MLB Predictions — September 16, 2026

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
ATL @ CHC	5 - 7	5 - 7	CHC	CHC	CHC wins 7-5	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
BAL @ NYM	5 - 7	5 - 7	NYM	NYM	NYM wins 7-5	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
BOS @ TEX	6 - 5	6 - 5	BOS	BOS	BOS wins 6-5	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CHW @ CLE	4 - 5	4 - 5	CLE	CLE	CLE wins 5-4	56%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
DET @ TOR	7 - 4	7 - 4	DET	DET	DET wins 7-4	58%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
KC @ HOU	5 - 4	5 - 4	KC	KC	KC wins 5-4	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
LAD @ CIN	8 - 4	8 - 4	LAD	LAD	LAD wins 8-4	58%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIA @ ARI	7 - 5	7 - 5	MIA	MIA	MIA wins 7-5	55%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIL @ PIT	5 - 3	5 - 3	MIL	MIL	MIL wins 5-3	56%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
NYY @ MIN	7 - 4	7 - 4	NYY	NYY	NYY wins 7-4	58%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
OAK @ TB	2 - 6	2 - 6	TB	TB	TB wins 6-2	77%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
PHI @ WAS	5 - 4	5 - 4	PHI	PHI	PHI wins 5-4	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SD @ COL	7 - 5	7 - 5	SD	SD	SD wins 7-5	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SEA @ LAA	5 - 4	5 - 4	SEA	SEA	SEA wins 5-4	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SF @ STL	5 - 4	5 - 4	SF	SF	SF wins 5-4	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs

ATL 89-64 (4.6 RPG / 3.88 RA)

5 - 7

CHC 84-68 (5.32 RPG / 4.41 RA)

WINNER: CHC wins 7-5 TARGET: ATL 5 - 7 CHC (CHC) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
ATL	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	7
CHC	0	0	0	1	4	2	0	0	x	7	5

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.2

Avg Allowed4.6

Run Diff-4

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs5.0

Avg Allowed4.9

Run Diff1

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

ATL Season Quality

Record89-63

Win%0.586

Run Diff115

RD/Game0.757

CHC Season Quality

Record84-68

Win%0.553

Run Diff139

RD/Game0.914

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.0678; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ronald Acuña Jr.	RF	98	375	96	0.256	18	49	0.347	5	5	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.258	0.327	0.473	OK
Drake Baldwin	DH	128	503	141	0.280	24	77	0.356	5	3	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.291	0.351	0.475	OK
Matt Olson	1B	151	582	145	0.249	38	83	0.323	4	3	1	1	1	0	2	0.333	0.259	0.324	0.488	OK
Ozzie Albies	2B	151	573	142	0.248	22	71	0.303	4	4	3	1	3	0	0	0.750	0.217	0.265	0.376	OK
Michael Harris II	CF	145	553	162	0.293	25	83	0.317	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.275	0.293	0.425	OK
Mauricio Dubón	LF	143	529	144	0.272	11	69	0.319	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.311	0.357	0.404	OK
Austin Riley	3B	149	526	117	0.222	17	68	0.296	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.207	0.278	0.375	OK
Sean Murphy	C	25	85	17	0.200	3	9	0.261	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.178	0.238	0.311	OK
Ha-Seong Kim	SS	39	111	14	0.126	0	9	0.224	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.147	0.243	0.188	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	34	7	5	5	3	10	0.206

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	150	580	163	0.281	42	102	0.374	4	4	1	1	4	0	0	0.250	0.239	0.304	0.459	OK
Seiya Suzuki	RF	132	503	136	0.270	24	81	0.369	4	3	1	1	0	0	2	0.333	0.240	0.323	0.378	OK
Michael Busch	1B	148	558	134	0.240	18	74	0.348	4	4	0	1	0	0	3	0.000	0.255	0.355	0.424	OK
Alex Bregman	3B	148	582	153	0.263	25	84	0.354	4	4	0	1	0	0	1	0.000	0.242	0.327	0.432	OK
Ian Happ	LF	142	506	111	0.219	23	65	0.328	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.130	0.271	0.246	OK
Nico Hoerner	SS	147	586	156	0.266	8	69	0.316	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.267	0.307	0.350	OK
Michael Conforto	DH	100	241	57	0.237	14	41	0.322	3	3	2	1	3	0	0	0.667	0.148	0.237	0.300	OK
Pedro Ramirez	2B	69	210	55	0.262	6	30	0.320	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.243	0.303	0.427	OK
Carson Kelly	C	108	358	93	0.260	10	56	0.338	3	2	0	1	0	1	1	0.000	0.147	0.224	0.244	OK
TEAM TOTALS									32	29	5	7	7	1	8	0.172

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
JR Ritchie	Starter	14	56.6	4.61	1.466	8.4	53	4.1	3	5	5	1	6	80	4.1	6	4
Raisel Iglesias	Closer	55	53.9	2.84	1.187	9.5	57	1.1	2	2	2	0	0	24	1.1	0	2
Dylan Lee	Setup Man	67	55.6	3.24	1.025	12.1	75	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	8	0.2	1	0
Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	54	63.3	2.42	1.137	12.4	87	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	33	1.2	1	0

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Shota Imanaga	Starter	29	159.3	3.95	1.142	8.8	156	5.1	4	5	5	0	4	91	5.1	4	5
Jacob Webb	Closer	65	56.9	3.95	1.424	10.8	68	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	21	1.0	1	0
Ryan Zeferjahn	Setup Man	16	11.3	7.17	2.035	11.9	15	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	28	23.0	4.30	1.391	10.2	26	1.0	1	0	0	1	3	20	1.0	3	0
Caleb Thielbar	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	54	37.8	5.71	1.587	13.8	58	0.2	2	0	0	0	1	14	0.2	1	0

Game Summary

CHC wins 7-5

Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets

BAL 75-78 (4.5 RPG / 4.67 RA)

5 - 7

NYM 69-83 (4.28 RPG / 4.56 RA)

WINNER: NYM wins 7-5 TARGET: BAL 5 - 7 NYM (NYM) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BAL	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	3	0	5	7
NYM	2	2	0	0	1	0	0	1	1	7	8

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.1

Avg Allowed5.1

Run Diff-10

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak2W

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs6.2

Avg Allowed5.3

Run Diff9

Off Trendhot

Def Trendweak

Streak3L

BAL Season Quality

Record74-78

Win%0.487

Run Diff-32

RD/Game-0.211

NYM Season Quality

Record69-82

Win%0.457

Run Diff-37

RD/Game-0.245

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.0576; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Dylan Beavers	LF	91	288	70	0.243	7	38	0.313	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.157	0.229	0.293	OK
Pete Alonso	1B	149	558	150	0.269	36	101	0.363	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.251	0.336	0.501	OK
Gunnar Henderson	SS	146	581	129	0.222	22	57	0.308	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.245	0.324	0.425	OK
Coby Mayo	DH	116	376	86	0.229	24	63	0.292	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.237	0.290	0.496	OK
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	3B	48	165	42	0.255	8	31	0.303	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.251	0.289	0.452	OK
Samuel Basallo	C	104	343	77	0.224	17	51	0.291	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.136	0.202	0.236	OK
Jeremiah Jackson	2B	79	241	54	0.224	7	34	0.250	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.206	0.227	0.367	OK
Rece Hinds	RF	6	12	3	0.250	0	1	0.333	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.182	0.239	0.294	OK
Colton Cowser	CF	118	313	68	0.217	12	36	0.301	4	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.222	0.300	0.342	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	34	7	5	5	2	9	0.206

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Francisco Lindor	SS	92	369	85	0.230	20	47	0.312	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.207	0.273	0.411	OK
Juan Soto	LF	98	354	98	0.277	25	61	0.392	4	4	3	1	1	0	0	0.750	0.281	0.375	0.495	OK
Bo Bichette	3B	145	581	154	0.265	16	74	0.313	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.252	0.292	0.355	OK
Carson Benge	RF	141	542	146	0.269	18	57	0.334	4	4	0	1	0	0	1	0.000	0.264	0.325	0.421	OK
Jared Young	1B	95	301	80	0.266	8	36	0.328	4	4	0	1	0	0	1	0.000	0.260	0.317	0.430	OK
Marcus Semien	2B	127	450	101	0.224	14	47	0.291	4	3	0	1	0	1	2	0.000	0.234	0.300	0.330	OK
A.J. Ewing	CF	108	394	101	0.256	10	38	0.328	4	4	2	1	3	0	0	0.500	0.272	0.347	0.435	OK
Brett Baty	DH	124	388	90	0.232	10	50	0.297	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.248	0.311	0.422	OK
Luis Torrens	C	78	234	58	0.248	9	40	0.307	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.162	0.213	0.332	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	33	8	7	7	1	5	0.242

