MLB Predictions — September 10, 2026

Matchup	Target Score	Sim Score	Target Winner	Sim Winner	Winner	Confidence	Method
COL @ NYY	4 - 8	4 - 8	NYY	NYY	NYY wins 8-4	58%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
HOU @ PHI	4 - 5	4 - 5	PHI	PHI	PHI wins 5-4	57%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
PIT @ CHW	4 - 3	4 - 3	PIT	PIT	PIT wins 4-3	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TB @ ATL	6 - 5	6 - 5	TB	TB	TB wins 6-5	51%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TEX @ SEA	4 - 5	4 - 5	SEA	SEA	SEA wins 5-4	53%	enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees

COL 55-90 (4.71 RPG / 5.72 RA)

4 - 8

NYY 83-62 (4.53 RPG / 3.68 RA)

WINNER: NYY wins 8-4 TARGET: COL 4 - 8 NYY (NYY) Confidence: 58.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
COL	0	0	0	0	3	1	0	0	0	4	8
NYY	0	3	0	0	2	1	2	0	x	8	10

COL Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs4.2

Avg Allowed4.9

Run Diff-7

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak3L

NYY Recent Form

Win%0.700

Avg Runs6.0

Avg Allowed3.1

Run Diff29

Off Trendhot

Def Trendstrong

Streak2W

COL Season Quality

Record55-90

Win%0.379

Run Diff-147

RD/Game-1.014

NYY Season Quality

Record83-62

Win%0.572

Run Diff124

RD/Game0.855

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.7195; margin adjustment: 2.7512; applied: True

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jake McCarthy	LF	124	479	140	0.292	15	74	0.334	5	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.274	0.312	0.441	OK
Connor Norby	2B	26	82	23	0.280	3	12	0.372	5	5	1	0	0	0	2	0.200	0.254	0.335	0.436	OK
Hunter Goodman	C	125	466	115	0.247	37	78	0.313	5	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.188	0.243	0.389	OK
TJ Rumfield	1B	138	492	147	0.299	15	66	0.390	5	4	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.296	0.380	0.477	OK
Cole Carrigg	CF	73	264	69	0.261	7	39	0.337	5	4	1	1	0	1	0	0.250	0.248	0.312	0.432	OK
Kyle Karros	3B	112	349	92	0.264	10	44	0.360	4	4	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.228	0.307	0.402	OK
Adael Amador	DH	11	32	11	0.344	3	10	0.417	4	3	2	1	3	1	1	0.667	0.315	0.384	0.614	OK
Jordan Beck	RF	49	137	27	0.197	1	11	0.250	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.196	0.244	0.287	OK
Ezequiel Tovar	SS	128	419	89	0.212	10	41	0.259	4	4	1	0	0	0	3	0.250	0.194	0.235	0.286	OK
TEAM TOTALS									41	35	8	4	4	4	11	0.229

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Ben Rice	DH	136	510	131	0.257	35	84	0.355	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.271	0.356	0.470	OK
Cody Bellinger	LF	116	433	115	0.266	13	63	0.344	4	4	2	1	0	0	0	0.500	0.284	0.345	0.440	OK
Jasson Domínguez	RF	52	197	46	0.234	6	14	0.271	4	4	2	1	4	0	1	0.500	0.162	0.195	0.268	OK
Luis García Jr.	1B	31	112	34	0.304	6	13	0.342	4	4	1	1	0	0	0	0.250	0.333	0.360	0.595	OK
Spencer Jones	CF	69	204	50	0.245	9	31	0.323	4	4	0	1	0	0	1	0.000	0.280	0.363	0.491	OK
George Lombard Jr.	SS	28	96	23	0.240	3	11	0.299	4	4	1	1	0	0	2	0.250	0.216	0.274	0.391	OK
Ryan McMahon	3B	101	289	62	0.215	10	33	0.278	4	4	2	1	3	0	1	0.500	0.211	0.271	0.335	OK
Austin Wells	C	108	303	55	0.182	10	28	0.275	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.156	0.260	0.277	OK
Anthony Volpe	2B	53	168	40	0.238	1	17	0.326	3	3	1	1	0	0	2	0.333	0.236	0.315	0.324	OK
TEAM TOTALS									34	34	10	8	8	0	9	0.294

