MLB Predictions: Actual Data vs Predicted Data

September 7, 2026 — Player-by-Player Deep Comparison (11 games)
Actual stats = real season stats prior to game date  |  Simulated = predicted game stats  |  Model = pre-game model predictions

All Games Overview

MatchupTarget ScoreSim ScoreTarget WinnerSim WinnerWinnerConfidenceMethod
ARI @ KC3 - 53 - 5KCKCKC wins 5-358%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
ATL @ PHI3 - 43 - 4PHIPHIPHI wins 4-353%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CHC @ MIL5 - 75 - 7MILMILMIL wins 7-551%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CIN @ LAD5 - 65 - 6LADLADLAD wins 6-553%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
CLE @ BAL3 - 43 - 4BALBALBAL wins 4-351%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
LAA @ BOS3 - 53 - 5BOSBOSBOS wins 5-362%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
MIN @ DET5 - 45 - 4MINMINMIN wins 5-453%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
NYM @ MIA4 - 54 - 5MIAMIAMIA wins 5-452%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
STL @ SF7 - 57 - 5STLSTLSTL wins 7-563%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
TOR @ OAK6 - 26 - 2TORTORTOR wins 6-270%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
WAS @ SD5 - 65 - 6SDSDSD wins 6-553%enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
Actual Season Stats (green)
Simulated Game Stats (blue)
Model Predictions (purple)
LARGE deviation (>40%)
MODERATE deviation (20-40%)
OK deviation (<20%)

Arizona Diamondbacks @ Kansas City Royals

ARI 77-68 (4.42 RPG / 4.42 RA)
3 - 5
KC 64-81 (4.28 RPG / 4.9 RA)
WINNER: KC wins 5-3 TARGET: ARI 3 - 5 KC (KC) Confidence: 58.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
ARI00010000237
KC02000012x59

ARI Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.1
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff-6
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak2W

KC Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.2
Avg Allowed4.8
Run Diff4
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

ARI Season Quality

Record76-68
Win%0.528
Run Diff-1
RD/Game-0.007

KC Season Quality

Record64-80
Win%0.444
Run Diff-88
RD/Game-0.611

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.4026; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

ARI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Geraldo PerdomoSS 139497125 0.252 9480.359 43000 10 0.000 0.272 0.370 0.363 OK
Corbin CarrollRF 140524126 0.240 19610.335 44200 00 0.500 0.215 0.287 0.404 OK
Gabriel MorenoC 113407122 0.300 12690.378 44211 01 0.500 0.272 0.345 0.478 OK
Ketel MarteDH 122487122 0.251 22680.315 44000 01 0.000 0.262 0.325 0.466 OK
Nolan Arenado3B 134468109 0.233 22670.307 43011 02 0.000 0.201 0.257 0.378 OK
Ildemaro Vargas2B 119419105 0.251 9660.288 44100 02 0.250 0.241 0.273 0.352 OK
Lourdes Gurriel Jr.LF 4717436 0.207 2210.254 44111 01 0.250 0.183 0.223 0.261 OK
Tim Tawa1B 8025561 0.239 9350.296 44000 00 0.000 0.178 0.247 0.286 OK
Jordan LawlarCF 268121 0.259 4100.326 33100 00 0.333 0.243 0.269 0.409 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35337 33 17 0.212

KC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Carter JensenC 131465107 0.230 22670.316 43000 11 0.000 0.263 0.335 0.551 OK
Bobby Witt Jr.SS 124485138 0.285 17500.359 43000 01 0.000 0.259 0.335 0.442 OK
Jac CaglianoneRF 130471132 0.280 23700.328 43000 13 0.000 0.277 0.317 0.454 OK
Salvador PerezDH 133513117 0.228 19680.273 44111 00 0.250 0.273 0.299 0.478 OK
Vinnie Pasquantino1B 9635585 0.239 11460.330 44111 01 0.250 0.214 0.300 0.423 OK
Nick Loftin3B 10232478 0.241 7420.324 44311 00 0.750 0.255 0.322 0.386 OK
Michael Massey2B 11135499 0.280 11450.314 44111 00 0.250 0.281 0.323 0.420 OK
Isaac CollinsLF 12639989 0.223 6400.325 44100 00 0.250 0.159 0.269 0.273 OK
Kyle IsbelCF 8124956 0.225 6240.272 44211 01 0.500 0.200 0.238 0.277 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36339 55 27 0.273

ARI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jose CabreraStarter 623.35.02 1.3736.617 4.23221584 4.2 5 2
Brandyn GarciaCloser 3626.82.01 0.78412.136 1.11001035 1.1 0 0
Juan MorilloSetup Man 4840.42.90 1.11412.355 1.02110219 1.0 2 1
Jonathan LoáisigaMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4840.83.09 1.2257.132 1.03220022 1.0 0 2

KC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Noah CameronStarter 27152.04.14 1.2378.2138 6.02111492 6.0 4 1
Steven CruzCloser 5048.04.69 1.35410.757 1.00000213 1.0 2 0
Nate PearsonSetup Man 1716.30.55 0.9208.315 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Craig KimbrelMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 98.30.00 0.7236.56 1.04220025 1.0 0 2

Game Summary

KC wins 5-3


Atlanta Braves @ Philadelphia Phillies

ATL 85-60 (4.6 RPG / 3.81 RA)
3 - 4
PHI 81-63 (4.46 RPG / 4.22 RA)
WINNER: PHI wins 4-3 TARGET: ATL 3 - 4 PHI (PHI) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
ATL00020000138
PHI00000022x45

