| Matchup | Target Score | Sim Score | Target Winner | Sim Winner | Winner | Confidence | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL @ TOR | 2 - 4 | 2 - 4 | TOR | TOR | TOR wins 4-2 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| CHW @ STL | 5 - 6 | 5 - 6 | STL | STL | STL wins 6-5 | 51% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| CIN @ MIL | 4 - 8 | 4 - 8 | MIL | MIL | MIL wins 8-4 | 54% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| CLE @ MIN | 4 - 5 | 4 - 5 | MIN | MIN | MIN wins 5-4 | 55% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| COL @ DET | 4 - 7 | 4 - 7 | DET | DET | DET wins 7-4 | 65% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| HOU @ TB | 3 - 4 | 3 - 4 | TB | TB | TB wins 4-3 | 52% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| KC @ BOS | 2 - 4 | 2 - 4 | BOS | BOS | BOS wins 4-2 | 56% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| LAA @ WAS | 5 - 6 | 5 - 6 | WAS | WAS | WAS wins 6-5 | 57% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| LAD @ MIA | 8 - 5 | 8 - 5 | LAD | LAD | LAD wins 8-5 | 60% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| NYM @ NYY | 5 - 6 | 5 - 6 | NYY | NYY | NYY wins 6-5 | 56% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| PHI @ ATL | 4 - 5 | 4 - 5 | ATL | ATL | ATL wins 5-4 | 54% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| PIT @ CHC | 3 - 4 | 3 - 4 | CHC | CHC | CHC wins 4-3 | 52% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| SD @ SF | 6 - 4 | 6 - 4 | SD | SD | SD wins 6-4 | 54% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| SEA @ OAK | 6 - 5 | 6 - 5 | SEA | SEA | SEA wins 6-5 | 56% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| TEX @ ARI | 4 - 3 | 4 - 3 | TEX | TEX | TEX wins 4-3 | 51% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| TOR | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | x | 4 | 5 |
Quality edge: 0.0675; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jackson Holliday | 2B | 91 | 302 | 68 | 0.225 | 7 | 30 | 0.292 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.400 | 0.211 | 0.263 | 0.315 | OK |
| Pete Alonso | 1B | 146 | 545 | 146 | 0.268 | 35 | 99 | 0.363 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.241 | 0.329 | 0.438 | OK |
| Gunnar Henderson | SS | 143 | 570 | 126 | 0.221 | 21 | 56 | 0.305 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.230 | 0.304 | 0.354 | OK |
| Coby Mayo | DH | 113 | 363 | 82 | 0.226 | 23 | 60 | 0.290 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.230 | 0.287 | 0.523 | OK |
| Samuel Basallo | C | 102 | 338 | 77 | 0.228 | 17 | 51 | 0.295 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.218 | 0.278 | 0.358 | OK |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | 3B | 45 | 152 | 38 | 0.250 | 7 | 30 | 0.303 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.258 | 0.296 | 0.425 | OK |
| Dylan Beavers | LF | 88 | 278 | 68 | 0.245 | 7 | 38 | 0.313 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.249 | 0.303 | 0.432 | OK |
| Colton Cowser | CF | 115 | 303 | 66 | 0.218 | 12 | 36 | 0.304 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.204 | 0.292 | 0.349 | OK |
| Leody Taveras | RF | 123 | 400 | 87 | 0.218 | 8 | 54 | 0.286 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.212 | 0.275 | 0.336 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 35 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Brett Bateman | CF | 30 | 122 | 41 | 0.336 | 2 | 10 | 0.401 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.326 | 0.370 | 0.442 | OK |
| George Springer | DH | 112 | 424 | 106 | 0.250 | 14 | 47 | 0.323 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.230 | 0.290 | 0.348 | OK |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 1B | 133 | 505 | 131 | 0.259 | 8 | 55 | 0.327 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.259 | 0.320 | 0.342 | OK |
| Alejandro Kirk | C | 68 | 246 | 68 | 0.276 | 10 | 39 | 0.344 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.260 | 0.327 | 0.384 | OK |
| Nathan Lukes | RF | 110 | 373 | 102 | 0.273 | 10 | 36 | 0.321 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.294 | 0.324 | 0.378 | OK |
| Kazuma Okamoto | 3B | 142 | 523 | 123 | 0.235 | 31 | 84 | 0.310 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.254 | 0.315 | 0.569 | OK |
| Andrés Giménez | SS | 131 | 437 | 107 | 0.245 | 9 | 55 | 0.291 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.229 | 0.259 | 0.355 | OK |
| Ernie Clement | 2B | 144 | 546 | 149 | 0.273 | 9 | 46 | 0.300 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.248 | 0.279 | 0.337 | OK |
| Myles Straw | LF | 111 | 263 | 62 | 0.236 | 3 | 23 | 0.293 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.254 | 0.318 | 0.353 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 31 | 29 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0.172 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Trevor Rogers | Starter | 27 | 147.7 | 4.27 | 1.246 | 8.4 | 138 | 6.0 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 102 | 6.0 | 3 | 4 |
| Andrew Kittredge | Closer | 52 | 41.0 | 4.17 | 1.561 | 8.3 | 38 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Rico Garcia | Setup Man | 69 | 53.8 | 2.84 | 1.041 | 10.9 | 65 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Dylan Cease | Starter | 27 | 158.3 | 2.44 | 1.061 | 12.9 | 227 | 6.0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 95 | 6.0 | 5 | 1 |
| Louis Varland | Closer | 67 | 68.2 | 1.32 | 1.070 | 12.0 | 91 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Rogers | Setup Man | 69 | 62.0 | 1.89 | 1.242 | 5.4 | 37 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Spencer Miles | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 46 | 82.9 | 2.93 | 1.146 | 9.3 | 86 | 1.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
TOR wins 4-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHW | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| STL | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 6 | 5 |
Quality edge: -0.1112; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Sam Antonacci | LF | 127 | 439 | 118 | 0.269 | 8 | 44 | 0.367 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.400 | 0.274 | 0.332 | 0.383 | OK |
| Kyle Teel | C | 27 | 83 | 17 | 0.205 | 4 | 18 | 0.290 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.230 | 0.304 | 0.414 | OK |
| Miguel Vargas | 3B | 145 | 543 | 134 | 0.247 | 30 | 79 | 0.355 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.215 | 0.296 | 0.374 | OK |
| Munetaka Murakami | 1B | 113 | 405 | 84 | 0.207 | 31 | 65 | 0.346 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.197 | 0.318 | 0.446 | OK |
| Andrew Benintendi | DH | 131 | 394 | 95 | 0.241 | 14 | 70 | 0.303 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.600 | 0.197 | 0.262 | 0.357 | OK |
| Tristan Peters | RF | 136 | 405 | 113 | 0.279 | 12 | 54 | 0.342 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.270 | 0.322 | 0.435 | OK |
| Chase Meidroth | 2B | 141 | 523 | 140 | 0.268 | 14 | 53 | 0.344 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.244 | 0.321 | 0.436 | OK |
| Colson Montgomery | SS | 140 | 526 | 109 | 0.207 | 31 | 84 | 0.291 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.146 | 0.227 | 0.333 | OK |
| Brenton Doyle | CF | 21 | 54 | 11 | 0.204 | 2 | 7 | 0.204 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.115 | 0.165 | 0.191 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 43 | 36 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Bryan Torres | LF | 56 | 138 | 36 | 0.261 | 3 | 17 | 0.329 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.272 | 0.346 | 0.363 | OK |
| Iván Herrera | C | 145 | 552 | 134 | 0.243 | 15 | 62 | 0.353 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.237 | 0.320 | 0.357 | OK |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 144 | 551 | 155 | 0.281 | 22 | 103 | 0.347 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.254 | 0.334 | 0.438 | OK |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 142 | 550 | 155 | 0.282 | 26 | 95 | 0.338 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.163 | 0.224 | 0.291 | OK |
