| Matchup | Target Score | Sim Score | Target Winner | Sim Winner | Winner | Confidence | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL @ TOR | 4 - 5 | 4 - 5 | TOR | TOR | TOR wins 5-4 | 50% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| CHW @ STL | 4 - 6 | 4 - 6 | STL | STL | STL wins 6-4 | 60% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| CIN @ MIL | 6 - 8 | 6 - 8 | MIL | MIL | MIL wins 8-6 | 54% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| CLE @ MIN | 4 - 5 | 4 - 5 | MIN | MIN | MIN wins 5-4 | 51% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| COL @ DET | 4 - 5 | 4 - 5 | DET | DET | DET wins 5-4 | 54% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| HOU @ TB | 3 - 5 | 3 - 5 | TB | TB | TB wins 5-3 | 50% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| KC @ BOS | 4 - 6 | 4 - 6 | BOS | BOS | BOS wins 6-4 | 65% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| LAA @ WAS | 4 - 5 | 4 - 5 | WAS | WAS | WAS wins 5-4 | 58% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| LAD @ MIA | 6 - 4 | 6 - 4 | LAD | LAD | LAD wins 6-4 | 58% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| NYM @ NYY | 4 - 6 | 4 - 6 | NYY | NYY | NYY wins 6-4 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| PHI @ ATL | 3 - 4 | 3 - 4 | ATL | ATL | ATL wins 4-3 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| PIT @ CHC | 4 - 5 | 4 - 5 | CHC | CHC | CHC wins 5-4 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| SD @ SF | 5 - 4 | 5 - 4 | SD | SD | SD wins 5-4 | 50% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| SEA @ OAK | 7 - 6 | 7 - 6 | SEA | SEA | SEA wins 7-6 | 51% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| TEX @ ARI | 6 - 4 | 6 - 4 | TEX | TEX | TEX wins 6-4 | 57% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 |
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | x | 5 | 9 |
Quality edge: 0.1968; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Dylan Beavers | LF | 86 | 268 | 66 | 0.246 | 6 | 35 | 0.316 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.226 | 0.279 | 0.350 | OK |
| Pete Alonso | 1B | 144 | 537 | 145 | 0.270 | 34 | 97 | 0.364 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.260 | 0.359 | 0.468 | OK |
| Jackson Holliday | 2B | 89 | 293 | 68 | 0.232 | 7 | 30 | 0.300 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.226 | 0.281 | 0.334 | OK |
| Coby Mayo | DH | 111 | 354 | 80 | 0.226 | 22 | 59 | 0.291 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.232 | 0.292 | 0.507 | OK |
| Gunnar Henderson | SS | 141 | 563 | 123 | 0.218 | 21 | 56 | 0.303 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.216 | 0.293 | 0.369 | OK |
| Samuel Basallo | C | 100 | 334 | 76 | 0.228 | 17 | 51 | 0.293 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.201 | 0.255 | 0.335 | OK |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | 3B | 43 | 145 | 35 | 0.241 | 7 | 30 | 0.293 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.218 | 0.263 | 0.414 | OK |
| Heston Kjerstad | RF | 4 | 7 | 1 | 0.143 | 0 | 0 | 0.143 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.163 | 0.175 | 0.197 | OK |
| Colton Cowser | CF | 113 | 298 | 64 | 0.215 | 12 | 34 | 0.301 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.138 | 0.230 | 0.254 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 33 | 32 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Brett Bateman | CF | 28 | 113 | 37 | 0.327 | 0 | 7 | 0.394 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.303 | 0.356 | 0.370 | OK |
| George Springer | DH | 110 | 414 | 102 | 0.246 | 14 | 47 | 0.321 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.164 | 0.238 | 0.297 | OK |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 1B | 131 | 497 | 129 | 0.260 | 8 | 54 | 0.326 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.246 | 0.306 | 0.333 | OK |
| Alejandro Kirk | C | 66 | 239 | 66 | 0.276 | 9 | 36 | 0.341 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.279 | 0.332 | 0.418 | OK |
| Nathan Lukes | RF | 108 | 365 | 100 | 0.274 | 10 | 36 | 0.322 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.242 | 0.277 | 0.319 | OK |
| Kazuma Okamoto | 3B | 140 | 517 | 120 | 0.232 | 30 | 83 | 0.306 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.254 | 0.317 | 0.487 | OK |
| Josh Smith | LF | 19 | 41 | 11 | 0.268 | 5 | 7 | 0.367 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 0.243 | 0.332 | 0.441 | OK |
| Andrés Giménez | SS | 129 | 429 | 105 | 0.245 | 9 | 53 | 0.292 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.246 | 0.280 | 0.378 | OK |
| Ernie Clement | 2B | 143 | 542 | 148 | 0.273 | 9 | 46 | 0.300 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.236 | 0.267 | 0.315 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 33 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 5 | 0.273 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Chris Bassitt | Starter | 17 | 81.6 | 5.18 | 1.654 | 6.7 | 61 | 5.0 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 91 | 5.0 | 2 | 4 |
| Andrew Kittredge | Closer | 51 | 40.0 | 4.27 | 1.600 | 8.3 | 37 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Rico Garcia | Setup Man | 68 | 53.7 | 2.85 | 1.043 | 10.9 | 65 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 2.0 | 3 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Max Scherzer | Starter | 14 | 60.8 | 6.22 | 1.398 | 7.1 | 48 | 5.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 80 | 5.0 | 4 | 3 |
| Louis Varland | Closer | 66 | 67.2 | 1.34 | 1.086 | 11.9 | 89 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 1.2 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyler Rogers | Setup Man | 68 | 61.0 | 1.92 | 1.262 | 5.3 | 36 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Spencer Miles | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 45 | 80.9 | 3.00 | 1.137 | 9.0 | 81 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 1.1 | 3 | 0 |
TOR wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHW | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| STL | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | x | 6 | 10 |
Quality edge: -0.145; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Chase Meidroth | 2B | 139 | 516 | 138 | 0.267 | 12 | 51 | 0.342 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.233 | 0.312 | 0.324 | OK |
| Randal Grichuk | LF | 87 | 188 | 56 | 0.298 | 12 | 34 | 0.330 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.310 | 0.348 | 0.587 | OK |
| Miguel Vargas | 1B | 143 | 533 | 132 | 0.248 | 30 | 79 | 0.358 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.240 | 0.340 | 0.437 | OK |
| Colson Montgomery | 3B | 138 | 521 | 109 | 0.209 | 31 | 83 | 0.289 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.201 | 0.267 | 0.431 | OK |
| Edgar Quero | DH | 58 | 178 | 35 | 0.197 | 3 | 17 | 0.260 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.214 | 0.283 | 0.290 | OK |
| Brenton Doyle | CF | 21 | 54 | 11 | 0.204 | 2 | 7 | 0.204 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.102 | 0.153 | 0.172 | OK |
| Braden Montgomery | RF | 77 | 277 | 61 | 0.220 | 6 | 37 | 0.315 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.211 | 0.310 | 0.341 | OK |
| Jake Rogers | C | 11 | 34 | 4 | 0.118 | 1 | 3 | 0.211 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.153 | 0.250 | 0.263 | OK |
| Luisangel Acuña | SS | 73 | 194 | 46 | 0.237 | 1 | 12 | 0.272 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.153 | 0.188 | 0.189 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 34 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| José Fermín | 3B | 102 | 291 | 72 | 0.247 | 6 | 38 | 0.307 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.200 | 0.251 | 0.305 | 0.359 | OK |
| Iván Herrera | DH | 143 | 545 | 135 | 0.248 | 15 | 62 | 0.355 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.271 | 0.334 | 0.394 | OK |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 140 | 545 | 153 | 0.281 | 26 | 95 | 0.338 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.154 | 0.218 | 0.291 | OK |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 142 | 543 | 153 | 0.282 | 22 | 101 | 0.348 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.251 | 0.327 | 0.421 | OK |
| Joshua Baez | LF | 24 | 80 | 20 | 0.250 | 7 | 16 | 0.299 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.261 | 0.297 | 0.562 | OK |
