| Matchup | Target Score | Sim Score | Target Winner | Sim Winner | Winner | Confidence | Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI @ KC | 3 - 5 | 3 - 5 | KC | KC | KC wins 5-3 | 58% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| ATL @ PHI | 3 - 4 | 3 - 4 | PHI | PHI | PHI wins 4-3 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| CHC @ MIL | 5 - 7 | 5 - 7 | MIL | MIL | MIL wins 7-5 | 51% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| CIN @ LAD | 5 - 6 | 5 - 6 | LAD | LAD | LAD wins 6-5 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| CLE @ BAL | 3 - 4 | 3 - 4 | BAL | BAL | BAL wins 4-3 | 51% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| LAA @ BOS | 3 - 5 | 3 - 5 | BOS | BOS | BOS wins 5-3 | 62% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| MIN @ DET | 5 - 4 | 5 - 4 | MIN | MIN | MIN wins 5-4 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| NYM @ MIA | 4 - 5 | 4 - 5 | MIA | MIA | MIA wins 5-4 | 52% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| STL @ SF | 7 - 5 | 7 - 5 | STL | STL | STL wins 7-5 | 63% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| TOR @ OAK | 6 - 2 | 6 - 2 | TOR | TOR | TOR wins 6-2 | 70% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| WAS @ SD | 5 - 6 | 5 - 6 | SD | SD | SD wins 6-5 | 53% | enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength |
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| KC | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | x | 5 | 9 |
Quality edge: -0.4026; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Geraldo Perdomo | SS | 139 | 497 | 125 | 0.252 | 9 | 48 | 0.359 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.272 | 0.370 | 0.363 | OK |
| Corbin Carroll | RF | 140 | 524 | 126 | 0.240 | 19 | 61 | 0.335 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.215 | 0.287 | 0.404 | OK |
| Gabriel Moreno | C | 113 | 407 | 122 | 0.300 | 12 | 69 | 0.378 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.272 | 0.345 | 0.478 | OK |
| Ketel Marte | DH | 122 | 487 | 122 | 0.251 | 22 | 68 | 0.315 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.262 | 0.325 | 0.466 | OK |
| Nolan Arenado | 3B | 134 | 468 | 109 | 0.233 | 22 | 67 | 0.307 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.201 | 0.257 | 0.378 | OK |
| Ildemaro Vargas | 2B | 119 | 419 | 105 | 0.251 | 9 | 66 | 0.288 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.241 | 0.273 | 0.352 | OK |
| Lourdes Gurriel Jr. | LF | 47 | 174 | 36 | 0.207 | 2 | 21 | 0.254 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.183 | 0.223 | 0.261 | OK |
| Tim Tawa | 1B | 80 | 255 | 61 | 0.239 | 9 | 35 | 0.296 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.178 | 0.247 | 0.286 | OK |
| Jordan Lawlar | CF | 26 | 81 | 21 | 0.259 | 4 | 10 | 0.326 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.243 | 0.269 | 0.409 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 33 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 0.212 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Carter Jensen | C | 131 | 465 | 107 | 0.230 | 22 | 67 | 0.316 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.263 | 0.335 | 0.551 | OK |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | SS | 124 | 485 | 138 | 0.285 | 17 | 50 | 0.359 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.259 | 0.335 | 0.442 | OK |
| Jac Caglianone | RF | 130 | 471 | 132 | 0.280 | 23 | 70 | 0.328 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.000 | 0.277 | 0.317 | 0.454 | OK |
| Salvador Perez | DH | 133 | 513 | 117 | 0.228 | 19 | 68 | 0.273 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.273 | 0.299 | 0.478 | OK |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | 1B | 96 | 355 | 85 | 0.239 | 11 | 46 | 0.330 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.214 | 0.300 | 0.423 | OK |
| Nick Loftin | 3B | 102 | 324 | 78 | 0.241 | 7 | 42 | 0.324 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.255 | 0.322 | 0.386 | OK |
| Michael Massey | 2B | 111 | 354 | 99 | 0.280 | 11 | 45 | 0.314 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.281 | 0.323 | 0.420 | OK |
| Isaac Collins | LF | 126 | 399 | 89 | 0.223 | 6 | 40 | 0.325 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.159 | 0.269 | 0.273 | OK |
| Kyle Isbel | CF | 81 | 249 | 56 | 0.225 | 6 | 24 | 0.272 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.200 | 0.238 | 0.277 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 33 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 0.273 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jose Cabrera | Starter | 6 | 23.3 | 5.02 | 1.373 | 6.6 | 17 | 4.2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 84 | 4.2 | 5 | 2 |
| Brandyn Garcia | Closer | 36 | 26.8 | 2.01 | 0.784 | 12.1 | 36 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 35 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Juan Morillo | Setup Man | 48 | 40.4 | 2.90 | 1.114 | 12.3 | 55 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 19 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 |
| Jonathan Loáisiga | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 48 | 40.8 | 3.09 | 1.225 | 7.1 | 32 | 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 22 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Noah Cameron | Starter | 27 | 152.0 | 4.14 | 1.237 | 8.2 | 138 | 6.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 92 | 6.0 | 4 | 1 |
| Steven Cruz | Closer | 50 | 48.0 | 4.69 | 1.354 | 10.7 | 57 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Nate Pearson | Setup Man | 17 | 16.3 | 0.55 | 0.920 | 8.3 | 15 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Craig Kimbrel | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 9 | 8.3 | 0.00 | 0.723 | 6.5 | 6 | 1.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 25 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
KC wins 5-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 |
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | x | 4 | 5 |
Quality edge: -0.39; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | DH | 89 | 338 | 87 | 0.257 | 16 | 45 | 0.352 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.290 | 0.367 | 0.518 | OK |