| Leonardo Bernal | DH | 11 | 45 | 14 | 0.311 | 3 | 13 | 0.367 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.304 | 0.358 | 0.542 | OK |
| Nolan Gorman | 3B | 76 | 245 | 47 | 0.192 | 9 | 32 | 0.269 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.205 | 0.280 | 0.348 | OK |
| Thomas Saggese | 2B | 39 | 120 | 32 | 0.267 | 4 | 12 | 0.323 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.271 | 0.331 | 0.420 | OK |
| Nathan Church | CF | 116 | 387 | 98 | 0.253 | 10 | 49 | 0.298 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.301 | 0.349 | 0.404 | OK |
| Masyn Winn | SS | 120 | 436 | 103 | 0.236 | 5 | 54 | 0.308 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.217 | 0.281 | 0.308 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 29 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 0.172 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| David Sandlin | Starter | 2 | 10.0 | 8.10 | 1.300 | 7.2 | 8 | 4.0 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 79 | 4.0 | 4 | 6 |
| Grant Taylor | Closer | 41 | 51.9 | 2.60 | 1.118 | 13.2 | 76 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Sean Newcomb | Setup Man | 52 | 72.5 | 3.10 | 1.269 | 9.2 | 74 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Bryan Hudson | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 60 | 52.8 | 2.90 | 1.307 | 9.4 | 55 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Hagen Smith | Middle Reliever | 9 | 14.6 | 0.00 | 0.959 | 14.2 | 23 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Michael McGreevy | Starter | 28 | 150.5 | 4.01 | 1.282 | 6.3 | 106 | 5.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 95 | 5.2 | 7 | 2 |
| Riley O'Brien | Closer | 62 | 57.2 | 4.41 | 1.329 | 9.4 | 60 | 1.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 31 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| George Soriano | Setup Man | 67 | 54.6 | 5.11 | 1.612 | 10.4 | 63 | 0.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 0.2 | 0 | 2 |
| Ryne Stanek | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 65 | 50.6 | 4.80 | 1.542 | 11.0 | 62 | 1.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
STL wins 6-5
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 4 |
| MIL | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | x | 8 | 8 |
Quality edge: 2.0534; margin adjustment: 3.2854; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Dane Myers | CF | 92 | 253 | 66 | 0.261 | 5 | 22 | 0.346 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.256 | 0.317 | 0.346 | OK |
| Elly De La Cruz | SS | 126 | 496 | 142 | 0.286 | 26 | 71 | 0.366 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.302 | 0.366 | 0.587 | OK |
| Sal Stewart | 1B | 145 | 556 | 149 | 0.268 | 30 | 104 | 0.338 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.256 | 0.321 | 0.384 | OK |
| Eugenio Suárez | 3B | 112 | 390 | 84 | 0.215 | 23 | 65 | 0.310 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.214 | 0.315 | 0.450 | OK |
| Tyler Stephenson | DH | 115 | 372 | 93 | 0.250 | 15 | 52 | 0.331 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.234 | 0.320 | 0.392 | OK |
| JJ Bleday | LF | 116 | 415 | 91 | 0.219 | 22 | 56 | 0.327 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.195 | 0.289 | 0.343 | OK |
| Juan Brito | 2B | 6 | 19 | 7 | 0.368 | 2 | 8 | 0.409 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.233 | 0.293 | 0.405 | OK |
| Jose Trevino | C | 42 | 135 | 30 | 0.222 | 5 | 17 | 0.226 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.128 | 0.137 | 0.204 | OK |
| Héctor Rodríguez | RF | 30 | 106 | 26 | 0.245 | 5 | 12 | 0.298 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.230 | 0.273 | 0.378 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 31 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Garrett Mitchell | CF | 125 | 413 | 109 | 0.264 | 10 | 58 | 0.348 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.343 | 0.393 | 0.575 | OK |
| Jackson Chourio | LF | 112 | 469 | 140 | 0.299 | 23 | 67 | 0.356 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.354 | 0.403 | 0.588 | OK |
| Brice Turang | 2B | 135 | 525 | 142 | 0.270 | 19 | 93 | 0.365 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.334 | 0.423 | 0.610 | OK |
| Gary Sánchez | C | 77 | 205 | 43 | 0.210 | 11 | 35 | 0.353 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.230 | 0.384 | 0.417 | OK |
| Jake Bauers | 1B | 127 | 429 | 115 | 0.268 | 24 | 80 | 0.390 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.267 | 0.401 | 0.508 | OK |
| Christian Yelich | DH | 104 | 392 | 92 | 0.235 | 11 | 52 | 0.315 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.258 | 0.322 | 0.412 | OK |
| Joey Ortiz | 3B | 106 | 326 | 85 | 0.261 | 8 | 41 | 0.320 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.297 | 0.350 | 0.423 | OK |
| Luis Lara | RF | 45 | 152 | 40 | 0.263 | 1 | 22 | 0.327 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.271 | 0.329 | 0.352 | OK |
| Cooper Pratt | SS | 59 | 189 | 51 | 0.270 | 3 | 29 | 0.335 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.288 | 0.353 | 0.377 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 32 | 8 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 10 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Chase Burns | Starter | 27 | 146.0 | 2.77 | 1.158 | 10.8 | 176 | 6.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 94 | 6.0 | 9 | 3 |
| Emilio Pagán | Closer | 39 | 36.5 | 3.95 | 1.068 | 9.4 | 38 | 2.0 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 48 | 2.0 | 1 | 4 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Robert Gasser | Starter | 18 | 87.6 | 4.62 | 1.336 | 8.9 | 87 | 5.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 76 | 5.0 | 8 | 1 |
| Trevor Megill | Closer | 56 | 54.5 | 1.98 | 0.881 | 10.4 | 63 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Abner Uribe | Setup Man | 55 | 48.9 | 2.21 | 1.104 | 10.1 | 55 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Aaron Ashby | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 70 | 74.1 | 3.52 | 1.511 | 13.2 | 109 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 1.2 | 0 | 1 |
MIL wins 8-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | x | 5 | 9 |
Quality edge: -0.2563; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Steven Kwan | CF | 133 | 483 | 133 | 0.275 | 2 | 28 | 0.370 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 0.281 | 0.364 | 0.345 | OK |
| Chase DeLauter | RF | 118 | 444 | 129 | 0.291 | 14 | 61 | 0.361 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.246 | 0.313 | 0.417 | OK |
| Travis Bazzana | 2B | 108 | 392 | 95 | 0.242 | 11 | 49 | 0.336 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.274 | 0.359 | 0.431 | OK |
| Jo Adell | DH | 34 | 126 | 29 | 0.230 | 4 | 23 | 0.315 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.233 | 0.271 | 0.371 | OK |
| Nathaniel Lowe | 1B | 31 | 103 | 22 | 0.214 | 5 | 21 | 0.274 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.158 | 0.243 | 0.359 | OK |
| Angel Martínez | LF | 97 | 351 | 87 | 0.248 | 15 | 52 | 0.286 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.244 | 0.271 | 0.438 | OK |
| Angel Genao | 3B | 28 | 102 | 24 | 0.235 | 2 | 6 | 0.284 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.147 | 0.192 | 0.240 | OK |
| Patrick Bailey | C | 63 | 186 | 46 | 0.247 | 7 | 29 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.171 | 0.240 | 0.270 | OK |
| Brayan Rocchio | SS | 138 | 484 | 119 | 0.246 | 11 | 59 | 0.304 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.231 | 0.276 | 0.334 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 35 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Luke Keaschall | RF | 138 | 479 | 130 | 0.271 | 9 | 44 | 0.363 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.256 | 0.332 | 0.360 | OK |
| Brooks Lee | 3B | 139 | 531 | 132 | 0.249 | 23 | 78 | 0.296 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.245 | 0.284 | 0.385 | OK |
| Kody Clemens | 2B | 130 | 482 | 117 | 0.243 | 26 | 75 | 0.303 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.241 | 0.293 | 0.462 | OK |
| Ryan Jeffers | C | 79 | 282 | 76 | 0.270 | 14 | 54 | 0.365 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.250 | 0.330 | 0.478 | OK |