| Leonardo Bernal | C | 9 | 36 | 10 | 0.278 | 2 | 10 | 0.350 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.237 | 0.297 | 0.399 | OK |
| Thomas Saggese | 2B | 37 | 112 | 30 | 0.268 | 4 | 12 | 0.328 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.288 | 0.352 | 0.464 | OK |
| Masyn Winn | SS | 118 | 428 | 101 | 0.236 | 5 | 51 | 0.308 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.212 | 0.282 | 0.335 | OK |
| Nathan Church | CF | 114 | 381 | 94 | 0.247 | 10 | 48 | 0.290 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.259 | 0.297 | 0.351 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 34 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 9 | 0.294 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Anthony Kay | Starter | 29 | 136.1 | 4.63 | 1.411 | 7.7 | 116 | 5.0 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 102 | 5.0 | 6 | 4 |
| Grant Taylor | Closer | 41 | 51.9 | 2.60 | 1.118 | 13.2 | 76 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Sean Newcomb | Setup Man | 46 | 60.2 | 2.84 | 1.246 | 9.6 | 64 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Hudson | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 60 | 52.8 | 2.90 | 1.307 | 9.4 | 55 | 0.1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 0.1 | 1 | 2 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Matthew Liberatore | Starter | 28 | 134.8 | 5.74 | 1.513 | 9.6 | 144 | 5.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 88 | 5.0 | 7 | 2 |
| Riley O'Brien | Closer | 60 | 55.2 | 4.24 | 1.341 | 9.3 | 57 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| George Soriano | Setup Man | 66 | 53.6 | 5.21 | 1.604 | 10.4 | 62 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0.2 | 2 | 0 |
| Ryne Stanek | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 63 | 48.6 | 5.00 | 1.605 | 11.1 | 60 | 1.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Justin Bruihl | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 64 | 59.8 | 4.21 | 1.589 | 7.5 | 50 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 31 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
STL wins 6-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 11 |
| MIL | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | x | 8 | 10 |
Quality edge: 1.5263; margin adjustment: 2.4421; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Héctor Rodríguez | RF | 28 | 98 | 25 | 0.255 | 5 | 12 | 0.311 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.253 | 0.297 | 0.416 | OK |
| Elly De La Cruz | SS | 124 | 488 | 140 | 0.287 | 26 | 70 | 0.366 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.329 | 0.399 | 0.749 | OK |
| Sal Stewart | 1B | 143 | 548 | 146 | 0.266 | 30 | 104 | 0.336 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.255 | 0.324 | 0.410 | OK |
| JJ Bleday | LF | 114 | 407 | 89 | 0.219 | 22 | 55 | 0.328 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.175 | 0.280 | 0.319 | OK |
| Tyler Stephenson | C | 113 | 366 | 92 | 0.251 | 15 | 52 | 0.333 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.174 | 0.269 | 0.312 | OK |
| Eugenio Suárez | DH | 110 | 384 | 81 | 0.211 | 22 | 63 | 0.305 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.600 | 0.216 | 0.309 | 0.460 | OK |
| Carlos Jorge | CF | 4 | 13 | 2 | 0.154 | 0 | 0 | 0.154 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.180 | 0.190 | 0.254 | OK |
| Matt McLain | 2B | 116 | 395 | 75 | 0.190 | 15 | 39 | 0.281 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.110 | 0.194 | 0.249 | OK |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 3B | 66 | 200 | 31 | 0.155 | 5 | 8 | 0.214 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.156 | 0.219 | 0.248 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 42 | 38 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 0.289 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jackson Chourio | LF | 110 | 460 | 135 | 0.293 | 23 | 65 | 0.350 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.350 | 0.389 | 0.604 | OK |
| Brice Turang | 2B | 133 | 518 | 137 | 0.264 | 17 | 87 | 0.358 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.279 | 0.382 | 0.416 | OK |
| William Contreras | C | 133 | 515 | 139 | 0.270 | 15 | 76 | 0.340 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.750 | 0.297 | 0.362 | 0.535 | OK |
| Andrew Vaughn | DH | 94 | 273 | 85 | 0.311 | 6 | 42 | 0.389 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.315 | 0.385 | 0.451 | OK |
| Jake Bauers | 1B | 125 | 420 | 112 | 0.267 | 23 | 76 | 0.390 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.192 | 0.351 | 0.385 | OK |
| Luis Lara | RF | 44 | 147 | 38 | 0.259 | 1 | 22 | 0.325 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.259 | 0.324 | 0.343 | OK |
| Cooper Pratt | SS | 57 | 180 | 47 | 0.261 | 3 | 28 | 0.327 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.236 | 0.306 | 0.326 | OK |
| Garrett Mitchell | CF | 123 | 403 | 102 | 0.253 | 8 | 50 | 0.341 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.250 | 0.320 | 0.395 | OK |
| Joey Ortiz | 3B | 105 | 321 | 81 | 0.252 | 8 | 41 | 0.314 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.266 | 0.323 | 0.395 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 34 | 10 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 0.294 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Andrew Abbott | Starter | 29 | 149.3 | 4.52 | 1.453 | 7.2 | 120 | 4.2 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 84 | 4.2 | 3 | 5 |
| Emilio Pagán | Closer | 38 | 35.5 | 4.06 | 1.099 | 9.4 | 37 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Luis Mey | Setup Man | 22 | 25.8 | 4.53 | 1.589 | 14.3 | 41 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Brock Burke | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 71 | 59.0 | 2.90 | 1.508 | 10.8 | 71 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Tony Santillan | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 40 | 35.1 | 6.41 | 1.709 | 9.0 | 35 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Dustin May | Starter | 6 | 22.4 | 6.43 | 1.562 | 8.4 | 21 | 4.2 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 95 | 4.2 | 3 | 4 |
| Trevor Megill | Closer | 56 | 54.5 | 1.98 | 0.881 | 10.4 | 63 | 2.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 33 | 2.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Abner Uribe | Setup Man | 54 | 47.9 | 2.25 | 1.086 | 10.0 | 53 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Aaron Ashby | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 69 | 73.1 | 3.57 | 1.505 | 13.4 | 109 | 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
MIL wins 8-6
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 |
| MIN | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | x | 5 | 9 |
Quality edge: -0.0888; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Steven Kwan | CF | 132 | 479 | 131 | 0.273 | 2 | 27 | 0.368 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.276 | 0.356 | 0.348 | OK |
| Chase DeLauter | DH | 117 | 440 | 131 | 0.298 | 14 | 61 | 0.367 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.314 | 0.376 | 0.509 | OK |
| José Ramírez | 3B | 109 | 410 | 96 | 0.234 | 11 | 48 | 0.326 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.198 | 0.276 | 0.304 | OK |
| Jo Adell | RF | 33 | 121 | 29 | 0.240 | 4 | 24 | 0.324 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.231 | 0.265 | 0.359 | OK |
| Travis Bazzana | 2B | 107 | 389 | 94 | 0.242 | 11 | 49 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.265 | 0.345 | 0.462 | OK |
| Nathaniel Lowe | 1B | 30 | 103 | 23 | 0.223 | 5 | 21 | 0.282 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.253 | 0.330 | 0.519 | OK |
| Angel Martínez | LF | 95 | 343 | 84 | 0.245 | 14 | 50 | 0.284 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.248 | 0.276 | 0.415 | OK |
| Austin Hedges | C | 67 | 194 | 49 | 0.253 | 5 | 23 | 0.323 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.218 | 0.290 | 0.321 | OK |
| Brayan Rocchio | SS | 137 | 482 | 120 | 0.249 | 13 | 61 | 0.306 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.235 | 0.273 | 0.385 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 32 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Luke Keaschall | RF | 136 | 471 | 129 | 0.274 | 9 | 44 | 0.367 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.272 | 0.350 | 0.388 | OK |
