margin adjustment: -0.4912; applied: True

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brice Turang2B 138533145 0.272 19940.371 53211 21 0.667 0.333 0.438 0.570 OK
Luis LaraCF 4816242 0.259 1240.318 55211 02 0.400 0.262 0.310 0.351 OK
Jackson ChourioLF 115483141 0.292 23670.348 55000 02 0.000 0.270 0.318 0.432 OK
Andrew Vaughn1B 9627788 0.318 6430.394 54000 10 0.000 0.335 0.395 0.478 OK
Gary SánchezDH 7820943 0.206 11350.348 54110 12 0.250 0.209 0.356 0.416 OK
Joey OrtizSS 10933790 0.267 9450.324 55210 02 0.400 0.317 0.367 0.466 OK
Sal FrelickRF 9931573 0.232 4350.292 54112 00 0.250 0.153 0.207 0.225 OK
Bo NaylorC 141 0.250 010.250 43112 12 0.333 0.132 0.180 0.227 OK
David Hamilton3B 10431776 0.240 4250.303 43100 10 0.333 0.257 0.313 0.343 OK
TEAM TOTALS 433610 66 611 0.278

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Konnor GriffinSS 6927171 0.262 5270.315 55000 02 0.000 0.247 0.285 0.363 OK
Oneil CruzCF 8834093 0.274 19640.363 55211 00 0.400 0.266 0.344 0.471 OK
Bryan ReynoldsLF 149553146 0.264 17710.368 54110 11 0.250 0.235 0.319 0.399 OK
Rafael Flores Jr.1B 3712434 0.274 9200.328 54000 12 0.000 0.287 0.333 0.516 OK
Brandon Lowe2B 138538139 0.258 31880.328 55412 00 0.800 0.276 0.340 0.527 OK
Nick GonzalesDH 135511155 0.303 4580.366 54100 11 0.250 0.293 0.346 0.376 OK
Ronny SimonRF 123712 0.324 020.359 43000 10 0.000 0.306 0.341 0.377 OK
Jared Triolo3B 10330574 0.243 3280.316 43100 12 0.333 0.213 0.272 0.274 OK
Henry DavisC 8124239 0.161 9350.249 44111 01 0.250 0.142 0.219 0.281 OK
TEAM TOTALS 423710 44 59 0.270

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Kyle HarrisonStarter 23107.43.77 1.31311.2134 5.042245103 5.0 5 3
Trevor MegillCloser 5856.51.91 0.88510.465 1.02001223 1.0 2 0
Abner UribeSetup Man 5750.92.30 1.1209.956 1.00000114 1.0 1 0
Aaron AshbyMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 7176.13.43 1.49813.1111 1.00000025 1.0 0 1
Antonio SenzatelaMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1914.37.55 1.8887.612 1.04220125 1.0 1 0

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Wilber DotelStarter 1833.73.47 1.2469.636 5.04113699 5.0 6 1
Mason MontgomeryCloser 6355.22.77 1.12315.595 1.01110316 1.0 3 1
Luke WeaverSetup Man 1311.45.53 1.49111.114 1.00002121 1.0 1 0
Gregory SotoMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6357.33.77 1.20411.674 1.05440135 1.0 1 4
Yohan RamírezMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6272.23.37 1.35711.794 1.00001017 1.0 0 0

Game Summary

MIL wins 6-4


Minnesota Twins @ Los Angeles Angels

MIN 71-81 (4.55 RPG / 5.03 RA)
4 - 3
LAA 58-94 (4.04 RPG / 4.55 RA)
WINNER: MIN wins 4-3 TARGET: MIN 4 - 3 LAA (MIN) Confidence: 51.6% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
MIN10000030048
LAA12000000036

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs2.7
Avg Allowed6.1
Run Diff-34
Off Trendcold
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.7
Avg Allowed3.9
Run Diff-2
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

MIN Season Quality

Record71-81
Win%0.467
Run Diff-73
RD/Game-0.480

LAA Season Quality

Record58-94
Win%0.382
Run Diff-78
RD/Game-0.513

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.0786; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Luke KeaschallRF 142494138 0.279 9450.371 55211 01 0.400 0.299 0.375 0.393 OK
Brooks Lee3B 143544134 0.246 23780.296 44111 00 0.250 0.202 0.255 0.335 OK
Kody Clemens2B 134498120 0.241 26760.302 42000 22 0.000 0.229 0.281 0.416 OK
Josh BellDH 145534135 0.253 20880.316 44111 00 0.250 0.220 0.278 0.392 OK
Emmanuel RodriguezLF 5195 0.263 140.300 44000 00 0.000 0.261 0.300 0.552 OK
Royce Lewis1B 11642597 0.228 14540.293 44200 00 0.500 0.210 0.269 0.339 OK
Victor CaratiniC 9930868 0.221 7410.311 44111 00 0.250 0.139 0.213 0.207 OK
Walker JenkinsCF 14454 0.089 150.212 44000 02 0.000 0.090 0.189 0.174 OK
Ben RossSS 461 0.167 000.167 44100 01 0.250 0.186 0.198 0.413 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37358 44 26 0.229