| Trevor Larnach | DH | 118 | 380 | 101 | 0.266 | 12 | 46 | 0.344 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.266 | 0.334 | 0.428 | OK |
| Royce Lewis | 1B | 113 | 415 | 96 | 0.231 | 14 | 53 | 0.298 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.219 | 0.281 | 0.368 | OK |
| Emmanuel Rodriguez | LF | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0.250 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.247 | 0.255 | 0.894 | OK |
| Walker Jenkins | CF | 12 | 37 | 4 | 0.108 | 1 | 5 | 0.250 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.139 | 0.248 | 0.266 | OK |
| Ryan Kreidler | SS | 79 | 218 | 48 | 0.220 | 6 | 26 | 0.274 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.123 | 0.187 | 0.252 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 33 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 0.273 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Tanner Bibee | Starter | 30 | 167.4 | 4.30 | 1.219 | 7.2 | 133 | 5.1 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 106 | 5.1 | 5 | 5 |
| Cade Smith | Closer | 62 | 62.5 | 2.30 | 1.104 | 13.7 | 95 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Hunter Gaddis | Setup Man | 59 | 44.6 | 3.03 | 1.345 | 10.1 | 50 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Joe Ryan | Starter | 24 | 128.5 | 3.71 | 1.144 | 10.2 | 145 | 5.1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 88 | 5.1 | 3 | 3 |
| Yoendrys Gómez | Closer | 50 | 39.3 | 3.44 | 1.450 | 10.1 | 44 | 1.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 38 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 |
| Jeff Hoffman | Setup Man | 15 | 11.8 | 3.05 | 1.441 | 16.0 | 21 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| A.J. Minter | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 18 | 14.3 | 1.89 | 1.119 | 10.1 | 16 | 1.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 22 | 1.0 | 3 | 0 |
MIN wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| DET | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 7 | 6 |
Quality edge: 1.2081; margin adjustment: 0.5074; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jake McCarthy | LF | 127 | 493 | 146 | 0.296 | 15 | 77 | 0.338 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.302 | 0.329 | 0.459 | OK |
| Connor Norby | 2B | 29 | 94 | 27 | 0.287 | 3 | 12 | 0.380 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.226 | 0.307 | 0.383 | OK |
| Hunter Goodman | C | 128 | 479 | 116 | 0.242 | 38 | 81 | 0.309 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.189 | 0.237 | 0.403 | OK |
| TJ Rumfield | 1B | 140 | 501 | 150 | 0.299 | 15 | 66 | 0.390 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.268 | 0.353 | 0.418 | OK |
| Cole Carrigg | CF | 76 | 275 | 72 | 0.262 | 7 | 39 | 0.334 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.257 | 0.320 | 0.427 | OK |
| Kyle Karros | 3B | 115 | 361 | 94 | 0.260 | 11 | 45 | 0.356 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.213 | 0.291 | 0.396 | OK |
| Jordan Beck | RF | 52 | 146 | 29 | 0.199 | 1 | 11 | 0.258 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.189 | 0.248 | 0.278 | OK |
| Adael Amador | DH | 14 | 42 | 14 | 0.333 | 3 | 11 | 0.417 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.310 | 0.380 | 0.562 | OK |
| Ezequiel Tovar | SS | 131 | 427 | 92 | 0.215 | 11 | 42 | 0.262 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.200 | 0.248 | 0.287 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 34 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Kevin McGonigle | 3B | 141 | 543 | 148 | 0.273 | 17 | 63 | 0.373 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.270 | 0.367 | 0.447 | OK |
| Hao-Yu Lee | 2B | 94 | 271 | 72 | 0.266 | 8 | 40 | 0.323 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.223 | 0.313 | 0.363 | OK |
| Colt Keith | DH | 131 | 371 | 94 | 0.253 | 10 | 35 | 0.308 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.243 | 0.286 | 0.398 | OK |
| Riley Greene | LF | 125 | 459 | 130 | 0.283 | 19 | 68 | 0.371 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.335 | 0.409 | 0.571 | OK |
| Eduardo Valencia | C | 31 | 97 | 31 | 0.320 | 6 | 18 | 0.340 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.256 | 0.266 | 0.464 | OK |
| Max Clark | CF | 37 | 128 | 33 | 0.258 | 3 | 16 | 0.340 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.245 | 0.316 | 0.446 | OK |
| Spencer Torkelson | 1B | 143 | 481 | 104 | 0.216 | 21 | 65 | 0.310 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.135 | 0.225 | 0.273 | OK |
| Brett Callahan | RF | 19 | 47 | 11 | 0.234 | 1 | 7 | 0.288 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.225 | 0.259 | 0.375 | OK |
| John Peck | SS | 9 | 31 | 7 | 0.226 | 0 | 5 | 0.342 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.220 | 0.321 | 0.310 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 30 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 0.200 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Gabriel Hughes | Starter | 12 | 56.4 | 5.90 | 1.401 | 7.7 | 48 | 4.1 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 89 | 4.1 | 5 | 6 |
| Jordan Romano | Closer | 22 | 19.5 | 3.69 | 1.282 | 8.8 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brennan Bernardino | Setup Man | 68 | 48.6 | 2.96 | 1.358 | 8.0 | 43 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Jimmy Herget | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 46 | 39.7 | 7.25 | 1.788 | 9.5 | 42 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaden Hill | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 40 | 27.2 | 5.96 | 1.912 | 11.9 | 36 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Juan Mejia | Middle Reliever | 59 | 54.5 | 6.28 | 2.000 | 9.4 | 57 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jackson Jobe | Starter | 6 | 27.4 | 4.60 | 1.460 | 8.5 | 26 | 4.2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 88 | 4.2 | 5 | 1 |
| Kenley Jansen | Closer | 45 | 37.5 | 3.36 | 1.173 | 11.3 | 47 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Holton | Setup Man | 63 | 58.5 | 3.23 | 1.453 | 8.5 | 55 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kyle Finnegan | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 58 | 51.4 | 3.68 | 1.673 | 8.1 | 46 | 1.0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 1.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Drew Sommers | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 38 | 26.6 | 3.72 | 1.504 | 17.9 | 53 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
DET wins 7-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| TB | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | x | 4 | 5 |
Quality edge: 0.6145; margin adjustment: 0.2581; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jeremy Peña | SS | 98 | 394 | 106 | 0.269 | 17 | 47 | 0.322 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.236 | 0.269 | 0.357 | OK |
| Yordan Alvarez | DH | 144 | 518 | 162 | 0.313 | 38 | 96 | 0.430 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.232 | 0.346 | 0.454 | OK |
| Isaac Paredes | 3B | 141 | 512 | 131 | 0.256 | 20 | 83 | 0.356 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.248 | 0.323 | 0.405 | OK |
| Jose Altuve | 2B | 121 | 470 | 116 | 0.247 | 15 | 44 | 0.307 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.235 | 0.281 | 0.364 | OK |
| Christian Walker | 1B | 142 | 525 | 119 | 0.227 | 25 | 80 | 0.300 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.216 | 0.275 | 0.381 | OK |
| Nelson Velázquez | LF | 9 | 20 | 2 | 0.100 | 1 | 4 | 0.143 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.188 | 0.243 | 0.385 | OK |
| Daulton Varsho | CF | 34 | 131 | 24 | 0.183 | 4 | 13 | 0.241 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.219 | 0.270 | 0.357 | OK |
| Cam Smith | RF | 136 | 469 | 102 | 0.217 | 20 | 53 | 0.282 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.241 | 0.301 | 0.497 | OK |
| Yainer Diaz | C | 79 | 290 | 81 | 0.279 | 11 | 36 | 0.308 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.291 | 0.319 | 0.436 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 32 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Yandy Díaz | DH | 142 | 565 | 171 | 0.303 | 22 | 80 | 0.368 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.288 | 0.336 | 0.449 | OK |