| Kaelen Culpepper | SS | 28 | 102 | 29 | 0.284 | 3 | 10 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.236 | 0.272 | 0.341 | OK |
| Ryan Jeffers | C | 78 | 278 | 75 | 0.270 | 14 | 54 | 0.366 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.253 | 0.336 | 0.505 | OK |
| Josh Bell | DH | 140 | 515 | 132 | 0.256 | 19 | 86 | 0.319 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.250 | 0.304 | 0.443 | OK |
| Kody Clemens | 2B | 128 | 474 | 114 | 0.241 | 26 | 74 | 0.302 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.235 | 0.294 | 0.526 | OK |
| Royce Lewis | 1B | 111 | 408 | 94 | 0.230 | 14 | 51 | 0.296 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.202 | 0.263 | 0.348 | OK |
| Brooks Lee | 3B | 137 | 524 | 130 | 0.248 | 23 | 78 | 0.295 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.243 | 0.281 | 0.405 | OK |
| Austin Martin | LF | 93 | 282 | 68 | 0.241 | 3 | 23 | 0.338 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1.000 | 0.245 | 0.323 | 0.366 | OK |
| Walker Jenkins | CF | 11 | 34 | 4 | 0.118 | 1 | 5 | 0.268 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.139 | 0.257 | 0.265 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 32 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 10 | 0.281 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Parker Messick | Starter | 28 | 160.7 | 2.63 | 1.077 | 9.7 | 173 | 6.0 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 9 | 108 | 6.0 | 9 | 3 |
| Cade Smith | Closer | 61 | 61.5 | 2.34 | 1.106 | 13.9 | 95 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Hunter Gaddis | Setup Man | 58 | 43.5 | 3.10 | 1.356 | 10.1 | 49 | 0.1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 0.1 | 1 | 2 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Taj Bradley | Starter | 28 | 157.0 | 4.01 | 1.280 | 10.5 | 184 | 5.2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 91 | 5.2 | 4 | 3 |
| Yoendrys Gómez | Closer | 49 | 39.2 | 2.76 | 1.352 | 10.1 | 44 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 |
| Jeff Hoffman | Setup Man | 13 | 10.6 | 3.40 | 1.509 | 14.4 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| A.J. Minter | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 16 | 12.2 | 0.74 | 1.066 | 9.6 | 13 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
MIN wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 5 |
| DET | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | x | 5 | 9 |
Quality edge: 1.0596; margin adjustment: 0.445; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jake McCarthy | LF | 125 | 484 | 142 | 0.293 | 15 | 75 | 0.335 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.295 | 0.328 | 0.472 | OK |
| Connor Norby | 1B | 27 | 85 | 23 | 0.271 | 3 | 12 | 0.367 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.224 | 0.315 | 0.377 | OK |
| Cole Carrigg | CF | 74 | 267 | 70 | 0.262 | 7 | 39 | 0.337 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.253 | 0.317 | 0.426 | OK |
| Hunter Goodman | C | 126 | 471 | 115 | 0.244 | 37 | 78 | 0.310 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.185 | 0.235 | 0.380 | OK |
| Kyle Karros | 3B | 113 | 353 | 93 | 0.263 | 11 | 45 | 0.359 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.224 | 0.302 | 0.422 | OK |
| Adael Amador | 2B | 12 | 36 | 12 | 0.333 | 3 | 10 | 0.400 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.280 | 0.339 | 0.499 | OK |
| Troy Johnston | DH | 114 | 364 | 103 | 0.283 | 4 | 47 | 0.348 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.268 | 0.331 | 0.392 | OK |
| Jordan Beck | RF | 50 | 140 | 27 | 0.193 | 1 | 11 | 0.250 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.186 | 0.245 | 0.276 | OK |
| Ezequiel Tovar | SS | 129 | 422 | 91 | 0.216 | 10 | 41 | 0.263 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.244 | 0.289 | 0.331 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 32 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Kevin McGonigle | 3B | 140 | 538 | 147 | 0.273 | 16 | 62 | 0.375 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.280 | 0.377 | 0.460 | OK |
| Gleyber Torres | DH | 85 | 322 | 87 | 0.270 | 8 | 36 | 0.370 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.294 | 0.382 | 0.396 | OK |
| Colt Keith | 1B | 130 | 367 | 94 | 0.256 | 10 | 34 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.250 | 0.293 | 0.407 | OK |
| Riley Greene | LF | 123 | 450 | 125 | 0.278 | 19 | 65 | 0.368 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.291 | 0.376 | 0.579 | OK |
| Dillon Dingler | C | 133 | 505 | 125 | 0.248 | 26 | 85 | 0.308 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.221 | 0.257 | 0.372 | OK |
| Max Clark | CF | 36 | 126 | 32 | 0.254 | 2 | 16 | 0.324 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.241 | 0.300 | 0.366 | OK |
| John Peck | SS | 7 | 25 | 6 | 0.240 | 0 | 4 | 0.345 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.216 | 0.276 | 0.301 | OK |
| Zach McKinstry | RF | 112 | 347 | 74 | 0.213 | 4 | 26 | 0.289 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.200 | 0.260 | 0.295 | OK |
| Javier Báez | 2B | 50 | 169 | 41 | 0.243 | 2 | 17 | 0.271 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.233 | 0.256 | 0.351 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 33 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 0.273 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Mason Adams | Starter | 3 | 13.2 | 4.09 | 1.667 | 11.6 | 17 | 4.1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 91 | 4.1 | 2 | 2 |
| Jordan Romano | Closer | 21 | 18.5 | 2.92 | 1.189 | 9.2 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Brennan Bernardino | Setup Man | 67 | 46.6 | 3.09 | 1.373 | 7.9 | 41 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Jimmy Herget | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 46 | 39.7 | 7.25 | 1.788 | 9.5 | 42 | 0.1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 0.1 | 0 | 3 |
| Jaden Hill | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 40 | 27.2 | 5.96 | 1.912 | 11.9 | 36 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Framber Valdez | Starter | 28 | 155.1 | 4.24 | 1.386 | 6.9 | 119 | 6.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 106 | 6.0 | 6 | 2 |
| Kenley Jansen | Closer | 43 | 36.4 | 3.46 | 1.209 | 10.9 | 44 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Tyler Holton | Setup Man | 63 | 58.5 | 3.23 | 1.453 | 8.5 | 55 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1.1 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyle Finnegan | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 58 | 51.4 | 3.68 | 1.673 | 8.1 | 46 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 0.2 | 1 | 1 |
DET wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | x | 5 | 7 |
Quality edge: 0.4817; margin adjustment: 0.2023; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jose Altuve | DH | 119 | 463 | 114 | 0.246 | 15 | 44 | 0.306 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.250 | 0.301 | 0.407 | OK |
| Jeremy Peña | SS | 96 | 387 | 105 | 0.271 | 17 | 47 | 0.324 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.221 | 0.256 | 0.358 | OK |
| Isaac Paredes | 3B | 139 | 504 | 129 | 0.256 | 19 | 82 | 0.357 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.261 | 0.334 | 0.416 | OK |
| Daulton Varsho | CF | 32 | 123 | 23 | 0.187 | 4 | 13 | 0.248 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.220 | 0.269 | 0.356 | OK |
| Yainer Diaz | C | 77 | 283 | 76 | 0.269 | 11 | 34 | 0.296 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.196 | 0.220 | 0.312 | OK |
| Christian Walker | 1B | 140 | 517 | 119 | 0.230 | 25 | 80 | 0.304 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.217 | 0.279 | 0.380 | OK |
| Cam Smith | RF | 134 | 461 | 101 | 0.219 | 20 | 53 | 0.284 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.260 | 0.318 | 0.590 | OK |
| Taylor Trammell | LF | 81 | 226 | 47 | 0.208 | 7 | 21 | 0.287 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.190 | 0.260 | 0.331 | OK |
| Nick Allen | 2B | 55 | 131 | 36 | 0.275 | 2 | 13 | 0.319 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.285 | 0.335 | 0.378 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 31 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Yandy Díaz | DH | 140 | 557 | 171 | 0.307 | 22 | 80 | 0.373 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.295 | 0.343 | 0.454 | OK |
