MLB Predictions — September 12, 2026

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
BAL @ TOR	3 - 4	3 - 4	TOR	TOR	TOR wins 4-3	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CHW @ STL	3 - 4	3 - 4	STL	STL	STL wins 4-3	59%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CIN @ MIL	6 - 10	6 - 10	MIL	MIL	MIL wins 10-6	54%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CLE @ MIN	6 - 4	6 - 4	CLE	CLE	CLE wins 6-4	54%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
COL @ DET	4 - 7	4 - 7	DET	DET	DET wins 7-4	60%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
HOU @ TB	4 - 5	4 - 5	TB	TB	TB wins 5-4	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
KC @ BOS	4 - 6	4 - 6	BOS	BOS	BOS wins 6-4	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
LAA @ WAS	4 - 3	4 - 3	LAA	LAA	LAA wins 4-3	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
LAD @ MIA	7 - 4	7 - 4	LAD	LAD	LAD wins 7-4	60%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
NYM @ NYY	5 - 7	5 - 7	NYY	NYY	NYY wins 7-5	54%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
PHI @ ATL	4 - 3	4 - 3	PHI	PHI	PHI wins 4-3	50%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
PIT @ CHC	4 - 5	4 - 5	CHC	CHC	CHC wins 5-4	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SD @ SF	5 - 4	5 - 4	SD	SD	SD wins 5-4	50%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
SEA @ OAK	6 - 5	6 - 5	SEA	SEA	SEA wins 6-5	52%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TEX @ ARI	4 - 5	4 - 5	ARI	ARI	ARI wins 5-4	56%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays

BAL 72-76 (4.51 RPG / 4.68 RA)

3 - 4

TOR 73-75 (4.01 RPG / 4.29 RA)

WINNER: TOR wins 4-3 TARGET: BAL 3 - 4 TOR (TOR) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
BAL	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	3	6
TOR	2	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	x	4	6

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs4.0

Avg Allowed4.7

Run Diff-7

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2W

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.5

Avg Allowed3.7

Run Diff8

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2L

BAL Season Quality

Record72-76

Win%0.486

Run Diff-24

RD/Game-0.162

TOR Season Quality

Record73-75

Win%0.493

Run Diff-42

RD/Game-0.284

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.0675; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jackson Holliday	2B	90	298	68	0.228	7	30	0.295	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.211	0.263	0.315	OK
Pete Alonso	1B	145	542	145	0.268	34	97	0.361	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.241	0.330	0.438	OK
Gunnar Henderson	SS	142	567	125	0.220	21	56	0.304	4	4	2	1	1	0	2	0.500	0.231	0.305	0.355	OK
Coby Mayo	DH	112	359	81	0.226	23	60	0.290	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.230	0.287	0.523	OK
Samuel Basallo	C	101	337	77	0.228	17	51	0.296	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.219	0.279	0.359	OK
Christian Encarnacion-Strand	3B	44	149	38	0.255	7	30	0.304	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.258	0.296	0.425	OK
Dylan Beavers	LF	87	273	68	0.249	7	38	0.318	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.249	0.303	0.432	OK
Colton Cowser	CF	114	301	65	0.216	12	36	0.303	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.205	0.293	0.350	OK
Leody Taveras	RF	122	399	87	0.218	8	54	0.287	3	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.212	0.275	0.336	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	33	6	3	3	1	9	0.182

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Brett Bateman	CF	29	118	40	0.339	1	9	0.402	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.326	0.370	0.442	OK
George Springer	DH	111	419	104	0.248	14	47	0.322	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.230	0.290	0.348	OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.	1B	132	501	130	0.259	8	54	0.327	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.260	0.321	0.343	OK
Alejandro Kirk	C	67	242	66	0.273	9	36	0.342	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.258	0.326	0.383	OK
Nathan Lukes	RF	109	369	101	0.274	10	36	0.322	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.294	0.323	0.377	OK
Kazuma Okamoto	3B	141	521	122	0.234	31	84	0.307	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.255	0.316	0.570	OK
Andrés Giménez	SS	130	433	105	0.242	9	54	0.289	3	3	1	1	1	0	2	0.333	0.229	0.259	0.355	OK
Ernie Clement	2B	144	546	149	0.273	9	46	0.300	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.247	0.278	0.336	OK
Myles Straw	LF	111	263	62	0.236	3	23	0.293	3	2	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.254	0.318	0.353	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	30	6	4	4	2	9	0.200

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Kyle Bradish	Starter	28	148.5	4.00	1.455	8.5	140	5.1	6	4	4	2	6	101	5.1	6	4
Andrew Kittredge	Closer	52	41.0	4.17	1.561	8.3	38	1.2	0	0	0	0	2	21	1.2	2	0
Rico Garcia	Setup Man	69	53.8	2.84	1.041	10.9	65	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Spencer Miles	Starter	45	80.9	3.00	1.137	9.0	81	5.0	1	2	2	0	4	66	5.0	4	2
Louis Varland	Closer	66	67.2	1.34	1.086	11.9	89	1.2	1	0	0	0	1	24	1.2	1	0
Tyler Rogers	Setup Man	68	61.0	1.92	1.262	5.3	36	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	19	1.0	2	1
Mason Fluharty	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	74	43.8	3.70	1.530	12.7	62	1.1	2	0	0	1	2	23	1.1	2	0

Game Summary

TOR wins 4-3

Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals

CHW 75-72 (4.68 RPG / 4.44 RA)

3 - 4

STL 73-75 (4.56 RPG / 4.61 RA)

WINNER: STL wins 4-3 TARGET: CHW 3 - 4 STL (STL) Confidence: 59.1% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CHW	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	3	8
STL	2	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	4	5

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.3

Avg Allowed3.9

Run Diff-6

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak4L

STL Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs6.5

Avg Allowed5.8

Run Diff7

Off Trendhot

Def Trendweak

Streak1W

CHW Season Quality

Record75-72

Win%0.510

Run Diff35

RD/Game0.238

STL Season Quality

Record73-75

Win%0.493

Run Diff-8

RD/Game-0.054

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.037; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Sam Antonacci	LF	126	435	116	0.267	8	44	0.365	5	4	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.271	0.331	0.396	OK
Miguel Vargas	3B	144	538	133	0.247	30	79	0.356	5	3	0	1	1	2	1	0.000	0.229	0.313	0.396	OK
Munetaka Murakami	1B	112	401	83	0.207	31	64	0.345	5	4	1	0	0	1	2	0.250	0.192	0.314	0.442	OK
Andrew Benintendi	DH	130	393	95	0.242	14	70	0.303	5	5	2	1	2	0	0	0.400	0.156	0.228	0.292	OK
Colson Montgomery	SS	139	525	109	0.208	31	83	0.288	5	4	2	1	0	1	1	0.500	0.166	0.231	0.335	OK
Braden Montgomery	RF	78	281	61	0.217	6	37	0.312	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.205	0.303	0.332	OK
Tristan Peters	CF	135	401	112	0.279	12	53	0.342	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.201	0.260	0.351	OK
Chase Meidroth	2B	140	520	140	0.269	14	53	0.344	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.267	0.344	0.520	OK
Kyle Teel	C	26	80	17	0.212	4	18	0.284	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.196	0.257	0.353	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	35	8	3	3	6	7	0.229

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
José Fermín	CF	103	296	73	0.247	6	38	0.305	4	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.254	0.307	0.358	OK
Iván Herrera	DH	144	549	135	0.246	15	62	0.354	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.258	0.324	0.375	OK
Jordan Walker	RF	141	549	155	0.282	26	95	0.339	4	3	1	1	2	1	1	0.333	0.261	0.311	0.424	OK
Alec Burleson	1B	143	547	155	0.283	22	103	0.349	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.287	0.358	0.469	OK
Joshua Baez	LF	25	84	23	0.274	7	18	0.319	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.288	0.321	0.595	OK
Leonardo Bernal	C	10	40	13	0.325	2	12	0.386	4	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.303	0.355	0.453	OK
Masyn Winn	SS	119	432	101	0.234	5	52	0.306	3	3	1	1	0	0	1	0.333	0.202	0.269	0.316	OK
Thomas Saggese	2B	38	116	31	0.267	4	12	0.326	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.279	0.340	0.447	OK
Ramón Urías	3B	31	83	13	0.157	4	9	0.245	3	2	1	1	1	1	0	0.500	0.099	0.176	0.222	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	29	5	4	4	2	10	0.172