ATL Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs4.1
Avg Allowed3.3
Run Diff8
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1W

PHI Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs3.9
Avg Allowed2.2
Run Diff17
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendstrong
Streak1L

ATL Season Quality

Record85-58
Win%0.594
Run Diff120
RD/Game0.839

PHI Season Quality

Record80-63
Win%0.559
Run Diff34
RD/Game0.238

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.39; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

ATL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Ronald Acuña Jr.DH 8933887 0.257 16450.352 44100 01 0.250 0.290 0.367 0.518 OK
Drake BaldwinC 119466130 0.279 22690.357 44000 02 0.000 0.271 0.323 0.408 OK
Ozzie Albies2B 142541138 0.255 21680.310 44210 00 0.500 0.232 0.280 0.383 OK
Matt Olson1B 142549136 0.248 36780.322 44000 00 0.000 0.182 0.251 0.359 OK
Lane ThomasRF 17387 0.184 130.262 44112 01 0.250 0.214 0.305 0.361 OK
Michael Harris IICF 136517152 0.294 24800.319 44100 00 0.250 0.256 0.279 0.468 OK
Mauricio DubónLF 134498134 0.269 11660.313 44111 00 0.250 0.252 0.289 0.384 OK
Austin Riley3B 140498112 0.225 16660.296 44100 01 0.250 0.222 0.275 0.391 OK
Ha-Seong KimSS 339711 0.113 060.204 33100 00 0.333 0.150 0.224 0.185 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35358 33 05 0.229

PHI Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kyle SchwarberDH 135509122 0.240 41850.354 44110 01 0.250 0.235 0.343 0.535 OK
Trea TurnerSS 135564136 0.241 17520.292 44112 02 0.250 0.215 0.262 0.320 OK
Bryce HarperRF 141499136 0.273 27800.390 44110 01 0.250 0.285 0.399 0.485 OK
Luis Arraez2B 2911835 0.297 2130.309 33100 00 0.333 0.308 0.339 0.402 OK
Alec Bohm1B 134503124 0.247 15790.309 33112 00 0.333 0.245 0.308 0.404 OK
Bryson Stott3B 135470119 0.253 10600.328 32000 10 0.000 0.231 0.301 0.374 OK
Brandon MarshLF 134476127 0.267 17570.313 33000 01 0.000 0.174 0.223 0.277 OK
J.T. RealmutoC 10435678 0.219 10460.294 33000 02 0.000 0.212 0.283 0.362 OK
Justin CrawfordCF 12637196 0.259 2340.308 33000 00 0.000 0.210 0.259 0.279 OK
TEAM TOTALS 30295 44 17 0.172

ATL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Grant HolmesStarter 28130.43.87 1.3737.3106 4.22221680 4.2 6 2
Raisel IglesiasCloser 5250.92.83 1.1989.755 1.22220027 1.2 0 2
Dylan LeeSetup Man 6554.32.65 0.93912.475 1.21000124 1.2 1 0

PHI Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jesús LuzardoStarter 28165.03.11 1.15211.4209 6.15220598 6.1 5 2
Jhoan DuranCloser 5351.41.40 1.01212.672 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Jonathan BowlanSetup Man 5548.83.32 1.06612.467 1.01000016 1.0 0 0
Orion KerkeringMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5947.94.70 1.48210.757 0.22110014 0.2 0 1

Game Summary

PHI wins 4-3


Chicago Cubs @ Milwaukee Brewers

CHC 81-64 (5.32 RPG / 4.41 RA)
5 - 7
MIL 89-56 (5.03 RPG / 3.87 RA)
WINNER: MIL wins 7-5 TARGET: CHC 5 - 7 MIL (MIL) Confidence: 50.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
CHC01010201058
MIL11101003x712

CHC Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs7.3
Avg Allowed6.0
Run Diff13
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

MIL Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.8
Avg Allowed6.3
Run Diff-5
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak2L

CHC Season Quality

Record81-63
Win%0.562
Run Diff132
RD/Game0.917

MIL Season Quality

Record88-56
Win%0.611
Run Diff168
RD/Game1.167

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.1133; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CHC Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF 142546154 0.282 40960.376 44111 00 0.250 0.277 0.354 0.646 OK
Seiya SuzukiDH 125475130 0.274 24800.372 44110 01 0.250 0.262 0.369 0.463 OK
Alex Bregman3B 140555145 0.261 24810.350 43111 10 0.333 0.266 0.347 0.548 OK
Tyrone TaylorLF 185221 0.404 170.456 44313 00 0.750 0.330 0.367 0.563 OK
Nico HoernerSS 139553148 0.268 8640.318 44000 00 0.000 0.286 0.328 0.373 OK
Matt ShawRF 5514436 0.250 5210.323 44210 00 0.500 0.147 0.238 0.333 OK
Carson KellyC 10033988 0.260 10510.338 44000 02 0.000 0.238 0.303 0.376 OK
BJ Murray Jr.1B 361 0.167 000.167 44000 01 0.000 0.185 0.198 0.221 OK
Pedro Ramirez2B 6118349 0.268 4260.327 44000 02 0.000 0.205 0.267 0.340 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36358 55 16 0.229