| Jonathan Aranda | 1B | 141 | 532 | 148 | 0.278 | 19 | 86 | 0.361 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.172 | 0.253 | 0.302 | OK |
| Junior Caminero | 3B | 145 | 554 | 155 | 0.280 | 39 | 93 | 0.367 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.263 | 0.345 | 0.496 | OK |
| Liam Hicks | C | 29 | 88 | 27 | 0.307 | 4 | 17 | 0.398 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.193 | 0.269 | 0.322 | OK |
| Victor Mesa Jr. | RF | 58 | 190 | 46 | 0.242 | 12 | 27 | 0.300 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.202 | 0.260 | 0.392 | OK |
| Chandler Simpson | LF | 134 | 520 | 160 | 0.308 | 0 | 31 | 0.336 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.281 | 0.315 | 0.327 | OK |
| Cedric Mullins | CF | 122 | 411 | 84 | 0.204 | 14 | 45 | 0.287 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.183 | 0.261 | 0.289 | OK |
| Richie Palacios | 2B | 106 | 311 | 71 | 0.228 | 9 | 45 | 0.324 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.242 | 0.327 | 0.487 | OK |
| Jorge Mateo | SS | 16 | 50 | 7 | 0.140 | 1 | 7 | 0.185 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.180 | 0.220 | 0.272 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 31 | 7 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 9 | 0.226 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Miguel Ullola | Starter | 5 | 7.0 | 3.86 | 0.857 | 12.9 | 10 | 3.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 60 | 3.0 | 7 | 2 |
| Josh Hader | Closer | 41 | 40.4 | 0.67 | 0.594 | 12.0 | 54 | 2.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 2.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Bryan Abreu | Setup Man | 59 | 52.4 | 3.95 | 1.450 | 12.9 | 75 | 2.2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 53 | 2.2 | 2 | 3 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Drew Rasmussen | Starter | 27 | 152.4 | 2.89 | 0.912 | 9.2 | 156 | 6.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 104 | 6.0 | 7 | 3 |
| Bryan Baker | Closer | 57 | 54.6 | 1.48 | 0.879 | 9.9 | 60 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Kevin Kelly | Setup Man | 65 | 57.5 | 2.97 | 1.061 | 8.5 | 54 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Wells | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 12 | 15.3 | 1.76 | 0.719 | 9.4 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
TB wins 5-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 5 |
| BOS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 11 |
Quality edge: 1.015; margin adjustment: 0.4263; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Carter Jensen | C | 134 | 475 | 109 | 0.229 | 23 | 69 | 0.319 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.224 | 0.310 | 0.504 | OK |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | SS | 127 | 497 | 140 | 0.282 | 18 | 53 | 0.358 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.255 | 0.326 | 0.454 | OK |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | 1B | 99 | 366 | 88 | 0.240 | 11 | 47 | 0.331 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.210 | 0.303 | 0.374 | OK |
| Salvador Perez | DH | 136 | 526 | 121 | 0.230 | 19 | 71 | 0.275 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.235 | 0.263 | 0.380 | OK |
| Michael Massey | 2B | 114 | 367 | 102 | 0.278 | 11 | 45 | 0.313 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.255 | 0.294 | 0.379 | OK |
| John Rave | RF | 35 | 103 | 24 | 0.233 | 5 | 11 | 0.301 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.249 | 0.315 | 0.493 | OK |
| Nick Loftin | 3B | 105 | 336 | 79 | 0.235 | 7 | 42 | 0.319 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.225 | 0.295 | 0.358 | OK |
| Kyle Isbel | CF | 84 | 259 | 58 | 0.224 | 6 | 24 | 0.272 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.190 | 0.233 | 0.265 | OK |
| Isaac Collins | LF | 129 | 407 | 90 | 0.221 | 6 | 40 | 0.323 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.161 | 0.272 | 0.246 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 32 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 0.156 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Roman Anthony | LF | 41 | 157 | 37 | 0.236 | 4 | 9 | 0.344 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.221 | 0.307 | 0.421 | OK |
| Mickey Gasper | DH | 53 | 163 | 43 | 0.264 | 8 | 22 | 0.370 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.219 | 0.324 | 0.442 | OK |
| Adley Rutschman | C | 19 | 69 | 13 | 0.188 | 4 | 9 | 0.253 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.237 | 0.292 | 0.496 | OK |
| Wilyer Abreu | RF | 141 | 536 | 138 | 0.257 | 24 | 71 | 0.338 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.248 | 0.338 | 0.473 | OK |
| Trevor Story | SS | 51 | 206 | 48 | 0.233 | 3 | 23 | 0.263 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.258 | 0.281 | 0.357 | OK |
| Nick Sogard | 1B | 50 | 184 | 49 | 0.266 | 4 | 16 | 0.362 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.273 | 0.363 | 0.400 | OK |
| Caleb Durbin | 3B | 134 | 456 | 110 | 0.241 | 12 | 59 | 0.320 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.229 | 0.310 | 0.328 | OK |
| Jarren Duran | CF | 135 | 512 | 105 | 0.205 | 20 | 63 | 0.263 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.216 | 0.272 | 0.385 | OK |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 2B | 46 | 134 | 36 | 0.269 | 2 | 16 | 0.342 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.243 | 0.324 | 0.332 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 34 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 0.324 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Seth Lugo | Starter | 29 | 156.2 | 5.13 | 1.466 | 6.9 | 119 | 5.0 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 111 | 5.0 | 3 | 4 |
| Steven Cruz | Closer | 52 | 50.0 | 4.50 | 1.380 | 10.4 | 58 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Nate Pearson | Setup Man | 19 | 19.3 | 0.47 | 0.881 | 8.9 | 19 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 |
| Craig Kimbrel | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 11 | 10.3 | 3.50 | 1.359 | 7.0 | 8 | 0.2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 0.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Sonny Gray | Starter | 26 | 149.5 | 2.71 | 1.171 | 8.1 | 135 | 6.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 101 | 6.0 | 8 | 3 |
| Aroldis Chapman | Closer | 49 | 48.2 | 1.49 | 1.058 | 12.1 | 65 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 26 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 |
| Erik Miller | Setup Man | 13 | 13.1 | 0.69 | 0.992 | 16.5 | 24 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Garrett Whitlock | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 49 | 47.3 | 1.90 | 0.846 | 10.3 | 54 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
BOS wins 6-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| WAS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | x | 5 | 8 |
Quality edge: 0.2132; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Zach Neto | SS | 141 | 562 | 137 | 0.244 | 25 | 72 | 0.324 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.297 | 0.346 | 0.564 | OK |
| Mike Trout | CF | 127 | 464 | 113 | 0.244 | 20 | 51 | 0.375 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.259 | 0.349 | 0.396 | OK |
| Wade Meckler | LF | 76 | 242 | 72 | 0.298 | 3 | 25 | 0.368 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.302 | 0.371 | 0.397 | OK |
| Vaughn Grissom | 1B | 100 | 364 | 89 | 0.245 | 10 | 59 | 0.305 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.239 | 0.288 | 0.373 | OK |
| Moisés Ballesteros | C | 31 | 117 | 24 | 0.205 | 2 | 8 | 0.250 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.244 | 0.298 | 0.384 | OK |
| Christian Moore | 2B | 23 | 83 | 15 | 0.181 | 1 | 7 | 0.242 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.188 | 0.239 | 0.274 | OK |
| Josh Lowe | RF | 93 | 271 | 56 | 0.207 | 11 | 28 | 0.272 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.197 | 0.281 | 0.353 | OK |
| Denzer Guzman | 3B | 64 | 225 | 51 | 0.227 | 7 | 25 | 0.269 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.245 | 0.282 | 0.387 | OK |