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Sean Newcomb	Starter	52	72.5	3.10	1.269	9.2	74	5.0	3	2	2	1	7	88	5.0	7	2
Grant Taylor	Closer	41	51.9	2.60	1.118	13.2	76	1.1	0	0	0	1	2	31	1.1	2	0
Bryan Hudson	Setup Man	60	52.8	2.90	1.307	9.4	55	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	8	0.2	1	0
Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	42	33.7	4.54	1.780	13.1	49	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	19	1.0	0	2

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Kyle Leahy	Starter	27	130.6	3.45	1.340	8.5	124	5.0	2	0	0	5	3	97	5.0	3	0
Riley O'Brien	Closer	61	56.2	4.16	1.317	9.3	58	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	20	1.1	0	0
George Soriano	Setup Man	66	53.6	5.21	1.604	10.4	62	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	8	0.2	2	0
Ryne Stanek	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	64	49.6	4.90	1.573	11.1	61	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	19	1.0	1	0
Justin Bruihl	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	65	60.8	4.29	1.595	7.5	51	1.0	3	3	3	1	1	26	1.0	1	3

Game Summary

STL wins 4-3

Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers

CIN 69-78 (4.16 RPG / 5.12 RA)

6 - 10

MIL 92-56 (5.15 RPG / 3.85 RA)

WINNER: MIL wins 10-6 TARGET: CIN 6 - 10 MIL (MIL) Confidence: 54.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	R	H
CIN	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	2	1	0	0	6	11
MIL	0	0	4	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	2	10	12

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.1

Avg Allowed7.5

Run Diff-34

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak4L

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs7.6

Avg Allowed4.7

Run Diff29

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak4W

CIN Season Quality

Record69-78

Win%0.469

Run Diff-142

RD/Game-0.966

MIL Season Quality

Record92-56

Win%0.622

Run Diff192

RD/Game1.297

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 2.0382; margin adjustment: 3.2611; applied: True

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Dane Myers	CF	91	248	65	0.262	5	22	0.349	6	5	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.282	0.344	0.375	OK
Elly De La Cruz	SS	125	491	140	0.285	26	70	0.366	6	5	2	1	2	1	0	0.400	0.275	0.357	0.613	OK
Sal Stewart	1B	144	552	148	0.268	30	104	0.337	6	6	3	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.262	0.326	0.398	OK
Tyler Stephenson	C	114	368	92	0.250	15	52	0.332	6	6	2	1	0	0	1	0.333	0.240	0.320	0.389	OK
Eugenio Suárez	DH	111	386	81	0.210	22	63	0.305	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.183	0.284	0.400	OK
JJ Bleday	LF	115	410	89	0.217	22	55	0.326	5	5	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.164	0.269	0.307	OK
Matt McLain	2B	117	398	75	0.188	15	39	0.279	5	5	2	1	0	0	0	0.400	0.166	0.243	0.298	OK
Juan Brito	3B	5	15	4	0.267	1	5	0.333	5	5	1	1	0	0	2	0.200	0.197	0.263	0.330	OK
Héctor Rodríguez	RF	29	102	25	0.245	5	12	0.300	5	5	1	1	2	0	1	0.200	0.235	0.278	0.386	OK
TEAM TOTALS									49	47	11	6	6	2	10	0.234

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Sal Frelick	RF	96	307	73	0.238	4	35	0.299	6	6	2	2	7	0	3	0.333	0.243	0.289	0.322	OK
Jake Bauers	1B	126	425	114	0.268	24	78	0.390	6	6	1	1	1	0	0	0.167	0.273	0.402	0.569	OK
Jackson Chourio	LF	111	466	139	0.298	23	67	0.354	6	6	1	1	0	0	1	0.167	0.369	0.407	0.594	OK
Christian Yelich	DH	103	387	90	0.233	11	51	0.314	6	6	1	1	1	0	1	0.167	0.218	0.295	0.393	OK
William Contreras	C	134	520	141	0.271	16	82	0.340	5	5	1	1	0	0	1	0.200	0.274	0.335	0.525	OK
Brice Turang	2B	134	521	140	0.269	18	91	0.363	5	5	1	1	0	0	1	0.200	0.375	0.469	0.622	OK
Garrett Mitchell	CF	124	408	105	0.257	9	54	0.343	5	5	3	1	0	0	0	0.600	0.290	0.352	0.482	OK
Cooper Pratt	SS	58	184	48	0.261	3	28	0.329	5	5	1	1	0	0	1	0.200	0.246	0.322	0.335	OK
David Hamilton	3B	102	309	75	0.243	4	25	0.308	5	4	1	1	1	1	1	0.250	0.184	0.247	0.279	OK
TEAM TOTALS									49	48	12	10	10	1	9	0.250

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Brady Singer	Starter	28	143.4	5.15	1.499	7.5	120	5.0	8	7	7	1	4	91	5.0	4	6
Emilio Pagán	Closer	38	35.5	4.06	1.099	9.4	37	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0
Luis Mey	Setup Man	23	26.8	7.05	1.866	14.4	43	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	19	0.0	1	0
Brock Burke	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	72	60.0	2.85	1.483	10.8	72	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	21	1.2	1	0
Graham Ashcraft	Reliever	27	26.9	2.34	1.227	11.4	34	3.0	2	3	3	0	2	26	0.0	2	3

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Shane Drohan	Starter	28	111.3	4.20	1.348	9.3	115	5.0	4	2	2	1	5	79	5.0	5	2
Trevor Megill	Closer	56	54.5	1.98	0.881	10.4	63	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	0.0	0	0
Abner Uribe	Setup Man	54	47.9	2.25	1.086	10.0	53	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Aaron Ashby	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	69	73.1	3.57	1.505	13.4	109	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	19	1.0	0	1
Antonio Senzatela	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	16	13.0	6.92	1.846	6.2	9	2.1	4	3	3	0	1	37	2.0	1	3
JoJo Romero	Middle Reliever	5	4.4	4.09	1.818	6.1	3	1.1	0	0	0	1	3	21	0.0	3	0

Game Summary

MIL wins 10-6

Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins

CLE 75-73 (4.07 RPG / 4.16 RA)

6 - 4

MIN 69-78 (4.61 RPG / 4.99 RA)

WINNER: CLE wins 6-4 TARGET: CLE 6 - 4 MIN (CLE) Confidence: 54.1% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
CLE	0	0	2	4	0	0	0	0	0	6	10
MIN	2	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	7

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.0

Avg Allowed5.6

Run Diff-16

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak1W

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs5.1

Avg Allowed5.1

Run Diff0

Off Trendhot

Def Trendweak

Streak2L

CLE Season Quality

Record75-73

Win%0.507

Run Diff-13

RD/Game-0.088

MIN Season Quality

Record69-78

Win%0.469

Run Diff-56

RD/Game-0.381

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.1794; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Steven Kwan	CF	132	479	132	0.276	2	27	0.371	5	5	1	1	1	0	0	0.200	0.285	0.368	0.357	OK
Chase DeLauter	RF	117	441	129	0.293	14	61	0.362	5	4	1	1	0	1	0	0.250	0.270	0.329	0.435	OK
José Ramírez	DH	109	411	95	0.231	11	48	0.324	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.214	0.298	0.337	OK
Jo Adell	LF	33	122	28	0.230	4	23	0.317	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.231	0.269	0.372	OK
Nathaniel Lowe	1B	30	101	22	0.218	5	21	0.278	5	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.230	0.311	0.488	OK
Angel Genao	3B	28	102	24	0.235	2	6	0.284	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.145	0.190	0.218	OK
Travis Bazzana	2B	107	388	94	0.242	11	48	0.337	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.271	0.363	0.462	OK
Patrick Bailey	C	63	186	46	0.247	7	29	0.312	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.167	0.237	0.260	OK
Brayan Rocchio	SS	137	481	119	0.247	11	58	0.306	4	4	3	1	5	0	0	0.750	0.240	0.285	0.368	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	36	10	6	6	3	1	0.278