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Ryan Feltner	Starter	22	104.1	6.05	1.604	7.0	81	4.2	7	5	5	0	5	92	4.2	5	4
Jordan Romano	Closer	21	18.5	2.92	1.189	9.2	19	1.0	1	1	1	0	2	16	1.0	2	1
Brennan Bernardino	Setup Man	67	46.6	3.09	1.373	7.9	41	1.1	2	2	2	0	2	26	1.1	2	2
Jimmy Herget	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	45	38.6	6.99	1.788	9.3	40	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Max Fried	Starter	17	93.1	2.80	1.020	8.4	87	6.0	7	2	2	1	7	113	6.0	7	2
David Bednar	Closer	58	57.7	2.81	1.092	10.9	70	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	21	1.0	1	0
Brent Headrick	Setup Man	73	58.8	2.30	1.412	13.9	91	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	29	1.0	2	0
Paul Blackburn	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	56	70.7	1.91	1.160	8.4	66	1.0	1	2	2	1	1	20	1.0	1	2

Game Summary

NYY wins 8-4

Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies

HOU 75-72 (4.5 RPG / 4.78 RA)

4 - 5

PHI 82-65 (4.48 RPG / 4.23 RA)

WINNER: PHI wins 5-4 TARGET: HOU 4 - 5 PHI (PHI) Confidence: 56.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
HOU	2	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	8
PHI	4	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	x	5	7

HOU Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.2

Avg Allowed3.7

Run Diff5

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs4.1

Avg Allowed3.0

Run Diff11

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendstrong

Streak1W

HOU Season Quality

Record74-72

Win%0.507

Run Diff-41

RD/Game-0.281

PHI Season Quality

Record82-64

Win%0.562

Run Diff38

RD/Game0.260

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.4289; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Jeremy Peña	SS	95	383	104	0.272	17	47	0.325	5	4	2	1	2	0	1	0.500	0.235	0.268	0.377	OK
Yordan Alvarez	DH	143	515	162	0.315	38	96	0.431	5	4	3	1	0	1	0	0.750	0.274	0.368	0.492	OK
Isaac Paredes	3B	138	500	128	0.256	19	82	0.358	5	5	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.259	0.334	0.452	OK
Jose Altuve	2B	118	459	112	0.244	15	44	0.304	4	4	2	1	2	0	0	0.500	0.225	0.273	0.350	OK
Daulton Varsho	CF	31	119	23	0.193	4	13	0.256	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.226	0.277	0.365	OK
Christian Walker	1B	139	513	118	0.230	25	80	0.305	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.222	0.284	0.395	OK
Cam Smith	RF	133	458	99	0.216	19	52	0.281	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.236	0.290	0.511	OK
Taylor Trammell	LF	80	223	46	0.206	7	20	0.283	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.183	0.250	0.326	OK
Christian Vázquez	C	79	231	49	0.212	7	25	0.265	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.194	0.250	0.309	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	35	8	4	4	3	7	0.229

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Kyle Schwarber	DH	138	523	126	0.241	43	91	0.352	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.254	0.346	0.606	OK
Trea Turner	SS	138	577	141	0.244	19	56	0.294	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.254	0.295	0.449	OK
Bryce Harper	RF	144	509	138	0.271	27	82	0.389	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.276	0.389	0.469	OK
Luis Arraez	2B	32	128	38	0.297	2	14	0.319	4	4	1	1	1	0	2	0.250	0.313	0.346	0.413	OK
Alec Bohm	1B	136	509	125	0.246	15	79	0.308	4	3	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.248	0.307	0.414	OK
Bryson Stott	3B	138	479	120	0.251	10	60	0.327	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.231	0.303	0.358	OK
Brandon Marsh	LF	137	484	130	0.269	17	58	0.314	4	3	1	1	1	1	1	0.333	0.236	0.279	0.352	OK
Justin Crawford	CF	129	380	98	0.258	2	34	0.307	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.239	0.284	0.325	OK
Rafael Marchán	C	29	88	9	0.102	2	6	0.141	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.135	0.161	0.205	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	31	7	5	5	3	8	0.226