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Chris Bassitt	Starter	18	86.6	5.09	1.663	6.9	66	5.0	6	5	5	1	3	86	5.0	3	4
Andrew Kittredge	Closer	53	42.0	4.07	1.548	8.1	38	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Rico Garcia	Setup Man	71	55.0	2.78	1.055	10.6	65	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	16	1.0	1	1
Yennier Cano	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	62	36.2	2.98	1.160	10.4	42	1.1	1	1	1	0	1	16	1.0	1	1

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Xzavion Curry	Starter	8	17.4	3.62	1.379	6.2	12	5.0	4	1	1	1	4	91	5.0	4	1
Kodai Senga	Closer	29	57.2	7.40	1.678	11.5	73	1.0	1	1	1	0	3	16	1.0	3	1
Daniel Duarte	Setup Man	24	26.4	2.39	0.909	10.2	30	1.1	2	3	3	1	2	27	1.1	2	3
Nathan Lavender	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	17	12.8	2.11	1.172	15.5	22	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	24	1.2	0	0

Game Summary

NYM wins 7-5

Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers

BOS 82-69 (4.4 RPG / 3.83 RA)

6 - 5

TEX 75-76 (4.16 RPG / 4.44 RA)

WINNER: BOS wins 6-5 TARGET: BOS 6 - 5 TEX (BOS) Confidence: 52.8% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BOS	0	2	0	1	0	0	0	0	3	6	6
TEX	0	0	2	0	0	1	0	0	2	5	7

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs3.2

Avg Allowed2.4

Run Diff8

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak1L

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs5.0

Avg Allowed5.0

Run Diff0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak3W

BOS Season Quality

Record82-69

Win%0.543

Run Diff86

RD/Game0.570

TEX Season Quality

Record75-76

Win%0.497

Run Diff-42

RD/Game-0.278

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.6396; margin adjustment: -0.2686; applied: True

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Roman Anthony	LF	45	175	42	0.240	4	10	0.338	5	4	1	1	3	1	1	0.250	0.230	0.302	0.360	OK
Jahmai Jones	DH	24	42	17	0.405	3	8	0.457	5	4	1	1	2	1	2	0.250	0.140	0.199	0.267	OK
Wilyer Abreu	RF	144	547	141	0.258	23	73	0.337	5	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.227	0.300	0.416	OK
Willson Contreras	1B	123	431	119	0.276	26	79	0.387	5	5	1	1	0	0	1	0.200	0.259	0.356	0.470	OK
Adley Rutschman	C	23	83	16	0.193	4	10	0.264	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.234	0.298	0.418	OK
Caleb Durbin	3B	137	464	113	0.244	13	61	0.324	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.264	0.328	0.416	OK
Trevor Story	SS	55	221	53	0.240	3	25	0.270	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.249	0.278	0.351	OK
Isiah Kiner-Falefa	2B	47	138	37	0.268	2	16	0.340	4	3	0	1	1	0	1	0.000	0.171	0.256	0.238	OK
Nate Eaton	CF	14	38	5	0.132	1	5	0.250	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.147	0.238	0.275	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	32	6	6	6	6	7	0.188

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Justin Foscue	2B	86	209	56	0.268	11	33	0.319	5	5	2	1	3	0	2	0.400	0.232	0.288	0.395	OK
Corey Seager	SS	90	338	79	0.234	18	45	0.325	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.247	0.318	0.440	OK
Josh Jung	3B	95	367	108	0.294	9	37	0.359	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.265	0.316	0.367	OK
Jake Burger	1B	143	517	120	0.232	26	83	0.302	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.196	0.282	0.368	OK
Brandon Nimmo	RF	145	555	146	0.263	14	60	0.327	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.239	0.292	0.362	OK
Wyatt Langford	LF	99	377	90	0.239	17	39	0.325	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.185	0.266	0.372	OK
Ezequiel Duran	CF	140	499	135	0.271	17	80	0.332	4	4	2	1	0	0	2	0.500	0.252	0.308	0.397	OK
Elias Díaz	DH	61	183	44	0.240	5	28	0.264	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.244	0.265	0.399	OK
Danny Jansen	C	55	167	32	0.192	6	21	0.282	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.219	0.280	0.383	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	34	7	5	5	3	11	0.206

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jake Bennett	Starter	18	102.2	3.79	1.096	7.3	83	5.2	4	3	3	0	5	95	5.2	5	3
Aroldis Chapman	Closer	51	50.2	1.43	1.076	12.2	68	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	28	1.1	2	0
Erik Miller	Setup Man	15	14.2	1.27	1.197	15.8	25	1.0	1	0	0	1	2	20	1.0	2	0
Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	51	48.5	1.86	0.845	10.8	58	1.0	2	2	2	2	2	27	1.0	2	2

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
MacKenzie Gore	Starter	31	157.7	4.74	1.389	9.8	172	5.0	3	3	3	4	2	100	5.0	2	3
Jacob Latz	Closer	53	62.9	1.72	0.811	10.9	76	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	29	1.1	0	0
Jakob Junis	Setup Man	47	46.6	2.90	1.266	6.8	35	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13	1.0	2	0
Chase Silseth	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	19	13.3	5.41	1.805	12.2	18	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	14	1.0	1	0
Tyler Alexander	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	68	57.8	3.89	1.471	8.9	57	0.2	3	3	3	2	2	25	0.2	2	3

Game Summary

BOS wins 6-5

Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians

CHW 77-75 (4.68 RPG / 4.45 RA)

4 - 5

CLE 78-75 (4.12 RPG / 4.17 RA)

WINNER: CLE wins 5-4 TARGET: CHW 4 - 5 CLE (CLE) Confidence: 55.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHW	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	2	0	4	9
CLE	0	0	0	0	0	5	0	0	x	5	7

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs4.2

Avg Allowed4.7

Run Diff-5

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.8

Avg Allowed4.9

Run Diff-1

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

CHW Season Quality

Record77-74

Win%0.510

Run Diff37

RD/Game0.245

CLE Season Quality

Record77-75

Win%0.507

Run Diff-10

RD/Game-0.066

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.1101; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Chase Meidroth	2B	144	534	143	0.268	14	56	0.343	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.265	0.334	0.439	OK
Randal Grichuk	LF	91	202	61	0.302	13	37	0.330	5	5	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.302	0.329	0.572	OK
Miguel Vargas	1B	148	554	138	0.249	31	84	0.357	5	4	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.248	0.345	0.452	OK
Tommy Pham	DH	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	5	5	3	1	2	0	1	0.600	0.051	0.065	0.085
Kyle Teel	C	28	85	17	0.200	4	18	0.299	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.207	0.309	0.369	OK
Brenton Doyle	CF	24	61	14	0.230	2	7	0.230	4	3	2	1	0	0	1	0.667	0.232	0.274	0.349	OK
Colson Montgomery	3B	143	535	109	0.204	31	84	0.289	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.175	0.261	0.366	OK
Luisangel Acuña	SS	75	197	46	0.234	1	12	0.271	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.162	0.207	0.211	OK
Tristan Peters	RF	137	409	114	0.279	12	54	0.341	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.267	0.318	0.435	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	36	9	4	4	3	9	0.250

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Steven Kwan	LF	136	493	138	0.280	3	30	0.375	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.308	0.396	0.415	OK
José Ramírez	3B	112	423	96	0.227	11	48	0.318	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.187	0.263	0.281	OK
Jo Adell	RF	37	139	33	0.237	6	27	0.314	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.229	0.258	0.432	OK
Travis Bazzana	DH	111	404	100	0.248	14	54	0.340	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.275	0.360	0.492	OK
David Fry	1B	75	160	31	0.194	7	15	0.291	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.197	0.280	0.374	OK
Angel Genao	2B	30	110	24	0.218	2	6	0.271	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.208	0.254	0.290	OK
Austin Hedges	C	69	200	51	0.255	5	23	0.326	3	3	0	1	1	0	0	0.000	0.231	0.304	0.355	OK
Petey Halpin	CF	59	158	32	0.203	3	10	0.244	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.195	0.233	0.286	OK
Brayan Rocchio	SS	141	494	123	0.249	11	61	0.308	3	3	2	0	0	0	0	0.667	0.267	0.315	0.379	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	31	7	5	5	2	5	0.226