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Luke Keaschall	RF	137	475	129	0.272	9	44	0.364	5	4	2	1	1	1	1	0.500	0.254	0.333	0.362	OK
Brooks Lee	3B	138	528	130	0.246	23	78	0.293	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.228	0.266	0.386	OK
Kody Clemens	2B	129	478	116	0.243	26	74	0.303	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.250	0.304	0.507	OK
Ryan Jeffers	C	79	282	76	0.270	14	54	0.365	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.249	0.329	0.477	OK
Josh Bell	DH	141	518	132	0.255	19	86	0.319	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.218	0.282	0.395	OK
Royce Lewis	1B	112	412	95	0.231	14	52	0.296	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.218	0.274	0.361	OK
Trevor Larnach	LF	118	380	101	0.266	12	46	0.344	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.180	0.256	0.320	OK
Kaelen Culpepper	SS	29	105	30	0.286	3	11	0.339	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.246	0.284	0.352	OK
Walker Jenkins	CF	12	37	4	0.108	1	5	0.250	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.150	0.257	0.276	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	34	7	4	4	3	7	0.206

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Daniel Espino	Starter	9	9.3	2.90	1.398	17.4	18	3.0	5	3	3	2	4	73	3.0	4	3
Cade Smith	Closer	62	62.5	2.30	1.104	13.7	95	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
Hunter Gaddis	Setup Man	59	44.6	3.03	1.345	10.1	50	1.1	1	1	1	1	1	24	1.1	1	1
Erik Sabrowski	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	52	33.9	3.45	1.327	17.8	67	2.0	0	0	0	0	0	36	2.0	0	0
Tim Herrin	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	61	40.0	3.82	1.575	10.8	48	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	20	1.1	2	0

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Connor Prielipp	Starter	21	106.6	5.32	1.379	9.8	116	5.0	7	4	4	3	0	104	5.0	0	4
Yoendrys Gómez	Closer	50	39.3	3.44	1.450	10.1	44	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	19	1.0	0	2
Jeff Hoffman	Setup Man	14	10.8	3.33	1.481	15.0	18	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
A.J. Minter	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	17	13.3	2.03	1.203	9.5	14	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Andrew Morris	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	56	58.4	4.62	1.558	9.4	61	0.2	1	0	0	0	0	11	0.2	0	0
Kody Funderburk	Middle Reliever	51	38.8	4.87	1.675	10.0	43	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	4	0.1	1	0

Game Summary

CLE wins 6-4

Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers

COL 55-92 (4.68 RPG / 5.76 RA)

4 - 7

DET 68-79 (4.4 RPG / 4.0 RA)

WINNER: DET wins 7-4 TARGET: COL 4 - 7 DET (DET) Confidence: 59.9% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
COL	0	0	0	0	3	0	0	0	1	4	3
DET	2	0	0	0	0	1	4	0	x	7	7

COL Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs4.4

Avg Allowed6.0

Run Diff-16

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak5L

DET Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs5.0

Avg Allowed4.6

Run Diff4

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2W

COL Season Quality

Record55-92

Win%0.374

Run Diff-158

RD/Game-1.075

DET Season Quality

Record68-79

Win%0.463

Run Diff59

RD/Game0.401

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.2081; margin adjustment: 0.5074; applied: True

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jake McCarthy	LF	126	489	145	0.297	15	75	0.337	4	3	0	1	0	1	2	0.000	0.302	0.329	0.459	OK
Connor Norby	2B	28	89	24	0.270	3	12	0.369	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.226	0.308	0.384	OK
Hunter Goodman	C	127	475	115	0.242	37	78	0.308	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.187	0.235	0.401	OK
TJ Rumfield	1B	139	496	147	0.296	15	66	0.388	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.268	0.353	0.418	OK
Cole Carrigg	CF	75	271	72	0.266	7	39	0.339	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.257	0.320	0.427	OK
Kyle Karros	3B	114	357	93	0.261	11	45	0.355	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.213	0.291	0.396	OK
Jordan Beck	RF	51	142	28	0.197	1	11	0.253	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.189	0.248	0.278	OK
Adael Amador	DH	13	39	13	0.333	3	10	0.409	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.310	0.380	0.562	OK
Ezequiel Tovar	SS	130	424	91	0.215	10	41	0.262	3	3	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.202	0.250	0.289	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	30	3	4	4	5	10	0.100

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Kevin McGonigle	3B	140	538	146	0.271	16	62	0.372	4	4	3	1	3	0	0	0.750	0.270	0.367	0.447	OK
Hao-Yu Lee	2B	93	266	69	0.259	8	37	0.316	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.221	0.311	0.360	OK
Colt Keith	DH	130	368	93	0.253	10	34	0.308	4	2	0	1	1	1	0	0.000	0.243	0.286	0.398	OK
Riley Greene	LF	124	454	128	0.282	19	67	0.371	4	4	0	1	0	0	3	0.000	0.335	0.409	0.571	OK
Eduardo Valencia	C	30	93	28	0.301	6	18	0.316	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.256	0.266	0.464	OK
Max Clark	CF	36	124	30	0.242	3	15	0.324	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.245	0.316	0.446	OK
Spencer Torkelson	1B	142	477	103	0.216	21	64	0.309	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.135	0.225	0.273	OK
Brett Callahan	RF	18	45	10	0.222	1	7	0.265	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.225	0.259	0.375	OK
John Peck	SS	8	27	6	0.222	0	4	0.364	3	2	0	1	0	1	0	0.000	0.220	0.321	0.310	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	30	7	7	7	3	11	0.233

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tanner Gordon	Starter	21	91.7	5.50	1.450	7.5	76	5.0	5	3	3	1	10	94	5.0	10	3
Jordan Romano	Closer	21	18.5	2.92	1.189	9.2	19	1.2	2	4	4	2	0	47	1.2	0	3
Brennan Bernardino	Setup Man	67	46.6	3.09	1.373	7.9	41	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	19	1.1	1	0

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Andrew Sears	Starter	3	11.4	4.74	1.316	6.3	8	4.0	2	3	3	5	7	88	4.0	7	3
Kenley Jansen	Closer	44	36.5	3.45	1.205	11.1	45	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Tyler Holton	Setup Man	63	58.5	3.23	1.453	8.5	55	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	17	1.1	2	0
Kyle Finnegan	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	58	51.4	3.68	1.673	8.1	46	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Drew Sommers	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	37	25.6	3.87	1.445	18.6	53	1.2	1	1	1	0	0	33	1.2	0	1

Game Summary

DET wins 7-4

Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays

HOU 75-73 (4.48 RPG / 4.76 RA)

4 - 5

TB 88-59 (4.52 RPG / 4.13 RA)

WINNER: TB wins 5-4 TARGET: HOU 4 - 5 TB (TB) Confidence: 53.2% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
HOU	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	0	4	6
TB	0	0	1	0	0	0	2	2	x	5	5

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs3.3

Avg Allowed3.5

Run Diff-2

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

TB Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.7

Avg Allowed4.2

Run Diff5

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1W

HOU Season Quality

Record75-73

Win%0.507

Run Diff-42

RD/Game-0.284

TB Season Quality

Record88-59

Win%0.599

Run Diff58

RD/Game0.395

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.6145; margin adjustment: 0.2581; applied: True

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jeremy Peña	SS	97	391	106	0.271	17	47	0.323	5	5	1	1	0	0	1	0.200	0.236	0.269	0.357	OK
Yordan Alvarez	DH	144	518	162	0.313	38	96	0.430	5	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.232	0.346	0.454	OK
Isaac Paredes	3B	140	508	130	0.256	19	82	0.356	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.248	0.324	0.405	OK
Jose Altuve	2B	120	467	115	0.246	15	44	0.305	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.236	0.282	0.365	OK
Christian Walker	1B	141	521	119	0.228	25	80	0.302	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.216	0.275	0.382	OK
Nelson Velázquez	LF	9	20	2	0.100	1	4	0.143	4	3	1	1	2	1	0	0.333	0.188	0.243	0.385	OK
Daulton Varsho	CF	33	127	24	0.189	4	13	0.248	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.220	0.271	0.358	OK
Cam Smith	RF	135	465	102	0.219	20	53	0.284	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.241	0.301	0.497	OK
Yainer Diaz	C	78	286	78	0.273	11	35	0.302	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.291	0.319	0.436	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	33	6	4	4	4	9	0.182