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Cristian Javier	Starter	14	48.5	6.12	1.588	9.3	50	4.0	7	5	5	2	6	89	4.0	6	5
Josh Hader	Closer	40	39.4	0.69	0.609	12.1	53	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Bryan Abreu	Setup Man	58	51.4	4.03	1.479	12.6	72	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	17	1.0	0	0
AJ Blubaugh	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	57	83.4	3.56	1.283	9.7	90	1.1	0	0	0	0	0	17	1.1	0	0
Enyel De Los Santos	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	63	58.0	4.97	1.362	9.6	62	0.2	0	0	0	0	2	8	0.2	2	0

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Zack Wheeler	Starter	24	134.7	3.27	1.091	10.9	163	5.2	7	3	3	1	6	108	5.2	6	3
Jhoan Duran	Closer	54	52.4	1.37	0.992	12.7	74	1.0	0	0	0	1	0	19	1.0	0	0
Jonathan Bowlan	Setup Man	56	49.8	3.43	1.084	12.3	68	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Orion Kerkering	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	59	47.9	4.70	1.482	10.7	57	1.0	1	1	1	0	0	16	1.0	0	1
Brooks Raley	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	12	7.7	4.68	1.429	10.5	9	0.1	0	0	0	1	1	8	0.1	1	0

Game Summary

PHI wins 5-4

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox

PIT 73-73 (4.84 RPG / 4.61 RA)

4 - 3

CHW 75-70 (4.72 RPG / 4.44 RA)

WINNER: PIT wins 4-3 TARGET: PIT 4 - 3 CHW (PIT) Confidence: 52.8% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
PIT	0	2	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	4	7
CHW	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	4

PIT Recent Form

Win%0.800

Avg Runs4.9

Avg Allowed3.6

Run Diff13

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak3W

CHW Recent Form

Win%0.300

Avg Runs3.4

Avg Allowed4.1

Run Diff-7

Off Trendcold

Def Trendaverage

Streak2L

PIT Season Quality

Record73-73

Win%0.500

Run Diff34

RD/Game0.233

CHW Season Quality

Record75-70

Win%0.517

Run Diff41

RD/Game0.283

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.2308; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Konnor Griffin	DH	63	244	65	0.266	5	27	0.325	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.261	0.315	0.373	OK
Oneil Cruz	CF	82	319	86	0.270	17	60	0.358	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.274	0.340	0.406	OK
Bryan Reynolds	LF	143	529	142	0.268	16	69	0.374	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.291	0.370	0.474	OK
Nick Gonzales	3B	131	497	150	0.302	4	57	0.364	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.265	0.313	0.336	OK
Brandon Lowe	2B	133	520	134	0.258	29	83	0.327	4	3	2	1	1	1	1	0.667	0.300	0.364	0.471	OK
Rafael Flores Jr.	C	31	103	25	0.243	8	19	0.310	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.250	0.304	0.463	OK
Jake Mangum	RF	109	383	111	0.290	4	30	0.343	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.294	0.331	0.385	OK
Spencer Horwitz	1B	103	355	87	0.245	10	44	0.345	4	4	1	0	0	0	1	0.250	0.221	0.312	0.305	OK
Jared Triolo	SS	97	294	73	0.248	3	28	0.321	4	4	1	1	1	0	1	0.250	0.188	0.254	0.248	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	34	7	4	4	2	7	0.206

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Sam Antonacci	LF	124	431	115	0.267	8	44	0.365	4	3	0	0	0	1	3	0.000	0.267	0.334	0.393	OK
Miguel Vargas	3B	142	530	132	0.249	30	79	0.358	4	2	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.208	0.307	0.376	OK
Munetaka Murakami	1B	110	396	83	0.210	31	63	0.349	4	4	1	1	3	0	2	0.250	0.194	0.319	0.455	OK
Andrew Benintendi	DH	128	389	95	0.244	14	70	0.306	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.226	0.297	0.398	OK
Colson Montgomery	SS	137	518	108	0.208	31	83	0.288	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.179	0.242	0.411	OK
Braden Montgomery	RF	76	274	61	0.223	6	37	0.318	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.213	0.312	0.358	OK
Chase Meidroth	2B	138	514	138	0.268	12	51	0.342	4	3	1	1	0	1	1	0.333	0.226	0.300	0.318	OK
Tristan Peters	CF	133	396	112	0.283	12	53	0.344	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.292	0.336	0.453	OK
Jake Rogers	C	5	17	2	0.118	1	2	0.211	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.178	0.275	0.331	OK
TEAM TOTALS									35	31	4	3	3	4	11	0.129