| Drake Baldwin | C | 119 | 466 | 130 | 0.279 | 22 | 69 | 0.357 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.271 | 0.323 | 0.408 | OK |
| Ozzie Albies | 2B | 142 | 541 | 138 | 0.255 | 21 | 68 | 0.310 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.232 | 0.280 | 0.383 | OK |
| Matt Olson | 1B | 142 | 549 | 136 | 0.248 | 36 | 78 | 0.322 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.182 | 0.251 | 0.359 | OK |
| Lane Thomas | RF | 17 | 38 | 7 | 0.184 | 1 | 3 | 0.262 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.214 | 0.305 | 0.361 | OK |
| Michael Harris II | CF | 136 | 517 | 152 | 0.294 | 24 | 80 | 0.319 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.256 | 0.279 | 0.468 | OK |
| Mauricio Dubón | LF | 134 | 498 | 134 | 0.269 | 11 | 66 | 0.313 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.252 | 0.289 | 0.384 | OK |
| Austin Riley | 3B | 140 | 498 | 112 | 0.225 | 16 | 66 | 0.296 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.222 | 0.275 | 0.391 | OK |
| Ha-Seong Kim | SS | 33 | 97 | 11 | 0.113 | 0 | 6 | 0.204 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.150 | 0.224 | 0.185 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 35 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Kyle Schwarber | DH | 135 | 509 | 122 | 0.240 | 41 | 85 | 0.354 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.235 | 0.343 | 0.535 | OK |
| Trea Turner | SS | 135 | 564 | 136 | 0.241 | 17 | 52 | 0.292 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.215 | 0.262 | 0.320 | OK |
| Bryce Harper | RF | 141 | 499 | 136 | 0.273 | 27 | 80 | 0.390 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.285 | 0.399 | 0.485 | OK |
| Luis Arraez | 2B | 29 | 118 | 35 | 0.297 | 2 | 13 | 0.309 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.308 | 0.339 | 0.402 | OK |
| Alec Bohm | 1B | 134 | 503 | 124 | 0.247 | 15 | 79 | 0.309 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.245 | 0.308 | 0.404 | OK |
| Bryson Stott | 3B | 135 | 470 | 119 | 0.253 | 10 | 60 | 0.328 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.231 | 0.301 | 0.374 | OK |
| Brandon Marsh | LF | 134 | 476 | 127 | 0.267 | 17 | 57 | 0.313 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.174 | 0.223 | 0.277 | OK |
| J.T. Realmuto | C | 104 | 356 | 78 | 0.219 | 10 | 46 | 0.294 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.212 | 0.283 | 0.362 | OK |
| Justin Crawford | CF | 126 | 371 | 96 | 0.259 | 2 | 34 | 0.308 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.210 | 0.259 | 0.279 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 30 | 29 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 0.172 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Grant Holmes | Starter | 28 | 130.4 | 3.87 | 1.373 | 7.3 | 106 | 4.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 80 | 4.2 | 6 | 2 |
| Raisel Iglesias | Closer | 52 | 50.9 | 2.83 | 1.198 | 9.7 | 55 | 1.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 27 | 1.2 | 0 | 2 |
| Dylan Lee | Setup Man | 65 | 54.3 | 2.65 | 0.939 | 12.4 | 75 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jesús Luzardo | Starter | 28 | 165.0 | 3.11 | 1.152 | 11.4 | 209 | 6.1 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 98 | 6.1 | 5 | 2 |
| Jhoan Duran | Closer | 53 | 51.4 | 1.40 | 1.012 | 12.6 | 72 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jonathan Bowlan | Setup Man | 55 | 48.8 | 3.32 | 1.066 | 12.4 | 67 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Orion Kerkering | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 59 | 47.9 | 4.70 | 1.482 | 10.7 | 57 | 0.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 0.2 | 0 | 1 |
PHI wins 4-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 8 |
| MIL | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | x | 7 | 12 |
Quality edge: 0.1133; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Pete Crow-Armstrong | CF | 142 | 546 | 154 | 0.282 | 40 | 96 | 0.376 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.277 | 0.354 | 0.646 | OK |
| Seiya Suzuki | DH | 125 | 475 | 130 | 0.274 | 24 | 80 | 0.372 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.262 | 0.369 | 0.463 | OK |
| Alex Bregman | 3B | 140 | 555 | 145 | 0.261 | 24 | 81 | 0.350 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.266 | 0.347 | 0.548 | OK |
| Tyrone Taylor | LF | 18 | 52 | 21 | 0.404 | 1 | 7 | 0.456 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.330 | 0.367 | 0.563 | OK |
| Nico Hoerner | SS | 139 | 553 | 148 | 0.268 | 8 | 64 | 0.318 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.286 | 0.328 | 0.373 | OK |
| Matt Shaw | RF | 55 | 144 | 36 | 0.250 | 5 | 21 | 0.323 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.147 | 0.238 | 0.333 | OK |
| Carson Kelly | C | 100 | 339 | 88 | 0.260 | 10 | 51 | 0.338 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.238 | 0.303 | 0.376 | OK |
| BJ Murray Jr. | 1B | 3 | 6 | 1 | 0.167 | 0 | 0 | 0.167 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.185 | 0.198 | 0.221 | OK |
| Pedro Ramirez | 2B | 61 | 183 | 49 | 0.268 | 4 | 26 | 0.327 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.205 | 0.267 | 0.340 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 35 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 0.229 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Jackson Chourio | LF | 107 | 446 | 127 | 0.285 | 21 | 59 | 0.344 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.600 | 0.245 | 0.296 | 0.422 | OK |
| Brice Turang | 2B | 130 | 509 | 134 | 0.263 | 17 | 86 | 0.354 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.280 | 0.356 | 0.432 | OK |
| William Contreras | C | 130 | 504 | 136 | 0.270 | 14 | 73 | 0.339 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.267 | 0.321 | 0.470 | OK |
| Andrew Vaughn | 1B | 91 | 264 | 83 | 0.314 | 6 | 42 | 0.394 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.211 | 0.294 | 0.356 | OK |
| Christian Yelich | DH | 99 | 375 | 88 | 0.235 | 10 | 47 | 0.319 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.262 | 0.336 | 0.400 | OK |
| Luis Lara | RF | 42 | 138 | 36 | 0.261 | 1 | 21 | 0.331 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.259 | 0.328 | 0.352 | OK |