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Yandy Díaz	DH	141	561	171	0.305	22	80	0.370	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.288	0.336	0.449	OK
Jonathan Aranda	1B	142	536	149	0.278	19	86	0.360	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.263	0.330	0.412	OK
Junior Caminero	3B	146	558	156	0.280	40	95	0.366	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.265	0.346	0.546	OK
Liam Hicks	C	30	91	27	0.297	4	17	0.387	4	2	0	1	1	2	0	0.000	0.254	0.320	0.398	OK
Chandler Simpson	LF	135	523	160	0.306	0	31	0.334	4	4	0	1	1	0	0	0.000	0.279	0.313	0.324	OK
Victor Mesa Jr.	RF	59	192	47	0.245	13	28	0.305	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.286	0.345	0.576	OK
Cedric Mullins	CF	123	414	84	0.203	14	45	0.285	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.179	0.253	0.268	OK
Richie Palacios	2B	107	313	72	0.230	9	45	0.327	3	3	2	1	1	0	0	0.667	0.256	0.346	0.502	OK
Jorge Mateo	SS	17	52	7	0.135	1	7	0.193	3	3	1	1	1	0	1	0.333	0.174	0.214	0.272	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	29	5	5	5	4	5	0.172

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Peter Lambert	Starter	25	135.7	3.78	1.268	9.1	137	5.1	2	1	1	0	3	85	5.1	3	1
Josh Hader	Closer	41	40.4	0.67	0.594	12.0	54	1.2	2	2	2	1	1	33	1.2	1	2
Bryan Abreu	Setup Man	60	52.5	4.29	1.486	13.0	76	1.0	1	2	2	3	1	28	1.0	1	2

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Ian Seymour	Starter	42	109.8	4.18	1.184	11.5	140	5.0	2	2	2	3	6	93	5.0	6	2
Bryan Baker	Closer	58	55.6	1.46	0.881	9.9	61	1.0	2	0	0	1	1	25	1.0	1	0
Kevin Kelly	Setup Man	65	57.5	2.97	1.061	8.5	54	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Tyler Wells	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	13	16.3	1.66	0.736	9.4	17	1.1	2	2	2	0	0	35	1.1	0	2
Cam Booser	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	36	28.9	2.80	1.038	12.5	40	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	8	0.2	2	0

Game Summary

TB wins 5-4

Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox

KC 66-82 (4.27 RPG / 4.86 RA)

4 - 6

BOS 80-68 (4.42 RPG / 3.87 RA)

WINNER: BOS wins 6-4 TARGET: KC 4 - 6 BOS (BOS) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
KC	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	1	0	4	6
BOS	1	2	0	0	0	0	3	0	x	6	7

KC Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.2

Avg Allowed4.6

Run Diff-4

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2W

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs3.6

Avg Allowed4.0

Run Diff-4

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak3L

KC Season Quality

Record66-82

Win%0.446

Run Diff-87

RD/Game-0.588

BOS Season Quality

Record80-68

Win%0.541

Run Diff81

RD/Game0.547

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.8567; margin adjustment: 0.3598; applied: True

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Carter Jensen	DH	135	480	111	0.231	23	70	0.319	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.233	0.325	0.478	OK
Bobby Witt Jr.	SS	128	500	140	0.280	18	53	0.358	4	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.242	0.325	0.425	OK
Jac Caglianone	RF	130	471	132	0.280	23	70	0.328	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.293	0.331	0.478	OK
Salvador Perez	C	137	530	123	0.232	19	72	0.276	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.241	0.272	0.398	OK
Nick Loftin	3B	106	340	80	0.235	7	42	0.318	4	4	0	1	1	0	0	0.000	0.222	0.285	0.350	OK
Vinnie Pasquantino	1B	100	371	89	0.240	11	48	0.329	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.221	0.308	0.370	OK
Isaac Collins	2B	130	409	91	0.222	6	40	0.326	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.201	0.311	0.309	OK
Tyler Tolbert	LF	49	117	35	0.299	3	8	0.366	3	3	1	0	0	0	1	0.333	0.284	0.348	0.390	OK
Kyle Isbel	CF	85	263	59	0.224	6	24	0.272	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.209	0.247	0.286	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	33	6	4	4	1	11	0.182

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Roman Anthony	DH	42	162	38	0.235	4	9	0.340	4	4	1	1	4	0	0	0.250	0.230	0.325	0.378	OK
Mickey Gasper	1B	54	166	44	0.265	9	23	0.369	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.251	0.352	0.490	OK
Adley Rutschman	C	20	71	13	0.183	4	9	0.266	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.243	0.313	0.484	OK
Wilyer Abreu	RF	141	535	139	0.260	23	71	0.340	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.260	0.336	0.456	OK
Trevor Story	SS	52	210	49	0.233	3	23	0.262	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.242	0.265	0.341	OK
Nick Sogard	2B	50	184	47	0.255	4	15	0.352	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.247	0.333	0.362	OK
Caleb Durbin	3B	134	457	110	0.241	12	59	0.318	3	2	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.235	0.314	0.344	OK
Jarren Duran	LF	136	516	106	0.205	20	63	0.263	3	3	1	1	2	0	2	0.333	0.224	0.278	0.392	OK
Nate Eaton	CF	13	36	5	0.139	1	5	0.262	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.156	0.251	0.295	OK
TEAM TOTALS									33	31	7	6	6	2	6	0.226

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Randy Dobnak	Starter	12	62.5	2.59	1.344	6.2	43	6.0	4	3	3	1	5	93	6.0	5	3
Steven Cruz	Closer	53	51.0	4.41	1.353	10.4	59	0.2	2	3	3	1	1	18	0.2	1	3
Nate Pearson	Setup Man	20	20.3	0.44	0.887	8.9	20	1.1	1	0	0	0	0	20	1.1	0	0

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Ranger Suarez	Starter	25	127.4	3.53	1.248	8.6	122	5.1	5	3	3	1	7	92	5.1	7	3
Aroldis Chapman	Closer	49	48.2	1.49	1.058	12.1	65	1.2	0	0	0	0	1	21	1.2	1	0
Erik Miller	Setup Man	14	14.1	0.64	1.064	16.0	25	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	16	1.0	2	1
Garrett Whitlock	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	49	47.3	1.90	0.846	10.3	54	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

BOS wins 6-4

Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals

LAA 56-91 (4.04 RPG / 4.54 RA)

4 - 3

WAS 68-81 (5.1 RPG / 5.09 RA)

WINNER: LAA wins 4-3 TARGET: LAA 4 - 3 WAS (LAA) Confidence: 50.6% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
LAA	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1	4	5
WAS	0	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	3	6

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.9

Avg Allowed3.1

Run Diff8

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak1L

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs4.0

Avg Allowed5.5

Run Diff-15

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak1W

LAA Season Quality

Record56-91

Win%0.381

Run Diff-74

RD/Game-0.503

WAS Season Quality

Record68-81

Win%0.456

Run Diff1

RD/Game0.007

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.2749; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Zach Neto	SS	142	566	137	0.242	25	72	0.322	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.261	0.311	0.494	OK
Mike Trout	CF	128	467	114	0.244	21	52	0.376	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.256	0.347	0.455	OK
Vaughn Grissom	1B	101	367	89	0.243	10	59	0.304	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.232	0.288	0.366	OK
Moisés Ballesteros	DH	32	119	24	0.202	2	8	0.252	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.248	0.301	0.394	OK
Christian Moore	2B	24	87	17	0.195	1	9	0.253	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.231	0.275	0.336	OK
Jose Siri	LF	75	188	42	0.223	8	26	0.272	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.216	0.255	0.385	OK
Denzer Guzman	3B	65	228	51	0.224	7	25	0.266	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.218	0.256	0.353	OK
Travis d'Arnaud	C	27	65	12	0.185	1	3	0.264	3	3	1	1	3	0	1	0.333	0.195	0.249	0.309	OK
Wade Meckler	RF	77	245	72	0.294	3	25	0.364	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.294	0.363	0.390	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	32	5	4	4	2	10	0.156