| Jonathan Aranda | 1B | 143 | 539 | 150 | 0.278 | 19 | 86 | 0.361 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.263 | 0.330 | 0.412 | OK |
| Junior Caminero | 3B | 147 | 562 | 157 | 0.279 | 40 | 95 | 0.365 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.000 | 0.265 | 0.346 | 0.546 | OK |
| Liam Hicks | C | 31 | 94 | 28 | 0.298 | 4 | 17 | 0.385 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.254 | 0.320 | 0.398 | OK |
| Chandler Simpson | LF | 136 | 527 | 161 | 0.306 | 0 | 31 | 0.333 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.279 | 0.312 | 0.323 | OK |
| Victor Mesa Jr. | RF | 60 | 194 | 48 | 0.247 | 13 | 28 | 0.313 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.286 | 0.345 | 0.576 | OK |
| Cedric Mullins | CF | 124 | 415 | 84 | 0.202 | 14 | 45 | 0.284 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.178 | 0.251 | 0.267 | OK |
| Richie Palacios | 2B | 108 | 315 | 73 | 0.232 | 9 | 47 | 0.328 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.259 | 0.350 | 0.506 | OK |
| Jorge Mateo | SS | 18 | 55 | 7 | 0.127 | 1 | 7 | 0.183 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.174 | 0.214 | 0.272 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 32 | 29 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 0.172 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Hayden Wesneski | Starter | 8 | 45.2 | 3.38 | 1.040 | 7.2 | 36 | 5.2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 107 | 5.2 | 8 | 3 |
| Josh Hader | Closer | 41 | 40.4 | 0.67 | 0.594 | 12.0 | 54 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Abreu | Setup Man | 60 | 52.5 | 4.29 | 1.486 | 13.0 | 76 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 0.2 | 2 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Freddy Peralta | Starter | 7 | 38.4 | 4.45 | 1.042 | 6.8 | 29 | 5.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 98 | 5.2 | 5 | 1 |
| Bryan Baker | Closer | 59 | 56.7 | 1.43 | 0.882 | 9.8 | 62 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Kevin Kelly | Setup Man | 65 | 57.5 | 2.97 | 1.061 | 8.5 | 54 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyler Wells | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 14 | 17.3 | 1.56 | 0.751 | 9.9 | 19 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
TB wins 4-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 4 | 5 |
Quality edge: 0.9625; margin adjustment: 0.4042; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Nick Loftin | 3B | 107 | 344 | 80 | 0.233 | 7 | 42 | 0.315 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.198 | 0.263 | 0.316 | OK |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | SS | 129 | 504 | 141 | 0.280 | 18 | 53 | 0.357 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.250 | 0.326 | 0.428 | OK |
| Jac Caglianone | DH | 131 | 472 | 132 | 0.280 | 23 | 70 | 0.327 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.275 | 0.312 | 0.473 | OK |
| Salvador Perez | 1B | 138 | 533 | 124 | 0.233 | 19 | 72 | 0.278 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.244 | 0.281 | 0.390 | OK |
| Michael Massey | 2B | 116 | 374 | 105 | 0.281 | 11 | 45 | 0.315 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.270 | 0.307 | 0.390 | OK |
| Matthew Lugo | RF | 6 | 11 | 2 | 0.182 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.183 | 0.248 | 0.216 | OK |
| Isaac Collins | LF | 131 | 410 | 91 | 0.222 | 6 | 40 | 0.325 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.122 | 0.235 | 0.211 | OK |
| Luke Maile | C | 13 | 35 | 5 | 0.143 | 1 | 5 | 0.211 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.137 | 0.204 | 0.229 | OK |
| Tyler Tolbert | CF | 49 | 117 | 35 | 0.299 | 3 | 8 | 0.366 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 | 0.283 | 0.347 | 0.388 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 34 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Roman Anthony | LF | 43 | 166 | 40 | 0.241 | 4 | 9 | 0.344 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.255 | 0.333 | 0.413 | OK |
| Jahmai Jones | DH | 22 | 36 | 16 | 0.444 | 3 | 8 | 0.500 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.143 | 0.205 | 0.300 | OK |
| Adley Rutschman | C | 21 | 75 | 15 | 0.200 | 4 | 10 | 0.277 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.249 | 0.314 | 0.438 | OK |
| Wilyer Abreu | RF | 142 | 539 | 140 | 0.260 | 23 | 73 | 0.340 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.257 | 0.336 | 0.460 | OK |
| Trevor Story | SS | 53 | 214 | 50 | 0.234 | 3 | 23 | 0.262 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.232 | 0.255 | 0.331 | OK |
| Caleb Durbin | 3B | 135 | 460 | 111 | 0.241 | 12 | 60 | 0.319 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.247 | 0.314 | 0.354 | OK |
| Nate Eaton | CF | 13 | 36 | 5 | 0.139 | 1 | 5 | 0.262 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.157 | 0.251 | 0.296 | OK |
| Andruw Monasterio | 2B | 94 | 291 | 70 | 0.241 | 6 | 38 | 0.299 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.216 | 0.267 | 0.345 | OK |
| Nick Sogard | 1B | 51 | 187 | 49 | 0.262 | 4 | 16 | 0.359 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.266 | 0.351 | 0.405 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 29 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 0.172 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Noah Cameron | Starter | 28 | 158.0 | 3.99 | 1.222 | 8.3 | 145 | 6.0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 110 | 6.0 | 3 | 4 |
| Steven Cruz | Closer | 53 | 51.0 | 4.41 | 1.353 | 10.4 | 59 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Nate Pearson | Setup Man | 20 | 20.3 | 0.44 | 0.887 | 8.9 | 20 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Payton Tolle | Starter | 24 | 134.2 | 3.22 | 1.103 | 10.7 | 159 | 6.0 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 91 | 6.0 | 5 | 1 |
| Erik Miller | Setup Man | 14 | 14.1 | 0.64 | 1.064 | 16.0 | 25 | 1.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 27 | 1.2 | 0 | 1 |
| Garrett Whitlock | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 50 | 48.3 | 1.86 | 0.828 | 10.6 | 57 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
BOS wins 4-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| WAS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 12 |
Quality edge: 0.2749; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Zach Neto | SS | 143 | 571 | 137 | 0.240 | 25 | 72 | 0.319 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.261 | 0.311 | 0.494 | OK |
| Mike Trout | CF | 129 | 470 | 114 | 0.243 | 21 | 52 | 0.376 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.257 | 0.347 | 0.455 | OK |
| Vaughn Grissom | 1B | 102 | 372 | 90 | 0.242 | 11 | 61 | 0.303 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.232 | 0.288 | 0.366 | OK |
| Moisés Ballesteros | DH | 33 | 120 | 24 | 0.200 | 2 | 9 | 0.248 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.750 | 0.248 | 0.301 | 0.394 | OK |
| Christian Moore | 2B | 25 | 91 | 17 | 0.187 | 1 | 9 | 0.250 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.230 | 0.275 | 0.335 | OK |
| Jose Siri | LF | 76 | 190 | 43 | 0.226 | 8 | 26 | 0.278 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.216 | 0.255 | 0.385 | OK |
| Denzer Guzman | 3B | 66 | 231 | 52 | 0.225 | 7 | 26 | 0.269 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.218 | 0.256 | 0.353 | OK |
| Travis d'Arnaud | C | 27 | 65 | 12 | 0.185 | 1 | 3 | 0.264 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.195 | 0.249 | 0.309 | OK |
| Wade Meckler | RF | 78 | 247 | 73 | 0.296 | 3 | 26 | 0.365 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.294 | 0.363 | 0.390 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 34 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| James Wood | DH | 123 | 470 | 125 | 0.266 | 30 | 75 | 0.393 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.267 | 0.394 | 0.498 | OK |
| Abimelec Ortiz | 1B | 36 | 110 | 24 | 0.218 | 5 | 13 | 0.259 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.600 | 0.136 | 0.173 | 0.237 | OK |
| Dylan Crews | RF | 95 | 361 | 80 | 0.222 | 11 | 39 | 0.290 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.237 | 0.286 | 0.397 | OK |