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Zach NetoSS 147585142 0.243 26740.324 44111 01 0.250 0.280 0.343 0.481 OK
Mike TroutDH 133481116 0.241 21520.379 44210 00 0.500 0.233 0.379 0.409 OK
Wade MecklerLF 8226076 0.292 3260.366 44000 00 0.000 0.287 0.363 0.377 OK
Moisés Ballesteros1B 3612929 0.225 3110.282 43000 11 0.000 0.257 0.328 0.405 OK
Denzer Guzman3B 7024857 0.230 7280.271 44000 02 0.000 0.267 0.303 0.379 OK
Josh LoweRF 9828460 0.211 12290.276 43000 02 0.000 0.220 0.278 0.398 OK
Oswald Peraza2B 10332773 0.223 7240.278 43000 01 0.000 0.207 0.246 0.299 OK
Jose SiriCF 8020046 0.230 8280.279 44312 00 0.750 0.242 0.286 0.413 OK
Tyler HeinemanC 328917 0.191 030.234 44000 02 0.000 0.158 0.181 0.217 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36336 33 19 0.182

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Taj BradleyStarter 29163.03.87 1.26410.5190 6.053316107 6.0 6 3
Yoendrys GómezCloser 5240.53.78 1.53110.748 1.00000213 1.0 2 0
Jeff HoffmanSetup Man 1713.82.61 1.23215.724 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
A.J. MinterMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1915.31.76 1.24210.618 1.01000119 1.0 1 0

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Walbert UreñaStarter 27135.02.93 1.2598.7131 5.23112588 5.2 5 1
Ben JoyceCloser 1412.43.63 1.21010.915 1.04220123 1.0 1 2
Ryan WatsonSetup Man 1612.02.25 1.16712.817 1.10000017 1.1 0 0
Tayler SaucedoMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 2314.03.86 1.35713.521 1.01110016 1.0 0 1

Game Summary

MIN wins 4-3


Oakland Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays

OAK 61-92 (4.32 RPG / 5.72 RA)
4 - 7
TB 93-59 (4.59 RPG / 4.07 RA)
WINNER: TB wins 7-4 TARGET: OAK 4 - 7 TB (TB) Confidence: 58.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
OAK00011000245
TB040100101710

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.5
Avg Allowed5.0
Run Diff-15
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak2L

TB Recent Form

Win%0.800
Avg Runs5.3
Avg Allowed2.8
Run Diff25
Off Trendhot
Def Trendstrong
Streak5W

OAK Season Quality

Record61-91
Win%0.401
Run Diff-205
RD/Game-1.349

TB Season Quality

Record92-59
Win%0.609
Run Diff71
RD/Game0.470

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.6832; margin adjustment: 2.6931; applied: True

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Henry BolteLF 105375103 0.275 11340.354 43000 11 0.000 0.259 0.323 0.399 OK
Jeff McNeilDH 132445120 0.270 8540.315 44000 01 0.000 0.262 0.301 0.367 OK
Lawrence ButlerRF 13743499 0.228 16580.314 43000 11 0.000 0.226 0.292 0.431 OK
Zack Gelof3B 9735688 0.247 18460.313 44210 02 0.500 0.190 0.243 0.357 OK
Donovan Walton2B 4611425 0.219 4130.373 42011 11 0.000 0.224 0.302 0.409 OK
Tommy White1B 4516643 0.259 390.275 44112 02 0.250 0.253 0.270 0.352 OK
Alika WilliamsSS 6919651 0.260 4150.293 44100 01 0.250 0.240 0.272 0.403 OK
Jonah HeimC 8529460 0.204 12340.258 44111 00 0.250 0.179 0.224 0.300 OK
Denzel ClarkeCF 256510 0.154 060.214 33000 01 0.000 0.109 0.171 0.155 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35315 44 310 0.161