| Adam Frazier | DH | 52 | 120 | 28 | 0.233 | 1 | 10 | 0.298 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.222 | 0.265 | 0.330 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 34 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| James Wood | RF | 121 | 463 | 123 | 0.266 | 30 | 74 | 0.392 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.253 | 0.372 | 0.444 | OK |
| Andrés Chaparro | DH | 66 | 166 | 42 | 0.253 | 10 | 35 | 0.340 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.261 | 0.324 | 0.503 | OK |
| Brady House | 3B | 80 | 285 | 69 | 0.242 | 10 | 43 | 0.298 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.166 | 0.216 | 0.286 | OK |
| CJ Abrams | SS | 139 | 529 | 137 | 0.259 | 30 | 95 | 0.337 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.193 | 0.260 | 0.380 | OK |
| Dylan Crews | LF | 93 | 352 | 79 | 0.224 | 11 | 39 | 0.295 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.242 | 0.295 | 0.418 | OK |
| Yohandy Morales | 1B | 7 | 19 | 6 | 0.316 | 2 | 2 | 0.316 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.205 | 0.216 | 0.479 | OK |
| Harry Ford | C | 27 | 83 | 16 | 0.193 | 3 | 10 | 0.302 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.193 | 0.294 | 0.351 | OK |
| Jorbit Vivas | 2B | 103 | 275 | 66 | 0.240 | 3 | 25 | 0.331 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.244 | 0.337 | 0.345 | OK |
| Jacob Young | CF | 117 | 389 | 97 | 0.249 | 10 | 43 | 0.309 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.250 | 0.297 | 0.355 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 32 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 11 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Yusei Kikuchi | Starter | 10 | 48.3 | 5.03 | 1.491 | 9.1 | 49 | 5.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 87 | 5.0 | 7 | 0 |
| Ben Joyce | Closer | 12 | 10.4 | 3.46 | 1.058 | 12.1 | 14 | 1.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 38 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 |
| Ryan Watson | Setup Man | 13 | 8.9 | 3.03 | 1.461 | 13.1 | 13 | 0.1 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 0.1 | 0 | 4 |
| Tayler Saucedo | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 21 | 12.0 | 4.50 | 1.500 | 15.0 | 20 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 20 | 1.1 | 3 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Cade Cavalli | Starter | 30 | 156.1 | 3.17 | 1.198 | 10.7 | 185 | 5.2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 85 | 5.2 | 5 | 1 |
| Clayton Beeter | Closer | 48 | 42.1 | 4.70 | 1.520 | 9.8 | 46 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Erik Tolman | Setup Man | 7 | 7.4 | 2.43 | 1.351 | 10.9 | 9 | 1.1 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 1.1 | 0 | 3 |
| Brad Lord | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 36 | 69.2 | 4.16 | 1.373 | 9.1 | 70 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 17 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
WAS wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 6 |
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
Quality edge: -1.1406; margin adjustment: -0.4791; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Tommy Edman | CF | 65 | 237 | 62 | 0.262 | 6 | 32 | 0.337 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.264 | 0.313 | 0.412 | OK |
| Mookie Betts | SS | 106 | 418 | 105 | 0.251 | 19 | 60 | 0.310 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.288 | 0.340 | 0.536 | OK |
| Max Muncy | 3B | 132 | 432 | 108 | 0.250 | 27 | 70 | 0.347 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.279 | 0.366 | 0.548 | OK |
| Will Smith | C | 58 | 196 | 47 | 0.240 | 7 | 27 | 0.330 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.247 | 0.335 | 0.427 | OK |
| Teoscar Hernández | LF | 108 | 382 | 103 | 0.270 | 13 | 57 | 0.335 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.390 | 0.450 | 0.588 | OK |
| Enrique Hernández | 1B | 27 | 63 | 14 | 0.222 | 3 | 9 | 0.279 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.233 | 0.292 | 0.428 | OK |
| Kyle Tucker | RF | 134 | 480 | 108 | 0.225 | 13 | 60 | 0.318 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.210 | 0.298 | 0.389 | OK |
| Player-800543 | DH | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.253 | 0.325 | 0.430 | |
| Alex Freeland | 2B | 79 | 212 | 47 | 0.222 | 3 | 20 | 0.307 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.186 | 0.297 | 0.272 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 33 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Heriberto Hernández | LF | 113 | 386 | 87 | 0.225 | 24 | 63 | 0.307 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.193 | 0.266 | 0.392 | OK |
| Otto Lopez | SS | 143 | 571 | 173 | 0.303 | 10 | 66 | 0.342 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.600 | 0.281 | 0.320 | 0.407 | OK |
| Jakob Marsee | CF | 137 | 469 | 105 | 0.224 | 9 | 36 | 0.340 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.308 | 0.377 | 0.404 | OK |
| Javier Sanoja | 3B | 118 | 401 | 117 | 0.292 | 8 | 57 | 0.326 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.296 | 0.326 | 0.460 | OK |
| Agustín Ramírez | C | 55 | 183 | 40 | 0.219 | 3 | 18 | 0.304 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.192 | 0.264 | 0.300 | OK |
| Kyle Stowers | 1B | 109 | 402 | 98 | 0.244 | 19 | 60 | 0.332 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.215 | 0.286 | 0.432 | OK |
| Esteury Ruiz | RF | 76 | 177 | 41 | 0.232 | 6 | 12 | 0.315 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.182 | 0.236 | 0.319 | OK |
| Jared Serna | 2B | 4 | 8 | 3 | 0.375 | 0 | 2 | 0.400 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.332 | 0.399 | 0.561 | OK |
| Griffin Conine | DH | 75 | 231 | 59 | 0.255 | 15 | 36 | 0.348 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.248 | 0.331 | 0.454 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 36 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Blake Snell | Starter | 6 | 32.0 | 1.97 | 1.094 | 12.1 | 43 | 5.2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 87 | 5.2 | 6 | 2 |
| Tanner Scott | Closer | 63 | 53.2 | 2.88 | 1.071 | 12.2 | 72 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Edgardo Henriquez | Setup Man | 59 | 50.4 | 3.04 | 1.111 | 12.3 | 69 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Brock Stewart | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 22 | 19.1 | 2.83 | 1.099 | 9.0 | 19 | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 1.1 | 0 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Ryan Gusto | Starter | 20 | 69.3 | 4.42 | 1.472 | 8.1 | 62 | 4.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 80 | 4.1 | 5 | 1 |
| Calvin Faucher | Closer | 62 | 53.4 | 4.21 | 1.536 | 11.3 | 67 | 1.0 | 4 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 29 | 1.0 | 2 | 5 |
| Tyler Zuber | Setup Man | 39 | 28.6 | 5.98 | 1.713 | 12.0 | 38 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Michael Petersen | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 58 | 51.8 | 3.65 | 1.255 | 11.8 | 68 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Victor Vodnik | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 13 | 13.4 | 4.70 | 1.343 | 7.4 | 11 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
LAD wins 6-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| NYY | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | x | 6 | 6 |
Quality edge: 0.9382; margin adjustment: 0.394; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Francisco Lindor | SS | 87 | 347 | 80 | 0.231 | 18 | 42 | 0.312 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.204 | 0.262 | 0.450 | OK |
| Juan Soto | LF | 93 | 332 | 92 | 0.277 | 24 | 59 | 0.395 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.243 | 0.346 | 0.456 | OK |
| Bo Bichette | 3B | 140 | 558 | 149 | 0.267 | 16 | 73 | 0.317 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.256 | 0.313 | 0.399 | OK |
| Mark Vientos | DH | 76 | 248 | 54 | 0.218 | 13 | 39 | 0.255 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.220 | 0.253 | 0.436 | OK |
| Carson Benge | RF | 136 | 521 | 140 | 0.269 | 16 | 54 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.239 | 0.307 | 0.357 | OK |
| Marcus Semien | 2B | 123 | 435 | 97 | 0.223 | 14 | 45 | 0.289 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.220 | 0.285 | 0.316 | OK |