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jared Jones	Starter	17	77.5	4.53	1.252	10.7	92	4.2	2	3	3	2	4	84	4.2	4	3
Mason Montgomery	Closer	61	53.2	2.88	1.147	15.9	94	1.1	0	0	0	0	1	17	1.1	1	0
Luke Weaver	Setup Man	11	9.4	6.70	1.809	11.5	12	1.0	0	0	0	1	2	17	1.0	2	0
Gregory Soto	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	61	56.2	2.88	1.103	11.4	71	1.0	0	0	0	1	3	17	1.0	3	0
Yohan Ramírez	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	60	71.0	3.42	1.380	11.5	91	1.0	2	0	0	0	1	19	1.0	1	0

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Hagen Smith	Starter	9	14.6	0.00	0.959	14.2	23	4.2	4	1	1	2	4	86	4.2	4	1
Grant Taylor	Closer	41	51.9	2.60	1.118	13.2	76	1.1	0	2	2	0	1	17	1.1	1	2
Sean Newcomb	Setup Man	46	60.2	2.84	1.246	9.6	64	1.1	1	1	1	0	0	20	1.1	0	1
Bryan Hudson	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	60	52.8	2.90	1.307	9.4	55	1.0	0	0	0	0	2	13	1.0	2	0
Jordan Hicks	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	42	33.7	4.54	1.780	13.1	49	0.2	2	0	0	0	0	14	0.2	0	0

Game Summary

PIT wins 4-3

Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves

TB 87-59 (4.53 RPG / 4.15 RA)

6 - 5

ATL 86-62 (4.55 RPG / 3.84 RA)

WINNER: TB wins 6-5 TARGET: TB 6 - 5 ATL (TB) Confidence: 50.6% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TB	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	2	6	10
ATL	0	0	2	0	0	0	1	0	2	5	10

TB Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs5.0

Avg Allowed4.5

Run Diff5

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak2W

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs3.5

Avg Allowed4.3

Run Diff-8

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendaverage

Streak3L

TB Season Quality

Record87-58

Win%0.600

Run Diff58

RD/Game0.400

ATL Season Quality

Record85-61

Win%0.582

Run Diff108

RD/Game0.740

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.0579; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Yandy Díaz	DH	139	553	170	0.307	22	80	0.374	5	5	2	1	1	0	1	0.400	0.306	0.356	0.461	OK
Ryan Vilade	1B	77	206	54	0.262	11	38	0.328	5	3	0	0	0	2	0	0.000	0.263	0.337	0.465	OK
Junior Caminero	3B	144	551	155	0.281	39	93	0.368	5	5	0	0	0	0	3	0.000	0.274	0.348	0.506	OK
Jonny DeLuca	RF	88	295	77	0.261	9	43	0.294	4	4	2	1	0	0	1	0.500	0.219	0.252	0.339	OK
Chandler Simpson	LF	133	517	160	0.309	0	31	0.336	4	4	0	1	1	0	1	0.000	0.306	0.335	0.350	OK
Nick Madrigal	2B	0	0	0	0.000	0	0	0.000	4	4	2	0	0	0	0	0.500	0.264	0.360	0.304
Jorge Mateo	SS	15	47	7	0.149	1	7	0.196	4	4	2	1	1	0	0	0.500	0.183	0.223	0.267	OK
Nick Fortes	C	90	270	72	0.267	4	31	0.307	4	4	1	1	2	0	1	0.250	0.254	0.279	0.351	OK
Cedric Mullins	CF	121	408	84	0.206	14	45	0.289	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.199	0.277	0.297	OK
TEAM TOTALS									39	37	10	6	6	2	7	0.270