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Yandy DíazDH 145578173 0.299 22810.364 54112 12 0.250 0.240 0.288 0.366 OK
Jonathan Aranda1B 145547153 0.280 21890.362 55111 01 0.200 0.300 0.366 0.548 OK
Junior Caminero3B 150574160 0.279 41960.363 54210 11 0.500 0.274 0.342 0.549 OK
Liam HicksC 339728 0.289 4170.381 52011 10 0.000 0.160 0.244 0.269 OK
Jonny DeLucaCF 9230883 0.269 9440.301 44111 00 0.250 0.286 0.317 0.428 OK
Chandler SimpsonLF 139539167 0.310 0340.337 44211 00 0.500 0.364 0.389 0.426 OK
Ryan ViladeRF 8021556 0.260 11390.324 44000 01 0.000 0.257 0.325 0.417 OK
Richie Palacios2B 11132375 0.232 10500.326 44100 01 0.250 0.181 0.272 0.350 OK
Taylor WallsSS 11034675 0.217 2330.304 44211 00 0.500 0.208 0.293 0.288 OK
TEAM TOTALS 403510 77 36 0.286

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jeffrey SpringsStarter 27130.86.12 1.4987.2105 4.265536101 4.2 6 4
Seth JohnsonReliever 710.34.37 1.26213.115 1.01000017 1.0 0 0
Chris RoycroftReliever 57.41.22 1.4864.94 1.02110019 1.0 0 1
Hogan HarrisReliever 7155.94.03 1.71713.785 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Luis MedinaReliever 5362.53.31 1.44012.788 1.0111007 0.1 0 1

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Drew RasmussenStarter 28159.42.82 0.9229.0160 6.03221897 6.0 8 2
Bryan BakerCloser 6057.71.40 0.8679.762 1.01000016 1.0 0 0
Kevin KellySetup Man 6760.52.98 1.0589.161 1.00001017 1.0 0 0
Cam BooserMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 3831.02.61 0.96812.242 1.01221220 1.0 2 2

Game Summary

TB wins 7-4


Philadelphia Phillies @ New York Mets

PHI 85-68 (4.47 RPG / 4.25 RA)
3 - 4
NYM 69-84 (4.25 RPG / 4.55 RA)
WINNER: NYM wins 4-3 TARGET: PHI 3 - 4 NYM (NYM) Confidence: 54.4% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
PHI30000000034
NYM03010000x48

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.4
Avg Allowed4.8
Run Diff-4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.8
Avg Allowed5.1
Run Diff7
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak4L

PHI Season Quality

Record84-68
Win%0.553
Run Diff31
RD/Game0.204

NYM Season Quality

Record69-83
Win%0.454
Run Diff-43
RD/Game-0.283

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.3119; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kyle SchwarberDH 144546129 0.236 44940.348 43110 10 0.333 0.210 0.308 0.463 OK
Trea TurnerSS 144601145 0.241 19570.292 42000 20 0.000 0.235 0.280 0.363 OK
Bryce HarperRF 150533144 0.270 28830.385 44000 00 0.000 0.266 0.373 0.492 OK
Luis Arraez2B 3815044 0.293 2170.329 43000 11 0.000 0.310 0.359 0.422 OK
Alec Bohm1B 142530133 0.251 15830.317 44211 01 0.500 0.266 0.338 0.400 OK
Bryson Stott3B 144498123 0.247 10630.325 44112 02 0.250 0.235 0.317 0.358 OK
Brandon MarshLF 142497130 0.262 17580.307 44000 02 0.000 0.188 0.230 0.301 OK
Justin CrawfordCF 134394103 0.261 3360.311 43000 11 0.000 0.279 0.330 0.418 OK
Garrett StubbsC 19549 0.167 030.220 44000 02 0.000 0.111 0.147 0.138 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36314 33 59 0.129

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Francisco LindorSS 9337386 0.231 20470.312 44000 01 0.000 0.218 0.285 0.418 OK
Juan SotoDH 9935898 0.274 25610.388 43000 10 0.000 0.266 0.374 0.498 OK
Bo Bichette3B 146585155 0.265 16740.313 44100 01 0.250 0.248 0.291 0.351 OK
Carson BengeRF 142546146 0.267 18570.332 44000 00 0.000 0.255 0.314 0.409 OK
Jared Young1B 9630481 0.266 8360.330 44200 00 0.500 0.269 0.330 0.429 OK
A.J. EwingCF 109398103 0.259 10380.330 43210 10 0.667 0.272 0.343 0.411 OK
Francisco AlvarezC 10133975 0.221 14350.304 44112 00 0.250 0.192 0.256 0.327 OK
Brett Baty2B 12539291 0.232 10500.297 44111 01 0.250 0.245 0.307 0.394 OK
Nick MorabitoLF 11295 0.172 040.294 32111 10 0.500 0.185 0.260 0.239 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35328 44 33 0.250