| Christopher Morel | 1B | 9 | 20 | 6 | 0.300 | 1 | 4 | 0.364 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.250 | 0.299 | 0.428 | OK |
| A.J. Ewing | CF | 103 | 377 | 96 | 0.255 | 8 | 35 | 0.325 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.280 | 0.347 | 0.414 | OK |
| Francisco Alvarez | C | 97 | 324 | 73 | 0.225 | 14 | 35 | 0.310 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.000 | 0.208 | 0.271 | 0.391 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 36 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 8 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Ben Rice | DH | 137 | 515 | 132 | 0.256 | 35 | 84 | 0.354 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.245 | 0.326 | 0.416 | OK |
| Cody Bellinger | LF | 117 | 436 | 117 | 0.268 | 13 | 64 | 0.345 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.293 | 0.354 | 0.464 | OK |
| Aaron Judge | RF | 61 | 221 | 55 | 0.249 | 17 | 38 | 0.372 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.246 | 0.350 | 0.440 | OK |
| Luis García Jr. | 1B | 32 | 117 | 35 | 0.299 | 7 | 15 | 0.336 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.290 | 0.317 | 0.578 | OK |
| Spencer Jones | CF | 70 | 208 | 53 | 0.255 | 9 | 33 | 0.330 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.318 | 0.390 | 0.503 | OK |
| George Lombard Jr. | SS | 29 | 100 | 23 | 0.230 | 3 | 11 | 0.288 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.205 | 0.260 | 0.346 | OK |
| Ryan McMahon | 3B | 102 | 292 | 63 | 0.216 | 10 | 33 | 0.281 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.221 | 0.287 | 0.341 | OK |
| Austin Wells | C | 109 | 304 | 55 | 0.181 | 10 | 28 | 0.281 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.149 | 0.280 | 0.261 | OK |
| Anthony Volpe | 2B | 54 | 172 | 43 | 0.250 | 2 | 22 | 0.335 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.251 | 0.326 | 0.368 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 29 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 0.207 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Nolan McLean | Starter | 28 | 159.8 | 3.10 | 1.158 | 10.1 | 179 | 6.0 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 119 | 6.0 | 6 | 2 |
| Kodai Senga | Closer | 27 | 55.2 | 7.50 | 1.685 | 11.1 | 68 | 0.1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.1 | 1 | 1 |
| Daniel Duarte | Setup Man | 23 | 25.4 | 2.48 | 0.906 | 9.9 | 28 | 1.1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 34 | 1.1 | 0 | 3 |
| Nathan Lavender | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 15 | 10.6 | 2.55 | 1.321 | 14.4 | 17 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Carlos Rodón | Starter | 13 | 62.6 | 3.16 | 1.198 | 10.1 | 70 | 5.2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 101 | 5.2 | 5 | 2 |
| David Bednar | Closer | 58 | 57.7 | 2.81 | 1.092 | 10.9 | 70 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 |
| Brent Headrick | Setup Man | 74 | 58.9 | 2.29 | 1.443 | 13.9 | 91 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Paul Blackburn | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 56 | 70.7 | 1.91 | 1.160 | 8.4 | 66 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
NYY wins 6-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| ATL | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | x | 4 | 9 |
Quality edge: 0.2527; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Kyle Schwarber | DH | 139 | 526 | 126 | 0.240 | 43 | 91 | 0.351 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.224 | 0.323 | 0.505 | OK |
| Trea Turner | SS | 139 | 581 | 141 | 0.243 | 19 | 56 | 0.292 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.225 | 0.265 | 0.409 | OK |
| Bryce Harper | RF | 145 | 512 | 138 | 0.270 | 27 | 82 | 0.387 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.257 | 0.373 | 0.442 | OK |
| Luis Arraez | 2B | 33 | 131 | 39 | 0.298 | 2 | 14 | 0.319 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.300 | 0.334 | 0.393 | OK |
| Alec Bohm | 1B | 137 | 512 | 126 | 0.246 | 15 | 79 | 0.309 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.239 | 0.299 | 0.392 | OK |
| Edmundo Sosa | 3B | 75 | 214 | 51 | 0.238 | 7 | 42 | 0.275 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.242 | 0.261 | 0.409 | OK |
| Bryan De La Cruz | LF | 22 | 56 | 19 | 0.339 | 2 | 12 | 0.381 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.321 | 0.357 | 0.470 | OK |
| J.T. Realmuto | C | 107 | 367 | 79 | 0.215 | 10 | 46 | 0.288 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.183 | 0.249 | 0.291 | OK |
| Derek Hill | CF | 39 | 107 | 29 | 0.271 | 6 | 19 | 0.297 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.185 | 0.217 | 0.361 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 35 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Drake Baldwin | DH | 123 | 481 | 133 | 0.277 | 23 | 71 | 0.354 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.272 | 0.335 | 0.445 | OK |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | RF | 93 | 353 | 89 | 0.252 | 16 | 45 | 0.346 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.245 | 0.317 | 0.442 | OK |
| Matt Olson | 1B | 146 | 561 | 139 | 0.248 | 36 | 79 | 0.322 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.216 | 0.286 | 0.388 | OK |
| Michael Harris II | CF | 140 | 530 | 153 | 0.289 | 24 | 80 | 0.314 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.223 | 0.250 | 0.379 | OK |
| Mauricio Dubón | SS | 138 | 512 | 136 | 0.266 | 11 | 66 | 0.309 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.254 | 0.292 | 0.370 | OK |
| Ozzie Albies | 2B | 146 | 552 | 139 | 0.252 | 21 | 68 | 0.307 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.155 | 0.214 | 0.278 | OK |
| Austin Riley | 3B | 144 | 509 | 114 | 0.224 | 16 | 67 | 0.295 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.229 | 0.279 | 0.370 | OK |
| Mike Yastrzemski | LF | 119 | 316 | 71 | 0.225 | 9 | 33 | 0.304 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.158 | 0.232 | 0.264 | OK |
| Sean Murphy | C | 22 | 74 | 15 | 0.203 | 3 | 8 | 0.262 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.197 | 0.264 | 0.372 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 34 | 33 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 0.273 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Aaron Nola | Starter | 29 | 151.5 | 4.87 | 1.399 | 9.6 | 162 | 5.2 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 102 | 5.2 | 3 | 4 |
| Jhoan Duran | Closer | 55 | 53.4 | 1.52 | 0.993 | 12.6 | 75 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Jonathan Bowlan | Setup Man | 56 | 49.8 | 3.43 | 1.084 | 12.3 | 68 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Chris Sale | Starter | 25 | 148.6 | 2.12 | 1.016 | 11.1 | 184 | 6.1 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 112 | 6.1 | 8 | 2 |
| Raisel Iglesias | Closer | 53 | 51.9 | 2.95 | 1.214 | 9.7 | 56 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Dylan Lee | Setup Man | 65 | 54.3 | 2.65 | 0.939 | 12.4 | 75 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Didier Fuentes | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 52 | 60.3 | 2.54 | 1.144 | 12.5 | 84 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 0.2 | 2 | 0 |
ATL wins 4-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 10 |
Quality edge: 0.2852; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Konnor Griffin | SS | 64 | 248 | 65 | 0.262 | 5 | 27 | 0.320 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.233 | 0.281 | 0.342 | OK |
| Oneil Cruz | CF | 83 | 323 | 89 | 0.276 | 18 | 62 | 0.362 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.313 | 0.374 | 0.510 | OK |
| Bryan Reynolds | DH | 144 | 533 | 142 | 0.266 | 16 | 69 | 0.372 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.277 | 0.368 | 0.453 | OK |
| Rafael Flores Jr. | 1B | 32 | 107 | 26 | 0.243 | 8 | 19 | 0.308 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.257 | 0.314 | 0.502 | OK |
| Esmerlyn Valdez | RF | 68 | 226 | 52 | 0.230 | 14 | 39 | 0.347 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.600 | 0.222 | 0.340 | 0.477 | OK |
| Nick Gonzales | 2B | 132 | 501 | 151 | 0.301 | 4 | 57 | 0.363 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.294 | 0.341 | 0.377 | OK |
| Jake Mangum | LF | 110 | 386 | 111 | 0.288 | 4 | 30 | 0.340 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.286 | 0.324 | 0.377 | OK |