MIL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Jackson ChourioLF 107446127 0.285 21590.344 55311 00 0.600 0.245 0.296 0.422 OK
Brice Turang2B 130509134 0.263 17860.354 54000 11 0.000 0.280 0.356 0.432 OK
William ContrerasC 130504136 0.270 14730.339 55211 00 0.400 0.267 0.321 0.470 OK
Andrew Vaughn1B 9126483 0.314 6420.394 43111 11 0.333 0.211 0.294 0.356 OK
Christian YelichDH 9937588 0.235 10470.319 43000 10 0.000 0.262 0.336 0.400 OK
Luis LaraRF 4213836 0.261 1210.331 44110 02 0.250 0.259 0.328 0.352 OK
Cooper PrattSS 5417146 0.269 3280.337 44112 01 0.250 0.270 0.344 0.387 OK
Garrett MitchellCF 120393101 0.257 8490.345 44311 00 0.750 0.288 0.355 0.448 OK
Joey Ortiz3B 10231078 0.252 8410.315 44111 01 0.250 0.262 0.327 0.404 OK
TEAM TOTALS 393612 77 36 0.333

CHC Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Matthew BoydStarter 1899.34.17 1.2697.279 5.274424112 5.2 4 4
Jacob WebbCloser 6154.43.47 1.36010.865 1.00000121 1.0 1 0
Trent ThorntonSetup Man 4439.63.86 1.3896.428 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Ryan ZeferjahnMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1310.17.13 1.78210.712 0.15331123 0.1 1 3

MIL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Robert GasserStarter 1783.44.75 1.3438.882 5.05440578 5.0 5 4
Trevor MegillCloser 5453.41.52 0.80510.462 2.00000019 2.0 0 0
Abner UribeSetup Man 5246.72.12 1.07110.052 1.02111023 1.0 0 1
Aaron AshbyMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6772.03.50 1.48613.6109 1.01000116 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

MIL wins 7-5


Cincinnati Reds @ Los Angeles Dodgers

CIN 69-74 (4.23 RPG / 4.97 RA)
5 - 6
LAD 86-57 (4.93 RPG / 3.87 RA)
WINNER: LAD wins 6-5 TARGET: CIN 5 - 6 LAD (LAD) Confidence: 53.3% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
CIN00010112056
LAD000021021610

CIN Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs6.7
Avg Allowed7.1
Run Diff-4
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak2W

LAD Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.4
Avg Allowed4.1
Run Diff3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak4W

CIN Season Quality

Record69-74
Win%0.483
Run Diff-105
RD/Game-0.734

LAD Season Quality

Record86-57
Win%0.601
Run Diff152
RD/Game1.063

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.2463; margin adjustment: 0.5234; applied: True

CIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Héctor RodríguezRF 258723 0.264 5120.326 43211 10 0.667 0.268 0.319 0.468 OK
Elly De La CruzSS 121477135 0.283 23660.365 44213 00 0.500 0.342 0.411 0.607 OK
Sal Stewart1B 140538144 0.268 301040.337 43010 11 0.000 0.267 0.332 0.429 OK
JJ BledayLF 11139889 0.224 22550.333 44000 00 0.000 0.212 0.316 0.392 OK
Tyler StephensonC 11035990 0.251 15520.331 44110 01 0.250 0.235 0.312 0.417 OK
Eugenio SuárezDH 10837780 0.212 21620.306 44000 01 0.000 0.211 0.304 0.408 OK
Matt McLain2B 11338774 0.191 15390.284 44000 02 0.000 0.182 0.262 0.376 OK
Carlos JorgeCF 250 0.000 000.000 44111 03 0.250 0.185 0.196 0.290
Ke'Bryan Hayes3B 6419430 0.155 580.215 33000 00 0.000 0.177 0.239 0.276 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35336 55 28 0.182

LAD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Shohei OhtaniDH 128494137 0.277 30780.381 54110 11 0.250 0.257 0.359 0.472 OK
Freddie Freeman1B 137514155 0.302 16640.380 54100 12 0.250 0.268 0.359 0.430 OK
Tommy Edman2B 6222762 0.273 6310.345 53112 21 0.333 0.282 0.322 0.442 OK
Max Muncy3B 129421104 0.247 26680.344 55111 01 0.200 0.276 0.369 0.457 OK
Teoscar HernándezLF 10537396 0.257 12510.322 44100 00 0.250 0.294 0.361 0.456 OK
Kyle TuckerRF 131470105 0.223 12590.319 44111 02 0.250 0.180 0.291 0.321 OK
Hunter FeducciaC 205013 0.260 150.339 44212 01 0.500 0.163 0.239 0.260 OK
Alex CallCF 6414637 0.253 1190.347 44000 01 0.000 0.260 0.338 0.344 OK
Alex FreelandSS 7620646 0.223 3190.305 44210 01 0.500 0.212 0.305 0.283 OK
TEAM TOTALS 403610 66 410 0.278

CIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Chase BurnsStarter 26143.02.83 1.17510.8171 5.263338113 5.2 8 3
Luis MeySetup Man 2024.64.02 1.50413.938 1.11001032 1.1 0 0
Brock BurkeMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 7159.02.90 1.50810.871 1.23330222 1.0 2 3

LAD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Emmet SheehanStarter 2091.65.50 1.34310.6108 5.04221583 5.0 5 2
Tanner ScottCloser 6252.22.93 1.07312.170 1.21110124 1.2 1 1
Edgardo HenriquezSetup Man 5850.23.05 1.09612.268 1.01221020 1.0 0 2
Brock StewartMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 2219.12.83 1.0999.019 1.10000217 1.1 2 0

Game Summary

LAD wins 6-5


Cleveland Guardians @ Baltimore Orioles

CLE 73-72 (4.03 RPG / 4.14 RA)
3 - 4
BAL 70-75 (4.46 RPG / 4.65 RA)
WINNER: BAL wins 4-3 TARGET: CLE 3 - 4 BAL (BAL) Confidence: 50.8% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
12345678910RH
CLE100200000037
BAL000200000249