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Anthony Kay	Starter	30	140.1	4.69	1.413	7.6	118	4.2	7	5	5	2	4	88	4.2	4	5
Grant Taylor	Closer	41	51.9	2.60	1.118	13.2	76	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	12	1.2	0	0
Sean Newcomb	Setup Man	53	73.6	3.18	1.277	9.5	78	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	21	1.2	1	0

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Parker Messick	Starter	29	165.8	2.61	1.074	9.7	178	6.0	6	2	2	2	7	114	6.0	7	2
Cade Smith	Closer	63	63.7	2.26	1.083	13.6	96	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	27	1.1	0	0
Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	61	45.8	3.14	1.376	10.4	53	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	22	1.0	0	2
Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	54	35.1	3.33	1.311	17.9	70	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	8	0.2	2	0

Game Summary

CLE wins 5-4

Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays

DET 72-80 (4.49 RPG / 3.99 RA)

7 - 4

TOR 76-77 (4.05 RPG / 4.29 RA)

WINNER: DET wins 7-4 TARGET: DET 7 - 4 TOR (DET) Confidence: 58.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
DET	0	2	0	0	0	0	3	2	0	7	10
TOR	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	4	7

DET Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs6.3

Avg Allowed2.8

Run Diff35

Off Trendhot

Def Trendstrong

Streak6W

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.9

Avg Allowed4.6

Run Diff-7

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2L

DET Season Quality

Record72-79

Win%0.477

Run Diff80

RD/Game0.530

TOR Season Quality

Record75-77

Win%0.493

Run Diff-41

RD/Game-0.270

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.8535; margin adjustment: -0.3585; applied: True

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Kevin McGonigle	3B	144	552	151	0.274	17	65	0.377	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.280	0.388	0.462	OK
Hao-Yu Lee	2B	97	283	74	0.261	9	42	0.318	5	4	1	1	1	1	1	0.250	0.246	0.315	0.443	OK
Colt Keith	DH	132	375	95	0.253	10	35	0.310	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.250	0.299	0.409	OK
Riley Greene	LF	128	471	135	0.287	20	72	0.373	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.333	0.401	0.551	OK
Dillon Dingler	C	135	513	126	0.246	27	88	0.305	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.226	0.258	0.399	OK
Max Clark	CF	40	140	37	0.264	3	20	0.344	4	3	0	1	0	1	1	0.000	0.275	0.331	0.438	OK
Spencer Torkelson	1B	146	492	109	0.222	23	70	0.315	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.248	0.334	0.511	OK
Brett Callahan	RF	22	53	12	0.226	1	8	0.276	4	4	3	1	2	0	1	0.750	0.232	0.275	0.382	OK
John Peck	SS	11	37	9	0.243	0	7	0.370	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.241	0.345	0.320	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	37	10	7	7	2	10	0.270

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Brett Bateman	CF	33	134	44	0.328	2	11	0.397	5	4	1	1	0	1	1	0.250	0.278	0.335	0.397	OK
Nathan Lukes	RF	112	380	104	0.274	10	36	0.320	5	5	1	1	1	0	1	0.200	0.269	0.298	0.352	OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	1B	136	517	135	0.261	9	56	0.330	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.239	0.307	0.364	OK
George Springer	DH	115	434	110	0.253	15	51	0.330	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.256	0.330	0.408	OK
Kazuma Okamoto	3B	145	534	126	0.236	33	88	0.310	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.252	0.320	0.565	OK
Josh Smith	2B	23	49	12	0.245	5	7	0.356	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.178	0.275	0.311	OK
Ernie Clement	SS	147	557	150	0.269	9	46	0.297	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.244	0.277	0.343	OK
Brandon Valenzuela	C	74	227	49	0.216	8	21	0.298	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.185	0.271	0.295	OK
Myles Straw	LF	114	269	62	0.230	3	23	0.289	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.208	0.275	0.304	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	34	7	4	4	4	4	0.206

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Keider Montero	Starter	30	142.8	3.66	1.057	6.2	98	5.2	6	3	3	1	4	102	5.2	4	3
Kenley Jansen	Closer	46	38.5	3.27	1.169	11.2	48	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	1.0	0	0
Tyler Holton	Setup Man	64	59.6	3.17	1.426	8.3	55	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	21	1.1	0	0
Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	60	52.5	4.29	1.752	8.1	47	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	20	1.0	0	1

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Max Scherzer	Starter	15	65.8	6.57	1.413	7.0	51	5.0	5	4	4	1	6	87	5.0	6	3
Louis Varland	Closer	68	69.4	1.43	1.095	12.1	93	1.1	3	1	1	1	0	30	1.1	0	1
Tyler Rogers	Setup Man	70	63.0	1.86	1.238	5.4	38	1.0	2	2	2	0	2	19	1.0	2	2
Spencer Miles	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	46	82.9	2.93	1.146	9.3	86	1.2	0	0	0	0	2	21	1.2	2	0

Game Summary

DET wins 7-4

Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros

KC 66-85 (4.21 RPG / 4.85 RA)

5 - 4

HOU 76-75 (4.46 RPG / 4.79 RA)

WINNER: KC wins 5-4 TARGET: KC 5 - 4 HOU (KC) Confidence: 50.6% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	R	H
KC	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	5	9
HOU	0	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	4	10

KC Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.0

Avg Allowed4.1

Run Diff-11

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak3L

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.4

Avg Allowed4.7

Run Diff-13

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

KC Season Quality

Record66-85

Win%0.437

Run Diff-96

RD/Game-0.636

HOU Season Quality

Record76-75

Win%0.503

Run Diff-51

RD/Game-0.338

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.2905; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Carter Jensen	C	138	490	114	0.233	24	73	0.319	6	6	1	0	0	0	2	0.167	0.245	0.313	0.494	OK
Bobby Witt Jr.	SS	131	512	143	0.279	18	53	0.357	6	5	2	1	1	1	1	0.400	0.273	0.346	0.443	OK
Vinnie Pasquantino	1B	103	379	91	0.240	12	49	0.328	6	6	1	1	2	0	0	0.167	0.229	0.309	0.413	OK
Salvador Perez	DH	140	538	125	0.232	19	72	0.277	6	6	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.190	0.225	0.297	OK
Michael Massey	2B	118	381	106	0.278	11	45	0.312	5	5	1	1	1	0	2	0.200	0.260	0.292	0.371	OK
Nick Loftin	RF	109	348	80	0.230	7	42	0.311	5	4	2	1	0	1	0	0.500	0.209	0.279	0.339	OK
John Rave	CF	38	110	24	0.218	5	11	0.301	5	5	1	1	1	0	1	0.200	0.213	0.303	0.421	OK
Josh Rojas	3B	36	97	23	0.237	2	13	0.267	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.129	0.156	0.209	OK
Isaac Collins	LF	133	414	91	0.220	6	40	0.326	5	4	1	0	0	1	2	0.250	0.174	0.299	0.276	OK
TEAM TOTALS									49	45	9	5	5	4	12	0.200

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jeremy Peña	SS	100	400	109	0.272	19	49	0.325	6	5	1	0	0	1	1	0.200	0.265	0.302	0.493	OK
Yordan Alvarez	DH	146	521	163	0.313	39	98	0.432	6	6	3	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.251	0.376	0.522	OK
Isaac Paredes	3B	143	519	132	0.254	21	85	0.354	6	4	1	0	0	2	0	0.250	0.237	0.308	0.456	OK
Jose Altuve	2B	123	478	116	0.243	15	44	0.302	6	5	1	1	1	1	1	0.200	0.224	0.275	0.343	OK
Yainer Diaz	C	81	295	81	0.275	11	36	0.308	6	6	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.290	0.323	0.407	OK
Christian Walker	1B	144	529	119	0.225	25	80	0.299	6	6	2	1	0	0	1	0.333	0.180	0.245	0.319	OK
Cam Smith	RF	138	476	102	0.214	20	53	0.278	6	5	0	0	0	1	3	0.000	0.208	0.264	0.432	OK
Daulton Varsho	CF	36	136	24	0.176	4	13	0.233	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.191	0.242	0.314	OK
Jorge Barrosa	LF	3	5	1	0.200	0	0	0.200	5	5	2	1	1	0	2	0.400	0.218	0.268	0.359	OK
TEAM TOTALS									52	46	10	4	4	6	12	0.217