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
James Wood	DH	122	466	124	0.266	30	75	0.393	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.267	0.394	0.498	OK
Abimelec Ortiz	1B	35	108	22	0.204	5	11	0.239	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.136	0.173	0.237	OK
Dylan Crews	RF	94	356	80	0.225	11	39	0.294	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.237	0.286	0.397	OK
CJ Abrams	SS	140	533	139	0.261	30	95	0.338	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.238	0.300	0.415	OK
Brady House	3B	81	287	70	0.244	10	43	0.304	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.251	0.310	0.391	OK
Daylen Lile	LF	147	556	139	0.250	20	82	0.302	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.159	0.210	0.318	OK
Keibert Ruiz	C	92	304	86	0.283	10	47	0.320	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.189	0.228	0.358	OK
Jacob Young	CF	118	391	97	0.248	10	43	0.308	4	3	0	1	1	0	1	0.000	0.225	0.274	0.335	OK
Jorbit Vivas	2B	104	278	67	0.241	3	27	0.333	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.248	0.339	0.355	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	32	6	3	3	2	7	0.188

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Walbert Ureña	Starter	26	129.0	2.79	1.233	8.7	124	6.0	2	1	1	1	6	88	6.0	6	1
Ben Joyce	Closer	12	10.4	3.46	1.058	12.1	14	1.0	3	1	1	0	0	22	1.0	0	1
Ryan Watson	Setup Man	14	9.9	2.73	1.313	13.6	15	1.1	1	1	1	1	1	24	1.1	1	1
Tayler Saucedo	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	21	12.0	4.50	1.500	15.0	20	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	8	0.2	0	0

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Andrew Alvarez	Starter	22	90.8	3.77	1.377	9.0	91	5.0	0	0	0	0	8	75	5.0	8	0
Clayton Beeter	Closer	49	43.1	4.59	1.485	9.8	47	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
Erik Tolman	Setup Man	8	8.4	3.21	1.429	9.6	9	1.1	3	2	2	0	0	26	1.1	0	2
Brad Lord	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	36	69.2	4.16	1.373	9.1	70	1.1	2	2	2	2	2	43	1.1	2	2

Game Summary

LAA wins 4-3

Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins

LAD 90-57 (4.99 RPG / 3.82 RA)

7 - 4

MIA 72-76 (4.43 RPG / 4.41 RA)

WINNER: LAD wins 7-4 TARGET: LAD 7 - 4 MIA (LAD) Confidence: 60.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
LAD	4	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	1	7	9
MIA	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	1	4	7

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs6.4

Avg Allowed4.4

Run Diff20

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak8W

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs5.9

Avg Allowed6.8

Run Diff-9

Off Trendhot

Def Trendweak

Streak4L

LAD Season Quality

Record90-57

Win%0.612

Run Diff173

RD/Game1.177

MIA Season Quality

Record72-76

Win%0.486

Run Diff3

RD/Game0.020

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -1.1782; margin adjustment: -0.4948; applied: True

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Tommy Edman	CF	66	240	62	0.258	6	32	0.338	5	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.259	0.320	0.392	OK
Freddie Freeman	1B	139	521	155	0.298	16	64	0.376	5	4	1	1	2	1	1	0.250	0.237	0.321	0.363	OK
Mookie Betts	SS	107	422	105	0.249	19	60	0.309	5	4	2	1	3	1	1	0.500	0.259	0.320	0.469	OK
Max Muncy	3B	133	436	111	0.255	27	70	0.352	5	4	0	1	0	1	2	0.000	0.323	0.404	0.544	OK
Will Smith	C	59	200	48	0.240	7	28	0.329	5	4	1	1	0	1	0	0.250	0.243	0.326	0.418	OK
Teoscar Hernández	LF	109	386	103	0.267	13	57	0.332	5	5	1	1	0	0	3	0.200	0.319	0.382	0.493	OK
Kyle Tucker	RF	135	483	111	0.230	14	65	0.321	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.268	0.347	0.532	OK
Josue De Paula	DH	1	3	0	0.000	0	0	0.250	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.052	0.262	0.084
Alex Freeland	2B	80	215	48	0.223	3	20	0.307	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.204	0.301	0.282	OK
TEAM TOTALS									42	36	9	7	7	5	9	0.250

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Kyle Stowers	DH	110	404	99	0.245	19	60	0.335	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.227	0.313	0.436	OK
Heriberto Hernández	LF	114	391	88	0.225	24	63	0.306	4	3	1	1	3	1	2	0.333	0.199	0.265	0.395	OK
Griffin Conine	1B	76	235	60	0.255	15	36	0.347	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.244	0.318	0.433	OK
Otto Lopez	SS	144	576	177	0.307	10	66	0.346	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.344	0.376	0.457	OK
Jakob Marsee	CF	138	474	105	0.222	9	36	0.337	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.246	0.320	0.340	OK
Javier Sanoja	2B	119	405	119	0.294	8	57	0.328	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.299	0.333	0.472	OK
Owen Caissie	RF	103	291	64	0.220	14	57	0.282	4	4	2	1	1	0	1	0.500	0.145	0.212	0.296	OK
Graham Pauley	3B	47	129	27	0.209	3	23	0.259	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.237	0.285	0.434	OK
Joe Mack	C	91	274	65	0.237	13	45	0.287	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.173	0.214	0.307	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	34	7	4	4	1	9	0.206

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tyler Glasnow	Starter	10	57.2	3.15	0.892	11.0	70	6.0	2	0	0	1	6	92	6.0	6	0
Tanner Scott	Closer	63	53.2	2.88	1.071	12.2	72	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Edgardo Henriquez	Setup Man	60	51.4	2.98	1.128	12.3	70	1.0	3	3	3	0	2	22	1.0	2	3
Brock Stewart	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	23	20.1	2.69	1.144	9.0	20	1.0	2	1	1	0	1	19	1.0	1	1

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tyler Phillips	Starter	34	111.6	3.63	1.371	7.5	93	5.0	4	4	4	5	2	107	5.0	2	3
Calvin Faucher	Closer	62	53.4	4.21	1.536	11.3	67	1.0	0	2	2	0	2	17	1.0	2	2
Tyler Zuber	Setup Man	39	28.6	5.98	1.713	12.0	38	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	16	1.0	2	0
Michael Petersen	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	58	51.8	3.65	1.255	11.8	68	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	19	1.0	1	0
Victor Vodnik	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	14	13.6	6.62	1.544	7.9	12	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	19	1.0	2	1

Game Summary

LAD wins 7-4

New York Mets @ New York Yankees

NYM 68-79 (4.29 RPG / 4.58 RA)

5 - 7

NYY 85-62 (4.58 RPG / 3.67 RA)

WINNER: NYY wins 7-5 TARGET: NYM 5 - 7 NYY (NYY) Confidence: 53.9% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	R	H
NYM	0	0	2	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	5	8
NYY	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	2	0	3	7	11

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs6.9

Avg Allowed5.8

Run Diff11

Off Trendhot

Def Trendweak

Streak1L

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs5.1

Avg Allowed3.5

Run Diff16

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak4W

NYM Season Quality

Record68-79

Win%0.463

Run Diff-42

RD/Game-0.286

NYY Season Quality

Record85-62

Win%0.578

Run Diff133

RD/Game0.905

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.8824; margin adjustment: 0.3706; applied: True

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Francisco Lindor	SS	88	352	81	0.230	18	42	0.310	5	5	2	1	2	0	0	0.400	0.210	0.269	0.407	OK
Juan Soto	DH	94	337	93	0.276	24	59	0.393	5	5	1	1	0	0	1	0.200	0.260	0.374	0.489	OK
Bo Bichette	3B	141	562	150	0.267	16	73	0.316	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.250	0.305	0.379	OK
Carson Benge	RF	137	524	141	0.269	16	54	0.334	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.247	0.319	0.364	OK
Jared Young	1B	91	287	76	0.265	7	34	0.327	5	4	1	1	2	0	2	0.250	0.188	0.249	0.296	OK
Marcus Semien	2B	124	437	98	0.224	14	46	0.291	5	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.234	0.299	0.331	OK
A.J. Ewing	CF	104	381	98	0.257	9	37	0.326	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.286	0.346	0.429	OK
Brett Baty	LF	121	380	88	0.232	10	50	0.296	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.247	0.311	0.443	OK
Francisco Alvarez	C	98	327	73	0.223	14	35	0.309	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.192	0.263	0.369	OK
TEAM TOTALS									42	38	8	5	5	1	3	0.211