| Cooper Pratt | SS | 54 | 171 | 46 | 0.269 | 3 | 28 | 0.337 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.270 | 0.344 | 0.387 | OK |
| Garrett Mitchell | CF | 120 | 393 | 101 | 0.257 | 8 | 49 | 0.345 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.750 | 0.288 | 0.355 | 0.448 | OK |
| Joey Ortiz | 3B | 102 | 310 | 78 | 0.252 | 8 | 41 | 0.315 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.262 | 0.327 | 0.404 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 36 | 12 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 6 | 0.333 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Matthew Boyd | Starter | 18 | 99.3 | 4.17 | 1.269 | 7.2 | 79 | 5.2 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 112 | 5.2 | 4 | 4 |
| Jacob Webb | Closer | 61 | 54.4 | 3.47 | 1.360 | 10.8 | 65 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Trent Thornton | Setup Man | 44 | 39.6 | 3.86 | 1.389 | 6.4 | 28 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Zeferjahn | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 13 | 10.1 | 7.13 | 1.782 | 10.7 | 12 | 0.1 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 0.1 | 1 | 3 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Robert Gasser | Starter | 17 | 83.4 | 4.75 | 1.343 | 8.8 | 82 | 5.0 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 78 | 5.0 | 5 | 4 |
| Trevor Megill | Closer | 54 | 53.4 | 1.52 | 0.805 | 10.4 | 62 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Abner Uribe | Setup Man | 52 | 46.7 | 2.12 | 1.071 | 10.0 | 52 | 1.0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 23 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Aaron Ashby | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 67 | 72.0 | 3.50 | 1.486 | 13.6 | 109 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
MIL wins 7-5
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| LAD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
Quality edge: 1.2463; margin adjustment: 0.5234; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Héctor Rodríguez | RF | 25 | 87 | 23 | 0.264 | 5 | 12 | 0.326 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.268 | 0.319 | 0.468 | OK |
| Elly De La Cruz | SS | 121 | 477 | 135 | 0.283 | 23 | 66 | 0.365 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.342 | 0.411 | 0.607 | OK |
| Sal Stewart | 1B | 140 | 538 | 144 | 0.268 | 30 | 104 | 0.337 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.267 | 0.332 | 0.429 | OK |
| JJ Bleday | LF | 111 | 398 | 89 | 0.224 | 22 | 55 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.212 | 0.316 | 0.392 | OK |
| Tyler Stephenson | C | 110 | 359 | 90 | 0.251 | 15 | 52 | 0.331 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.235 | 0.312 | 0.417 | OK |
| Eugenio Suárez | DH | 108 | 377 | 80 | 0.212 | 21 | 62 | 0.306 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.211 | 0.304 | 0.408 | OK |
| Matt McLain | 2B | 113 | 387 | 74 | 0.191 | 15 | 39 | 0.284 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.182 | 0.262 | 0.376 | OK |
| Carlos Jorge | CF | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.185 | 0.196 | 0.290 | |
| Ke'Bryan Hayes | 3B | 64 | 194 | 30 | 0.155 | 5 | 8 | 0.215 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.177 | 0.239 | 0.276 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 33 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Shohei Ohtani | DH | 128 | 494 | 137 | 0.277 | 30 | 78 | 0.381 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.257 | 0.359 | 0.472 | OK |
| Freddie Freeman | 1B | 137 | 514 | 155 | 0.302 | 16 | 64 | 0.380 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.268 | 0.359 | 0.430 | OK |
| Tommy Edman | 2B | 62 | 227 | 62 | 0.273 | 6 | 31 | 0.345 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.282 | 0.322 | 0.442 | OK |
| Max Muncy | 3B | 129 | 421 | 104 | 0.247 | 26 | 68 | 0.344 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.276 | 0.369 | 0.457 | OK |
| Teoscar Hernández | LF | 105 | 373 | 96 | 0.257 | 12 | 51 | 0.322 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.294 | 0.361 | 0.456 | OK |
| Kyle Tucker | RF | 131 | 470 | 105 | 0.223 | 12 | 59 | 0.319 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.180 | 0.291 | 0.321 | OK |
| Hunter Feduccia | C | 20 | 50 | 13 | 0.260 | 1 | 5 | 0.339 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.163 | 0.239 | 0.260 | OK |
| Alex Call | CF | 64 | 146 | 37 | 0.253 | 1 | 19 | 0.347 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.260 | 0.338 | 0.344 | OK |
| Alex Freeland | SS | 76 | 206 | 46 | 0.223 | 3 | 19 | 0.305 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.212 | 0.305 | 0.283 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 36 | 10 | 6 | 6 | 4 | 10 | 0.278 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Chase Burns | Starter | 26 | 143.0 | 2.83 | 1.175 | 10.8 | 171 | 5.2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 113 | 5.2 | 8 | 3 |
| Luis Mey | Setup Man | 20 | 24.6 | 4.02 | 1.504 | 13.9 | 38 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 32 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brock Burke | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 71 | 59.0 | 2.90 | 1.508 | 10.8 | 71 | 1.2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 1.0 | 2 | 3 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Emmet Sheehan | Starter | 20 | 91.6 | 5.50 | 1.343 | 10.6 | 108 | 5.0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 83 | 5.0 | 5 | 2 |
| Tanner Scott | Closer | 62 | 52.2 | 2.93 | 1.073 | 12.1 | 70 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 24 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 |
| Edgardo Henriquez | Setup Man | 58 | 50.2 | 3.05 | 1.096 | 12.2 | 68 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Brock Stewart | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 22 | 19.1 | 2.83 | 1.099 | 9.0 | 19 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
LAD wins 6-5
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 |
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 |
Quality edge: -0.1158; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Steven Kwan | LF | 129 | 465 | 126 | 0.271 | 2 | 27 | 0.368 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.261 | 0.346 | 0.328 | OK |