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Daniel Lynch IV	Starter	53	65.6	3.84	1.204	6.7	49	5.0	2	1	1	3	5	89	5.0	5	1
Steven Cruz	Closer	53	51.0	4.41	1.353	10.4	59	2.1	1	0	0	2	1	40	1.2	1	0
Nate Pearson	Setup Man	21	21.3	1.27	0.986	9.3	22	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	17	1.1	2	0
Craig Kimbrel	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	12	10.4	4.33	1.538	6.9	8	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	19	1.0	1	0
Alex Lange	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	55	52.7	6.49	1.689	9.6	56	1.2	4	2	2	0	1	33	0.0	1	2
Nolan Hoffman	Reliever	5	5.1	5.29	0.980	7.1	4	0.2	1	1	1	1	2	15	0.0	2	1

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Cristian Javier	Starter	15	54.5	5.61	1.486	9.1	55	4.2	5	2	2	3	4	88	4.2	4	2
Josh Hader	Closer	42	41.4	0.65	0.604	12.0	55	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	0.2	1	0
Bryan Abreu	Setup Man	61	53.5	4.21	1.458	13.0	77	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13	1.0	2	0
AJ Blubaugh	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	59	85.4	3.48	1.288	9.6	91	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	21	1.2	1	0
Enyel De Los Santos	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	64	58.2	5.26	1.426	9.6	62	1.0	2	1	1	1	2	23	1.0	2	1
Bennett Sousa	Middle Reliever	29	21.1	6.40	1.943	11.5	27	2.0	1	1	1	0	1	28	0.0	1	1
Ronel Blanco	Reliever	7	29.8	7.55	1.510	7.9	26	0.1	1	1	1	0	1	7	0.0	1	1

Game Summary

KC wins 5-4

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds

LAD 92-60 (4.94 RPG / 3.8 RA)

8 - 4

CIN 71-81 (4.15 RPG / 5.12 RA)

WINNER: LAD wins 8-4 TARGET: LAD 8 - 4 CIN (LAD) Confidence: 58.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
LAD	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	2	2	8	13
CIN	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2	0	4	10

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs5.7

Avg Allowed2.9

Run Diff28

Off Trendhot

Def Trendstrong

Streak2W

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.7

Avg Allowed7.8

Run Diff-41

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak2L

LAD Season Quality

Record92-59

Win%0.609

Run Diff177

RD/Game1.172

CIN Season Quality

Record70-81

Win%0.464

Run Diff-152

RD/Game-1.007

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -2.0511; margin adjustment: -3.2818; applied: True

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Tommy Edman	CF	70	252	63	0.250	6	32	0.330	5	5	1	1	0	0	2	0.200	0.240	0.297	0.365	OK
Mookie Betts	SS	111	437	108	0.247	20	62	0.308	5	4	1	1	0	1	0	0.250	0.240	0.302	0.438	OK
Will Smith	C	62	208	49	0.236	7	28	0.328	5	5	2	1	0	0	0	0.400	0.232	0.317	0.366	OK
Freddie Freeman	1B	142	534	158	0.296	16	64	0.374	5	5	2	1	2	0	0	0.400	0.282	0.354	0.411	OK
Teoscar Hernández	DH	112	395	105	0.266	15	61	0.334	5	5	2	1	1	0	3	0.400	0.289	0.363	0.495	OK
Miguel Rojas	2B	88	205	55	0.268	3	20	0.296	4	4	3	1	2	0	1	0.750	0.246	0.277	0.367	OK
Kyle Tucker	RF	139	495	112	0.226	15	66	0.322	4	4	0	1	0	0	1	0.000	0.209	0.320	0.426	OK
Enrique Hernández	3B	30	71	16	0.225	3	10	0.286	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.237	0.300	0.407	OK
Alex Call	LF	68	156	37	0.237	1	19	0.339	4	4	2	1	3	0	1	0.500	0.174	0.270	0.247	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	40	13	8	8	1	10	0.325

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Dane Myers	CF	94	260	68	0.262	5	24	0.347	5	5	2	1	0	0	1	0.400	0.201	0.281	0.276	OK
Elly De La Cruz	SS	129	508	147	0.289	27	72	0.368	5	4	1	1	1	1	2	0.250	0.301	0.373	0.578	OK
Sal Stewart	1B	148	568	151	0.266	30	104	0.334	5	5	1	0	0	0	2	0.200	0.237	0.301	0.367	OK
Tyler Stephenson	DH	118	379	94	0.248	15	53	0.329	5	4	1	1	1	1	0	0.250	0.226	0.306	0.391	OK
Eugenio Suárez	3B	115	401	86	0.214	24	68	0.307	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.212	0.298	0.445	OK
Juan Brito	RF	9	29	10	0.345	2	8	0.375	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.235	0.283	0.390	OK
JJ Bleday	LF	119	423	92	0.217	22	56	0.327	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.172	0.277	0.307	OK
Jose Trevino	C	44	140	30	0.214	5	17	0.218	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.102	0.111	0.172	OK
Matt McLain	2B	118	401	75	0.187	15	39	0.278	4	3	2	1	2	1	0	0.667	0.139	0.215	0.271	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	37	10	4	4	3	10	0.270

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Blake Snell	Starter	7	37.2	1.94	1.102	12.3	51	6.0	3	0	0	3	7	109	6.0	7	0
Tanner Scott	Closer	65	54.3	3.15	1.123	12.6	76	0.2	1	1	1	0	1	11	0.2	1	1
Brock Stewart	Setup Man	24	21.1	2.56	1.137	9.0	21	1.0	3	1	1	0	1	32	1.0	1	1
Alex Vesia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	67	43.3	3.53	1.386	13.9	67	1.0	3	2	2	0	0	34	1.0	0	2
Jack Dreyer	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	62	49.0	3.49	1.265	12.5	68	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	4	0.1	1	0

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Andrew Abbott	Starter	30	151.3	4.88	1.494	7.1	120	4.1	3	1	1	1	7	80	4.1	7	1
Emilio Pagán	Closer	40	37.5	3.84	1.067	9.4	39	2.0	4	3	3	0	0	39	2.0	0	2
Luis Mey	Setup Man	24	27.8	6.80	1.799	14.2	44	1.0	4	2	2	0	2	25	1.0	2	2
Brock Burke	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	73	61.0	2.80	1.475	10.6	72	1.2	2	2	2	0	1	27	1.2	1	2

Game Summary

LAD wins 8-4

Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks

MIA 75-77 (4.45 RPG / 4.41 RA)

7 - 5

ARI 80-72 (4.44 RPG / 4.43 RA)

WINNER: MIA wins 7-5 TARGET: MIA 7 - 5 ARI (MIA) Confidence: 55.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIA	0	2	0	1	0	1	0	0	3	7	9
ARI	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	4	0	5	5

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs6.1

Avg Allowed6.3

Run Diff-2

Off Trendhot

Def Trendweak

Streak1W

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.6

Avg Allowed4.2

Run Diff4

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

MIA Season Quality

Record75-77

Win%0.493

Run Diff7

RD/Game0.046

ARI Season Quality

Record80-72

Win%0.526

Run Diff1

RD/Game0.007

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.0806; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Kyle Stowers	1B	114	422	101	0.239	19	61	0.328	5	4	1	1	3	0	1	0.250	0.211	0.288	0.383	OK
Heriberto Hernández	LF	118	408	92	0.225	24	63	0.306	5	4	1	1	1	1	0	0.250	0.207	0.270	0.362	OK
Otto Lopez	SS	148	590	180	0.305	10	69	0.347	5	5	2	1	0	0	2	0.400	0.294	0.339	0.399	OK
Griffin Conine	DH	80	248	65	0.262	16	37	0.351	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.269	0.344	0.492	OK
Javier Sanoja	3B	123	421	123	0.292	9	63	0.327	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.289	0.319	0.470	OK
Jakob Marsee	CF	142	486	109	0.224	10	37	0.340	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.239	0.323	0.384	OK
Xavier Edwards	2B	137	508	144	0.283	6	52	0.362	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.258	0.335	0.324	OK
Joe Mack	C	94	283	67	0.237	13	46	0.286	4	3	1	1	3	1	1	0.333	0.252	0.296	0.416	OK
Esteury Ruiz	RF	81	191	43	0.225	6	15	0.304	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.144	0.190	0.263	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	36	9	7	7	2	8	0.250