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Paul Goldschmidt	1B	91	325	82	0.252	18	49	0.307	6	5	2	1	1	1	1	0.400	0.203	0.256	0.360	OK
Aaron Judge	DH	62	224	56	0.250	17	38	0.374	6	5	1	1	1	1	0	0.200	0.253	0.366	0.493	OK
Cody Bellinger	LF	117	437	118	0.270	14	67	0.347	5	5	1	1	1	0	2	0.200	0.308	0.370	0.540	OK
Heliot Ramos	RF	25	69	10	0.145	2	7	0.289	5	5	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.233	0.294	0.412	OK
Amed Rosario	3B	76	206	50	0.243	10	31	0.279	5	5	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.191	0.232	0.290	OK
Spencer Jones	CF	70	209	54	0.258	9	34	0.333	5	4	3	1	2	1	0	0.750	0.319	0.390	0.502	OK
George Lombard Jr.	SS	29	100	23	0.230	3	11	0.288	5	5	2	1	0	0	1	0.400	0.212	0.268	0.352	OK
Anthony Volpe	2B	55	176	44	0.250	2	22	0.333	5	4	2	1	2	1	1	0.500	0.252	0.324	0.363	OK
Austin Wells	C	109	307	55	0.179	10	28	0.278	5	3	0	1	0	2	2	0.000	0.135	0.260	0.213	OK
TEAM TOTALS									47	41	11	7	7	6	10	0.268

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Zac Thornton	Starter	12	65.4	3.58	1.208	7.0	51	5.1	2	0	0	6	7	109	5.1	7	0
Kodai Senga	Closer	27	55.2	7.50	1.685	11.1	68	2.1	1	1	1	0	1	38	0.1	1	2
Daniel Duarte	Setup Man	23	25.4	2.48	0.906	9.9	28	1.1	1	1	1	0	1	20	1.1	1	2
Nathan Lavender	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	15	10.6	2.55	1.321	14.4	17	1.0	7	5	5	0	1	34	1.0	1	2

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Gerrit Cole	Starter	19	108.9	3.47	1.111	9.3	113	6.0	6	3	3	1	3	110	6.0	3	3
David Bednar	Closer	59	58.9	2.90	1.104	10.8	71	1.1	1	1	1	0	0	20	1.1	0	1
Brent Headrick	Setup Man	75	59.1	2.44	1.489	13.9	91	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	16	1.0	0	1
Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	57	70.8	1.91	1.201	8.4	66	1.2	0	0	0	0	0	21	0.2	0	0

Game Summary

NYY wins 7-5

Philadelphia Phillies @ Atlanta Braves

PHI 82-66 (4.49 RPG / 4.24 RA)

4 - 3

ATL 87-62 (4.56 RPG / 3.85 RA)

WINNER: PHI wins 4-3 TARGET: PHI 4 - 3 ATL (PHI) Confidence: 50.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PHI	1	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	10
ATL	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	0	3	6

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.0

Avg Allowed3.5

Run Diff5

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2L

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs3.8

Avg Allowed4.0

Run Diff-2

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2W

PHI Season Quality

Record82-66

Win%0.554

Run Diff36

RD/Game0.243

ATL Season Quality

Record87-61

Win%0.588

Run Diff111

RD/Game0.750

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.3651; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Kyle Schwarber	DH	140	531	126	0.237	43	91	0.349	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	0.250	0.198	0.285	0.432	OK
Trea Turner	SS	140	586	141	0.241	19	56	0.290	5	5	1	1	1	0	0	0.200	0.214	0.252	0.389	OK
Bryce Harper	RF	146	517	140	0.271	27	82	0.388	5	4	2	1	0	1	1	0.500	0.263	0.377	0.453	OK
Luis Arraez	2B	34	136	41	0.301	2	15	0.322	5	5	2	1	3	0	0	0.400	0.311	0.342	0.402	OK
Alec Bohm	1B	138	516	126	0.244	15	79	0.308	4	3	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.230	0.292	0.381	OK
Bryson Stott	3B	140	483	120	0.248	10	61	0.326	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.218	0.297	0.341	OK
Brandon Marsh	LF	139	488	130	0.266	17	58	0.312	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.146	0.191	0.244	OK
J.T. Realmuto	C	108	370	79	0.214	10	46	0.288	4	4	3	1	0	0	1	0.750	0.180	0.240	0.286	OK
Justin Crawford	CF	131	385	100	0.260	2	35	0.308	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.181	0.223	0.253	OK
TEAM TOTALS									40	37	10	4	4	2	7	0.270

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ronald Acuña Jr.	DH	94	358	90	0.251	16	45	0.344	4	3	1	1	2	1	1	0.333	0.249	0.327	0.440	OK
Drake Baldwin	C	124	486	135	0.278	23	72	0.355	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.260	0.314	0.406	OK
Ozzie Albies	2B	147	557	139	0.250	21	68	0.305	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.197	0.247	0.334	OK
Matt Olson	1B	147	565	140	0.248	37	80	0.322	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.235	0.309	0.480	OK
Mauricio Dubón	LF	139	515	137	0.266	11	67	0.310	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.249	0.284	0.356	OK
Michael Harris II	CF	141	535	153	0.286	24	80	0.311	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.203	0.230	0.349	OK
Austin Riley	3B	145	513	115	0.224	17	68	0.296	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.219	0.275	0.423	OK
Brewer Hicklen	RF	8	24	8	0.333	0	3	0.429	3	3	2	1	0	0	0	0.667	0.135	0.248	0.311	OK
Ha-Seong Kim	SS	36	104	14	0.135	0	9	0.217	3	3	1	0	0	0	2	0.333	0.145	0.212	0.175	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	33	6	3	3	1	8	0.182

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tim Mayza	Starter	54	56.2	3.52	1.157	9.4	59	5.0	2	1	1	1	6	73	5.0	6	1
Jhoan Duran	Closer	55	53.4	1.52	0.993	12.6	75	1.1	1	1	1	0	1	20	1.1	1	1
Jonathan Bowlan	Setup Man	57	50.8	3.54	1.102	12.2	69	1.2	3	1	1	0	1	26	1.2	1	1
Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	59	47.9	4.70	1.482	10.7	57	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Tyler Mahle	Starter	6	35.4	1.27	0.960	8.9	35	5.2	9	3	3	2	3	118	5.2	3	3
Raisel Iglesias	Closer	54	52.9	2.89	1.210	9.7	57	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	16	1.0	1	1
Dylan Lee	Setup Man	66	55.4	2.60	0.957	12.2	75	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	53	61.3	2.50	1.175	12.5	85	1.1	0	0	0	0	2	22	1.1	2	0

Game Summary

PHI wins 4-3

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs

PIT 74-74 (4.8 RPG / 4.63 RA)

4 - 5

CHC 82-66 (5.35 RPG / 4.42 RA)

WINNER: CHC wins 5-4 TARGET: PIT 4 - 5 CHC (CHC) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PIT	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	0	4	8
CHC	0	0	0	3	0	0	1	0	1	5	9

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs4.2

Avg Allowed4.2

Run Diff0

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs5.0

Avg Allowed5.3

Run Diff-3

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak1W

PIT Season Quality

Record74-74

Win%0.500

Run Diff26

RD/Game0.176

CHC Season Quality

Record82-66

Win%0.554

Run Diff138

RD/Game0.932

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.4382; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Konnor Griffin	SS	65	252	67	0.266	5	27	0.322	5	5	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.253	0.300	0.378	OK
Brandon Lowe	2B	134	524	134	0.256	29	83	0.325	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	0.250	0.265	0.327	0.435	OK
Bryan Reynolds	LF	145	536	143	0.267	17	70	0.372	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.258	0.345	0.479	OK
Ryan O'Hearn	DH	92	351	97	0.276	17	68	0.337	4	4	2	1	0	0	2	0.500	0.262	0.318	0.438	OK
Oneil Cruz	CF	84	325	90	0.277	18	63	0.365	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.314	0.390	0.504	OK
Esmerlyn Valdez	RF	69	229	52	0.227	14	39	0.343	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.217	0.331	0.464	OK
Spencer Horwitz	1B	104	358	88	0.246	10	44	0.344	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.239	0.320	0.320	OK
Rafael Flores Jr.	C	33	111	27	0.243	8	19	0.306	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.274	0.324	0.472	OK
Nick Gonzales	3B	133	504	152	0.302	4	57	0.364	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	0.667	0.292	0.341	0.377	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	34	8	4	4	3	9	0.235