| Jo Adell | DH | 30 | 109 | 25 | 0.229 | 4 | 22 | 0.312 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.226 | 0.266 | 0.365 | OK |
| José Ramírez | 3B | 106 | 397 | 94 | 0.237 | 11 | 48 | 0.330 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.195 | 0.275 | 0.309 | OK |
| Angel Martínez | RF | 93 | 334 | 81 | 0.243 | 14 | 50 | 0.282 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.200 | 0.228 | 0.261 | 0.401 | OK |
| David Fry | 1B | 72 | 153 | 30 | 0.196 | 6 | 13 | 0.293 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.217 | 0.307 | 0.353 | OK |
| Angel Genao | 2B | 27 | 98 | 24 | 0.245 | 2 | 6 | 0.295 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.237 | 0.281 | 0.342 | OK |
| Austin Hedges | C | 66 | 191 | 48 | 0.251 | 5 | 23 | 0.322 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.207 | 0.281 | 0.305 | OK |
| Petey Halpin | CF | 56 | 147 | 30 | 0.204 | 3 | 9 | 0.244 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.178 | 0.214 | 0.283 | OK |
| Brayan Rocchio | SS | 134 | 471 | 117 | 0.248 | 13 | 59 | 0.306 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.249 | 0.293 | 0.510 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 42 | 37 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 8 | 0.189 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Blaze Alexander | RF | 79 | 250 | 77 | 0.308 | 4 | 30 | 0.358 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.303 | 0.341 | 0.395 | OK |
| Pete Alonso | 1B | 141 | 528 | 142 | 0.269 | 33 | 94 | 0.359 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0.400 | 0.242 | 0.326 | 0.445 | OK |
| Jackson Holliday | 2B | 86 | 279 | 64 | 0.229 | 7 | 28 | 0.300 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.212 | 0.272 | 0.350 | OK |
| Coby Mayo | 3B | 108 | 343 | 77 | 0.224 | 19 | 55 | 0.288 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.249 | 0.299 | 0.453 | OK |
| Gunnar Henderson | SS | 139 | 555 | 122 | 0.220 | 21 | 56 | 0.304 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.219 | 0.299 | 0.393 | OK |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | DH | 41 | 138 | 35 | 0.254 | 7 | 29 | 0.297 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.253 | 0.297 | 0.467 | OK |
| Samuel Basallo | C | 98 | 327 | 74 | 0.226 | 17 | 50 | 0.292 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.187 | 0.255 | 0.338 | OK |
| Rece Hinds | CF | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.333 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.148 | 0.174 | 0.264 | OK |
| Dylan Beavers | LF | 83 | 255 | 63 | 0.247 | 6 | 31 | 0.320 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.138 | 0.216 | 0.251 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 39 | 39 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 12 | 0.231 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Joey Cantillo | Starter | 29 | 138.4 | 3.90 | 1.510 | 9.8 | 151 | 4.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 77 | 4.2 | 6 | 2 |
| Cade Smith | Closer | 60 | 60.5 | 2.38 | 1.107 | 13.8 | 93 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 20 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Hunter Gaddis | Setup Man | 57 | 42.5 | 3.18 | 1.365 | 10.2 | 48 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Erik Sabrowski | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 51 | 33.7 | 3.20 | 1.335 | 17.9 | 67 | 1.0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 22 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Tim Herrin | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 59 | 38.7 | 3.95 | 1.602 | 10.5 | 45 | 0.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 0.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Daniel Espino | Reliever | 7 | 7.3 | 3.70 | 1.370 | 18.5 | 15 | 1.2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 29 | 0.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Trevor Rogers | Starter | 26 | 140.6 | 4.42 | 1.266 | 8.4 | 132 | 5.2 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 113 | 5.2 | 3 | 3 |
| Andrew Kittredge | Closer | 50 | 39.8 | 3.62 | 1.533 | 8.4 | 37 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Rico Garcia | Setup Man | 66 | 52.3 | 2.93 | 1.033 | 10.7 | 62 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 29 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Yennier Cano | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 59 | 35.8 | 3.02 | 1.117 | 10.3 | 41 | 0.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Josh Walker | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 22 | 17.1 | 2.63 | 1.696 | 12.1 | 23 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 16 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
BAL wins 4-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| BOS | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | x | 5 | 6 |
Quality edge: 1.0127; margin adjustment: 0.4253; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Zach Neto | SS | 138 | 550 | 131 | 0.238 | 23 | 67 | 0.318 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.238 | 0.297 | 0.394 | OK |
| Mike Trout | DH | 124 | 452 | 110 | 0.243 | 20 | 51 | 0.377 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.236 | 0.342 | 0.390 | OK |
| Wade Meckler | LF | 74 | 239 | 71 | 0.297 | 3 | 25 | 0.364 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.287 | 0.347 | 0.380 | OK |
| Vaughn Grissom | 3B | 97 | 354 | 87 | 0.246 | 10 | 58 | 0.304 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.228 | 0.270 | 0.365 | OK |
| Moisés Ballesteros | 1B | 29 | 109 | 19 | 0.174 | 1 | 7 | 0.224 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.197 | 0.257 | 0.310 | OK |
| Christian Moore | 2B | 20 | 72 | 12 | 0.167 | 1 | 6 | 0.228 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.158 | 0.208 | 0.283 | OK |
| Josh Lowe | RF | 92 | 268 | 56 | 0.209 | 11 | 28 | 0.275 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.200 | 0.287 | 0.353 | OK |
| Kyren Paris | CF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.227 | 0.288 | 0.374 | |