| CJ Abrams | SS | 141 | 538 | 141 | 0.262 | 30 | 96 | 0.338 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.238 | 0.300 | 0.416 | OK |
| Brady House | 3B | 82 | 292 | 70 | 0.240 | 10 | 43 | 0.299 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.251 | 0.310 | 0.391 | OK |
| Daylen Lile | LF | 148 | 560 | 139 | 0.248 | 20 | 82 | 0.302 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.159 | 0.210 | 0.318 | OK |
| Keibert Ruiz | C | 93 | 308 | 89 | 0.289 | 10 | 47 | 0.325 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.189 | 0.228 | 0.358 | OK |
| Jacob Young | CF | 119 | 394 | 98 | 0.249 | 10 | 44 | 0.308 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.225 | 0.274 | 0.335 | OK |
| Jorbit Vivas | 2B | 105 | 282 | 68 | 0.241 | 3 | 27 | 0.332 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.248 | 0.339 | 0.355 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 36 | 12 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 0.333 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Grayson Rodriguez | Starter | 17 | 79.1 | 6.49 | 1.618 | 8.5 | 75 | 4.2 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 92 | 4.2 | 6 | 3 |
| Ben Joyce | Closer | 13 | 11.4 | 3.95 | 1.140 | 11.8 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Watson | Setup Man | 14 | 9.9 | 2.73 | 1.313 | 13.6 | 15 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Tayler Saucedo | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 21 | 12.0 | 4.50 | 1.500 | 15.0 | 20 | 0.2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0.2 | 2 | 1 |
| José Fermin | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 49 | 44.0 | 3.68 | 1.523 | 12.3 | 60 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Riley Cornelio | Starter | 13 | 23.8 | 5.67 | 1.723 | 10.2 | 27 | 4.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 89 | 4.0 | 4 | 2 |
| Clayton Beeter | Closer | 49 | 43.1 | 4.59 | 1.485 | 9.8 | 47 | 1.0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 1.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Erik Tolman | Setup Man | 8 | 8.4 | 3.21 | 1.429 | 9.6 | 9 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Brad Lord | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 37 | 70.2 | 4.49 | 1.396 | 9.1 | 71 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 27 | 1.2 | 2 | 0 |
| Luis Perales | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 4 | 7.0 | 11.57 | 2.286 | 11.6 | 9 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
WAS wins 6-5
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 10 |
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 5 |
Quality edge: -1.1782; margin adjustment: -0.4948; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Tommy Edman | CF | 67 | 244 | 62 | 0.254 | 6 | 32 | 0.333 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.259 | 0.320 | 0.392 | OK |
| Freddie Freeman | 1B | 140 | 525 | 155 | 0.295 | 16 | 64 | 0.374 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 0.400 | 0.236 | 0.320 | 0.362 | OK |
| Mookie Betts | SS | 108 | 425 | 106 | 0.249 | 20 | 61 | 0.310 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.259 | 0.320 | 0.469 | OK |
| Max Muncy | 3B | 134 | 440 | 112 | 0.255 | 28 | 71 | 0.351 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.323 | 0.404 | 0.543 | OK |
| Will Smith | C | 60 | 201 | 48 | 0.239 | 7 | 28 | 0.328 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.244 | 0.327 | 0.419 | OK |
| Teoscar Hernández | LF | 110 | 389 | 103 | 0.265 | 13 | 57 | 0.331 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.319 | 0.382 | 0.493 | OK |
| Kyle Tucker | RF | 136 | 487 | 111 | 0.228 | 14 | 65 | 0.319 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.268 | 0.347 | 0.532 | OK |
| Josue De Paula | DH | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.375 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.052 | 0.262 | 0.084 | |
| Alex Freeland | 2B | 81 | 218 | 49 | 0.225 | 3 | 20 | 0.308 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.207 | 0.303 | 0.291 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 37 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 2 | 11 | 0.270 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Kyle Stowers | DH | 111 | 409 | 99 | 0.242 | 19 | 60 | 0.332 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.227 | 0.313 | 0.436 | OK |
| Heriberto Hernández | LF | 115 | 396 | 89 | 0.225 | 24 | 63 | 0.305 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.199 | 0.265 | 0.395 | OK |
| Griffin Conine | 1B | 77 | 238 | 63 | 0.265 | 15 | 36 | 0.357 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.244 | 0.318 | 0.433 | OK |
| Otto Lopez | SS | 145 | 578 | 179 | 0.310 | 10 | 67 | 0.350 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.344 | 0.376 | 0.457 | OK |
| Jakob Marsee | CF | 139 | 475 | 105 | 0.221 | 9 | 36 | 0.339 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.246 | 0.319 | 0.339 | OK |
| Javier Sanoja | 2B | 120 | 408 | 119 | 0.292 | 8 | 58 | 0.327 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.299 | 0.333 | 0.472 | OK |
| Owen Caissie | RF | 103 | 291 | 64 | 0.220 | 14 | 57 | 0.282 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.145 | 0.212 | 0.296 | OK |
| Graham Pauley | 3B | 48 | 131 | 28 | 0.214 | 4 | 25 | 0.262 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.237 | 0.285 | 0.434 | OK |
| Joe Mack | C | 92 | 278 | 65 | 0.234 | 13 | 45 | 0.283 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.173 | 0.214 | 0.307 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 32 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Emmet Sheehan | Starter | 21 | 96.8 | 5.30 | 1.312 | 11.0 | 118 | 4.2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 66 | 4.2 | 2 | 2 |
| Tanner Scott | Closer | 63 | 53.2 | 2.88 | 1.071 | 12.2 | 72 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Edgardo Henriquez | Setup Man | 60 | 51.4 | 2.98 | 1.128 | 12.3 | 70 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brock Stewart | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 23 | 20.1 | 2.69 | 1.144 | 9.0 | 20 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Alex Vesia | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 65 | 41.3 | 3.70 | 1.453 | 14.2 | 65 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Eury Pérez | Starter | 26 | 137.7 | 3.99 | 1.256 | 9.8 | 150 | 5.0 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 83 | 5.0 | 6 | 3 |
| Calvin Faucher | Closer | 63 | 54.4 | 4.14 | 1.526 | 11.1 | 67 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Tyler Zuber | Setup Man | 40 | 29.6 | 5.78 | 1.689 | 11.9 | 39 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Michael Petersen | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 59 | 52.8 | 3.58 | 1.231 | 11.8 | 69 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Victor Vodnik | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 14 | 13.6 | 6.62 | 1.544 | 7.9 | 12 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 |
LAD wins 8-5
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| NYY | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | x | 6 | 13 |
Quality edge: 0.8824; margin adjustment: 0.3706; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Francisco Lindor | SS | 89 | 357 | 84 | 0.235 | 20 | 47 | 0.314 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.211 | 0.269 | 0.407 | OK |
| Juan Soto | DH | 95 | 342 | 95 | 0.278 | 25 | 60 | 0.393 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.260 | 0.374 | 0.489 | OK |
| Bo Bichette | 3B | 142 | 567 | 150 | 0.265 | 16 | 73 | 0.314 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.250 | 0.305 | 0.379 | OK |
| Carson Benge | RF | 138 | 529 | 143 | 0.270 | 17 | 56 | 0.335 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.247 | 0.319 | 0.364 | OK |
| Jared Young | 1B | 92 | 292 | 79 | 0.271 | 8 | 35 | 0.331 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.190 | 0.250 | 0.298 | OK |
| Marcus Semien | 2B | 125 | 442 | 99 | 0.224 | 14 | 46 | 0.290 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.235 | 0.300 | 0.332 | OK |