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Drake Baldwin	C	122	477	132	0.277	23	71	0.354	5	4	1	1	2	1	2	0.250	0.261	0.320	0.434	OK
Ronald Acuña Jr.	RF	92	349	89	0.255	16	45	0.349	5	5	1	1	0	0	1	0.200	0.271	0.344	0.493	OK
Matt Olson	1B	145	558	138	0.247	36	79	0.322	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.190	0.266	0.362	OK
Michael Harris II	CF	139	527	153	0.290	24	80	0.316	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.222	0.247	0.369	OK
Mauricio Dubón	2B	137	509	136	0.267	11	66	0.311	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.254	0.292	0.369	OK
Lane Thomas	LF	18	41	7	0.171	1	3	0.244	4	4	3	1	0	0	1	0.750	0.170	0.264	0.290	OK
Austin Riley	3B	143	506	113	0.223	16	66	0.295	4	4	3	1	3	0	0	0.750	0.214	0.265	0.382	OK
Brewer Hicklen	DH	7	22	8	0.364	0	3	0.462	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.340	0.434	0.513	OK
Ha-Seong Kim	SS	34	100	11	0.110	0	6	0.198	4	4	1	0	0	0	0	0.250	0.150	0.222	0.197	OK
TEAM TOTALS									38	37	10	5	5	1	10	0.270

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Nick Martinez	Starter	27	156.5	3.11	1.125	5.5	95	6.0	5	2	2	0	5	99	6.0	5	2
Bryan Baker	Closer	57	54.6	1.48	0.879	9.9	60	1.0	2	1	1	0	2	19	1.0	2	1
Kevin Kelly	Setup Man	64	57.4	2.51	0.993	8.5	54	1.0	1	0	0	0	3	16	1.0	3	0
Tyler Wells	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	12	15.3	1.76	0.719	9.4	16	1.0	2	2	2	1	0	23	1.0	0	2

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Martín Pérez	Starter	27	122.1	3.32	1.294	6.9	94	5.2	4	2	2	1	4	95	5.2	4	2
Raisel Iglesias	Closer	52	50.9	2.83	1.198	9.7	55	1.0	3	2	2	0	1	22	1.0	1	2
Dylan Lee	Setup Man	65	54.3	2.65	0.939	12.4	75	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0
Didier Fuentes	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	51	59.3	2.58	1.164	12.6	83	1.1	3	2	2	1	1	30	1.1	1	2

Game Summary

TB wins 6-5

Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners

TEX 72-75 (4.15 RPG / 4.43 RA)

4 - 5

SEA 69-78 (3.95 RPG / 4.46 RA)

WINNER: SEA wins 5-4 TARGET: TEX 4 - 5 SEA (SEA) Confidence: 52.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength

	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	R	H
TEX	0	0	3	0	0	0	0	1	0	4	6
SEA	0	1	0	0	0	0	4	0	x	5	5

TEX Recent Form

Win%0.600

Avg Runs6.0

Avg Allowed4.6

Run Diff14

Off Trendhot

Def Trendaverage

Streak1L

SEA Recent Form

Win%0.400

Avg Runs4.7

Avg Allowed5.7

Run Diff-10

Off Trendaverage

Def Trendweak

Streak1W

TEX Season Quality

Record72-74

Win%0.493

Run Diff-40

RD/Game-0.274

SEA Season Quality

Record68-78

Win%0.466

Run Diff-75

RD/Game-0.514

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.3715; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
Joc Pederson	DH	130	364	85	0.234	25	50	0.324	4	4	1	1	1	0	0	0.250	0.150	0.239	0.334	OK
Corey Seager	SS	85	317	73	0.230	17	40	0.325	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.260	0.337	0.552	OK
Ezequiel Duran	3B	135	481	131	0.272	17	78	0.333	4	3	0	0	0	1	0	0.000	0.266	0.325	0.446	OK
Brandon Nimmo	RF	140	536	141	0.263	14	58	0.327	4	4	2	1	3	0	1	0.500	0.248	0.295	0.374	OK
Wyatt Langford	LF	94	359	87	0.242	16	38	0.328	4	3	0	0	0	1	1	0.000	0.182	0.272	0.347	OK
Evan Carter	CF	124	357	70	0.196	9	35	0.287	4	4	1	1	0	0	1	0.250	0.162	0.241	0.291	OK
Jake Burger	1B	138	500	119	0.238	26	83	0.306	4	3	0	0	0	1	2	0.000	0.229	0.319	0.500	OK
Nicky Lopez	2B	76	205	57	0.278	1	22	0.323	4	4	1	0	0	0	2	0.250	0.194	0.230	0.242	OK
Danny Jansen	C	51	157	28	0.178	6	20	0.267	4	4	0	0	0	0	0	0.000	0.210	0.268	0.421	OK
TEAM TOTALS									36	33	6	4	4	3	8	0.182