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Lars Nootbaar	LF	30	93	23	0.247	3	10	0.352	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.252	0.348	0.388	OK
Ketel Marte	2B	130	523	131	0.250	22	74	0.316	4	3	1	1	2	1	1	0.333	0.245	0.294	0.404	OK
Gabriel Moreno	C	121	439	133	0.303	14	74	0.382	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.304	0.370	0.489	OK
Geraldo Perdomo	SS	146	522	131	0.251	9	49	0.359	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.259	0.364	0.346	OK
Corbin Carroll	RF	145	541	131	0.242	21	67	0.334	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.238	0.309	0.481	OK
Nolan Arenado	3B	141	490	118	0.241	25	73	0.319	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.287	0.355	0.551	OK
Jesús Sánchez	DH	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.256	0.294	0.395
Pavin Smith	1B	30	86	13	0.151	1	7	0.229	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.165	0.234	0.230	OK
Tim Tawa	CF	85	274	67	0.245	10	38	0.300	4	3	0	0	0	1	3	0.000	0.253	0.314	0.428	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	32	5	5	5	5	9	0.156

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Ryan Gusto	Starter	21	75.3	4.30	1.461	7.8	65	4.2	1	1	1	4	5	90	4.2	5	1
Calvin Faucher	Closer	65	56.4	3.99	1.507	10.9	68	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	18	1.1	0	0
Tyler Zuber	Setup Man	42	31.6	5.98	1.646	11.7	41	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	61	54.8	3.45	1.241	12.2	74	1.0	3	4	4	1	1	26	1.0	1	4
Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	16	15.8	6.27	1.709	7.4	13	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13	1.0	2	0

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Merrill Kelly	Starter	27	149.2	5.07	1.488	6.2	102	5.1	5	4	4	1	6	98	5.1	6	3
Brandyn Garcia	Closer	36	26.8	2.01	0.784	12.1	36	1.1	0	0	0	1	0	29	1.1	0	0
Juan Morillo	Setup Man	48	40.4	2.90	1.114	12.3	55	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	48	40.8	3.09	1.225	7.1	32	1.1	4	3	3	0	1	29	1.1	1	3

Game Summary

MIA wins 7-5

Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates

MIL 95-57 (5.18 RPG / 3.87 RA)

5 - 3

PIT 75-77 (4.76 RPG / 4.62 RA)

WINNER: MIL wins 5-3 TARGET: MIL 5 - 3 PIT (MIL) Confidence: 56.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
MIL	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	6
PIT	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	3	7

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs7.8

Avg Allowed5.0

Run Diff28

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs2.8

Avg Allowed3.5

Run Diff-7

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

MIL Season Quality

Record94-57

Win%0.623

Run Diff199

RD/Game1.318

PIT Season Quality

Record75-76

Win%0.497

Run Diff22

RD/Game0.146

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.1366; margin adjustment: -0.4774; applied: True

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Brice Turang	2B	137	529	144	0.272	19	93	0.371	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.298	0.422	0.537	OK
Jackson Chourio	LF	114	478	140	0.293	23	67	0.350	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.276	0.324	0.461	OK
Jake Bauers	RF	129	437	117	0.268	25	81	0.388	4	3	1	1	2	1	0	0.333	0.269	0.385	0.505	OK
William Contreras	C	136	528	143	0.271	17	85	0.341	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.263	0.328	0.491	OK
Christian Yelich	DH	106	398	93	0.234	11	52	0.316	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.231	0.308	0.382	OK
Joey Ortiz	3B	108	333	89	0.267	9	45	0.325	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.308	0.359	0.462	OK
Luis Lara	CF	47	158	41	0.259	1	24	0.320	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.266	0.317	0.363	OK
Andrew Vaughn	1B	95	275	87	0.316	6	42	0.393	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.309	0.376	0.453	OK
Cooper Pratt	SS	60	192	52	0.271	3	29	0.335	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0.333	0.276	0.342	0.365	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	33	6	5	5	2	5	0.182

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Konnor Griffin	SS	68	266	69	0.259	5	27	0.314	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.225	0.265	0.337	OK
Brandon Lowe	2B	137	535	137	0.256	30	86	0.325	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.248	0.308	0.437	OK
Bryan Reynolds	DH	148	549	146	0.266	17	71	0.371	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.257	0.350	0.424	OK
Oneil Cruz	CF	87	336	91	0.271	18	63	0.362	4	3	1	1	1	1	2	0.333	0.246	0.327	0.410	OK
Rafael Flores Jr.	C	36	120	33	0.275	8	19	0.331	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.306	0.349	0.457	OK
Ryan O'Hearn	1B	95	362	99	0.273	18	71	0.334	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.251	0.312	0.438	OK
Ronny Simon	RF	11	33	10	0.303	0	2	0.343	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.289	0.328	0.338	OK
Jacob Gonzalez	3B	42	106	21	0.198	2	9	0.225	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.224	0.268	0.324	OK
Jake Mangum	LF	114	401	114	0.284	4	30	0.337	4	4	0	1	1	0	1	0.000	0.263	0.303	0.350	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	34	7	3	3	2	7	0.206

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Logan Henderson	Starter	16	87.4	2.37	0.789	10.2	99	6.0	4	1	1	1	6	94	6.0	6	1
Trevor Megill	Closer	57	55.5	1.95	0.901	10.2	63	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	20	1.0	0	1
Abner Uribe	Setup Man	56	49.9	2.34	1.122	10.1	56	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	71	76.1	3.43	1.498	13.1	111	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	19	1.0	0	1

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jared Jones	Starter	18	84.5	4.15	1.183	10.7	100	5.0	6	5	5	2	1	93	5.0	1	5
Mason Montgomery	Closer	63	55.2	2.77	1.123	15.5	95	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Luke Weaver	Setup Man	13	11.4	5.53	1.491	11.1	14	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	63	57.3	3.77	1.204	11.6	74	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Yohan Ramírez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	61	71.2	3.41	1.376	11.6	92	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13	1.0	2	0

Game Summary

MIL wins 5-3

New York Yankees @ Minnesota Twins

NYY 88-64 (4.59 RPG / 3.69 RA)

7 - 4

MIN 71-81 (4.55 RPG / 5.03 RA)

WINNER: NYY wins 7-4 TARGET: NYY 7 - 4 MIN (NYY) Confidence: 58.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
NYY	1	1	0	2	0	0	1	1	1	7	12
MIN	1	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	4	6

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs5.5

Avg Allowed3.2

Run Diff23

Off Trendhot

Def Trendstrong

Streak3W

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs2.8

Avg Allowed6.1

Run Diff-33

Off Trendcold

Def Trendweak

Streak3L

NYY Season Quality

Record88-63

Win%0.583

Run Diff137

RD/Game0.907

MIN Season Quality

Record70-81

Win%0.464

Run Diff-74

RD/Game-0.490

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.4725; margin adjustment: -0.6184; applied: True

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ben Rice	DH	140	526	139	0.264	37	88	0.362	5	5	2	1	1	0	0	0.400	0.294	0.371	0.542	OK
Cody Bellinger	LF	121	453	124	0.274	16	71	0.349	5	5	2	1	1	0	0	0.400	0.319	0.378	0.581	OK
Aaron Judge	RF	65	235	57	0.243	18	41	0.363	5	5	1	1	1	0	1	0.200	0.235	0.334	0.466	OK
Luis García Jr.	1B	35	132	39	0.295	7	15	0.329	5	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.290	0.314	0.506	OK
Spencer Jones	CF	74	225	58	0.258	10	37	0.328	5	5	2	1	0	0	1	0.400	0.274	0.330	0.473	OK
George Lombard Jr.	SS	32	111	26	0.234	3	12	0.298	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.238	0.299	0.358	OK
Ryan McMahon	3B	105	302	65	0.215	10	34	0.279	4	3	2	1	3	0	1	0.667	0.217	0.278	0.330	OK
Austin Wells	C	112	316	57	0.180	12	30	0.277	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.160	0.266	0.378	OK
Anthony Volpe	2B	59	186	46	0.247	2	22	0.333	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.253	0.335	0.357	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	38	12	7	7	1	6	0.316