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Pete Crow-Armstrong	CF	146	562	159	0.283	41	98	0.378	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.270	0.343	0.517	OK
Seiya Suzuki	RF	129	491	134	0.273	24	81	0.372	4	3	2	1	1	0	0	0.667	0.250	0.339	0.406	OK
Michael Busch	1B	144	546	130	0.238	17	73	0.345	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.230	0.326	0.370	OK
Alex Bregman	3B	144	570	151	0.265	25	84	0.353	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.302	0.375	0.545	OK
Ian Happ	LF	138	498	110	0.221	23	65	0.326	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.226	0.336	0.358	OK
Nico Hoerner	SS	143	571	153	0.268	8	66	0.317	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.277	0.317	0.363	OK
Pedro Ramirez	2B	65	197	52	0.264	5	28	0.319	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.233	0.285	0.393	OK
Michael Conforto	DH	96	230	56	0.243	14	40	0.330	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.288	0.369	0.533	OK
Carson Kelly	C	104	350	92	0.263	10	55	0.340	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.277	0.337	0.416	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	34	9	5	5	1	4	0.265

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Paul Skenes	Starter	29	152.2	3.90	1.170	10.7	181	5.1	5	3	3	1	1	91	5.1	1	3
Mason Montgomery	Closer	62	54.2	2.82	1.144	15.8	95	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	19	1.0	2	1
Luke Weaver	Setup Man	12	10.4	6.06	1.635	12.1	14	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	61	56.2	2.88	1.103	11.4	71	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	14	0.2	0	1

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Clay Holmes	Starter	6	32.4	3.61	1.173	5.6	20	5.2	5	2	2	3	5	110	5.2	5	2
Jacob Webb	Closer	63	55.6	3.72	1.385	10.8	67	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	20	1.0	1	0
Trent Thornton	Setup Man	47	41.8	3.66	1.364	6.7	31	1.0	1	0	0	0	2	16	1.0	2	0
Ryan Zeferjahn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	14	10.2	7.94	1.961	11.5	13	1.0	2	2	2	0	0	19	1.0	0	2
Daniel Palencia	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	26	21.9	4.52	1.416	10.3	25	0.1	0	0	0	0	1	4	0.1	1	0

Game Summary

CHC wins 5-4

San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants

SD 79-68 (4.26 RPG / 4.13 RA)

5 - 4

SF 63-86 (4.22 RPG / 4.68 RA)

WINNER: SD wins 5-4 TARGET: SD 5 - 4 SF (SD) Confidence: 50.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SD	0	2	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	5	7
SF	3	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	4	7

SD Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs4.3

Avg Allowed3.4

Run Diff9

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak5W

SF Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs5.5

Avg Allowed5.9

Run Diff-4

Off Trendhot

Def Trendweak

Streak1L

SD Season Quality

Record79-68

Win%0.537

Run Diff19

RD/Game0.129

SF Season Quality

Record62-86

Win%0.419

Run Diff-74

RD/Game-0.500

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.6323; margin adjustment: -0.2656; applied: True

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Fernando Tatis Jr.	2B	143	570	162	0.284	20	71	0.350	5	4	1	0	0	1	1	0.250	0.300	0.361	0.486	OK
Xander Bogaerts	SS	140	477	104	0.218	11	54	0.319	5	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.218	0.313	0.293	OK
Manny Machado	3B	143	531	118	0.222	26	80	0.311	5	5	1	1	1	0	1	0.200	0.244	0.327	0.421	OK
Luis Campusano	DH	61	180	51	0.283	7	28	0.383	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.290	0.374	0.478	OK
Jackson Merrill	CF	143	557	138	0.248	24	79	0.298	4	4	1	0	0	0	3	0.250	0.334	0.364	0.548	OK
Austin Hays	RF	16	40	10	0.250	1	3	0.250	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.254	0.266	0.354	OK
Jake Cronenworth	1B	93	322	67	0.208	5	27	0.294	4	2	1	1	0	2	0	0.500	0.192	0.266	0.284	OK
Samad Taylor	LF	34	113	35	0.310	1	11	0.386	4	3	1	1	1	0	0	0.333	0.275	0.338	0.358	OK
Freddy Fermin	C	73	218	43	0.197	4	19	0.269	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.195	0.264	0.306	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	34	7	5	5	3	8	0.206

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Drew Gilbert	CF	110	307	73	0.238	8	36	0.307	5	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.149	0.207	0.267	OK
Rafael Devers	DH	145	543	140	0.258	35	95	0.341	5	5	1	1	1	0	2	0.200	0.262	0.352	0.575	OK
Bryce Eldridge	1B	101	362	98	0.271	16	53	0.361	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.277	0.367	0.472	OK
Turner Hill	LF	21	67	17	0.254	0	12	0.346	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.234	0.318	0.327	OK
Jung Hoo Lee	RF	131	499	139	0.279	8	52	0.320	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.221	0.256	0.315	OK
Osleivis Basabe	2B	34	114	23	0.202	5	12	0.258	4	3	1	0	0	1	0	0.333	0.191	0.240	0.342	OK
Drew Cavanaugh	C	46	121	30	0.248	0	9	0.326	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.147	0.223	0.190	OK
Shay Whitcomb	3B	14	50	9	0.180	1	5	0.180	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.181	0.188	0.317	OK
Christian Koss	SS	51	152	35	0.230	4	9	0.278	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.232	0.286	0.359	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	34	7	4	4	3	11	0.206

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Michael King	Starter	29	165.2	3.05	1.186	7.8	144	6.0	4	3	3	2	9	108	6.0	9	3
Mason Miller	Closer	59	59.3	1.21	0.911	17.5	115	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	17	1.0	1	0
Adrian Morejon	Setup Man	69	70.8	3.18	1.201	12.5	98	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	24	1.0	0	1
Bradgley Rodriguez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	61	57.7	2.03	1.127	11.5	74	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Cesar Perdomo	Starter	2	10.0	0.90	0.800	7.2	8	5.0	5	2	2	1	5	94	5.0	5	2
Dylan Smith	Closer	35	29.6	3.65	1.588	12.5	41	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	21	1.0	2	1
Trent Harris	Setup Man	14	15.3	2.94	1.307	12.4	21	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	1.0	0	0
Carson Seymour	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	17	21.2	6.37	1.887	7.6	18	1.0	1	2	2	1	1	32	1.0	1	2
Jason Foley	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	18	17.0	4.76	1.765	6.4	12	0.2	0	0	0	0	0	8	0.2	0	0
Reiver Sanmartin	Middle Reliever	21	16.0	5.62	1.625	9.0	16	0.1	0	0	0	0	0	4	0.1	0	0

Game Summary

SD wins 5-4

Seattle Mariners @ Oakland Athletics

SEA 69-79 (3.96 RPG / 4.47 RA)

6 - 5

OAK 60-88 (4.37 RPG / 5.63 RA)

WINNER: SEA wins 6-5 TARGET: SEA 6 - 5 OAK (SEA) Confidence: 52.5% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
SEA	1	1	0	1	0	0	1	0	2	6	9
OAK	0	0	0	1	0	1	1	0	2	5	12

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.500

Avg Runs4.8

Avg Allowed5.0

Run Diff-2

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs5.0

Avg Allowed3.8

Run Diff12

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2W

SEA Season Quality

Record69-79

Win%0.466

Run Diff-75

RD/Game-0.507

OAK Season Quality

Record60-88

Win%0.405

Run Diff-186

RD/Game-1.257

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.4152; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Randy Arozarena	LF	140	519	141	0.272	22	67	0.371	5	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.253	0.321	0.402	OK
Dominic Canzone	DH	130	423	108	0.255	21	66	0.323	5	5	1	1	2	0	2	0.200	0.250	0.294	0.412	OK
Julio Rodríguez	CF	136	543	130	0.239	21	65	0.298	5	5	1	0	0	0	1	0.200	0.225	0.268	0.357	OK
Cal Raleigh	C	112	402	73	0.182	21	60	0.294	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.194	0.290	0.344	OK
Josh Naylor	1B	138	540	144	0.267	10	49	0.323	4	4	2	1	1	0	2	0.500	0.267	0.307	0.334	OK
J.P. Crawford	3B	102	357	79	0.221	10	33	0.342	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.227	0.338	0.330	OK
Taylor Ward	RF	25	79	9	0.114	0	5	0.222	4	3	2	1	2	1	1	0.667	0.210	0.339	0.289	OK
Cole Young	SS	146	533	132	0.248	16	60	0.311	4	4	2	1	0	0	2	0.500	0.255	0.303	0.396	OK
Michael Arroyo	2B	2	4	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	4	0	1	1	0	1	0.000	0.056	0.070	0.092
TEAM TOTALS									39	36	9	6	6	2	14	0.250