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Aaron NolaStarter 30157.64.80 1.4029.4165 6.064413110 6.0 3 4
Jhoan DuranCloser 5654.41.49 0.97412.777 1.01000021 1.0 0 0
Jonathan BowlanMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5851.03.71 1.11812.571 1.01002024 1.0 0 0

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Nolan McLeanStarter 29164.83.28 1.18910.0184 6.042236112 6.0 6 2
Kodai SengaCloser 2957.27.40 1.67811.573 1.00111117 1.0 1 1
Nathan LavenderSetup Man 1712.82.11 1.17215.522 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Jonathan PintaroMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 2027.94.84 1.3629.730 1.00001217 1.0 2 0

Game Summary

NYM wins 4-3


San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies

SD 84-69 (4.37 RPG / 4.17 RA)
8 - 5
COL 56-97 (4.69 RPG / 5.84 RA)
WINNER: SD wins 8-5 TARGET: SD 8 - 5 COL (SD) Confidence: 54.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
SD400200002811
COL00300000259

SD Recent Form

Win%0.900
Avg Runs6.1
Avg Allowed4.5
Run Diff16
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

COL Recent Form

Win%0.100
Avg Runs4.4
Avg Allowed7.6
Run Diff-32
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

SD Season Quality

Record83-69
Win%0.546
Run Diff23
RD/Game0.151

COL Season Quality

Record56-96
Win%0.368
Run Diff-170
RD/Game-1.118

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.5039; margin adjustment: -2.4062; applied: True

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF 148591169 0.286 23770.353 55212 03 0.400 0.295 0.353 0.535 OK
Dustin HarrisCF 154917 0.347 080.377 55110 03 0.200 0.301 0.360 0.417 OK
Manny Machado3B 148551122 0.221 28830.311 55210 00 0.400 0.244 0.326 0.453 OK
Ty France1B 117401118 0.294 20660.359 54211 11 0.500 0.306 0.353 0.483 OK
Jackson MerrillDH 148579148 0.256 25830.304 54215 10 0.500 0.309 0.350 0.514 OK
Xander BogaertsSS 145495110 0.222 11540.323 44010 02 0.000 0.243 0.342 0.325 OK
Luis CampusanoC 6519854 0.273 8290.366 43110 11 0.333 0.258 0.328 0.440 OK
Jake Cronenworth2B 9834274 0.216 5300.298 44110 01 0.250 0.247 0.308 0.317 OK
Samad TaylorLF 3812539 0.312 1130.386 44000 01 0.000 0.294 0.360 0.362 OK
TEAM TOTALS 413811 88 312 0.289

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jake McCarthyCF 131508150 0.295 15790.338 55111 01 0.200 0.282 0.316 0.464 OK
Connor Norby2B 3110230 0.294 3140.385 44110 01 0.250 0.250 0.324 0.398 OK
Cole CarriggSS 8029378 0.266 10450.334 44000 02 0.000 0.252 0.307 0.474 OK
TJ Rumfield1B 143513155 0.302 15680.393 44100 00 0.250 0.317 0.389 0.437 OK
Kyle Karros3B 11837398 0.263 12470.358 44000 02 0.000 0.244 0.324 0.443 OK
Mickey MoniakLF 10637891 0.241 22640.278 44210 01 0.500 0.189 0.223 0.365 OK
Troy JohnstonDH 118379107 0.282 4490.347 44100 00 0.250 0.257 0.310 0.375 OK
Brett SullivanC 6920447 0.230 7320.269 43110 10 0.333 0.202 0.241 0.333 OK
Zac VeenRF 265213 0.250 2120.328 44214 00 0.500 0.237 0.313 0.406 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37369 55 17 0.250

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael KingStarter 30172.23.08 1.1677.7148 6.163316114 6.1 6 3
Mason MillerCloser 6161.31.17 0.89717.5119 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Adrian MorejonSetup Man 7172.83.21 1.19512.4100 1.01000118 1.0 1 0
Bradgley RodriguezMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6258.92.14 1.13811.374 0.22220014 0.2 0 2

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Tanner GordonStarter 2295.75.64 1.5057.681 5.05661594 5.0 5 6
Jordan RomanoCloser 2320.53.51 1.2209.221 1.00000213 1.0 2 0
Brennan BernardinoSetup Man 6848.62.96 1.3588.043 1.01002234 1.0 2 1
Jimmy HergetMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4843.76.59 1.6938.943 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Jaden HillMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4128.25.74 1.87911.837 1.04220225 1.0 2 0

Game Summary

SD wins 8-5