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Luke Keaschall	RF	141	489	135	0.276	9	44	0.369	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.268	0.347	0.361	OK
Austin Martin	LF	96	290	68	0.234	3	23	0.334	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.225	0.306	0.339	OK
Ryan Jeffers	C	81	290	76	0.262	14	54	0.356	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.214	0.290	0.393	OK
Josh Bell	DH	144	529	134	0.253	20	87	0.317	4	3	1	1	3	1	1	0.333	0.214	0.275	0.413	OK
Kody Clemens	1B	133	494	119	0.241	26	76	0.301	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.228	0.281	0.445	OK
Royce Lewis	3B	115	421	97	0.230	14	53	0.296	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.212	0.273	0.352	OK
Emmanuel Rodriguez	CF	4	15	5	0.333	1	4	0.333	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.325	0.332	0.591	OK
Ryan Kreidler	2B	82	226	49	0.217	6	26	0.269	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.197	0.245	0.330	OK
Ben Ross	SS	3	4	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.092	0.105	0.144
TEAM TOTALS									34	33	6	4	4	1	6	0.182

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Carlos Rodón	Starter	14	68.7	3.01	1.150	10.2	78	5.2	5	3	3	0	5	86	5.2	5	3
David Bednar	Closer	60	59.9	2.85	1.102	10.8	72	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	16	1.0	0	1
Brent Headrick	Setup Man	76	60.1	2.40	1.464	13.8	92	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	58	71.8	1.88	1.198	8.3	66	1.1	0	0	0	1	1	18	1.1	1	0

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Zebby Matthews	Starter	21	117.7	5.05	1.291	7.6	99	5.2	8	4	4	0	4	98	5.2	4	3
Yoendrys Gómez	Closer	51	40.3	3.35	1.439	10.3	46	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	16	1.0	1	1
Jeff Hoffman	Setup Man	16	12.8	2.81	1.328	15.5	22	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	16	1.0	0	1
A.J. Minter	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	18	14.3	1.89	1.119	10.1	16	1.1	2	1	1	1	1	27	1.1	1	1

Game Summary

NYY wins 7-4

Oakland Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays

OAK 61-91 (4.34 RPG / 5.69 RA)

2 - 6

TB 92-59 (4.56 RPG / 4.09 RA)

WINNER: TB wins 6-2 TARGET: OAK 2 - 6 TB (TB) Confidence: 76.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
OAK	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	6
TB	1	0	0	0	0	2	3	0	x	6	12

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs3.9

Avg Allowed5.2

Run Diff-13

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak1L

TB Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs5.6

Avg Allowed3.1

Run Diff25

Off Trendhot

Def Trendstrong

Streak4W

OAK Season Quality

Record61-90

Win%0.404

Run Diff-204

RD/Game-1.351

TB Season Quality

Record91-59

Win%0.607

Run Diff70

RD/Game0.467

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.6325; margin adjustment: 2.612; applied: True

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Henry Bolte	CF	104	371	102	0.275	10	33	0.355	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.259	0.326	0.388	OK
Jeff McNeil	2B	131	442	118	0.267	8	54	0.312	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.250	0.286	0.335	OK
Shea Langeliers	DH	96	384	102	0.266	23	54	0.333	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.272	0.327	0.484	OK
Lawrence Butler	RF	136	430	98	0.228	16	58	0.314	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.206	0.275	0.427	OK
Zack Gelof	3B	96	352	88	0.250	18	46	0.316	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.206	0.260	0.387	OK
Donovan Walton	SS	45	110	25	0.227	4	13	0.384	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.252	0.331	0.440	OK
Tommy White	1B	44	162	40	0.247	2	8	0.263	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.230	0.248	0.295	OK
Carlos Cortes	LF	112	322	82	0.255	9	40	0.321	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.233	0.295	0.353	OK
Brian Serven	C	21	69	14	0.203	5	14	0.247	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.193	0.232	0.346	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	33	6	2	2	1	8	0.182

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Yandy Díaz	DH	144	574	173	0.301	22	81	0.366	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.260	0.306	0.383	OK
Ryan Vilade	1B	79	211	55	0.261	11	38	0.325	5	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.258	0.330	0.451	OK
Junior Caminero	3B	149	570	159	0.279	41	96	0.364	5	5	1	1	1	0	2	0.200	0.268	0.340	0.579	OK
Jonny DeLuca	CF	91	304	81	0.266	9	43	0.299	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.278	0.309	0.419	OK
Chandler Simpson	LF	138	535	165	0.308	0	33	0.336	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.335	0.363	0.384	OK
Nick Madrigal	2B	2	7	2	0.286	0	0	0.286	4	3	1	0	0	1	1	0.333	0.271	0.357	0.307	OK
Victor Mesa Jr.	RF	61	199	52	0.261	13	30	0.324	4	4	3	1	2	0	0	0.750	0.331	0.399	0.669	OK
Jorge Mateo	SS	19	58	8	0.138	1	7	0.190	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.178	0.214	0.269	OK
Nick Fortes	C	93	276	73	0.264	5	33	0.308	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.171	0.215	0.290	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	36	12	6	6	2	4	0.333

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Brady Basso	Starter	23	34.3	4.20	1.516	7.3	28	5.0	5	1	1	1	4	90	5.0	4	1
Seth Johnson	Reliever	6	8.2	5.49	1.585	12.1	11	1.0	4	2	2	0	0	25	1.0	0	2
Chris Roycroft	Reliever	5	7.4	1.22	1.486	4.9	4	1.0	3	3	3	1	0	26	1.0	0	3
Hogan Harris	Reliever	70	55.7	4.04	1.724	13.6	84	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Nick Martinez	Starter	28	162.6	2.99	1.095	5.4	98	5.2	2	0	0	0	4	77	5.2	4	0
Bryan Baker	Closer	60	57.7	1.40	0.867	9.7	62	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	17	1.0	2	0
Kevin Kelly	Setup Man	66	58.5	2.92	1.043	8.8	57	1.1	4	2	2	0	0	26	1.1	0	2
Cam Booser	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	37	30.0	2.70	1.000	12.3	41	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13	1.0	2	0

Game Summary

TB wins 6-2

Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals

PHI 84-68 (4.48 RPG / 4.28 RA)

5 - 4

WAS 71-82 (5.08 RPG / 5.07 RA)

WINNER: PHI wins 5-4 TARGET: PHI 5 - 4 WAS (PHI) Confidence: 51.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PHI	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	5	6
WAS	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	0	0	4	5

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.5

Avg Allowed5.0

Run Diff-5

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.3

Avg Allowed5.1

Run Diff-8

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak4W

PHI Season Quality

Record83-68

Win%0.550

Run Diff28

RD/Game0.185

WAS Season Quality

Record71-81

Win%0.467

Run Diff6

RD/Game0.039

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.1908; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Kyle Schwarber	DH	143	542	129	0.238	44	94	0.349	5	5	1	1	1	0	0	0.200	0.238	0.337	0.522	OK
Trea Turner	SS	143	597	145	0.243	19	57	0.292	5	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.235	0.277	0.361	OK
Bryce Harper	RF	149	529	143	0.270	28	83	0.385	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.269	0.371	0.499	OK
Luis Arraez	2B	37	148	43	0.291	2	16	0.314	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.308	0.340	0.405	OK
Alec Bohm	1B	141	528	131	0.248	15	82	0.311	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.259	0.316	0.407	OK
Bryson Stott	3B	143	495	123	0.248	10	62	0.324	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.239	0.308	0.362	OK
J.T. Realmuto	C	111	381	84	0.220	11	49	0.292	4	2	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.233	0.281	0.371	OK
Brandon Marsh	LF	141	493	130	0.264	17	58	0.309	4	3	2	1	2	1	0	0.667	0.192	0.235	0.302	OK
Justin Crawford	CF	133	391	102	0.261	3	36	0.310	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.270	0.314	0.404	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	33	6	5	5	3	9	0.182