| Tyler Heineman | C | 28 | 77 | 15 | 0.195 | 0 | 3 | 0.244 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.145 | 0.169 | 0.210 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 38 | 35 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 0.257 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Roman Anthony | DH | 38 | 144 | 35 | 0.243 | 3 | 7 | 0.355 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.248 | 0.349 | 0.409 | OK |
| Mickey Gasper | 1B | 51 | 156 | 43 | 0.276 | 8 | 22 | 0.380 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.282 | 0.380 | 0.531 | OK |
| Adley Rutschman | C | 18 | 65 | 12 | 0.185 | 3 | 6 | 0.254 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.250 | 0.305 | 0.441 | OK |
| Wilyer Abreu | RF | 138 | 527 | 136 | 0.258 | 23 | 70 | 0.337 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.252 | 0.323 | 0.427 | OK |
| Trevor Story | SS | 48 | 194 | 46 | 0.237 | 3 | 23 | 0.268 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.288 | 0.313 | 0.402 | OK |
| Caleb Durbin | 3B | 131 | 446 | 107 | 0.240 | 12 | 59 | 0.318 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.189 | 0.275 | 0.278 | OK |
| Jarren Duran | LF | 133 | 505 | 101 | 0.200 | 19 | 62 | 0.258 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.162 | 0.215 | 0.284 | OK |
| Isiah Kiner-Falefa | 2B | 44 | 128 | 35 | 0.273 | 2 | 16 | 0.340 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.174 | 0.257 | 0.280 | OK |
| Eli White | CF | 19 | 50 | 14 | 0.280 | 1 | 11 | 0.308 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.263 | 0.296 | 0.443 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 30 | 30 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 0.200 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Grayson Rodriguez | Starter | 16 | 75.1 | 6.23 | 1.571 | 8.6 | 72 | 5.0 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 86 | 5.0 | 5 | 3 |
| Ben Joyce | Closer | 10 | 8.4 | 3.21 | 0.952 | 13.9 | 13 | 2.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 29 | 2.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Ryan Watson | Setup Man | 11 | 8.6 | 3.14 | 1.395 | 12.6 | 12 | 0.2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 0.2 | 1 | 2 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Brayan Bello | Starter | 22 | 94.4 | 5.24 | 1.515 | 6.7 | 70 | 4.1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 75 | 4.1 | 4 | 2 |
| Aroldis Chapman | Closer | 49 | 48.2 | 1.49 | 1.058 | 12.1 | 65 | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 |
| Erik Miller | Setup Man | 13 | 13.1 | 0.69 | 0.992 | 16.5 | 24 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Garrett Whitlock | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 48 | 46.3 | 1.94 | 0.864 | 10.1 | 52 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| Greg Weissert | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 56 | 44.7 | 4.23 | 1.432 | 10.9 | 54 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
BOS wins 5-3
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| DET | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
Quality edge: 0.257; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Luke Keaschall | RF | 133 | 463 | 127 | 0.274 | 9 | 44 | 0.362 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.270 | 0.332 | 0.382 | OK |
| Brooks Lee | 3B | 134 | 512 | 128 | 0.250 | 23 | 78 | 0.297 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.255 | 0.289 | 0.448 | OK |
| Kody Clemens | 2B | 125 | 463 | 110 | 0.238 | 24 | 71 | 0.298 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.234 | 0.292 | 0.457 | OK |
| Ryan Jeffers | C | 76 | 271 | 73 | 0.269 | 14 | 53 | 0.364 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.229 | 0.316 | 0.494 | OK |
| Josh Bell | DH | 137 | 504 | 130 | 0.258 | 18 | 84 | 0.321 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.292 | 0.350 | 0.469 | OK |
| Royce Lewis | 1B | 108 | 397 | 94 | 0.237 | 14 | 51 | 0.304 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.239 | 0.301 | 0.414 | OK |
| Trevor Larnach | LF | 114 | 370 | 97 | 0.262 | 11 | 45 | 0.341 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.239 | 0.310 | 0.398 | OK |
| Kaelen Culpepper | SS | 25 | 91 | 27 | 0.297 | 3 | 10 | 0.350 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.259 | 0.306 | 0.393 | OK |
| Walker Jenkins | CF | 8 | 26 | 3 | 0.115 | 1 | 3 | 0.258 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.135 | 0.266 | 0.289 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 33 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Colt Keith | DH | 127 | 360 | 93 | 0.258 | 9 | 31 | 0.313 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.250 | 0.301 | 0.371 | OK |
| Kevin McGonigle | 3B | 137 | 526 | 143 | 0.272 | 14 | 59 | 0.374 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.257 | 0.360 | 0.379 | OK |
| Gleyber Torres | 2B | 83 | 315 | 85 | 0.270 | 8 | 36 | 0.370 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.281 | 0.360 | 0.368 | OK |
| Riley Greene | LF | 120 | 440 | 122 | 0.277 | 18 | 62 | 0.367 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.271 | 0.346 | 0.519 | OK |
| Dillon Dingler | C | 131 | 498 | 124 | 0.249 | 26 | 83 | 0.310 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.222 | 0.257 | 0.367 | OK |
| Zach McKinstry | RF | 110 | 341 | 72 | 0.211 | 4 | 26 | 0.289 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.174 | 0.232 | 0.250 | OK |
| Spencer Torkelson | 1B | 139 | 473 | 104 | 0.220 | 22 | 65 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.219 | 0.293 | 0.436 | OK |
| Max Clark | CF | 33 | 117 | 30 | 0.256 | 2 | 16 | 0.320 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.264 | 0.314 | 0.418 | OK |
| John Peck | SS | 5 | 19 | 4 | 0.211 | 0 | 3 | 0.286 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.185 | 0.228 | 0.307 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 34 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 9 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Joe Ryan | Starter | 23 | 124.5 | 3.69 | 1.149 | 10.0 | 138 | 5.2 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 108 | 5.2 | 6 | 4 |
| Yoendrys Gómez | Closer | 48 | 38.2 | 2.83 | 1.387 | 10.1 | 43 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 17 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Jeff Hoffman | Setup Man | 12 | 9.6 | 3.75 | 1.667 | 15.0 | 16 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