| Jared Triolo | 3B | 98 | 296 | 74 | 0.250 | 3 | 28 | 0.324 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.265 | 0.329 | 0.337 | OK |
| Henry Davis | C | 78 | 235 | 39 | 0.166 | 9 | 35 | 0.250 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.163 | 0.226 | 0.313 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 41 | 37 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 0.270 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | CF | 145 | 558 | 158 | 0.283 | 41 | 97 | 0.378 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.278 | 0.348 | 0.552 | OK |
| Seiya Suzuki | RF | 128 | 486 | 131 | 0.270 | 24 | 80 | 0.370 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.226 | 0.335 | 0.396 | OK |
| Michael Busch | 1B | 143 | 542 | 128 | 0.236 | 17 | 70 | 0.345 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.203 | 0.306 | 0.342 | OK |
| Alex Bregman | 3B | 143 | 566 | 148 | 0.261 | 24 | 82 | 0.351 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.255 | 0.337 | 0.422 | OK |
| Ian Happ | LF | 137 | 496 | 109 | 0.220 | 23 | 65 | 0.324 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.333 | 0.200 | 0.307 | 0.344 | OK |
| Nico Hoerner | SS | 142 | 566 | 151 | 0.267 | 8 | 65 | 0.317 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.277 | 0.319 | 0.362 | OK |
| Michael Conforto | DH | 95 | 227 | 55 | 0.242 | 14 | 39 | 0.331 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.279 | 0.362 | 0.532 | OK |
| Pedro Ramirez | 2B | 64 | 193 | 51 | 0.264 | 5 | 28 | 0.321 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.209 | 0.264 | 0.377 | OK |
| Carson Kelly | C | 103 | 347 | 90 | 0.259 | 10 | 53 | 0.336 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.667 | 0.245 | 0.310 | 0.383 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 36 | 10 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 11 | 0.278 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Wilber Dotel | Starter | 16 | 31.5 | 2.86 | 1.175 | 9.7 | 34 | 5.0 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 95 | 5.0 | 7 | 2 |
| Mason Montgomery | Closer | 62 | 54.2 | 2.82 | 1.144 | 15.8 | 95 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Luke Weaver | Setup Man | 12 | 10.4 | 6.06 | 1.635 | 12.1 | 14 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 25 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Gregory Soto | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 61 | 56.2 | 2.88 | 1.103 | 11.4 | 71 | 1.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 39 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Shota Imanaga | Starter | 28 | 153.3 | 3.99 | 1.142 | 8.9 | 152 | 5.1 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 105 | 5.1 | 5 | 2 |
| Jacob Webb | Closer | 63 | 55.6 | 3.72 | 1.385 | 10.8 | 67 | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 |
| Trent Thornton | Setup Man | 46 | 40.8 | 3.75 | 1.373 | 6.8 | 31 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Ryan Zeferjahn | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 14 | 10.2 | 7.94 | 1.961 | 11.5 | 13 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
CHC wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 11 |
| SF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
Quality edge: -0.4967; margin adjustment: -0.2086; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | 2B | 142 | 566 | 161 | 0.284 | 20 | 71 | 0.349 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.293 | 0.352 | 0.464 | OK |
| Jake Cronenworth | 1B | 92 | 318 | 66 | 0.208 | 5 | 27 | 0.292 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.186 | 0.258 | 0.282 | OK |
| Manny Machado | 3B | 142 | 526 | 118 | 0.224 | 26 | 80 | 0.314 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.270 | 0.361 | 0.471 | OK |
| Luis Campusano | DH | 60 | 176 | 50 | 0.284 | 7 | 27 | 0.382 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.283 | 0.367 | 0.464 | OK |
| Jackson Merrill | CF | 142 | 552 | 135 | 0.245 | 24 | 79 | 0.295 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.277 | 0.314 | 0.580 | OK |
| Xander Bogaerts | SS | 139 | 472 | 103 | 0.218 | 11 | 52 | 0.320 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.215 | 0.319 | 0.283 | OK |
| Samad Taylor | LF | 33 | 109 | 34 | 0.312 | 1 | 11 | 0.390 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.258 | 0.327 | 0.349 | OK |
| Dustin Harris | RF | 9 | 28 | 9 | 0.321 | 0 | 1 | 0.321 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.254 | 0.300 | 0.320 | OK |
| Freddy Fermin | C | 72 | 214 | 41 | 0.192 | 4 | 17 | 0.265 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.143 | 0.217 | 0.225 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 41 | 38 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0.289 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jonah Cox | CF | 37 | 94 | 26 | 0.277 | 4 | 11 | 0.313 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.256 | 0.292 | 0.403 | OK |
| Rafael Devers | DH | 145 | 543 | 141 | 0.260 | 34 | 91 | 0.342 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.276 | 0.362 | 0.588 | OK |
| Bryce Eldridge | 1B | 101 | 359 | 96 | 0.267 | 16 | 52 | 0.362 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.276 | 0.372 | 0.471 | OK |
| Osleivis Basabe | 2B | 33 | 111 | 23 | 0.207 | 5 | 12 | 0.258 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.203 | 0.243 | 0.358 | OK |
| Turner Hill | LF | 20 | 63 | 17 | 0.270 | 0 | 12 | 0.364 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.255 | 0.343 | 0.353 | OK |
| Shay Whitcomb | 3B | 14 | 51 | 9 | 0.176 | 1 | 5 | 0.176 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.195 | 0.202 | 0.327 | OK |
| Jung Hoo Lee | RF | 131 | 498 | 141 | 0.283 | 8 | 53 | 0.326 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.231 | 0.269 | 0.329 | OK |
| Andrew Knizner | C | 16 | 41 | 6 | 0.146 | 1 | 1 | 0.222 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.161 | 0.216 | 0.271 | OK |
| Christian Koss | SS | 51 | 154 | 35 | 0.227 | 4 | 9 | 0.265 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.291 | 0.324 | 0.473 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 34 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Robbie Ray | Starter | 6 | 28.2 | 4.79 | 1.596 | 6.4 | 20 | 5.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 89 | 5.0 | 6 | 3 |
| Mason Miller | Closer | 58 | 58.3 | 1.23 | 0.875 | 17.4 | 113 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Adrian Morejon | Setup Man | 68 | 69.8 | 3.22 | 1.218 | 12.4 | 96 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Bradgley Rodriguez | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 60 | 56.7 | 2.06 | 1.129 | 11.4 | 72 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Yuki Matsui | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 46 | 49.3 | 2.37 | 1.318 | 11.3 | 62 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Anthony Molina | Starter | 3 | 14.1 | 1.91 | 0.709 | 8.3 | 13 | 5.0 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 92 | 5.0 | 2 | 4 |
| Dylan Smith | Closer | 35 | 29.6 | 3.65 | 1.588 | 12.5 | 41 | 1.1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 24 | 1.1 | 0 | 1 |
| Trent Harris | Setup Man | 14 | 15.3 | 2.94 | 1.307 | 12.4 | 21 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Carson Seymour | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 17 | 21.2 | 6.37 | 1.887 | 7.6 | 18 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
SD wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 12 |
| OAK | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 8 |
Quality edge: -0.5142; margin adjustment: -0.216; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| J.P. Crawford | SS | 101 | 352 | 77 | 0.219 | 10 | 33 | 0.341 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.200 | 0.229 | 0.346 | 0.320 | OK |
| Randy Arozarena | LF | 139 | 514 | 140 | 0.272 | 22 | 67 | 0.372 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.400 | 0.267 | 0.345 | 0.441 | OK |
| Dominic Canzone | RF | 129 | 418 | 106 | 0.254 | 21 | 66 | 0.322 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.254 | 0.309 | 0.454 | OK |
| Cal Raleigh | C | 111 | 398 | 73 | 0.183 | 21 | 59 | 0.295 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.245 | 0.334 | 0.425 | OK |
| Julio Rodríguez | CF | 135 | 539 | 129 | 0.239 | 21 | 64 | 0.297 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.216 | 0.258 | 0.378 | OK |