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
James Wood	RF	125	475	127	0.267	30	75	0.394	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.188	0.330	0.330	OK
Daylen Lile	LF	150	565	141	0.250	21	85	0.302	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.177	0.228	0.404	OK
Abimelec Ortiz	1B	38	114	24	0.211	5	13	0.250	4	4	2	1	3	0	0	0.500	0.139	0.185	0.253	OK
CJ Abrams	2B	142	542	143	0.264	30	96	0.339	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.263	0.325	0.480	OK
José Tena	DH	105	249	56	0.225	7	23	0.300	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.182	0.248	0.305	OK
Jorbit Vivas	3B	107	287	70	0.244	3	29	0.333	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.264	0.343	0.372	OK
Dylan Crews	CF	97	366	81	0.221	11	40	0.289	4	3	2	1	0	1	0	0.667	0.224	0.274	0.366	OK
Keibert Ruiz	C	94	311	90	0.289	10	47	0.327	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.301	0.330	0.496	OK
Nasim Nuñez	SS	127	410	87	0.212	1	35	0.293	4	2	0	1	0	2	0	0.000	0.200	0.283	0.235	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	32	5	4	4	5	5	0.156

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Zack Wheeler	Starter	25	141.7	3.18	1.087	10.9	172	5.2	4	3	3	4	5	107	5.2	5	3
Jhoan Duran	Closer	55	53.4	1.52	0.993	12.6	75	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	1.0	0	0
Jonathan Bowlan	Setup Man	58	51.0	3.71	1.118	12.5	71	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	60	49.0	4.59	1.531	10.8	59	1.1	1	1	1	0	0	20	1.1	0	1

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jared Simpson	Starter	2	4.0	0.00	0.000	9.0	4	3.0	1	0	0	2	5	58	3.0	5	0
Erik Tolman	Closer	10	10.4	2.60	1.250	9.5	11	2.0	0	0	0	0	1	25	2.0	1	0
Brad Lord	Setup Man	38	70.3	4.48	1.394	9.1	71	1.2	4	4	4	0	2	33	1.2	2	4
Luis Perales	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	4	7.0	11.57	2.286	11.6	9	1.0	1	1	1	1	0	20	1.0	0	1
Yovanny Cruz	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	8	5.5	8.18	2.727	8.2	5	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0

Game Summary

PHI wins 5-4

San Diego Padres @ Colorado Rockies

SD 82-69 (4.3 RPG / 4.19 RA)

7 - 5

COL 56-95 (4.72 RPG / 5.8 RA)

WINNER: SD wins 7-5 TARGET: SD 7 - 5 COL (SD) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SD	0	2	3	0	0	0	0	0	2	7	12
COL	5	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	6

SD Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs5.3

Avg Allowed4.7

Run Diff6

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

COL Recent Form

Win%0.200

Avg Runs5.1

Avg Allowed7.4

Run Diff-23

Off Trendhot

Def Trendweak

Streak1W

SD Season Quality

Record82-69

Win%0.543

Run Diff17

RD/Game0.113

COL Season Quality

Record56-95

Win%0.371

Run Diff-164

RD/Game-1.086

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.2816; margin adjustment: -0.5383; applied: True

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Fernando Tatis Jr.	DH	147	587	169	0.288	23	77	0.354	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.318	0.387	0.545	OK
Dustin Harris	RF	14	45	15	0.333	0	7	0.354	5	4	0	1	0	1	0	0.000	0.290	0.345	0.388	OK
Manny Machado	3B	147	546	121	0.222	28	83	0.312	5	5	2	1	2	0	0	0.400	0.234	0.323	0.472	OK
Ty France	1B	116	397	117	0.295	20	64	0.361	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.296	0.345	0.474	OK
Jackson Merrill	CF	147	574	145	0.253	25	83	0.302	4	4	2	1	3	0	0	0.500	0.336	0.369	0.532	OK
Xander Bogaerts	SS	144	493	110	0.223	11	54	0.322	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.254	0.340	0.339	OK
Jake Cronenworth	2B	97	337	72	0.214	5	29	0.297	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.226	0.294	0.301	OK
Samad Taylor	LF	37	121	37	0.306	1	11	0.382	4	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.275	0.345	0.354	OK
Ethan Salas	C	8	17	1	0.059	0	0	0.059	4	4	3	1	0	0	1	0.750	0.100	0.112	0.243	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	38	12	7	7	1	5	0.316

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jake McCarthy	LF	130	505	150	0.297	15	79	0.339	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.292	0.319	0.441	OK
Connor Norby	2B	30	99	29	0.293	3	14	0.381	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.256	0.328	0.419	OK
Cole Carrigg	CF	79	289	78	0.270	10	45	0.338	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.268	0.323	0.493	OK
Kyle Karros	3B	117	370	97	0.262	11	45	0.357	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.239	0.312	0.419	OK
Adael Amador	DH	17	55	17	0.309	4	12	0.387	4	3	1	1	3	1	0	0.333	0.286	0.351	0.532	OK
Troy Johnston	1B	117	375	107	0.285	4	49	0.350	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.271	0.323	0.390	OK
Jordan Beck	RF	53	147	29	0.197	1	11	0.256	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.189	0.253	0.274	OK
Braxton Fulford	C	36	69	12	0.174	1	7	0.253	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.169	0.240	0.267	OK
Ezequiel Tovar	SS	132	430	93	0.216	11	42	0.264	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.150	0.209	0.269	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	33	6	5	5	3	7	0.182

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Robbie Ray	Starter	7	33.2	5.42	1.596	6.8	25	5.0	5	4	4	3	4	97	5.0	4	4
Mason Miller	Closer	61	61.3	1.17	0.897	17.5	119	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	16	1.0	1	1
Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	71	72.8	3.21	1.195	12.4	100	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	62	58.9	2.14	1.138	11.3	74	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Yuki Matsui	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	48	51.3	2.28	1.287	11.1	63	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Mason Adams	Starter	4	18.2	3.46	1.484	10.9	22	4.2	5	5	5	1	4	78	4.2	4	5
Jordan Romano	Closer	23	20.5	3.51	1.220	9.2	21	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Brennan Bernardino	Setup Man	68	48.6	2.96	1.358	8.0	43	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	1
Jimmy Herget	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	47	41.7	6.91	1.751	9.3	43	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	16	1.0	0	0
Jaden Hill	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	41	28.2	5.74	1.879	11.8	37	1.0	1	0	0	0	0	12	1.0	0	0
Juan Mejia	Middle Reliever	60	55.6	6.31	2.014	9.6	59	0.1	4	2	2	0	0	16	0.1	0	0

Game Summary

SD wins 7-5

Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels

SEA 70-82 (4.06 RPG / 4.46 RA)

5 - 4

LAA 58-93 (4.05 RPG / 4.54 RA)

WINNER: SEA wins 5-4 TARGET: SEA 5 - 4 LAA (SEA) Confidence: 50.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SEA	0	0	0	0	4	1	0	0	0	5	5
LAA	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	1	4	9

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs5.2

Avg Allowed4.4

Run Diff8

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak3L

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.1

Avg Allowed3.3

Run Diff8

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak2W

SEA Season Quality

Record70-82

Win%0.461

Run Diff-61

RD/Game-0.401

LAA Season Quality

Record58-93

Win%0.384

Run Diff-73

RD/Game-0.483

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.1083; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
J.P. Crawford	SS	106	375	84	0.224	12	37	0.344	4	4	1	1	2	0	2	0.250	0.239	0.331	0.399	OK
Randy Arozarena	LF	144	537	149	0.277	25	75	0.373	4	4	1	1	2	0	2	0.250	0.288	0.344	0.495	OK
Dominic Canzone	DH	134	440	113	0.257	22	68	0.322	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.260	0.299	0.458	OK
Cal Raleigh	C	116	419	75	0.179	22	63	0.290	4	2	0	1	0	2	1	0.000	0.168	0.265	0.319	OK
Julio Rodríguez	CF	140	560	135	0.241	21	66	0.300	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.234	0.284	0.352	OK
Josh Naylor	1B	142	557	151	0.271	10	50	0.327	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.282	0.325	0.347	OK
Taylor Ward	RF	26	80	9	0.112	0	5	0.220	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.208	0.336	0.285	OK
Cole Young	2B	150	548	136	0.248	17	65	0.309	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.248	0.288	0.393	OK
Weston Wilson	3B	40	109	24	0.220	3	10	0.286	3	2	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.263	0.326	0.358	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	32	5	5	5	3	11	0.156