CLE Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs3.7
Avg Allowed4.7
Run Diff-10
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

BAL Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.2
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff-5
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak6L

CLE Season Quality

Record73-71
Win%0.507
Run Diff-14
RD/Game-0.097

BAL Season Quality

Record69-75
Win%0.479
Run Diff-29
RD/Game-0.201

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.1158; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

CLE Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Steven KwanLF 129465126 0.271 2270.368 55211 00 0.400 0.261 0.346 0.328 OK
Jo AdellDH 3010925 0.229 4220.312 54210 10 0.500 0.226 0.266 0.365 OK
José Ramírez3B 10639794 0.237 11480.330 54000 11 0.000 0.195 0.275 0.309 OK
Angel MartínezRF 9333481 0.243 14500.282 55100 02 0.200 0.228 0.261 0.401 OK
David Fry1B 7215330 0.196 6130.293 54000 11 0.000 0.217 0.307 0.353 OK
Angel Genao2B 279824 0.245 260.295 55100 01 0.200 0.237 0.281 0.342 OK
Austin HedgesC 6619148 0.251 5230.322 44112 02 0.250 0.207 0.281 0.305 OK
Petey HalpinCF 5614730 0.204 390.244 43000 00 0.000 0.178 0.214 0.283 OK
Brayan RocchioSS 134471117 0.248 13590.306 43000 11 0.000 0.249 0.293 0.510 OK
TEAM TOTALS 42377 33 48 0.189

BAL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Blaze AlexanderRF 7925077 0.308 4300.358 55110 01 0.200 0.303 0.341 0.395 OK
Pete Alonso1B 141528142 0.269 33940.359 55212 03 0.400 0.242 0.326 0.445 OK
Jackson Holliday2B 8627964 0.229 7280.300 55112 01 0.200 0.212 0.272 0.350 OK
Coby Mayo3B 10834377 0.224 19550.288 44000 02 0.000 0.249 0.299 0.453 OK
Gunnar HendersonSS 139555122 0.220 21560.304 44000 00 0.000 0.219 0.299 0.393 OK
Christian Encarnacion-StrandDH 4113835 0.254 7290.297 44100 01 0.250 0.253 0.297 0.467 OK
Samuel BasalloC 9832774 0.226 17500.292 44100 02 0.250 0.187 0.255 0.338 OK
Rece HindsCF 131 0.333 000.333 44100 01 0.250 0.148 0.174 0.264 OK
Dylan BeaversLF 8325563 0.247 6310.320 44210 01 0.500 0.138 0.216 0.251 OK
TEAM TOTALS 39399 44 012 0.231

CLE Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Joey CantilloStarter 29138.43.90 1.5109.8151 4.22220677 4.2 6 2
Cade SmithCloser 6060.52.38 1.10713.893 1.11000220 1.1 2 0
Hunter GaddisSetup Man 5742.53.18 1.36510.248 1.01000116 1.0 1 0
Erik SabrowskiMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5133.73.20 1.33517.967 1.03000222 1.0 2 0
Tim HerrinMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5938.73.95 1.60210.545 0.1100007 0.0 0 0
Daniel EspinoReliever 77.33.70 1.37018.515 1.21220129 0.0 1 2

BAL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Trevor RogersStarter 26140.64.42 1.2668.4132 5.263333113 5.2 3 3
Andrew KittredgeCloser 5039.83.62 1.5338.437 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Rico GarciaSetup Man 6652.32.93 1.03310.762 1.20000029 1.1 0 0
Yennier CanoMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5935.83.02 1.11710.341 0.20001212 0.0 2 0
Josh WalkerMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 2217.12.63 1.69612.123 1.01000216 1.0 2 0

Game Summary

BAL wins 4-3


Los Angeles Angels @ Boston Red Sox

LAA 54-90 (4.02 RPG / 4.58 RA)
3 - 5
BOS 80-65 (4.46 RPG / 3.85 RA)
WINNER: BOS wins 5-3 TARGET: LAA 3 - 5 BOS (BOS) Confidence: 62.3% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
LAA00001100139
BOS10000103x56

LAA Recent Form

Win%0.200
Avg Runs3.2
Avg Allowed3.5
Run Diff-3
Off Trendcold
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

BOS Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs4.2
Avg Allowed5.6
Run Diff-14
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak4W

LAA Season Quality

Record54-89
Win%0.378
Run Diff-77
RD/Game-0.538

BOS Season Quality

Record79-65
Win%0.549
Run Diff86
RD/Game0.597

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 1.0127; margin adjustment: 0.4253; applied: True

LAA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Zach NetoSS 138550131 0.238 23670.318 54100 00 0.250 0.238 0.297 0.394 OK
Mike TroutDH 124452110 0.243 20510.377 55000 01 0.000 0.236 0.342 0.390 OK
Wade MecklerLF 7423971 0.297 3250.364 44000 02 0.000 0.287 0.347 0.380 OK
Vaughn Grissom3B 9735487 0.246 10580.304 43000 10 0.000 0.228 0.270 0.365 OK
Moisés Ballesteros1B 2910919 0.174 170.224 44200 02 0.500 0.197 0.257 0.310 OK
Christian Moore2B 207212 0.167 160.228 44211 00 0.500 0.158 0.208 0.283 OK
Josh LoweRF 9226856 0.209 11280.275 44211 01 0.500 0.200 0.287 0.353 OK
Kyren ParisCF 000 0.000 000.000 43111 10 0.333 0.227 0.288 0.374
Tyler HeinemanC 287715 0.195 030.244 44100 00 0.250 0.145 0.169 0.210 OK
TEAM TOTALS 38359 33 26 0.257