| A.J. Minter | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 15 | 11.1 | 0.81 | 1.081 | 9.7 | 12 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Troy Melton | Starter | 17 | 100.0 | 2.25 | 1.050 | 7.6 | 84 | 6.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 93 | 6.0 | 5 | 2 |
| Kenley Jansen | Closer | 42 | 35.4 | 3.56 | 1.215 | 11.2 | 44 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Tyler Holton | Setup Man | 62 | 56.5 | 3.35 | 1.504 | 8.4 | 53 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
| Kyle Finnegan | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 57 | 50.4 | 3.75 | 1.687 | 8.2 | 46 | 1.0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 1.0 | 0 | 1 |
MIN wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| MIA | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | x | 5 | 11 |
Quality edge: 0.291; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Francisco Lindor | SS | 84 | 332 | 76 | 0.229 | 16 | 38 | 0.310 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.211 | 0.278 | 0.418 | OK |
| Juan Soto | DH | 90 | 318 | 88 | 0.277 | 23 | 56 | 0.394 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.252 | 0.367 | 0.486 | OK |
| Bo Bichette | 3B | 137 | 545 | 145 | 0.266 | 16 | 71 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.261 | 0.308 | 0.467 | OK |
| Carson Benge | RF | 133 | 510 | 139 | 0.273 | 16 | 53 | 0.332 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.262 | 0.312 | 0.385 | OK |
| Marcus Semien | 2B | 120 | 422 | 94 | 0.223 | 14 | 44 | 0.289 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.223 | 0.300 | 0.328 | OK |
| A.J. Ewing | CF | 100 | 364 | 89 | 0.245 | 8 | 30 | 0.319 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.249 | 0.324 | 0.371 | OK |
| Francisco Alvarez | C | 95 | 316 | 71 | 0.225 | 14 | 34 | 0.309 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.201 | 0.262 | 0.400 | OK |
| Brett Baty | 1B | 118 | 372 | 85 | 0.228 | 9 | 47 | 0.294 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.244 | 0.306 | 0.418 | OK |
| Nick Morabito | LF | 8 | 19 | 2 | 0.105 | 0 | 3 | 0.227 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.137 | 0.184 | 0.212 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 37 | 36 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0.250 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Kyle Stowers | DH | 106 | 391 | 97 | 0.248 | 19 | 60 | 0.336 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.259 | 0.340 | 0.516 | OK |
| Heriberto Hernández | LF | 110 | 374 | 86 | 0.230 | 24 | 63 | 0.310 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.230 | 0.297 | 0.521 | OK |
| Griffin Conine | 1B | 72 | 219 | 56 | 0.256 | 15 | 34 | 0.353 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.260 | 0.347 | 0.473 | OK |
| Otto Lopez | SS | 140 | 560 | 169 | 0.302 | 10 | 63 | 0.339 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.400 | 0.263 | 0.301 | 0.392 | OK |
| Jakob Marsee | CF | 134 | 455 | 96 | 0.211 | 9 | 32 | 0.332 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.222 | 0.322 | 0.364 | OK |
| Javier Sanoja | 2B | 115 | 388 | 112 | 0.289 | 8 | 55 | 0.323 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.302 | 0.338 | 0.472 | OK |
| Owen Caissie | RF | 100 | 282 | 62 | 0.220 | 13 | 55 | 0.279 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.188 | 0.240 | 0.329 | OK |
| Graham Pauley | 3B | 45 | 120 | 23 | 0.192 | 2 | 18 | 0.240 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.169 | 0.232 | 0.353 | OK |
| Joe Mack | C | 87 | 264 | 61 | 0.231 | 12 | 42 | 0.283 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.212 | 0.255 | 0.320 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 35 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 5 | 0.314 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jonah Tong | Starter | 3 | 9.3 | 3.87 | 1.613 | 6.8 | 7 | 3.1 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 70 | 3.1 | 5 | 3 |
| Kodai Senga | Closer | 26 | 54.2 | 7.47 | 1.679 | 11.0 | 66 | 1.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 1.0 | 0 | 2 |
| Daniel Duarte | Setup Man | 21 | 23.2 | 2.33 | 0.862 | 10.1 | 26 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 33 | 2.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Nathan Lavender | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 13 | 9.5 | 0.00 | 0.842 | 14.2 | 15 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 21 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Eury Pérez | Starter | 25 | 133.7 | 3.77 | 1.197 | 9.8 | 145 | 5.1 | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 92 | 5.1 | 1 | 3 |
| Calvin Faucher | Closer | 61 | 52.4 | 4.29 | 1.527 | 11.2 | 65 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 |
| Tyler Zuber | Setup Man | 37 | 27.4 | 5.26 | 1.642 | 11.8 | 36 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Petersen | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 57 | 50.8 | 3.72 | 1.280 | 11.9 | 67 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
MIA wins 5-4
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| SF | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 6 |
Quality edge: -0.5161; margin adjustment: -0.2168; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Bryan Torres | 2B | 53 | 127 | 33 | 0.260 | 3 | 16 | 0.324 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.277 | 0.346 | 0.377 | OK |
| Iván Herrera | C | 140 | 533 | 132 | 0.248 | 15 | 62 | 0.355 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.269 | 0.341 | 0.421 | OK |
| Alec Burleson | 1B | 139 | 535 | 151 | 0.282 | 21 | 100 | 0.343 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.262 | 0.310 | 0.397 | OK |
| Jordan Walker | RF | 137 | 536 | 152 | 0.284 | 26 | 95 | 0.340 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.200 | 0.245 | 0.292 | 0.410 | OK |
| Leonardo Bernal | DH | 6 | 24 | 8 | 0.333 | 1 | 6 | 0.407 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0.200 | 0.331 | 0.403 | 0.504 | OK |
| Nolan Gorman | 3B | 72 | 232 | 44 | 0.190 | 9 | 31 | 0.265 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.191 | 0.257 | 0.362 | OK |