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Player	Pos	Actual 2026 Season							Simulated Game								Model Prediction			Deviation
Player	Pos	G	AB	H	AVG	HR	RBI	OBP	PA	AB	H	R	RBI	BB	SO	AVG	AVG	OBP	SLG	Deviation
J.P. Crawford	SS	100	349	77	0.221	10	33	0.344	4	4	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.224	0.347	0.317	OK
Randy Arozarena	LF	138	512	140	0.273	22	67	0.371	4	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.266	0.338	0.426	OK
Dominic Canzone	DH	128	414	105	0.254	21	65	0.322	4	3	0	1	0	1	1	0.000	0.225	0.272	0.391	OK
Cal Raleigh	C	110	394	72	0.183	21	59	0.295	4	3	1	1	1	1	0	0.333	0.255	0.348	0.472	OK
Julio Rodríguez	CF	134	536	128	0.239	20	61	0.297	4	4	0	0	0	0	2	0.000	0.195	0.238	0.293	OK
Josh Naylor	1B	136	532	142	0.267	10	49	0.324	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0.333	0.252	0.296	0.325	OK
Cole Young	2B	144	526	130	0.247	16	60	0.311	3	3	1	1	0	0	0	0.333	0.247	0.296	0.358	OK
Lazaro Montes	RF	7	19	5	0.263	2	6	0.300	3	3	2	1	4	0	1	0.667	0.168	0.208	0.355	OK
Brock Rodden	3B	17	51	12	0.235	0	4	0.333	3	3	0	0	0	0	1	0.000	0.241	0.340	0.342	OK
TEAM TOTALS									32	29	5	5	5	2	7	0.172

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Jacob deGrom	Starter	27	141.0	4.02	1.135	11.1	174	5.0	1	1	1	1	6	82	5.0	6	1
Jacob Latz	Closer	50	59.6	1.51	0.755	10.6	70	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
Jakob Junis	Setup Man	46	45.6	2.96	1.228	6.9	35	1.0	4	4	4	0	0	25	1.0	0	4
Chase Silseth	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	17	12.1	3.72	1.736	11.2	15	1.0	0	0	0	1	1	21	1.0	1	0

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Pitcher	Role	Actual 2026 Season						Simulated Game							Model Prediction
Pitcher	Role	G	IP	ERA	WHIP	K/9	SO	IP	H	R	ER	BB	SO	P	IP	SO	ER
Logan Gilbert	Starter	28	160.8	3.81	1.095	9.9	176	5.2	4	3	3	3	6	107	5.2	6	3
Andrés Muñoz	Closer	55	50.3	3.94	1.173	15.2	85	1.0	0	0	0	0	0	13	1.0	0	0
José A. Ferrer	Setup Man	65	51.5	4.37	1.612	8.4	48	1.1	2	1	1	0	1	23	1.1	1	1
Eduard Bazardo	Middle Reliever (High Leverage)	67	52.3	4.65	1.740	11.0	64	1.0	0	0	0	0	1	13	1.0	1	0

Game Summary

SEA wins 5-4

MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

All Games Overview

Colorado Rockies @ New York Yankees

COL Recent Form

NYY Recent Form

COL Season Quality

NYY Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

COL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYY Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

COL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

NYY Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Houston Astros @ Philadelphia Phillies

HOU Recent Form

PHI Recent Form

HOU Season Quality

PHI Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

HOU Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

HOU Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago White Sox

PIT Recent Form

CHW Recent Form

PIT Season Quality

CHW Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

PIT Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHW Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PIT Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

CHW Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Tampa Bay Rays @ Atlanta Braves

TB Recent Form

ATL Recent Form

TB Season Quality

ATL Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

TB Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TB Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary

Texas Rangers @ Seattle Mariners

TEX Recent Form

SEA Recent Form

TEX Season Quality

SEA Season Quality

Season Run Differential Signal

TEX Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SEA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

TEX Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

SEA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

Game Summary