BOS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Roman AnthonyDH 3814435 0.243 370.355 44110 03 0.250 0.248 0.349 0.409 OK
Mickey Gasper1B 5115643 0.276 8220.380 44214 00 0.500 0.282 0.380 0.531 OK
Adley RutschmanC 186512 0.185 360.254 44111 01 0.250 0.250 0.305 0.441 OK
Wilyer AbreuRF 138527136 0.258 23700.337 33000 01 0.000 0.252 0.323 0.427 OK
Trevor StorySS 4819446 0.237 3230.268 33000 01 0.000 0.288 0.313 0.402 OK
Caleb Durbin3B 131446107 0.240 12590.318 33000 01 0.000 0.189 0.275 0.278 OK
Jarren DuranLF 133505101 0.200 19620.258 33110 00 0.333 0.162 0.215 0.284 OK
Isiah Kiner-Falefa2B 4412835 0.273 2160.340 33000 00 0.000 0.174 0.257 0.280 OK
Eli WhiteCF 195014 0.280 1110.308 33110 01 0.333 0.263 0.296 0.443 OK
TEAM TOTALS 30306 55 08 0.200

LAA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Grayson RodriguezStarter 1675.16.23 1.5718.672 5.04330586 5.0 5 3
Ben JoyceCloser 108.43.21 0.95213.913 2.10000229 2.1 2 0
Ryan WatsonSetup Man 118.63.14 1.39512.612 0.22220114 0.2 1 2

BOS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Brayan BelloStarter 2294.45.24 1.5156.770 4.14222475 4.1 4 2
Aroldis ChapmanCloser 4948.21.49 1.05812.165 1.1211018 1.1 1 1
Erik MillerSetup Man 1313.10.69 0.99216.524 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Garrett WhitlockMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4846.31.94 0.86410.152 1.11000020 1.1 0 0
Greg WeissertMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5644.74.23 1.43210.954 1.02000119 1.0 1 0

Game Summary

BOS wins 5-3


Minnesota Twins @ Detroit Tigers

MIN 68-76 (4.65 RPG / 4.99 RA)
5 - 4
DET 66-78 (4.39 RPG / 4.03 RA)
WINNER: MIN wins 5-4 TARGET: MIN 5 - 4 DET (MIN) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
MIN41000000056
DET20020000047

MIN Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs5.5
Avg Allowed5.0
Run Diff5
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

DET Recent Form

Win%0.300
Avg Runs3.5
Avg Allowed5.5
Run Diff-20
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

MIN Season Quality

Record68-75
Win%0.476
Run Diff-48
RD/Game-0.336

DET Season Quality

Record65-78
Win%0.455
Run Diff50
RD/Game0.350

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.257; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

MIN Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Luke KeaschallRF 133463127 0.274 9440.362 44112 01 0.250 0.270 0.332 0.382 OK
Brooks Lee3B 134512128 0.250 23780.297 43000 10 0.000 0.255 0.289 0.448 OK
Kody Clemens2B 125463110 0.238 24710.298 43111 10 0.333 0.234 0.292 0.457 OK
Ryan JeffersC 7627173 0.269 14530.364 44000 02 0.000 0.229 0.316 0.494 OK
Josh BellDH 137504130 0.258 18840.321 44000 00 0.000 0.292 0.350 0.469 OK
Royce Lewis1B 10839794 0.237 14510.304 44211 00 0.500 0.239 0.301 0.414 OK
Trevor LarnachLF 11437097 0.262 11450.341 44110 00 0.250 0.239 0.310 0.398 OK
Kaelen CulpepperSS 259127 0.297 3100.350 44111 02 0.250 0.259 0.306 0.393 OK
Walker JenkinsCF 8263 0.115 130.258 43000 10 0.000 0.135 0.266 0.289 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36336 55 35 0.182

DET Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Colt KeithDH 12736093 0.258 9310.313 54114 11 0.250 0.250 0.301 0.371 OK
Kevin McGonigle3B 137526143 0.272 14590.374 44110 00 0.250 0.257 0.360 0.379 OK
Gleyber Torres2B 8331585 0.270 8360.370 44100 00 0.250 0.281 0.360 0.368 OK
Riley GreeneLF 120440122 0.277 18620.367 43000 11 0.000 0.271 0.346 0.519 OK
Dillon DinglerC 131498124 0.249 26830.310 44000 02 0.000 0.222 0.257 0.367 OK
Zach McKinstryRF 11034172 0.211 4260.289 44210 00 0.500 0.174 0.232 0.250 OK
Spencer Torkelson1B 139473104 0.220 22650.312 44210 01 0.500 0.219 0.293 0.436 OK
Max ClarkCF 3311730 0.256 2160.320 43000 02 0.000 0.264 0.314 0.418 OK
John PeckSS 5194 0.211 030.286 44000 02 0.000 0.185 0.228 0.307 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37347 44 29 0.206

MIN Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Joe RyanStarter 23124.53.69 1.14910.0138 5.274416108 5.2 6 4
Yoendrys GómezCloser 4838.22.83 1.38710.143 1.00001117 1.0 1 0
Jeff HoffmanSetup Man 129.63.75 1.66715.016 1.10000020 1.1 0 0
A.J. MinterMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1511.10.81 1.0819.712 1.00000213 1.0 2 0