| Joshua Baez | LF | 21 | 69 | 18 | 0.261 | 7 | 16 | 0.316 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.284 | 0.323 | 0.629 | OK |
| Thomas Saggese | SS | 34 | 100 | 27 | 0.270 | 4 | 12 | 0.330 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.250 | 0.304 | 0.372 | 0.525 | OK |
| Nathan Church | CF | 111 | 370 | 91 | 0.246 | 10 | 47 | 0.286 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.268 | 0.303 | 0.361 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 41 | 37 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 0.270 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Turner Hill | LF | 17 | 52 | 16 | 0.308 | 0 | 12 | 0.391 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.400 | 0.300 | 0.378 | 0.397 | OK |
| Rafael Devers | DH | 143 | 536 | 139 | 0.259 | 34 | 90 | 0.340 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.278 | 0.360 | 0.593 | OK |
| Bryce Eldridge | 1B | 98 | 348 | 91 | 0.261 | 15 | 45 | 0.359 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.262 | 0.370 | 0.447 | OK |
| Jonah Cox | CF | 34 | 83 | 24 | 0.289 | 4 | 10 | 0.330 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.256 | 0.300 | 0.432 | OK |
| Jung Hoo Lee | RF | 128 | 489 | 138 | 0.282 | 8 | 51 | 0.324 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.206 | 0.243 | 0.298 | OK |
| Osleivis Basabe | 2B | 31 | 106 | 22 | 0.208 | 5 | 12 | 0.254 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.204 | 0.240 | 0.374 | OK |
| Andrew Knizner | C | 14 | 34 | 6 | 0.176 | 1 | 1 | 0.263 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.196 | 0.257 | 0.362 | OK |
| Shay Whitcomb | 3B | 11 | 38 | 5 | 0.132 | 1 | 3 | 0.132 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.102 | 0.110 | 0.210 | OK |
| Christian Koss | SS | 48 | 145 | 30 | 0.207 | 3 | 8 | 0.243 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.208 | 0.241 | 0.336 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 40 | 33 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Michael McGreevy | Starter | 27 | 144.3 | 4.05 | 1.282 | 6.4 | 102 | 5.1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 93 | 5.1 | 1 | 2 |
| Riley O'Brien | Closer | 59 | 54.2 | 4.32 | 1.310 | 9.5 | 57 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 17 | 1.0 | 2 | 0 |
| George Soriano | Setup Man | 64 | 53.4 | 4.89 | 1.536 | 10.4 | 62 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 24 | 1.0 | 1 | 2 |
| Ryne Stanek | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 62 | 47.6 | 5.11 | 1.576 | 11.2 | 59 | 1.2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 31 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Logan Webb | Starter | 25 | 148.5 | 4.24 | 1.172 | 7.2 | 119 | 5.1 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 105 | 5.1 | 5 | 4 |
| Dylan Smith | Closer | 34 | 28.4 | 3.49 | 1.479 | 13.0 | 41 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Trent Harris | Setup Man | 12 | 13.3 | 3.38 | 1.278 | 12.9 | 19 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 32 | 1.1 | 2 | 0 |
| Carson Seymour | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 16 | 21.0 | 6.43 | 1.810 | 7.3 | 17 | 1.0 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 26 | 1.0 | 1 | 3 |
| Jason Foley | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 17 | 15.0 | 5.40 | 1.867 | 7.2 | 12 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0.1 | 0 | 0 |
STL wins 7-5
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
| OAK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
Quality edge: -0.9732; margin adjustment: -0.4087; applied: True
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Brett Bateman | CF | 25 | 101 | 35 | 0.347 | 0 | 7 | 0.412 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.382 | 0.438 | 0.450 | OK |
| George Springer | DH | 108 | 408 | 102 | 0.250 | 14 | 47 | 0.325 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.210 | 0.282 | 0.375 | OK |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 1B | 128 | 486 | 126 | 0.259 | 8 | 54 | 0.326 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.249 | 0.309 | 0.359 | OK |
| Alejandro Kirk | C | 63 | 228 | 62 | 0.272 | 8 | 34 | 0.337 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.255 | 0.304 | 0.364 | OK |
| Kazuma Okamoto | 3B | 137 | 507 | 117 | 0.231 | 28 | 81 | 0.303 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.500 | 0.235 | 0.291 | 0.417 | OK |
| Nathan Lukes | RF | 105 | 356 | 96 | 0.270 | 10 | 36 | 0.319 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.280 | 0.312 | 0.383 | OK |
| Ernie Clement | 2B | 140 | 531 | 146 | 0.275 | 9 | 46 | 0.301 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.164 | 0.198 | 0.255 | OK |
| Andrés Giménez | SS | 126 | 418 | 101 | 0.242 | 8 | 51 | 0.288 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.243 | 0.272 | 0.339 | OK |
| Myles Straw | LF | 109 | 259 | 62 | 0.239 | 3 | 23 | 0.297 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.284 | 0.355 | 0.394 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 34 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 2 | 11 | 0.206 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Henry Bolte | CF | 97 | 347 | 95 | 0.274 | 8 | 31 | 0.349 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.274 | 0.337 | 0.412 | OK |
| Jeff McNeil | 1B | 125 | 417 | 112 | 0.269 | 8 | 52 | 0.315 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.267 | 0.308 | 0.386 | OK |
| Zack Gelof | 3B | 89 | 327 | 84 | 0.257 | 17 | 42 | 0.321 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.229 | 0.276 | 0.464 | OK |
| Lawrence Butler | RF | 129 | 402 | 93 | 0.231 | 13 | 52 | 0.319 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.500 | 0.239 | 0.314 | 0.387 | OK |
| Carlos Cortes | LF | 105 | 300 | 77 | 0.257 | 8 | 38 | 0.323 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.242 | 0.294 | 0.363 | OK |
| Max Muncy | DH | 75 | 239 | 54 | 0.226 | 9 | 29 | 0.293 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.233 | 0.288 | 0.409 | OK |
| Donovan Walton | 2B | 38 | 87 | 19 | 0.218 | 2 | 10 | 0.398 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.333 | 0.215 | 0.319 | 0.403 | OK |
| Alika Williams | SS | 63 | 176 | 48 | 0.273 | 4 | 15 | 0.304 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.272 | 0.305 | 0.463 | OK |