| A.J. Ewing | CF | 105 | 384 | 98 | 0.255 | 9 | 37 | 0.326 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.286 | 0.346 | 0.429 | OK |
| Brett Baty | LF | 121 | 380 | 88 | 0.232 | 10 | 50 | 0.296 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.247 | 0.311 | 0.443 | OK |
| Francisco Alvarez | C | 98 | 327 | 73 | 0.223 | 14 | 35 | 0.309 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.192 | 0.263 | 0.369 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 37 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 7 | 0.270 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Paul Goldschmidt | 1B | 92 | 329 | 83 | 0.252 | 18 | 49 | 0.306 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 0.203 | 0.256 | 0.360 | OK |
| Aaron Judge | DH | 63 | 228 | 56 | 0.246 | 17 | 38 | 0.369 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.253 | 0.366 | 0.493 | OK |
| Cody Bellinger | LF | 118 | 441 | 120 | 0.272 | 15 | 69 | 0.348 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.308 | 0.370 | 0.540 | OK |
| Heliot Ramos | RF | 26 | 73 | 11 | 0.151 | 2 | 7 | 0.287 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.233 | 0.294 | 0.412 | OK |
| Amed Rosario | 3B | 77 | 210 | 50 | 0.238 | 10 | 31 | 0.274 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.191 | 0.232 | 0.290 | OK |
| Spencer Jones | CF | 71 | 213 | 56 | 0.263 | 9 | 34 | 0.336 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.318 | 0.389 | 0.501 | OK |
| George Lombard Jr. | SS | 30 | 103 | 23 | 0.223 | 3 | 11 | 0.287 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.212 | 0.268 | 0.352 | OK |
| Anthony Volpe | 2B | 56 | 179 | 44 | 0.246 | 2 | 22 | 0.328 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.252 | 0.324 | 0.363 | OK |
| Austin Wells | C | 110 | 309 | 55 | 0.178 | 10 | 28 | 0.277 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.135 | 0.260 | 0.213 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 41 | 37 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 0.351 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Christian Scott | Starter | 21 | 94.2 | 4.01 | 1.359 | 11.5 | 120 | 5.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 103 | 5.0 | 4 | 2 |
| Kodai Senga | Closer | 27 | 55.2 | 7.50 | 1.685 | 11.1 | 68 | 0.2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 0.2 | 2 | 1 |
| Daniel Duarte | Setup Man | 23 | 25.4 | 2.48 | 0.906 | 9.9 | 28 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 31 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Nathan Lavender | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 15 | 10.6 | 2.55 | 1.321 | 14.4 | 17 | 1.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 28 | 1.0 | 2 | 3 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Cam Schlittler | Starter | 30 | 174.7 | 2.06 | 0.939 | 11.3 | 220 | 6.1 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 111 | 6.1 | 7 | 1 |
| David Bednar | Closer | 59 | 58.9 | 2.90 | 1.104 | 10.8 | 71 | 1.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 1.0 | 0 | 3 |
| Brent Headrick | Setup Man | 75 | 59.1 | 2.44 | 1.489 | 13.9 | 91 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Paul Blackburn | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 57 | 70.8 | 1.91 | 1.201 | 8.4 | 66 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 0.2 | 0 | 1 |
NYY wins 6-5
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 12 |
Quality edge: 0.3651; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Kyle Schwarber | DH | 141 | 535 | 126 | 0.236 | 43 | 91 | 0.346 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.198 | 0.285 | 0.432 | OK |
| Trea Turner | SS | 141 | 589 | 142 | 0.241 | 19 | 56 | 0.290 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.213 | 0.252 | 0.388 | OK |
| Bryce Harper | RF | 147 | 520 | 141 | 0.271 | 28 | 83 | 0.387 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.263 | 0.377 | 0.453 | OK |
| Luis Arraez | 2B | 35 | 140 | 41 | 0.293 | 2 | 15 | 0.313 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.311 | 0.342 | 0.406 | OK |
| Alec Bohm | 1B | 139 | 520 | 128 | 0.246 | 15 | 79 | 0.309 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.230 | 0.292 | 0.381 | OK |
| Bryson Stott | 3B | 141 | 486 | 120 | 0.247 | 10 | 61 | 0.324 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.218 | 0.297 | 0.341 | OK |
| Brandon Marsh | LF | 140 | 491 | 130 | 0.265 | 17 | 58 | 0.310 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.146 | 0.191 | 0.244 | OK |
| J.T. Realmuto | C | 109 | 372 | 81 | 0.218 | 10 | 46 | 0.291 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.180 | 0.240 | 0.285 | OK |
| Justin Crawford | CF | 132 | 388 | 101 | 0.260 | 3 | 36 | 0.308 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.181 | 0.223 | 0.253 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 34 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 0.118 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | DH | 95 | 361 | 93 | 0.258 | 17 | 47 | 0.350 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.249 | 0.327 | 0.440 | OK |
| Drake Baldwin | C | 125 | 491 | 136 | 0.277 | 23 | 74 | 0.354 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.260 | 0.314 | 0.406 | OK |
| Ozzie Albies | 2B | 148 | 560 | 140 | 0.250 | 21 | 69 | 0.306 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.198 | 0.248 | 0.335 | OK |
| Matt Olson | 1B | 148 | 570 | 140 | 0.246 | 37 | 80 | 0.320 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.235 | 0.309 | 0.480 | OK |
| Mauricio Dubón | LF | 140 | 519 | 138 | 0.266 | 11 | 69 | 0.311 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.248 | 0.283 | 0.355 | OK |
| Michael Harris II | CF | 142 | 540 | 157 | 0.291 | 25 | 83 | 0.316 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.203 | 0.229 | 0.348 | OK |
| Austin Riley | 3B | 146 | 516 | 116 | 0.225 | 17 | 68 | 0.297 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.219 | 0.275 | 0.423 | OK |
| Brewer Hicklen | RF | 8 | 24 | 8 | 0.333 | 0 | 3 | 0.429 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.135 | 0.248 | 0.311 | OK |
| Ha-Seong Kim | SS | 37 | 107 | 14 | 0.131 | 0 | 9 | 0.218 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.145 | 0.212 | 0.175 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 45 | 42 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 0.286 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Andrew Painter | Starter | 22 | 108.0 | 5.83 | 1.444 | 8.1 | 97 | 5.1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 106 | 5.1 | 5 | 2 |
| Jhoan Duran | Closer | 55 | 53.4 | 1.52 | 0.993 | 12.6 | 75 | 1.2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 36 | 1.2 | 1 | 3 |
| Jonathan Bowlan | Setup Man | 57 | 50.8 | 3.54 | 1.102 | 12.2 | 69 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Orion Kerkering | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 60 | 49.0 | 4.59 | 1.531 | 10.8 | 59 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 0.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Chase Shugart | Reliever | 40 | 43.2 | 4.79 | 1.319 | 11.0 | 53 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Grant Holmes | Starter | 29 | 136.4 | 3.70 | 1.349 | 7.4 | 112 | 5.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 91 | 5.0 | 5 | 3 |
| Raisel Iglesias | Closer | 54 | 52.9 | 2.89 | 1.210 | 9.7 | 57 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Dylan Lee | Setup Man | 66 | 55.4 | 2.60 | 0.957 | 12.2 | 75 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Didier Fuentes | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 53 | 61.3 | 2.50 | 1.175 | 12.5 | 85 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 1.2 | 0 | 1 |
| Dylan Dodd | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 44 | 40.2 | 2.69 | 1.045 | 10.5 | 47 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 0.0 | 2 | 0 |
ATL wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 10 |
Quality edge: 0.5674; margin adjustment: 0.2383; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Konnor Griffin | SS | 66 | 256 | 67 | 0.262 | 5 | 27 | 0.318 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.235 | 0.281 | 0.357 | OK |
| Oneil Cruz | CF | 85 | 330 | 90 | 0.273 | 18 | 63 | 0.360 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.257 | 0.326 | 0.426 | OK |