| Josh Naylor | 1B | 137 | 535 | 142 | 0.265 | 10 | 49 | 0.322 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.229 | 0.276 | 0.297 | OK |
| Taylor Ward | DH | 24 | 78 | 9 | 0.115 | 0 | 5 | 0.216 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.117 | 0.249 | 0.184 | OK |
| Cole Young | 2B | 145 | 529 | 131 | 0.248 | 16 | 60 | 0.311 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.262 | 0.312 | 0.378 | OK |
| Weston Wilson | 3B | 36 | 95 | 17 | 0.179 | 3 | 8 | 0.257 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.119 | 0.205 | 0.197 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 39 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 10 | 0.308 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Henry Bolte | CF | 100 | 357 | 99 | 0.277 | 10 | 33 | 0.355 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.283 | 0.350 | 0.447 | OK |
| Jeff McNeil | 2B | 127 | 426 | 114 | 0.268 | 8 | 53 | 0.313 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.265 | 0.298 | 0.368 | OK |
| Zack Gelof | 3B | 92 | 338 | 85 | 0.251 | 17 | 44 | 0.316 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.209 | 0.261 | 0.394 | OK |
| Lawrence Butler | RF | 132 | 414 | 93 | 0.225 | 13 | 52 | 0.311 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.199 | 0.266 | 0.344 | OK |
| Max Muncy | DH | 77 | 245 | 57 | 0.233 | 9 | 29 | 0.300 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.256 | 0.314 | 0.435 | OK |
| Donovan Walton | SS | 41 | 95 | 21 | 0.221 | 3 | 11 | 0.398 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.259 | 0.361 | 0.452 | OK |
| Tommy White | 1B | 41 | 156 | 39 | 0.250 | 2 | 8 | 0.267 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.236 | 0.254 | 0.309 | OK |
| Carlos Cortes | LF | 108 | 309 | 80 | 0.259 | 9 | 40 | 0.324 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.258 | 0.308 | 0.400 | OK |
| Jonah Heim | C | 82 | 283 | 58 | 0.205 | 12 | 34 | 0.261 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.184 | 0.237 | 0.331 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 35 | 8 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| George Kirby | Starter | 27 | 155.6 | 4.28 | 1.375 | 7.7 | 133 | 5.2 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 102 | 5.2 | 2 | 3 |
| Andrés Muñoz | Closer | 56 | 51.3 | 3.86 | 1.189 | 14.9 | 85 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| José A. Ferrer | Setup Man | 65 | 51.5 | 4.37 | 1.612 | 8.4 | 48 | 1.0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 31 | 1.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Eduard Bazardo | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 67 | 52.3 | 4.65 | 1.740 | 11.0 | 64 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jeffrey Springs | Starter | 26 | 125.8 | 6.22 | 1.494 | 7.4 | 104 | 4.2 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 76 | 4.2 | 5 | 3 |
| Elvis Alvarado | Closer | 48 | 41.7 | 4.75 | 1.439 | 12.3 | 57 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 |
| Hogan Harris | Setup Man | 67 | 52.7 | 4.10 | 1.746 | 14.2 | 83 | 1.0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 19 | 1.0 | 3 | 2 |
| Luis Medina | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 50 | 61.2 | 3.38 | 1.454 | 12.4 | 84 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Scott Blewett | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 17 | 24.0 | 2.62 | 1.375 | 9.0 | 24 | 1.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
SEA wins 7-6
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 13 |
| ARI | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 |
Quality edge: 0.0851; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Joc Pederson | DH | 131 | 367 | 86 | 0.234 | 26 | 52 | 0.324 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.228 | 0.307 | 0.537 | OK |
| Corey Seager | SS | 86 | 321 | 73 | 0.227 | 17 | 40 | 0.322 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.240 | 0.317 | 0.509 | OK |
| Ezequiel Duran | 3B | 136 | 485 | 131 | 0.270 | 17 | 78 | 0.330 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.252 | 0.311 | 0.409 | OK |
| Brandon Nimmo | RF | 141 | 540 | 141 | 0.261 | 14 | 58 | 0.325 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.241 | 0.288 | 0.361 | OK |
| Wyatt Langford | LF | 95 | 361 | 87 | 0.241 | 16 | 38 | 0.330 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.180 | 0.286 | 0.348 | OK |
| Evan Carter | CF | 125 | 359 | 70 | 0.195 | 9 | 35 | 0.289 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.196 | 0.271 | 0.335 | OK |
| Jake Burger | 1B | 139 | 503 | 119 | 0.237 | 26 | 83 | 0.305 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.203 | 0.290 | 0.462 | OK |
| Nicky Lopez | 2B | 77 | 207 | 59 | 0.285 | 1 | 23 | 0.329 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.600 | 0.340 | 0.370 | 0.401 | OK |
| Danny Jansen | C | 52 | 159 | 29 | 0.182 | 6 | 20 | 0.270 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.219 | 0.275 | 0.411 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 45 | 40 | 13 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 0.325 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Ildemaro Vargas | 1B | 121 | 428 | 107 | 0.250 | 9 | 66 | 0.287 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.230 | 0.262 | 0.322 | OK |
| Ketel Marte | 2B | 125 | 499 | 125 | 0.251 | 22 | 70 | 0.317 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.244 | 0.305 | 0.404 | OK |
| Gabriel Moreno | C | 116 | 418 | 125 | 0.299 | 12 | 70 | 0.377 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.184 | 0.271 | 0.314 | OK |
| Geraldo Perdomo | SS | 142 | 507 | 127 | 0.250 | 9 | 50 | 0.358 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.233 | 0.334 | 0.327 | OK |
| Corbin Carroll | RF | 141 | 526 | 126 | 0.240 | 19 | 61 | 0.334 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.154 | 0.241 | 0.332 | OK |
| Nolan Arenado | 3B | 137 | 478 | 113 | 0.236 | 23 | 69 | 0.313 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.241 | 0.313 | 0.460 | OK |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | DH | 49 | 180 | 37 | 0.206 | 2 | 22 | 0.251 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.194 | 0.233 | 0.286 | OK |
| Jordan Lawlar | CF | 29 | 89 | 23 | 0.258 | 4 | 10 | 0.320 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.239 | 0.262 | 0.370 | OK |
| Ryan Waldschmidt | LF | 75 | 240 | 63 | 0.262 | 3 | 22 | 0.328 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.246 | 0.314 | 0.340 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 32 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 0.188 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| MacKenzie Gore | Starter | 30 | 153.7 | 4.63 | 1.366 | 10.0 | 170 | 5.0 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 94 | 5.0 | 2 | 4 |
| Jacob Latz | Closer | 50 | 59.6 | 1.51 | 0.755 | 10.6 | 70 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jakob Junis | Setup Man | 46 | 45.6 | 2.96 | 1.228 | 6.9 | 35 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Chase Silseth | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 17 | 12.1 | 3.72 | 1.736 | 11.2 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Alexander | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 66 | 55.8 | 3.71 | 1.470 | 9.0 | 56 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Merrill Kelly | Starter | 26 | 145.1 | 5.15 | 1.496 | 6.1 | 99 | 5.1 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 116 | 5.1 | 4 | 5 |
| Brandyn Garcia | Closer | 36 | 26.8 | 2.01 | 0.784 | 12.1 | 36 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 21 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Juan Morillo | Setup Man | 48 | 40.4 | 2.90 | 1.114 | 12.3 | 55 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 21 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Loáisiga | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 48 | 40.8 | 3.09 | 1.225 | 7.1 | 32 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Kevin Ginkel | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 50 | 42.9 | 3.36 | 1.235 | 9.0 | 43 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Taylor Clarke | Middle Reliever | 62 | 55.1 | 2.94 | 0.998 | 6.0 | 37 | 0.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0.1 | 0 | 1 |
TEX wins 6-4