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Henry Bolte	CF	101	362	100	0.276	10	33	0.353	5	4	1	1	1	1	0	0.250	0.283	0.350	0.440	OK
Jeff McNeil	2B	128	430	116	0.270	8	54	0.316	5	5	3	1	1	0	0	0.600	0.270	0.306	0.366	OK
Zack Gelof	3B	93	343	86	0.251	17	44	0.315	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.213	0.261	0.383	OK
Lawrence Butler	RF	133	419	96	0.229	14	54	0.314	5	4	2	0	0	1	0	0.500	0.230	0.293	0.398	OK
Carlos Cortes	LF	109	312	81	0.260	9	40	0.326	5	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.262	0.318	0.404	OK
Tommy White	1B	42	160	40	0.250	2	8	0.267	5	5	2	1	1	0	1	0.400	0.241	0.259	0.313	OK
Max Muncy	DH	78	250	58	0.232	9	30	0.299	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.248	0.303	0.409	OK
Alika Williams	SS	66	186	48	0.258	4	15	0.289	4	4	2	0	0	0	1	0.500	0.246	0.273	0.394	OK
Jonah Heim	C	83	287	59	0.206	12	34	0.260	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.186	0.236	0.316	OK
TEAM TOTALS									42	39	12	5	5	2	5	0.308

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Bryan Woo	Starter	27	155.4	4.05	1.062	9.2	158	5.2	5	2	2	0	5	94	5.2	5	2
Andrés Muñoz	Closer	56	51.3	3.86	1.189	14.9	85	1.0	2	1	1	0	0	19	1.0	0	1
José A. Ferrer	Setup Man	66	51.6	4.36	1.647	8.4	48	1.1	2	0	0	0	0	23	1.1	0	0
Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	67	52.3	4.65	1.740	11.0	64	1.0	3	2	2	2	0	30	1.0	0	2

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Gage Jump	Starter	19	93.4	5.30	1.542	10.2	106	4.1	5	4	4	1	7	86	4.1	7	4
Elvis Alvarado	Closer	49	42.7	4.64	1.429	12.2	58	1.0	0	0	0	0	3	13	1.0	3	0
Hogan Harris	Setup Man	68	53.7	4.02	1.732	13.9	83	1.0	1	1	1	0	1	16	1.0	1	1
Luis Medina	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	51	62.2	3.33	1.431	12.4	86	1.1	1	0	0	0	2	32	1.1	2	0
Scott Blewett	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	18	25.0	2.88	1.360	8.6	24	1.1	2	1	1	1	1	31	1.1	1	1

Game Summary

SEA wins 6-5

Texas Rangers @ Arizona Diamondbacks

TEX 72-76 (4.13 RPG / 4.46 RA)

4 - 5

ARI 79-69 (4.44 RPG / 4.39 RA)

WINNER: ARI wins 5-4 TARGET: TEX 4 - 5 ARI (ARI) Confidence: 55.9% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TEX	0	0	0	0	0	4	0	0	0	4	7
ARI	1	0	1	3	0	0	0	0	x	5	7

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.9

Avg Allowed5.4

Run Diff-5

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak3L

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs3.2

Avg Allowed3.0

Run Diff2

Off Trendcold

Def Trendstrong

Streak1W

TEX Season Quality

Record72-76

Win%0.486

Run Diff-49

RD/Game-0.331

ARI Season Quality

Record79-69

Win%0.534

Run Diff7

RD/Game0.047

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.3677; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Joc Pederson	DH	132	372	88	0.237	26	53	0.325	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.252	0.323	0.539	OK
Corey Seager	SS	87	325	73	0.225	17	40	0.318	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.216	0.292	0.454	OK
Ezequiel Duran	3B	137	488	131	0.268	17	78	0.330	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.248	0.306	0.404	OK
Brandon Nimmo	RF	142	542	141	0.260	14	58	0.326	4	3	1	1	0	0	0	0.333	0.221	0.280	0.336	OK
Wyatt Langford	LF	96	365	88	0.241	16	38	0.329	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.193	0.290	0.363	OK
Jake Burger	1B	140	506	119	0.235	26	83	0.305	4	3	2	1	2	1	0	0.667	0.211	0.303	0.460	OK
Evan Carter	CF	126	362	70	0.193	9	35	0.289	4	4	1	1	2	0	0	0.250	0.192	0.276	0.309	OK
Nicky Lopez	2B	78	210	59	0.281	1	23	0.324	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.306	0.336	0.363	OK
Elias Díaz	C	58	174	40	0.230	5	25	0.255	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.144	0.172	0.286	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	34	7	4	4	1	6	0.206

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Geraldo Perdomo	SS	142	508	126	0.248	9	49	0.355	5	4	1	1	0	1	2	0.250	0.223	0.325	0.307	OK
Corbin Carroll	RF	141	525	127	0.242	20	63	0.336	4	3	1	1	2	1	1	0.333	0.224	0.299	0.468	OK
Gabriel Moreno	C	117	423	127	0.300	12	72	0.378	4	4	2	1	3	0	1	0.500	0.282	0.344	0.410	OK
Ketel Marte	DH	126	504	127	0.252	22	73	0.318	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.258	0.325	0.441	OK
Nolan Arenado	3B	137	477	114	0.239	24	70	0.317	4	3	1	1	0	1	0	0.333	0.284	0.358	0.576	OK
Ildemaro Vargas	2B	122	430	110	0.256	9	67	0.295	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.264	0.306	0.380	OK
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.	LF	51	186	39	0.210	2	22	0.254	4	2	0	0	0	2	1	0.000	0.220	0.255	0.317	OK
Tim Tawa	1B	82	264	65	0.246	10	37	0.299	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.193	0.250	0.345	OK
Jordan Lawlar	CF	30	93	24	0.258	4	10	0.317	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.249	0.270	0.370	OK
TEAM TOTALS									37	31	7	5	5	6	9	0.226

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Kumar Rocker	Starter	27	130.7	4.75	1.484	8.7	127	4.2	7	5	5	4	4	108	4.2	4	5
Jacob Latz	Closer	50	59.6	1.51	0.755	10.6	70	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Jakob Junis	Setup Man	47	46.6	2.90	1.266	6.8	35	1.0	0	0	0	2	1	21	1.0	1	0
Tyler Alexander	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	66	55.8	3.71	1.470	9.0	56	1.1	0	0	0	0	3	26	1.1	3	0

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Brandon Pfaadt	Starter	26	112.9	3.67	1.196	6.1	77	6.1	6	4	4	1	4	112	6.1	4	4
Brandyn Garcia	Closer	36	26.8	2.01	0.784	12.1	36	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Juan Morillo	Setup Man	48	40.4	2.90	1.114	12.3	55	1.0	1	0	0	0	1	16	1.0	1	0
Jonathan Loáisiga	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	48	40.8	3.09	1.225	7.1	32	0.2	0	0	0	0	1	8	0.2	1	0

Game Summary

ARI wins 5-4

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

All Games Overview

Baltimore Orioles @ Toronto Blue Jays

BAL Recent Form

TOR Recent Form

BAL Season Quality

TOR Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Chicago White Sox @ St. Louis Cardinals

CHW Recent Form

STL Recent Form

CHW Season Quality

STL Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Cincinnati Reds @ Milwaukee Brewers

CIN Recent Form

MIL Recent Form

CIN Season Quality

MIL Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Cleveland Guardians @ Minnesota Twins

CLE Recent Form

MIN Recent Form

CLE Season Quality

MIN Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Colorado Rockies @ Detroit Tigers

COL Recent Form

DET Recent Form

COL Season Quality

DET Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Houston Astros @ Tampa Bay Rays

HOU Recent Form

TB Recent Form

HOU Season Quality

TB Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Kansas City Royals @ Boston Red Sox

KC Recent Form

BOS Recent Form

KC Season Quality

BOS Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Los Angeles Angels @ Washington Nationals