| Bryan Reynolds | LF | 146 | 541 | 144 | 0.266 | 17 | 70 | 0.371 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.258 | 0.337 | 0.443 | OK |
| Rafael Flores Jr. | 1B | 34 | 112 | 28 | 0.250 | 8 | 19 | 0.311 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.262 | 0.317 | 0.491 | OK |
| Nick Gonzales | 2B | 133 | 504 | 152 | 0.302 | 4 | 57 | 0.364 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.295 | 0.345 | 0.377 | OK |
| Ryan O'Hearn | DH | 93 | 355 | 98 | 0.276 | 18 | 71 | 0.336 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.258 | 0.314 | 0.452 | OK |
| Jake Mangum | RF | 112 | 394 | 112 | 0.284 | 4 | 30 | 0.336 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.267 | 0.302 | 0.351 | OK |
| Jared Triolo | 3B | 100 | 301 | 74 | 0.246 | 3 | 28 | 0.319 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.249 | 0.314 | 0.320 | OK |
| Henry Davis | C | 80 | 238 | 39 | 0.164 | 9 | 35 | 0.253 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.150 | 0.233 | 0.282 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 32 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | CF | 147 | 566 | 159 | 0.281 | 41 | 98 | 0.375 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.254 | 0.327 | 0.482 | OK |
| Seiya Suzuki | RF | 129 | 491 | 134 | 0.273 | 24 | 81 | 0.372 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.188 | 0.305 | 0.355 | OK |
| Michael Busch | 1B | 145 | 549 | 131 | 0.239 | 18 | 74 | 0.345 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.238 | 0.334 | 0.456 | OK |
| Alex Bregman | 3B | 145 | 572 | 152 | 0.266 | 25 | 84 | 0.356 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.312 | 0.390 | 0.527 | OK |
| Ian Happ | LF | 139 | 500 | 110 | 0.220 | 23 | 65 | 0.326 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.177 | 0.298 | 0.304 | OK |
| Nico Hoerner | SS | 144 | 574 | 154 | 0.268 | 8 | 67 | 0.318 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.280 | 0.320 | 0.366 | OK |
| Michael Conforto | DH | 97 | 234 | 56 | 0.239 | 14 | 40 | 0.325 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.268 | 0.343 | 0.522 | OK |
| Pedro Ramirez | 2B | 66 | 200 | 54 | 0.270 | 6 | 29 | 0.324 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.265 | 0.311 | 0.492 | OK |
| Miguel Amaya | C | 65 | 197 | 46 | 0.234 | 5 | 23 | 0.329 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.211 | 0.285 | 0.335 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 36 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0.278 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Bubba Chandler | Starter | 28 | 138.5 | 4.35 | 1.372 | 8.4 | 129 | 5.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 91 | 5.0 | 4 | 1 |
| Mason Montgomery | Closer | 62 | 54.2 | 2.82 | 1.144 | 15.8 | 95 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Weaver | Setup Man | 12 | 10.4 | 6.06 | 1.635 | 12.1 | 14 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Gregory Soto | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 62 | 57.2 | 3.15 | 1.136 | 11.5 | 73 | 1.2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 1.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Matthew Boyd | Starter | 19 | 106.3 | 4.15 | 1.251 | 7.3 | 86 | 6.0 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 103 | 6.0 | 3 | 3 |
| Jacob Webb | Closer | 64 | 56.7 | 3.65 | 1.376 | 10.8 | 68 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Ryan Zeferjahn | Setup Man | 15 | 10.3 | 7.86 | 1.942 | 12.2 | 14 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Daniel Palencia | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 26 | 21.9 | 4.52 | 1.416 | 10.3 | 25 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 13 | 1.0 | 3 | 0 |
CHC wins 4-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 9 |
| SF | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 |
Quality edge: -0.6385; margin adjustment: -0.2682; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 2B | 144 | 573 | 164 | 0.286 | 21 | 72 | 0.354 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.312 | 0.385 | 0.507 | OK |
| Dustin Harris | RF | 11 | 35 | 12 | 0.343 | 0 | 6 | 0.351 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.276 | 0.328 | 0.368 | OK |
| Manny Machado | 3B | 144 | 535 | 118 | 0.221 | 26 | 80 | 0.310 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.230 | 0.314 | 0.394 | OK |
| Luis Campusano | DH | 62 | 185 | 52 | 0.281 | 7 | 28 | 0.379 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.279 | 0.362 | 0.450 | OK |
| Jackson Merrill | CF | 144 | 561 | 139 | 0.248 | 25 | 80 | 0.299 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.295 | 0.331 | 0.614 | OK |
| Xander Bogaerts | SS | 141 | 482 | 108 | 0.224 | 11 | 54 | 0.323 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.278 | 0.364 | 0.363 | OK |
| Jake Cronenworth | 1B | 94 | 326 | 68 | 0.209 | 5 | 28 | 0.293 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.199 | 0.271 | 0.289 | OK |
| Samad Taylor | LF | 35 | 116 | 36 | 0.310 | 1 | 11 | 0.389 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.276 | 0.346 | 0.364 | OK |
| Ethan Salas | C | 6 | 14 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.092 | 0.104 | 0.142 | |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 35 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 0.257 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Drew Gilbert | LF | 111 | 311 | 75 | 0.241 | 9 | 38 | 0.309 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.229 | 0.281 | 0.390 | OK |
| Jung Hoo Lee | RF | 132 | 503 | 140 | 0.278 | 8 | 52 | 0.320 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.228 | 0.259 | 0.324 | OK |
| Bryce Eldridge | 1B | 102 | 366 | 98 | 0.268 | 16 | 53 | 0.358 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.269 | 0.356 | 0.463 | OK |
| Jonah Cox | CF | 38 | 101 | 29 | 0.287 | 4 | 11 | 0.327 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.276 | 0.316 | 0.403 | OK |
| Player-814154 | DH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.236 | 0.307 | 0.405 | |
| Shay Whitcomb | 2B | 15 | 53 | 10 | 0.189 | 2 | 6 | 0.189 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.183 | 0.190 | 0.370 | OK |
| Andrew Knizner | C | 16 | 43 | 7 | 0.163 | 1 | 1 | 0.234 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.191 | 0.239 | 0.324 | OK |
| Brett Harris | 3B | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.080 | 0.183 | 0.129 | |
| Christian Koss | SS | 52 | 155 | 36 | 0.232 | 4 | 9 | 0.279 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.242 | 0.295 | 0.381 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 32 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Nick Pivetta | Starter | 5 | 21.0 | 3.43 | 0.952 | 11.1 | 26 | 5.0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 80 | 5.0 | 7 | 4 |
| Mason Miller | Closer | 60 | 60.3 | 1.19 | 0.896 | 17.5 | 117 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Adrian Morejon | Setup Man | 70 | 71.8 | 3.13 | 1.184 | 12.5 | 100 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Bradgley Rodriguez | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 61 | 57.7 | 2.03 | 1.127 | 11.5 | 74 | 1.2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 1.2 | 2 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Logan Webb | Starter | 26 | 154.5 | 4.14 | 1.159 | 7.4 | 127 | 5.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 96 | 5.1 | 5 | 1 |
| Dylan Smith | Closer | 36 | 30.6 | 3.53 | 1.569 | 12.1 | 41 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Trent Harris | Setup Man | 14 | 15.3 | 2.94 | 1.307 | 12.4 | 21 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Carson Seymour | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 18 | 22.2 | 6.08 | 1.892 | 7.7 | 19 | 1.0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 30 | 1.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Jason Foley | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 19 | 18.0 | 4.50 | 1.778 | 6.0 | 12 | 0.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0.2 | 0 | 1 |
SD wins 6-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
| OAK | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