DET Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Troy MeltonStarter 17100.02.25 1.0507.684 6.03222593 6.0 5 2
Kenley JansenCloser 4235.43.56 1.21511.244 1.01110016 1.0 0 1
Tyler HoltonSetup Man 6256.53.35 1.5048.453 1.01111014 1.0 0 1
Kyle FinneganMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5750.43.75 1.6878.246 1.01110016 1.0 0 1

Game Summary

MIN wins 5-4


New York Mets @ Miami Marlins

NYM 66-78 (4.2 RPG / 4.5 RA)
4 - 5
MIA 72-73 (4.38 RPG / 4.31 RA)
WINNER: MIA wins 5-4 TARGET: NYM 4 - 5 MIA (MIA) Confidence: 52.1% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
NYM00003010049
MIA02001200x511

NYM Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs4.6
Avg Allowed4.8
Run Diff-2
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

MIA Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.9
Avg Allowed5.3
Run Diff-4
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

NYM Season Quality

Record65-78
Win%0.455
Run Diff-48
RD/Game-0.336

MIA Season Quality

Record72-72
Win%0.500
Run Diff15
RD/Game0.104

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: 0.291; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

NYM Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Francisco LindorSS 8433276 0.229 16380.310 55110 00 0.200 0.211 0.278 0.418 OK
Juan SotoDH 9031888 0.277 23560.394 43214 10 0.667 0.252 0.367 0.486 OK
Bo Bichette3B 137545145 0.266 16710.312 44000 00 0.000 0.261 0.308 0.467 OK
Carson BengeRF 133510139 0.273 16530.332 44000 00 0.000 0.262 0.312 0.385 OK
Marcus Semien2B 12042294 0.223 14440.289 44000 00 0.000 0.223 0.300 0.328 OK
A.J. EwingCF 10036489 0.245 8300.319 44210 01 0.500 0.249 0.324 0.371 OK
Francisco AlvarezC 9531671 0.225 14340.309 44100 00 0.250 0.201 0.262 0.400 OK
Brett Baty1B 11837285 0.228 9470.294 44100 00 0.250 0.244 0.306 0.418 OK
Nick MorabitoLF 8192 0.105 030.227 44210 01 0.500 0.137 0.184 0.212 OK
TEAM TOTALS 37369 44 12 0.250

MIA Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Kyle StowersDH 10639197 0.248 19600.336 55100 00 0.200 0.259 0.340 0.516 OK
Heriberto HernándezLF 11037486 0.230 24630.310 54110 12 0.250 0.230 0.297 0.521 OK
Griffin Conine1B 7221956 0.256 15340.353 55210 01 0.400 0.260 0.347 0.473 OK
Otto LopezSS 140560169 0.302 10630.339 55211 00 0.400 0.263 0.301 0.392 OK
Jakob MarseeCF 13445596 0.211 9320.332 43100 10 0.333 0.222 0.322 0.364 OK
Javier Sanoja2B 115388112 0.289 8550.323 43000 11 0.000 0.302 0.338 0.472 OK
Owen CaissieRF 10028262 0.220 13550.279 43212 10 0.667 0.188 0.240 0.329 OK
Graham Pauley3B 4512023 0.192 2180.240 44000 01 0.000 0.169 0.232 0.353 OK
Joe MackC 8726461 0.231 12420.283 43212 10 0.667 0.212 0.255 0.320 OK
TEAM TOTALS 403511 55 55 0.314

NYM Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jonah TongStarter 39.33.87 1.6136.87 3.18331570 3.1 5 3
Kodai SengaCloser 2654.27.47 1.67911.066 1.03221026 1.0 0 2
Daniel DuarteSetup Man 2123.22.33 0.86210.126 2.00003033 2.0 0 0
Nathan LavenderMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 139.50.00 0.84214.215 1.20000021 1.2 0 0

MIA Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Eury PérezStarter 25133.73.77 1.1979.8145 5.17331192 5.1 1 3
Calvin FaucherCloser 6152.44.29 1.52711.265 1.11110119 1.1 1 1
Tyler ZuberSetup Man 3727.45.26 1.64211.836 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Michael PetersenMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5750.83.72 1.28011.967 1.11000020 1.1 0 0

Game Summary

MIA wins 5-4


St. Louis Cardinals @ San Francisco Giants

STL 72-72 (4.56 RPG / 4.62 RA)
7 - 5
SF 60-85 (4.21 RPG / 4.69 RA)
WINNER: STL wins 7-5 TARGET: STL 7 - 5 SF (STL) Confidence: 62.7% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
STL002200300710
SF10010002156

STL Recent Form

Win%0.600
Avg Runs6.4
Avg Allowed5.8
Run Diff6
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak1W

SF Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs5.7
Avg Allowed6.3
Run Diff-6
Off Trendhot
Def Trendweak
Streak1L

STL Season Quality

Record72-72
Win%0.500
Run Diff-9
RD/Game-0.062

SF Season Quality

Record59-85
Win%0.410
Run Diff-75
RD/Game-0.521

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.5161; margin adjustment: -0.2168; applied: True