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Zach Neto	SS	146	582	140	0.241	26	74	0.321	5	4	1	0	0	1	2	0.250	0.222	0.285	0.420	OK
Mike Trout	CF	132	478	116	0.243	21	52	0.379	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.230	0.354	0.406	OK
Wade Meckler	LF	81	256	76	0.297	3	26	0.368	5	5	2	1	0	0	1	0.400	0.292	0.363	0.383	OK
Vaughn Grissom	1B	105	381	92	0.241	11	63	0.304	5	4	1	1	1	1	0	0.250	0.228	0.282	0.379	OK
Moisés Ballesteros	C	35	126	27	0.214	3	11	0.263	5	5	2	1	2	0	1	0.400	0.245	0.310	0.399	OK
Denzer Guzman	3B	69	243	53	0.218	7	28	0.261	4	2	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.197	0.237	0.310	OK
Josh Lowe	RF	97	281	59	0.210	12	29	0.275	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	0.667	0.211	0.272	0.387	OK
Christian Moore	DH	28	102	17	0.167	1	10	0.225	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.168	0.219	0.248	OK
Adam Frazier	2B	54	124	29	0.234	1	10	0.296	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.119	0.166	0.216	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	35	9	4	4	4	9	0.257

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
George Kirby	Starter	28	161.6	4.34	1.392	7.7	138	5.2	6	1	1	1	6	105	5.2	6	1
Andrés Muñoz	Closer	57	51.5	4.19	1.223	15.0	86	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	27	1.0	0	0
José A. Ferrer	Setup Man	66	51.6	4.36	1.647	8.4	48	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	8	0.2	2	0
Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	68	53.3	4.56	1.707	10.8	64	0.2	2	2	2	2	0	22	0.2	0	2
Gabe Speier	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	50	35.9	3.51	1.309	10.0	40	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	16	1.0	1	1

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Yusei Kikuchi	Starter	11	52.3	4.82	1.511	9.3	54	4.2	4	4	4	2	6	91	4.2	6	4
Ben Joyce	Closer	14	12.4	3.63	1.210	10.9	15	1.2	1	1	1	1	1	36	1.2	1	1
Ryan Watson	Setup Man	16	12.0	2.25	1.167	12.8	17	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13	1.0	2	0
Tayler Saucedo	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	23	14.0	3.86	1.357	13.5	21	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	8	0.2	1	0
José Fermin	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	50	45.0	3.60	1.489	12.2	61	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

SEA wins 5-4

San Francisco Giants @ St. Louis Cardinals

SF 65-89 (4.26 RPG / 4.68 RA)

5 - 4

STL 75-78 (4.53 RPG / 4.62 RA)

WINNER: SF wins 5-4 TARGET: SF 5 - 4 STL (SF) Confidence: 51.4% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H
SF	0	0	1	0	0	4	0	0	0	0	5	7
STL	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	1	1	0	4	8

SF Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs5.1

Avg Allowed4.5

Run Diff6

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

STL Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.8

Avg Allowed5.3

Run Diff-5

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak1L

SF Season Quality

Record63-89

Win%0.414

Run Diff-71

RD/Game-0.467

STL Season Quality

Record75-77

Win%0.493

Run Diff-13

RD/Game-0.086

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.2396; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jonah Cox	CF	41	114	32	0.281	4	12	0.317	5	2	0	0	0	2	2	0.000	0.266	0.299	0.379	OK
Bryce Eldridge	1B	105	378	103	0.272	17	57	0.362	5	4	3	1	1	1	0	0.750	0.283	0.368	0.485	OK
Brett Harris	3B	4	7	1	0.143	0	0	0.250	5	5	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.106	0.164	0.217	OK
Jung Hoo Lee	DH	135	515	142	0.276	8	52	0.316	5	5	1	1	0	0	2	0.200	0.256	0.287	0.366	OK
Shay Whitcomb	2B	18	61	13	0.213	2	6	0.213	5	5	1	1	0	0	2	0.200	0.207	0.213	0.383	OK
Turner Hill	LF	25	80	20	0.250	1	15	0.344	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.239	0.326	0.360	OK
Andrew Knizner	C	18	47	8	0.170	2	3	0.250	4	4	1	1	3	0	1	0.250	0.196	0.256	0.385	OK
Scott Bandura	RF	3	6	1	0.167	0	0	0.286	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.184	0.287	0.219	OK
Christian Koss	SS	55	168	41	0.244	4	12	0.287	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.293	0.334	0.404	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	37	7	5	5	3	12	0.189

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
JJ Wetherholt	2B	126	495	120	0.242	17	47	0.343	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.239	0.314	0.358	OK
Leonardo Bernal	DH	14	56	17	0.304	3	14	0.350	5	5	2	1	2	0	1	0.400	0.300	0.344	0.510	OK
Alec Burleson	1B	147	560	159	0.284	23	108	0.350	5	5	2	1	0	0	2	0.400	0.296	0.363	0.524	OK
Jordan Walker	RF	145	559	156	0.279	26	95	0.336	5	2	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.238	0.292	0.384	OK
Joshua Baez	LF	27	92	23	0.250	7	18	0.293	5	4	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.252	0.282	0.528	OK
Nolan Gorman	3B	79	251	48	0.191	9	33	0.267	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.158	0.235	0.246	OK
Thomas Saggese	SS	42	131	35	0.267	4	12	0.319	5	5	2	1	0	0	2	0.400	0.271	0.322	0.401	OK
Nathan Church	CF	119	396	100	0.253	10	49	0.298	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.272	0.326	0.376	OK
Pedro Pagés	C	61	178	38	0.213	4	11	0.260	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.133	0.184	0.196	OK
TEAM TOTALS									43	37	8	4	4	5	10	0.216

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Anthony Molina	Starter	4	17.1	5.26	1.228	8.9	17	4.2	4	2	2	3	6	95	4.2	6	2
Dylan Smith	Closer	37	31.6	3.42	1.551	11.7	41	2.0	0	0	0	0	2	35	2.0	2	0
Trent Harris	Setup Man	16	17.3	2.60	1.156	12.0	23	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	0.0	0	0
Carson Seymour	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	19	23.2	5.82	1.853	7.4	19	1.0	1	1	1	1	1	20	1.0	1	1
Jason Foley	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	20	19.1	4.71	1.780	6.1	13	1.1	3	1	1	1	1	30	1.1	1	1

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Matthew Liberatore	Starter	29	138.9	5.70	1.533	9.5	146	5.0	6	4	4	0	7	90	5.0	7	4
Riley O'Brien	Closer	63	58.2	4.33	1.340	9.6	62	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	16	1.0	0	1
George Soriano	Setup Man	68	55.6	5.02	1.637	10.2	63	1.0	0	0	0	2	2	21	0.1	2	0
Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	66	51.6	4.71	1.550	11.2	64	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	21	1.2	1	0
Justin Bruihl	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	67	61.1	4.27	1.588	7.7	52	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0
Gordon Graceffo	Middle Reliever	58	64.1	3.09	1.232	8.0	57	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	4	0.0	1	0

Game Summary

SF wins 5-4

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

All Games Overview

Atlanta Braves @ Chicago Cubs

ATL Recent Form

CHC Recent Form

ATL Season Quality

CHC Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Baltimore Orioles @ New York Mets

BAL Recent Form

NYM Recent Form

BAL Season Quality

NYM Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Boston Red Sox @ Texas Rangers

BOS Recent Form

TEX Recent Form

BOS Season Quality

TEX Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Chicago White Sox @ Cleveland Guardians

CHW Recent Form

CLE Recent Form

CHW Season Quality

CLE Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Detroit Tigers @ Toronto Blue Jays

DET Recent Form

TOR Recent Form

DET Season Quality

TOR Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Kansas City Royals @ Houston Astros

KC Recent Form

HOU Recent Form

KC Season Quality

HOU Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Cincinnati Reds

LAD Recent Form

CIN Recent Form

LAD Season Quality

CIN Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Miami Marlins @ Arizona Diamondbacks