Quality edge: -0.7207; margin adjustment: -0.3027; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| J.P. Crawford | SS | 103 | 363 | 81 | 0.223 | 11 | 35 | 0.343 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.238 | 0.330 | 0.363 | OK |
| Randy Arozarena | LF | 141 | 524 | 143 | 0.273 | 23 | 71 | 0.371 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.258 | 0.324 | 0.439 | OK |
| Dominic Canzone | RF | 131 | 427 | 110 | 0.258 | 22 | 68 | 0.324 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.267 | 0.320 | 0.491 | OK |
| Cal Raleigh | DH | 113 | 406 | 73 | 0.180 | 21 | 60 | 0.294 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.183 | 0.297 | 0.360 | OK |
| Julio Rodríguez | CF | 137 | 548 | 133 | 0.243 | 21 | 65 | 0.302 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.270 | 0.315 | 0.430 | OK |
| Josh Naylor | 1B | 139 | 545 | 147 | 0.270 | 10 | 50 | 0.325 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.292 | 0.329 | 0.362 | OK |
| Michael Arroyo | 2B | 3 | 8 | 3 | 0.375 | 1 | 3 | 0.400 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.350 | 0.416 | 0.782 | OK |
| Weston Wilson | 3B | 38 | 104 | 22 | 0.212 | 3 | 10 | 0.281 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.325 | 0.383 | 0.419 | OK |
| Jhonny Pereda | C | 27 | 82 | 23 | 0.280 | 2 | 6 | 0.337 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.271 | 0.324 | 0.343 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 34 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 11 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Henry Bolte | CF | 102 | 364 | 101 | 0.277 | 10 | 33 | 0.355 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.289 | 0.360 | 0.449 | OK |
| Jeff McNeil | 1B | 129 | 433 | 116 | 0.268 | 8 | 54 | 0.314 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.264 | 0.306 | 0.372 | OK |
| Zack Gelof | 3B | 94 | 346 | 86 | 0.249 | 17 | 44 | 0.312 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.210 | 0.257 | 0.387 | OK |
| Lawrence Butler | RF | 134 | 422 | 96 | 0.227 | 14 | 54 | 0.314 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.224 | 0.295 | 0.379 | OK |
| Max Muncy | DH | 79 | 251 | 59 | 0.235 | 9 | 30 | 0.301 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.249 | 0.305 | 0.397 | OK |
| Donovan Walton | 2B | 43 | 104 | 24 | 0.231 | 4 | 13 | 0.394 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.264 | 0.352 | 0.502 | OK |
| Carlos Cortes | LF | 110 | 316 | 82 | 0.259 | 9 | 40 | 0.325 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.263 | 0.318 | 0.402 | OK |
| Brian Serven | C | 20 | 66 | 14 | 0.212 | 5 | 14 | 0.246 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.151 | 0.181 | 0.293 | OK |
| Alika Williams | SS | 67 | 190 | 48 | 0.253 | 4 | 15 | 0.283 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.229 | 0.257 | 0.374 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 32 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Bryce Miller | Starter | 19 | 98.6 | 4.38 | 1.187 | 9.2 | 101 | 5.1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 88 | 5.1 | 7 | 4 |
| Andrés Muñoz | Closer | 56 | 51.3 | 3.86 | 1.189 | 14.9 | 85 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 25 | 1.2 | 2 | 0 |
| José A. Ferrer | Setup Man | 66 | 51.6 | 4.36 | 1.647 | 8.4 | 48 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 24 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Eduard Bazardo | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 67 | 52.3 | 4.65 | 1.740 | 11.0 | 64 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jacob Lopez | Starter | 24 | 108.2 | 4.91 | 1.488 | 8.7 | 104 | 5.0 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 7 | 96 | 5.0 | 7 | 6 |
| Elvis Alvarado | Closer | 49 | 42.7 | 4.64 | 1.429 | 12.2 | 58 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 1.1 | 3 | 0 |
| Hogan Harris | Setup Man | 68 | 53.7 | 4.02 | 1.732 | 13.9 | 83 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Luis Medina | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 51 | 62.2 | 3.33 | 1.431 | 12.4 | 86 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
SEA wins 6-5
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| ARI | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
Quality edge: 0.3117; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Justin Foscue | 2B | 84 | 205 | 55 | 0.268 | 11 | 33 | 0.317 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.192 | 0.240 | 0.365 | OK |
| Corey Seager | SS | 88 | 329 | 74 | 0.225 | 17 | 40 | 0.319 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.223 | 0.301 | 0.445 | OK |
| Josh Jung | 3B | 93 | 359 | 106 | 0.295 | 9 | 36 | 0.362 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.279 | 0.330 | 0.382 | OK |
| Jake Burger | 1B | 141 | 510 | 120 | 0.235 | 26 | 83 | 0.304 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.212 | 0.299 | 0.407 | OK |
| Brandon Nimmo | RF | 143 | 547 | 143 | 0.261 | 14 | 59 | 0.327 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.226 | 0.283 | 0.349 | OK |
| Wyatt Langford | LF | 97 | 369 | 90 | 0.244 | 17 | 39 | 0.331 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.219 | 0.302 | 0.437 | OK |
| Ezequiel Duran | CF | 138 | 493 | 132 | 0.268 | 17 | 80 | 0.328 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.240 | 0.295 | 0.394 | OK |
| Elias Díaz | C | 59 | 178 | 43 | 0.242 | 5 | 26 | 0.266 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.258 | 0.281 | 0.424 | OK |
| Danny Jansen | DH | 53 | 161 | 30 | 0.186 | 6 | 20 | 0.276 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.210 | 0.266 | 0.393 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 31 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Lars Nootbaar | LF | 27 | 80 | 18 | 0.225 | 2 | 8 | 0.340 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.251 | 0.355 | 0.383 | OK |
| Ketel Marte | 2B | 127 | 508 | 127 | 0.250 | 22 | 73 | 0.316 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.240 | 0.299 | 0.394 | OK |
| Gabriel Moreno | DH | 118 | 427 | 129 | 0.302 | 12 | 72 | 0.379 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.306 | 0.378 | 0.452 | OK |
| Geraldo Perdomo | SS | 143 | 512 | 127 | 0.248 | 9 | 49 | 0.355 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.232 | 0.332 | 0.318 | OK |
| Corbin Carroll | RF | 142 | 528 | 127 | 0.241 | 20 | 64 | 0.334 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.222 | 0.296 | 0.448 | OK |
| Nolan Arenado | 3B | 138 | 479 | 114 | 0.238 | 24 | 70 | 0.319 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.270 | 0.357 | 0.532 | OK |
| Tim Tawa | 1B | 83 | 267 | 66 | 0.247 | 10 | 37 | 0.301 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.262 | 0.317 | 0.437 | OK |
| James McCann | C | 35 | 115 | 34 | 0.296 | 4 | 21 | 0.325 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.279 | 0.308 | 0.412 | OK |
| Jordan Lawlar | CF | 30 | 93 | 24 | 0.258 | 4 | 10 | 0.317 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.244 | 0.266 | 0.372 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 36 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Cal Quantrill | Starter | 30 | 100.8 | 2.95 | 1.081 | 6.9 | 77 | 6.0 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 107 | 6.0 | 5 | 3 |
| Jacob Latz | Closer | 51 | 60.7 | 1.48 | 0.741 | 10.7 | 72 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Jakob Junis | Setup Man | 47 | 46.6 | 2.90 | 1.266 | 6.8 | 35 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chase Silseth | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 18 | 12.3 | 5.85 | 1.870 | 11.0 | 15 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Eduardo Rodriguez | Starter | 29 | 169.5 | 2.60 | 1.227 | 6.8 | 128 | 6.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 91 | 6.0 | 6 | 2 |
| Brandyn Garcia | Closer | 36 | 26.8 | 2.01 | 0.784 | 12.1 | 36 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Juan Morillo | Setup Man | 48 | 40.4 | 2.90 | 1.114 | 12.3 | 55 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Jonathan Loáisiga | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 48 | 40.8 | 3.09 | 1.225 | 7.1 | 32 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
TEX wins 4-3