STL Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Bryan Torres2B 5312733 0.260 3160.324 55112 01 0.200 0.277 0.346 0.377 OK
Iván HerreraC 140533132 0.248 15620.355 53110 21 0.333 0.269 0.341 0.421 OK
Alec Burleson1B 139535151 0.282 211000.343 54212 10 0.500 0.262 0.310 0.397 OK
Jordan WalkerRF 137536152 0.284 26950.340 55110 01 0.200 0.245 0.292 0.410 OK
Leonardo BernalDH 6248 0.333 160.407 55113 00 0.200 0.331 0.403 0.504 OK
Nolan Gorman3B 7223244 0.190 9310.265 44110 00 0.250 0.191 0.257 0.362 OK
Joshua BaezLF 216918 0.261 7160.316 43000 02 0.000 0.284 0.323 0.629 OK
Thomas SaggeseSS 3410027 0.270 4120.330 44100 02 0.250 0.304 0.372 0.525 OK
Nathan ChurchCF 11137091 0.246 10470.286 44210 01 0.500 0.268 0.303 0.361 OK
TEAM TOTALS 413710 77 38 0.270

SF Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Turner HillLF 175216 0.308 0120.391 55211 01 0.400 0.300 0.378 0.397 OK
Rafael DeversDH 143536139 0.259 34900.340 53111 20 0.333 0.278 0.360 0.593 OK
Bryce Eldridge1B 9834891 0.261 15450.359 54000 10 0.000 0.262 0.370 0.447 OK
Jonah CoxCF 348324 0.289 4100.330 54000 12 0.000 0.256 0.300 0.432 OK
Jung Hoo LeeRF 128489138 0.282 8510.324 44112 00 0.250 0.206 0.243 0.298 OK
Osleivis Basabe2B 3110622 0.208 5120.254 44111 01 0.250 0.204 0.240 0.374 OK
Andrew KniznerC 14346 0.176 110.263 44000 01 0.000 0.196 0.257 0.362 OK
Shay Whitcomb3B 11385 0.132 130.132 42000 10 0.000 0.102 0.110 0.210 OK
Christian KossSS 4814530 0.207 380.243 43110 10 0.333 0.208 0.241 0.336 OK
TEAM TOTALS 40336 55 65 0.182

STL Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Michael McGreevyStarter 27144.34.05 1.2826.4102 5.13222193 5.1 1 2
Riley O'BrienCloser 5954.24.32 1.3109.557 1.00001217 1.0 2 0
George SorianoSetup Man 6453.44.89 1.53610.462 1.01222124 1.0 1 2
Ryne StanekMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 6247.65.11 1.57611.259 1.22111131 1.2 1 1

SF Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Logan WebbStarter 25148.54.24 1.1727.2119 5.164425105 5.1 5 4
Dylan SmithCloser 3428.43.49 1.47913.041 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Trent HarrisSetup Man 1213.33.38 1.27812.919 1.11000232 1.1 2 0
Carson SeymourMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1621.06.43 1.8107.317 1.03330126 1.0 1 3
Jason FoleyMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 1715.05.40 1.8677.212 0.1000108 0.1 0 0

Game Summary

STL wins 7-5


Toronto Blue Jays @ Oakland Athletics

TOR 72-72 (4.03 RPG / 4.29 RA)
6 - 2
OAK 57-87 (4.38 RPG / 5.69 RA)
WINNER: TOR wins 6-2 TARGET: TOR 6 - 2 OAK (TOR) Confidence: 70.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
TOR00200301067
OAK00000200024

TOR Recent Form

Win%0.700
Avg Runs5.3
Avg Allowed3.7
Run Diff16
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

OAK Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs4.6
Avg Allowed4.9
Run Diff-3
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1L

TOR Season Quality

Record72-72
Win%0.500
Run Diff-38
RD/Game-0.264

OAK Season Quality

Record57-87
Win%0.396
Run Diff-188
RD/Game-1.306

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.9732; margin adjustment: -0.4087; applied: True

TOR Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Brett BatemanCF 2510135 0.347 070.412 44110 01 0.250 0.382 0.438 0.450 OK
George SpringerDH 108408102 0.250 14470.325 44000 01 0.000 0.210 0.282 0.375 OK
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B 128486126 0.259 8540.326 43112 10 0.333 0.249 0.309 0.359 OK
Alejandro KirkC 6322862 0.272 8340.337 43010 12 0.000 0.255 0.304 0.364 OK
Kazuma Okamoto3B 137507117 0.231 28810.303 44211 02 0.500 0.235 0.291 0.417 OK
Nathan LukesRF 10535696 0.270 10360.319 44213 01 0.500 0.280 0.312 0.383 OK
Ernie Clement2B 140531146 0.275 9460.301 44000 01 0.000 0.164 0.198 0.255 OK
Andrés GiménezSS 126418101 0.242 8510.288 44110 01 0.250 0.243 0.272 0.339 OK
Myles StrawLF 10925962 0.239 3230.297 44000 02 0.000 0.284 0.355 0.394 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36347 66 211 0.206

OAK Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Henry BolteCF 9734795 0.274 8310.349 44000 01 0.000 0.274 0.337 0.412 OK
Jeff McNeil1B 125417112 0.269 8520.315 44000 00 0.000 0.267 0.308 0.386 OK
Zack Gelof3B 8932784 0.257 17420.321 42000 11 0.000 0.229 0.276 0.464 OK
Lawrence ButlerRF 12940293 0.231 13520.319 44210 00 0.500 0.239 0.314 0.387 OK
Carlos CortesLF 10530077 0.257 8380.323 44112 01 0.250 0.242 0.294 0.363 OK
Max MuncyDH 7523954 0.226 9290.293 43000 11 0.000 0.233 0.288 0.409 OK
Donovan Walton2B 388719 0.218 2100.398 43100 01 0.333 0.215 0.319 0.403 OK
Alika WilliamsSS 6317648 0.273 4150.304 44000 00 0.000 0.272 0.305 0.463 OK
Jonah HeimC 8027658 0.210 12340.267 33000 02 0.000 0.214 0.268 0.381 OK
TEAM TOTALS 35314 22 27 0.129