| Jonah Heim | C | 80 | 276 | 58 | 0.210 | 12 | 34 | 0.267 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.214 | 0.268 | 0.381 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 35 | 31 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 0.129 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Dylan Cease | Starter | 26 | 153.3 | 2.29 | 1.057 | 13.0 | 221 | 6.0 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 89 | 6.0 | 7 | 2 |
| Louis Varland | Closer | 64 | 66.0 | 1.23 | 1.045 | 11.9 | 87 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Tyler Rogers | Setup Man | 66 | 59.0 | 1.98 | 1.288 | 5.3 | 35 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Spencer Miles | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 44 | 78.9 | 3.08 | 1.166 | 8.9 | 78 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jacob Lopez | Starter | 23 | 102.2 | 4.84 | 1.497 | 9.1 | 103 | 5.0 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 92 | 5.0 | 8 | 5 |
| Elvis Alvarado | Closer | 47 | 40.7 | 4.86 | 1.450 | 12.2 | 55 | 1.0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Hogan Harris | Setup Man | 65 | 50.6 | 4.09 | 1.779 | 14.6 | 82 | 1.2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 1.2 | 2 | 1 |
| Luis Medina | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 48 | 59.0 | 3.51 | 1.475 | 12.2 | 80 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 |
TOR wins 6-2
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 6 |
| SD | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | x | 6 | 7 |
Quality edge: -0.0369; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| James Wood | RF | 118 | 452 | 121 | 0.268 | 30 | 74 | 0.395 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.000 | 0.274 | 0.399 | 0.489 | OK |
| Abimelec Ortiz | 1B | 32 | 100 | 20 | 0.200 | 5 | 11 | 0.238 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0.667 | 0.118 | 0.158 | 0.203 | OK |
| Dylan Crews | LF | 90 | 341 | 74 | 0.217 | 10 | 36 | 0.288 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.218 | 0.273 | 0.364 | OK |
| CJ Abrams | SS | 136 | 518 | 137 | 0.264 | 30 | 95 | 0.342 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.209 | 0.277 | 0.403 | OK |
| Brady House | 3B | 77 | 276 | 68 | 0.246 | 10 | 41 | 0.304 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.269 | 0.316 | 0.403 | OK |
| Daylen Lile | DH | 143 | 543 | 139 | 0.256 | 20 | 82 | 0.309 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.268 | 0.326 | 0.476 | OK |
| Keibert Ruiz | C | 90 | 297 | 85 | 0.286 | 9 | 46 | 0.324 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.310 | 0.342 | 0.495 | OK |
| Jorbit Vivas | 2B | 101 | 270 | 64 | 0.237 | 3 | 25 | 0.330 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.245 | 0.349 | 0.342 | OK |
| Jacob Young | CF | 114 | 382 | 96 | 0.251 | 10 | 43 | 0.312 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.266 | 0.319 | 0.381 | OK |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 33 | 6 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 0.182 | ||||||||||||
| Player | Pos | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | Deviation | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | AB | H | AVG | HR | RBI | OBP | PA | AB | H | R | RBI | BB | SO | AVG | AVG | OBP | SLG | |||
| Fernando Tatis Jr. | RF | 139 | 554 | 155 | 0.280 | 20 | 70 | 0.345 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.500 | 0.256 | 0.309 | 0.514 | OK |
| Jake Cronenworth | 2B | 90 | 311 | 66 | 0.212 | 5 | 27 | 0.298 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.178 | 0.255 | 0.325 | OK |
| Manny Machado | 3B | 139 | 515 | 114 | 0.221 | 26 | 77 | 0.310 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.000 | 0.259 | 0.348 | 0.492 | OK |
| Ty France | 1B | 111 | 376 | 109 | 0.290 | 20 | 62 | 0.358 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.256 | 0.324 | 0.468 | OK |
| Jackson Merrill | CF | 139 | 540 | 128 | 0.237 | 22 | 70 | 0.290 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.250 | 0.214 | 0.263 | 0.371 | OK |
| Luis Campusano | DH | 57 | 165 | 47 | 0.285 | 7 | 26 | 0.382 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0.333 | 0.275 | 0.360 | 0.484 | OK |
| Dustin Harris | LF | 7 | 22 | 9 | 0.409 | 0 | 1 | 0.409 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.250 | 0.288 | 0.336 | 0.393 | OK |
| Xander Bogaerts | SS | 136 | 463 | 101 | 0.218 | 11 | 52 | 0.318 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.000 | 0.211 | 0.309 | 0.289 | OK |
| Ethan Salas | C | 3 | 8 | 0 | 0.000 | 0 | 0 | 0.000 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.250 | 0.124 | 0.137 | 0.233 | |
| TEAM TOTALS | 36 | 31 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 6 | 0.226 | ||||||||||||
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Jake Irvin | Starter | 18 | 84.5 | 5.64 | 1.420 | 9.3 | 87 | 4.2 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 93 | 4.2 | 3 | 3 |
| Clayton Beeter | Closer | 47 | 41.1 | 4.60 | 1.509 | 9.9 | 45 | 0.2 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 0.2 | 1 | 3 |
| Orlando Ribalta | Setup Man | 45 | 38.8 | 4.18 | 1.340 | 9.7 | 42 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Erik Tolman | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 6 | 6.4 | 1.41 | 1.094 | 12.7 | 9 | 1.1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 21 | 1.1 | 1 | 0 |
| Pitcher | Role | Actual 2026 Season | Simulated Game | Model Prediction | |||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G | IP | ERA | WHIP | K/9 | SO | IP | H | R | ER | BB | SO | P | IP | SO | ER | ||
| Nick Pivetta | Starter | 4 | 16.0 | 4.50 | 1.125 | 13.5 | 24 | 5.0 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 84 | 5.0 | 7 | 4 |
| Mason Miller | Closer | 57 | 57.3 | 1.26 | 0.873 | 17.4 | 111 | 1.1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 23 | 1.1 | 1 | 1 |
| Adrian Morejon | Setup Man | 66 | 67.8 | 3.32 | 1.254 | 12.5 | 94 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1.0 | 1 | 0 |
| Bradgley Rodriguez | Middle Reliever (High Leverage) | 59 | 55.7 | 2.10 | 1.149 | 11.3 | 70 | 1.2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 1.2 | 1 | 0 |
SD wins 6-5