TOR Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Dylan CeaseStarter 26153.32.29 1.05713.0221 6.03221789 6.0 7 2
Louis VarlandCloser 6466.01.23 1.04511.987 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Tyler RogersSetup Man 6659.01.98 1.2885.335 1.00000013 1.0 0 0
Spencer MilesMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4478.93.08 1.1668.978 1.01001015 1.0 0 0

OAK Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jacob LopezStarter 23102.24.84 1.4979.1103 5.06552892 5.0 8 5
Elvis AlvaradoCloser 4740.74.86 1.45012.255 1.00000113 1.0 1 0
Hogan HarrisSetup Man 6550.64.09 1.77914.682 1.21110224 1.2 2 1
Luis MedinaMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 4859.03.51 1.47512.280 1.10000017 1.1 0 0

Game Summary

TOR wins 6-2


Washington Nationals @ San Diego Padres

WAS 67-79 (5.14 RPG / 5.08 RA)
5 - 6
SD 76-68 (4.2 RPG / 4.14 RA)
WINNER: SD wins 6-5 TARGET: WAS 5 - 6 SD (SD) Confidence: 53.0% enhanced_ml_savant_pitcher_quality_pitcher_opponent_strength
123456789RH
WAS20011010056
SD30000300x67

WAS Recent Form

Win%0.500
Avg Runs5.1
Avg Allowed4.8
Run Diff3
Off Trendhot
Def Trendaverage
Streak4L

SD Recent Form

Win%0.400
Avg Runs3.6
Avg Allowed4.2
Run Diff-6
Off Trendaverage
Def Trendaverage
Streak1W

WAS Season Quality

Record67-78
Win%0.462
Run Diff9
RD/Game0.062

SD Season Quality

Record75-68
Win%0.524
Run Diff8
RD/Game0.056

Season Run Differential Signal

Quality edge: -0.0369; margin adjustment: 0.0; applied: False

WAS Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
James WoodRF 118452121 0.268 30740.395 44000 02 0.000 0.274 0.399 0.489 OK
Abimelec Ortiz1B 3210020 0.200 5110.238 43213 10 0.667 0.118 0.158 0.203 OK
Dylan CrewsLF 9034174 0.217 10360.288 44000 01 0.000 0.218 0.273 0.364 OK
CJ AbramsSS 136518137 0.264 30950.342 44110 00 0.250 0.209 0.277 0.403 OK
Brady House3B 7727668 0.246 10410.304 44110 01 0.250 0.269 0.316 0.403 OK
Daylen LileDH 143543139 0.256 20820.309 44111 01 0.250 0.268 0.326 0.476 OK
Keibert RuizC 9029785 0.286 9460.324 44111 03 0.250 0.310 0.342 0.495 OK
Jorbit Vivas2B 10127064 0.237 3250.330 42000 11 0.000 0.245 0.349 0.342 OK
Jacob YoungCF 11438296 0.251 10430.312 44000 01 0.000 0.266 0.319 0.381 OK
TEAM TOTALS 36336 55 210 0.182

SD Batting — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PlayerPos Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction Deviation
GABHAVGHRRBIOBP PAABHRRBIBBSOAVG AVGOBPSLG
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF 139554155 0.280 20700.345 44211 01 0.500 0.256 0.309 0.514 OK
Jake Cronenworth2B 9031166 0.212 5270.298 44000 00 0.000 0.178 0.255 0.325 OK
Manny Machado3B 139515114 0.221 26770.310 42000 21 0.000 0.259 0.348 0.492 OK
Ty France1B 111376109 0.290 20620.358 43112 10 0.333 0.256 0.324 0.468 OK
Jackson MerrillCF 139540128 0.237 22700.290 44110 00 0.250 0.214 0.263 0.371 OK
Luis CampusanoDH 5716547 0.285 7260.382 43112 10 0.333 0.275 0.360 0.484 OK
Dustin HarrisLF 7229 0.409 010.409 44110 03 0.250 0.288 0.336 0.393 OK
Xander BogaertsSS 136463101 0.218 11520.318 43000 10 0.000 0.211 0.309 0.289 OK
Ethan SalasC 380 0.000 000.000 44111 01 0.250 0.124 0.137 0.233
TEAM TOTALS 36317 66 56 0.226

WAS Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Jake IrvinStarter 1884.55.64 1.4209.387 4.23334393 4.2 3 3
Clayton BeeterCloser 4741.14.60 1.5099.945 0.24330120 0.2 1 3
Orlando RibaltaSetup Man 4538.84.18 1.3409.742 1.10000117 1.1 1 0
Erik TolmanMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 66.41.41 1.09412.79 1.10001121 1.1 1 0

SD Pitching — Actual Season Stats vs Simulation

PitcherRole Actual 2026 Season Simulated Game Model Prediction
GIPERAWHIPK/9SO IPHRERBBSOP IPSOER
Nick PivettaStarter 416.04.50 1.12513.524 5.03440784 5.0 7 4
Mason MillerCloser 5757.31.26 0.87317.4111 1.12110123 1.1 1 1
Adrian MorejonSetup Man 6667.83.32 1.25412.594 1.01001120 1.0 1 0
Bradgley RodriguezMiddle Reliever (High Leverage) 5955.72.10 1.14911.370 1.20001125 1.2 1 0

Game Summary

SD wins 6-5